The FanGraphs 2026 Staff Predictions

After an offseason marked by some funky free agent contract structures, a few big trades, and a bunch more handwringing over the Los Angeles Dodgers, the 2026 season is upon us; we made it. And on this, the morning of Opening Day (sorry, Netflix), we engage in our annual tradition of asking our staff to open themselves up to public ridicule by trying to predict the year ahead in baseball. Some of these predictions will prove to be prescient; others will make their forecaster feel a little silly. Such is the prognostication business.
I asked our staff to predict the playoff field, as well as the pennant and World Series winners, and the individual award recipients. Twenty-five of our writers from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs weighed in. Here are the results. Please note that the tables at the end showing the full writer ballots are sortable.
American League
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| Texas Rangers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Athletics | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Houston Astros | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 18 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 24 |
| Kansas City Royals | 6 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Chicago White Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minnesota Twins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 9 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 21 |
| Boston Red Sox | 9 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21 |
| New York Yankees | 6 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 22 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 10 |
| Detroit Tigers | 5 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 4 |
| Boston Red Sox | 4 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1 |
| New York Yankees | 1 |
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 8 |
| New York Yankees | 5 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 4 |
| Boston Red Sox | 4 |
| Detroit Tigers | 4 |
National League
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| San Diego Padres | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| San Francisco Giants | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 14 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 22 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 9 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 20 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| St Louis Cardinals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 17 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 8 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 23 |
| Atlanta Braves | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9 |
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 23 |
| New York Mets | 1 |
| Chicago Cubs | 1 |
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| New York Mets | 12 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 5 |
| Chicago Cubs | 4 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 2 |
| San Diego Padres | 1 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
Pennant and World Series Winners
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 10 |
| Detroit Tigers | 5 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 4 |
| Boston Red Sox | 4 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 1 |
| New York Yankees | 1 |
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 15 |
| New York Mets | 5 |
| Chicago Cubs | 2 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 2 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 |
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 6 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 3 |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 3 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. New York Mets | 2 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Mets | 1 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago Cubs | 1 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 1 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
| Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets | 1 |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs | 1 |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
| Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets | 1 |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 1 |
| New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 9 |
| Seattle Mariners | 6 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 3 |
| New York Mets | 3 |
| Detroit Tigers | 2 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 1 |
| Boston Red Sox | 1 |
Individual Awards
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 11 |
| Aaron Judge | 6 |
| Wyatt Langford | 2 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1 |
| Junior Caminero | 1 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 1 |
| José Ramírez | 1 |
| Julio Rodríguez | 1 |
| Tarik Skubal | 1 |
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Garrett Crochet | 10 |
| Tarik Skubal | 8 |
| Cole Ragans | 3 |
| Dylan Cease | 1 |
| Jacob deGrom | 1 |
| George Kirby | 1 |
