2020’s Most Irreplaceable Players
The 2020 major league season is about 20% done, which might feel strange given that the season isn’t quite two weeks old, but it’s just one of the many odds things about this year. We’re just three weeks from the trade deadline and the basic contours of who the contenders and the also-rans are has become clear in a shockingly small number of games. That shortened slate has also seen a number of key players go down with significant injuries. The threat of COVID-19 looms large over any discussion of missed time this season, but sadly, more familiar maladies will also take their toll — Justin Verlander is still weeks from a potential return from a right forearm strain, Shohei Ohtani likely won’t pitch again this season after leaving Sunday’s game with a forearm strain of his own, and Mike Soroka joined the list with a painful tear to his Achilles tendon Monday evening, ending his 2020 season before it had really begun. Even Max Scherzer exited Wednesday night’s action with a sore hamstring, though thankfully it appears minor.
How big a loss for the Braves was Soroka? With him still in the rotation, the ZiPS projection system had the Atlanta Braves with an 89.5% chance of making baseball’s expanded 16-team playoffs. Without Soroka, that number drops to 81.5%, nearly doubling the probability that Atlanta watches the playoffs from home. How does that eight percentage points rank among baseball’s stars? As I do every season, I asked ZiPS to re-project league standings with individual star players removed from their team’s rosters.
This isn’t a WAR ranking, which would be kind of boring. Teams whose playoff fortunes are most up in the air, especially those without sufficient depth, tend to be the ones that get in the most trouble when they lose a key player due to injury. The combination of good early results and deep rosters has left a few teams at the top of the food chain — the Braves, Dodgers, Athletics, Twins, and Yankees — without a single player in the top 25 in playoff leverage. That’s not to say that losing Mookie Betts or Cody Bellinger wouldn’t be a huge loss for the Dodgers, but the team has good backup options and it would take losing both to seriously change the team’s playoff odds.
With Wednesday night’s games in the books, here are the ZiPS-projected playoff probabilities for every team:
| Team | Playoff Probability |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 97.4% |
| New York Yankees | 94.3% |
| Minnesota Twins | 90.7% |
| Chicago Cubs | 85.4% |
| Oakland Athletics | 81.9% |
| Atlanta Braves | 81.5% |
| Houston Astros | 77.5% |
| Cleveland Indians | 76.6% |
| San Diego Padres | 74.3% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 72.4% |
| Chicago White Sox | 69.1% |
| Washington Nationals | 69.1% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 56.0% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 53.1% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 52.6% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 52.2% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 49.6% |
| Colorado Rockies | 45.6% |
| New York Mets | 45.0% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 44.2% |
| Boston Red Sox | 42.4% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 31.8% |
| Texas Rangers | 27.2% |
| Miami Marlins | 24.1% |
| Detroit Tigers | 23.2% |
| San Francisco Giants | 22.9% |
| Kansas City Royals | 18.6% |
| Seattle Mariners | 17.1% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 15.1% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 8.9% |
Hey, the Orioles passed someone!
After a lot of simulations, here are the top 10 players teams can ill-afford to lose, as ranked by the loss in playoff probability in percentage points.
1. Jacob deGrom, New York Mets (-11.0%)
The Mets brought in Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha this the offseason to add depth to the rotation, depth that proved immediately necessary when Noah Syndergaard having Tommy John surgery. Marcus Stroman’s torn calf has tested that depth even further, though the team received the good news that he’s already recovered sufficiently to be throwing simulated games. Even assuming Stroman comes back fine in the near future, though, losing deGrom, who ZiPS projects to finish second in the majors in WAR among pitchers, would be difficult to overcome. deGrom can dominate any game he’s in and despite the oddball offseason, his velocity’s actually increased by a couple miles per hour. The Mets can’t replace deGrom’s performance because, literally, nobody can.
2. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (-10.9%)
Mike Trout tends not to do well in this list because usually when I run it, the Angels are already spiraling out of playoff contention. A sixteen-team playoffs gives the Angels a lot of room for error, which they need given their 4-8 start. The Ohtani injury hurts the team further; while his comeback as a pitcher was not guaranteed, his upside possibility was something no other team’s pitching staff can match. Completing the Joc Pederson trade would have given the Angels more outfield depth, but as it is, losing Trout would be the most difficult loss to overcome.
3. Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals (-9.7%)
This is why Scherzer’s sore hamstring is so worrisome. Stephen Strasburg hasn’t made his 2020 debut and Joe Ross’ opt-out means he never will, leaving Washington’s rotation looking like the shelves of your neighborhood convenience store the day before a hurricane or blizzard. Right now, the projections are assuming a shorter next start for Scherzer; if his hamstring tweak turns out to be worse, it will become a major headache for the team. It hasn’t helped that at 4-5, the Nats haven’t been a particularly hot team in the early going.
4. Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies (-9.5%)
Nola’s not the most highly paid Phillies player, but he’s the most crucial right now. Losing Nola (or Zack Wheeler) likely results in Spencer Howard or Nick Pivetta taking their playing time. Pivetta’s fine, but he’s a fifth starter and while Howard’s a terrific prospect, he also has very little experience in the high minors.
5. Germán Márquez, Colorado Rockies (-9.5%)
The Rockies have horrifyingly thin depth on the offensive side past Brendan Rodgers, but they could probably play Aaron Rodgers in the infield and not have problems as long as the pitching continues to barely allow three runs a game. There’s no bigger fan of Germán Márquez than ZiPS; the projections regularly forecast him in the top 10 for rest-of-career pitching WAR. With 1.89 ERA and 0.8 WAR in three starts, he’s certainly pulled his share of the load this season. Colorado’s not overflowing with pitching depth and losing Márquez could derail their early success.
6. Juan Soto, Washington Nationals (-9.1%)
Losing Scherzer would be a body blow; losing Juan Soto wouldn’t be much better. Soto’s season was delayed by a positive COVID-19 test; he just made his season debut last night, going 2-for-4 with an RBI. The Nats went eight games without Soto’s services, something they’d very much like to not repeat.
7. Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians (-8.9%)
Cleveland is one of the teams most reliant on its front-line talent, so it’s not surprising for Shane Bieber to make the top 10 with the team hovering around .500. Bieber’s first three starts have made even his 2019 breakout look tame by comparison. He’s struck out 35 batters in 21 innings against just three walks and two runs allowed. He’s not likely to be quite this good — if he is, you might want to pencil him in for an armload of Cy Young awards — but he’s Clevelands’ most important player even if he’s “just” as good as 2019. Two of his teammates also make the top 25.
8. J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies (-8.5%)
You can argue that Yasmani Grandal is the best catcher in baseball, but the White Sox have the better backup in James McCann. J.T. Realmuto is more crucial to the Phillies than Bryce Harper and if they’re smart, they will make sure to sign him to an extension before he can negotiate with other teams.
9. Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals (-8.4%)
St. Louis does have some spare rotation options hanging around, but the sheer awesomeness of Flaherty is enough to put him high on this list. And the team doesn’t have as many extra pitchers hanging around as it appeared to a few weeks ago, with Miles Mikolas out of the year and Carlos Martínez on the Injured List for a currently undisclosed reason. Austin Gomber or Génesis Cabrera or even some kind of three-inning special from Alex Reyes wouldn’t be the end of the world, but having Flaherty is better.
10. Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox (-8.4%)
At 4-8, the Red Sox are reeling, but they’re also currently only 2 1/2 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. Losing Xander Bogaerts, on top of the offseason loss of Betts, would make the team’s disappearing chances — down 15 points from the start of the season — evaporate at an even quicker pace. The team’s rotation depth is also a serious concern, but the “good news” is that no individual starter is likely strong enough to affect the team’s playoff odds significantly by their absence. Yes, that’s rather depressing for good news.
