2020 ZiPS Projections: St. Louis Cardinals

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for eight years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the St. Louis Cardinals.

Batters

As I noted yesterday, the Twins look a lot like a classic Cardinals team in that there are no real superstars but very few real weaknesses, making the chances of an actually lousy season quite small. In fact, the Twins might be a better Cardinals team than the 2020 Cardinals, as there are holes here, starting in the outfield.

No doubt elbow issues played a role in his down season, but Tyler O’Neill’s 2018 Beast Mode was basically missing in 2019 and as a result, his projection drop-off is massive, to the extent that ZiPS is no longer confident he’ll be a league-average corner outfielder. O’Neill’s contact numbers have been absolutely abysmal in the majors, and his 58.6% career contact rate and 21.4% swinging strike rate would be uncomfortably worse than the entire 2019 leaderboards. For reference, the last-place qualifier in contact rate in 2019 was Franmil Reyes at 65.4%. That’s troubling; to get to his pedestrian .258/.307/.454 line in St. Louis so far, O’Neill has had to maintain a .376 BABIP. That isn’t sustainable.

ZiPS sees Tommy Edman, who will see significant time in the outfield, as above-average overall, though regressing a bit from a surprising rookie campaign. He’s not likely to add enough defense to be valuable in an outfield corner, however. ZiPS is over Dexter Fowler, but does see Harrison Bader having a better offensive season, though it still amounts to a worse projection than the one he received entering 2019.

The infield is in better shape. Paul Goldschmidt will likely have some kind of bounce back in 2020, while Paul DeJong and Kolten Wong are both predicted to be solidly above-average, with the former at near All-Star levels. The combination of Yadier Molina and Matt Wieters projects to cobble together another average season.

Overall, it’s hard to escape the impression that Cardinals would have received a real benefit from being more active in free agency. Once Marcell Ozuna is willing to sign a one-year contract, I’m not sure how the Cardinals justify not outbidding the Braves. If your roster looks like it will win 80-90 games, every win is crucial.

In a funny wrinkle, the infield gets two Doug Rader top comps, representing both Rader after his first Gold Glove and Rader at the very end of his career. Hopefully, Matt Carpenter won’t end up retiring as quickly as the Red Rooster did; after being released during spring training in 1977 coming off a .251/.348/.437 season, Rader abruptly retired.

Pitchers

The rotation is an iffier group than St. Louis has had in recent memory. If you were hoping that including ZiPS in the mix would raise the Cardinals’ starting pitchers from their current rank of 17th in our Depth Charts, I sadly have to pull out the rug. At the top, Jack Flaherty projects as elite and will enter the season as a Cy Young contender, but there are a lot of question marks after him.

ZiPS is confident that Miles Mikolas will remain a relatively dependable second or third starter, but it gets worse from there. Adam Wainwright will return, but Waino is 38 and his 2019 was his best season in years. Dakota Hudson does not have the track record to offer any kind of assurance that he can continue to beat his peripherals, a different situation than, say, Julio Teheran, a pitcher who ZiPS feels has a long enough history to be able to knock a half-run off his FIP. Kwang-Hyun Kim is interesting, but his performance in the majors is speculative at this point.

The Cardinals haven’t lost any great pitchers, but those numbers start adding up; Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, Luke Weaver, and Mike Leake is a lot of arms to lose over the years. And that’s before even considering Carlos Martinez, whose future as a starting pitcher is cloudy at the moment. It’s hard to replace this many arms internally and the Cardinals haven’t quite done it yet. I’m disappointed this team didn’t add a starter in the winter.

The bullpen, on the other hand, looks solid, if mostly unspectacular. Even discounting a possible midseason return for Jordan Hicks, it’s a deep group that ZiPS is mostly optimistic about. After projecting Giovanny Gallegos to be a top reliever out of nowhere, the computer certainly isn’t going to abandon him after he actually became one. ZiPS still sees hope for Andrew Miller, which would be nice after two rough seasons.

Prospects

While there’s a lot of doom and gloom in the above sections, this is where the Cardinals could see some pleasant surprises. I’d be strongly tempted to stick Dylan Carlson in the outfield on Opening Day and reduce Fowler to fourth-outfielder status, but I doubt the team actually does that. Andrew Knizner profiles as a legitimate major league starter and I think the Cardinals are at the point where they have to consider what they’ll do if Yadi doesn’t retire after 2020. At some point, you either have to play Knizner or trade him for someone you will play. There’s no advantage for the team to have value they can’t use, and it certainly isn’t beneficial for Knizner to spend his prime hanging around in Triple-A.

