2024 ZiPS Projections: Colorado Rockies

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Colorado Rockies.

Batters

Let’s get the obvious out of the way: the Colorado Rockies will almost certainly be one of the worst teams in baseball in 2024, a prime candidate to get the top pick in next year’s draft lottery. There’s just no way around that conclusion, as the Rockies don’t have the same young depth or big league-quality role players that the Baltimore Orioles had on hand to make their initial burst in 2022 possible.

Still, the team has at least shown signs of life in their decision-making processes over the year or so. Gone — as far as I’m aware — is the ownership talk of winning 94 games. And young players are seeing the field. There were times Ezequiel Tovar struggled mightily at the plate during his rookie season, especially in the first month, but for once, the team avoided panicking and blocking a top prospect with the Chris Owings/José Iglesias-type veterans who hang around Triple-A looking for a big league job. And while it took the franchise a month to get him onto the roster, the Rockies looked for excuses to play Nolan Jones rather than searching for reasons not to. That paid off, with Jones enjoying an excellent rookie season that saw him improve more in the outfield than most expected. A lot of Colorado’s marginal prospects in their 20s struggled, but at least they played. None of Elehuris Montero, Alan Trejo, or Michael Toglia did all that well, but their playing time demonstrated a (possible) change in organizational thinking, as players like them have been marginalized in the past. Think back to Tom Murphy or Mike Tauchman during their time with the Rockies — the team could not have seemed less interested in seeing what they had.

Brenton Doyle rightly won a Gold Glove award, and the defense is probably mostly real; the ZiPS probability-based method for minor league performance had him at 11 runs better than average in 2022 despite this method being intentionally conservative because of its uncertainty. (For those curious, the highest-ranked outfielders in 2023 were Jorge Barrosa and Ceddanne Rafaela.) Doyle’s bat leaves much to be desired, but there’s a real argument to be made that given the size of the Coors outfield, this is a spot where the team should be willing to swap offense for defense.

ZiPS doesn’t expect Jones to regress too much in 2024 — the Sophomore Slump is a myth, but regression toward the mean is not — and projects considerable growth from Tovar, who was extremely young in his debut. ZiPS also expects a typical season from Ryan McMahon, and while it appears that Brendan Rodgers no longer has star upside, he’s a roughly league-average player when healthy.

That isn’t to say that this team has completely avoided mistakes. The Rockies actually made some trades near the deadline, which they almost never did in the past, but if they were ever going to get anything for Elias Díaz, it would have been last July. Coco Montes deserved a longer look, and I think he’d be an interesting pickup for someone (though he did pass through waivers in September).

As for the rest of the lineup… well, things don’t look great. At this point, neither Kris Bryant nor Charlie Blackmon project particularly well. This team is going to have one of the worst offenses in baseball again, and any long-term turnaround is going to require greater creativity than simply waiting for Zac Veen and Drew Romo, both of whom had disappointing 2023 seasons for a variety of reasons, to come and save the day.

Pitchers

Losing Germán Márquez and Antonio Senzatela to Tommy John makes this group look even worse than it is, but let’s be honest: their arm trouble isn’t what’s keeping the Rockies from being playoff relevant in 2024. Márquez seems the more likely to appear towards the end of the season, having had his procedure a couple months earlier than Senzatela in 2023. Of the pickups the team has made to eat some innings, Dakota Hudson is a groundball pitcher in front of what should be a solidly above-average infield defense, while Cal Quantrill typically isn’t crushable when he struggles. Along with Austin Gomber and Ryan Feltner, they’re basically here so that the games will end and the bullpen doesn’t have to throw 1,100 innings.

As for the bullpen… yeah. ZiPS likes Justin Lawrence, Jake Bird, and Jalen Beeks to be around average, with the rest of the relief corps — including any possible interesting minor leaguers — set to be off that standard. But again, like the Orioles from 2019-2021, the 2024 record isn’t the point. Instead of paying too much for relievers who were good two or three years ago, the Rockies should try to accumulate any halfway interesting young thrower under 25, even if they don’t have a clue, and see who has an epiphany. This is a method only lousy teams have the luxury to adopt.

Right now, ZiPS has Colorado in the 64-68 win range, depending on the assumptions you make about who will play, where, and when. The problem with the Rockies hasn’t just been that they’ve been a bad team, but that they’ve been a bad team with no idea of how bad teams become good ones. Being a bad team with a vision would be a tremendous upgrade over the club that frittered away the prime years of some good young talent during the disastrous Jeff Bridich era. And I’m not one who tends toward optimism with this franchise!

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Nolan Jones L 26 LF 552 480 77 133 29 3 22 84 65 155 14 2
Ryan McMahon L 29 3B 588 521 73 125 27 2 22 74 61 167 5 3
Ezequiel Tovar R 22 SS 588 552 75 143 32 4 17 76 28 142 11 4
Brendan Rodgers R 27 2B 417 383 49 107 21 2 12 51 27 81 0 1
Coco Montes R 27 2B 514 465 61 114 27 3 14 65 40 144 6 3
Brenton Doyle R 26 CF 484 451 59 106 17 4 14 61 25 163 18 4
Adael Amador B 21 SS 434 385 60 105 19 2 10 50 39 61 10 5
Jimmy Herron R 27 LF 484 429 63 108 21 3 11 59 44 101 17 4
Ryan Ritter R 23 SS 536 475 70 108 22 3 18 74 41 177 10 3
Sean Bouchard R 28 RF 333 294 45 75 19 3 12 46 34 88 5 2
Jacob Stallings R 34 C 312 276 27 67 15 0 5 32 29 69 0 1
Braxton Fulford R 25 C 354 310 46 73 17 1 7 45 27 94 4 2
Kris Bryant R 32 RF 402 356 53 96 23 1 13 47 38 84 2 1
Alan Trejo R 28 2B 366 340 43 85 22 2 10 47 20 86 4 3
Elehuris Montero R 25 1B 484 442 59 113 21 2 20 71 30 132 0 1
Hunter Stovall R 27 2B 419 386 45 100 18 3 5 43 26 78 9 4
Yonathan Daza R 30 CF 347 321 38 93 16 2 3 33 18 55 3 3
Hunter Goodman R 24 1B 541 495 68 124 33 2 24 87 34 149 1 1
Willie MacIver R 27 C 336 298 31 64 14 1 6 35 29 99 8 3
Charlie Blackmon L 37 RF 440 394 53 107 21 4 9 52 34 72 3 1
Braiden Ward L 25 CF 318 271 49 63 9 2 1 38 20 77 25 5
Ronaiker Palma R 24 C 251 234 25 60 8 1 1 20 10 33 2 2
Sterlin Thompson L 23 3B 398 363 44 95 22 1 9 51 24 84 8 2
Roman Quinn B 31 CF 158 133 19 26 6 2 2 14 16 58 9 2
Jack Blomgren R 25 2B 240 208 28 48 8 2 3 29 17 73 8 3
Jordan Beck R 23 LF 548 496 61 121 29 1 15 65 50 148 10 3
Connor Kaiser R 27 SS 331 296 43 62 13 2 6 33 31 98 7 1
Elias Díaz R 33 C 417 384 41 99 20 1 12 52 28 88 0 1
Aaron Schunk R 26 3B 479 444 51 107 21 3 9 53 27 129 6 4
Zach Kokoska L 25 1B 337 304 40 73 15 2 9 44 22 87 9 4
Cole Tucker B 27 CF 359 322 42 76 15 3 4 34 33 89 5 3
Drew Romo B 22 C 413 379 41 97 18 4 7 48 23 83 5 4
Warming Bernabel R 22 3B 390 368 45 95 21 1 8 45 15 77 3 2
Yorvis Torrealba R 26 LF 151 138 21 35 7 0 1 14 10 29 6 3
Daniel Cope R 27 DH 173 156 15 38 7 1 3 19 14 50 0 1
Julio Carreras R 24 SS 459 417 52 99 23 3 5 46 27 113 8 3
Jameson Hannah L 26 RF 257 234 28 62 13 2 2 25 18 57 6 1
Kyle Datres R 28 2B 380 333 42 75 12 2 9 44 35 103 11 2
Bret Boswell L 29 3B 293 265 27 55 13 2 6 30 25 98 2 1
Yanquiel Fernandez L 21 RF 545 513 60 126 27 3 17 70 25 146 1 1
Zac Veen L 22 RF 389 351 41 84 16 3 7 39 32 96 22 4
Niko Decolati R 26 RF 333 293 42 65 11 1 3 31 30 90 8 3
AJ Lewis R 26 1B 251 214 23 42 11 0 3 28 23 77 1 2
Trevor Boone R 26 RF 200 184 20 35 8 3 5 23 12 95 1 1
Grayson Greiner R 31 C 167 152 14 28 6 0 3 16 12 68 0 1
Jonathan Morales R 29 1B 366 338 31 84 14 0 7 35 22 63 0 1
Michael Toglia B 25 1B 530 476 59 105 22 3 17 63 48 155 4 2
Nic Kent R 24 2B 422 381 42 93 19 1 5 41 23 83 5 4
Eddy Diaz R 24 2B 378 344 44 81 12 3 2 35 19 88 12 9
Bladimir Restituyo R 22 CF 470 444 56 113 19 3 9 53 7 96 12 6
Colin Simpson L 27 DH 287 263 28 59 14 2 6 31 21 86 1 1
Harold Castro L 30 2B 349 329 34 91 16 1 5 42 14 73 1 1
Taylor Snyder R 29 3B 347 320 39 67 14 2 10 38 23 119 7 2
Grant Lavigne L 24 1B 517 458 48 106 19 4 9 55 49 146 2 2
Benny Montgomery R 21 CF 481 443 51 103 20 3 7 49 31 151 9 3
Daniel Montano L 25 LF 413 368 40 85 16 5 6 40 39 123 3 2

