2021 Draft Notebook: Setting the Odds for 1-1
With six weeks until the draft, things are more muddled than ever at the top. If anything, the range of possibilities is continuing to widen. There is still an entire college postseason left to go, as well as what are sure to be some difficult signability discussions that move individual needles significantly. In a dramatic turn of events, it suddenly looks as if the Pittsburgh Pirates are focused on positions players over pitchers with the first pick in the draft. Instead of doing a mock this early (we’ll have one soon, though more to share information than to try to pull a Kreskin with so much time until Day One), I decided to set the current odds for the first overall pick.
The Odds
Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA): 3-1
“Marcelo Mayer or Jordan Lawlar?” is the most pressing question for those considering the first pick in the draft, and when I polled top scouts and executives, there was a nearly 50/50 split in their responses. “Mayer should be 1-1, and I don’t think it should really be a conversation,” said one scouting executive. “In terms of pound-for-pound talent, he’s the number one guy. Left-handed, good stick, future power, and plays up the middle.” Among his detractors, there are some questions concerning the up-the-middle aspect of Mayer’s game. While he makes every play and at times can be a flashy defender with plus hands, smooth transfers, a well above-average arm and excellent instincts, he’s also a big-framed kid with below-average run times coming out of a slightly awkward gait. For scouts concerned about this, Mayer becomes a future third baseman; for those who believe in all of the defensive tools beyond the twitch, he’s more comparable to Carlos Correa or Corey Seager.
Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (TX): 3-1
Lawlar was plagued by some swing-and-miss issues early this spring, but he finished the year strong while producing hard contact to all fields and going a perfect 32-for-32 in stolen base attempts. While it’s hard to find a weakness in his game, some point out that he also lacks the single, overwhelming tool you often find in top picks. Everything in Lawlar’s scouting reports earns 50-60 grades, but some would like to see that one plus-plus attribute you can hang your hat on when the bonus discussions reach the $8 million mark. Some scouts also note that he will be almost 19 years old by the time teams make their selections, while the power requires more than a bit of dreaming and projection to think it’ll reach above average. Still, this is a slam dunk defensive shortstop who can run and hit and showed a mature understanding of the strike zone for a high schooler, with one evaluator calling him one of the safest high school players he has seen in years.
Henry Davis, C, Louisville: 5-1
Davis has continued to creep up the draft boards of teams looking for a college bat they can believe in. Offensively, he checks every box. His swing decisions are at a big-league level right now and there’s a feel for contact to go with above-average power. All-in-all, scouts’ median expectation involves him hitting .280 with walks and 20-plus bombs. That’s All-Star level production for a catcher, but not everyone is convinced Davis can stay behind the plate. His throwing arm is one of the best in this year’s class — he’s thrown out nearly half of opposing runners this spring — but teams are starting to question the ultimate value of cutting down the running game when big league clubs are currently making well under one steal attempt per game. Beyond the cannon, Davis is a below-average defender with inconsistent footwork and hard hands, and while he has the tools to give you acceptable defense in an outfield corner, the value of the bat dissipates considerably with a slide that far down the defensive spectrum.
Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt: 10-1
Six weeks ago, Leiter was the overwhelming favorite to go 1-1 to the Pirates, but as the season has worn on, scouts have found some of the holes in his game. His numbers on the season are still remarkable, but naysayers point to the 10 home runs allowed and a walk rate of nearly four per nine over 56.1 conference innings. He has a fastball that often plays better than its above-average velocity due to its shape and spin, as well as two plus breakers to go to, but the fastballs and breakers comprise 95% of his pitches thrown this year, with his changeup becoming more and more of a rarity. While he commands his curveball and slider very well, the fastball is more of a spray in the zone pitch, and scouts have always been concerned with his smallish frame holding up over the course of a big league season. Still, this is the best overall starting pitcher in the draft, and it’s difficult to imagine him getting past the first three picks.
Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt: 25-1
Much like his fastball velocity, Rocker’s draft status has been on a bit of a roller coaster ride this spring. Seen by many as the top player in the class before the season started, his chances of going first overall have slipped dramatically due to wild fluctuations in velocity, especially after accumulating triple-digit pitch counts in previous starts. On a good day, Rocker will touch 98 with above-average command of both his fastball and a bat-missing power breaker, but he seems to have settled into sitting 92-95 while touching 96 as the Commodores head into the postseason. The best version of Rocker would still be in play for Pittsburgh, but that version just hasn’t been seen as much as this spring the Pirates would likely prefer.
Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS (GA): 75-1
A late-comer to the mix, House has rebounded from a rough-but-abbreviated 2020 summer showing to re-establish himself as one of the best high school hitters in the country. Some scouts have put the rare plus hit/plus power combo on him, while also pointing to a big frame and fringy run tool that projects better at third base than shortstop, where his 70-grade arm should serve him well. House feels like a big long-shot for number one overall, but his name is coming up in conversations just enough (as opposed to not at all) to put him on the board. Somewhere in the six to 10 range feels like the much more realistic expectation.
It’s only late May, and the odds could change dramatically with a full college postseason to get additional looks at players, but in the end, that might not be the best news for the likes of Davis and the pair of Vanderbilt starters. “You know how we are, KG,” joked one team’s top scout. “The more we watch these guys, the more reasons we find not to like them.”
Some Surprises In The Top Five
In a draft loaded with uncertainty — much of it due to the dearth of college bats — those with a track record and tools could go higher than expected due to the scarcity factor. Two names generating particular buzz are outfielders Sal Frelick (Boston College) and Colton Cowser (Sam Houston State). Both are impressive players, and top 15 talents in this year’s class, but the talk isn’t being generated by their play on the field as much as it is the people in the seats behind home plate, as multiple sources have noted high-level executives, including general managers with picks in the top six, bearing down on the duo. If teams focus on their concerns about the top talents, Frelick and Cowser could turn into potential early-pick money savers in order to redistribute big bonus pools further down the line.
Is It Too Early To Discuss 2022?
Without any prompting, two scouting executives asked me the same question last week: “Have you heard about Elijah Green?” It would be hard to have not heard about Green, who was already seen as one of the, if not the, best players in next year’s class. But the prep outfielder at IMG Academy in Florida has taken a step forward this spring to cement his early status. “He’d be a slam dunk No. 1 pick in this year’s draft,” said once source, with another agreeing by saying, “He’s the best player I’ve seen all year, and it’s not even close.” Green has three tools grading out at 70 or higher, with elite-level raw power, blinding speed (including a 6.2 60-yard-dash) and a cannon for an arm, prompting one evaluator to drop the generally verboten comparison to a young Bo Jackson, only with a better swing. Green is an elite talent, with a chance to be seen as a once-in-a-decade type of player if he continues to progress over the next 13 months.
Kevin Goldstein is a National Writer at FanGraphs.
I hope the Pirates take Davis. Lawler sounds like Cole Tucker with a little more bat.
A little more defense and speed too, and if Tucker has reached his offensive peak then even an average hitter has a lot more bat than he does!
Though I tend to agree, Pirates have drafted way too many not-that-high ceiling infielders and it hasn’t worked out so far. Newman, Kramer, Tucker, etc
I think the guys you mentioned (plus others like Will Craig and Adam Frazier) were the Pirates accurately predicting the increase in shifting, and totally missing the boat on how teams would counteract that. They went for a bunch of high-contact, put-the-ball-in-play spray hitters while the rest of the league went three true outcome. The result was a big league team with minimal power (relative to the league) and an offense that is heavily BABIP.
Back in 2014-2016, when shifts were just starting to take off, that’s what a lot of baseball types said they wanted, by the way – put the ball in play, hit it to all fields and beat the shift, etc. It just turns out that that hypothesis on how to build an offense in the modern game was wrong. And the Pirates were already too pot committed to adjust.
If I had to guess, I’d say the “too committed” way of thinking was ultimately what sunk NH. They had some good ideas, but weren’t able to adjust quickly when the league changed. Teams embraced power in both pitching and offense, and they went the other with sinkerballers and contact hitters. The thing that was irritating was they NEVER really looked to change until about 3-4 seasons after they went in the dumper.
This is awesome. Thanks. Any word on bonus demands for these guys or is it really tight-lipped at the moment?
It’s a little too early for that.
Love the write ups. Wondering how much the odds are just a Vibes thing vs. having some sense of what the Pirates are thinking. I’ve also read that they may attempt the ‘Early Pick Money Saver’ route mentioned in the Top Five Surprises. I’d be interested in more information there if it exists. Especially if there’s any talk of what they intend to do with the savings later in the draft.
I mean, everything is a vibes thing, but these vibes came from talking to a bunch of decision makers and even bouncing the odds themselves off them at times.
Sure, baseball is The Vibes game. It’s why we love it.
