2024 ZiPS Projections: Arizona Diamondbacks

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Batters

Last year, I noted in this space that I had to double-check the Diamondbacks’ ZiPS projections, as the computer seemed surprisingly optimistic about Arizona’s outlook. It turned out to be a little too optimistic, though I was wrong about the relative strength of the Giants and Padres, who both finished below the Snakes in the standings (though you can quibble about how good the Padres actually were in 2023).

Naturally, since ZiPS had a sunny view of Arizona then, it’s certainly not going to be less sunny now that a lot of the things the system liked have came to pass. Looking at the 2024 projections as a whole, they actually feels very Cardinals-y, and not in the sense of the 2023 Cardinals. The projections from top to bottom are quite steady, in the manner of a good Cards team, with a lot of positional flexibility on the roster and a solidly above-average projected defense from bow to stern.

ZiPS liked Corbin Carroll enough going into last season to make him its top prospect (by a hair) over Gunnar Henderson, and his Rookie of the Year campaign, which saw him in the MVP conversation during the first half, didn’t exactly change the computer’s mind. The relatively low numbers on the depth chart come down to Carroll’s contributions being spread out among all three outfield positions. Of the timeshare candidates, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Alek Thomas both project as solidly average contributors, and ZiPS thinks Jake McCarthy, though down from his 2022 big league performance, is at least a decent stopgap.

ZiPS sees Christian Walker as the best defensive first baseman in baseball among actual starters and isn’t projecting a meaningful decline for Ketel Marte just yet. The computer is in on Jordan Lawlar, though it’s less enthusiastic about Geraldo Perdomo. Eugenio Suárez’s projection is disappointing, as ZiPS sees his glove falling off more than his bat bouncing bat, but he should at least give the Diamondbacks what they had hoped to get from Evan Longoria (and didn’t). Gabriel Moreno shined in his first stint in the majors as the unquestioned starter at catcher.

Pitchers

Zac Gallen has long been a ZiPS favorite and while he fell off in the Cy Young race (with Blake Snell nearly sweeping), he’s an undoubted ace and The Guy in Arizona. Merrill Kelly was arguably nearly as good as Gallen in 2023 and projects to remain a fine assistant to the ace starter. The question is who comes next, a quandary that plagued the Snakes as they prepared for the playoffs. One very good answer is the addition of Eduardo Rodriguez. While the Diamondbacks might have felt burned by how the Madison Bumgarner contract worked out, E-Rod projects significantly better now than Bumgarner did at the time of his signing. In that last deal, the Diamondbacks made the mistake of paying for a player’s past rather than his future, as Bumgarner’s strikeout rate and quality-of-contact metrics were already slipping.

The E-Rod signing serves to push Brandon Pfaadt into the fourth starter spot. He was a bit disappointing during the regular season in 2023, but he was sterling in most of his playoff appearances, which ZiPS does take into consideration. And his rookie year wasn’t quite the disappointment that his ERA/FIP make it out to be; if you want to bet on a bounce-back season, bet on the otherwise competent pitcher who had a freaky home run rate. Like Corbin Burnes at a similar point in his career or Andrew Heaney a few years ago, these players tend to regress heavily toward more normal home run rates.

That just leaves the fifth starter, and the D-backs have enough talent hanging around to decide on that spot on the fly, with a number of plausible options. Ryne Nelson and Tommy Henry have similar projections, and ZiPS remains positive on Slade Cecconi. The computer is also a huge fan of Yu-Min Lin, who held his own at Double-A at just 19, though he doesn’t possess the big fastball that scouts like, so he’s far from a sure thing.

Arizona’s bullpen was middle of the road in 2023 and ZiPS projects that to continue. Paul Sewald and Kevin Ginkel have projections that put them head-and-shoulders above the rest of the relief corp, but otherwise the ‘pen, while deep, projects as serviceable rather than stellar. At least there are no projected disasters currently expected to get playing time, which should serve to keep the late innings away from any nasty surprises.

Overall, the Diamondbacks project a little better than in 2023, in the 84-88 win range. It took some good fortune to get to the World Series last year, fortune that promptly abandoned them once they got there. But this remains a solid team that is poised to contend for a Wild Card spot, though it would still be a major upset if they made the Dodgers shake in their shoes, especially after the Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto signings.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Corbin Carroll L 23 RF 636 556 98 151 27 9 20 87 60 137 39 5
Ketel Marte B 30 2B 581 516 77 144 35 4 19 72 56 98 6 1
Gabriel Moreno R 24 C 371 336 39 93 17 1 8 44 27 69 4 1
Christian Walker R 33 1B 588 517 73 131 30 2 22 81 59 122 7 1
Jordan Lawlar R 21 SS 531 474 78 117 20 5 11 61 43 138 22 5
Alek Thomas L 24 CF 537 492 69 127 25 7 12 63 34 109 9 3
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. R 30 LF 541 499 59 140 32 2 16 68 33 95 4 2
Eugenio Suárez R 32 3B 615 533 65 121 26 1 22 75 65 182 1 1
Jorge Barrosa B 23 CF 527 468 66 114 23 4 8 54 47 104 12 7
Jake McCarthy L 26 RF 508 459 68 121 21 8 9 56 37 105 29 6
Geraldo Perdomo B 24 SS 500 422 65 102 16 4 6 45 56 97 12 5
Dominic Fletcher L 26 CF 477 431 60 110 21 5 8 55 33 114 3 4
Andrés Chaparro R 25 3B 528 476 59 115 23 3 14 62 41 127 2 1
Emmanuel Rivera R 28 3B 419 383 53 97 20 3 10 50 30 84 2 1
Nick Ahmed R 34 SS 332 308 32 72 18 2 5 31 22 78 5 1
Mark Mathias R 29 2B 308 270 31 66 13 1 6 36 31 82 7 2
Ivan Melendez R 24 3B 415 379 42 79 17 1 16 62 21 166 2 1
Jace Peterson L 34 3B 372 326 39 77 14 3 6 36 39 89 11 1
Evan Longoria R 38 3B 266 237 29 56 12 0 9 32 24 77 0 1
Blaze Alexander R 25 SS 382 341 41 75 14 2 8 44 29 128 4 3
Pavin Smith L 28 RF 482 427 56 107 19 2 12 54 50 96 2 1
David Martin L 23 C 383 337 35 86 13 0 2 33 35 59 0 2
Kyle Lewis R 28 DH 336 300 41 76 11 0 12 43 32 90 1 1
Tommy Pham R 36 LF 478 423 57 105 23 2 11 51 48 114 14 3
Tim Tawa R 25 2B 472 430 48 97 18 2 9 44 37 128 6 4
Yairo Muñoz R 29 1B 332 314 37 88 15 2 5 36 13 62 8 3
Diego Castillo R 26 LF 506 451 62 113 25 0 7 51 48 94 6 5
Jose Herrera B 27 C 288 254 29 58 9 1 3 23 28 66 1 1
Jancarlos Cintron R 29 SS 343 322 36 81 15 1 3 31 15 60 5 3
Phillip Evans R 31 3B 487 431 56 109 19 1 6 45 45 83 1 1
Tommy Troy R 22 SS 121 109 13 25 5 1 3 13 10 37 5 1
Juan Centeno L 34 C 267 250 21 58 11 0 2 22 13 70 1 1
Tristin English R 27 1B 425 385 43 89 17 0 10 51 28 116 2 2
Andy Weber L 26 2B 400 365 46 87 20 2 2 37 28 108 2 1
Kevin Vicuña R 26 SS 290 265 28 65 11 2 2 27 13 67 5 3
Camden Duzenack R 29 SS 334 306 38 72 15 1 6 37 17 84 3 3
A.J. Vukovich R 22 CF 527 496 57 112 19 3 12 57 27 161 14 5
Adrian Del Castillo L 24 C 392 351 33 75 16 2 6 37 34 120 1 1
Wilderd Patiño R 22 CF 483 435 61 95 15 1 6 52 29 165 29 7
J.J. D’Orazio R 22 C 426 393 38 92 21 2 5 37 26 109 1 1
Roby Enriquez L 27 RF 267 241 22 56 12 0 2 25 18 54 3 2
Kristian Robinson R 23 RF 286 259 30 54 7 2 9 37 19 109 12 5
Jesus Valdez R 26 3B 304 293 30 67 12 2 8 34 7 94 3 2
Jake Hager R 31 SS 317 288 32 62 17 1 4 30 21 89 3 2
Jean Walters B 22 RF 246 231 26 54 9 2 1 18 10 58 2 1
Nick Dalesandro R 27 CF 267 244 27 53 8 1 1 19 18 80 14 3
Kevin Graham L 24 RF 265 244 25 53 9 2 2 22 17 80 3 2
Garrett Wolforth R 26 C 278 260 25 49 12 2 5 26 15 112 1 1
Brett Johnson L 24 RF 312 268 29 47 15 1 2 22 37 117 7 2
Neyfy Castillo R 23 RF 417 383 42 77 13 3 9 44 27 161 11 5
Sheng-Ping Chen L 23 2B 351 322 31 65 13 1 4 27 24 117 3 2
Caleb Roberts L 24 LF 444 396 48 84 17 5 7 45 39 140 6 3
Jonathan Guzman R 24 LF 359 333 30 64 7 3 2 22 19 110 6 3