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA RC
Nolan Jones 552 .277 .368 .488 121 .210 .366 6 3.1 .367 90
Ryan McMahon 588 .240 .321 .426 93 .186 .310 11 2.3 .324 74
Ezequiel Tovar 588 .259 .300 .424 87 .165 .321 10 2.2 .311 74
Brendan Rodgers 417 .279 .333 .439 100 .159 .328 1 1.4 .334 56
Coco Montes 514 .245 .311 .406 86 .161 .326 3 1.0 .312 61
Brenton Doyle 484 .235 .280 .384 71 .149 .336 11 0.9 .287 54
Adael Amador 434 .273 .345 .410 97 .138 .303 -6 0.9 .330 59
Jimmy Herron 484 .252 .331 .392 88 .140 .306 7 0.9 .317 61
Ryan Ritter 536 .227 .303 .400 82 .173 .321 0 0.9 .306 61
Sean Bouchard 333 .255 .336 .463 106 .207 .325 1 0.9 .344 48
Jacob Stallings 312 .243 .319 .351 76 .109 .307 5 0.9 .299 31
Braxton Fulford 354 .235 .319 .365 79 .129 .316 2 0.8 .304 38
Kris Bryant 402 .270 .351 .449 108 .180 .320 -5 0.6 .347 57
Alan Trejo 366 .250 .296 .415 83 .165 .307 2 0.5 .306 44
Elehuris Montero 484 .256 .310 .448 95 .192 .321 3 0.5 .325 62
Hunter Stovall 419 .259 .308 .360 74 .101 .314 5 0.4 .293 46
Yonathan Daza 347 .290 .330 .380 86 .090 .342 0 0.4 .311 42
Hunter Goodman 541 .251 .307 .471 99 .220 .311 -2 0.3 .330 72
Willie MacIver 336 .215 .296 .329 63 .114 .301 4 0.3 .279 32
Charlie Blackmon 440 .272 .339 .414 96 .142 .313 -2 0.3 .328 56
Braiden Ward 318 .232 .334 .292 66 .059 .321 0 0.2 .291 34
Ronaiker Palma 251 .256 .290 .312 58 .056 .295 5 0.2 .266 22
Sterlin Thompson 398 .262 .322 .402 88 .140 .319 -6 0.2 .315 49
Roman Quinn 158 .195 .299 .316 61 .120 .329 3 0.2 .278 15
Jack Blomgren 240 .231 .315 .332 70 .101 .341 1 0.1 .291 25
Jordan Beck 548 .244 .312 .397 84 .153 .318 2 0.1 .310 65
Connor Kaiser 331 .209 .288 .328 61 .118 .292 3 0.1 .274 30
Elias Díaz 417 .258 .309 .409 86 .151 .306 -10 0.0 .311 49
Aaron Schunk 479 .241 .288 .363 69 .122 .320 5 0.0 .283 49
Zach Kokoska 337 .240 .307 .391 81 .151 .308 3 0.0 .306 40
Cole Tucker 359 .236 .307 .339 69 .102 .314 1 -0.1 .287 36
Drew Romo 413 .256 .301 .380 77 .124 .311 -6 -0.2 .295 46
Warming Bernabel 390 .258 .295 .386 76 .128 .307 -2 -0.2 .295 43
Yorvis Torrealba 151 .254 .313 .326 68 .072 .315 0 -0.3 .286 17
Daniel Cope 173 .244 .312 .359 75 .115 .340 0 -0.3 .297 18
Julio Carreras 459 .237 .292 .343 66 .106 .314 -2 -0.4 .280 45
Jameson Hannah 257 .265 .320 .363 79 .098 .343 -2 -0.4 .301 29
Kyle Datres 380 .225 .313 .354 75 .129 .299 -7 -0.4 .296 40
Bret Boswell 293 .208 .280 .340 61 .132 .304 1 -0.4 .274 26
Yanquiel Fernandez 545 .246 .283 .409 78 .164 .311 3 -0.5 .295 60
Zac Veen 389 .239 .306 .362 74 .123 .310 -2 -0.5 .294 45
Niko Decolati 333 .222 .307 .297 60 .075 .310 4 -0.5 .275 30
AJ Lewis 251 .196 .308 .290 58 .093 .291 2 -0.6 .277 20
Trevor Boone 200 .190 .250 .348 54 .158 .357 2 -0.7 .260 17
Grayson Greiner 167 .184 .253 .283 40 .099 .309 -2 -0.7 .241 11
Jonathan Morales 366 .249 .295 .352 69 .104 .287 2 -0.8 .284 36
Michael Toglia 530 .221 .294 .387 76 .166 .289 1 -0.8 .296 56
Nic Kent 422 .244 .296 .339 66 .094 .300 -3 -0.8 .280 41
Eddy Diaz 378 .235 .290 .305 56 .070 .311 1 -0.8 .266 37
Bladimir Restituyo 470 .255 .271 .372 66 .117 .307 -2 -0.9 .276 50
Colin Simpson 287 .224 .282 .361 67 .137 .310 0 -0.9 .279 27
Harold Castro 349 .277 .305 .377 77 .100 .343 -10 -0.9 .297 39
Taylor Snyder 347 .209 .265 .359 61 .150 .298 -4 -1.0 .272 33
Grant Lavigne 517 .231 .314 .349 74 .118 .320 0 -1.0 .295 51
Benny Montgomery 481 .233 .291 .339 64 .106 .337 -5 -1.0 .279 47
Daniel Montano 413 .231 .304 .351 71 .120 .331 -3 -1.0 .289 41

