2020 ZiPS Projections: Pittsburgh Pirates

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Batters

This depth chart is a little uglier than a few days ago thanks to the trade of Starling Marte to the Arizona Diamondbacks. (For Marte’s projection, I command thee peruse the scrivenings of my colleague Jay Jaffe.)

The departure of Marte shakes up the outfield a bit, leaving the Pirates with no obvious “good” option in left field and possibly ensuring that Bryan Reynolds plays center, where ZiPS is not at all a fan of his defense. And this may not be the last major change we see from the Pirates, who appear to be entering a full-scale rebuild. The team has little star power to actually build around and while they have a number of solid players in the lineup — Josh Bell, Reynolds, and Gregory Polanco are all good — they lack an impact player who seems likely to be part of the next good Pirates team, as the Braves had with Freddie Freeman when they entered their rebuild. Reynolds will probably stick around due to his limited service time, but I’d be mildly surprised to see the other two still on the roster this time next year.

Speaking of Polanco, he’s a bit like Dansby Swanson in that he was a top prospect who has just kind of become “a guy.” That’s fine and all, but ZiPS sees him as past the age where there’s real upside remaining; the system used to see superstar potential in Polanco every year until about 2018.

In the short-term, outside of left field, third base stands out as the biggest issue. Colin Moran has been a middling enough hitter to stick at third, but his defense has taken giant steps in the wrong direction, to the extent that I think he’s done as a starter when the team’s next third baseman unceremoniously shoves him off the hot corner.

The offense won’t be Detroit-lousy, but the ceiling is very limited and it’s hard to see a scenario in which they flip the script.

Pitchers

It’s not a good sign when your top projected starter and the top projected reliever won’t actually be on the team for the upcoming season. Jameson Taillon had Tommy John surgery in August, the second such procedure he’s undergone, and will miss the entire 2020 season. Felipe Vázquez faces about two dozen extremely serious criminal charges, including statutory sexual assault, covering multiple incidents and seems unlikely to play baseball again.

Like the offense, neither the rotation nor the bullpen are likely to be horror shows. ZiPS projects the Pirates to have four starting pitchers who’ll hang around league average, but doesn’t envision many scenarios in which they surprise and become a top 10 unit. Chris Archer may have salvaged his career by making his two-seamer walk the plank, leading to a 3.29 FIP in 41 second-half innings pitched, but it’s still risky to count on him and I worry about any pitcher who missed time with shoulder inflammation. ZiPS is sunnier than Steamer is when it comes to Trevor Williams, who the FIP gods brutally abandoned in 2019, but the optimism here is that he’s a mid-rotation starter, not someone who can anchor the rotation.

I feel like a broken record, but the story is largely the same with the bullpen. Keone Kela is the only reliever ZiPS seeing as being obviously better than average, with most of the pen hovering in that 100-to-108 ERA+ range. ZiPS hasn’t given up on Nick Burdi, but I’m not quite sure he actually still exists at this point. If Burdi’s healthy, he’s probably one of the few real breakout candidates on the team.

Prospects

Now if you want a player who ZiPS does like, turn your eyes to Ke’Bryan Hayes, the son of ex-Pirate Charlie Hayes. He’s a very different type of player from his dad, who was never exalted for his defense. Scouts have raved about Ke’Bryan’s glove, and the probability-based zDEF that ZiPS uses agrees whole-heartedly. The +9 defensive projection for Hayes is actually ZiPS trying to be conservative due to the general difficulty in minor-league defensive statistics. If ZiPS trusted zDEF as much as it trusts the metrics used in the majors, Hayes would actually have a projection of +15 at third. He should be the player mentioned above who dispatches Moran, and imminently.

While it would be fun to see a 6-foot-7 shortstop, ZiPS thinks that Oneil Cruz‘s time at the position should be ending in the near-future, projecting him at roughly 11 runs worse than average per 150 defensive games at short. Cole Tucker’s upside is less than Cruz’s, but ZiPS sees him as being a serviceable shortstop in the majors for awhile, projecting him to finish with 1200 hits and 15 WAR in the bigs. In other words, probably about where Kevin Newman, the incumbent shortstop, will end up.