| Bryan Woo | 1 |
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Kevin McGonigle | 12 |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 5 |
| Samuel Basallo | 2 |
| Carter Jensen | 2 |
| Colt Emerson | 1 |
| Tatsuya Imai | 1 |
| Munetaka Murakami | 1 |
| Payton Tolle | 1 |
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 18 |
| Juan Soto | 4 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 2 |
| Ketel Marte | 1 |
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | 13 |
| Cristopher Sánchez | 4 |
| Logan Webb | 2 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 2 |
| Andrew Abbott | 1 |
| Jesús Luzardo | 1 |
| Nolan McLean | 1 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 1 |
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Nolan McLean | 13 |
| Konnor Griffin | 4 |
| JJ Wetherholt | 4 |
| Sal Stewart | 2 |
| Carson Benge | 1 |
| Bubba Chandler | 1 |
Staff Predictions – Full Ballots
| Writer | West | Central | East | WC1 | WC2 | WC3 | 1 Seed | 2 Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Cohen | SEA | DET | NYY | BOS | TOR | BAL | SEA | NYY |
| Ben Clemens | SEA | KCR | TOR | NYY | DET | TBR | TOR | SEA |
| Brendan Gawlowski | SEA | DET | NYY | TOR | BOS | KCR | NYY | SEA |
| Chad Young | SEA | DET | TOR | KCR | BOS | NYY | SEA | DET |
| Dan Szymborski | SEA | DET | BOS | TOR | HOU | BAL | BOS | SEA |
| David Laurila | SEA | DET | BOS | TOR | CLE | NYY | SEA | DET |
| Davy Andrews | SEA | DET | BOS | TOR | NYY | BAL | BOS | DET |
| Eric Longenhagen | ATH | DET | TOR | BAL | SEA | BOS | DET | TOR |
| Jake Mailhot | SEA | DET | TOR | BOS | NYY | BAL | TOR | SEA |
| James Fegan | SEA | DET | NYY | BOS | TOR | KCR | SEA | NYY |
| Jason Martinez | TEX | DET | NYY | SEA | BOS | KCR | DET | NYY |
| Jay Jaffe | SEA | KCR | TOR | NYY | DET | BOS | TOR | SEA |
| Jeff Zimmerman | SEA | CLE | TOR | DET | NYY | TEX | TOR | SEA |
| Joe Orrico | SEA | KCR | TOR | NYY | DET | TEX | SEA | TOR |
| Jon Becker | SEA | DET | BOS | BAL | TOR | NYY | DET | BOS |
| Jordan Rosenblum | SEA | DET | NYY | BAL | TOR | BOS | SEA | NYY |
| Justin Mason | SEA | DET | TOR | NYY | KCR | BOS | DET | TOR |
| Kiri Oler | SEA | KCR | BOS | NYY | DET | BAL | SEA | BOS |
| Matt Martell | SEA | DET | NYY | TOR | BOS | KCR | SEA | NYY |
| Meg Rowley | SEA | DET | BOS | TOR | NYY | KCR | BOS | SEA |
| Michael Baumann | SEA | DET | TOR | BOS | KCR | NYY | DET | TOR |
| Michael Rosen | SEA | DET | BAL | NYY | TOR | KCR | BAL | DET |
| Paul Sporer | SEA | DET | BOS | NYY | BAL | HOU | BOS | SEA |
| Ryan Blake | SEA | KCR | BOS | TOR | DET | TBR | SEA | BOS |
| Vlad Sedler | SEA | KCR | BOS | BAL | NYY | HOU | SEA | BOS |
| Writer | MVP | Cy Young | ROY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Cohen | Aaron Judge | Tarik Skubal | Kevin McGonigle |
| Ben Clemens | Aaron Judge | Cole Ragans | Kazuma Okamoto |
| Brendan Gawlowski | Aaron Judge | Cole Ragans | Kevin McGonigle |
| Chad Young | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Tarik Skubal | Kevin McGonigle |
| Dan Szymborski | Bobby Witt Jr. | Tarik Skubal | Kevin McGonigle |
| David Laurila | Bobby Witt Jr. | Tarik Skubal | Carter Jensen |
| Davy Andrews | Aaron Judge | Cole Ragans | Samuel Basallo |
| Eric Longenhagen | Bobby Witt Jr. | Dylan Cease | Kevin McGonigle |
| Jake Mailhot | Junior Caminero | Garrett Crochet | Kevin McGonigle |
| James Fegan | Bobby Witt Jr. | Garrett Crochet | Payton Tolle |
| Jason Martinez | Wyatt Langford | Jacob deGrom | Kevin McGonigle |
| Jay Jaffe | Bobby Witt Jr. | Garrett Crochet | Carter Jensen |
| Jeff Zimmerman | Bobby Witt Jr. | Bryan Woo | Colt Emerson |
| Joe Orrico | Bobby Witt Jr. | Garrett Crochet | Kevin McGonigle |
| Jon Becker | José Ramírez | Garrett Crochet | Samuel Basallo |
| Jordan Rosenblum | Aaron Judge | Tarik Skubal | Munetaka Murakami |
| Justin Mason | Bobby Witt Jr. | Tarik Skubal | Kazuma Okamoto |
| Kiri Oler | Gunnar Henderson | Garrett Crochet | Kazuma Okamoto |
| Matt Martell | Bobby Witt Jr. | Garrett Crochet | Kevin McGonigle |
| Meg Rowley | Bobby Witt Jr. | Garrett Crochet | Kevin McGonigle |
| Michael Baumann | Aaron Judge | Garrett Crochet | Kazuma Okamoto |
| Michael Rosen | Tarik Skubal | Tarik Skubal | Tatsuya Imai |
| Paul Sporer | Wyatt Langford | George Kirby | Kevin McGonigle |
| Ryan Blake | Julio Rodríguez | Tarik Skubal | Kevin McGonigle |
| Vlad Sedler | Bobby Witt Jr. | Garrett Crochet | Kazuma Okamoto |
| Writer | West | Central | East | WC1 | WC2 | WC3 | 1 Seed | 2 Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Cohen | LAD | CHC | NYM | PHI | ATL | PIT | LAD | NYM |
| Ben Clemens | LAD | MIL | NYM | PHI | ARI | SFG | LAD | NYM |
| Brendan Gawlowski | LAD | MIL | NYM | PHI | CHC | SDP | LAD | NYM |
| Chad Young | LAD | CHC | PHI | NYM | ATL | MIL | LAD | PHI |
| Dan Szymborski | LAD | CHC | PHI | NYM | MIL | SFG | LAD | CHC |
| David Laurila | LAD | CHC | NYM | ATL | MIL | SDP | LAD | CHC |
| Davy Andrews | LAD | CHC | NYM | MIL | PHI | CIN | LAD | CHC |
| Eric Longenhagen | LAD | MIL | NYM | ARI | PIT | CHC | LAD | MIL |
| Jake Mailhot | LAD | CHC | NYM | PHI | MIL | SDP | LAD | NYM |
| James Fegan | LAD | MIL | NYM | CHC | PHI | PIT | LAD | NYM |