Here’s a handy-dandy table with the full top 25:
| Rank | Player | Team | Playoffs With | Playoffs Without | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob deGrom | New York Mets | 45.0% | 34.0% | -11.0% |
| 2 | Mike Trout | Los Angeles Angels | 49.6% | 38.7% | -10.9% |
| 3 | Max Scherzer | Washington Nationals | 69.1% | 59.4% | -9.7% |
| 4 | Aaron Nola | Philadelphia Phillies | 56.0% | 46.5% | -9.5% |
| 5 | German Marquez | Colorado Rockies | 45.6% | 36.1% | -9.5% |
| 6 | Juan Soto | Washington Nationals | 69.1% | 60.0% | -9.1% |
| 7 | Shane Bieber | Cleveland Indians | 76.6% | 67.7% | -8.9% |
| 8 | J.T. Realmuto | Philadelphia Phillies | 56.0% | 47.5% | -8.5% |
| 9 | Jack Flaherty | St. Louis Cardinals | 52.2% | 43.8% | -8.4% |
| 10 | Xander Bogaerts | Boston Red Sox | 42.4% | 34.0% | -8.4% |
| 11 | Trevor Story | Colorado Rockies | 45.6% | 37.4% | -8.2% |
| 12 | Stephen Strasburg | Washington Nationals | 69.1% | 61.1% | -8.0% |
| 13 | Alex Bregman | Houston Astros | 77.5% | 69.6% | -7.9% |
| 14 | Nolan Arenado | Colorado Rockies | 45.6% | 38.0% | -7.6% |
| 15 | Christian Yelich | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.6% | 45.1% | -7.5% |
| 16 | Francisco Lindor | Cleveland Indians | 76.6% | 69.2% | -7.4% |
| 17 | Zach Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies | 56.0% | 49.0% | -7.0% |
| 18 | Anthony Rendon | Los Angeles Angels | 49.6% | 42.6% | -7.0% |
| 19 | Trevor Bauer | Cincinnati Reds | 53.1% | 46.4% | -6.7% |
| 20 | Michael Clevinger | Cleveland Indians | 76.6% | 70.0% | -6.6% |
| 21 | Carlos Correa | Houston Astros | 77.5% | 71.0% | -6.5% |
| 22 | Brandon Woodruff | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.6% | 46.1% | -6.5% |
| 23 | Jon Gray | Colorado Rockies | 45.6% | 39.2% | -6.4% |
| 24 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | 74.3% | 68.1% | -6.2% |
| 25 | Yu Darvish | Chicago Cubs | 85.4% | 79.3% | -6.1% |
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
I was surprised to see Trevor Bauer instead of Sonny Gray for the Reds
It’s not math, but just based on watching it is hard to believe that losing Luis Robert wouldn’t be a huge blow to the White Sox’s chances. He has 1 WAR already through just 12 games and is among the top ten players in the AL in runs above replacement by offense, defense, and baserunning. They would be replacing him with Adam Engel who has been less awful over the last 80 games or so, but has 0.6 career WAR in over 1000 PA, and Leury Garcia who has been worth 1.1 WAR over 1500 PA. The difference between Robert and those two is likely to be almost 2 wins over the next 48 games, and that could mean a lot for a White Sox team that looks to be right on the edge of the playoffs this year.
I think he doesn’t show up on the list because the sample size on him isn’t big enough to convince ZIPS just yet that he is as valuable as he has appeared so far and because even though the White Sox occupy the eight and final spot in the AL on your odds table above, they are 20 percentage points ahead of the 9th place team in the AL, the Angels. But I think the powerhouse that has been the White Sox offense so far looks a whole lot more pedestrian without him batting leadoff and playing CF.
It looks like zips projects Robert to be worth 1.1 WAR over the rest of the season, so not quite his current pace but still very, very good. I’d assume the regression is in part due to his being a rookie but I’d imagine it takes his strong minor leagues track record into account. The bigger factor is that anyone (even Trout) is expect to regress from a greatest season of all time, especially with .484 BABIP. Besides the surrounding talent, I imagine zips also thinks the White Sox could make the playoffs without Robert due to their current lead in the standings (1.5 games up on the first team out Orioles).
Better than 1 in 7. Orioles’ playoff odds are about what the Phillies’ were in March. I’m already buying playoff tickets (though I don’t understand why the page to buy these is in Russian and why they only accepted Bitcoin. Coin shortage?)
Chris Davis is set to inherit $1 trillion, but unfortunately, he can’t get it out of Baltimore without help from someone on the outside with a bank account and a social security number…
Better get yourself an extended warranty on your vehicle before time runs out.
An excellent idea for an article.
The Padres would arguably be the worst team in their division without Tatis. But im glad the computers think Bregman is more important to the stacked Astros. Also the Angels miss the playoffs with or without Trout and Rendon so maybe i just don’t get this one.
The Astros have questionable depth, at this point. The rotation is a mess, Alvarez has been hurt (and now Springer), and the bullpen is a train wreck.