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA RC
Corbin Carroll 636 .272 .354 .460 123 .189 .328 10 4.6 .352 101
Ketel Marte 581 .279 .353 .473 126 .194 .313 -3 3.6 .354 88
Gabriel Moreno 371 .277 .334 .405 103 .128 .328 9 2.8 .322 47
Christian Walker 588 .253 .335 .447 114 .193 .292 7 2.7 .337 79
Jordan Lawlar 531 .247 .322 .380 93 .133 .326 3 2.4 .309 64
Alek Thomas 537 .258 .310 .411 97 .152 .310 5 2.2 .311 66
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 541 .281 .328 .449 112 .168 .320 2 2.0 .333 75
Eugenio Suárez 615 .227 .319 .403 98 .176 .301 0 2.0 .316 69
Jorge Barrosa 527 .244 .318 .361 88 .118 .298 7 1.8 .301 59
Jake McCarthy 508 .264 .327 .403 101 .139 .325 5 1.8 .318 69
Geraldo Perdomo 500 .242 .338 .341 89 .100 .301 0 1.7 .305 53
Dominic Fletcher 477 .255 .316 .383 92 .128 .330 5 1.6 .305 54
Andrés Chaparro 528 .242 .309 .391 92 .149 .301 2 1.5 .305 58
Emmanuel Rivera 419 .253 .310 .399 95 .146 .301 0 1.1 .308 48
Nick Ahmed 332 .234 .286 .354 76 .120 .298 5 0.9 .279 33
Mark Mathias 308 .244 .328 .367 92 .122 .330 0 0.9 .308 35
Ivan Melendez 415 .208 .272 .385 79 .177 .320 5 0.9 .286 41
Jace Peterson 372 .236 .321 .353 86 .117 .307 -1 0.8 .299 40
Evan Longoria 266 .236 .308 .401 94 .165 .311 1 0.8 .307 30
Blaze Alexander 382 .220 .297 .343 77 .123 .327 2 0.7 .284 37
Pavin Smith 482 .251 .330 .389 98 .138 .298 -2 0.7 .315 56
David Martin 383 .255 .337 .312 81 .056 .304 -3 0.6 .295 36
Kyle Lewis 336 .253 .327 .410 103 .157 .323 0 0.6 .322 41
Tommy Pham 478 .248 .326 .390 97 .142 .315 -3 0.6 .314 58
Tim Tawa 472 .226 .288 .340 73 .114 .300 5 0.6 .277 45
Yairo Muñoz 332 .280 .311 .389 92 .108 .336 4 0.5 .304 41
Diego Castillo 506 .251 .325 .353 88 .102 .303 3 0.5 .301 55
Jose Herrera 288 .228 .306 .307 71 .079 .297 1 0.4 .277 25
Jancarlos Cintron 343 .252 .290 .332 72 .081 .301 2 0.4 .275 33
Phillip Evans 487 .253 .331 .343 87 .090 .301 -5 0.4 .300 50
Tommy Troy 121 .229 .298 .376 85 .147 .319 0 0.4 .294 14
Juan Centeno 267 .232 .274 .300 59 .068 .315 4 0.3 .255 21
Tristin English 425 .231 .296 .353 79 .122 .305 6 0.2 .287 42
Andy Weber 400 .238 .300 .321 72 .082 .333 0 0.1 .277 36
Kevin Vicuña 290 .245 .296 .325 72 .079 .321 -2 0.1 .276 28
Camden Duzenack 334 .235 .285 .350 74 .114 .306 -2 0.1 .278 32
A.J. Vukovich 527 .226 .269 .349 69 .123 .310 1 -0.1 .269 52
Adrian Del Castillo 392 .214 .286 .322 68 .108 .307 -4 -0.1 .271 33
Wilderd Patiño 483 .218 .293 .299 64 .080 .337 -2 -0.2 .267 47
J.J. D’Orazio 426 .234 .282 .336 70 .102 .312 -5 -0.2 .271 38
Roby Enriquez 267 .232 .300 .307 69 .075 .292 2 -0.3 .271 24
Kristian Robinson 286 .208 .280 .355 74 .147 .319 -1 -0.4 .278 30
Jesus Valdez 304 .229 .250 .365 67 .137 .309 -1 -0.5 .264 28
Jake Hager 317 .215 .271 .323 64 .108 .297 -5 -0.6 .262 27
Jean Walters 246 .234 .267 .303 58 .069 .308 2 -0.7 .250 20
Nick Dalesandro 267 .217 .274 .270 52 .053 .319 -4 -0.9 .246 22
Kevin Graham 265 .217 .272 .295 57 .078 .315 0 -0.9 .253 21
Garrett Wolforth 278 .188 .237 .308 49 .119 .308 -4 -1.0 .239 20
Brett Johnson 312 .175 .282 .261 52 .086 .302 1 -1.0 .250 22
Neyfy Castillo 417 .201 .264 .321 61 .120 .319 2 -1.0 .259 37
Sheng-Ping Chen 351 .202 .261 .286 51 .084 .303 -1 -1.0 .245 25
Caleb Roberts 444 .212 .293 .333 73 .121 .309 -6 -1.2 .278 41
Jonathan Guzman 359 .192 .239 .249 36 .057 .281 1 -2.1 .220 22