The Alex Reyes projection is hardly exciting, but in truth, Reyes is a real “who knows?” at this point. The nice thing about that question is that you sometimes get a positive answer, and Reyes staying healthy and getting his career back on track could be the real bump that the rotation needs. It’s not probable, but he’s just 25 and extremely talented, so it’s not impossible, either. St. Louis may have holes, but they do have depth and Memphis ought to be stacked with a number of role players who wouldn’t fall on their faces as emergency options: I can see Austin Dean, Ramón Urías, Lane Thomas, Edmundo Sosa, and John Nogowski all having significant careers as non-starters.

Don’t be alarmed by the Nolan Gorman projection; ZiPS still sees him as a three-win player at his peak, which ain’t bad for a player who has yet to appear above A-ball and still has contact issues to work through. Gorman has a future, but if you stuck him in the majors in 2020, he’d probably struggle. No official projection for Matthew Liberatore yet, but he’s a great pickup for Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena, both hard players for the Cardinals to use given their rosters and the lack of a full-time DH.

One pedantic note for 2020: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

 

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Paul DeJong R 26 SS 629 563 86 140 30 1 28 86 50 157 6 3
Paul Goldschmidt R 32 1B 635 546 88 143 26 2 27 88 81 158 8 3
Kolten Wong L 29 2B 503 437 56 118 22 4 10 51 43 75 17 4
Matt Carpenter L 34 3B 532 446 73 107 27 2 20 60 75 130 4 1
Tommy Edman B 25 3B 576 532 71 143 24 7 12 53 33 98 19 3
Harrison Bader R 26 CF 487 429 65 102 18 3 17 53 43 144 13 5
Yadier Molina R 37 C 435 400 43 103 19 0 12 57 21 64 6 1
Dylan Carlson B 21 CF 563 500 71 123 24 7 18 66 52 133 13 7
John Nogowski R 27 1B 421 369 50 96 16 1 9 42 43 51 1 2
Andrew Knizner R 25 C 372 338 42 86 14 1 9 36 23 59 3 1
Ramón Urías R 26 2B 408 360 49 88 21 1 9 42 32 88 4 3
Tyler O’Neill R 25 LF 447 408 61 100 17 1 24 67 32 147 6 1
Dexter Fowler B 34 RF 476 406 60 95 19 3 14 55 59 115 7 4
Lane Thomas R 24 CF 442 399 48 92 16 5 12 50 35 125 10 8
Edmundo Sosa R 24 SS 506 471 52 114 20 3 10 46 18 107 4 3
Rangel Ravelo R 28 1B 407 368 47 95 21 1 10 47 31 71 0 1
Austin Dean R 26 LF 502 461 59 121 25 3 16 67 34 100 3 3
José Godoy L 25 C 288 259 28 61 11 0 4 23 20 52 1 1
Matt Wieters B 34 C 298 271 26 61 10 0 10 39 23 65 1 1
Max Schrock L 25 3B 408 374 42 92 16 1 5 31 30 62 7 2
Irving Lopez L 25 2B 423 382 43 85 16 4 7 34 26 85 2 2
Yairo Muñoz R 25 SS 388 363 42 92 16 2 9 41 20 83 10 5
Joe Hudson R 29 C 221 201 19 38 8 0 5 18 17 66 0 0
Julio Rodriguez R 23 C 345 329 31 71 12 1 9 32 14 79 0 0
Justin Toerner L 23 RF 434 378 47 83 11 2 8 33 46 113 11 9
Justin Williams L 24 RF 381 350 42 86 15 1 11 42 26 94 3 2
Evan Mendoza R 24 3B 408 381 38 90 14 3 5 30 23 91 5 2
Nolan Gorman L 20 3B 499 457 53 92 21 4 17 55 36 167 1 3
Kramer Robertson R 25 SS 460 401 49 86 16 2 6 33 45 86 12 9
Oscar Hernández R 26 C 212 195 20 37 8 0 6 18 12 54 1 0
Yariel Gonzalez B 26 3B 458 425 43 100 18 0 8 40 27 79 3 3
Lars Nootbaar L 22 LF 410 374 40 84 10 2 7 32 34 76 3 5
Juan Yepez R 22 RF 352 324 37 70 14 1 9 35 23 86 4 2
Scott Hurst L 24 CF 386 352 35 70 14 2 6 29 28 117 4 4
Elehuris Montero R 21 3B 422 393 43 86 18 1 11 40 24 125 1 1
Conner Capel L 23 LF 467 432 44 97 17 2 8 39 29 110 10 8
Zach Kirtley R 23 1B 421 377 41 79 19 1 7 32 33 113 1 1
Luken Baker R 23 1B 481 437 45 90 22 1 11 44 40 127 1 1
Chris Chinea R 26 1B 386 365 34 80 15 0 8 33 17 108 0 0