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Nolan Jones Rick Monday Willie Crawford Norm Siebern
Ryan McMahon Greg Norton Jeff Larish Jack Howell
Ezequiel Tovar Oswaldo Cabrera Alex Gonzalez Corey Hart
Brendan Rodgers Jake Noll Ramon Martinez Julio Gotay
Coco Montes Jeff Moronko Jim Command Casey Blake
Brenton Doyle Reggie Abercrombie Dick Smith César Hernández
Adael Amador Luis Alicea Geraldo Perdomo Mike Woodard
Jimmy Herron Phillip Ervin Eric Owens Terry Bradshaw
Ryan Ritter Josh Fields Billy Consolo Alex Gonzalez
Sean Bouchard Paul Jernigan Fred Rico John Briggs
Jacob Stallings Jeff Reed Chris Gimenez Bob Swift
Braxton Fulford Jayhawk Owens Edwin Marquez Jakson Reetz
Kris Bryant Clyde Barnhart Orlando Merced Ira Flagstead
Alan Trejo Scott Kingery Omar Infante Foster Castleman
Elehuris Montero Rich Murray Gino Kinchen Rogelio Alvarez
Hunter Stovall Ray Olmedo Brendan Ryan Pedro Chavez
Yonathan Daza Juan Delis Ken Woods Stan Johnson
Hunter Goodman Mike Fitzgerald Gail Harris Richie Sexson
Willie MacIver Barry Winford Dennis Pelfrey Joe Pignatano
Charlie Blackmon Jack Tobin Max Flack Charlie Jamieson
Braiden Ward Dan Motl Antoan Richardson William Ray
Ronaiker Palma Carlos Ruiz Jack Bowen Tom Zimmer
Sterlin Thompson J.P. Roberge Billy Smith Jared Triolo
Roman Quinn Chris Powell Milt Cuyler Dick Smith
Jack Blomgren Jason Brett David Dalton Kris Goodman
Jordan Beck Chris Knabenshue Glenn Owens Marvin Garrison
Connor Kaiser Brett King Jeremy Sy Juan Bell
Elias Díaz Harry Saferight Pat Borders Matt Wieters
Aaron Schunk Francisco Martinez Eddie Pye Kristopher Negrón
Zach Kokoska Anthony Seratelli Sil Campusano Kyle Colligan
Cole Tucker Jason Maas Evan Marzilli Aaron Cain
Drew Romo Phil Avlas John Hicks Wilkin Castillo
Warming Bernabel Robert Shelton Jim Pamlanye Shane Letterio
Yorvis Torrealba Kevin Reynolds Scott Stetson Kit Putnam
Daniel Cope Ronnie Farkas Wally Backman Gerardo Avila
Julio Carreras Blake Davis Johnnie LeMaster Tommy Manzella
Jameson Hannah Steve Bieser Julio Peguero Robert Belford
Kyle Datres Scott Earl Luis Guance Dave Hirtz
Bret Boswell Bob Frazier Harry Riconda Vic Harris
Yanquiel Fernandez Mike McDonald Don Dillard Nelson Gardner
Zac Veen Larry Shaw Corey Adamson Duane Walker
Niko Decolati Carlton Steele Larry Blackwell Scott Buss
AJ Lewis Jeremy Schied Carlos Lopez Doak Jones
Trevor Boone Runey Davis Danny Simpson Logan Wood
Grayson Greiner John Orton Alan Probst Marc Sullivan
Jonathan Morales Brian Traxler Freddie Thon Tommy Peterman
Michael Toglia Charles Howard Jim Koranda Glen Merklen
Nic Kent Dan Kaczrowski Eric King Chris Barnwell
Eddy Diaz Robbie Hudson David Rivera Demetrius Heath
Bladimir Restituyo Johan Rojas Rick Bosetti Doug Glanville
Colin Simpson Steven Caseres Brian Turner Gabe Snyder
Harold Castro Marco Hernández Jimmy Jordan Jim Glover
Taylor Snyder Matt Hagen Aaron Sisk Tye Waller
Grant Lavigne Jason Turner Ryan Aguilar Mark Chasey
Benny Montgomery Johnny Jeter Edward Ovalle Alfred Facchini
Daniel Montano Dusty Rhodes Jameson Fisher Ross Jones

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Nolan Jones .304 .394 .543 139 4.3 .248 .340 .434 101 1.7
Ryan McMahon .265 .347 .484 113 3.6 .212 .293 .372 75 0.9
Ezequiel Tovar .285 .325 .484 107 3.6 .234 .276 .377 69 0.9
Brendan Rodgers .311 .363 .492 122 2.4 .253 .306 .384 82 0.4
Coco Montes .271 .334 .461 102 2.0 .215 .281 .356 66 -0.2
Brenton Doyle .264 .308 .438 91 2.1 .207 .255 .335 53 -0.2
Adael Amador .301 .371 .463 116 1.9 .242 .313 .364 77 -0.1
Jimmy Herron .280 .358 .444 107 2.1 .225 .301 .343 71 -0.1
Ryan Ritter .258 .332 .465 106 2.4 .201 .280 .347 64 -0.3
Sean Bouchard .283 .364 .526 127 1.7 .233 .314 .417 89 0.2
Jacob Stallings .274 .352 .405 97 1.7 .208 .290 .305 58 0.2
Braxton Fulford .269 .350 .421 99 1.6 .203 .292 .313 59 0.0
Kris Bryant .297 .377 .503 127 1.5 .235 .321 .394 84 -0.5
Alan Trejo .280 .325 .476 103 1.4 .222 .268 .367 64 -0.3
Elehuris Montero .285 .335 .511 117 1.7 .229 .283 .398 76 -0.6
Hunter Stovall .288 .339 .409 94 1.5 .228 .278 .319 55 -0.5
Yonathan Daza .323 .362 .424 104 1.2 .258 .300 .339 69 -0.4
Hunter Goodman .280 .335 .532 119 1.6 .225 .280 .414 78 -1.1
Willie MacIver .249 .331 .379 85 1.2 .184 .264 .279 43 -0.6
Charlie Blackmon .305 .369 .472 116 1.3 .241 .309 .367 75 -0.8
Braiden Ward .265 .362 .330 82 0.9 .205 .311 .252 52 -0.4
Ronaiker Palma .293 .328 .359 79 0.9 .220 .255 .273 39 -0.4
Sterlin Thompson .288 .348 .455 107 1.1 .228 .291 .354 68 -0.7
Roman Quinn .227 .331 .375 84 0.6 .166 .263 .266 40 -0.2
Jack Blomgren .263 .340 .388 89 0.6 .202 .285 .291 52 -0.4
Jordan Beck .270 .339 .448 103 1.3 .216 .281 .344 63 -1.4
Connor Kaiser .237 .318 .392 82 0.9 .179 .259 .281 42 -0.8
Elias Díaz .288 .338 .470 107 1.0 .228 .282 .350 65 -1.1
Aaron Schunk .273 .319 .418 92 1.3 .214 .258 .317 52 -1.1
Zach Kokoska .272 .339 .452 103 0.9 .214 .281 .343 63 -0.8
Cole Tucker .264 .335 .385 86 0.6 .208 .278 .295 52 -0.9
Drew Romo .286 .328 .439 100 0.9 .225 .271 .330 58 -1.2
Warming Bernabel .287 .322 .439 96 0.8 .229 .269 .343 59 -1.0
Yorvis Torrealba .281 .340 .370 85 0.0 .227 .287 .290 52 -0.6
Daniel Cope .272 .341 .410 93 0.0 .206 .275 .302 50 -0.8
Julio Carreras .265 .321 .384 83 0.7 .209 .269 .296 49 -1.3
Jameson Hannah .293 .347 .408 96 0.2 .235 .288 .325 61 -1.0
Kyle Datres .253 .345 .408 94 0.5 .193 .284 .302 54 -1.4
Bret Boswell .240 .313 .411 86 0.5 .174 .250 .290 40 -1.1
Yanquiel Fernandez .272 .308 .459 96 0.7 .219 .258 .356 60 -1.8
Zac Veen .272 .334 .424 97 0.5 .209 .276 .313 57 -1.4
Niko Decolati .254 .336 .339 76 0.1 .190 .277 .252 40 -1.3
AJ Lewis .232 .339 .343 79 -0.1 .163 .277 .244 38 -1.2
Trevor Boone .222 .285 .416 78 -0.1 .157 .223 .284 32 -1.2
Grayson Greiner .217 .286 .337 61 -0.3 .154 .221 .235 21 -1.1
Jonathan Morales .280 .327 .400 88 0.1 .221 .269 .309 51 -1.6
Michael Toglia .251 .320 .435 96 0.4 .192 .267 .332 58 -2.1
Nic Kent .275 .325 .386 85 0.2 .216 .268 .294 49 -1.7
Eddy Diaz .261 .320 .350 74 0.0 .206 .262 .265 39 -1.6
Bladimir Restituyo .283 .300 .414 85 0.3 .227 .244 .333 51 -1.7
Colin Simpson .253 .310 .421 87 -0.1 .198 .253 .320 50 -1.5
Harold Castro .307 .336 .421 96 0.0 .248 .276 .332 58 -1.7
Taylor Snyder .238 .293 .429 85 0.1 .175 .229 .306 40 -1.9
Grant Lavigne .258 .343 .402 91 0.2 .201 .288 .306 56 -2.1
Benny Montgomery .262 .318 .387 83 0.1 .207 .264 .295 48 -2.0
Daniel Montano .259 .335 .399 90 -0.1 .200 .275 .302 52 -2.0

