FanGraphs 2026 Opening Day Chat
| 1:10 |
 Dan Szymborski: It’s a chat!
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| 1:10 |
: Hello everyone and welcome to our Opening Day(ish) chat!
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| 1:10 |
: Hello Dan!
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| 1:11 |
: Oh no, we’ve used up our entire quota of exclamation marks in the first 45 seconds.
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| 1:11 |
 Jay Jaffe: Hey hey, Happy Opening Day!
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| 1:11 |
Dan Szymborski: And I’ll be here for more than expected as I my brother-in-law is already home from his procedure, so I don’t have to spend part of Opening Day wrangling a six-year-old and a four-year-old
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| 1:11 |
Dan Szymborski: !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1111111111111oneoneoneoneonone
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| 1:11 |
Jay Jaffe: huzzah, Dan
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| 1:11 |
: Chat chat chat chat chat!
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| 1:12 |
: Oh no, we’ve used up our quota of ones as well. This could get dicey.
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| 1:12 |
Jay Jaffe: Our New York contingent is well-represented here. Expect some East Coast Bias™
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| 1:12 |
: Brooklyn is in the building.
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| 1:12 |
: Speaking of which:
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| 1:12 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m merely FROM the east coast
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| 1:13 |
Jay Jaffe: and your biases are a matter of pubic record through your ZiPS forecasts, which hate everybody’s favorite teams.
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| 1:12 |
: if the yankees transition to small ball-first play compared to their homer-heavy 2025 season, are they a legitimate threat to (finally) topple the dodgers dynasty?
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| 1:13 |
: Um, no, I’d much rather they kept on hitting home runs.
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| 1:14 |
: I don’t think you have to worry about this, but it would be funny if Aaron Judge started bunting
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| 1:13 |
: Hello from Citi Field, where I’ll be live chatting from Mets-Pirates! I will not be watching the other games, but I’ll be able to provide you with random jersey sitings from the park
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| 1:13 |
Dan Szymborski: Wait, am I the only midwesterner on full time staff?
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| 1:13 |
: Jon Becker
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| 1:14 |
: Who will be joining the chat for the next game!
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| 1:13 |
Dan Szymborski: (I’ve lived in Ohio since 2007)
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| 1:14 |
Dan Szymborski: Isn’t he from Chicago? Is that really the midwest? I think of that as an east coast city that’s in the midwest
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| 1:16 |
: I feel like I know a lot of Chicagoans who would strongly disagree.
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| 1:16 |
: I hit a homer yesterday, but now I can’t play on Opening Day? What’s going on with my finger?
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| 1:18 |
: Hopefully nothing too bad, but I am very much in favor of giving injuries — especially hand injuries — enough time to heal. Hitting one home run is great, but the Astros would rather you hit 25 of them, even if it means missing a few games up front. Look at Jackson Chourio.
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| 1:17 |
: Things are off to a great start at Citi Field. Christopher Jackson, most notable for playing George Washington in Hamilton, messed up the lyrics to the national anthem.
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| 1:19 |
: Wait, he did? I completely tuned it out after a minute. (Sorry, General.)
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| 1:17 |
: The amount of Mariners optimism here and on other websites makes this Mariners fan very uncomfortable. Also, welcome aboard, Ryan Blake! Love your writing here and at Lookout Landing.
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| 1:18 |
Jay Jaffe: If it makes you feel any worse, even the folks on staff who previously covered the Mariners have picked them to at least win the division.
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| 1:19 |
: I’m very psyched to have Ryan on board. I think he’s crushing it so far.
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| 1:20 |
: You should all read Ryan’s essay on the Mariners, Cal Raleigh and J-Rod from this morning. It’s very good
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| 1:18 |
 David Laurila: Greetings, all. Welcome to the real Opening Day, i.e. the one where there games are being played during the day and you don’t need to subscribe to a streaming service to watch.
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| 1:18 |
Dan Szymborski: Well, you do need peacock for the first one!
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| 1:18 |
Jay Jaffe: it’s on NBC here in NYC
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| 1:18 |
: Speaking of Mariners optimism, I nearly made my bold prediction: Josh Naylor leads the American League in stolen bases. Let’s go Thickey Henderson!
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| 1:19 |
David Laurila: Ditto on NBC in Boston.
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| 1:19 |
Jay Jaffe: That’s a little too bold!
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| 1:19 |
Dan Szymborski: Though I basically get all the streaming services on top of still having cable, so media companies see me as a fat cat sucker
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| 1:19 |
: I just wanted to say how much I enjoy going to FanGraphs dot com every day, year round, to see what’s doing. Thanks and have a great season!
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| 1:20 |
: How many thumbs, though?
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| 1:20 |
: Whoops, replied to the wrong part.
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| 1:19 |
: >this guy< has great taste!
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| 1:20 |
Dan Szymborski: It would be OK to take holidays off since we do!
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| 1:20 |
Jay Jaffe: This my ninth Opening Day on staff at FanGraphs. In keeping with the Rickey references, next year I’ll have tenure!
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| 1:20 |
Dan Szymborski: What can we do with tenure? Can I write numbers up to ten instead of nine in letters?
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| 1:21 |
: As your editor, I say no
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| 1:21 |
: Really wish the Pirates had acquired a 3B this offseason.
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| 1:21 |
Dan Szymborski: ELEVEN
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| 1:21 |
Dan Szymborski: FIFTY-THREE
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| 1:21 |
: Happy Opening Day! What’s something a positive player could do today that would cause you to confidently move the arrow up on your internal, mental view of them?
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| 1:22 |
Jay Jaffe: A four-hit day from Marcus Semien, who was brutal in the early going last year (by which i mean March to late August) would help
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| 1:22 |
Dan Szymborski: Catch Rob Manfred in a giant net
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| 1:22 |
Jay Jaffe: Whas the highest ZiPS odds on that, Dan?
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| 1:23 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t know how to project that, but someone small and stealthy?
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| 1:23 |
Dan Szymborski: Who likes to play golf and can catch Manfred there?
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| 1:23 |
: Is the media endgame for MLB to own all local rights (except for the few largest markets), sell them as a bundle or individually to viewers, and then sell piecemeal exclusive national games to whichever media company will pay?
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| 1:29 |
: From what I’ve heard, the endgame is to own the local rights for all markets, even the largest ones. Problem is, the Yankees, Dodgers, etc. almost certainly won’t go for it without massive concessions elsewhere. I’m not sure what an agreement would look like here if they leave out the biggest market teams from it but absorb all the others. But this is what Rob Manfred wants to do before his commissionership is done.
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| 1:23 |
Dan Szymborski: I’im not sure MLB has a specific endgame except whatever approach gives them the most money
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| 1:24 |
Dan Szymborski: In any case, I guess I already use my “tenure” to keep Meg and Matt putting up with me
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| 1:24 |
David Laurila: Fun fact: Gee Walker hit for the cycle on Opening Day in 1937 while playing for the Detroit Tigers.
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| 1:24 |
: So the Yankees have once again come out strong to start the season. What do you think it is this time? Atomic batting gloves? Sharknado helmets?
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| 1:24 |
: Oh shoot, I was absolutely going to make this joke in my predictions article, but I forgot.
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| 1:24 |
: You know, what ever happened to people saying “first” on things. Why did that die?
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| 1:24 |
: How much more leash should I give Judge before he starts losing playing time to Dominguez?
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| 1:25 |
Jay Jaffe: Well since Dominguez was optioned, he can’t come back until April 4, so that’s the length of Judge’s leash.
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| 1:25 |
: Regardless, probably more than one game.
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| 1:24 |
Dan Szymborski: Whoever opens the chat always gets to be first
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| 1:25 |
: Brandon Lowe just hit the most popup-to-1B home run I’ve ever seen
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| 1:25 |
: Most writers/editors in a chat ever?
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| 1:25 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure what the record is
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| 1:26 |
: Favorite Pitcher/Batter matchup to see today?
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| 1:26 |
: This is the most obvious one, but can you do much better than Skenes/Soto?
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| 1:27 |
Jay Jaffe: What Davy said but also Skubal/Tatis
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| 1:27 |
: Oooh.
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| 1:27 |
: 47 degree launch angle on that home run, that’s insane
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| 1:27 |
David Laurila: That was a “high fly to right for out” that wasn’t. It just kept going, going, until gone.
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| 1:27 |
Dan Szymborski: Also, I have an Out of the Park Baseball 27 Steam key to give out. Make your pick for the first Pirate or Met to get an extra-base hit by submitting a comment, and the first person to get it right will get the key.
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| 1:27 |
: What do you guys expect from my Rangers this year?
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| 1:27 |
: Mostly the eyeball thing.
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| 1:28 |
Jay Jaffe: A lot of deserved negative public relations for the Texas Ranger statue. That franchise can piss up a rope.
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| 1:30 |
: In all sincerity, I’m a bit worried about them. You can definitely see a path to success, but I’m not encouraged by the amount of things that would have to go right.
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| 1:27 |
Jay Jaffe: And speaking of matchups, here’s my annual roundup of the Opening Day pitchers https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-annual-opening-day-starting-pitcher-ro…
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| 1:29 |
: Anyone have a Baseball Music Playlist to prepare for today?
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| 1:29 |
Jay Jaffe: It’s just “The Boys are Back in Town” on repeat
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| 1:29 |
Jay Jaffe: (taking a cue from the NBC broadcast)
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| 1:29 |
: Are any of ya’ll writers/editors Canadian?
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| 1:29 |
Dan Szymborski: Dammit, my peeacock is minutes behind
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| 1:30 |
: Jennifer Garner is pretending she goes to the supermarket.
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| 1:30 |
Dan Szymborski: I must have paused it at some point, I’m like five minutes behind
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| 1:30 |
: I’ll keep you up to date on all the commercials.
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| 1:31 |
: Mountain Dew Baja Blast exists.
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| 1:30 |
: Hi from the UK where we can actually watch Skenes live & with a 2 run lead already, good luck Mets. As a Giants fan this season can only get better 🤦🏻♂️
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| 1:31 |
David Laurila: Thanks for joining us, mate, Hope you are a Toffees fan as well as a Giants fan.
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| 1:31 |
: Dan, someone already hit a HR by the time you posted that
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| 1:31 |
: A’s-related bold prediction #2: Max Muncy (A’s) outhits Max Muncy (Dodgers). (Reasoning: mostly just a strong spring for the younger Muncy plus the inevitably
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| 1:31 |
: This is a fun one, though I can’t say I’m willing to co-sign
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| 1:31 |
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, that was a hialrious fail. I’ll try that again for White Sox/Brewers i 40 mins
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| 1:31 |
: Matt Shaw getting the start in RF with Seiya Suzuki out, I was surprised by this. A lot of unexpected stuff going on from that injury, I expected Kevin Alcántara to finally get a shot at some run, but he was sent down in favor of Dylan Carlson and Michael Conforto. I then expected Conforto to start against righties, but we now have Shaw drawing the opening start against a righty. Lots of moving parts, and it isn’t even April!
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| 1:32 |
Jay Jaffe: Less is gonna be more with Conforto, just look at the Dodgers’ 2025 regular season vs. postseason
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| 1:32 |
: Opening day is bringing back memories of torpedo bats for me. Are they still a thing? Are they still controversial?
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| 1:32 |
: Still a thing. No longer controversial. I’m not sure there was ever that much controversy, per se.
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| 1:32 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s funny how quick the OMG TORPEDO BATS ARE RUINING BASEBALL went away
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| 1:32 |
Jay Jaffe: As soon as the fair-weather fans and media stopped paying attention
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| 1:32 |
Dan Szymborski: I swear, I was done hearing about those by like April 7th
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| 1:33 |
: Here’s a bold prediction. The A’s make it as a wild card team. What do guys think of that?
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| 1:33 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s not the craziest. If the rotation doesn’t suck, of a sudden it’s a pretty good team
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| 1:33 |
: What he said.
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| 1:33 |
: A’s related bold prediction #3: Jacob Lopez leads A’s pitchers in fWAR (reasoning: mediocre competition and he looked pretty dominant down the stretch)
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| 1:34 |
: They even started making metal torpedo bats for NCAA
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| 1:34 |
: That’s fun!