As for the pitching, ZiPS sees Mitch Keller as the primary source of upside and the only pitching prospect in the organization with a career projection north of 10 WAR. That’s not quite as depressing as it sounds, mainly because most of the team’s pitching prospects are in the low minors and thus, it’s a bit of a crapshoot. It’s likely some of those pitchers join Keller across the 10-WAR threshold in the next year or two. ZiPS just isn’t prepared to guess which ones yet.

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Josh Bell B 27 1B 608 527 84 142 32 4 27 101 73 113 1 3
Adam Frazier L 28 2B 577 522 75 146 31 6 10 55 42 73 7 7
Ke’Bryan Hayes R 23 3B 512 458 57 113 29 4 10 51 43 97 10 2
Kevin Newman R 26 SS 589 545 64 150 28 5 9 57 33 74 15 7
Bryan Reynolds B 25 CF 568 513 73 136 29 5 14 65 46 131 4 3
Phillip Evans R 27 3B 504 457 57 114 23 3 12 48 39 82 2 4
Gregory Polanco L 28 RF 399 354 52 87 22 2 16 54 40 96 8 2
Jacob Stallings R 30 C 282 258 30 66 17 0 5 28 17 52 1 1
Cole Tucker B 23 SS 550 494 61 116 24 7 8 47 46 115 14 6
Colin Moran L 27 3B 492 450 50 117 23 2 13 69 34 108 0 2
Sócrates Brito L 27 RF 475 442 55 109 24 7 13 55 28 118 9 5
Pablo Reyes R 26 LF 437 397 49 95 22 3 11 48 32 87 9 7
Hunter Owen R 26 3B 409 372 44 80 17 2 14 47 20 133 2 2
Kevin Kramer L 26 2B 496 445 53 104 26 2 11 52 39 132 5 6
Corban Joseph L 31 2B 469 435 48 113 25 1 8 46 27 56 2 1
Jung Ho Kang R 33 3B 298 265 31 59 13 1 13 41 24 85 1 1
José Osuna R 27 3B 417 381 53 98 30 2 12 54 28 77 3 2
Lonnie Chisenhall L 31 RF 275 248 30 67 17 2 7 35 20 52 3 1
Jason Martin L 24 LF 496 454 54 110 26 6 11 52 35 115 10 8
Mitchell Tolman L 26 2B 468 410 47 85 17 2 6 35 46 124 8 6
Travis Swaggerty L 22 CF 509 459 54 101 16 3 9 38 42 138 17 9
John Ryan Murphy R 29 C 270 248 27 52 11 0 9 27 18 70 0 0
Guillermo Heredia R 29 CF 351 308 39 75 16 1 6 26 29 62 3 4
Jake Elmore R 33 2B 413 370 40 93 17 1 3 29 35 62 5 7
Luke Maile R 29 C 198 181 17 37 9 1 3 18 14 46 1 0
Jared Oliva R 24 CF 488 439 50 96 19 5 6 38 35 125 24 8
Chris Sharpe R 24 LF 464 415 49 89 20 3 10 43 35 143 10 10
Erik González R 28 SS 273 257 28 62 13 2 5 21 11 73 5 3
Melky Cabrera B 35 RF 453 425 47 119 25 2 8 54 23 49 2 1
Robbie Glendinning R 24 SS 365 327 34 68 15 2 7 32 31 127 5 5
Eric Wood R 27 RF 347 313 41 71 18 2 11 44 28 96 3 2
Will Craig R 25 1B 545 486 59 106 23 1 16 60 42 150 2 3
Steven Baron R 29 C 187 171 16 34 5 0 2 11 13 49 0 0
Dylan Busby R 24 3B 402 361 40 64 13 2 13 41 32 172 3 2
Christian Kelley R 26 C 322 291 28 58 11 1 5 24 22 87 0 2
Oneil Cruz L 21 SS 396 365 40 83 18 5 9 40 26 119 9 6
Arden Pabst R 25 C 262 246 21 47 10 2 5 23 11 77 0 2
Jason Delay R 25 C 243 223 21 42 7 1 5 21 13 67 1 0
JB Shuck L 33 RF 318 289 30 69 15 3 3 23 25 38 5 3
Trayvon Robinson B 32 RF 328 296 33 65 13 2 6 26 29 86 7 3
Darnell Sweeney B 29 2B 342 312 34 66 14 3 8 34 24 113 6 7
Cal Mitchell L 21 RF 520 480 50 103 21 2 13 52 32 171 2 3
Deon Stafford R 24 C 329 300 30 57 10 2 6 26 24 111 1 2
Logan Hill R 27 LF 469 423 47 82 19 3 14 51 37 163 2 3
Bligh Madris L 24 RF 478 434 43 91 18 4 8 42 34 117 2 4
Raul Hernandez R 24 C 262 246 21 52 10 1 1 15 11 61 2 1
Bralin Jackson R 26 LF 299 280 23 55 10 1 2 17 16 94 5 5

