2027 ZiPS Projections: Pittsburgh Pirates

For the 23rd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Batters

When it came to projecting the Pittsburgh Pirates’ 2026 season, ZiPS was grumpier than most other public systems and the FanGraphs staff, forecasting the team for just a 79-83 record in the final preseason standings. The Pirates beat that mark by three wins, finishing at 82-80, for the team’s first winning record since 2018. Unfortunately, that wasn’t enough, as the Pirates finished six back (realistically seven because of tiebreakers) of the Philadelphia Phillies, who grabbed the National League’s final Wild Card spot. However, despite not having snuck into October the way that many thought they would, ZiPS likes the Pirates significantly more this time around.

Some of that comes down to the offense, much of which is a lot less risky than it was entering last season. Konnor Griffin wasn’t an immediate superstar — he missed time with a right forearm injury and a torn sagittal band in his left hand (a body part I had never even heard of until the shortstop’s injury), and was merely pretty good when available — but he’s certainly more established than he was a year ago, and the crazy upside remains. Oneil Cruz also missed time with injury (a broken hand), but the 132 wRC+ he put up in 97 games was a seasonal best, and a big jump from the troubling 85 he posted in 2025.

Going through the rest of the lineup, there really isn’t much to hate, though there isn’t much to absolutely love, either. ZiPS still sees age as a big downside risk for Bryan Reynolds and isn’t (yet) buying Esmerlyn Valdez as a 130 wRC+ guy. I think re-signing Brandon Lowe would be a pretty big deal for this team, as he still gets the best WAR projection of anyone on the offense. As with the Brewers, ZiPS believes that Pittsburgh has good depth in the upper minors, though the Pirates lack bonafide future stars on the level of Jesús Made. The projections suggest that the team would be best-served by letting Murf Gray seize the third base job as soon as possible. Plus, Murf Gray sounds like the name of an 1880s superstar who tried to run over Arlie Latham in a Flocken Elektrowagen.

Given their good second- and third-tier talent, if the Pirates are willing to spend some money this offseason — not always a given — I hope they concentrate it in one or two good players rather than spreading it around to veteran memberberries as they have in recent years. I’m just not sure what signing Andrew McCutchen (sorry), Carlos Santana, Marcell Ozuna, or Tommy Pham could have realistically accomplished. If you want to crib from the Brewers, sign a reclamation projection or an interesting 28-year-old, and try to catch lightning in a bottle rather than buying a bottle that’s already free of electricity.

Pitchers

ZiPS sees the Pirates with a middle-tier offense, but it really likes the pitching staff. I can’t exactly claim that the system is going out on a projection limb, however; our Depth Charts, which are currently Steamer-based, have the Pirates as the game’s no. 3 pitching staff by WAR, behind just the Phillies and Dodgers. Paul Skenes will very likely have a better 2027, and you know you’re a good pitcher when people are down on a 4.2-WAR season. Braxton Ashcraft is a perfect no. 2 starter, and ZiPS puts Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler both safely over the 100 ERA+ line. Even Mitch Keller’s 4.50 projected ERA is a good bit better than his disappointing 2026, and certainly better than par for the fifth-best starter in your rotation.

The bullpen isn’t full of name-brand relievers, but ZiPS still pegs the group as easily among the top 10 in baseball. Mason Montgomery is terrific, and Luke Weaver should be better than he was in his brief Pirates stint this summer. ZiPS thinks Carmen Mlodzinski is just as good as Weaver when used as a reliever, and when deployed exclusively in relief, ZiPS sees the whole ‘pen with ERAs in the 3.00s until you get to Antwone Kelly and Evan Sisk, and even they just barely land on the wrong side of 4.00. Seth Hernandez probably isn’t ready just yet, but ZiPS sees Hunter Barco, Connor Wietgrefe, and Khristian Curtis as reasonable back-end fill-ins, and possibly more if they hit their upside.

It’s still early, but as they’re constructed right now, ZiPS sees the Pirates as being in a strong position to make a Wild Card run, even though they’re a tier down from the Brewers and Cubs in the NL Central.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2027 due to injury, and players who were released in 2026. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a
Post-Industrial-Gregorian-Chant-Bubblegum-Reggaeton band that only performs at rural zoning board meetings, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.18.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky. This last is, however, not an actual requirement.