Strangely I think San Diego has a lot more depth – they just sent Naylor down and they have an endless supply of power arms on the way.
Great article! My first two guesses were DeGrom and Trout, and I felt unreasonably proud for having selected the best pitcher in the National League and the best player in baseball.
My 3rd pick was Lindor, so I only overlooked like 13 guys (including 3 Nationals, btw – how odd that a team so good is so dependent on each of its stars).
Nats fans have been complaining about Rizzo’s (or the ownership’s) penchant for stars and scrubs rosters for years, but flags fly forever so *shrug*
Meanwhile, the Giants brass has assembled a roster built around a new strategy called “Scrubs & Scrubs.”
You misspelled “Pirates.”
Nats are the classic stars and scrubs roster design so it makes a lot of sense that they look that way, imo, and are one of the first teams I would list when trying to think about teams that are overly dependent on a few roster spots for success.
The past two years, the Mets have won a smaller proportion of games started by deGrom than by the rest of the staff combined. The correlation between his talent and the team’s success is, sadly, still theoretical.
Using the binomial distribution one can show that a starter who improved the 2018-2020 Mets’ chance of winning would have DeGrom’s record in game’s started (30-37) or worse one out of five times. Basically ignoring DeGrom’s stats, I’d already be hesitant to conclude anything substantial from that record. Looking at his stats and how much worse the offense is in his starts, I’m more than confident ignoring it. Unless you have a good hypothesis of why the Mets offense performs 22% better when he doesn’t start.
Why does the Mets offense perform 22% better when DeGrom doesn’t start? Clubhouse tradition. Gotta spread the wins around to the other starters.
In 2017, after DeGrom received 15 wins and no other pitcher broke into double digits, the team decided to be more equitable and spread the wins around.
In 2018, DeGrom had 10 wins, Wheeler had 12 wins, and Syndergaard had 13 wins.
In 2019, DeGrom, Wheeler, and Matz tied for 11 wins each.
In 2020, so far DeGrom, Porcello, Peterson, Wacha, and Lugo all have 1 win each. Since Matz has 2 losses already, the team may wait for him to get a win before giving any of the other pitchers another win.
Some might say this is not a good plan, that it isn’t even a plan at all for a competitive baseball team. But it is the Mets, not a competitive baseball team, and so far this tradition has stuck around like many other fine Mets traditions.
Surprised Miguel Rojas didn’t make the list as he prevented his team from losing about 5-6 games already
I was surprised that even with their strong start, no A’s players made the list. As shown by their 2nd base situation, they have very little infield depth so if Chapman, Semian or Olson goes down it would be a big blow.
Is there a flip side to this? A player, who if they got injured, would improve their teams playoff odds?
Perhaps Pujols?
Oscar the Grouch, C, Houston Astros- if he gets hurt his trashcan is free to use again.
Not gonna lie, been so out of the loop didn’t even realize the Mets signed Stroman
Traded for him last year.
Love this piece! I wonder if MLB has considered any scenarios where they would cancel more regular season games, but still not cancel the postseason. Can I confirm, the premise is “losing” these players for the whole rest of the regular season, correct?
I’d like to also see (maybe in an update of this article in early September?) who the most irreplaceable player is for each team. I’m guessing the Yankees’ is Gerrit Cole.
Can you run this for the Braves pre-Soroka injury?
It’s kind of in the article. I’m not sure if you meant a full simulation with Soroka for other teams as well or if that even changes the math.
“With him still in the rotation, the ZiPS projection system had the Atlanta Braves with an 89.5% chance of making baseball’s expanded 16-team playoffs. Without Soroka, that number drops to 81.5%, nearly doubling the probability that Atlanta watches the playoffs from home. ”
So an 8% drop. Or about what Strasburg is to the Nats.
Flaherty is the first guy I thought of. He’s probably the only above-average player on the team. I think the extenuating circumstances around the Cardinals have essentially eliminated them, though, so it probably doesn’t matter. It’ll be at least two weeks between games for them, which is a long enough layoff that they could be rusty, which isn’t good news for a team that is already way behind the Cubs and is losing pitchers like car keys.
As a Cubs fan, I am shocked that Darvish is on this list and not Baez. Cubs currently have a decent replacement for Darvish (Quintana is likely to the bullpen). But who replaces Baez gold glove defense and potentially MVP bat?