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Corbin Carroll Grady Sizemore Mickey Rivers Sandy Amoros
Ketel Marte John Valentin Lou Whitaker Bob Elliott
Gabriel Moreno Don Slaught Mickey O’Neil Ray Fosse
Christian Walker Don Baylor Rafael Palmeiro Don Mincher
Jordan Lawlar Royce Clayton Alex Gonzalez Hiram Bocachica
Alek Thomas Shane Victorino Jim Steels Bill Virdon
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Lou Piniella Freddie Lindstrom Jay Payton
Eugenio Suárez Rico Petrocelli Roy Smalley Leo Gomez
Jorge Barrosa Rontrez Johnson Ryan Freel Cobi Cradle
Jake McCarthy Kevin Kiermaier Dave Moates Tom Shopay
Geraldo Perdomo Cliff Pennington Lee Bales Kurt Seibert
Dominic Fletcher Jason Conti Jimmy Williams Luis Liberato
Andrés Chaparro Marshall McDougall John Alvarez Steve Buechele
Emmanuel Rivera Wattie Holm Curt Smith Eduardo Escobar
Nick Ahmed Brendan Ryan Adam Everett Jeff Schaefer
Mark Mathias Steve Tolleson Dickie Thon Russ Johnson
Ivan Melendez Brandon Lewis Bill McNulty Mark Reynolds
Jace Peterson Nick Punto Dick Smith Lenny Randle
Evan Longoria Mark DeRosa John Mabry Ron Cey
Blaze Alexander Erick Almonte Mike Ahmed Al Grandcolas
Pavin Smith Rob Ryan Andy Abad Rusty Greer
David Martin Jon-Mark Sprowl David Marshall William Sobbe
Kyle Lewis Brett Cooley Matthew LeCroy Javier Brito
Tommy Pham Tommy Harper Joe Patterson Chuck Hinton
Tim Tawa Andre Wood Devin Lohman Felix Santana
Yairo Muñoz Max Macon Jason Ellison Russ Snyder
Diego Castillo Dan Monzon Brent Johnson Mario Monico
Jose Herrera Dan Moylan Gene Dusan Adam Weisenburger
Jancarlos Cintron Onix Concepcion Yhoxian Medina Chin-Lung Hu
Phillip Evans Leo Thomas Mark Lemke Edgar Diaz
Tommy Troy Mike Rouse Sandy Hiraldo James Hemphill
Juan Centeno Caleb Joseph Dan Firova Rick Wrona
Tristin English Chris Barkulis Mike McDade Mark Higgins
Andy Weber Omar Quintanilla Gordy Lund Brett Wiley
Kevin Vicuña Luis Marté Jason Smiga Alvaro Rondon
Camden Duzenack Rob Picciolo Jace Brewer Manny Alexander
A.J. Vukovich Ivan Calderon Al Martin마틴 Kenny Williams
Adrian Del Castillo Andy Skeels Marcus Jensen Thomas Videtich
Wilderd Patiño Darren Ford Marland Williams Kimera Bartee
J.J. D’Orazio Blake Hunt René Rivera Nick Ciuffo
Roby Enriquez Andre Mercurio Peter Cronin John Schmitz
Kristian Robinson Tony Barron Wilkin Ramirez Pat Lennon
Jesus Valdez Angel Rosa Don Zimmer Trevor Lawhorn
Jake Hager Luis Rivera Jayson Nix Zoilo Versalles
Jean Walters Justin Bass Bryan De La Cruz Florentino Nunez
Nick Dalesandro Carroll Hardy Bobby Andrews Lonell Roberts
Kevin Graham Ruben Rodriguez John Zaksek Tom Jones
Garrett Wolforth Danny Sawyer Kevin Miller Kevin Burrell
Brett Johnson Mike Campbell Chris Durkin Howard Akers
Neyfy Castillo Jeff Wang Cesar Hernandez Belgee Falkner
Sheng-Ping Chen Eric Thomas Robert Sankey Ryan Dent
Caleb Roberts Chantz Mack Phil Downing Ed Sedar
Jonathan Guzman Rick Angell Carlos Duran Tony Ross

