After an offseason marked by some funky free agent contract structures, a few big trades, and a bunch more handwringing over the Los Angeles Dodgers, the 2026 season is upon us; we made it. And on this, the morning of Opening Day (sorry, Netflix), we engage in our annual tradition of asking our staff to open themselves up to public ridicule by trying to predict the year ahead in baseball. Some of these predictions will prove to be prescient; others will make their forecaster feel a little silly. Such is the prognostication business.
I asked our staff to predict the playoff field, as well as the pennant and World Series winners, and the individual award recipients. Twenty-five of our writers from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs weighed in. Here are the results. Please note that the tables at the end showing the full writer ballots are sortable.
American League
American League West
Team
Division
Wild Card 1
Wild Card 2
Wild Card 3
Playoffs
Seattle Mariners
23
1
1
0
25
Texas Rangers
1
0
0
2
3
Athletics
1
0
0
0
1
Houston Astros
0
0
1
2
3
Los Angeles Angels
0
0
0
0
0
American League Central
Team
Division
Wild Card 1
Wild Card 2
Wild Card 3
Playoffs
Detroit Tigers
18
1
5
0
24
Kansas City Royals
6
1
2
6
15
Cleveland Guardians
1
0
1
0
2
Chicago White Sox
0
0
0
0
0
Minnesota Twins
0
0
0
0
0
American League East
Team
Division
Wild Card 1
Wild Card 2
Wild Card 3
Playoffs
Toronto Blue Jays
9
7
5
0
21
Boston Red Sox
9
4
4
4
21
New York Yankees
6
7
5
4
22
Baltimore Orioles
1
4
1
5
11
Tampa Bay Rays
0
0
0
2
2
American League No. 1 Seed
Team
Votes
Seattle Mariners
10
Detroit Tigers
5
Toronto Blue Jays
4
Boston Red Sox
4
Baltimore Orioles
1
New York Yankees
1
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19 Comments
Oldest
NewestMost Voted
Athletics Fan Surrounded by GuardiansMember since 2025
6 months ago
I see Eric Longenhagen picking the A’s to win the West… and I’m torn between “Eric has lost his mind” and “Eric knows a LOT more about baseball than me, maybe I should place a wager.” 🙂
For some reason I still remember when he picked Gabriel Moreno to win MVP in 2024 so don’t feel bad!
doughboyMember since 2024
6 months ago
After reading Vlad Sedler last article saying no one on the Tigers worth targeting in fantasy and now being only person excluding them from making postseason, i gotta ask – why do you hate my favourite team??
i am just kidding – just funny noticed this on back to back days.
Happy Opening Day to all!
sadtromboneMember since 2020
6 months ago
Eric Longenhagen and Jason Martinez live to bust up groupthink.
Longenhagen
AL West: Athletics
AL Pennant: Tigers
NL Pennant: D-Backs
Martinez
AL West: Rangers
NL Central: Pirates
AL MVP: Wyatt Langford
On one hand I get it. It’s kinds boring to pick overwhelming favorites like Dodgers, Mariners, Tigers, Ohtani, Skenes, and Judge. And there’s no penalty for being wrong.
On the other hand, I wonder if there was some risk or reward other than bragging rights, say each writer put $20 with winner take all, if they would really make those predictions. Like do “you” really think the Padres will win the West or at you just trying to look smart if somehow the Dodgers collapse.
sadtromboneMember since 2020
6 months ago
Also if you wanted to bet on someone winning NL Cy Young that is a real dark horse, Michael Rosen’s pick of Nolan McLean is a pretty good one. What happens when you stick a guy with a 55% ground ball rate in front of Francisco Lindor and Marcus Semien? I think there’s a small but not farfetched chance he has a lower ERA than Skenes did in 2025 (1.97).
Jasper FranciscoMember since 2017
6 months ago
It’s uncommon for a player who’s never appeared on an MVP ballot to win the award, so MVP Langford feels pretty spicy.
johndarc
6 months ago
More people expect the Yankees to make the playoffs than the other competitors in the division, but fewer expect them to win the division
So does that just mean the Yankees have an extremely high floor?
Probably. But they also have a really high ceiling. Therefore, alternative theory: most baseball fans dislike the Yankees, but the subset that are baseball writers don’t want to look like haters. So they end up grudgingly admitting the team will be good, but they won’t concede that they’re elite.