| Jason Martinez | SDP | PIT | NYM | PHI | LAD | CHC | NYM | SDP |
| Jay Jaffe | LAD | MIL | NYM | CHC | PHI | PIT | LAD | NYM |
| Jeff Zimmerman | LAD | MIL | PHI | NYM | ATL | SDP | LAD | MIL |
| Joe Orrico | LAD | MIL | PHI | ATL | NYM | CHC | LAD | PHI |
| Jon Becker | LAD | CHC | NYM | PHI | ATL | MIL | LAD | NYM |
| Jordan Rosenblum | LAD | MIL | NYM | ATL | PHI | CHC | LAD | NYM |
| Justin Mason | LAD | CHC | PHI | NYM | MIL | ARI | LAD | PHI |
| Kiri Oler | LAD | CHC | NYM | PHI | MIL | ARI | LAD | NYM |
| Matt Martell | LAD | PIT | NYM | PHI | ARI | CIN | LAD | NYM |
| Meg Rowley | LAD | CHC | NYM | PHI | MIL | ARI | LAD | NYM |
| Michael Baumann | LAD | CHC | PHI | NYM | MIL | CIN | LAD | PHI |
| Michael Rosen | LAD | CHC | NYM | SDP | PHI | PIT | LAD | NYM |
| Paul Sporer | LAD | CHC | PHI | NYM | SDP | PIT | CHC | LAD |
| Ryan Blake | LAD | MIL | PHI | NYM | CHC | ATL | LAD | PHI |
| Vlad Sedler | LAD | CHC | NYM | PHI | MIL | ATL | LAD | CHC |
| Writer | MVP | Cy Young | ROY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Cohen | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Konnor Griffin |
| Ben Clemens | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Nolan McLean |
| Brendan Gawlowski | Juan Soto | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Konnor Griffin |
| Chad Young | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Sal Stewart |
| Dan Szymborski | Shohei Ohtani | Logan Webb | JJ Wetherholt |
| David Laurila | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | JJ Wetherholt |
| Davy Andrews | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Nolan McLean |
| Eric Longenhagen | Ketel Marte | Paul Skenes | Nolan McLean |
| Jake Mailhot | Shohei Ohtani | Cristopher Sánchez | Nolan McLean |
| James Fegan | Juan Soto | Paul Skenes | JJ Wetherholt |
| Jason Martinez | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Sal Stewart |
| Jay Jaffe | Juan Soto | Cristopher Sánchez | Nolan McLean |
| Jeff Zimmerman | Shohei Ohtani | Shohei Ohtani | Carson Benge |
| Joe Orrico | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | JJ Wetherholt |
| Jon Becker | Shohei Ohtani | Logan Webb | Nolan McLean |
| Jordan Rosenblum | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Nolan McLean |
| Justin Mason | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Nolan McLean |
| Kiri Oler | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Nolan McLean |
| Matt Martell | Juan Soto | Paul Skenes | Konnor Griffin |
| Meg Rowley | Shohei Ohtani | Cristopher Sánchez | Nolan McLean |
| Michael Baumann | Shohei Ohtani | Andrew Abbott | Nolan McLean |
| Michael Rosen | Shohei Ohtani | Nolan McLean | Nolan McLean |
| Paul Sporer | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Jesús Luzardo | Bubba Chandler |
| Ryan Blake | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Nolan McLean |
| Vlad Sedler | Shohei Ohtani | Cristopher Sánchez | Konnor Griffin |
| Writer | AL Pennant Winner | NL Pennant Winner | World Series Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Cohen | Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Ben Clemens | Toronto Blue Jays | Los Angeles Dodgers | Toronto Blue Jays |
| Brendan Gawlowski | New York Yankees | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Chad Young | Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Dan Szymborski | Boston Red Sox | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| David Laurila | Detroit Tigers | Chicago Cubs | Detroit Tigers |
| Davy Andrews | Boston Red Sox | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Eric Longenhagen | Detroit Tigers | Arizona Diamondbacks | Detroit Tigers |
| Jake Mailhot | Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| James Fegan | Toronto Blue Jays | New York Mets | New York Mets |
| Jason Martinez | Seattle Mariners | New York Mets | Seattle Mariners |
| Jay Jaffe | Seattle Mariners | New York Mets | Seattle Mariners |
| Jeff Zimmerman | Toronto Blue Jays | Los Angeles Dodgers | Toronto Blue Jays |
| Joe Orrico | Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Dodgers | Seattle Mariners |
| Jon Becker | Detroit Tigers | New York Mets | New York Mets |
| Jordan Rosenblum | Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Justin Mason | Detroit Tigers | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies |
| Kiri Oler | Seattle Mariners | Philadelphia Phillies | Seattle Mariners |
| Matt Martell | Toronto Blue Jays | Los Angeles Dodgers | Toronto Blue Jays |
| Meg Rowley | Boston Red Sox | Los Angeles Dodgers | Boston Red Sox |
| Michael Baumann | Detroit Tigers | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Michael Rosen | Baltimore Orioles | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Paul Sporer | Seattle Mariners | Chicago Cubs | Seattle Mariners |
| Ryan Blake | Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Dodgers | Seattle Mariners |
| Vlad Sedler | Boston Red Sox | New York Mets | New York Mets |
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
I see Eric Longenhagen picking the A’s to win the West… and I’m torn between “Eric has lost his mind” and “Eric knows a LOT more about baseball than me, maybe I should place a wager.” 🙂
Picked the backs to win the NL pennant too.