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Josh Bell .269 .359 .499 126 .230 .297 6.5 -3 2.6 Dan Johnson
Adam Frazier .280 .340 .420 102 .140 .310 5.2 3 2.5 Joe Randa
Ke’Bryan Hayes .247 .314 .393 88 .146 .293 4.6 9 2.2 Jed Lowrie
Kevin Newman .275 .321 .394 90 .119 .305 4.7 1 2.0 Rafael Ramirez
Bryan Reynolds .265 .329 .423 100 .158 .332 5.1 -4 1.7 Andre Ethier
Phillip Evans .249 .315 .392 88 .142 .281 4.3 5 1.6 Brian Buscher
Gregory Polanco .246 .323 .455 105 .209 .293 5.4 0 1.2 John Vander Wal
Jacob Stallings .256 .310 .380 84 .124 .303 4.2 5 1.2 Robert Machado
Cole Tucker .235 .303 .360 77 .126 .291 3.9 1 1.0 Jerry Bertolani
Colin Moran .260 .313 .407 91 .147 .316 4.5 -3 0.8 Casey McGehee
Sócrates Brito .247 .291 .421 87 .174 .309 4.4 5 0.8 Alexis Gomez
Pablo Reyes .239 .300 .393 84 .154 .281 4.0 6 0.7 Wendell Magee
Hunter Owen .215 .279 .384 75 .169 .293 3.6 5 0.7 Joe Mitchell
Kevin Kramer .234 .299 .375 79 .142 .308 3.8 2 0.7 Nick Green
Corban Joseph .260 .303 .377 81 .117 .283 4.2 0 0.7 Jack Wilson
Jung Ho Kang .223 .302 .426 92 .204 .275 4.4 -2 0.7 Reed Secrist
José Osuna .257 .309 .441 98 .184 .295 4.9 -7 0.7 Erik Peterson
Lonnie Chisenhall .270 .326 .440 103 .169 .317 5.3 -1 0.6 George Vukovich
Jason Martin .242 .296 .399 84 .156 .302 4.1 2 0.3 Mike Vento
Mitchell Tolman .207 .293 .302 60 .095 .282 2.9 7 0.3 Nate Frese
Travis Swaggerty .220 .287 .327 64 .107 .295 3.2 5 0.2 Omar Rosario
John Ryan Murphy .210 .264 .363 66 .153 .254 3.3 1 0.2 Charlie Greene
Guillermo Heredia .244 .322 .360 83 .117 .288 4.0 -5 0.1 Rowland Office
Jake Elmore .251 .321 .327 75 .076 .295 3.5 -1 0.0 Dennis Hocking
Luke Maile .204 .264 .315 54 .110 .258 2.9 2 0.0 Tom Nieto
Jared Oliva .219 .287 .326 64 .107 .292 3.4 1 0.0 Aron Weston
Chris Sharpe .214 .285 .349 69 .135 .302 3.2 8 0.0 T.J. Staton
Erik González .241 .274 .366 69 .125 .318 3.5 -1 0.0 Manuel Lee
Melky Cabrera .280 .316 .405 91 .125 .302 4.8 -8 -0.2 Rip Radcliff
Robbie Glendinning .208 .281 .330 63 .122 .316 3.0 -1 -0.2 Mario Ramirez
Eric Wood .227 .294 .403 84 .176 .291 4.1 -4 -0.2 Caleb Stewart
Will Craig .218 .294 .368 76 .150 .281 3.6 2 -0.2 Tommy Everidge
Steven Baron .199 .263 .263 42 .064 .267 2.3 1 -0.3 Chris Tremie
Dylan Busby .177 .257 .332 56 .155 .290 2.8 4 -0.3 Christian Snavely
Christian Kelley .199 .266 .296 50 .096 .266 2.5 2 -0.3 Jose Molina
Oneil Cruz .227 .280 .378 74 .151 .312 3.6 -7 -0.3 Wilson Betemit
Arden Pabst .191 .227 .309 42 .118 .256 2.2 5 -0.3 Matt Pagnozzi
Jason Delay .188 .248 .296 45 .108 .245 2.5 0 -0.5 Jeff Winchester
JB Shuck .239 .300 .343 72 .104 .266 3.6 -3 -0.6 Doug Dascenzo
Trayvon Robinson .220 .291 .338 68 .118 .289 3.4 -3 -0.7 Adam Shabala
Darnell Sweeney .212 .271 .353 65 .141 .304 3.0 -5 -0.8 Frank Kremblas
Cal Mitchell .215 .267 .348 63 .133 .304 3.1 1 -1.1 Corey Myers
Deon Stafford .190 .253 .297 47 .107 .279 2.4 -5 -1.1 Jose Molina
Logan Hill .194 .267 .352 64 .158 .276 3.0 -3 -1.2 John Giudice
Bligh Madris .210 .269 .325 58 .115 .269 2.8 1 -1.3 Kelcey Mucker
Raul Hernandez .211 .249 .272 40 .061 .277 2.3 -8 -1.5 Charlie Greene
Bralin Jackson .196 .242 .261 35 .064 .288 1.9 3 -1.6 Jim Murphy

