2025 ZiPS Projections: Cincinnati Reds

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Cincinnati Reds.

Batters

In return for their mini-free agent spree after nearly making the playoffs in 2023, the Cincinnati Reds dropped five wins, finishing 2024 with a 77-85 record. It wasn’t as bad as it looked — the team improved its Pythagorean record by five wins compared to the year before — but it felt lousy that only Nick Martinez really shined among their signings. Elly De La Cruz did break out in a massive way — he was a legitimate MVP contender for much of the season — but Matt McLain’s torn labrum and rib injury kept him away from the action.

A look at the depth chart graphic makes it pretty clear where the Reds are strong: Even with some regression toward the mean, De La Cruz is the team’s most important player, and if healthy, McLain will upgrade second base. Continuing the up-the-middle strength is Jose Trevino, recently acquired from the Yankees; he and Tyler Stephenson give the Reds an excellent tandem behind the plate. TJ Friedl in center gets a less exciting projection, but he’s still perfectly serviceable as a starter, and he’s the worst projected player of the up-the-middle quartet.

But while the rest of the lineup isn’t disastrous, it is a giant bucket of “meh.” The Reds have apparently resolved their third base logjam in the worst possible way: all the contenders basically were either disappointing or injured. The bats at first base, designated hitter, and in right field are in the bottom third of the ZiPS projections. And even with a bounce-back projected for Spencer Steer after his 96 wRC+ in 2024, left field isn’t a shining beacon of hope either.

The other problem is that when you look at the minors, there aren’t obvious players to change things up down there. Most of the better projected players are minor league journeymen types forecast for 1 WAR, and several are minor league free agents anyway. Edwin Arroyo has the most interesting long-term projection, but he’s coming off shoulder surgery and isn’t a beefy corner outfield/first base type.

Pitchers

Hunter Greene finally put it together for a full season in 2024, a relief both to Reds fans and to me since I keep putting him on my breakout list every year. Now I can stop! I wouldn’t say that Greene is definitely in the tier of pitchers where you find guys like Zack Wheeler, but he’s probably in the next group down, starters who can theoretically put up a Cy Young-worthy season in a good year. Where the Reds once had to worry about Greene, they can probably ponder other problems now.

Martinez is a wonderfully versatile pitcher, and though not a star, the Reds can plug him in most places pretty happily, even without him being a big strikeout guy. The rest of the rotation reads as more serviceable/competent than a big part of the team. Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo are quietly average, and definitely useful, but there’s no big ceiling like with Greene or Rhett Lowder. ZiPS still thinks Graham Ashcraft has some upside remaining, though the computer’s come down a little compared to the last couple of seasons. And I tend to like the acquisition of Brady Singer better than ZiPS does — it worries about him maintaining his excellent HR/9 rate in Cincy.

ZiPS isn’t a fan of the bullpen at all, though it’s not as bad as the graphic suggests. Luis Mey, who has a good number of innings on the depth chart, has the worst pitching projection of anybody in the organization. ZiPS doesn’t like his command one bit, though I imagine the team won’t keep him in the big league ‘pen if this projection turns out to be accurate.

Outside of Alexis Díaz, Martinez when used in relief, and Ashcraft if he finds his way there, ZiPS finds the Reds relievers to be a lackluster mix of arms. The big exception might be Tony Santillan, who pitched very well for the big club but walked five batters per game in the minors. Still, if he continues to pitch like he did in August and September, his projection will turn around fairly quickly.

The Reds look a lot like a .500 team in 2025, but they don’t appear to be a doomed, hopeless one, which is something.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2025 due to injury, and players who were released in 2024. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that only covers songs by The Smiths, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.