2026 ZiPS Projections: Cincinnati Reds

For the 22nd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Cincinnati Reds.

Batters

Much like during the 2020 COVID season, the 2025 Reds finished just above .500, barely squeaked into the playoffs, and got bounced from the Wild Card round in two games. At least this time around, they actually scored runs! But the lineup was a recurring problem in the regular season, the biggest reason Cincy needed a late-summer collapse by the Mets in order to play October baseball. The lineup’s 13.2 WAR ranked 26th in baseball, with Elly De La Cruz and TJ Friedl combining for more than half of that total. Finishing 21st in home runs isn’t good for a team that plays in one of the best home run parks in the majors today.

Surprisingly exactly nobody, EDLC gets an extremely solid 2026 ZiPS projection. This season wasn’t quite on the level of his 2024 breakout, but slipping from MVP candidate to superstar isn’t exactly a Wile E. Coyote-esque ravine fall. He’s never going to be an ultra-scientific hitter, and a mediocre contact rate prevents him from hitting for impressive batting averages, but a shortstop who’s capable of a 30/30 season and can more than handle the position defensively is going to hard-pressed not to be a star.

It is worth noting that De La Cruz played through nagging quad and hamstring problems, which no doubt hampered his production. The exact effect is hard to determine, but his performance took a big hit in the second half. Those injuries may not have been severe enough to merit an IL stint, but given his size and the fact that he’s got a lot of aging to come, I think De La Cruz’s speed and defense might go quickly if he ever suffers a more serious leg injury. If that were to happen, he might end up with Alfonso Soriano’s career path and become a more traditional slugging outfielder, though he’s better defensively at short than Soriano ever was. But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves; that’s not really a concern right now.

Matt McLain’s offense did not seem to survive the 2024 shoulder injury that cost him the season, but like Steamer, ZiPS is projecting something of an offensive bounce-back in 2026, albeit one far less exciting than his .290/.357/.507 rookie year in 2023. Fortunately, his defense at second base did return, making 2025 far from a total loss in spite of his disappointing offensive results.

ZiPS sees Friedl as a legitimate starter in center for a couple more years, and thinks Sal Stewart is a decent role player who would be most valuable at third base. We can probably put to bed the idea of Ke’Bryan Hayes breaking out at the plate, but he’s an eternal Gold Glove favorite, so he can get away with unexciting offense.

The problem is that the Reds are unexciting offensively basically everywhere else. The ship appears to have sailed on Tyler Stephenson joining the star tier of catchers, and ZiPS isn’t very excited about Noelvi Marte in the outfield given his erratic career. Spencer Steer is a below-average offensive talent at first base and Gavin Lux is mostly interesting as a full-time starter if you can believe he can hack an infield spot. A team that desperately needs an impact bat and a DH — and that could contend with a better offense — is one that really should be in on Kyle Schwarber. Plus, he’s from the area! But I’m not banking on it.

Pitchers

The Reds’ pitching projections will be especially interesting to look back on in a year because there is a lot of disagreement here between ZiPS and Steamer. By and large, ZiPS likes the top of Cincinnati’s rotation quite a bit more than Steamer does, starting with Andrew Abbott. Mr. Szymborski’s Monster gives Abbott a full three-quarters of a run edge in ERA compared to Steamer; ZiPS also likes Hunter Greene a good bit better. Overall, this set of projections sees a rotation of Greene, Abbott, Brady Singer, Nick Lodolo, and Chase Burns as the starting five of a 90-win contender. Rhett Lowder certainly has upside as well, but ZiPS sees the depth falling off quite a bit after that. Given the team’s needs, a couple of pillow deals or dice roll starter signings might help, though considering the self-imposed financial constraints the front office typically operates under, offensive additions would be far more impactful.

ZiPS shares Steamer’s suspicions about Zack Littell. Littell has never been a big strikeout pitcher, and a roughly 25% dip in strikeout rate from season to season is a basement carbon monoxide detector alarm-level cause for immediate concern. But that’s a problem for his next team since, like Nick Martinez — who ZiPS likes a great deal more — he’s a free agent.

ZiPS might be higher on the rotation than Steamer, but the fringy high-minors starters who aren’t top prospects strike a much more sour note. And after Graham Ashcraft and Tony Santillan, ZiPS doesn’t see a single member of the current bullpen with an ERA better than 4.50, and most project at or below replacement level. Emilio Pagán, a pitcher ZiPS has long been skeptical of, had a legitimately solid 2025, such that it’s giving him basically his best projection ever… just in time for him to hit free agency after two seasons in Cincy. I don’t usually advocate for a miserly team to spend their limited free agent budget on relievers, but I really do think that this ‘pen is weak enough and the team competitive enough that some investment here would be highly useful.

As they are constructed right now, ZiPS sees the Reds about where they were in 2025: floating around .500. To control their own playoff fate, they’ll need ownership to invest more in the team. I’m not optimistic about that.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2026 due to injury, and players who were released in 2025. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Ambient Math-Rock Trip-Hop Yacht Metal band that only performs in abandoned malls, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky. This last is, however, not an actual requirement.