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| 1:34 |
: I thought the strike zone box wasn’t gonna be on TV anymore. It’s been on both games
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| 1:34 |
: So from what I’ve read, it’s still going to be there, but it’s not going to show the location of the ball, and it is going to accurately reflect the top and bottom of the zone.
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| 1:34 |
: Davy, your 99/1% prediction articles was some of the best comedy writing I’ve seen in a long time (basrball or non baseball).
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| 1:36 |
: Thank you! It’s a real I-can’t-believe-this-is-my-job endeavor for me.
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| 1:34 |
Jay Jaffe: LOL Juan Soto showing bunt on his first pitch
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| 1:34 |
: Ok, Put me down for a Murakami XBH. I think he goes yard in this game.
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| 1:35 |
Dan Szymborski: OK, I’ll put you down for Murakami
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| 1:35 |
: put me down for brice turang
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| 1:35 |
: inevitability of aging curves
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| 1:35 |
: is skenes washed
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| 1:35 |
Dan Szymborski: actually, you can say in the questions I can find it, I don’t want to fill up chat
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| 1:35 |
Jay Jaffe: This is the year Soto hits 1.000
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| 1:36 |
: They’ve changed some of the displays at Citi Field, so now I have no idea where to find the pitch metrics. I can see the walk-up music credits, at least
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| 1:36 |
Jay Jaffe: FWIW I can see the ball location in the pitch box as well
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| 1:37 |
: Oh, was it that they won’t indicate whether it’s a ball or strike anymore? (filled in for strike, not filled in for ball)
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| 1:36 |
Dan Szymborski: are you all seeing Bichette bat?
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| 1:36 |
Dan Szymborski: I want to make sure
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| 1:36 |
Jay Jaffe: yes
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| 1:37 |
: What’s for lunch today?
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| 1:37 |
Jay Jaffe: frozen chicken dumplings and a homemade version of the Xi’an spicy smashed cucumber salad
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| 1:38 |
: I had a bunch of leftovers: tofu stir fry, pad thai, slice of pizza. The fridge is very full right now.
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| 1:37 |
Dan Szymborski: graham crackers and apple juice. When I don’t have time for a meal, I tend to eat like a four-year-old in nursery school
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| 1:37 |
Dan Szymborski: I thought I was giong to babysit, so didn’t put too much thought into it
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| 1:38 |
: Why didn’t Bichette play for Team Brazil in the WBC?
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| 1:39 |
: I assume it was because of the knee injury he suffered last year. You don’t want to mess around with that, especially when you’re joining a new team on a giant contract.
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| 1:38 |
: Oneil Cruz made that play at third much closer than it had any right to be. Lindor got a great jump, cut the base beautifully, and yet the play was bang-bang. I have a pretty good feeling about him this year
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| 1:46 |
: Never mind.
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| 1:39 |
Dan Szymborski: Boba Chette is from Coruscant
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| 1:39 |
: Will Tyler O’Neill hit another Opening Day HR?
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| 1:39 |
David Laurila: I believe that is in the starting lineup today — he had to be, right? — so maybe wouldn’t want to bet against it.
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| 1:40 |
: Love it when a cleanup hitter bunts on a 1-1 pitch
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| 1:40 |
: I don’t think it ever computed for me the 3/4ths of the NYM infield is brand new to the team this year
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| 1:40 |
: Dan, that’s what my wife thought Bo
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| 1:40 |
: name was
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| 1:41 |
: Sad to see Bo go as a Jays fan….but I think he’s already starting to physically decline.
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| 1:41 |
: Bold prediction question: will the Pirates three major offensive additions (Ozuna, Lowe, O’Hearn) collectively hit more than 117 homers – the team’s total from last year?
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| 1:41 |
David Laurila: This seems unlikely, but as that number has decreased to 116, the odds have improved.
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| 1:41 |
Dan Szymborski: One of my most used photoshops
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| 1:41 |
Dan Szymborski: 
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| 1:42 |
: Thoughts on Netflix’s presentation yesterday? Why was that dude yelling “THIS IS BASEBALL!!” like it was from the movie 300 “THIS IS SPARTA!!!!”
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| 1:43 |
: I still have no idea who that guy is, but I was so glad I didn’t hear the sound for any of that.
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| 1:42 |
: So Skenes’ ERA is now nine. Is this the highest it’s ever been in his career at any point?
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| 1:42 |
: Yup.
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| 1:42 |
David Laurila: Skene’s ERA is actually 27.00 as I type this.
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| 1:43 |
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, he threw a few scoreless innings in his debut
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| 1:43 |
Dan Szymborski: before trouble
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| 1:43 |
: Skenes has thrown 26 pitches and gotten exactly 1 whiff.
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| 1:43 |
: YAAAASSSSSSSS BobA cHEtt in-zone bounty hunter
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| 1:43 |
: I realize now it’s going to be 27, not 9, and my brain didn’t really engage. But same idea
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| 1:43 |
: Does skenes’ delivery look different compared to last year? It looks more “turn-y”
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| 1:43 |
: Michael Rosen would call it rotational as opposed to linear. And I’m not sure; I’m mostly paying attention to the chat at this point.
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| 1:43 |
: Confession: I was mentally pronouncing Carson Benge “Beng-ay” not “Benj”
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| 1:44 |
Dan Szymborski: I was very happy when Nate Lowe, Josh Lowe, and Brandon Lowe stopped being in the same organization because I’d always forget which one of them couldn’t pronounce his last name
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| 1:44 |
: Is there a way to remove the little flags on the site? It’s blocking content
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| 1:44 |
: He has no feel for any of his pitches. Looks really uncomfortable
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| 1:44 |
Jay Jaffe: Man, Paul Skenes is pitching like he’d be better off serving in the Air Force.
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| 1:45 |
Dan Szymborski: I wish you could sign players while a game was going on. It’d be fun if one of the team signed Ottavino when they needed an extra reliever live on mic
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| 1:45 |
: I still always think of that Mr. Plow headline when Brandon Lowe’s name comes up
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| 1:46 |
: Man I love me some Jay Jaffe snark
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| 1:46 |
: Pardon me; just going to ask Meg if she can take down that second article I wrote about Cruz’s defense.
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| 1:46 |
Jay Jaffe: woof
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| 1:46 |
: also, who said Cruz is gonna be a good fielder
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| 1:47 |
: Nobody. Pretty sure nobody said that.
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| 1:47 |
: It was me… I was wrong
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| 1:47 |
: Opening Day optimism!
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| 1:47 |
Dan Szymborski: That’s consecutive NL Cy Young favorites beat up
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| 1:47 |
Jay Jaffe: OMFG
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| 1:47 |
David Laurila: An extra-base hit in the box score, an E-8 in reality.
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| 1:47 |
: OMG
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| 1:47 |
: Can Cruz play SS?
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| 1:47 |
Dan Szymborski: Beware Cristopher Sanchez
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| 1:47 |
: hahahaha..
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| 1:48 |
: the speed at which Ottavino went from MLB clubhouse to Youtube to Regional Sports Network Studio to WBC player back to Sports Analyst, he basically was signed from the booth
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| 1:48 |
: officially, this is the worst start of skenes career
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| 1:48 |
: I have no idea how that was scored a double. But it is wild to look up at the scoreboard and see a 135.00 ERA for anyone, let alone Skenes
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| 1:48 |
: Not great, Bob
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| 1:48 |
Dan Szymborski: You can’t expect to just see a sun in the sky
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| 1:48 |
: Apparently the Pirates new strategy of “we’re gonna collect big hitters because defense is dumb” is not showing great immediate returns
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| 1:48 |
: Just wanted to say that this is my first opening day as a baseball fan, started following baseball after getting an R&D internship this upcoming summer, and have been using fangraphs every day to get up to speed! Much love!
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| 1:48 |
David Laurila: First time this year thinking, “This game is drunk.”
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| 1:49 |
: I don’t think he is going to make it out of the first inning
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| 1:49 |
: And there’s Don Kelly
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| 1:49 |
: Wow
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| 1:49 |
: as a Fried fan, can’t relate to seeing my ace get roughed up on Opening day
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| 1:49 |
Dan Szymborski: This is like my first game of MLB the Show when I haven’t played in months
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| 1:49 |
: Mets fans are cheering for Skenes as he walks off the mound
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| 1:49 |
Jay Jaffe: Donnie decides that it’s Skenes who’s out of his element
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| 1:50 |
: Either this game is gonna end 16-13 or absolutely nothing is going to happen for the next 8 innings
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| 1:50 |
: Any Pirates fans in? 😳
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| 1:50 |
: If so, I’m very sorry.
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| 1:50 |
Dan Szymborski: More evidence why fielding percentage is a dumb stat
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| 1:50 |
: Mets opening day magic
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| 1:50 |
: I am now willing to count out the pirates
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| 1:50 |
: Fantasy question: Since Skenes ERA is over 40.00, can I drop him for Seth Lugo?
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| 1:50 |
: i’d normally let Skenes wear one this early, might as well get it out of the way, but you can’t let him keep throwing this many pitches in one inning
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| 1:51 |
: On the bright side, the Pirates fans got about 10 pitches worth of hope this year, an infinite improvement over previous years.
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| 1:51 |
: Is this the Team USA curse?
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| 1:51 |
: I am now officially OUT on RA/9 WAR after witnessing this inning
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| 1:51 |
: I haven’t seen a Mets Opening Day this good since my debut
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| 1:51 |
: WEAR SUNGLASSES DURING THE SUNNY DAY
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| 1:51 |
: we’re 30 minutes into the season and I think we already need to have wellness checks for Pitt fans
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| 1:52 |
: Dr. Robby will take care of you.
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| 1:52 |
David Laurila: Kelly certainly lifted Skenes more for pitch count than lack of effectiveness — brutal defense behind him, as well as poor batted-ball luck — but even so… wow.
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| 1:53 |
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS now projects Skenes to finish with a 3.08 ERA, up from 2.80 an hour ago
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| 1:53 |
: This is a bonkers stat
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| 1:53 |
: Goodness.
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| 1:53 |
: Well, badness.
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| 1:53 |
Dan Szymborski: If no more runs
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| 1:54 |
Dan Szymborski: He’d have fallen to second, but Logan Webb…
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| 1:54 |
: My junior year of HS, our team lost our opener 31-1 (yes true story), and this seems somehow worse
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| 1:54 |
: Defense is important, kids. Don’t neglect it
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| 1:54 |
Jay Jaffe: Skenes’ line 37 pitches, 0.2 innings, 4 hits, 5 runs (all earned), 2 walks, 1 strikeouts. 55% CSW but woof, that defense
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| 1:54 |
: Hey now, Adam Ottavino and Carlos Pena are the pride of Northeastern. Also, I had classes with Toby Fox there(Hopefully Dan gets this)
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| 1:55 |
Dan Szymborski: NO changed rest-of-season projection though
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| 1:55 |
Dan Szymborski: Undertale!
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| 1:55 |
: Watching some Skenes before my Nats to remind myself what good baseball could look like
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| 1:55 |
David Laurila: Pirates fans can perhaps blame George for what has transpired.
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| 1:55 |
: You mean the best ERA in baseball during spring training Nats? Those Nats?