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Jameson Taillon R 28 9 7 3.73 24 24 135.0 132 56 17 32 117 3.79
Joe Musgrove R 27 11 10 4.14 30 28 154.3 153 71 21 34 141 3.78
Chris Archer R 31 8 7 4.17 26 26 140.3 135 65 19 52 159 3.79
Trevor Williams R 28 9 9 4.24 26 26 146.3 145 69 17 47 115 4.08
Mitch Keller R 24 9 9 4.29 28 28 144.7 143 69 18 59 152 3.92
Felipe Vazquez L 28 4 2 2.67 62 0 64.0 47 19 6 20 89 2.56
Chad Kuhl R 27 6 6 4.33 19 19 95.7 97 46 11 43 83 4.29
Héctor Noesi R 33 7 8 4.63 26 22 130.3 136 67 19 42 104 4.45
Steven Brault L 28 5 5 4.75 28 17 106.0 104 56 13 59 96 4.63
Keone Kela R 27 2 2 3.40 43 0 39.7 30 15 5 15 51 3.38
Chris Stratton R 29 6 7 4.77 31 15 111.3 118 59 16 43 94 4.52
James Marvel R 26 9 12 5.09 29 28 148.7 163 84 20 57 102 4.71
Michael Feliz R 27 4 3 4.05 64 1 66.7 58 30 9 32 87 3.77
Kyle Crick R 27 4 4 3.93 58 0 55.0 46 24 5 33 62 3.91
Brandon Waddell L 26 6 8 4.96 31 17 103.3 104 57 13 59 91 4.77
JT Brubaker R 26 5 7 5.08 22 21 106.3 114 60 16 44 83 4.82
Cody Bolton R 22 6 8 5.03 20 20 87.7 93 49 16 34 75 5.01
Richard Rodriguez R 30 5 4 4.14 64 0 67.3 64 31 10 23 69 4.09
Blake Weiman L 24 2 2 4.03 32 0 44.7 43 20 5 15 41 3.81
Cody Ponce R 26 5 6 4.90 29 11 79.0 84 43 12 31 66 4.66
Sam Howard L 27 5 5 4.89 42 12 92.0 90 50 14 42 91 4.55
Wei-Chung Wang L 28 4 5 4.88 38 9 83.0 89 45 13 32 63 4.85
Nick Burdi R 27 1 1 3.86 12 0 11.7 9 5 1 5 16 2.84
Nik Turley L 30 3 3 5.03 17 7 48.3 48 27 6 29 45 4.73
Clay Holmes R 27 5 6 5.00 38 11 93.7 91 52 10 63 86 4.75
Edgar Santana R 28 2 2 4.42 46 0 53.0 55 26 7 17 41 4.31
Alex McRae R 27 7 10 5.28 30 22 129.7 145 76 18 57 93 4.87
Geoff Hartlieb R 26 3 4 4.48 52 0 70.3 69 35 8 34 69 4.15
Tom Koehler R 34 6 9 5.33 27 22 123.3 129 73 24 58 112 5.30
Beau Sulser R 26 5 6 4.98 33 5 81.3 92 45 11 29 51 4.75
Nick Mears R 23 4 4 4.63 35 0 44.7 39 23 7 25 54 4.48
Montana DuRapau R 28 2 2 4.75 47 1 55.0 52 29 9 25 63 4.38
Dovydas Neverauskas R 27 3 3 4.68 53 0 65.3 60 34 9 36 73 4.39
Nicholas Economos R 25 7 10 5.43 25 19 111.0 120 67 18 55 88 5.19
Brandon Maurer R 29 3 4 4.80 53 0 50.7 50 27 7 26 50 4.54
Yefry Ramírez R 26 5 7 5.49 30 16 98.3 97 60 18 57 101 5.24
Blake Cederlind R 24 3 4 4.94 42 0 54.7 54 30 5 37 46 4.72
Miguel Del Pozo L 27 3 4 4.94 51 0 54.7 54 30 7 29 51 4.57
Cam Vieaux L 26 6 9 5.66 24 24 119.3 134 75 21 55 88 5.38
Pedro Vasquez R 24 6 9 5.65 26 24 116.3 134 73 22 44 79 5.41
Yacksel Ríos R 27 2 3 5.23 54 1 65.3 66 38 9 38 59 4.91
Luis Escobar R 24 3 5 5.72 33 11 83.3 86 53 12 59 72 5.45
Williams Jerez L 28 3 4 5.26 54 0 63.3 66 37 11 32 59 5.09
Matt Eckelman R 26 3 4 5.68 43 2 50.7 54 32 8 32 41 5.51
Sean Keselica L 27 3 4 5.49 37 1 57.3 57 35 6 48 50 5.31
Rookie Davis R 27 3 6 6.18 19 13 71.3 86 49 16 31 51 5.97
Joe Jacques L 25 3 5 5.91 34 2 53.3 55 35 5 49 40 5.66
Sean Brady L 26 6 11 6.20 25 25 135.0 166 93 26 60 74 5.92