Money saver pick at #1 would be pretty weird.
That’s usually the best place to do it. The bonus slot at #1 is huge, and it gives you a ton of room to pick up sliding high schoolers whose bonus demands might keep them from being drafted after Round 1. Of course sometimes you screw up and the guys you want (Nick Bitsko, Tyler Soderstrom) get picked earlier, which is probably what happened to the Orioles in 2020. So it’s not by any means a risk-free move.
They may have had those guys as Plan A, but I’m not sure I buy the suggestion that they fell on their faces here. They apparently had deals with Mayo and Baumler set in advance of the draft, so it doesn’t appear to be some last ditch effort to salvage the situation
Saving money at 1-1 might seem weird, but even with the new regime it’s sometimes difficult not to expect too clever by half moves out of the Pirates.
Bring back uncapped bonuses and no draft slots.
Or abolish the draft and allot teams a budget based on record from the previous season. So if Boston wants to spend all 11.3 of their draft pool on four or five players, they can do so.
Budgets are worse than uncapped draft slots. Draft budgets are so lame. It was one of the things that made baseball unique.
I’m not a fan of it either, but drafts are lame too. If they went back to uncapped and allowed trades of picks that’s better. But it’s still a draft.
All American sports have drafts. what’s lame is people who somehow complain about baseball having one
or abolish the draft period and let all amateurs sign with whatever team they want (and will have them) for their fair market value.
So what happens when MLB owners decide “fair market value” is less than what you want it to be? That would be a great way to completely depress all draft pick spending
Top players would then sign overseas which would hurt the MLB product.
Fun fact: this already happened
No love for Mat Nelson?
Nelson is having a very good season, but he’s not a first-round pick, more second/third round.
Still hoping for Leiter, but would be happy with Mayer as well. Should be interesting to say the least.
The walk rate would be concerning to me. But I don’t know. Everyone says the pitch metrics on him are totally unbelievable. I’m increasingly thinking that these six guys form a top tier that rivals the top 6 in virtually any draft class but that none of them are obviously better than the other. There’s no Adley Rutschman or Gerrit Cole here.
Cole was a controversial pick when he was drafted. His college stats were concerning for someone with his stuff. It was unclear if Cole, Bauer, Bundy or Rendon was the BPA. At this moment, its Cole.
Must have been my memory going wrong then. I’ll revise that: There’s no Adley Rutschman in this class. I would actually argue there’s not been a slam-dunk, 1-1 lock in between Bryce Harper in 2010 and Adley Rutschman in 2019. Every time we think there’s one it turns out there’s a lot more industry disagreement (Swanson vs. Bregman, Buxton vs. Appel vs. Correa). This is part of why Elijah Green is so exciting–it’s because people see him as that sort of prospect.
IMO in the last 20 years, Strasburg and Harper have been the most clear #1 picks.
I would argue Prior would be next but for he literally didn’t go number 1, partially due to the combination of elite hometown guy willing to take a discount in his place.
If you were to make a list of the top mlb draft prospects of the 21st century, based on how they were evaluated at the time, I would say that Strasburg and Harper would top it. The problem with other guys like Prior and Buxton–who the public thought were slam-dunk #1 picks–actually didn’t go first (and, you can make the argument that the Astros and Twins made the right call there). But those two, plus Mauer and Rutschman…they would all fit there.
I feel like a few years ago someone–Keith Law, maybe?–wrote up an article like this where they went back to their notes at the time and wrote up his highest graded players at the time of the draft.
I don’t think not going 1-1 means you weren’t an obvious 1-1 guy, especially back in the days of uncapped bonuses. Prior was a very obvious 1-1 guy, similar in hype to Strasburg. Obviously money can affect things. We used to see elite prospects, especially Boras rep’d guys, fall all the time.
“IMO in the last 20 years, Strasburg and Harper have been the most clear #1 picks.”
I typically consider those two and David Price as clear 1-1 in their drafts over your timeframe.
Green has acquired the generational talent aura. I hope the Pirates pick 1-1 next year. The team will need a player like him in a few years.
I guess that depends on who you read. Law was all in on Cole and said he was just the smallest bit behind where Strasburg had been. I don’t recall it as that controversial. Rendon had the injuries, Bundy was a high schooler (and, though elite, some preferred Bradley), and Bauer lacked Cole’s upside (I recall the convo being more about Bauer v Hultzen than Bauer v Cole). Perhaps there were different takes out there, but I remember it more like sadtrombone.
same here
Right. I also remember that draft year being insanely strong and top end picks playing well down the stretch, rather than struggling like this year.