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| 1:55 |
Dan Szymborski: The Undertale score was terrific
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| 1:56 |
Dan Szymborski: Bonetrousle was a killer track
|
| 1:56 |
: How much has Cruz’s defensive projection changed Dan?
|
| 1:56 |
: THAT’S a good question.
|
| 1:56 |
: Speaking of pronunciations, I am so glad that I heard an announcer say “Andy Pages” before I attempted to utter his name in real life
|
| 1:56 |
: Let’s hope Peralta didn’t cool off too much after that bottom of the first inning
|
| 1:56 |
: Mets will win A LOT of games if LouBob is drawing a 10 pitch walk vs Skenes
|
| 1:56 |
: Jay, this is the billion dollar question but do you ever expect a salary cap in MLB?
|
| 1:57 |
: Judging by today’s early goings, is it reasonable to assume that the NYMs are going to score 1,000 runs this season?
|
| 1:57 |
: This month.
|
| 1:57 |
Dan Szymborski: While I know how Andy Pages is pronounced, I still like to sing “Andy Pages Andy Pages Time to Get Your Andy Pages” to the Picture Pages theme
|
| 1:57 |
: How many games until Cruz is full time DH
|
| 1:58 |
Jay Jaffe: how badly do you want to see Marcell Ozuna’s defense?
|
| 1:58 |
Dan Szymborski: I want to see Oneil Cruz accidentally set a fire in the dugout as a DH and get a de facto negative defensive rating as a DH
|
| 2:00 |
: I dunno about setting a fire, but if he fouls a ball into the dugout and hurts Skenes wuold that qualify?
|
| 2:00 |
Dan Szymborski: Depends if the 67.50 ERA is sustainable!
|
| 2:01 |
: Did anybody clock in the Mets pronunciation primer Carson Benge last name was published as pronounced “Ben”
|
| 2:02 |
Dan Szymborski: Any time I don’t know how to pronounce a player’s last name, I pretend it’s French, so that my idiocy looks like I’m making a joke. Luckily, not a lot of players with Polish last names
|
| 2:02 |
: If anyone is interested in a largely useless and overly long analysis of the statcast performance of A’s players this spring, I wrote one. Technically it features quotes from Ben Clemens and Brendan Gawlowski. https://www.athleticsnation.com/post/7TCrvh22zYUm
|
| 2:03 |
: Here’s the billion dollar question for everyone in this chat: Do you ever expect a salary cap to come to MLB?
|
| 2:03 |
Jay Jaffe: Not in my lifetime. i don’t think there’s a bigger non-starter as far as the MLBPA is concerned.
|
| 2:04 |
: If the past few years have taught me anything, it’s that people are a lot more willing to throw away a good thing than I ever realized.
|
| 2:03 |
Dan Szymborski: Ever is a long time
|
| 2:03 |
Dan Szymborski: and I consider the current system a soft salary cap
|
| 2:03 |
: Hmm, I feel like I gained nothing from that in-game managerial interview
|
| 2:03 |
Dan Szymborski: Are you ever going to get much from one of those, honestly?
|
| 2:04 |
Dan Szymborski: Honestly, if I were a manager, my reaction would always be “No, go away” in game
|
| 2:04 |
David Laurila: In-game interview seldom add to the quality of a broadcast.
|
| 2:04 |
: That was my point
|
| 2:04 |
Dan Szymborski: I only find interviews interesting if you can actually get something interesting to be said. And those NEVER have anything
|
| 2:04 |
: there’s a certain baseball podcast I listen to where all 3 hosts, who are baseball writers, always shockingly mispronounce names as if they’ve only ever seen them written down and not spoken
|
| 2:05 |
: Is it…a good podcast?
|
| 2:05 |
Jay Jaffe: There’s really no excuse given the availability of punctuation guides put out by the league and elsewhere.
|
| 2:05 |
Dan Szymborski: Like every interview about an upcoming movie. If you’re not going to drop a bomb about something, I don’t give a flying fart about your PR appearance
|
| 2:05 |
: I’m not sure we get much of anything from any interview, in game or not.
|
| 2:05 |
David Laurila: Hey now,,,
|
| 2:06 |
: Struck a nerve!
|
| 2:06 |
Dan Szymborski: David actually elicits interesting information about specific things though!
|
| 2:06 |
: I honestly don’t understand how he does it.
|
| 2:06 |
Jay Jaffe: I am envious of David’s interview superpowers
|
| 2:06 |
: Laurila should really apply to be the in game interviewer! Where can I sign that petition?
|
| 2:07 |
: Eno has been pronouncing Alcantara Al Kon Tra for years
|
| 2:07 |
Jay Jaffe: TBF there are a number of players who spell their names like that and there’s some variation among them. Some have been Americanized I guess.
|
| 2:07 |
David Laurila: I should not, nor will not, apply for such a position.
|
| 2:08 |
Dan Szymborski: Harry Caray pronouncing anyone’s name correctly was an accident
|
| 2:08 |
: the writers who host this podcast are well respected in their field and should definitely know better. One of them has a pretty grating laugh, though.
|
| 2:09 |
: It sort of sounds like you don’t like this podcast you listen to. As I understand it, there are many options out there when it comes to podcasts.
|
| 2:08 |
Dan Szymborski: I wish ONLY my laugh was grating
|
| 2:09 |
: Speaking of Laurila interviews, are you continuing the ‘talks hitting’ or ‘talks pitching’ series? Those were amazing to read.
|
| 2:09 |
David Laurila: Thanks. I’m sure I will do some of both this season.
|
| 2:10 |
: re Alcántara, I will say that obviously a lot of players go by Americanized versions, but basic Spanish phonology should be a prerequisite to commentate in MLB. They could learn in an hour!
|
| 2:12 |
: dont they get 10k for doing the interview
|
| 2:12 |
David Laurila: I think that is just players mic’d on the field (which is a bad idea IMO), and not managers answering a few questions from a sideline reporter.
|
| 2:12 |
: Bo Bichette shaky arm watch…
|
| 2:13 |
: Probably the sun’s fault.
|
| 2:13 |
: Who will play right field for the New York Mets full season?
|
| 2:14 |
Jay Jaffe: Benge isn’t up there to sit, but I’d expect him to yield to some lefties in favor of Tyrone Taylor. Brett Baty may spot there as well, and I think eventually we’ll see a bit of Mike Tauchman once he recovers from knee surgery.
|
| 2:14 |
: WOOOAH MEIDROTH
|
| 2:15 |
: can I get meidtroh for the OOTP thing
|
| 2:15 |
: Gotta feel good to hit a dinger in your first at-bat of the year
|
| 2:15 |
: Anyone have Meidroth dong?
|
| 2:15 |
: Surely not.
|
| 2:15 |
: Brandon Lowe 2-for-2 with 2 HR!
|
| 2:15 |
: Oneil Cruz is just having a very bad day.
|
| 2:15 |
: Woohoo ABS helps Mets get a strikeout
|
| 2:16 |
Jay Jaffe: Holy Lowe!
|
| 2:16 |
: whoever is choosing to selectively put up comments going at multiple other podcasts and writers… seems bitter
|
| 2:17 |
: This is my fault, and I certainly didn’t mean to hurt any feelings. Honestily, EW is the only podcast I listen to, so I have no idea which one they were talking about. I was just so curious about this person who listens to a podcast that they don’t seem to actually like.
|
| 2:16 |
: Following up an Oneil Cruz walk-turned-strikeout on an ABS challenge. Incredible
|
| 2:16 |
David Laurila: Richie Garcia presumably hated that ABS challenge.
|
| 2:18 |
Jay Jaffe: Richie Garcia, who based on the Jeffrey Maier call and the Mark Langston World Seeries call has two of the more notable umpiring gaffes of our lifetime – and led the mass resignation of umpires in 1999 but didn’t get rehired. He’s one to talk about anything.
|
| 2:17 |
: Love that play from Soto!
|
| 2:17 |
: Juan Soto just made a nice play to cut off a Bryan Reynolds liner in the left-center gap and hold him to a single
|
| 2:17 |
: That Meidroth home run: 107.7 off the bat, 28 degree LA, barrel, HR in 30/30 parks.
|
| 2:17 |
: At what point do the Pirates throw their hands up on Cruz and sit him as a DH?
|
| 2:18 |
: It’s so hard to do that with those tools. And he hasn’t really shown the bat for DH.
|
| 2:17 |
: I’m not going to get too excited over a second bad outfielder making a good play, though. I’ve learned my lesson
|
| 2:18 |
: You’ve got to accentuate the positive, I’m told.
|
| 2:19 |
: And that is how you play outfield defense
|
| 2:20 |
: My bad. I met the ones on TV. I read the interviews here every week! Ugh.
|
| 2:20 |
David Laurila: Figured as much. Was joking with my response. We’re good.
|
| 2:21 |
: Watch out, Mike. David holds a grudge.
|
| 2:21 |
: We still don’t know if the welding helmet is for all the Pirates or just a BLowe thing
|
| 2:22 |
Jay Jaffe: The welding helmet is cool but they’ll probably supply less cumbersome helmets to their, uh, lesser defenders to wear in the field.
|
| 2:21 |
: Venting about the A’s travel schedule: they start in Toronto, then play in atlanta, then they fly to Sac for their first homestand, which is only 3 games? Then they immediately fly back to the East Coast to play the Yankees and Mets. Brutal stretch and I’m worried it could immediately put them in a hole to start the season
|
| 2:21 |
: Does Fangraphs have any writers at the park tonight?
|
| 2:22 |
: Matt Martell is at Citi Field. I really wanted to be there as well, but I have to get my car from the shop and take care of some family stuff.
|
| 2:22 |
: Matt promised me he’d try the Mr. Met whoopie pie and tell me all about it.
|
| 2:23 |
: I sure did — I totally didn’t forget or anything
|
| 2:23 |
: As a former Expos fan I laugh at your concern about the A’s travel. 😉
|
| 2:23 |
: Put a shirt on, George
|
| 2:23 |
: can we get Davy to do a subathon at the start of next year so we don’t need to worry about the lock-out
|
| 2:23 |
: I’m not sure what exactly this might entail, but probably.
|
| 2:24 |
: At what point do the Pirates throw up their hands and play Cruz, Ozuna, O’Hearn, Davis, Reynolds, and Horwitz at DH and roll with only three defenders?
|
| 2:24 |
: Interesting…
|
| 2:24 |
: Never stop rooting for the Expos.
|
| 2:25 |
: Okay I wasn’t sure about the Benintendi 30 homer thing but the Brewers broadcast can’t stop zooming in on his arms and holy shit, where did he buy those guns from? Indiana?
|
| 2:25 |
David Laurila: On a related note, I was at Blue Jays camp for a few days and Addison Barger definitely hit the weight room this winter.
|
| 2:26 |
: During the ALCS last year, he was definitely the guy whose batting practice just sounded different from everybody else’s.
|
| 2:27 |
: Favorite stadium name? Least favorite stadium name?
|
| 2:27 |
: I can’t imagine I’m alone here, but the more branded the name, the less I like it. Nationals Park, yes. T-Mobile Park, no.
|
| 2:28 |
Jay Jaffe: Dodger Stadium on the favorite, and any corporate-named stadium on the least favorite.
|
| 2:27 |
Dan Szymborski: Back
|
| 2:28 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m biased, and Oriole Park at Camden Yards is the only long stadium name I like
|
| 2:28 |
: Hard to beat.
|
| 2:28 |
: I’m actually enjoying this booth. Especially with Ottavino chiming in
|
| 2:28 |
: wasn’t dodger renamed to Uniqlo stadium
|
| 2:29 |
: So techinically they just named the field. It’s Uniqlo Field at Dodger Stadium.
|
| 2:28 |
: Matt Boyd with two K’s in the first. Clearly the frontrunner for Cy over Skenes.
|
| 2:28 |
David Laurila: He already had nicest-guy-in-the-league status to take into the season. That reputation is well-earned.
|
| 2:29 |
: loanDepot is the worst name because of the dumb capitalization. Of the branded ones, “Rate Field” is hilarious
|
| 2:30 |
: Yeah, Rate Field cracks me up.
|
| 2:30 |
: What do you guys think of my surprise pick for this season: I picked the A’s to make the playoffs as a wild card.
|
| 2:30 |
Dan Szymborski: Eric I think agrees!
|
| 2:30 |
: Don Kelly has to be kicking himself for not starting Yohan Ramirez today
|
| 2:31 |
: Favorite pitch aesthetically? Now that Kershaw’s curveball is out of the league I might have to go with McLean’s sweeper.
|
| 2:32 |
: When the camera angle is right, I love a great Skenes/Ohtani/McLean sweeper. It looks like it’s just exploding upward while it hangs a louie.
|
| 2:31 |
Dan Szymborski: Devin Williams changeup/screwball thing
|
| 2:32 |
: also Dan, since no-one got meidrtoh, and I had turang, can I get the OOTP
|
| 2:33 |
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, that seems fair
|
| 2:33 |
: Did Peralta somehow get more crossbodied with his delivery or is this just the new camera angle and it was always like that?