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Jameson Taillon 7.8 2.1 1.1 5.7% 20.7% .293 111 90 2.3 Dennis Lamp
Joe Musgrove 8.2 2.0 1.2 5.3% 21.8% .298 100 100 1.9 Bob Tewksbury
Chris Archer 10.2 3.3 1.2 8.6% 26.4% .314 99 101 1.7 Jim Beattie
Trevor Williams 7.1 2.9 1.0 7.5% 18.3% .290 98 102 1.7 Willard Nixon
Mitch Keller 9.5 3.7 1.1 9.3% 24.1% .315 97 104 1.6 Colby Lewis
Felipe Vazquez 12.5 2.8 0.8 7.8% 34.5% .293 155 64 1.5 Dave Righetti
Chad Kuhl 7.8 4.0 1.0 10.1% 19.6% .304 96 104 1.0 Steve Arlin
Héctor Noesi 7.2 2.9 1.3 7.4% 18.4% .297 90 112 0.9 Al Fitzmorris
Steven Brault 8.2 5.0 1.1 12.3% 20.0% .298 87 115 0.5 Jim Rooker
Keone Kela 11.6 3.4 1.1 9.2% 31.3% .275 122 82 0.5 Bobby Howry
Chris Stratton 7.6 3.5 1.3 8.8% 19.2% .305 87 115 0.5 Tommie Sisk
James Marvel 6.2 3.5 1.2 8.6% 15.4% .301 82 123 0.3 Michael Macdonald
Michael Feliz 11.7 4.3 1.2 11.1% 30.2% .310 102 98 0.3 Ernie Camacho
Kyle Crick 10.1 5.4 0.8 13.5% 25.3% .293 106 95 0.3 Clay Bryant
Brandon Waddell 7.9 5.1 1.1 12.5% 19.3% .300 84 120 0.3 Ken Chase
JT Brubaker 7.0 3.7 1.4 9.3% 17.5% .301 82 122 0.2 Jake Joseph
Cody Bolton 7.7 3.5 1.6 8.7% 19.3% .297 82 121 0.2 Shawn Hill
Richard Rodriguez 9.2 3.1 1.3 8.0% 24.0% .297 100 100 0.2 Scott Terry
Blake Weiman 8.3 3.0 1.0 7.9% 21.5% .297 103 97 0.2 Ed Olwine
Cody Ponce 7.5 3.5 1.4 8.9% 18.9% .304 85 118 0.2 Jimmy Speigner
Sam Howard 8.9 4.1 1.4 10.3% 22.3% .298 85 118 0.1 Chris Cumberland
Wei-Chung Wang 6.8 3.5 1.4 8.7% 17.2% .297 85 118 0.1 Clyde Wright
Nick Burdi 12.3 3.9 0.8 10.4% 33.3% .308 108 93 0.1 Tom Henke
Nik Turley 8.4 5.4 1.1 13.1% 20.3% .302 82 121 0.1 James Wray
Clay Holmes 8.3 6.1 1.0 14.5% 19.8% .301 83 120 0.0 Mike Bumstead
Edgar Santana 7.0 2.9 1.2 7.4% 17.8% .296 94 106 0.0 Tom Morgan
Alex McRae 6.5 4.0 1.2 9.7% 15.8% .308 79 127 0.0 Mickey Callaway
Geoff Hartlieb 8.8 4.4 1.0 10.9% 22.1% .308 93 108 -0.1 Jason Szuminski
Tom Koehler 8.2 4.2 1.8 10.5% 20.3% .297 78 128 -0.1 Vern Kennedy
