2026 ZiPS Projections: San Diego Padres

For the 22nd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the San Diego Padres.

Batters

The season ended in disappointing fashion, as the Padres lost the NL Wild Card Series in three games against the Cubs. But overall, 2025 has to be considered a success for San Diego. For the first time in franchise history, the Padres passed the 90-win mark in consecutive seasons, and they did so against the backdrop of their owner’s death and their TV provider going bankrupt. They also lost Joe Musgrove for the year, and possibly Yu Darvish permanently. The Friars patched just enough pitching and hitting together to threaten the Dodgers’ supremacy in the division, and now they’ll try to do it again, without Dylan Cease and with a nearly maxed out payroll.

The good news is San Diego seems to have mitigated two of the problems on offense that ZiPS saw coming into last year. Ramón Laureano, whose career looked to be on life support a year ago, has largely returned to form, and though ZiPS is not projecting another .855 OPS from him, it does think he’s a legitimate, non-problematic starter in left field. ZiPS was quite down on catcher Elias Díaz, and while midseason acquisition Freddy Fermin didn’t hit all that well last year, he has a better offensive track record, and he’s still not far past 30. ZiPS still doesn’t like the team’s situation at first base, where Jake Cronenworth is set to play now that Luis Arraez is a free agent.

Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. remain terrific, and while Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts are likely on the downslope of their careers, that’s more of a long-term worry than a problem for this year. I’d feel better about the Padres if they had a better starter at either first or designated hitter, but this is a solidly above-average lineup.

Pitchers

What San Diego gets from the rotation might truly determine the team’s ceiling and floor. ZiPS isn’t pegging Nick Pivetta to repeat his 2025, but he’s solid, and fairly durable, and that’s quite valuable. Bringing back Michael King was necessary, as this rotation just isn’t good enough to absorb the loss of both King and Cease, even if King chooses to opt out after the 2026 season. But the questions begin after the two of them. I’ve always liked Musgrove, and ZiPS thinks he’ll be fine, but there’s a great deal of risk for any pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery, especially immediately.

After Musgrove, the questions grow darker still. Randy Vásquez had a 3.84 ERA in 2025, with peripherals that didn’t remotely support that performance, and let’s just say that baseball has a long history of pitchers who are declared to have invalidated FIP theory, right before it becomes clear that no such thing happened. JP Sears is pure innings-eater, and while he remains the last Sears location open for business, that’s not saying much at this point. ZiPS likes Kyle Hart more as a reliever than a starter, and cordially hates all the other starting options currently in the organization, with the possible exception of any surprise reliever–>starter conversions.

ZiPS isn’t as excited as Steamer is about the bullpen, but it does see it as a solid B/B+ squad. Mason Miller is, of course, absolutely stunning, and ZiPS likes the Adrian Morejon/Jeremiah Estrada/Jason Adam part of the supporting cast. But it’s lukewarm on guys like Wandy Peralta and David Morgan, and doesn’t really care for the back of the pen. There’s only one “no name special” here, in that ZiPS is highly interested in Garrett Hawkins, with a 3.70 ERA projected as a reliever, and would very much like to see him in the big league bullpen soon. Well, if ZiPS actually had human feelings, of course.

The Padres look a lot like the 2025 team, with a win projection in the high 80s and 90 being well within the probable range. But it’s a fragile 90 wins. A few nasty surprises in the rotation could unravel things very quickly, as the team doesn’t have a deep farm system at the moment to acquire good starting pitching.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2026 due to injury, and players who were released in 2025. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Ambient Math-Rock Trip-Hop Yacht Metal band that only performs in abandoned malls, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on Bluesky. This last is, however, not an actual requirement.