Yeah, but that’s just utterly crazy!
Can’t both be true?
For some reason I still remember when he picked Gabriel Moreno to win MVP in 2024 so don’t feel bad!
After reading Vlad Sedler last article saying no one on the Tigers worth targeting in fantasy and now being only person excluding them from making postseason, i gotta ask – why do you hate my favourite team??
i am just kidding – just funny noticed this on back to back days.
Happy Opening Day to all!
Eric Longenhagen and Jason Martinez live to bust up groupthink.
Longenhagen
AL West: Athletics
AL Pennant: Tigers
NL Pennant: D-Backs
Martinez
AL West: Rangers
NL Central: Pirates
AL MVP: Wyatt Langford
I love it.
David Laurila, especially in the NL, went on his own path a lot, too.
Martinez also the only one not to pick the Dodgers in the NL West.
On one hand I get it. It’s kinds boring to pick overwhelming favorites like Dodgers, Mariners, Tigers, Ohtani, Skenes, and Judge. And there’s no penalty for being wrong.
On the other hand, I wonder if there was some risk or reward other than bragging rights, say each writer put $20 with winner take all, if they would really make those predictions. Like do “you” really think the Padres will win the West or at you just trying to look smart if somehow the Dodgers collapse.
Also if you wanted to bet on someone winning NL Cy Young that is a real dark horse, Michael Rosen’s pick of Nolan McLean is a pretty good one. What happens when you stick a guy with a 55% ground ball rate in front of Francisco Lindor and Marcus Semien? I think there’s a small but not farfetched chance he has a lower ERA than Skenes did in 2025 (1.97).
It’s uncommon for a player who’s never appeared on an MVP ballot to win the award, so MVP Langford feels pretty spicy.
More people expect the Yankees to make the playoffs than the other competitors in the division, but fewer expect them to win the division
So does that just mean the Yankees have an extremely high floor?
Probably. But they also have a really high ceiling. Therefore, alternative theory: most baseball fans dislike the Yankees, but the subset that are baseball writers don’t want to look like haters. So they end up grudgingly admitting the team will be good, but they won’t concede that they’re elite.
The nature of the predictions leads to some interesting results like this. The top 4 teams in the AL East are pretty close by ZIPS and FG projected standings. But I think people are hesitant to pick all 4 to make the playoffs and it’s pretty likely one of them winds up .500 and misses. I suspect if we asked people to predicts records WC2, WC3, and “WC4” would be separated by a couple games in most standings but WC4 and worst record show up the same in the tables.
I predicted the Mets would beat the Red Sox in the World Series last year and looked quite foolish as the Mets missed the playoffs. That won’t stop me from predicting the Mets will win it all this year as I have a World Series we could have had twenty years ago if not for Yadier Bleeping Molina and Adam bleeping Wainwright. I’ll go Mets over Tigers in six.
Nobody remembers that you were just one of 25 picking the Dodgers to win the West. But if you pick someone else and you are right, bragging rights for a year. Someone wants to stand out from the crowd, and hoping we won’t notice what he’s trying to do.
I imagine that’s the thinking, but should getting only 3 division winners right when most people get 4 or 5 really get you bragging rights.
It’s like the pundits on TV who are wrong all the time. When they miss “oh, it was a long shot”; when they hit, they claim to be brilliant.
@jasonmartinez really thinks that Padres are the cream of the NL West crop? That prediction belongs in the BOLD predictions article!