Batters – Projected Splits
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R
Nolan Jones .269 .352 .469 .281 .376 .497
Ryan McMahon .227 .304 .407 .245 .329 .434
Ezequiel Tovar .270 .309 .446 .253 .295 .411
Brendan Rodgers .293 .348 .488 .273 .326 .415
Coco Montes .250 .323 .422 .242 .304 .396
Brenton Doyle .244 .290 .406 .229 .273 .369
Adael Amador .272 .339 .417 .274 .348 .406
Jimmy Herron .253 .335 .400 .251 .328 .387
Ryan Ritter .227 .304 .407 .228 .303 .397
Sean Bouchard .260 .348 .472 .251 .328 .456
Jacob Stallings .245 .327 .362 .242 .315 .346
Braxton Fulford .237 .318 .368 .235 .320 .362
Kris Bryant .277 .358 .479 .267 .348 .439
Alan Trejo .252 .300 .439 .249 .293 .398
Elehuris Montero .264 .319 .483 .250 .304 .425
Hunter Stovall .269 .323 .372 .253 .298 .353
Yonathan Daza .294 .339 .394 .288 .326 .373
Hunter Goodman .266 .324 .509 .242 .298 .451
Willie MacIver .221 .304 .344 .210 .289 .318
Charlie Blackmon .269 .333 .387 .273 .342 .425
Braiden Ward .226 .337 .286 .235 .333 .294
Ronaiker Palma .271 .308 .306 .248 .280 .315
Sterlin Thompson .252 .316 .369 .265 .324 .415
Roman Quinn .205 .300 .364 .191 .298 .292
Jack Blomgren .240 .321 .347 .226 .311 .323
Jordan Beck .250 .326 .410 .241 .306 .391
Connor Kaiser .208 .300 .330 .211 .281 .326
Elias Díaz .262 .316 .418 .256 .306 .405
Aaron Schunk .243 .295 .379 .240 .284 .353
Zach Kokoska .229 .302 .354 .245 .310 .409
Cole Tucker .243 .305 .336 .233 .308 .340
Drew Romo .259 .301 .385 .254 .301 .377
Warming Bernabel .267 .307 .397 .253 .288 .380
Yorvis Torrealba .259 .328 .310 .250 .302 .338
Daniel Cope .250 .333 .357 .240 .300 .360
Julio Carreras .242 .297 .354 .234 .289 .336
Jameson Hannah .256 .306 .372 .269 .327 .359
Kyle Datres .235 .321 .391 .220 .309 .335
Bret Boswell .207 .278 .354 .208 .281 .333
Yanquiel Fernandez .238 .271 .384 .249 .288 .422
Zac Veen .239 .306 .359 .239 .306 .364
Niko Decolati .224 .311 .290 .220 .305 .301
AJ Lewis .207 .316 .293 .189 .303 .288
Trevor Boone .194 .256 .347 .188 .246 .348
Grayson Greiner .184 .245 .286 .184 .257 .282
Jonathan Morales .254 .312 .365 .245 .285 .344
Michael Toglia .216 .284 .389 .223 .301 .385
Nic Kent .248 .303 .349 .242 .292 .333
Eddy Diaz .248 .302 .321 .227 .281 .295
Bladimir Restituyo .262 .278 .372 .250 .266 .371
Colin Simpson .217 .267 .361 .228 .289 .361
Harold Castro .260 .286 .342 .281 .311 .387
Taylor Snyder .215 .278 .380 .206 .257 .347
Grant Lavigne .224 .299 .314 .235 .322 .368
Benny Montgomery .244 .306 .359 .226 .283 .328
Daniel Montano .224 .286 .336 .235 .314 .359