 

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Paul DeJong .249 .320 .455 103 .206 .296 5.2 5 3.6 Doug Rader
Paul Goldschmidt .262 .361 .465 118 .203 .321 6.2 3 3.1 Bill White
Kolten Wong .270 .351 .407 102 .137 .307 5.5 6 2.8 Orlando Hudson
Matt Carpenter .240 .354 .444 111 .204 .294 5.6 -2 2.6 Doug Rader
Tommy Edman .269 .315 .408 91 .139 .310 5.0 8 2.6 Bill Spiers
Harrison Bader .238 .321 .413 94 .175 .317 4.8 9 2.5 Shane Mack
Yadier Molina .258 .302 .395 84 .138 .281 4.4 5 1.8 Birdie Tebbetts
Dylan Carlson .246 .321 .430 98 .184 .301 4.9 -3 1.7 Rob Ducey
John Nogowski .260 .344 .382 94 .122 .282 4.7 7 1.4 Steve Christmas
Andrew Knizner .254 .313 .382 84 .127 .285 4.4 2 1.3 Ramon Hernandez
Ramón Urías .244 .325 .383 88 .139 .300 4.4 -1 1.1 Dale Berra
Tyler O’Neill .245 .302 .468 101 .223 .321 5.2 -3 0.9 Pedro Munoz
Dexter Fowler .234 .337 .399 96 .165 .292 4.7 -3 0.8 Michael Tucker
Lane Thomas .231 .297 .386 80 .155 .305 3.9 2 0.8 Xavier Paul
Edmundo Sosa .242 .282 .361 70 .119 .294 3.6 4 0.7 Diory Hernandez
Rangel Ravelo .258 .324 .402 93 .144 .296 4.7 1 0.7 Mike Brown
Austin Dean .262 .315 .434 97 .171 .304 4.9 -5 0.6 Wil Cordero
José Godoy .236 .301 .324 67 .089 .281 3.4 2 0.5 Tom Wieghaus
Matt Wieters .225 .289 .373 75 .148 .260 3.7 0 0.5 Keith McDonald
Max Schrock .246 .306 .334 71 .088 .283 3.8 1 0.4 Peter Ciofrone
Irving Lopez .223 .290 .340 68 .118 .269 3.4 4 0.4 Erik Laseke
Yairo Muñoz .253 .296 .383 80 .129 .306 4.1 -4 0.3 Ronny Cedeno
Joe Hudson .189 .255 .303 48 .114 .254 2.6 6 0.3 Tom Nieto
Julio Rodriguez .216 .249 .340 55 .125 .257 2.9 5 0.2 Jeff Winchester
Justin Toerner .220 .315 .323 71 .103 .292 3.3 6 0.2 Ntema Ndungidi
Justin Williams .246 .300 .389 82 .143 .306 4.1 0 0.2 Andre Ethier
Evan Mendoza .236 .280 .328 62 .092 .298 3.3 5 0.2 Tony Giarratano
Nolan Gorman .201 .267 .376 69 .175 .275 3.3 3 0.1 Ian Stewart
Kramer Robertson .214 .309 .309 66 .095 .259 3.1 -3 0.0 Craig Counsell
Oscar Hernández .190 .243 .323 49 .133 .230 2.7 0 -0.2 Dave Ullery
Yariel Gonzalez .235 .280 .334 63 .099 .272 3.2 0 -0.4 Lipso Nava
Lars Nootbaar .225 .290 .318 63 .094 .265 3.0 4 -0.5 David Howell
Juan Yepez .216 .271 .349 64 .133 .266 3.3 1 -0.6 Gary Johnson
Scott Hurst .199 .260 .301 50 .102 .279 2.5 3 -0.6 Randy Walter
Elehuris Montero .219 .268 .354 64 .135 .292 3.2 -4 -0.7 Chad Spann
Conner Capel .225 .275 .329 60 .104 .283 3.0 2 -1.0 Dan Wagner
Zach Kirtley .210 .283 .321 61 .111 .280 3.1 -1 -1.1 Dustin Yount
Luken Baker .206 .274 .336 62 .130 .264 3.1 0 -1.1 Felix Colon
Chris Chinea .219 .256 .326 54 .107 .289 2.9 -1 -1.4 Jason Restko