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Corbin Carroll .301 .385 .515 145 6.4 .244 .326 .407 102 3.0
Ketel Marte .305 .379 .534 146 5.0 .254 .327 .428 107 2.3
Gabriel Moreno .305 .363 .456 124 3.8 .246 .306 .355 82 1.8
Christian Walker .278 .358 .491 130 4.0 .227 .310 .398 95 1.4
Jordan Lawlar .273 .349 .431 111 3.6 .224 .299 .339 75 1.2
Alek Thomas .286 .334 .456 115 3.4 .233 .284 .367 80 0.9
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. .307 .355 .495 131 3.4 .253 .301 .403 94 0.8
Eugenio Suárez .255 .342 .450 117 3.4 .203 .294 .359 82 0.8
Jorge Barrosa .271 .343 .410 106 3.0 .214 .291 .314 68 0.5
Jake McCarthy .292 .352 .452 120 3.1 .238 .303 .356 84 0.8
Geraldo Perdomo .268 .367 .383 107 2.8 .214 .313 .299 72 0.6
Dominic Fletcher .283 .340 .430 111 2.7 .229 .288 .340 75 0.6
Andrés Chaparro .270 .335 .437 111 2.7 .217 .282 .347 75 0.3
Emmanuel Rivera .282 .336 .447 114 2.1 .229 .284 .347 74 0.1
Nick Ahmed .262 .315 .401 96 1.8 .205 .259 .310 57 0.2
Mark Mathias .273 .356 .414 112 1.6 .214 .297 .322 72 0.1
Ivan Melendez .241 .303 .446 102 2.1 .181 .242 .331 58 -0.3
Jace Peterson .266 .348 .399 106 1.7 .208 .293 .307 69 0.0
Evan Longoria .264 .338 .443 112 1.3 .210 .284 .348 75 0.1
Blaze Alexander .250 .325 .393 97 1.7 .196 .270 .295 59 -0.1
Pavin Smith .280 .357 .438 116 1.8 .228 .306 .340 80 -0.3
David Martin .284 .365 .350 99 1.5 .219 .298 .275 62 -0.4
Kyle Lewis .279 .356 .463 123 1.5 .222 .298 .362 83 -0.3
Tommy Pham .275 .351 .436 116 1.8 .222 .303 .344 81 -0.4
Tim Tawa .258 .319 .391 92 1.7 .197 .257 .289 51 -0.6
Yairo Muñoz .315 .345 .435 114 1.4 .247 .280 .347 73 -0.3
Diego Castillo .278 .350 .393 106 1.6 .223 .295 .311 71 -0.8
Jose Herrera .266 .344 .360 96 1.3 .195 .277 .264 53 -0.2
Jancarlos Cintron .283 .322 .369 89 1.2 .223 .263 .292 55 -0.4
Phillip Evans .282 .356 .383 104 1.4 .225 .300 .308 70 -0.7
Tommy Troy .264 .332 .449 111 0.8 .195 .267 .312 61 0.0
Juan Centeno .265 .305 .340 78 0.9 .204 .246 .262 40 -0.4
Tristin English .259 .323 .407 97 1.2 .203 .266 .312 60 -0.9
Andy Weber .269 .330 .358 91 1.0 .210 .272 .279 55 -0.8
Kevin Vicuña .271 .324 .364 89 0.7 .215 .268 .285 54 -0.6
Camden Duzenack .266 .315 .405 95 1.0 .210 .259 .302 55 -0.8
A.J. Vukovich .250 .294 .391 87 1.1 .199 .245 .305 52 -1.3
Adrian Del Castillo .246 .319 .377 90 0.9 .181 .257 .275 47 -1.2
Wilderd Patiño .243 .313 .336 79 0.7 .192 .271 .263 50 -1.1
J.J. D’Orazio .269 .317 .388 91 0.9 .205 .254 .298 51 -1.3
Roby Enriquez .262 .328 .351 88 0.3 .206 .273 .272 53 -0.9
Kristian Robinson .237 .308 .417 96 0.4 .178 .256 .304 54 -1.1
Jesus Valdez .257 .279 .426 91 0.4 .201 .224 .321 49 -1.2
Jake Hager .246 .303 .372 83 0.1 .185 .241 .277 44 -1.5
Jean Walters .268 .300 .350 80 0.0 .205 .239 .261 41 -1.3
Nick Dalesandro .246 .304 .309 71 -0.2 .186 .246 .236 36 -1.4
Kevin Graham .242 .298 .334 75 -0.3 .188 .241 .251 39 -1.6
Garrett Wolforth .217 .270 .362 71 -0.2 .157 .208 .259 29 -1.7
Brett Johnson .205 .313 .303 72 -0.2 .143 .251 .213 32 -1.8
Neyfy Castillo .230 .291 .364 80 0.0 .176 .240 .279 44 -1.9
Sheng-Ping Chen .237 .295 .342 74 0.0 .175 .231 .247 31 -1.9
Caleb Roberts .241 .324 .378 92 -0.1 .189 .269 .293 55 -2.1
Jonathan Guzman .222 .272 .290 55 -1.2 .165 .216 .211 21 -2.8

Batters – Projected Splits
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R
Corbin Carroll .264 .345 .443 .275 .359 .469
Ketel Marte .290 .360 .503 .274 .349 .458
Gabriel Moreno .286 .346 .429 .270 .326 .388
Christian Walker .253 .345 .447 .254 .330 .447
Jordan Lawlar .257 .338 .404 .241 .312 .364
Alek Thomas .252 .304 .413 .261 .313 .409
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. .285 .335 .455 .278 .324 .446
Eugenio Suárez .235 .335 .405 .224 .312 .403
Jorge Barrosa .241 .317 .359 .245 .319 .363
Jake McCarthy .252 .317 .391 .269 .331 .409
Geraldo Perdomo .239 .333 .333 .243 .340 .345
Dominic Fletcher .240 .302 .355 .266 .326 .403
Andrés Chaparro .247 .321 .402 .238 .300 .383
Emmanuel Rivera .261 .324 .420 .248 .301 .385
Nick Ahmed .241 .293 .380 .230 .282 .340
Mark Mathias .248 .343 .388 .242 .315 .349
Ivan Melendez .210 .278 .385 .208 .268 .386
Jace Peterson .224 .303 .328 .239 .325 .359
Evan Longoria .247 .325 .425 .232 .301 .390
Blaze Alexander .224 .304 .362 .217 .290 .328
Pavin Smith .239 .315 .372 .255 .335 .395
David Martin .245 .327 .277 .259 .341 .325
Kyle Lewis .254 .338 .421 .253 .320 .403
Tommy Pham .254 .344 .410 .246 .318 .381
Tim Tawa .227 .295 .331 .225 .284 .345
Yairo Muñoz .284 .322 .396 .278 .303 .383
Diego Castillo .256 .341 .377 .246 .312 .333
Jose Herrera .229 .308 .292 .228 .305 .316
Jancarlos Cintron .256 .299 .341 .247 .281 .323
Phillip Evans .254 .337 .364 .252 .326 .329
Tommy Troy .244 .320 .400 .219 .282 .359
Juan Centeno .224 .272 .303 .236 .276 .299
Tristin English .234 .303 .353 .229 .292 .353
Andy Weber .226 .286 .322 .244 .307 .320
Kevin Vicuña .250 .300 .333 .241 .293 .317
Camden Duzenack .231 .279 .369 .239 .289 .335
A.J. Vukovich .225 .272 .348 .226 .268 .349
Adrian Del Castillo .209 .279 .318 .216 .290 .324
Wilderd Patiño .227 .299 .324 .212 .288 .280
J.J. D’Orazio .237 .290 .346 .232 .277 .329
Roby Enriquez .225 .291 .310 .235 .303 .306
Kristian Robinson .206 .283 .343 .210 .277 .363
Jesus Valdez .233 .256 .371 .226 .246 .362
Jake Hager .215 .280 .338 .215 .263 .310
Jean Walters .230 .264 .287 .236 .270 .313
Nick Dalesandro .221 .287 .279 .214 .265 .264
Kevin Graham .200 .260 .300 .224 .277 .293
Garrett Wolforth .195 .254 .319 .184 .224 .299
Brett Johnson .171 .276 .263 .177 .284 .260
Neyfy Castillo .209 .277 .342 .196 .254 .307
Sheng-Ping Chen .191 .250 .252 .208 .267 .304
Caleb Roberts .200 .281 .317 .217 .298 .341
Jonathan Guzman .193 .245 .262 .191 .235 .239