Beau Sulser 5.6 3.2 1.2 8.0% 14.0% .303 83 120 -0.1 Clay Carroll
Nick Mears 10.9 5.0 1.4 12.6% 27.3% .294 89 112 -0.1 Wayne Nix
Montana DuRapau 10.3 4.1 1.5 10.3% 26.0% .303 87 114 -0.1 Heathcliff Slocumb
Dovydas Neverauskas 10.1 5.0 1.2 12.4% 25.1% .300 89 113 -0.2 Roy Smith
Nicholas Economos 7.1 4.5 1.5 10.9% 17.4% .301 76 131 -0.2 Sean White
Brandon Maurer 8.9 4.6 1.2 11.5% 22.1% .303 86 116 -0.2 Jose Segura
Yefry Ramírez 9.2 5.2 1.6 12.7% 22.5% .297 76 132 -0.3 Joshua Hill
Blake Cederlind 7.6 6.1 0.8 14.6% 18.1% .301 84 119 -0.3 Lloyd Allen
Miguel Del Pozo 8.4 4.8 1.2 11.8% 20.7% .301 84 119 -0.4 Brian Adams
Cam Vieaux 6.6 4.1 1.6 10.1% 16.1% .302 73 136 -0.5 Rich Rundles
Pedro Vasquez 6.1 3.4 1.7 8.4% 15.1% .300 73 136 -0.5 Peter Bauer
Yacksel Ríos 8.1 5.2 1.2 12.7% 19.7% .302 79 126 -0.5 Barry Hertzler
Luis Escobar 7.8 6.4 1.3 14.9% 18.2% .301 72 138 -0.6 Eric Parent
Williams Jerez 8.4 4.5 1.6 11.1% 20.6% .302 79 127 -0.6 Todd Rizzo
Matt Eckelman 7.3 5.7 1.4 13.5% 17.3% .301 73 137 -0.6 Rick Greene
Sean Keselica 7.8 7.5 0.9 17.4% 18.1% .302 75 132 -0.6 Brian Adams
Rookie Davis 6.4 3.9 2.0 9.4% 15.5% .308 67 149 -0.7 Chris Beasley
Joe Jacques 6.8 8.3 0.8 18.6% 15.2% .301 70 142 -0.8 Mike Venafro
Sean Brady 4.9 4.0 1.7 9.6% 11.8% .304 67 150 -1.3 Wes Whisler

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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hombremomento
Member
hombremomento

Outside of Moran it seems like the infield is ok enough, but the OF is horrendous. They cant afford to let Josh Bell- the guy who hasn’t played RF since 2017 and had -18.2 DEF in 2019- play other than first base primarily because he actually has some defensive value there. Seems like either pick someone up for cheap or hope someone like Socrates Brito can break out

6er
Member
Member
6er

They owe it to the pitching staff to keep Moran “outside of the stadium”!

maguro
Member
maguro

Bell does have defensive value at first base – strongly negative value!