|
| 2:34 |
Jay Jaffe: They’re talking about this very thing on the broadcast right now. I think the different camera angle is making it more obvious but I don’t have a great visual recall offhand.
|
| 2:34 |
: Too many Dr’s appointments. I am forced to miss part of my favorite thing at Fangraphs, the Opening Day chat. The 1:00 one is over but my 3:10 is coming. I will be back for the remainder but it is amazing to see Webb and Skenes get blasted in their first starts. Baseball will never stop mystifying us.
|
| 2:35 |
: I always love your contributions. Sorry you won’t be here longer!
|
| 2:35 |
Dan Szymborski: $40 a month to use tweetdeck now? How much are they snorting?
|
| 2:35 |
: Jay, have you ever heard The Strokes song – An ode to the Mets?
|
| 2:36 |
Jay Jaffe: I had not, until now! here’s the official video to share with everybody
|
| 2:36 |
: Davy, I’m gonna go get a Mr. Met whoopie pie
|
| 2:36 |
: Hell yeah.
|
| 2:37 |
: Hey we already got PCA swinging at a pitch that hit him, hey hey
|
| 2:37 |
: Le Miz is a great first pitcher for Murakami to face in the bigs
|
| 2:37 |
: Eventually people get used to branding, like Wrigley Field. Or even more weirdly, Busch Stadium. MLB didn’t let August Busch call Sportsman’s Park “Budweiser Stadium” after he bought the Cardinals in 1953, so he named the park after himself and then in 1955 introduced Busch beer.
|
| 2:37 |
: They’re probably snorting almost all of those 40 dollars Dan, it’s why they need it
|
| 2:38 |
Dan Szymborski: Doing one month while I figure out an alternative, but I’m not happy about it
|
| 2:38 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t mind paying for services I use. But that’s an absurd amount
|
| 2:38 |
: Brandon Lowe x2, Joey Wiemer, Chase Meidroth. Big dinger mashers
|
| 2:38 |
: Uh Dan, Eric actually picked the A’s to win the whole division, thank you very much
|
| 2:38 |
: I expected the A’s to get a few more stray picks from the staff. If 2012 and 2018 are any indication, the A’s tend to open their window a year earlier than expected
|
| 2:39 |
Dan Szymborski: I just do not like their pitching AT ALL
|
| 2:39 |
: Murakami didn’t strike out!!! WHOOOOOO
|
| 2:41 |
: Peanuts or Cracker Jack?
|
| 2:41 |
Jay Jaffe: I want the peanuts FROM the Cracker Jacks. There are never enough of them!
|
| 2:42 |
: Word.
|
| 2:43 |
: Cop out answers don’t count, you have to pick one
|
| 2:43 |
: Peanuts.
|
| 2:44 |
: I think I ask this every year: which FG writer would throw the fastest in the stadium speed pitch? Slowest?
|
| 2:45 |
Jay Jaffe: I might be the slowest given the state of my right shoulder. Played catch at Doubleday Field in Cooperstown this past weekend and every toss — short toss, that is — was an adventure in new directions.
|
| 2:45 |
: I know I’ve heard Dan mention that he’s got a good arm at some point. Brendan’s got some long levers. I was a pitcher for a long time, but I’ve abused my arm pretty badly.
|
| 2:46 |
Jay Jaffe: Plus my shoulder makes a sound like it’s cracking walnuts. Is that good?
|
| 2:45 |
Dan Szymborski: I could only barely hit 70 when I actually played regularly as a teenager
|
| 2:45 |
: Oh, I thought you said you had a good arm!
|
| 2:46 |
Dan Szymborski: I threw useful slop, but not better than that
|
| 2:46 |
Dan Szymborski: I threw sidearm and had this weird palmball thing
|
| 2:46 |
: Jay, or others….I just bought eagles of death metal tickets, despite knowing zero songs. Do you go to concerts where you don’t really know the band?
|
| 2:47 |
Jay Jaffe: Rarely do I go in cold for a headliner but I’ll try to catch an opening band if I’ve never heard of them but have liked the samples on Bandcamp or YouTube or whatever. Have found lots of stuff I like that way over the years.
|
| 2:47 |
: Cracker Jack is clearly the answer, though the Chicago mix from Garrett is superior to either of them
|
| 2:47 |
: Welcome, friend!
|
| 2:47 |
: Also, did you know that there is such a thing as a Cracker Jack chewy chocolate and peanut butter bar? Because I just found that out and now I want one.
|
| 2:47 |
: Honestly, that sounds great.
|
| 2:47 |
Dan Szymborski: Throwing sidearm, I had this weird changeup grip where I only had the palmball grip on the top half of the ball, and then whipped out out sidearm and gave this knuckle-bally 12-6 curve action
|
| 2:47 |
Dan Szymborski: That would never work against good players
|
| 2:47 |
: “Useful Slop” is a great name for Dan’s next jazz album
|
| 2:48 |
: I’ve seen Eagles of Death Metal, they’re neither the Eagles or Death Metal, but you’ll have a good time!
|
| 2:48 |
Jay Jaffe: I was hoping for Don Henley to cover all of Reign in Blood.
|
| 2:48 |
Dan Szymborski: And playing baseball as a kid was easy in Baltimore because the best athletes all played lacrosse in the summer
|
| 2:48 |
: How soon into the season will bat speed data be meaningful?
|
| 2:48 |
Dan Szymborski: quickly
|
| 2:48 |
: I hit 85mph on a (probably hot) gun when I was 12 going on 13, but shortly after that my brother blew his knee out on a badly maintained little league field and our parents pulled us out of all organized sports. Not that I’m bitter or anything. I could still hit 80 on stadium guns for a while, but I’ve since messed up my shoulder throwing BP for my kid so I’d be lucky to break 45mph. Time is undefeated.
|
| 2:49 |
: Not a question but a statement: for someone who’s a generational level talent (if not possibly a HOFer), the fact that Jacob DeGrom has yet to reach 100 career wins is wild.
|
| 2:49 |
: Will Paul Skenes see the gates of heaven?
|
| 2:50 |
: I guess I would’ve thought that if anybody knew the answer to that question, it would’ve been someone who wrote one of the Gospels.
|
| 2:49 |
David Laurila: On the FG pitching question, I would have been on the short list up until about 10 years ago (at which point I was already north of 50 years old). I pitched in high school and retained arm strength for a good long while. Of course, nothing lasts forever.
|
| 2:50 |
: This reminds me of the game before they made the Ohtani rule where Judge robbed him and homered off of him and he didn’t make it very far at all so they were without a DH
|
| 2:50 |
Jay Jaffe: Had to make it back to my desk for this but I was at that game and wrote about it for FanGraphs in 2021. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ohtani-serves-up-a-dud-in-the-bronx-but-an…
|
| 2:50 |
: ONEIL CRUZ MAKES A CATCH ALERT
|
| 2:50 |
: any of you ever been to one of those Japanese batting centers where they have the pitching minigame with the 9 squares?
|
| 2:50 |
: Sounds fun.
|
| 2:50 |
Dan Szymborski: I have not
|
| 2:50 |
Dan Szymborski: I’ve played it in the Yakuza games though!
|
| 2:51 |
Dan Szymborski: The Shinada baseball storyline in Yakuza 5 was fun. Baseball duels were the best fighting
|
| 2:51 |
: This is a dumb thing, but watching this Orioles orange carpet thing…I’m really wondering how the players decide how fast they’re gonna jog. Do they get self-conscious about it? You don’t want to go too fast and look like a prick, you don’t want to go too slow and do the weird fast-walk thing.
|
| 2:52 |
: I mean really that carpet is very long! Too long, I think.
|
| 2:52 |
Dan Szymborski: Go really weird with it. Start the orange carpet at the water taxi downtown and have them jog up to the stadium
|
| 2:52 |
: In all honesty, how long can Pittsburgh run Cruz out to CF with a team build predicated on dominant SP owning the first 5-7 IP of a game? He could easily be pushed to a corner and Mangum is right there waiting to get Skenes out of that inning with minimal damage.
|
| 2:52 |
: I hear you, but I’m not sure the solution is making him learn another position.
|
| 2:53 |
: Make the orange carpet one of those moving walkways from the airport and have them move incredulously slow
|
| 2:53 |
: Best mascot in the game?
|
| 2:54 |
: This handsome gentleman. 
|
| 2:55 |
Jay Jaffe: Gonna go with my daughter’s favorites, the Brooklyn Cyclones’ Sandy the Seagull and his junior colleague Pee Wee
|
| 2:54 |
Dan Szymborski: make it go all the way up from the airport. YOu can slowly follow the Orioles up I-95 starting 24 hours in advance
|
| 2:54 |
: there’s the Phanatic and then everyone else (non-Appleman category of course)
|
| 2:55 |
: I know this is the chalky answer, but it’s hard to argue with it.
|
| 2:56 |
Jay Jaffe: The Phanatic is great but isn’t even the best mascot in Philadelphia. That honor belongs to Gritty.
|
| 2:55 |
Dan Szymborski: Writers for large publications have told me at winter meetings that they’re jealous how much David feeds us
|
| 2:55 |
: Anybody watching Cubs/Nats? Cavalli seems to be throwing well
|
| 2:56 |
: Raise your hand if you had Cade Cavalli with more k’s than Paul Skenes today… anyone?
|
| 2:56 |
Dan Szymborski: I’ve kinda committeed to the Mets-Pirates game
|
| 2:56 |
: what are they feeding these 17-18 yo pitchers where they’re firing off 102 mph fastballs?
|
| 2:56 |
: Squats.
|
| 2:57 |
David Laurila: With Brandon Lowe coming to the dish, it bears noting that Garrett Jones was the last Pirate to hit two runs on Opening Day. He did so in 2010.
|
| 2:57 |
: Most likely FanGraphs staff to be able to make it on live TV?
|
| 2:58 |
: With all that podcasting experience, it’s got to be Meg.
|
| 2:58 |
: “How could Oneil Cruz’ day get worse?” “He could K and throw the bat away” |
| 3:01 |
: Chris Sale will start opening day multiple times for his third different team. Is there a way to determine if anyone has ever done that?
|
| 3:03 |
Jay Jaffe: Many guys on the upper end of the Opening Day starts leaderboard (see https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/Q6N6V) had the honor for three team (Seaver, Morris, Clemens, Randy Johnson) but I just looked and Bert Blyleven did it for 5 teams: Angels, Cleveland, Pirates, Rangers, Twins. Not sure if that’s a record but it’s pretty wild.
|
| 3:01 |
: I’d encourage everyone in the chat to consume some Cincinnati Opening Day-related content! Growing up in Cincy I assumed every city had a massive opening day celebration, but I now know it’s not really a thing anywhere else (at least not to the level we do it). Which makes me wonder: Why? Why isn’t every home team throwing a massive party in the streets of their city today?
|
| 3:01 |
: now 3/3 on ABS challenges for Quero lol
|
| 3:01 |
: Edgar Quero is 3-for-3 on ABS challenges.
|
| 3:01 |
: Edgar Quero picking up all these extra challenge strikes because he’s a bad framer is going to be a subplot this season
|
| 3:01 |
: Edgar Quero 3-for-3 on catcher’s challenges so far.
|
| 3:01 |
: Quero has already won 3 challenges today
|
| 3:02 |
: Y’all are on it.
|
| 3:02 |
: Does anyone know how Quero has done on challenges so far today?
|
| 3:03 |
: 
|
| 3:03 |
: Whoopie Pie update: Good
|
| 3:04 |
: Further update: I have texted Matt like 15 questions about the texture, flavor, composition, baking technique of the whoopie pie.
|
| 3:05 |
Jay Jaffe: Treat for the next Subway Ghosts show? Would be extra-impressive given the logistics involved.
|
| 3:06 |
: I’m definitely going to make the Mariners moose cookies. I might have to cheat on these, as Matt indicated that it’s likely a cake baked in a mold rather than a cookie with the features stamped into the dough.