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Zac Gallen R 28 13 9 3.57 31 31 186.3 165 74 23 55 175
Paul Sewald R 34 4 2 3.60 58 0 55.0 46 22 8 19 66
Kevin Ginkel R 30 5 4 3.60 58 0 60.0 51 24 7 24 66
Eduardo Rodriguez L 31 11 8 3.65 25 25 138.0 135 56 16 43 135
Joe Mantiply L 33 3 3 3.91 49 3 48.3 50 21 6 13 43
Peter Strzelecki R 29 3 3 3.94 41 0 45.7 41 20 5 17 49
Miguel Castro R 29 5 4 3.97 64 0 56.7 49 25 7 25 62
Brandon Pfaadt R 25 9 9 3.97 27 27 147.3 142 65 19 36 143
Merrill Kelly R 35 9 9 3.97 26 26 154.0 148 68 21 47 132
Nabil Crismatt R 29 3 4 3.97 30 6 65.7 69 29 8 20 56
Drey Jameson R 26 7 6 4.01 22 16 101.0 98 45 12 36 94
Andrew Saalfrank L 26 5 4 4.04 49 0 64.7 57 29 7 32 70
Kyle Nelson L 27 4 4 4.04 59 2 49.0 45 22 7 20 53
Luis Frías R 26 4 3 4.08 42 7 70.7 66 32 8 32 73
Ryan Thompson R 32 3 3 4.09 43 0 44.0 43 20 6 14 38
Slade Cecconi R 25 7 6 4.12 26 23 126.7 127 58 16 33 101
Taylor Rashi R 28 3 3 4.15 25 2 30.3 28 14 4 15 31
Blake Workman R 26 2 3 4.17 26 0 41.0 41 19 5 12 36
Scott McGough R 34 4 4 4.20 47 1 60.0 57 28 8 24 64
Christian Montes De Oca R 24 2 3 4.25 40 0 55.0 55 26 7 22 45
Yu-Min Lin L 20 5 5 4.28 23 23 107.3 102 51 12 45 100
Stephen Nogosek R 29 1 2 4.31 26 1 39.7 39 19 5 18 38
Ryne Nelson R 26 7 8 4.32 28 26 143.7 144 69 19 47 114
Tyler Gilbert L 30 5 5 4.34 31 9 83.0 82 40 11 28 69
Austin Pope R 25 3 4 4.36 38 4 64.0 65 31 8 25 58
Bryce Jarvis R 26 6 8 4.43 30 18 107.7 107 53 13 48 91
Tommy Henry L 26 5 5 4.43 22 21 111.7 111 55 13 45 86
Dylan Ray R 23 7 8 4.47 23 23 100.7 100 50 12 37 81
Kyle Backhus L 26 4 5 4.47 43 1 58.3 58 29 7 27 51
Corbin Martin R 28 4 5 4.50 16 13 66.0 67 33 9 32 60
José Castillo L 28 3 4 4.50 37 0 38.0 36 19 5 20 40
Blake Walston L 23 7 9 4.52 28 28 135.3 140 68 13 62 95
Jeff Bain R 28 3 4 4.55 24 8 63.3 68 32 8 19 47
Yilber Diaz R 23 5 7 4.65 24 24 91.0 85 47 11 51 89
Peter Solomon R 27 4 6 4.65 26 16 98.7 102 51 12 44 79
Tyler Zuber R 29 2 2 4.66 37 0 36.7 33 19 5 21 38
Will Mabrey L 23 3 5 4.71 41 2 57.3 59 30 7 27 43
Josh Green R 28 4 4 4.72 32 5 68.7 76 36 8 22 42
Konnor Pilkington L 26 4 5 4.72 24 18 82.0 81 43 10 46 71
Raffi Vizcaíno R 28 2 3 4.73 39 3 45.7 43 24 6 30 47
Luke Albright R 24 5 7 4.78 22 22 101.7 103 54 12 56 86
Gerald Ogando R 23 3 4 4.79 31 0 41.3 41 22 5 25 36
Francisco Morales R 24 4 5 4.82 28 9 56.0 49 30 6 40 60
Justin Martinez R 22 1 2 4.86 49 0 53.7 46 29 7 40 66
Jake Rice L 26 2 2 4.91 33 0 36.7 35 20 5 24 35
Collin Snider R 28 3 3 4.95 52 1 56.3 60 31 7 31 43
Zach Davies R 31 3 5 4.98 21 21 99.3 105 55 14 45 76
Conor Grammes R 26 3 3 5.00 31 5 45.0 42 25 6 32 48
Jackson Goddard R 27 2 2 5.02 20 6 43.0 46 24 6 24 36
Mitchell Stumpo R 28 2 3 5.06 38 0 42.7 41 24 6 29 41
Jamison Hill R 25 5 7 5.08 24 23 102.7 107 58 13 59 73
Aaron Sanchez R 31 4 5 5.09 20 18 81.3 91 46 10 40 51
Deyni Olivero R 26 4 6 5.12 18 18 82.7 96 47 10 34 41
Chris Rodriguez R 25 1 3 5.12 22 8 45.7 48 26 6 25 37
Madison Bumgarner L 34 5 8 5.16 19 19 104.7 113 60 18 34 76
Marcos Tineo R 27 2 4 5.36 18 7 48.7 52 29 7 30 39
Ricky Karcher R 26 3 6 5.44 47 0 51.3 45 31 6 49 54
John Matthews R 26 2 3 5.51 28 3 50.7 54 31 7 29 38
Zach Barnes R 25 3 4 5.51 35 0 49.0 53 30 6 32 33
Endrys Briceno R 32 0 0 6.14 13 0 14.7 15 10 2 10 10
Hugh Fisher L 25 1 3 6.26 24 0 27.3 27 19 4 23 23