 

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Jack Flaherty R 24 13 7 3.13 33 33 189.7 146 66 23 54 236 3.12
Miles Mikolas R 31 11 9 4.04 29 29 164.7 168 74 23 34 130 4.04
Dakota Hudson R 25 12 11 4.31 36 30 169.3 165 81 17 80 127 4.40
Kwang-hyun Kim L 31 11 9 4.00 27 26 157.3 158 70 21 42 131 4.05
Adam Wainwright R 38 9 9 4.44 23 23 127.7 134 63 17 47 109 4.31
Daniel Ponce de Leon R 28 7 7 4.37 27 22 119.3 108 58 14 63 117 4.33
John Gant R 27 7 7 4.21 45 13 104.7 98 49 13 47 96 4.31
Giovanny Gallegos R 28 3 2 3.14 57 0 66.0 52 23 8 17 86 2.92
Austin Gomber L 26 6 6 4.44 25 18 101.3 98 50 15 41 100 4.34
Tommy Parsons R 24 9 10 4.74 26 26 148.0 161 78 23 44 108 4.63
Carlos Martinez R 28 4 3 3.60 63 0 70.0 58 28 7 29 74 3.61
Ryan Helsley R 25 5 4 4.32 35 12 83.3 76 40 10 41 84 4.20
Andrew Miller L 35 5 4 3.44 60 0 49.7 40 19 6 22 63 3.54
Williams Pérez R 29 5 5 4.59 18 17 80.3 82 41 10 32 63 4.42
Jordan Hicks R 23 4 3 3.60 61 0 60.0 50 24 5 29 65 3.55
Anthony Shew R 26 5 6 4.73 19 18 97.0 103 51 14 34 77 4.52
Austin Warner L 26 7 8 4.89 24 23 130.7 138 71 20 53 105 4.78
John Brebbia R 30 4 3 3.74 61 0 67.3 59 28 9 23 75 3.71
Jacob Patterson L 24 6 5 4.00 54 1 63.0 59 28 6 27 61 3.77
Angel Rondon R 22 7 9 5.02 25 25 132.7 138 74 21 63 110 5.00
Alex Reyes R 25 3 3 4.74 15 10 49.3 44 26 6 36 55 4.72
Ryan Meisinger R 26 3 3 4.22 34 2 53.3 49 25 7 20 54 3.99
Chris Ellis R 27 6 7 4.90 35 14 104.7 105 57 14 52 91 4.67
Alex Fagalde R 26 7 9 5.08 23 22 111.7 122 63 18 44 80 5.02
Génesis Cabrera L 23 6 8 5.03 31 21 118.0 120 66 19 59 114 4.84
Tyler Webb L 29 2 2 4.19 60 1 58.0 53 27 7 23 57 3.97
Michael Baird R 24 3 4 4.81 18 8 48.7 51 26 8 18 43 4.66
Tony Cingrani L 30 1 1 4.00 40 0 36.0 32 16 5 16 41 4.04
Kodi Whitley R 25 4 3 4.32 50 1 66.7 65 32 8 29 62 4.19
Bryan Dobzanski R 24 4 4 4.31 48 1 56.3 52 27 5 35 53 4.32
Tommy Layne L 35 2 2 4.19 33 0 34.3 33 16 4 15 30 4.26
Luke Gregerson R 36 1 1 4.26 35 0 31.7 32 15 4 11 26 4.22
Roel Ramirez R 25 4 4 4.73 43 5 70.3 71 37 9 35 63 4.54
Dominic Leone R 28 1 1 4.34 61 0 66.3 60 32 10 31 76 4.25
Junior Fernandez R 23 3 3 4.35 57 0 68.3 59 33 7 45 76 4.26
Seth Elledge R 24 5 5 4.60 49 3 62.7 59 32 8 35 65 4.44
Connor Jones R 25 3 4 5.02 35 11 80.7 83 45 7 59 58 5.06
Rob Kaminsky L 25 2 2 4.38 42 0 51.3 50 25 4 27 43 4.10
Zac Rosscup L 32 1 1 4.43 23 0 22.3 19 11 3 16 29 4.48
Brett Cecil L 33 2 2 4.58 42 0 35.3 37 18 5 14 29 4.57
John Nogowski L 27 0 0 7.36 3 0 3.7 5 3 1 4 1 9.45
Patrick Dayton L 24 2 2 4.58 42 0 59.0 60 30 7 26 47 4.45
Edgar Gonzalez R 23 8 11 5.52 25 22 104.3 110 64 11 80 77 5.37
Johan Oviedo R 22 8 11 5.50 27 26 127.7 127 78 15 100 113 5.29
Harold Arauz R 25 6 8 5.54 22 17 100.7 115 62 18 39 65 5.38
Jesus Cruz R 25 5 6 5.23 46 4 63.7 56 37 10 51 79 5.14
Jake Woodford R 23 7 10 5.53 25 25 133.3 141 82 23 71 107 5.42
Ronnie Williams R 24 4 5 5.04 44 0 55.3 55 31 6 38 45 5.02
Chris Beck R 29 2 3 5.16 43 0 52.3 54 30 8 27 42 5.11
Merandy Gonzalez R 24 3 5 5.74 35 7 62.7 68 40 9 44 46 5.69