|
| 3:04 |
: @Oaktown Blues I hear Quero has won 3 challenges
|
| 3:06 |
: I sure bet he started opening day of both of his Yankee years, so he’d be one. I am also certain Clemens had more than one with the Yankees, and definitely Sox and Jays and probably Astros too.
|
| 3:07 |
Jay Jaffe: You’re right about both. Meanwhile, I found Gaylord Perry with 5 teams as well: Cleveland, Giants, Mariners, Padres, Rangers.
|
| 3:06 |
: Ask him about the mouth feel
|
| 3:06 |
: Mouth feel good
|
| 3:07 |
: He’s a wordsmith.
|
| 3:07 |
: Are we really asking Matt about Mr. Met’s mouthfeel. Is that really a thing we’re doing.
|
| 3:08 |
: Say “Asking Matt about Mr. Met’s mouthfeel” three times fast.
|
| 3:13 |
: That’s a thing you’re all doing. I’m just obliging
|
| 3:08 |
: Acuna deciding to hit righty against the righty Mis is an interesting choice
|
| 3:09 |
: I will never get sick of this joke (for at least another week).
|
| 3:09 |
: Davy, which of your 1%/99% predictions do you most wish will actually happen?
|
| 3:10 |
: I mean, I think Gabriel Arias turning into a great hitter would be truly wild. But it’s got to be the Bratwurst turning into Milwaukee’s MVP.
|
| 3:09 |
: Dan, you have the Natty Bo in the coozie?
|
| 3:09 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m a beer snob so no
|
| 3:09 |
Dan Szymborski: and I drink very little these days because of my stomach
|
| 3:11 |
: Too much beer can turn Useful Slop into Useless Slop
|
| 3:11 |
: Honestly, I am NOT a beer snob, and I still can’t stand Natty Bo.
|
| 3:11 |
Jay Jaffe: I’m not even sure I’ve had a Natty Bo. More due to regional reasons than anything else.
|
| 3:11 |
: James Wood got news of Cruz’s exploits and said “hold my beer.” Cubs draw even at 1 – 1. Cade Cavalli didn’t wax his handlebar mustache for this crap.
|
| 3:12 |
Dan Szymborski: I forget who it was, but one broadcaster last year kept pronouncing Don Kelly so that it came out as “Dank Ellie” and it drove me nuts
|
| 3:15 |
David Laurila: I recall reading that someone who listened to Red Sox games on the radio in the 1980s though Spike Owen’s name was Spy Cohen.
|
| 3:12 |
: Jim Deshaies just claimed that Michael Busch is now batting 2.000 on the season after getting his second hit in as many at-bats. I will quote this to my Cubs fan wife this evening and see if she sees anything wrong with that statement
|
| 3:12 |
David Laurila: Sciambi-Deshaies is a good broadcast duo.
|
| 3:16 |
: Boog could make pretty much any booth solid and Deshaies isn’t bad.
|
| 3:16 |
: I think baseball needs to embrace being the ultimate 2nd screen experience. I have huge open world RPG on one monitor and baseball on the other is peak.
|
| 3:16 |
: Royals are really missing out on an opportunity to serve the Hipolito Pitcher-do, a pitcher of Boulevard Wheat in a collectible pitcher
|
| 3:16 |
: Natty Bo is a cultural thing…but a terrible beer. Jerold Hoffberger owned the National Brewing Company, and he brought the Orioles to Baltimore from St Louis in 1954. Thus, the Natty Bo connection.
|
| 3:17 |
Jay Jaffe: Juan Soto with the bases loaded, good luck with that, Buccos
|
| 3:17 |
: Who’s building Quero’s ABS challenges into the WAR model?
|
| 3:18 |
: Trevor Rogers 1-2-3 1st inning, Cy Young campaign under way
|
| 3:18 |
: These flying shots by NBC are spectacular
|
| 3:18 |
: Juan Soto just tried to hit a baseball to Staten Island
|
| 3:19 |
: Soto with an absolute squibber single with the bases loaded, so much english on that
|
| 3:20 |
: @Jon – Doesn’t Citi Field face towards LI, not Staten Island?
|
| 3:20 |
: Actually, it faces White Plains.
|
| 3:20 |
David Laurila: Daylen Lile had an RBI single for the Nationals to tie their game with the Cubs 2-2 . The kid can hit.
|
| 3:20 |
: Im late, its too nice outside… What happened to Skenes? Please
|
| 3:21 |
: Got shelled in the first inning, and wasn’t helped by Oneil Cruz losing two balls in the sun.
|
| 3:21 |
: If he made contact, that ball was orbiting the Earth and landing on Staten Island
|
| 3:21 |
: booo on comments moderation
|
| 3:21 |
: You are welcome.
|
| 3:21 |
: Contact hitting…that’s the Mets new hitting philosophy…put the ball in play and good things will happen
|
| 3:22 |
: Cool glad for baseball and fans he is not hurt. Thank you!
|
| 3:22 |
: The Mets lost a World Series in 2015 to that exact philosophy
|
| 3:23 |
: Davy, what’s it going to take for us to get a regular chat out of you?
|
| 3:25 |
: I am certainly game. I think the issue is that we have so many chats already. (Also, I’m going to be out for a couple months this season.)
|
| 3:23 |
: If you could invite any former FG writer to join you on today’s chat, who would you invite?
|
| 3:24 |
Dan Szymborski: Peter Bendix because it coudl be fun to pepper him with awkward Marlins questions
|
| 3:24 |
: Pete with a standing ovation from the Baltimore crowd in his first PA. Tips his helmet. That’s rare
|
| 3:24 |
: Need some Dayne Perry/Carson Cistulli in here
|
| 3:24 |
: Them’s fightin words War2D2!
|
| 3:25 |
: Let’s be real, most of Dayne’s words were fightin’ words
|
| 3:26 |
:  Baltimore legend Pete Alonso
|
| 3:26 |
: Tipping the helmet before your first AB and striking out, whoops
|
| 3:26 |
: Pete Alonso is still wearing orange but the O’s uni just looks so wrong on him
|
| 3:26 |
Jay Jaffe: 8 walks by Pirates pitching, and in just 4 2/3 innings, good gravy
|
| 3:26 |
: That won’t get it done Jay
|
| 3:27 |
Jay Jaffe: I can’t believe the NYM-PIT game is even this close
|
| 3:27 |
: They have buffed some easy outs too on defense, beyond just the Cruz first-inning flies.
|
| 3:28 |
:  Laz Díaz first overturned strike call
|
| 3:28 |
David Laurila: Pirates pitchers have combined to throw 150 pitches over four-and-two-thirds innings.
|
| 3:28 |
: And I have felt every single pitch they’ve thrown…
|
| 3:29 |
: Murakami with 2 BBs so far in his 2 PAs
|
| 3:30 |
: Skenes, Webb, Boyd hooked early, now Rogers in trouble. Is there some monster coming for guys who got CYA votes last year?
|
| 3:30 |
Jay Jaffe: It’s on me for writing about these starters
|
| 3:30 |
Jay Jaffe: Hinch might want to have a long man heating up when Skubal takes the mound
|
| 3:31 |
: Jay Jaffe, The Grim Reaper But For Pitchers
|
| 3:32 |
Jay Jaffe: I did write about Yamamoto ahead of Game 6 of the Word Series last year and that turned out OK
|
| 3:32 |
: Keibert Ruiz with his first hit of the season, which I think ties his total from last year.
|
| 3:32 |
: Was really interested to see Murakami face Misiorowski as a test for his ability to hit a good fastball and Mis has decided to throw nowhere near the zone for his ABs
|
| 3:32 |
: Holy, oh my goodness, Jacob Young just hit a homer. This is worth noting.
|
| 3:32 |
: To the opposite field!!
|
| 3:32 |
: jacob Young dinger and the Nats announcers are just laughing…
|
| 3:34 |
Jay Jaffe: He’s halfway to last year’s total!
|
| 3:34 |
: Wind is blowing out to the NE today, was Young’s homer to left field?
|
| 3:36 |
David Laurila: We have five FanGraphers in the chat, and I have a few things to do around the house before the 4:10 games I’m keen on watching start, so my chatting day is done. Happy baseball everyone.
|
| 3:37 |
: Bye, David!
|
| 3:37 |
: Not sure if anyone cleared up the pitchbox discussion. Brewers broadcast cleared it up. Pitchbox not available to anyone in the ballpark but still available for TV viewers outside of the park.
|
| 3:41 |
: Bye David. Thank you for the continued irrational support of the CLE!
|
| 3:41 |
: Cubs fan wife just told me that Matthew Boyd is dead to her, we’re already in midseason form with the fans in my household
|
| 3:41 |
: Sorry, Orioles broadcast just said Tyler O’Neill is “in better shape” and I have some questions
|
| 3:42 |
: About time he hit the gym!
|
| 3:42 |
: can o’neil do it
|
| 3:42 |
: Alright, I’m switching away from Mets-Pirates because the broadcast keeps going on the fritz. Which game should I watch, chat?
|
| 3:42 |
: Rounder is a shape
|
| 3:43 |
Jay Jaffe: Benge with his first major league homer!
|
| 3:43 |
: Dang it.
|
| 3:43 |
: I will be turning on the Ranger’s game
|
| 3:44 |
: The Mets are about to make this “dead bird” in front of Benge their most bizarre gimmick since the hawk tuah girl
|
| 3:45 |
: For reference: https://bsky.app/profile/yayroger.bsky.social/post/3mhyc4dngeo22
|
| 3:45 |
: Holy Alvarez!
|
| 3:46 |
: I got mentioned!
|
| 3:46 |
Jay Jaffe: You’ve now got company among Mets who homered in their first major league games
|
| 3:47 |
: We just got our first Vasgersian “Santa Maria” of the year
|
| 3:47 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m over in O’s Twins now
|
| 3:48 |
Dan Szymborski: wanna see that Trevor Rogers Ace Discourse continue
|
| 3:48 |
: When is Sym’s chat? I want to see all the “It’s Spring!” replies ………
|
| 3:48 |
Dan Szymborski: Thursday! This repalces my chat this week
|
| 3:49 |
: Matt, you can still take your prediction back
|
| 4:00 |
: Which prediction?
|
| 3:49 |
: where’s my boy Matt??
|
| 4:00 |
: Howdy!
|
| 3:49 |
: The state of streaming MLB in 2026 is ridiculous. I subscribe to Marquee, but Google tvs do not support their app. It makes absolutely no sense that I can’t use my Marquee login info to simply bypass the blackout on the MLB TV app
|
| 3:50 |
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, interoperability is still garbage
|
| 3:50 |
: I asked AI to guess at how many games Dan has on currently and it replied. “Dan has 12 different screens all tuned to the BAL game”… Yes I made this up but it is true in my head cannon.
|
| 3:51 |
Dan Szymborski: Only the three!
|
| 3:51 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m only half paying attention to the non O’s-Brewers games
|
| 3:52 |
Dan Szymborski: coby mayo does sound like a horrible condiment
|
| 3:52 |
: I hope they have Oneil Cruz pitch in this game…
|
| 3:54 |
: I have an off the wall question: with McCutchen making the Ranger’s roster: if he has a decent season and they win a championship does his HOF case get closer? I know his JAWS isn’t quite there, but CF is pretty stacked
|
| 3:57 |
Jay Jaffe: McCutchen enters the season with 43.7 JAWS at a position where the average Hall of Famer is at 58.0 — lower than when I checked in last summer (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2025-progress-rep…). Even given the fact that the CF standard is a couple points higher than most other positions, I don’t think it’s gonna matter. Particuarly given his role as a DH, I don’t see his score changing much and adding a World Series ring doesn’t do a whole lot unless he’s one of the centerpieces of the offense.
|
| 4:01 |
: Sorry I disappeared for a minute there. I was answering a mailbag question. Anybody want to guess off the top of their head (no cheating!) who Statcast says was the most valuable player in terms of ABS challenges during spring training? You’ll have to wait until the mailbag on Saturday for the answer.
|
| 4:01 |
: Davy. Def MIL till Miz is out
|
| 4:01 |
: Appreciate it.
|
| 4:02 |
: But Mis is literally out of the game rihgt now, it’s Ashby
|
| 4:02 |
: Mailbag strikes again.