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Germán Márquez R 29 7 10 4.75 24 24 136.3 135 72 18 46 117
Cal Quantrill R 29 6 8 4.93 26 23 127.7 140 70 19 42 83
Dakota Hudson R 29 7 9 4.51 25 21 123.7 129 62 15 48 75
Anthony Molina R 22 5 7 5.09 27 26 120.3 143 68 17 36 71
Kyle Freeland L 31 7 10 5.24 26 26 137.3 161 80 22 41 87
Tanner Gordon R 26 7 10 5.14 24 23 117.3 137 67 19 32 77
Jeff Criswell R 25 5 8 5.22 25 23 112.0 118 65 17 49 93
Carson Palmquist L 23 5 7 5.01 20 20 93.3 93 52 14 38 90
Joe Rock L 23 5 7 5.14 22 22 98.0 105 56 14 40 77
Antonio Senzatela R 29 4 6 5.09 19 19 99.0 117 56 13 29 61
Gabriel Hughes R 22 6 8 4.99 18 18 83.0 89 46 12 30 65
Austin Gomber L 30 6 9 5.32 24 21 118.3 130 70 20 37 86
Ryan Feltner R 27 5 6 5.15 20 19 92.7 96 53 14 38 83
Nick Bush L 27 3 5 5.28 15 15 75.0 84 44 13 19 56
Chris McMahon R 25 3 4 5.31 17 16 78.0 92 46 12 24 51
Connor Seabold R 28 4 6 5.36 27 18 100.7 112 60 16 28 87
Connor Van Scoyoc R 24 4 8 5.56 20 19 102.0 116 63 16 42 68
Peter Lambert R 27 4 6 5.38 27 17 95.3 103 57 15 38 78
Justin Lawrence R 29 5 5 4.54 65 0 69.3 63 35 8 32 76
Jalen Beeks L 30 3 4 4.97 42 7 63.3 68 35 10 25 61
Jake Bird R 28 3 4 4.75 61 2 77.7 79 41 10 29 67
Ty Blach L 33 3 5 5.48 26 13 87.0 107 53 14 22 56
Mitchell Kilkenny R 27 4 6 5.47 18 15 72.3 87 44 11 22 40
Case Williams R 22 4 9 5.80 22 22 104.0 124 67 17 45 62
Ryan Rolison L 26 2 4 5.62 13 13 57.7 67 36 10 23 42
Andrew Quezada R 27 4 7 5.75 21 17 87.7 107 56 14 34 49
Karl Kauffmann R 26 5 9 5.87 25 21 112.0 131 73 16 52 69
Josh Rogers L 29 5 9 5.80 25 13 94.7 114 61 18 32 48
Will Ethridge R 26 3 5 5.81 18 13 66.7 77 43 10 27 41
Lucas Gilbreath L 28 2 4 5.40 29 7 53.3 55 32 8 32 51
Noah Davis R 27 3 7 5.92 21 20 89.7 99 59 14 44 67
Tyler Kinley R 33 2 2 5.06 38 1 37.3 37 21 6 15 36
Blake Goldsberry R 27 2 2 5.17 31 2 38.3 41 22 6 15 31
Dylan Spain R 26 2 2 5.11 25 2 37.0 42 21 6 11 26
Victor Vodnik R 24 2 3 5.24 37 2 46.3 47 27 7 26 44
Gavin Hollowell R 26 1 2 5.02 43 0 52.0 51 29 8 21 53
Dugan Darnell R 27 3 5 5.07 39 0 49.7 51 28 7 21 46
Nick Mears R 27 2 3 5.03 39 0 39.3 37 22 6 24 44
Colten Schmidt L 28 1 2 5.93 12 5 30.3 38 20 5 10 16
Thomas Ponticelli R 27 3 5 5.68 36 6 63.3 72 40 10 29 43
Seth Halvorsen R 24 1 2 4.96 17 0 16.3 18 9 2 5 10
Austin Kitchen L 27 3 4 5.31 37 2 57.7 69 34 9 17 34
Chase Anderson R 36 2 5 6.21 18 14 66.7 76 46 13 31 51
Reagan Todd L 28 3 4 5.12 40 0 38.7 38 22 6 21 40
Matt Koch R 33 2 5 5.58 48 3 59.7 68 37 10 21 48
Chance Adams R 29 1 2 5.77 26 4 43.7 51 28 7 16 28
Mike Ruff R 26 3 5 6.25 22 15 72.0 83 50 12 37 46
Geoff Hartlieb R 30 3 4 5.52 34 1 44.0 48 27 7 20 35
Eli Lingos L 28 2 3 5.62 30 2 49.7 58 31 8 22 32
Kyle Johnston R 27 2 4 5.88 32 6 52.0 58 34 8 30 38
Stephen Jones R 26 2 4 5.25 48 0 58.3 62 34 9 26 51
Daniel Bard R 39 3 4 5.44 46 0 44.7 43 27 7 28 46
Adam McKillican R 26 1 2 5.67 25 0 33.3 37 21 5 14 23
Ben Braymer L 30 3 5 6.39 16 14 62.0 76 44 11 34 35
PJ Poulin L 27 2 4 5.40 38 0 50.0 54 30 7 24 38
Phillips Valdez R 32 2 6 6.33 25 9 54.0 63 38 9 30 36
Alec Barger R 26 2 4 5.66 36 1 47.7 52 30 8 26 41
Matt Carasiti R 32 1 3 5.86 36 1 43.0 49 28 7 20 36
Brendan Hardy R 24 1 2 5.79 24 0 28.0 26 18 4 22 31
Jacob Kostyshock R 26 0 1 6.14 22 0 22.0 25 15 4 11 16
Evan Justice L 25 2 5 5.79 45 0 42.0 40 27 7 29 48
Will Gaddis R 28 2 4 6.41 25 5 53.3 70 38 9 25 22
Michael Petersen R 30 1 3 6.27 38 0 37.3 40 26 7 24 33
Bryce McGowan R 24 1 2 6.21 39 0 42.0 45 29 7 30 36
Riley Pint R 26 2 4 5.90 43 0 50.3 46 33 8 39 57
Nick Kennedy L 28 1 2 6.17 37 0 42.3 49 29 7 24 27
Kyle Wilcox R 30 2 6 6.21 41 0 42.0 42 29 7 34 42
Nick Kuzia R 28 3 5 6.04 40 0 47.7 53 32 8 27 35
Shelby Lackey R 26 0 2 7.33 24 0 23.3 24 19 4 22 20

