2025 ZiPS Projections: Arizona Diamondbacks

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the first team up is the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Batters

Last year in this space, ZiPS was optimistic about the Diamondbacks bettering their 2023 win total. A big part of that was the computer predicting that the offense would be somewhere around average or (mostly) better everywhere except designated hitter. That’s generally what happened, and they even improved on that projection a bit, signing Joc Pederson at the end of January. The Snakes did, in fact, improve on their won total, going from 84 to 89 wins even though that wasn’t enough to squeeze into the postseason this go-around. Arizona actually led baseball in runs scored, edging out the Dodgers, and the team wasn’t even really aided by Chase Field, which is a much more neutral offensive environment than it used to be.

There’s a lot to like about this offense going into 2025, but there are definitely a couple of things to do this offseason. Corbin Carroll, Gabriel Moreno, and Geraldo Perdomo are young enough to have significant upside remaining, and Ketel Marte, even with the associated aging risk, would have to drop a long way to be anything but a massive plus in the lineup. However, getting worse seasons from Eugenio Suárez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. should be the baseline expectation, and Christian Walker and Pederson, both also well on the wrong side of 30, are unsigned free agents. The Diamondbacks also probably can’t bank on getting the same big contributions from part-timers that they did from Josh Bell, Pavin Smith, Adrian Del Castillo, and Randal Grichuk in 2024. ZiPS does like Smith more than it did in the past — or at least, it hates him less — but it still sees first base as a weak point for the team, along with DH. Since this is the first ZiPS team, there’s a lot of time left on the clock to address those spots.

ZiPS isn’t sold on Del Castillo being Arizona’s Yainer Diaz yet, but it continues to predict a solid future for Jordan Lawlar, despite the thumb injury that cost him a good chunk of the season. It’s still more glove than bat, but between Perdomo, Lawlar, and maybe Blaze Alexander, the team has some good middle infield depth to deal from if need be. ZiPS isn’t sold on his defense, but it also sees Gino Groover having enough of a bat to be at least a credible role player in the very near future. ZiPS doesn’t see much upside in the farm system beyond that, but the big club has a very good offense right now and isn’t desperate for quick reinforcements.

Pitchers

The Diamondbacks got significant improvements from their offense in 2024, but they didn’t see the same strides from the pitching staff. It’s not that there weren’t reasons for optimism; Arizona addressed a rather thin rotation by signing Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery, giving the team what appeared to be a stable front five. But E-Rod’s 2024 didn’t start until August thanks to a shoulder injury in the spring, and Montgomery, who signed in late March when his market didn’t develop, had the worst season of his professional career. Merrill Kelly also missed significant time with a shoulder injury. There weren’t any pleasant surprises sufficient to balance these disappointments out, and among the starting pitchers, only Ryne Nelson showed any discernible improvement from 2023. The only silver lining is that the rotation, which finished with a 4.79 ERA, looked better in terms of FIP (4.01) and SIERA (4.16). The bullpen wasn’t any sunnier.

There’s still hope, however. The defense was solid last year, and looks to be roughly the same this year, so there’s no structural reason why the pitching staff can’t come closer to its peripheral numbers in 2025. While none of the individual projections are in elite territory, and while injuries have pushed down those projected innings, ZiPS does see the rotation as being closer to that FIP than the ERA on the whole. To no one’s surprise, Zac Gallen has the best projection of the any of the starters, but ZiPS thinks the dip in his walk rate is real, and in fact, that he might be due for something a little steeper given the fairly large decline in his first-strike percentage. The month Gallen missed due to a sore hamstring shaves some innings off his projection, enough to dip him below 3 WAR.

Moving on from there, the computer is starting to sour on Brandon Pfaadt’s ability to match his FIP; his 277 innings isn’t that large a sample, but the run gap between his ERA and his FIP is a pretty wide gulf, especially when there’s an above-average defense in the mix. On the other hand, Rodriguez, Kelly, and especially Montgomery, all get improved projections from their 2024 lines, so while the Phillies won’t be scared, there’s an argument to be made that the 2025 rotation isn’t as much of a concern as their 2024 numbers indicated.

In the bullpen, ZiPS is possibly even more optimistic. The front five in the ‘pen all project to have ERAs under 3.50, and of the front 13 relievers — which ought to cover the bulk of the relief innings — ZiPS only has serious concerns about Bryce Jarvis and Brandon Hughes.

ZiPS continues to be the world’s biggest Cristian Mena backer, and sees enough interesting-ish starting pitchers in the minors to provide a good amount of depth. Yilber Diaz moved up in the prospect rankings this season, an improvement ZiPS concurs with, seeing him as the best of the team’s pitching prospects after Mena.

All in all, short of dramatic changes, Arizona’s final projected win total is likely to be in the high 80s or low 90s, similar to last season. That the Diamondbacks didn’t make it into October this year was due more to some poor luck in the distribution of the win totals of the rest of the National League than the team falling flat after a trip to the World Series.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2025 due to injury, and players who were released in 2024. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that only covers songs by The Smiths, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.