 

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Jack Flaherty 11.2 2.6 1.1 7.0% 30.8% .276 131 76 4.4 Roger Clemens
Miles Mikolas 7.1 1.9 1.3 4.9% 18.8% .292 102 98 2.2 Bob Friend
Dakota Hudson 6.8 4.3 0.9 10.7% 17.0% .287 96 105 1.8 Bump Hadley
Kwang-hyun Kim 7.5 2.4 1.2 6.3% 19.6% .294 103 97 2.2 Jake Miller
Adam Wainwright 7.7 3.3 1.2 8.4% 19.5% .306 93 108 1.1 Sid Hudson
Daniel Ponce de Leon 8.8 4.8 1.1 12.0% 22.2% .287 94 106 1.1 Earl Wilson
John Gant 8.3 4.0 1.1 10.3% 21.1% .287 98 102 1.0 Don Stanhouse
Giovanny Gallegos 11.7 2.3 1.1 6.4% 32.3% .289 131 76 0.9 Aaron Heilman
Austin Gomber 8.9 3.6 1.3 9.3% 22.7% .296 93 108 0.9 Terry Mulholland
Tommy Parsons 6.6 2.7 1.4 6.8% 16.7% .298 87 115 0.8 Joe Coleman
Carlos Martinez 9.5 3.7 0.9 9.8% 25.0% .280 114 87 0.7 Alan Mills
Ryan Helsley 9.1 4.4 1.1 11.2% 23.0% .292 95 105 0.7 Bart Johnson
Andrew Miller 11.4 4.0 1.1 10.3% 29.6% .291 120 84 0.6 Kevin Tolar
Williams Pérez 7.1 3.6 1.1 9.1% 17.8% .295 90 112 0.6 Dennis Burtt
Jordan Hicks 9.8 4.4 0.8 11.2% 25.0% .288 114 87 0.6 Mark Wohlers
Anthony Shew 7.1 3.2 1.3 8.0% 18.1% .301 87 115 0.6 Michael Macdonald
Austin Warner 7.2 3.7 1.4 9.1% 18.1% .299 84 119 0.5 Jake Chapman
John Brebbia 10.0 3.1 1.2 8.1% 26.5% .289 110 91 0.5 Manny Sarmiento
Jacob Patterson 8.7 3.9 0.9 9.8% 22.2% .299 103 97 0.3 Ed Olwine
Angel Rondon 7.5 4.3 1.4 10.6% 18.4% .296 82 122 0.3 Ed Wojna
Alex Reyes 10.0 6.6 1.1 15.9% 24.2% .297 87 115 0.3 J.R. Richard
Ryan Meisinger 9.1 3.4 1.2 8.8% 23.7% .292 98 102 0.2 Jerry Reed
Chris Ellis 7.8 4.5 1.2 11.1% 19.4% .297 84 119 0.2 Rube Fischer
Alex Fagalde 6.4 3.5 1.5 8.8% 16.0% .297 81 123 0.2 Jake Joseph
Génesis Cabrera 8.7 4.5 1.4 11.1% 21.4% .303 82 122 0.2 Blaine Boyer
Tyler Webb 8.8 3.6 1.1 9.2% 22.9% .289 98 102 0.2 Javier Lopez
Michael Baird 8.0 3.3 1.5 8.4% 20.1% .303 86 117 0.2 John Tsitouris
Tony Cingrani 10.3 4.0 1.3 10.3% 26.3% .293 103 97 0.2 Tippy Martinez
Kodi Whitley 8.4 3.9 1.1 9.9% 21.2% .300 95 105 0.1 Ray Herbert
Bryan Dobzanski 8.5 5.6 0.8 13.7% 20.7% .296 95 105 0.1 Anthony Chavez