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Germán Márquez 136.3 7.7 3.0 1.2 7.8% 19.9% .293 100 4.33 100 1.6
Cal Quantrill 127.7 5.9 3.0 1.3 7.5% 14.8% .294 96 5.06 104 1.3
Dakota Hudson 123.7 5.5 3.5 1.1 8.8% 13.8% .285 93 4.95 107 1.2
Anthony Molina 120.3 5.3 2.7 1.3 6.7% 13.2% .310 93 4.86 107 1.2
Kyle Freeland 137.3 5.7 2.7 1.4 6.8% 14.4% .307 91 5.10 110 1.1
Tanner Gordon 117.3 5.9 2.5 1.5 6.2% 14.9% .307 92 4.94 108 1.0
Jeff Criswell 112.0 7.5 3.9 1.4 9.8% 18.5% .301 91 4.99 110 1.0
Carson Palmquist 93.3 8.7 3.7 1.4 9.3% 22.1% .300 95 4.85 106 0.9
Joe Rock 98.0 7.1 3.7 1.3 9.2% 17.6% .302 92 4.95 108 0.9
Antonio Senzatela 99.0 5.5 2.6 1.2 6.6% 14.0% .313 93 4.76 107 0.9
Gabriel Hughes 83.0 7.0 3.3 1.3 8.2% 17.9% .302 95 4.72 105 0.9
Austin Gomber 118.3 6.5 2.8 1.5 7.2% 16.7% .297 89 5.01 112 0.9
Ryan Feltner 92.7 8.1 3.7 1.4 9.3% 20.3% .304 92 4.76 108 0.9
Nick Bush 75.0 6.7 2.3 1.6 5.9% 17.3% .303 90 4.82 111 0.6
Chris McMahon 78.0 5.9 2.8 1.4 6.9% 14.7% .311 89 4.99 112 0.6
Connor Seabold 100.7 7.8 2.5 1.4 6.3% 19.7% .316 88 4.70 113 0.6
Connor Van Scoyoc 102.0 6.0 3.7 1.4 9.0% 14.6% .303 85 5.46 117 0.6
Peter Lambert 95.3 7.4 3.6 1.4 9.0% 18.4% .304 88 5.05 113 0.6
Justin Lawrence 69.3 9.9 4.2 1.0 10.6% 25.1% .301 104 4.25 96 0.5
Jalen Beeks 63.3 8.7 3.6 1.4 8.8% 21.6% .317 95 4.71 105 0.5
Jake Bird 77.7 7.8 3.4 1.2 8.6% 19.8% .301 100 4.59 100 0.4
Ty Blach 87.0 5.8 2.3 1.4 5.7% 14.5% .320 87 4.92 116 0.4
Mitchell Kilkenny 72.3 5.0 2.7 1.4 6.8% 12.4% .308 87 5.20 115 0.4
Case Williams 104.0 5.4 3.9 1.5 9.4% 13.0% .307 82 5.63 122 0.4
Ryan Rolison 57.7 6.6 3.6 1.6 8.8% 16.1% .310 84 5.35 118 0.3
Andrew Quezada 87.7 5.0 3.5 1.4 8.4% 12.2% .310 83 5.51 121 0.3
Karl Kauffmann 112.0 5.5 4.2 1.3 10.1% 13.4% .308 81 5.46 124 0.3
Josh Rogers 94.7 4.6 3.0 1.7 7.6% 11.3% .296 82 5.85 122 0.2
Will Ethridge 66.7 5.5 3.6 1.4 8.9% 13.5% .303 82 5.46 122 0.2
Lucas Gilbreath 53.3 8.6 5.4 1.4 13.0% 20.7% .309 88 5.26 114 0.2
Noah Davis 89.7 6.7 4.4 1.4 10.8% 16.4% .304 80 5.70 125 0.2
Tyler Kinley 37.3 8.7 3.6 1.4 9.1% 22.0% .298 94 4.70 107 0.1
Blake Goldsberry 38.3 7.3 3.5 1.4 8.8% 18.2% .302 92 5.00 109 0.1
Dylan Spain 37.0 6.3 2.7 1.5 6.7% 16.0% .305 93 5.09 108 0.1
Victor Vodnik 46.3 8.5 5.1 1.4 12.2% 20.7% .303 90 5.13 111 0.1
Gavin Hollowell 52.0 9.2 3.6 1.4 9.3% 23.5% .303 95 4.72 106 0.1
Dugan Darnell 49.7 8.3 3.8 1.3 9.5% 20.8% .308 94 4.62 107 0.1
Nick Mears 39.3 10.1 5.5 1.4 13.4% 24.6% .304 94 4.98 106 0.1
Colten Schmidt 30.3 4.7 3.0 1.5 7.4% 11.8% .314 80 5.53 125 0.1
Thomas Ponticelli 63.3 6.1 4.1 1.4 9.9% 14.7% .304 83 5.51 120 0.1
Seth Halvorsen 16.3 5.5 2.8 1.1 7.0% 14.1% .296 96 4.54 104 0.0
Austin Kitchen 57.7 5.3 2.7 1.4 6.6% 13.3% .309 89 5.20 112 0.0
Chase Anderson 66.7 6.9 4.2 1.8 10.2% 16.8% .304 76 5.84 131 0.0
Reagan Todd 38.7 9.3 4.9 1.4 12.0% 22.9% .305 93 5.07 108 0.0
Matt Koch 59.7 7.2 3.2 1.5 7.9% 18.0% .314 85 5.08 118 0.0
Chance Adams 43.7 5.8 3.3 1.4 8.2% 14.4% .308 82 5.36 122 0.0
Mike Ruff 72.0 5.8 4.6 1.5 11.0% 13.7% .302 76 6.10 132 -0.1
Geoff Hartlieb 44.0 7.2 4.1 1.4 9.9% 17.3% .304 86 5.30 116 -0.1
Eli Lingos 49.7 5.8 4.0 1.4 9.7% 14.1% .307 84 5.45 118 -0.1
Kyle Johnston 52.0 6.6 5.2 1.4 12.2% 15.5% .305 81 5.81 124 -0.1
Stephen Jones 58.3 7.9 4.0 1.4 9.9% 19.5% .306 90 5.11 111 -0.1
Daniel Bard 44.7 9.3 5.6 1.4 13.7% 22.5% .298 87 5.45 115 -0.1
Adam McKillican 33.3 6.2 3.8 1.4 9.3% 15.2% .302 84 5.36 119 -0.1
Ben Braymer 62.0 5.1 4.9 1.6 11.6% 11.9% .308 74 6.22 135 -0.1
PJ Poulin 50.0 6.8 4.3 1.3 10.7% 16.9% .303 88 5.18 114 -0.1
Phillips Valdez 54.0 6.0 5.0 1.5 11.8% 14.2% .307 75 6.20 133 -0.2
Alec Barger 47.7 7.7 4.9 1.5 11.8% 18.6% .308 84 5.54 119 -0.2
Matt Carasiti 43.0 7.5 4.2 1.5 10.0% 18.0% .318 81 5.30 123 -0.2
Brendan Hardy 28.0 10.0 7.1 1.3 16.2% 22.8% .301 82 5.68 122 -0.2
Jacob Kostyshock 22.0 6.5 4.5 1.6 10.9% 15.8% .304 77 6.35 129 -0.2
Evan Justice 42.0 10.3 6.2 1.5 14.6% 24.2% .306 82 5.71 122 -0.3
Will Gaddis 53.3 3.7 4.2 1.5 9.9% 8.7% .314 74 6.09 135 -0.3
Michael Petersen 37.3 8.0 5.8 1.7 13.6% 18.8% .303 76 6.17 132 -0.4
Bryce McGowan 42.0 7.7 6.4 1.5 14.7% 17.6% .304 76 6.06 131 -0.4
Riley Pint 50.3 10.2 7.0 1.4 16.0% 23.4% .295 80 5.86 124 -0.4
Nick Kennedy 42.3 5.7 5.1 1.5 12.0% 13.5% .302 77 6.11 130 -0.4
Kyle Wilcox 42.0 9.0 7.3 1.5 16.3% 20.2% .302 76 5.99 131 -0.4
Nick Kuzia 47.7 6.6 5.1 1.5 12.1% 15.6% .302 79 6.05 127 -0.4
Shelby Lackey 23.3 7.7 8.5 1.5 18.5% 16.8% .294 65 7.24 154 -0.5

