2025 ZiPS Projections: New York Yankees

For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the New York Yankees.

Batters

The Yankees’ big problem on offense is an obvious one: Juan Soto is no longer in the lineup. Their position players are projected for 23.3 WAR, about 10 fewer wins from their 2024 total. Much of that is due to Soto’s absence, but ZiPS is also projecting Aaron Judge’s production to dip by three or four wins. That’s not a knock on Judge; remember, he put up 11.2 WAR last season, and no projection system worth anything would expect him not to regress in 2025.

Judge’s projection is still a dynamite one, but unfortunately for the Yankees, he stands alone in stardom in the lineup. There are a lot of good projections here. The Austin Wells/Jose Trevino catching tandem and shortstop Anthony Volpe are projected to eclipse 3.0 WAR. ZiPS expects Jazz Chisholm Jr. to be their second-best position player, and outfielders Jasson Domínguez and Trent Grisham to have solid campaigns. The problem is this group isn’t that exciting. Except for Judge, of course. The Yankees had the no. 2 offense in baseball (117 wRC+) in 2024, but unless they make some significant upgrades between now and Opening Day, expect them to take a step back at the plate.

ZiPS sees DH and first base as the two biggest problems in this lineup. The projections are tremendously unexcited about a Ben Rice/DJ LeMahieu timeshare at first. Giancarlo Stanton had a terrific postseason – and ZiPS factors in that production – but he was still only a .233/.298/.475 hitter in the regular season. Moreover, considering he turned 35 last month, he’s more likely to decline than improve moving forward. Barring injury, Stanton is going to be the Yankees’ regular DH in 2025, but the team could (read: should) add a first baseman over the next few months.

On the plus side, ZiPS thinks New York’s patchwork of second base options should adequately replace free agent Gleyber Torres if he signs elswhere.

The last concern ZiPS has is the organization’s minor league depth, especially on offense. The projections for Spencer Jones are much worse than the scouting consensus.

Pitchers

The Yankees overpaid this week when they agreed to sign Max Fried to the largest contract ever for a lefty pitcher, but that doesn’t mean it was a bad deal. On the contrary, because there is a lot of injury risk in this rotation, it was crucial for the Yankees to add a top-of-the-rotation starter, and ZiPS projects Fried to be their best pitcher this season by WAR. Some of Gerrit Cole’s projected dip is due to his missing a chunk of time in 2024 with an elbow injury, but that’s far from the only source of concern here. Now 34, Cole is allowing more contact these days, a trend that started in his 2023 Cy Young season, not this past year. ZiPS also projects Luis Gil to regress toward the mean, and it sees Carlos Rodón as an injury risk. Don’t get me wrong, the Yankees have a good starting rotation, especially if their pitchers stay healthy, but this group is a step or two below the top-shelf units of the Phillies and Dodgers.

ZiPS is more optimistic than Steamer is about New York’s bullpen. You won’t actually find relievers with projected ERAs above four until you get very deep in the pen, where you’ll see names like JT Brubaker and Yerry De Los Santos. While an extra relief arm or two would be welcome, I don’t think boosting the bullpen ought to be the team’s biggest priority.

All told, the Yankees are projected to finish with a win total in the high-80s or low-90s. That’s not ideal, of course, but that’s about where the Orioles sit right now as well, and nobody else in the division has a better projection. It’ll be interesting to see what the Yankees do the next few months.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2025 due to injury, and players who were released in 2024. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that only covers songs by The Smiths, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.