|
| 4:02 |
: I would’ve assumed actually Quero, I’m pretty sure there was an MLB article on it? But maybe I’m hallucinating
|
| 4:03 |
: Its a defensive stat and Bo was at the WBC so I am going with Hedgie!
|
| 4:03 |
: I heard Quero had three ABS victories today so I’ll guess him
|
| 4:03 |
: Yeah, I assume Quero will definitely be at the top of the regular season leaderboard tomorrow!
|
| 4:04 |
: Ben Brown added a 2-seamer in the offseason to bring up his pitch total to 3. He always seems like he’s right on the cusp of turning into something, but then he’s just…this. Think he ever turns into more than an MLB arm with AAAA results?
|
| 4:04 |
: I don’t think I’m done holding out hope.
|
| 4:05 |
: Bell with the hitter lead!
|
| 4:05 |
: Brown throws so hard! And sometimes he’ll mow through three or four guys in a row and just look unstoppable. And then he throws a BP cement-mixer slider that lands a quarter-mile away.
|
| 4:05 |
 Jon Becker: Hello everyone!
|
| 4:06 |
: Jon!
|
| 4:06 |
: Thanks for Join!
|
| 4:06 |
Jay Jaffe: Hey Jon!
|
| 4:06 |
: Jon, is Chicago in the Midwest? Someone in this chat (Dan) says it’s not
|
| 4:06 |
Jon Becker: As far as the Census Bureau and probably everyone besides Dan is concerned, absolutely
|
| 4:06 |
: lol announcer man #1 “who do you think will benefit most from ABS?” Announcer man #2 “Hitters!”
|
| 4:06 |
Dan Szymborski: Caratini sounds like an awful carrot-based cocktail
|
| 4:07 |
Jay Jaffe: Bugs Bunny’s favorite!
|
| 4:07 |
Dan Szymborski: I tihnk Chicago is an east coast city that’s located in the midwest
|
| 4:07 |
Dan Szymborski: but I’m not a native
|
| 4:07 |
Dan Szymborski: only a visitor
|
| 4:07 |
: Man #2 is Jim Palmer….he knows what he’s talking about.
|
| 4:07 |
Dan Szymborski: Milwaukee feels far more midwesty to me than Chicago does
|
| 4:07 |
: Dan, is the Skenes ZiPS ERA projection increase from 2.80 to 3.08 the largest you can remember on opening day (or early season in general)?
|
| 4:07 |
Dan Szymborski: Not usre, certainly one of th elarger!
|
| 4:08 |
Dan Szymborski: I mean it’s pretty much all banked IP/ER
|
| 4:08 |
Jay Jaffe: as the new shift comes in, i’m going to take my leave here. Happy baseball, everyone!
|
| 4:08 |
: Bye Jay!
|
| 4:08 |
: Dan I immediately had an imagined sense memory of a carrot-juice-based martini and now I kind of hate you.
|
| 4:08 |
: Hi Jay! Bye Jay! Hi everyone else
|
| 4:08 |
: Hey Ben!
|
| 4:09 |
: Ben and Jon, anything you’ve enjoyed or noticed from the earlier games?
|
| 4:09 |
Jon Becker: The wind in Chicago is crazy, but then again I noticed that just looking out my window
|
| 4:09 |
: Edgar Quero challenging a ton
|
| 4:10 |
: I love it.
|
| 4:09 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m sorry, but ketchup should not be allowed to participate in hot dog races
|
| 4:10 |
: Dennis Santana is in for the Pirates to pitch the bottom of the eighth of a six-run game because they have run out of pitchers to use.
|
| 4:10 |
: Oneil Cruz’s rough first inning also stands out, but like, in the bad way
|
| 4:11 |
: Hello Dan. How are the cats celebrating Opening Day?
|
| 4:11 |
: Everyone knows Chicago is a coastal city. Lakes have coasts too. And you could get to the ocean entirely by water
|
| 4:11 |
: BASEBALLBASEBALLBASEBALLBASEBALLBASEBALLBASEBALLBASEBALLBASEBALLBASEBALLBASEBALLBASEBALLBASEBALLBASEBALLBASEBALLBASEBALLBASEBALLBASEBALLBASEBALLBASEBALLBASEBALLBASEBALLBASEBALLBASEBALLBASEBALLBASEBALLBASEBALLBASEBALL
|
| 4:12 |
: Chicago is definitely a for-reals city in a way that very few American cities West of Philly are. But culturally it’s the capital of the Midwest.
|
| 4:12 |
: Dan you know nothing about Chicago. It is _the_ midwestern city.
|
| 4:12 |
: Curtis Mead DFA’d. The trade for Cris Sanchez looks pretty pretty pretty good now…
|
| 4:13 |
Jon Becker: Was a little surprised they cut him in favor of Peters, but then again I was surprised when the Rays moved him for a rental, so I probably just need to update my priors on Mead
|
| 4:14 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m definitely in minority wtih Chicago!
|
| 4:14 |
: Chicago is the Midwestern International city. That’s why it doesn’t feel like either. It’s inherently an oxymoron.
|
| 4:14 |
: NESN, is that a permanent new scorebug? I miss the old one already
|
| 4:14 |
: Yeah, I did read that they were going to have a new one this season, so I assume that’s permanent.
|
| 4:16 |
: My first impression is that it is..blocky.
|
| 4:14 |
Dan Szymborski: Cats aren’t doing too much right now. They had dinner
|
| 4:14 |
Dan Szymborski: The kittens want out of their room, but I’m not going to try supervising them while opening day games on
|
| 4:15 |
: It is indeed Adley and not Badly
|
| 4:16 |
: Is Oneil Cruz a DH pretending to know how to play OF?
|
| 4:16 |
Jon Becker: I don’t think he’s that bad, but he is certainly… not good out there
|
| 4:16 |
: To be slightly fair to him, it was a tough wind day
|
| 4:16 |
: Carson Benge was getting some really bad reads out there
|
| 4:17 |
: but yeah, reallllly bad today
|
| 4:18 |
: Based on the few challenges so far, I think the first “challenge revolution” we’re going to see is the first team that tells guys hey, dude, challenge in 0-0 and 1-0 counts, this actually matters, stop challenging impulsively on strike 3s
|
| 4:18 |
: I haven’t done the math, but I do think it’s possible to get too strategic. I’d be really curious what would happen if you told your team not to worry as much about the situation and just only challenge when they really felt sure.
|
| 4:18 |
Dan Szymborski: OK, I’m gonna head out from chat now, cheers, afternoon crew and chatters!
|
| 4:18 |
: Quero missed one.
|
| 4:18 |
: Bye, Dan!
|
| 4:18 |
Jon Becker: Bye Dan!
|
| 4:18 |
: Few guys already have been caught out on strike 3s with failed challenges and lots of bad calls early in counts where guys really want to challenge but don’t pull the trigger
|
| 4:19 |
: How many Bens does the Effectively Wild podcast plan to acquire?
|
| 4:19 |
: Has Pivetta always been this exaggerated over the top?… I know I can check but lazy…
|
| 4:19 |
: yeah, very steep delivery
|
| 4:19 |
: Arm angle of 56 degrees last year, so probably.
|
| 4:19 |
: Didn’t Rutschman hit 2 homers OD last year? Not to be that guy, but it’s so hard to truly trust catcher production until like July, they’re always playing hurt for like 5 months
|
| 4:19 |
: Based on recent chat topics, I feel obligated to bring up Jonah Tong. Thank you for your understanding.
|
| 4:19 |
: You don’t need an excuse to bring up Jonah Tong.
|
| 4:20 |
: I would have to argue that Indianapolis is more THE midwest city than Chicago. The fact that Chicago has a train disqualifies it.
|
| 4:20 |
: Get out of the Loop in Chicago and into the neighborhoods and it doesn’t get more Midwestern.
|
| 4:20 |
Jon Becker: The Loop is fake Chicago, yes
|
| 4:20 |
: I think anyone who has spent any appreciable amount of time in Chicago can at least agree that it’s a hell of a city, regardless of how you classify it.
|
| 4:20 |
: I don’t know if any City can be the capital of the Midwest. I think it has to be a random small town like Norway Iowa.
|
| 4:20 |
: Ya’ll Americans are so funny. Illinois is CLEARLY east of the center of the landmass and yet it’s considered “Midwest”??? by that logic, Arizona is “Mideast”
|
| 4:21 |
: Im in OH and people here think we are in the midwest!
|
| 4:21 |
: Can confirm.
|
| 4:21 |
: Midwest is more a vibe than about geography. Also Atlanta used to be an NL West team.
|
| 4:21 |
: Pivetta is having a rough one early
|
| 4:22 |
: and McGonigle is on the board
|
| 4:22 |
: Oh jeez, I didn’t realize that the advertisement stays on the NESN scorebug for the whole game. It’s nearly as big as some other broadcasts’ entire scorebugs!
|
| 4:22 |
: Since someone brought up Tong…hot take…he’ll close out the Mets game 7 WS win this year
|
| 4:23 |
: None of this Chicago talk matters, we’re all going to be living in hive cities, laboring in the manufactorums for our meager daily rations any day now
|
| 4:23 |
: Five scoreless for Trevor “CY” Rogers
|
| 4:24 |
: Looking sharp early. I mean, he won’t get to play the Twins 33 times, but you can only shut out the batters you face
|
| 4:24 |
: Cutch in a Phillies, Yankees, Brewers, Giants uniform didn’t feel super weird. But now that he’s spent his retirement tour with the Pirates, him with the Rangers now feels very very strange
|
| 4:24 |
: 100%. I was sure he was going to retire after last year. It’s going to feel strange all year
|
| 4:24 |
:  That scorebug ad is obnoxiously large
|
| 4:25 |
: Now the giant ad is gone!
|
| 4:25 |
: New, different kind of giant ad replacing it.
|
| 4:25 |
: Rogers hasn’t been as sharp as last year, but Mayo has picked him up at third. Can’t believe I just typed that…
|
| 4:26 |
: I’ve been hopping around and missed what happened, but that would be a pretty big development. If he can play third, even if he doesn’t hit great he’ll be a big upgrade
|
| 4:27 |
: Man if that thing is up all year like that (the score bug) then there is some serious trolling opportunity vis a vis PNC
|
| 4:27 |
: Devin Williams warming up. It’s not a watch, but maybe one eye open.
|
| 4:27 |
: Ben, he had two beautiful picks to start double plays. Impressive as hell…hope it continues. Not hopefuly on a Westburg return this year.
|
| 4:29 |
Jon Becker: Did not watch a whole lot of Wetherholt in spring training, and goodness is he an aggressive gum-chewer
|
| 4:29 |
Jon Becker: Of secondary importance, working a nice plate appearance
|
| 4:29 |
: Alvarez just challenged and won on the 0-0 pitch. Now up 0-2 in count
|
| 4:29 |
: That’s how you do it.
|
| 4:29 |
: phils wasting no time with Eovaldi
|
| 4:29 |
Jon Becker: Schwarber!
|
| 4:30 |
: Not mentioned in all the discussion of Judge’s golden sombrero was that he got a few high strikes called on him that he could’ve challenged.
|
| 4:30 |
Jon Becker: Coby Mayo steal, he’s really doing everything Westburg does
|
| 4:31 |
: Here’s a question for the people who think you should not worry so much about count and challenge when you’re ‘sure’: how sure?
|
| 4:34 |
: Uh…shut up?
|
| 4:31 |
Jon Becker: I think if you challenge the 3-0 auto strike and lose you’re paying the manager a big fine
|
| 4:31 |
: I think it’s pretty tricky to figure out – and also, that no one is all that sure ever, which is why the early challenges are so tough
|
| 4:31 |
: Pirates score seven with Skenes pitching and lose badly. That isn’t a good omen for the team.