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Zac Gallen 186.3 8.5 2.7 1.1 7.1% 22.6% .277 118 3.98 85 3.5
Paul Sewald 55.0 10.8 3.1 1.3 8.3% 28.9% .284 117 3.89 86 0.7
Kevin Ginkel 60.0 9.9 3.6 1.1 9.4% 25.9% .286 117 3.87 86 0.6
Eduardo Rodriguez 138.0 8.8 2.8 1.0 7.4% 23.1% .306 115 3.81 87 2.5
Joe Mantiply 48.3 8.0 2.4 1.1 6.3% 20.8% .308 108 4.02 93 0.5
Peter Strzelecki 45.7 9.7 3.4 1.0 8.8% 25.4% .298 107 3.91 94 0.3
Miguel Castro 56.7 9.8 4.0 1.1 10.2% 25.4% .288 106 4.21 94 0.3
Brandon Pfaadt 147.3 8.7 2.2 1.2 5.9% 23.3% .299 106 3.87 94 2.1
Merrill Kelly 154.0 7.7 2.7 1.2 7.2% 20.3% .285 106 4.29 95 2.2
Nabil Crismatt 65.7 7.7 2.7 1.1 7.1% 19.8% .310 106 4.18 95 0.7
Drey Jameson 101.0 8.4 3.2 1.1 8.3% 21.7% .299 105 4.19 95 1.4
Andrew Saalfrank 64.7 9.7 4.5 1.0 11.3% 24.6% .294 104 4.07 96 0.3
Kyle Nelson 49.0 9.7 3.7 1.3 9.5% 25.2% .295 104 4.36 96 0.3
Luis Frías 70.7 9.3 4.1 1.0 10.4% 23.6% .302 103 4.06 97 0.7
Ryan Thompson 44.0 7.8 2.9 1.2 7.5% 20.3% .289 103 4.39 97 0.2
Slade Cecconi 126.7 7.2 2.3 1.1 6.2% 18.9% .291 102 4.30 98 1.6
Taylor Rashi 30.3 9.2 4.5 1.2 11.2% 23.1% .293 101 4.51 99 0.2
Blake Workman 41.0 7.9 2.6 1.1 6.9% 20.6% .300 101 4.18 99 0.2
Scott McGough 60.0 9.6 3.6 1.2 9.2% 24.5% .304 100 4.11 100 0.3
Christian Montes De Oca 55.0 7.4 3.6 1.1 8.9% 18.3% .293 99 4.64 101 0.1
Yu-Min Lin 107.3 8.4 3.8 1.0 9.6% 21.3% .296 98 4.35 102 1.2
Stephen Nogosek 39.7 8.6 4.1 1.1 10.3% 21.7% .304 98 4.49 103 0.2
Ryne Nelson 143.7 7.1 2.9 1.2 7.6% 18.5% .290 97 4.47 103 1.5
Tyler Gilbert 83.0 7.5 3.0 1.2 7.9% 19.5% .290 97 4.44 103 0.7
Austin Pope 64.0 8.2 3.5 1.1 8.9% 20.6% .306 96 4.43 104 0.4
Bryce Jarvis 107.7 7.6 4.0 1.1 10.0% 19.0% .296 95 4.58 105 0.9
Tommy Henry 111.7 6.9 3.6 1.0 9.2% 17.6% .289 95 4.54 105 1.0
Dylan Ray 100.7 7.2 3.3 1.1 8.5% 18.6% .292 94 4.48 106 0.9
Kyle Backhus 58.3 7.9 4.2 1.1 10.5% 19.8% .298 94 4.61 106 0.1
Corbin Martin 66.0 8.2 4.4 1.2 10.8% 20.3% .304 93 4.71 107 0.5
José Castillo 38.0 9.5 4.7 1.2 11.9% 23.8% .304 93 4.68 107 0.0
Blake Walston 135.3 6.3 4.1 0.9 10.3% 15.8% .297 93 4.63 108 1.2
Jeff Bain 63.3 6.7 2.7 1.1 6.9% 17.2% .303 92 4.55 108 0.4
Yilber Diaz 91.0 8.8 5.0 1.1 12.2% 21.3% .294 90 4.75 111 0.7
Peter Solomon 98.7 7.2 4.0 1.1 9.9% 17.8% .300 90 4.66 111 0.7
Tyler Zuber 36.7 9.3 5.2 1.2 12.8% 23.2% .286 90 4.76 111 -0.1
Will Mabrey 57.3 6.8 4.2 1.1 10.5% 16.7% .294 89 4.96 112 -0.1
Josh Green 68.7 5.5 2.9 1.0 7.3% 14.0% .301 89 4.81 112 0.1
Konnor Pilkington 82.0 7.8 5.0 1.1 12.4% 19.1% .296 89 4.94 112 0.5
Raffi Vizcaíno 45.7 9.3 5.9 1.2 14.1% 22.1% .298 89 5.01 113 -0.1
Luke Albright 101.7 7.6 5.0 1.1 12.1% 18.6% .300 88 4.90 114 0.6
Gerald Ogando 41.3 7.8 5.4 1.1 13.1% 18.8% .298 88 5.05 114 -0.2
Francisco Morales 56.0 9.6 6.4 1.0 15.2% 22.7% .293 87 4.97 115 0.1
Justin Martinez 53.7 11.1 6.7 1.2 16.1% 26.6% .298 86 5.01 116 -0.3
Jake Rice 36.7 8.6 5.9 1.2 14.2% 20.7% .294 86 5.33 117 -0.3
Collin Snider 56.3 6.9 5.0 1.1 12.0% 16.7% .303 85 5.21 118 -0.3
Zach Davies 99.3 6.9 4.1 1.3 10.2% 17.2% .298 84 4.98 119 0.4
Conor Grammes 45.0 9.6 6.4 1.2 15.0% 22.5% .300 84 5.39 119 -0.1
Jackson Goddard 43.0 7.5 5.0 1.3 12.0% 18.0% .308 84 5.21 119 0.0
Mitchell Stumpo 42.7 8.6 6.1 1.3 14.4% 20.4% .294 83 5.34 120 -0.3
Jamison Hill 102.7 6.4 5.2 1.1 12.4% 15.4% .293 83 5.44 121 0.3
Aaron Sanchez 81.3 5.6 4.4 1.1 10.8% 13.7% .303 83 5.37 121 0.2
Deyni Olivero 82.7 4.5 3.7 1.1 9.1% 10.9% .301 82 5.21 122 0.2
Chris Rodriguez 45.7 7.3 4.9 1.2 11.8% 17.5% .302 82 5.18 122 0.0
Madison Bumgarner 104.7 6.5 2.9 1.5 7.5% 16.7% .292 81 5.21 123 0.2
Marcos Tineo 48.7 7.2 5.5 1.3 12.9% 16.7% .304 78 5.62 128 -0.1
Ricky Karcher 51.3 9.5 8.6 1.1 19.2% 21.2% .287 77 5.83 129 -0.7
John Matthews 50.7 6.8 5.2 1.2 12.4% 16.3% .299 76 5.80 131 -0.4
Zach Barnes 49.0 6.1 5.9 1.1 13.6% 14.0% .299 76 5.77 131 -0.7
Endrys Briceno 14.7 6.1 6.1 1.2 14.5% 14.5% .283 69 6.32 146 -0.3
Hugh Fisher 27.3 7.6 7.6 1.3 16.9% 16.9% .288 67 6.88 149 -0.6