Cole was not as dominant as his stuff suggested he should be. That’s what made the pick controversial. It made him riskier than he turned out over the course of his career.
Disagree, Cole was clearly the top prospect that year. Rendon was right there but had injury issues in college, the other two were draft season risers/hipster picks. Like no one was seriously taking a 6’ HS RHP #1 overall
Yet, Bundy quickly became a prospect whose ranking exceeded Cole’s. Bundy — Wunderkind. Cole — good but how good? Rendon — premenstrual hit machine with plus defense but injury concerns. Etc.
Tbf the listicles change with every gust of wind for entertainment’s sake + probably a little bit of agenda-ing and something to do with money. Sports media cannot wait to declare a fly by night guy as totally definitely better than the long time top dog, and baseball was well aware of Cole’s talent going back to HS
The more I think about it, the more I think Henry Davis is my favorite guy in this draft. When a guy is producing exit velocities like this and is walking more than he’s striking out, you kind of have to believe that the batting line is for real. He’s not some super slow guy either so he can probably play other positions, he’s got a great arm behind the plate or at another spot, and he can very likely catch in the world of robo-umps. The only knock on him is that because of the lack of wood bat leagues we haven’t seen what he can do in that context. He’s very clearly a step behind Adley Rutschman but catching is such a wasteland that he compares favorably to the top prospects in this year and on par with those in other years.
I don’t think he goes 1-1 because, as Kevin says, teams like to chase tools with those kinds of bonuses and 20-25 homers isn’t sexy but what Kevin is describing is something like a 125 wRC+, more if you think he grinds out lots of PAs by grinding out walks. But I kind of think this guy’s story is going to be him falling to the Red Sox at #4 and then spending 7-10 years smacking doubles off the Green Monster and getting on base at a .370 clip. That’s a star right there (which, IIRC, also describes Carlton Fisk’s early career as well).
Update: Carlton Fisk was picked #4 by the Red Sox. This is clearly Henry Davis’s destiny. It is written in the stars.
Also, Fisk’s last minor league stop before joining the Red Sox full-time……Louisville. 🙂
Shut it, he’s going to Pittsburgh.
You basically just described what we all thought Blake Swihart was supposed to be
Don’t think he makes it to 4 tbh.
I’ve read that complaint on Lawler before: no big plus tool to focus on. But doesn’t Mayer have the same complaint? Maybe it sounds like his arm is better? Is that enough to separate if they both seem relatively equal otherwise? The cynic in me thinks this org won’t get enough out of either one. I half expect them to try to turn whoever they pick into a no-hit utility outfielder like Cole Tucker. To me, it’s Davis.
Mayer is 6’4. Lawler much smaller
Mayer directly comps to Carlos Correa, who you could also argue didn’t have a plus tool at draft-time, except he is left-handed and has a longer track record.
Being that size while having good infield actions & hitting ability is seen as fine because people thinks he will grow into power with his frame-not everyone is A-Rod.
Mayer was also already a better, more complete prospect the Keoni Cavaco 2 years ago, he is an absolute stud.
Also, it could be argued that Meyer has already developed this power. He has been on a homer-tear in huis senior year. Cali has some good pitching talent usually as well.
My preference for 1-1:
Mayer
Davis
Lawler
Leiter
Rocker
I prefer Mayer and Davis equally. I prefer Leiter and Rocker equally. The latter are riskier because they are pitchers and have generated red flags this season. Mayer is a LH SS with a plus hit tool. Davis has a plus hit tool and will work well as a catcher during the robo-ump era. Both fill positions the Pirates need to fill. Lawler also meets these needs, but swing and miss problems facing high school pitching is not a confidence booster.
I am with you. I am a Tigers fan and hoping either Mayer or Davis is there.
Watch for House at #3 and Alex Mooney at #32. Rumors are that every major decision maker in the Tigers’ organization has seen both (although Mooney plays not too far from Detroit so who knows about that one). FWIW, I’m not all that convinced that House is behind Lawlar and Mayer. If Kevin’s scouting sources are slapping a 60 hit on him and they’re right he’s going to be an absolute monster because he is a big, big kid.
multiple Tigers guys were at Chase Petty’s outing this past Sunday. Comp/2nd round possibility?