|
| 4:32 |
: With Joe Ryan crusing, Tyler O’niel isn’t going to have too many more chances to go yard
|
| 4:32 |
: Oof, bad sign for Mr. First Day of the Season to not homer on the first day of the season
|
| 4:33 |
: Well, scoring 7 (in a game started by F Peralta) is arguably a good omen, you assume Skenes and most of your other starters will escape the first inning most (150+) times
|
| 4:34 |
: Masyn Winn, cleanup hitter
|
| 4:34 |
: what a weird team
|
| 4:34 |
: Did I read somewhere that there was a change in the way check swings are being called this year?
|
| 4:34 |
: being tested in the minors
|
| 4:37 |
: How soon is too soon to declare victory in a (very deep) fantasy league where I have Joey Wiemer, Andres Chaparro, and Brandon Lowe?
|
| 4:37 |
Jon Becker: about 185 days too soon
|
| 4:37 |
: Nah, stunt on ’em. Joey Wiemer will keep this up.
|
| 4:38 |
: I am really really going to learn to hate “Freebird”
|
| 4:39 |
: People are still chiming in with midwest takes, in case anybody was wondering.
|
| 4:40 |
: Any fun Mideast takes?
|
| 4:41 |
: I lived in Saudi Arabia for a year as a kid. It’s hot. Super hot. You get to go to the beach a lot though.
|
| 4:41 |
: All this talk about optimal challenge strategy just cements my opinion that this system is a silly half measure. If we trust ABS to get the calls right, just let it do all of them
|
| 4:41 |
Jon Becker: My big qualm with this is that I’m not sure I want to watch a game where catchers don’t have to care at all about presenting the pitch
|
| 4:41 |
: 100%. I would hate that.
|
| 4:41 |
: What is your go-to ballpark food/beverage?
|
| 4:41 |
: Chicken tenders and fries.
|
| 4:41 |
Jon Becker: Can’t go wrong with a hot dog, I’m a mustard and onions guy
|
| 4:42 |
: I think the challenge system is gonna do two things: get important calls right, and overturn obviously wrong calls
|
| 4:42 |
: And reduce shouting.
|
| 4:42 |
: those both seem like important things. and it’s pretty cheap in terms of slowing the game down or feeling weird. very good imo
|
| 4:43 |
: Small sample size for me, but I’m not opposed to the challenge system so far.
|
| 4:43 |
: Can we build a baseball academy in Czechia and get the electrician guy to be our pitching coach?
|
| 4:44 |
: That’s electrical technician Ondrej Satoria, and I imagine it might be possible.
|
| 4:45 |
: On that note, go out and buy my friend Michael Clair’s book, We Sacrifice Everything to Baseball. I’m reading it right now and it’s great.
|
| 4:45 |
Jon Becker: Michael Clair, the musician?
|
| 4:45 |
: He’s a renaissance man.
|
| 4:46 |
: What is the interaction between bat weight and bat speed on exit velo? Assuming average on all variables first, now say if I decrease the bat weight by an ounce, how much more bat speed do I need to maintain the same-ish EV?
|
| 4:47 |
: You’ll need to ask this guy.
|
| 4:47 |
Jon Becker: Two errors today for Caminero, those in-season gains last year have not carried over
|
| 4:47 |
Jon Becker: (yet)
|
| 4:47 |
: Davy, I am pretty sure the shouting was half the reason my grandpa watched baseball. That said, I also agree its pretty unobtrusive and will improve the game.
|
| 4:47 |
: We need to get the Czechia-to-MLB pipeline started guys
|
| 4:47 |
: Ben! My wiiiiiife spent her high school years in Qatar. Apparently if you are an ex-pat, you have less rights than the…um Qatarians? Qataronis? So if you got into a car accident with a Qatar-person and it was not your fault, it was still your fault.
|
| 4:47 |
: You’re going to get peppered with Saudi Arabia questions next Monday, Ben.
|
| 4:48 |
: This may be better suited for a mailbox question, but what is the hardest hit ball in the bat tracking era that wasn’t squared up?
|
| 4:48 |
: by definition, probably not that hard. Since it’s 80% of maximum exit velo, and we can kinda guess that maximum exit velo isn’t much more than, at most, 130 (otherwise someone would have hit one harder by now).
|
| 4:50 |
: so like, maybe 100 mph? that’s an 85mph swing at a 100 mph fastball, juuuust below squared up
|
| 4:51 |
: It’s this Oneil Cruz homer! 114.4 mph EV, 84.8 mph bat speed.
|
| 4:51 |
: Unless it didn’t get tagged right?
|
| 4:49 |
: Do Carpenter, Keith, and McGonigle sit against all lefties?
|
| 4:50 |
Jon Becker: Can’t sit all three of them unless they did something weird like Dingler at DH with Rogers catching. My guess is Carpenter pretty much always sits against them and McGonigle gets plenty of chances to show he can hit them
|
| 4:50 |
: Justin Crawford with a groundball single! We’ll be saying that a lot this year.
|
| 4:52 |
: the squared up stuff merits further investigation. but for now, we’ve got baseball to watch
|
| 4:52 |
: Roman Anthony is on pace to lead in times LoB
|
| 4:52 |
: very nice oppo single there though
|
| 4:52 |
: On that note, I’m afraid I’m going to have to leave you all. I have to go pick up my car from the shop.
|
| 4:52 |
Jon Becker: Bye Davy!
|
| 4:53 |
: Goodbye to you, Jon.
|
| 4:53 |
: Please chat well in my absence.
|
| 4:53 |
: Bye Davy!
|
| 4:53 |
: If 114.4 MPH isn’t squared up, that implies that his max EV would be like 143 MPH. Insane
|
| 4:53 |
: Right, I think it was just tagged wrong in Savant, but it was what showed up when I searched.
|
| 4:54 |
: I had thought Brewers 14-1 was a crazy opposite of their last-year opener with the Yanks’ torpedo bats. Unfortunately the real torpedo games were second and third last year, not the opener. Would have been funny for a team to have a +24 run swing between consecutive Opening Day games.
|
| 4:54 |
: What’s baseball?
|
| 4:55 |
: Wow, did not think Davy had the upper body strength to pick up a car.
|
| 4:56 |
: In regards to Bat speed vs ball speed. The best rule I can find is that the smash factor is something like 1.4/1 maybe 1.45 on a perfectly square hit in optimal conditions with a very hard baseball. So a bat speed of 85 should produce max exit velo of 123.25. Which tracks with Oneil Cruz. Super rough approximation and I am not Alan Nathan.
|
| 4:56 |
: ties out closely
|
| 4:56 |
: Ben did you kayak in the cove last night? the broadcast showed almost as many as late-career Barry games
|
| 4:56 |
: I’ve never done it! I want to at least once. Looks like a good time.
|
| 4:56 |
: Sanchez is locked in 😀
|
| 4:57 |
: “Gimme that crown, Logan Webb” -Cris Sanchez, probably
|
| 4:57 |
: McGonigle!!
|
| 4:57 |
Jon Becker: Safe to say Pivetta doesn’t have it today, but also that kid is really really good
|
| 5:01 |
: The most impressed I’ve been with McGonigle so far was when they zoomed in on his forearms
|
| 5:01 |
: Uh oh Topa coming in here comes O’neil’s HR
|
| 5:02 |
: just getting you on the record in case it happens
|
| 5:03 |
Jon Becker: Wetherholt!
|
| 5:03 |
: If you’d like to know how things are going in Milwaukee, the Brewers announcers are showing their shoes on the air.
|
| 5:03 |
Jon Becker: Homer on 0-2 for his first big-league hit
|
| 5:03 |
: let’s gooooooo
|
| 5:03 |
: that’s very exciting
|
| 5:04 |
Jon Becker: Kurt Suzuki just issued an IBB in the third inning
|
| 5:06 |
: So Suzuki is manager of the year? I mean, you can’t script things like 3rd inning IBB.
|
| 5:06 |
: It’s nice to see that no matter the manager, the Angels will do silly IBB. Clearly an organizational philosophy.
|
| 5:07 |
Jon Becker: As the Astros broadcasting is noting, Soriano has been significantly better against LHH in his career, too
|
| 5:08 |
: I don’t hate this IBB that much, honestly. Like, it’s probably not great. But I don’t buy Soriano’s splits for a second. He’s a sinker-dominant righty
|
| 5:09 |
: and first base was open
|
| 5:09 |
: bad? maybe. nowhere near peak TLR though
|
| 5:09 |
: or peak Maddon, or peak RW, or anything
|
| 5:09 |
Jon Becker: Right, it was a 0-0 count at least
|
| 5:09 |
: haha yeah, and it didn’t advance any runners
|
| 5:09 |
: the bar for ‘super bad IBB’ is high considering some of the travesties we’ve seen
|
| 5:09 |
: Follow up on the bat speed ball speed stuff. Is it 80% of the expected energy transfer or 80% of the expected max perfect exit velo? If the latter then .8*85*1.45=~99 ball speed which does not track. Something is wrong here. If energy transfer then there is a ^2 term in there and it would be something like .89*85*1.45=~110 which is still wrong. Dr. Nathan hear my prayer!
|
| 5:10 |
: add in the speed from the pitch
|
| 5:10 |
: do you consider an IBB with a man on 1st, and an IBB with a man on 2nd, effectively the same thing?
|
| 5:10 |
: no?
|
| 5:10 |
Jon Becker: I don’t. The outcome is the same but in the former you’re advancing a runner, creating a forceplay when one already existed, etc
|
| 5:10 |
: the approximation they give on savant is 1.23 * bat speed + .23 * pitch speed at home plate
|
| 5:11 |
: Fair enough I was discounting the KE of the ball as insignificant compared to the bat. That is clearly wrong.
|
| 5:12 |
: yeah I was surprised too. But I guess it’s heavier than you think
|
| 5:12 |
: The Angles organizational philosophy is: be the 3rd best MLB team in Los Angeles.
|
| 5:12 |
: Hunter Brown is looking great
|
| 5:13 |
: Oh Murakami got one
|
| 5:14 |
: great debut for him. Pitch recognition against a firebreathing dragon in Misiorowski, then get the homers against the hittable guys
|
| 5:14 |
: Howdy howdy
|
| 5:15 |
Jon Becker: Hello Eric!
|
| 5:15 |
: Hey Jon
|
| 5:15 |
: Hi Eric
|
| 5:15 |
: Carlos Narvaez just used the ABS on an egregious miss by Dan Iossagna to fan Suarez.
|
| 5:15 |
Jon Becker: Byron Buxton just hit a triple to left field (that he could’ve had standing), if anyone forgot he’s really fast
|
| 5:16 |
: Everyone is going yard! Except Judge and Woods.
|
| 5:16 |
: Got back from Cubs backfields like a half hour ago, threw on Phils/Rangers and Padres/Tigers
|
| 5:18 |
: McGonigle and Wetherholt both with opening day dingers. Eric do you root for these guys or do you have to maintain detachment?
|
| 5:18 |
: I’m rooting for myself to be accurate, but I tend to like the guys who outperform my projections.
|
| 5:19 |
: Don’t think I have ever seen a 1B got hurt on a LD before (Roman just smoked it 110 off Stewart’s forearm)
|
| 5:22 |
: I don’t care what the analytics say about Andrew Abbott, he can pitch his baseball.
|
| 5:22 |
: He can. Also, the analytics like him! The yhad him as better than Freddy Peralta last year, and about as good as Dylan Cease (PitchingBot ERA, I didn’t look at all of them)
|
| 5:23 |
: What happens on the backfields between opening day and the AZ complex league? have the other levels of minor leaguers not left yet?
|
| 5:23 |
: Triple-A has broken camp but Double-A thru Low-A has not. Today I watched the lower level Cubs and A’s face off while some Cubs rehabbers did live BP on a third field.
|
| 5:23 |
: Teams have split start times this week. Usual is 1pm. Heat has some teams move to 10-11am starts, while others moved to 6pm.
|
| 5:24 |
: So I could do LAA/COL tonight, three simultaneous games, or TEX/KC
|
| 5:25 |
: Wow, spectacular catch at the wall by Nathan Church. Not something I expected to see today.