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3
Germán Márquez Mike Foltynewicz Jeremy Guthrie Sonny Gray
Cal Quantrill Jason Hammel Roberto Hernandez Jeremy Guthrie
Dakota Hudson Chi Chi González Steve Sparks Tom Brewer
Anthony Molina Buddy Carlyle 카라이어 Dave Borkowski Ariel Jurado
Kyle Freeland Ken Holtzman Joe Saunders Kirk Rueter
Tanner Gordon Daniel Mengden Ariel Jurado Kyle Lohse
Jeff Criswell Dave Freisleben Allen Webster 웹스터 Chuck Locke
Carson Palmquist Patrick Sandoval Mike Connolly Brad Havens
Joe Rock Ronnie Driver Kevin Morton Henry Werland
Antonio Senzatela Ivan Nova Chien-Ming Wang Mark Bomback
Gabriel Hughes Troy Bradford Edgar Ramos Leonardo Gonzalez
Austin Gomber Dennis Rasmussen John Danks Mike McCormick
Ryan Feltner Claudio Vargas Tom Griffin Patrick Johnson
Nick Bush Evan Grills Joe Rogers Anthony Boughner
Chris McMahon Jamie Brown 브라운 Jim Farr Daryl Thompson
Connor Seabold Seth Lugo Brad Lincoln Paolo Espino
Connor Van Scoyoc Jacob Turner 터너 Kyle McGowin Brad Salmon
Peter Lambert Parker Bridwell Roberto Rodriguez Scott Gardner
Justin Lawrence Curt Leskanic Ike Delock Don Robinson
Jalen Beeks Lance Painter Al Yaylian Mike Paul
Jake Bird Adam Warren Jim Johnson Vladimir Nunez
Ty Blach Greg Smith Adam Pettyjohn Don Rudolph
Mitchell Kilkenny Ismael Castillo Joe Niekro Dave Osteen
Case Williams Deolis Guerra Andrew Sopko Clayton Bittinger
Ryan Rolison Mike Skane Austin Sodders Tommy MacLane
Andrew Quezada William Hall Brian Barber Tanner Anderson
Karl Kauffmann Chris Jensen Jim Stump Merrill Kelly 켈리
Josh Rogers Ryan Rowland-Smith Michael Roth Allan Anderson
Will Ethridge Beiker Graterol Rickey Keeton Jimmy Whisman
Lucas Gilbreath Angel Miranda Dave Geisel Ryan Wing
Noah Davis Allen Webster Jake Thompson John Leister
Tyler Kinley Ryan Tepera Dave Tobik Gregg Olson
Blake Goldsberry Joe Cotton Bruce Thompson Pete Della Ratta
Dylan Spain Craig Glassco Chad Schroeder Alberto Montes
Victor Vodnik Bob Blyth Chris Lemp Trevor Hurley
Gavin Hollowell Phil Hennigan Kyle Martin Josh Martin
Dugan Darnell Gene Stechschulte Federico Castaneda Not that Edgar Martinez
Nick Mears Josh Sharpless Mark Acre Brad Lesley
Colten Schmidt Robert Warren Jeff Huber Jamie Walker
Thomas Ponticelli James Sprankle Douglas Gentry Theodore Ellis
Seth Halvorsen Dick Coffman Charles Giddens Pedro Borbon
Austin Kitchen Bryan Gore Trevor Enders David Speer
Chase Anderson Joe Niekro Joe Bowman Ken Ray 레이
Reagan Todd Josh Edgin Jaime Cerda Steve Sinclair
Matt Koch Daniel McCutchen David Shepard Tom McCarthy
Chance Adams Deryk Hooker Scott Huntsman Cody Evans
Mike Ruff Nick McCully Ralph Treuel Craig Chamberlain
Geoff Hartlieb Jim Winn Victor Marte Hank Behrman
Eli Lingos Lou Marone Ron Locke Mark Hendrickson
Kyle Johnston A.J. Morris Gary Parmenter Edgar Martinez
Stephen Jones Steve Mintz Jason Arnold Chris Bennett
Daniel Bard Don McMahon Turk Lown Jose Valverde
Adam McKillican Ray Soff Dale Hrovat Dan Brown
Ben Braymer Joe Magrane Tommy Shirley Bryan Oelkers
PJ Poulin Kevin Hickey Mariano Gomez Mike Dalton
Phillips Valdez Craig McMurtry Seth Simmons Thomas Arruda
Alec Barger Kevin Vance Derek Diaz Bo Schultz
Matt Carasiti Victor Marte Wes Gardner Darryl Scott
Brendan Hardy Steven Lovins Lon Morton Mike Barba
Jacob Kostyshock Jeff Brueggemann Eddie Moore Ron Kaufman
Evan Justice Lee Stoppelman Omar Duran Ryan Buchter
Will Gaddis Hector Ramirez Ricky Brooks Ryan Cummings
Michael Petersen Doug Bochtler Jesus Colome Derek Eitel
Bryce McGowan Amilcar Correa Jhondaniel Medina Eduardo Sierra
Riley Pint Todd Jones John Morlan Gene Pentz
Nick Kennedy Colin Young Chris Petrini Len Whitehouse
Kyle Wilcox Calvin Jones Ryan Bukvich Roger Salkeld
Nick Kuzia Frank Kamfonik Ryan Perry James Thornton
Shelby Lackey Brian Kolbe Vaughn Kovach Richard Negrette

Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles
Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Germán Márquez .270 .338 .431 .235 .287 .404 2.3 0.8 4.23 5.44
Cal Quantrill .265 .336 .451 .281 .335 .454 1.8 0.6 4.52 5.60
Dakota Hudson .272 .352 .443 .255 .319 .400 1.8 0.6 4.10 4.98
Anthony Molina .298 .352 .483 .281 .324 .449 1.7 0.6 4.60 5.68
Kyle Freeland .280 .329 .455 .288 .342 .481 1.8 0.3 4.71 5.99
Tanner Gordon .277 .329 .459 .292 .333 .488 1.7 0.5 4.59 5.63
Jeff Criswell .262 .345 .437 .267 .336 .458 1.5 0.2 4.74 5.95
Carson Palmquist .248 .336 .385 .256 .340 .450 1.5 0.2 4.42 5.78
Joe Rock .261 .338 .417 .271 .344 .451 1.4 0.4 4.64 5.71
Antonio Senzatela .286 .347 .457 .290 .335 .459 1.3 0.4 4.61 5.67
Gabriel Hughes .282 .343 .468 .256 .318 .420 1.3 0.4 4.44 5.64
Austin Gomber .250 .299 .397 .282 .338 .497 1.5 0.2 4.70 6.02
Ryan Feltner .259 .337 .440 .264 .330 .443 1.4 0.3 4.58 5.77
Nick Bush .278 .327 .467 .277 .317 .479 1.0 0.1 4.71 6.02
Chris McMahon .307 .367 .484 .269 .315 .461 1.0 0.2 4.81 5.94
Connor Seabold .272 .343 .461 .278 .325 .458 1.2 0.1 4.69 6.02
Connor Van Scoyoc .278 .366 .460 .282 .350 .475 1.0 0.1 5.18 6.07
Peter Lambert .272 .356 .478 .267 .330 .431 1.1 0.1 4.82 5.92
Justin Lawrence .246 .347 .413 .227 .317 .355 1.1 -0.2 3.81 5.50
Jalen Beeks .257 .325 .446 .272 .343 .450 1.1 -0.1 4.12 5.97
Jake Bird .264 .348 .451 .253 .322 .395 0.9 -0.2 4.18 5.53
Ty Blach .274 .320 .416 .306 .348 .516 0.8 -0.1 4.93 6.16
Mitchell Kilkenny .276 .333 .448 .307 .357 .503 0.7 0.0 5.05 6.03
Case Williams .286 .365 .500 .293 .358 .472 0.8 -0.2 5.34 6.34
Ryan Rolison .286 .354 .471 .283 .348 .482 0.6 0.0 5.11 6.34
Andrew Quezada .307 .380 .524 .284 .341 .452 0.8 -0.1 5.24 6.35
Karl Kauffmann .308 .397 .524 .268 .337 .416 0.7 -0.3 5.47 6.44
Josh Rogers .250 .297 .406 .313 .375 .550 0.6 -0.4 5.36 6.48
Will Ethridge .295 .378 .488 .273 .340 .448 0.5 -0.2 5.37 6.40
Lucas Gilbreath .240 .348 .440 .272 .371 .434 0.6 -0.2 4.74 6.17
Noah Davis .285 .392 .517 .265 .350 .407 0.6 -0.4 5.39 6.69
Tyler Kinley .232 .312 .449 .273 .337 .442 0.5 -0.3 4.19 6.23
Blake Goldsberry .257 .333 .429 .277 .344 .470 0.4 -0.2 4.52 6.10
Dylan Spain .265 .324 .485 .293 .352 .463 0.3 -0.1 4.61 5.83
Victor Vodnik .259 .370 .435 .255 .339 .439 0.4 -0.3 4.61 6.00
Gavin Hollowell .263 .358 .463 .241 .314 .398 0.5 -0.4 4.14 5.97
Dugan Darnell .253 .333 .451 .267 .339 .419 0.4 -0.3 4.40 6.05
Nick Mears .257 .373 .457 .232 .333 .402 0.4 -0.3 4.34 6.06
Colten Schmidt .275 .341 .400 .314 .368 .547 0.2 -0.1 5.32 6.80
Thomas Ponticelli .281 .362 .446 .279 .357 .493 0.4 -0.4 5.19 6.43
Seth Halvorsen .281 .343 .438 .265 .297 .412 0.2 -0.1 4.17 5.86
Austin Kitchen .250 .315 .375 .312 .363 .522 0.3 -0.3 4.80 5.93
Chase Anderson .250 .343 .435 .306 .376 .551 0.3 -0.5 5.56 7.15
Reagan Todd .260 .351 .360 .248 .353 .475 0.3 -0.3 4.29 6.06
Matt Koch .268 .346 .455 .290 .343 .481 0.4 -0.4 4.76 6.38
Chance Adams .286 .362 .476 .287 .346 .479 0.2 -0.4 5.11 6.54
Mike Ruff .282 .387 .504 .284 .374 .463 0.3 -0.5 5.73 6.95
Geoff Hartlieb .282 .358 .494 .261 .349 .424 0.2 -0.4 4.86 6.57
Eli Lingos .284 .355 .418 .287 .355 .500 0.2 -0.4 5.06 6.40
Kyle Johnston .268 .379 .423 .283 .374 .487 0.2 -0.5 5.31 6.69
Stephen Jones .269 .358 .481 .264 .342 .419 0.3 -0.5 4.65 6.05
Daniel Bard .253 .373 .462 .241 .357 .398 0.3 -0.7 4.48 7.18
Adam McKillican .290 .380 .484 .264 .333 .444 0.0 -0.3 5.08 6.46
Ben Braymer .280 .362 .463 .303 .391 .520 0.2 -0.5 5.91 7.16
PJ Poulin .254 .338 .388 .278 .362 .466 0.2 -0.5 4.68 6.10
Phillips Valdez .296 .402 .510 .276 .375 .447 0.1 -0.5 5.70 7.17
Alec Barger .286 .371 .484 .257 .356 .446 0.1 -0.5 5.09 6.42
Matt Carasiti .304 .396 .506 .260 .333 .438 0.1 -0.6 5.10 6.94
Brendan Hardy .264 .400 .472 .218 .371 .364 0.0 -0.5 5.09 6.71
Jacob Kostyshock .273 .385 .500 .289 .389 .489 -0.1 -0.4 5.57 6.87
Evan Justice .216 .355 .314 .259 .391 .491 0.1 -0.6 4.96 6.73
Will Gaddis .320 .398 .515 .303 .363 .516 -0.1 -0.6 5.90 7.13
Michael Petersen .257 .373 .429 .278 .389 .519 -0.1 -0.7 5.39 7.49
Bryce McGowan .266 .402 .456 .270 .371 .461 -0.1 -0.7 5.46 7.09
Riley Pint .239 .369 .446 .235 .397 .402 0.0 -1.0 5.10 7.09
Nick Kennedy .254 .362 .407 .298 .391 .509 -0.2 -0.7 5.59 7.04
Kyle Wilcox .266 .408 .468 .244 .365 .430 0.0 -0.9 5.16 7.66
Nick Kuzia .314 .412 .581 .245 .352 .377 -0.2 -0.9 5.38 6.90
Shelby Lackey .273 .429 .455 .250 .422 .479 -0.3 -0.7 6.49 8.79

Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023. Percentiles are based on the projected PA or TBF.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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EonADS
1 month ago

Still salty that the Guardians traded Nolan Jones instead of seeing what they had. Will Benson to a lesser extent. Neither of them got much run with the team that spent early-round draft capital on them. Yeah, they have downsides, but at least they have upside. Unlike, say Myles Straw or Will Brennan.

sadtrombonemember
1 month ago
Reply to  EonADS

I think the Guardians have a super-smart front office in every way except when it comes to the outfield. I have no idea how a team can somehow run the league’s best scouting and development operation with pitching, do a good job of finding infielders (at least partly due to their prowess in Latin America but not entirely because of it) and repeatedly face-plant in the outfield.

First, there are the guys they traded away–Nolan Jones and Will Benson. I thought they made the wrong move on trading away Jones and that losing Benson was NBD but they definitely should have hung on to both. Beyond that, there are 19 players who have suited up for the Guardians in the outfield for more than 200 PAs since 2017. Of them, the only guy who they appear to have made the right call on is Steven Kwan.
-They let Brantley go without even a QO
-They traded some good players for Myles Straw and signed him to an extension that now looks bad
-They somehow made the worst possible set of decisions when they signed Eddie Rosario and traded him
-They kept the now-DFA’d Oscar Gonzalez, who was clearly an inferior player to Jones and probably a bunch of other guys

Nobody gets this unlucky, but I have no idea how anyone could also be this wrong so many times only in the outfield. They had this weird thing for a while where they rigged together an excellent excellent right-handed platoon bat (Brandon Guyer, Jordan Luplow) with a bunch of left-handed castoffs and somehow made it work and it must have lulled them into a false sense of security.

EonADS
1 month ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

It’s not just the outfield (Catcher was the same way for everyone post-and-adjacent-Gomes until we got Bo Naylor, Gio Urshela came into his own elsewhere, and 1B has been hit-and-miss for a while), but I agree; whatever scouting magic they have has no idea what they’re doing with the OF. Part of it is definitely because they prioritized contact and strikeout rate over contact quality the last couple years, but there’s a lot more to it than that. I think more of it is also that they value defense over offense in the outfield, with the idea that they can do what they did with Ramirez, Lindor, Arias, Kipnis, and a fair number of other contact-first defensive infielders with projectible body types, who developed some power as they matured, but that doesn’t often work for the outfield. Especially for speedy glove-first guys like Straw or Brennan, who don’t actually have the body type guys like Kipnis or Ramirez have. Hell, neither is on par with Lindor or Arias in terms of general body type, and while those guys are athletic, neither screams “muscle power”.

Last edited 1 month ago by EonADS
Left of Centerfield
1 month ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I called the Straw extension a mistake at the time. They basically extended him off of a couple of good months. But his history showed that he likely wouldn’t keep it up. Sad to say I was right about that.

And they backed themselves into a corner with Gonzalez. They decided to give him a chance over Jones (and to a lesser extent Benson). He got hot and then was a playoff hero so they were basically stuck with him.

The other factor is George Valera. I think they expected him to be ready last year which made them feel they could trade Jones. Instead, Valera had a disaster of a season, forcing them to overplay Brennan (who they saw as 4th outfielder).

Going forward, they have to hope that Valera rebounds and that DeLauter keeps hitting as he moves up.

EonADS
1 month ago

All seems pretty accurate to me. Straw’s extension was small enough that you could fool yourself into thinking “if his bat regresses, he’s got enough defense and speed to make it okay”, but clearly not.

And RE: Gonzalez, I think they did the same with Brennan. He played brilliantly in the minors in ’22, then went supernova for the 11 games he played in MLB that season. They decided to bet that he could keep it up (or at least approximate it) in a less offense-friendly environment, and that wasn’t going to happen. While he underperformed his xwOBA last season, even if he’d matched the projection, he was still a 4th outfielder or an okay CF at best. I’d be okay with keeping him as a 4th OF because he can defend all 3 spots and hits better than Straw, but expecting more than that was always a fool’s errand.

Last edited 1 month ago by EonADS
isavage
1 month ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

It’s not just the outfield. This team has traded away Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero, Yainer Diaz, Nolan Jones and Will Benson. It’s possible that Kwan and Bo Naylor could end up better than at least some of those guys, but otherwise those are the 5 best position player prospects the team’s developed in the past 10 years. It would be one thing if they’d swapped those guys for some short-term injections of veteran goodness, but they were all trades for other prospects who ended up being nothing/much worse, with the potential future exception of Brito (no one is trading Nolan Jones for Brito after 2023 though obviously)

Last edited 1 month ago by isavage
Dan B
1 month ago
Reply to  EonADS

Everything you need to know about the Rockies is that the debate in their ZIPS thread is about the Guardians.