Kevin doesn’t like Petty, thinks he’s a reliever. But if you told me that there’s a shorter guy who throws 100 MPH, has a massive slider, good tunneling, and is available for the Marlins I’d say he’s who they pick. Maybe even at #16, but also potentially one slot before the Tigers at #31. They looooooove guys like that. So possible but I wouldn’t get my hopes up.
Last night, I watched Jared Jones pitch. He sat 97-98 and touched 99. His slider was tight and he mostly located it well. He’s short and clearly talented. If he can develop a change up and refine his command and control, then he can become a top of the rotation starter.
Body types are something to consider. But performance must also be a factor when evaluating a player
Sounds like he has a little Billy Wagner in him?
Or young Dylan Bundy, knock on wood.
While I understand the concept of BPA, when picking this high, I am rooting for one of the SS’s at 3, and hoping that Dingler becomes the Catcher we’ve been looking for.
I think it’ll end up being Davis, but I’d want Leiter if my favorite team had 1st overall. \\
This is probably the worst report I’ve seen on Davis’ defense. Before this I was confident he’d be the pick.
People confuse arm strength with catcher defense, the latter of which you have to invest a lot of hours of scouting time to discern. His arm is a howitzer and you can pick that up in an inning or two. But handling a staff and blocking balls requires more time.
I think Davis goes later than people think, if the consensus is that he’ll struggle to stay behind the dish. At that point he’s pretty close to del Castillo in value.
I think most of his issues revolve around receiving which probably won’t matter in two years. MLB also seems committed to reviving the stolen base. If the rules change in the ways a lot of baseball people anticipate, Davis goes from a minus defensively to a legitimate weapon.
del Castillo is mad underrated, slipped my mind
Great article Kevin. As a long frustrated Pirate fan this draft class, no stand out player, seems typical for when they get pick 1.1. There was talk of Elijah Green reclassifying into 2021, is it too late for that to happen?
The last time… Gerrit Cole. You are tough to satisfy there, bud. lol
In 2002, they took Bryan Bullington but they could have taken Zack Greinke, I suppose.
1996, when they took Kris Benson 1-1 does fit though. There was no great great players taken in round 1 that year, relatively speaking.
That 2002 draft was loaded, alot of ways they could have went…That’s the first draft I paid attention to
Reading this, it feels like Davis should be top pick. Seems like the best mix of floor and upside. His average outcome just seems a lot better than the others while being a good hitting catcher obviously leaves for a very high ceiling if everything hits.
Why is “lefty-hitting shortstop” cited by people as some sort of separating elite characteristic? If he can play short and hit, it barely matters which side he hits from.
Especially w the shift, it might not even be a positive anymore
It’s more of a tiebreaker than a separator, but it’s nice to be a lefty when so many of the pitchers are righties.
Good question. A lefty hitter would be on the strong side of any platoon which would lead to more playing time. It’s not the end all be all but it provides you a bit more of a floor.
Similar reason why right/right first basemen are valued the way they are.
I don’t think platoon risk should be part of the calculus at 1.1 — that’s over focusing on floor in the wrong part of the draft. Anyway, the R/R penalty is less than the L/L penalty and LHH GB BABIP stinks more and more each year. I can see maybe like a 51/49 preference for LHH but a major adjustment seems like too much.
Bad process is comparing 2 guesses* and breaking the tie using a minute but quantifiable factor. It’s like in football: the referee guesses where to spot the ball within a margin of error of a few feet, the chain holders bring out the chain to a margin of +/- several inches, and then we determine the first down decision based on a half-inch one way or the other. At some point your error bars are so wide it’s impossible to apply tiebreakers without being arbitrary.
* No disrespect to evaluators here — even really heavily-researched best-available guesses are still guesses with hard to quantify error bars.
Nobody suggested a major adjustment
Can we just skip to Elijah Green? The rest seem like Mickey Moniak types. What a “meh” draft.
Henry Davis or Brady House if being basic, but if they really really had balls and went nuts…Harry Ford
You mean if they threw a dart? That’s not balls, it’s just stupid.
I’d actually agree that the way the algorithms think would find taking Ford very stupid. I’m very sure the basic thinking here starts and stops at HS catcher, but yeah he’s the best prep in this class with maybe House
Ok, why is he the best prep with House? Why not him and not…say Benny Montgomery, another guy who is all tooled up? Ford has a good profile, I’ll bet whoever drafts him moves him to the OF for sure though.