Tommy Layne 7.9 3.9 1.0 9.9% 19.9% .290 98 102 0.1 Marshall Bridges
Luke Gregerson 7.4 3.1 1.1 8.1% 19.1% .295 97 104 0.0 Fred Gladding
Roel Ramirez 8.1 4.5 1.2 11.1% 19.9% .302 87 115 0.0 Barry Hertzler
Dominic Leone 10.3 4.2 1.4 10.8% 26.5% .296 95 105 0.0 Roy Corcoran
Junior Fernandez 10.0 5.9 0.9 14.5% 24.4% .294 95 106 0.0 Joe Hudson
Seth Elledge 9.3 5.0 1.1 12.4% 23.0% .300 90 112 0.0 Marc Pisciotta
Connor Jones 6.5 6.6 0.8 15.4% 15.1% .299 82 122 0.0 Walt Masterson
Rob Kaminsky 7.5 4.7 0.7 11.8% 18.8% .301 94 106 0.0 Mike Cosgrove
Zac Rosscup 11.7 6.4 1.2 15.7% 28.4% .302 93 108 0.0 Marshall Bridges
Brett Cecil 7.4 3.6 1.3 9.1% 18.8% .302 90 111 -0.1 Randy Tomlin
John Nogowski 2.5 9.8 2.5 20.0% 5.0% .286 56 179 -0.1 Brian Adams
Patrick Dayton 7.2 4.0 1.1 9.9% 17.9% .296 90 111 -0.1 Chubby Dean
Edgar Gonzalez 6.6 6.9 0.9 15.9% 15.3% .303 75 134 -0.3 Jason Phillips
Johan Oviedo 8.0 7.0 1.1 16.4% 18.6% .300 75 134 -0.3 Kevin Ritz
Harold Arauz 5.8 3.5 1.6 8.6% 14.3% .298 74 135 -0.4 Mark Cahill
Jesus Cruz 11.2 7.2 1.4 17.1% 26.5% .299 79 127 -0.4 Jeff Smith
Jake Woodford 7.2 4.8 1.6 11.7% 17.6% .294 74 134 -0.4 Ken Pumphrey
Ronnie Williams 7.3 6.2 1.0 14.7% 17.4% .295 82 122 -0.4 Lloyd Allen
Chris Beck 7.2 4.6 1.4 11.4% 17.7% .293 80 125 -0.5 Bucky Brandon
Merandy Gonzalez 6.6 6.3 1.3 14.8% 15.4% .301 72 140 -0.6 Lloyd Allen

 

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2020 due to injury, and players who were released in 2019. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in June to form a ska-cowpunk Luxembourgian bubblegum pop-death metal band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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sportznut3
Member

I get that Martinez’s role is in question, but he’s started 50 games the last 3 seasons (none last year), and has been rumored to be in the mix for the rotation this year. I’m surprised he didn’t get any starts in the projection, although I would fully expect a low endurance rating. He even shows up on the DC in both roles.