The nature of the predictions leads to some interesting results like this. The top 4 teams in the AL East are pretty close by ZIPS and FG projected standings. But I think people are hesitant to pick all 4 to make the playoffs and it’s pretty likely one of them winds up .500 and misses. I suspect if we asked people to predicts records WC2, WC3, and “WC4” would be separated by a couple games in most standings but WC4 and worst record show up the same in the tables.
David Klein
6 months ago
I predicted the Mets would beat the Red Sox in the World Series last year and looked quite foolish as the Mets missed the playoffs. That won’t stop me from predicting the Mets will win it all this year as I have a World Series we could have had twenty years ago if not for Yadier Bleeping Molina and Adam bleeping Wainwright. I’ll go Mets over Tigers in six.
misterjohnnyMember since 2016
6 months ago
Nobody remembers that you were just one of 25 picking the Dodgers to win the West. But if you pick someone else and you are right, bragging rights for a year. Someone wants to stand out from the crowd, and hoping we won’t notice what he’s trying to do.
I see Eric Longenhagen picking the A’s to win the West… and I’m torn between “Eric has lost his mind” and “Eric knows a LOT more about baseball than me, maybe I should place a wager.” 🙂
Picked the backs to win the NL pennant too.
Yeah, but that’s just utterly crazy!
Can’t both be true?
For some reason I still remember when he picked Gabriel Moreno to win MVP in 2024 so don’t feel bad!
After reading Vlad Sedler last article saying no one on the Tigers worth targeting in fantasy and now being only person excluding them from making postseason, i gotta ask – why do you hate my favourite team??
i am just kidding – just funny noticed this on back to back days.
Happy Opening Day to all!
Eric Longenhagen and Jason Martinez live to bust up groupthink.
Longenhagen
AL West: Athletics
AL Pennant: Tigers
NL Pennant: D-Backs
Martinez
AL West: Rangers
NL Central: Pirates
AL MVP: Wyatt Langford
I love it.
David Laurila, especially in the NL, went on his own path a lot, too.
Martinez also the only one not to pick the Dodgers in the NL West.
On one hand I get it. It’s kinds boring to pick overwhelming favorites like Dodgers, Mariners, Tigers, Ohtani, Skenes, and Judge. And there’s no penalty for being wrong.
On the other hand, I wonder if there was some risk or reward other than bragging rights, say each writer put $20 with winner take all, if they would really make those predictions. Like do “you” really think the Padres will win the West or at you just trying to look smart if somehow the Dodgers collapse.
Also if you wanted to bet on someone winning NL Cy Young that is a real dark horse, Michael Rosen’s pick of Nolan McLean is a pretty good one. What happens when you stick a guy with a 55% ground ball rate in front of Francisco Lindor and Marcus Semien? I think there’s a small but not farfetched chance he has a lower ERA than Skenes did in 2025 (1.97).
It’s uncommon for a player who’s never appeared on an MVP ballot to win the award, so MVP Langford feels pretty spicy.
More people expect the Yankees to make the playoffs than the other competitors in the division, but fewer expect them to win the division
So does that just mean the Yankees have an extremely high floor?
Probably. But they also have a really high ceiling. Therefore, alternative theory: most baseball fans dislike the Yankees, but the subset that are baseball writers don’t want to look like haters. So they end up grudgingly admitting the team will be good, but they won’t concede that they’re elite.
The nature of the predictions leads to some interesting results like this. The top 4 teams in the AL East are pretty close by ZIPS and FG projected standings. But I think people are hesitant to pick all 4 to make the playoffs and it’s pretty likely one of them winds up .500 and misses. I suspect if we asked people to predicts records WC2, WC3, and “WC4” would be separated by a couple games in most standings but WC4 and worst record show up the same in the tables.
I predicted the Mets would beat the Red Sox in the World Series last year and looked quite foolish as the Mets missed the playoffs. That won’t stop me from predicting the Mets will win it all this year as I have a World Series we could have had twenty years ago if not for Yadier Bleeping Molina and Adam bleeping Wainwright. I’ll go Mets over Tigers in six.
Nobody remembers that you were just one of 25 picking the Dodgers to win the West. But if you pick someone else and you are right, bragging rights for a year. Someone wants to stand out from the crowd, and hoping we won’t notice what he’s trying to do.
I imagine that’s the thinking, but should getting only 3 division winners right when most people get 4 or 5 really get you bragging rights.
It’s like the pundits on TV who are wrong all the time. When they miss “oh, it was a long shot”; when they hit, they claim to be brilliant.
@jasonmartinez really thinks that Padres are the cream of the NL West crop? That prediction belongs in the BOLD predictions article!