Ford was, hands down, the best prep on the summer circuit last year. Good defender at a premium spot, good age, good numbers, the whole deal basically. The only HSer to test better that I’ve run into was Montgomery, so good name, but give me the up the middle defender. Montgomery has defensive tools and if he were a sure CF maybe, but nah give me Ford btw them
House comes from the most successful HS demo, first round SSs, and has been considered among the handful top prospects in this draft for years now. The company he’d be in if the first HS drafted is pretty great, and either way he’s still young for the class a plus in his corner
I like Ford more than House who I like more than Montgomery (the oldest in this trio by 6 months)
Note that I do talk out of my ass a whole lot but – if I may be so bold – also got the shinnin’ a little bit for the MLB (and NFL) draft
Should say that shinnin’ works best for Cubs or Jets
So legit, what is Brady House not doing that the other two HS SSs are? He’s bigger, stronger, younger, decorated, had the best offensive metrics last summer as far as I can tell, doesn’t seem to have any makeup concerns
I don’t think Mayer is anywhere near as physical as Seager or Correa (who was 17 on draft day) coming out of HS. Lawlar gives me Addison Russell vibes after bulking up for his draft year, though Russell had more questions about position and less about offense coming out due to the bulk he added. I honestly, regardless of my Cubs fandom, don’t and wouldn’t see these guys as stronger prospects than Ed Howard last year. As far as I can tell, though he mysteriously lacks the metrics on PG’s page (which IMO is somehow tied to the makeup questions along with some uuuuuh showmanship), both of these guys were outperformed by Kahlil Watson last summer too…
I said this a bit before but if Kevin’s sources are hanging a 60 hit tool on House then he’s on the same level as Mayer and Lawlar. House is big enough that he’ll hit for power as long as he makes solid contact, and that’s well above that threshold.
The reason he’s still not considered on the same level as Mayer and Lawlar is because scouts don’t think he’ll stick at shortstop. I think that’s more likely than not but I don’t buy that it’s enough to drag him down below the other two.
House won’t go 1:1 but would be my bet for the most WAR over the first five years of his career out of any of these prospects. He will be an impact bat at 3B with an impact arm on the hot corner. His upside isn’t as high as some of the other folks but I think he’s the most likely to consistently perform at his potential.
I think it’s a legit question, and I like House as a wildcard option more than the other two. Maybe the issue is many think he doesn’t stick at short. A larger question I have is: how many prep bats that scouts hang a 60 on for hitting actually become that? It seems incredibly infrequent.
What is the chance someone goes under slot for a surprise pick like the Os last year? And do you generally like that? Ideal case you have the guy still work out and you get another excellent prospect (prime case probably correa and mccullers for the astros) but it can also end up like mickey moniak and it might be safer to just go best player first and worry about the other picks later.
Regarding Lawler I’m a bit concerned about the swing and miss early in the season. He did fix that later in the year but this might be something that could re surface against higher level pitching in the higher minors when that is something that is “sleeping” in him.
Still an excellent prospect but I would be afraid he can be like moniak who also was supposed to be a super advanced hit tool for HS and when that didn’t work out you end up with a 50 grade hitter who hits 12 bombs a year which probably is about a 90 wrc+ hitter.
Still a good prospect and the power could tick up and the hit tool play but I would prefer the ceiling of mayer when there only is the slightest doubt about lawler’s floor.
I’m not much of a math guy, but I’ve done enough parimutuel betting to see that your odds don’t add up. Somebody has to go 1-1, and it’s almost certainly going to be one of the names you listed, but the odds don’t reflect that — they leave too much room for someone else.
Luckily baseball isn’t horses — your odds are locked at the time of the bet. They don’t always add to 1 because it’s about not exposing the house to too much risk. The 10-15% rake is plenty, the book doesn’t need the action.
Understood, but KG’s odds fall way, way short of one. And there’s no actual betting involved here, so there’s no reason not to add up to one.
He’s got two guys at 3-1 — that adds up to 50% chance that it’s one of those two guys. Davis is 5-1, a 17% chance, Leiter 10-1 is 9%, Rocker less than 4%. That adds up to about 80%, leaving a 1-in-4 chance that it’s somebody not on this list.
I don’t believe KG would put the rest of the field at 3-1, but that’s what he’s done here.
I know it’s part of the larger media discourse, and I’m glad people like it, but I am very unhappy that FG has decided to lean into gambling/odds as an increasing basis of its articles 🙁
If you don’t pay attention to Vegas odds, you’re depriving yourself of some really excellent information. Whether you want to gamble or not.