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3
Zac Gallen Sonny Gray Don Drysdale Jim Palmer
Paul Sewald Rafael Betancourt Blake Parker Kazuhiro Sasaki
Kevin Ginkel Ryan Tepera Pedro Báez Doug Corbett
Eduardo Rodriguez Jose Quintana Jim Kaat Eddie Neville
Joe Mantiply Bryan Eversgerd Bob Smith Paul Lindblad
Peter Strzelecki Jim Mann Rich Thompson Scott Bankhead
Miguel Castro Jose Veras Mike Hartley Steve Geltz
Brandon Pfaadt Jeff Weaver Reggie Cleveland Moose Haas
Merrill Kelly Ervin Santana Burleigh Grimes Bob Welch
Nabil Crismatt Erik Sabel Donovan Hand Spike Lundberg
Drey Jameson Tyler Mahle Jim Owens Juan Dominguez
Andrew Saalfrank Tony Cingrani Fred Green Chasen Shreve
Kyle Nelson Joe Harris Bobby Seay Jerry Garvin
Luis Frías Jim Ehrler Fernando Nieve 페르난도 Bruce Billings
Ryan Thompson Cris Carpenter Roy Lee Jackson Ken Sanders
Slade Cecconi Daniel Mengden John Wasdin Erasmo Ramirez
Taylor Rashi Fred Lasher Johnny Humphries Joey McLaughlin
Blake Workman Jeff Taglienti Bob Undorf Felix Roque
Scott McGough Bobby Bolin Vicente Padilla Ross Ohlendorf
Christian Montes De Oca Alex Burnett Paul Click Mike Dupree
Yu-Min Lin Dave Roberts Darold Knowles Mike Wallace
Stephen Nogosek Nate Field Bobby Thigpen Logan Ondrusek
Ryne Nelson Kyle Lohse Taylor Clarke Daniel Mengden
Tyler Gilbert Paul Kilgus David Huff 허프 Vic Lombardi
Austin Pope Fredy Deza Tim Layana Aaron Cotter
Bryce Jarvis Jeff Hoffman Allen Webster 웹스터 Tracy Stallard
Tommy Henry Neal Heaton Bruce Zimmermann Ken Reynolds
Dylan Ray Chad Durbin Brian Bannister Duane Richards
Kyle Backhus Huck Flener Jason Miller Barry Belanger
Corbin Martin Stacy Hollins Ed Assaf Adrian Alaniz
José Castillo Bob Cluck J.J. Pearsall Dave Lynch
Blake Walston Martin Perez Tom Glavine Shawn Morimando
Jeff Bain Mark Williams Dillon Tate Pedro Villarreal
Yilber Diaz Bill Risley Keyvius Sampson 샘슨 Corey Black
Peter Solomon Ryan Glynn 라이언 John Webb Mikey O’Brien
Tyler Zuber Eddie Gaillard Daryl Patterson Carlos Ramirez
Will Mabrey Lefty Hoerst Ron Cook Tony Mosley
Josh Green Anthony Swarzak 스와잭 Anthony Bass Pedro Villarreal
Konnor Pilkington Cory Stewart Bill Pulsipher Bill Henry
Raffi Vizcaíno Brandon Cunniff Pete Ruiz Grant Sides
Luke Albright Mark Sappington Mike Costello Dave Veres
Gerald Ogando Jeff Kennard Charles Miller Amilcar Correa
Francisco Morales Carlos Contreras Zach Jackson Jim Cosman
Justin Martinez Billy Taylor Juan Guzman Mike Wright
Jake Rice Bryan Harper Joel McKeon John Boling
Collin Snider Victor Alcantara Clint Everts Ryan Perry
Zach Davies Andy Hawkins Tim Melville Chris Tillman
Conor Grammes Chris Perry Paul Demny Tyler Bashlor
Jackson Goddard German Melendez Federico Baez Marlon Hubbard
Mitchell Stumpo Jose Ortega Kyle Schepel David Shafer
Jamison Hill Daniel Corcino Justin Haley 헤일리 Carlos Chantres
Aaron Sanchez Colin Rea Miguel Perez Logan Bawcom
Deyni Olivero Myles Jaye Evan Anundsen Jophery Brown
Chris Rodriguez Timothy Barr Cam Esslinger Jim Winn
Madison Bumgarner Scott McGregor Terry Mulholland Wei-Yin Chen
Marcos Tineo Zach Cates Cardoza Tucker D.J. Harris
Ricky Karcher Carlos Contreras Joel Johnston Joe Valentine
John Matthews Richard Ordway Pat Young Chris Clark
Zach Barnes Ryan Hafner Richard Ordway Bryton Trepagnier
Endrys Briceno Bill Wilson Dave Jolly Renie Martin
Hugh Fisher John Jones Douglas Britt Gorman Heimueller

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Zac Gallen .226 .287 .366 .238 .296 .399 4.6 2.2 3.10 4.17
Paul Sewald .233 .317 .411 .212 .271 .373 1.5 -0.1 2.59 4.91
Kevin Ginkel .225 .316 .412 .224 .290 .336 1.2 0.0 2.89 4.55
Eduardo Rodriguez .256 .316 .413 .248 .304 .396 3.4 1.3 3.12 4.45
Joe Mantiply .235 .297 .324 .274 .321 .468 0.9 0.0 3.23 4.68
Peter Strzelecki .260 .345 .416 .214 .291 .347 0.7 -0.3 3.23 5.15
Miguel Castro .242 .333 .407 .218 .305 .363 0.9 -0.3 3.27 4.83
Brandon Pfaadt .276 .330 .448 .224 .271 .371 3.3 0.8 3.32 4.77
Merrill Kelly .244 .306 .409 .250 .300 .413 3.1 1.3 3.50 4.55
Nabil Crismatt .271 .336 .441 .259 .310 .399 1.1 0.2 3.38 4.66
Drey Jameson .277 .350 .473 .224 .292 .338 2.1 0.7 3.49 4.63
Andrew Saalfrank .241 .337 .354 .226 .314 .375 1.0 -0.3 3.28 4.90
Kyle Nelson .234 .310 .328 .240 .324 .448 0.8 -0.2 3.24 4.98
Luis Frías .268 .341 .439 .220 .306 .340 1.3 0.0 3.40 4.93
Ryan Thompson .250 .320 .397 .250 .307 .433 0.6 -0.3 3.42 4.98
Slade Cecconi .260 .324 .435 .251 .300 .400 2.4 0.6 3.62 4.78
Taylor Rashi .250 .333 .464 .230 .324 .361 0.4 -0.1 3.58 5.06
Blake Workman .247 .313 .411 .261 .320 .409 0.5 -0.1 3.45 4.96
Scott McGough .246 .326 .412 .244 .305 .395 0.9 -0.4 3.31 5.26
Christian Montes De Oca .273 .365 .444 .239 .297 .385 0.4 -0.3 3.75 4.73
Yu-Min Lin .248 .340 .360 .244 .325 .405 2.0 0.4 3.76 4.91
Stephen Nogosek .247 .345 .411 .256 .326 .415 0.5 -0.2 3.62 5.16
Ryne Nelson .261 .320 .425 .250 .313 .412 2.5 0.7 3.81 4.79
Tyler Gilbert .241 .303 .370 .258 .321 .442 1.3 0.0 3.75 5.07
Austin Pope .259 .341 .431 .257 .325 .397 0.9 -0.1 3.68 5.01
Bryce Jarvis .258 .340 .411 .250 .328 .405 1.6 0.1 3.94 5.08
Tommy Henry .248 .326 .376 .255 .326 .414 1.8 0.2 3.92 5.10
Dylan Ray .251 .322 .406 .256 .328 .406 1.5 0.3 3.98 4.95
Kyle Backhus .236 .317 .319 .261 .346 .446 0.5 -0.3 3.82 5.08
Corbin Martin .264 .351 .426 .252 .327 .420 1.0 -0.1 3.87 5.16
José Castillo .245 .351 .347 .245 .342 .439 0.3 -0.4 3.81 5.28
Blake Walston .250 .354 .368 .266 .340 .413 1.9 0.4 4.14 5.00
Jeff Bain .280 .355 .467 .260 .310 .397 0.9 0.0 4.01 5.15
Yilber Diaz .248 .357 .408 .236 .335 .385 1.4 0.0 4.10 5.26
Peter Solomon .254 .338 .390 .266 .338 .439 1.3 0.0 4.17 5.26
Tyler Zuber .254 .367 .403 .216 .306 .405 0.3 -0.5 3.93 5.74
Will Mabrey .268 .338 .408 .256 .350 .417 0.3 -0.5 4.23 5.38
Josh Green .292 .359 .482 .259 .325 .388 0.5 -0.3 4.25 5.29
Konnor Pilkington .258 .358 .387 .250 .348 .421 1.1 -0.1 4.18 5.33
Raffi Vizcaíno .244 .374 .390 .242 .342 .421 0.3 -0.6 4.10 5.68
Luke Albright .263 .373 .413 .252 .336 .405 1.1 -0.1 4.36 5.35
Gerald Ogando .253 .356 .413 .253 .359 .402 0.1 -0.6 4.28 5.44
Francisco Morales .230 .366 .380 .230 .362 .363 0.7 -0.4 4.19 5.67
Justin Martinez .229 .373 .354 .222 .356 .407 0.3 -0.9 4.08 5.91
Jake Rice .239 .352 .348 .250 .371 .448 0.0 -0.6 4.33 5.77
Collin Snider .280 .398 .452 .258 .336 .402 0.1 -0.8 4.35 5.70
Zach Davies .254 .344 .422 .276 .339 .452 1.0 -0.3 4.46 5.64
Conor Grammes .256 .402 .476 .228 .351 .348 0.3 -0.6 4.39 5.78
Jackson Goddard .274 .384 .464 .261 .340 .420 0.3 -0.4 4.45 5.84
Mitchell Stumpo .247 .370 .416 .247 .358 .416 0.0 -0.8 4.41 6.14
Jamison Hill .262 .382 .432 .263 .350 .415 0.7 -0.4 4.73 5.69
Aaron Sanchez .274 .378 .439 .281 .356 .439 0.6 -0.3 4.62 5.65
Deyni Olivero .290 .363 .469 .280 .347 .423 0.6 -0.3 4.77 5.62
Chris Rodriguez .270 .375 .449 .258 .346 .409 0.3 -0.3 4.48 5.80
Madison Bumgarner .244 .303 .389 .277 .341 .483 0.9 -0.5 4.54 5.81
Marcos Tineo .283 .391 .435 .255 .358 .451 0.2 -0.6 4.80 6.24
Ricky Karcher .244 .424 .411 .217 .368 .349 -0.2 -1.3 4.67 6.47
John Matthews .267 .385 .419 .267 .377 .448 -0.1 -0.8 4.96 6.27
Zach Barnes .283 .402 .467 .260 .366 .394 -0.4 -1.1 5.03 6.18
Endrys Briceno .259 .394 .444 .258 .395 .387 -0.2 -0.5 5.56 7.37
Hugh Fisher .250 .429 .406 .253 .412 .453 -0.4 -0.9 5.60 7.36

Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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sadtrombonemember
3 months ago

The Braves are a clear #1 and the Dodgers are a clear #2 but I will probably take the D-Backs as #3 over the Phillies. The Phillies have more stars and a couple of big-power guys in Harper and Schwarber but the D-Backs have good depth and are younger so I like them maintain the gains the kids made last year. I’m not a big Gurriel fan and while I like Suarez a lot I recognize the risk, so you could make a strong case for the Phillies if you wanted to. But I like the D-Backs kids a lot better than Brandon Marsh and Bryson Stott and Alex Bohm.

Dodgerfan711
3 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Braves are a clear #1 based on projections…..that had the Dodgers at 85 wins last season. Dodgers passed the Braves when they brought in Yamamoto on top of Ohtani and Glasnow.

mikejuntmember
3 months ago
Reply to  Dodgerfan711

Whether the Braves are ahead of the Dodgers should ultimately come down to your opinion on things like which of Orlando Arcia or Gavin Lux will end up playing better, and anyone who thinks they’re certain about that sort of thing is probably overconfident.

sadtrombonemember
3 months ago
Reply to  Dodgerfan711

Yeah, sure, pencil in Tyler Glasnow and Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler and Emmet Sheehan in for 460 innings. They’re probably the second best team in major league baseball but the Braves are a superteam.

Dodgerfan711
3 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

You are really going to do this again? Same paper game that told you Padres were winning 100 last year. The club that will run out a Mookie,, Ohtani, Freeman and Smith top of the order is not a superteam?

sadtrombonemember
3 months ago
Reply to  Dodgerfan711

The Braves are going to hit Sean Murphy 7th. He had a 129 wRC+ last year, which is the #30 hitter in baseball with a minimum of 400 PAs. Their weak link in the lineup (who I legitimately am skeptical of) is a guy who put up a wRC+ of 108 last year. They also have a better rotation. It doesn’t get any better than this. They’re like the Dodgers were from 2019-2021. Just absolutely stacked from top to bottom.

Dodgerfan711
3 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

They are both the class of baseball but the idea Atlanta is clearly better is ridiculous. Dodgers purposefully took a step back last season to prepare for 2024 and the gap was 4 games. Braves rotation depth is not good. Dodgers have much more reinforcements while the Braves only realistic depth is a rushed AJSS or Waldrep

mikejuntmember
3 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Each team has 3 positions with legit questions/where depth charts project them under 2 wins presently

For Atlanta, it’s LF, DH, and SS
For LA, it’s LF, SS and RF

It will be interesting to see to what degree the 3 or so win game in batting in the depth charts closes when both teams have full ZIPS. I expect that it will a little bit. Basically the entire depth charts gap between the teams has to do with how their best players are projected: Depth charts has Betts at 4.6 and Acuna and 7.1.

I will be honest with you. I do not really expect a 2-5 win gap between those two players in 2024.

(it also only anticipates a 4.2 win season from Ohtani)

They are pretty within the margin of error of each other IMO, with the Braves looking a bit better presently because they have a public ZIPS which is included, and ZIPS is overall somewhat less pessimistic than steamer tends to be.

minny505
3 months ago
Reply to  mikejunt

How did an article about the Dbacks get hijacked by a **** measuring contest between the Braves and Dodgers?

mikejuntmember
3 months ago
Reply to  minny505

This team has 1 player projected to be a league average hitter probably

david k
3 months ago
Reply to  minny505

leave it to a Dodger fan to do that.

cm26
3 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Sure, but the Dodgers have 6 regular guys who put up a ~120 wRC+ last year too (and that’s not even counting Heyward). It’s really that 7th spot in the lineup that’s the difference between the 2 teams.

And I’d much rather have a top 3 of Mookie, Freeman, Ohtani than Acuna, Olsen, Riley. Like, I think that’s a pretty clear gap on paper, no?

According to RosterResource, their projected lineup against RHP includes batting Heyward 8th. He had a 121 wRC+ last year.

I’d probably still give Atlanta a minor edge, but it feels pretty close to me (at least, just talking offense here).

Last edited 3 months ago by cm26
Broken Batmember
3 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I also believe Sheehan is a key to Dodgers, and I think he might be something special. While Sad didn’t separate Sheehan, I think he also sees a chance for a SP 2 kind of guy. Sad, sound the taps or do you agree?