|
| 5:25 |
Jon Becker: Helluva catch by Nathan Church, not sure it would’ve been a homer but darn close
|
| 5:25 |
Jon Becker: At minimum hits the very top of the wall
|
| 5:25 |
: I know he’s good defensively but I just have my eyes locked on Scott out there
|
| 5:25 |
Jon Becker: Well, not gonna rob that one
|
| 5:26 |
Jon Becker: If Aranda can hit lefties even a little bit that’s a great player
|
| 5:26 |
: But Church couldn’t catch Aranda’s
|
| 5:28 |
: It’s exciting seeing Junior Caminero improve his pitch recognition, he looks pretty sharp right now
|
| 5:29 |
: DINGLER DONG
|
| 5:29 |
: Dillon Dingler is both an amazing baseball name and a mildly pornographic name.
|
| 5:29 |
Jon Becker: Helsley’s velo was down a little bit in spring (as it often is) but he just pumped 102, so no concern there
|
| 5:30 |
Jon Becker: Moncada almost lost a (fairly high, chopping) ground ball in the lights, I’ve never seen that before
|
| 5:30 |
: Eric, have you seen the new NESN scorebug?
|
| 5:31 |
: Nah I have the Reds broadcast on, gimem a sec
|
| 5:31 |
: Wow, the least efficient use of space possible
|
| 5:32 |
: Andrew Abbott’s stride looks shorter and more cross bodied
|
| 5:32 |
: Justin Crawford, his second ground ball single of the day. Is speedy groundballers the new inefficiency?
|
| 5:33 |
: big Schwarber v Eovaldi atbat with no outs and two guys on
|
| 5:34 |
: Honestly I don’t like sounding like a downer but defenses are getting better and smarter, I think the efficiency play will move steadily towards non-BIP results. I do hope I’m wrong about that.
|
| 5:35 |
Jon Becker: Jared Diamond had a really good article in the WSJ the other day about fewer and fewer doubles, it’s just harder to find a gap
|
| 5:35 |
Jon Becker: I do think infield grounders from speedsters can be tough to defend against though, especially with the shift ban
|
| 5:35 |
Jon Becker: “Limitations,” sorry
|
| 5:36 |
: Way more doubles down the lines now than in the gaps, I’d wager
|
| 5:37 |
: excited for like 170ish more days of my outlook on life largely being determined by how my team did that day
|
| 5:37 |
: As a kid I’d avoid sportscenter when the phils lost
|
| 5:37 |
: Tomo ohka six shutout innings? No thanks
|
| 5:38 |
: Some pitching staffs seem to be collecting guys who throw from different angles- could a lineup exhaust the defense into mistakes by having a variety of arraez to murakami to crawford types?
|
| 5:39 |
Jon Becker: That is a super interesting thought experiment that I don’t want to give a gut answer to, but I think the “defense” also including “pitching” here makes me think the answer is yes
|
| 5:39 |
: Well that’s why you have Bohm in that spot, to pick up your weaker bats like Schwarber and Harper
|
| 5:41 |
: After a year rambling blindly through the tall grass, it seems Helsley might be back. Looked nasty and commanded the slider today against the Twinkies.
|
| 5:42 |
: slider command is big for him. Last year might have been partially pitch tipping, but it was partially that he would go long stretches not trusting one of his two pitches
|
| 5:42 |
: but no question on the stuff, still
|
| 5:42 |
: It was really just the two months for Helsley wasn’t it? He was fine with the Cardinals, just came to the Mets and completely imploded
|
| 5:42 |
: he was down on the cards, but not big down
|
| 5:44 |
: What is James Fegan’s role at Fangraphs? Is he a former scout like the other prospect dudes? It’s cool when fans get to chat with the person who sourced and wrote up their system, but it doesn’t seem like that is something he’s ever done at fangraphs.
|
| 5:44 |
: James is a full time white sox beat writer for Sox Machine and plays a limited tole as our prospect contributor here. His background is in journalism.
|
| 5:45 |
: Eric! I was at a Cubs game last Saturday, and Ty Southesene and Eli Lovich both made it in. They didn’t do anything, but I looked them up and both were over-slot guys (Southesene especially). Have you gotten eyes on them? Anything there or just org filler?
|
| 5:45 |
: Southisene has had a good spring. Looks stronger. Made a nice play at shortstop today. Speedy middle infielder with doubles pop. Lovich is the bigger, more projectable body, slower bat, has kinda plateaued since signing. Armas, Hartshorn, Snell are the three arrow up bats from Cubs this spring imo.
|
| 5:48 |
: can’t say i love having narvaez sac bunting here
|
| 5:48 |
Jon Becker: Yeah I am not a huge fan of bunting when a runner is already in scoring position
|
| 5:49 |
Jon Becker: Not a huge fan of bunting in general, but if Mayer had singled I’d get it more
|
| 5:49 |
: I wanna start writing about baseball. Do you have any suggestions for areas that are undercovered or ways to help break in?
|
| 5:49 |
: I’d stary by keeping things small and specific. Go to local college and minor league games, get to know some of the folks who are part of or around those programs.
|
| 5:49 |
: I don’t have a question. I’d just like to say everyone who is on this chat is an absolute baseball sicko, and I respect it.
|
| 5:50 |
Jon Becker: I am so devoted to the chat that I am about to multitask chatting, watching, and cooking dinner
|
| 5:50 |
Jon Becker: Salmon and broccolini, for those wondering
|
| 5:50 |
: i love rafaela but he’s not my favorite “just get the ball to the outfield” hitter
|
| 5:50 |
: i take it back! cora’s a genius
|
| 5:50 |
Jon Becker: Cristopher Sánchez, good pitcher
|
| 5:51 |
: I love the no no no no yes energy
|
| 5:52 |
: Are the Rays going to take the training wheels off Rasmussen this year?
|
| 5:52 |
: just imagining little training wheels surgically inserted in his elbow. “Internal Brace” procedure.
|
| 5:53 |
: Crochet is at 80 pitches, does he come out again?
|
| 5:54 |
: I think so given that he hasn’t been overly stressed today
|
| 5:55 |
: I’m peeking at our staff predictions for the first time
|
| 5:55 |
: Junior Caminero walked for the 3rd time today. With Williamson currently behind him, I expect a lot more of this and wonder if he can remain patient or will start getting frustrated. He’s so young but also such an advanced hitter for his age.
|
| 5:56 |
: we’ve repeatedly found that lineup protection isn’t real. That said, Junior Caminero is going to keep seeing a lot of balls because he’s one of the best power hitters in baseball and seeing him realize that just because he has elite bat-to-ball doesn’t mean he has to swing is really impresisve
|
| 5:57 |
: if I’m a Rays fan, I’m really excited about how it seems like he just keeps getting better, and at diverse things too
|
| 5:57 |
: Certainly feels like the Yankees are underestimated on the predictions post
|
| 5:58 |
:  Pretty even.
|
| 5:58 |
: Cole looked good yesterday fwiw. Weather more mixed, messier.
|
| 5:58 |
: First time I’d seen Cole in person since Fall League
|
| 5:59 |
: Crochet is out indeed. I suppose like you said, the sixth was a lot of work
|
| 6:01 |
: I mean it kind of depends on what you’re predicting for. Sure the Yankees are probably somewhat underrated, but whether it’s fair or not it’s not very fun to pick the Yankees. If any of the NL West teams were competent I’m sure they’d get a smattering of votes
|
| 6:05 |
: Ben – I thought someone here said that lineup protection isn’t real for as a whole, however, it can be useful in small samples. Example, you’re not going to put Joey Bag O’Donuts after Judge instead of Ben Rice.
|
| 6:05 |
: I’m not quite sure what to make of that. But I guess my point is that it’s not affecting my evaluation of Caminero. Which is: he’s good!
|
| 6:07 |
: I think a general rule is that you have to pitch to guys more when there are men on base, or good hitters after them. So the better your team, the better pitches you get? But I dno’t think it necessarily flows one way or the other more
|
| 6:06 |
: 13 singles so far today for the Rays, 14 total hits.
|
| 6:06 |
Jon Becker: And many of them hit pretty poorly, too
|
| 6:07 |
Jon Becker: Nico Hoerner has a six-year deal with the Cubs, per Michael Cerami of Bleacher Nation and confirmed by ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. Unclear as of now if it starts this year or next. Was going to be a free agent after the season
|
| 6:08 |
: You know, I mostly like checking reddit or other team boards and their respective game threads. It’s good to hear what others are thinking. At the same time, they are often toxic in different ways. You have to sort through crap to hear thoughtful remarks. Of course, this is different. Folks are providing their thoughts or questions, while knowledgeable people that we pay money to are answering questions, staying away from toxicity and keeping a chat going. Has it ever been discussed that doing this more and/or hiring staff to do this thoughtfully would be a plus to the site and would be a reason folks would continue subscribing, potentially adding subscribers? I know folks work hard, which is why maybe more staff is needed, or could current staff also stop in once/week. I just think this is a good thing and if I’m following baseball, watching multiple games or maybe just my favorite team, this would be the place I’d like to chat about it.
|
| 6:08 |
: Noted, my chats are Fridays at 9 am PT. It’s rarely during live big league games save for the occasional cubs game. We did more live hangout stuff during covid. I’m open to evening chats during certain times of year.
|
| 6:09 |
: But yeah, replacing social media as the place to discuss thing in real time would be cool, though if it gets big enough the toxicity part of it probably creeps in whether you want it to or not. We get to chose what questions pop into the chat, so you get a curated experience, but we don’t always.
|
| 6:09 |
: Eric, curious if you had a chance to see Breyson Guedez in the spring? For a guy who makes a lot of contact, I’ve been impressed with his EVs
|
| 6:10 |
: I love him. I’m going to stuff him. Looks like a late first round high schooler to me. Have him ahead of Montero pretty comfortably.
|
| 6:10 |
: I saw Jump yesterday (shoved, he’s gonna be up fast) and Lin today (mixed)
|
| 6:09 |
: Yeah. I’d chime in to say that we actually have staff chatting a LOT. Nine regularly scheduled weekly chats
|
| 6:09 |
: So like, this is kind of already happening
|
| 6:10 |
: We all had Soriano outpitching Brown today, right? 😀
|
| 6:10 |
: Fun game, I am ready for the Jose Soriano All Star year
|
| 6:11 |
: Me too, remember that guy kicked around via the rule 5, seemed toast, and now is this
|
| 6:13 |
: Absolutely 100% behind jd’s comment. The chats are the best part of an already great site. There are no trolls here and the interaction between knowledgeable people, on both sides is terrific. More chats please, even once a month.
|
| 6:13 |
: And because I’m not on socials anymore, if you wanna talk this is the only place to do it.
|
| 6:14 |
: I love Mike Trout
|
| 6:14 |
: The only man who could take the MVP back from Judge, Mike Trout
|
| 6:14 |
: Respectfully Ben, it’s not happening. I sincerely appreciate the chats but those are rarely if ever in real time with games. Those chats have a much different, and again great but different, feel than what this is.
|
| 6:15 |
: Oh, I see what you’re saying. Well, then probably not that likely. Like I said, we’re already chatting a lot. Maybe we could replace those? But I think I speak for a lot of us when I say that we’re chatting as much as we can already.
|
| 6:14 |
: Dying for Trout to be a Phillie
|
| 6:15 |
: We can talk about Hank Fraley and the relative humidity. Best friends forever.
|
| 6:15 |
: Re: Yankees “underestimated”. What exactly do they have that’s better than the Red Sox or Blue Jays? Seems there is an inherent expectation that doesn’t meet the reality of their lineup, rotation or bullpen in comparison to the others.
|
| 6:16 |
: I mean, they have the highest Vegas line in the ALE, it’s not crazy to say that objectively you’d expect them to have the most votes. But I agree, the point of the game is not really to pick every most likely outcome
|
| 6:17 |
: A’s who were arrow up for me this spring are Guedez, Bolte, Kade Morris, Fien
|
| 6:17 |
: as for myself, I thought it’d be fun to pick a Blue Jays/Dodgers rematch with the Jays winning, and kinda worked backwards from there
|
| 6:19 |
: Meg and I will huddle and decide if we need to pick a team or player here or there to cover our collective butts. Like for a couple years we alternated picking Jose Ramirez as AL MVP because it felt wrong for none of us to pick him, he’s always in the mix.
|
| 6:21 |
: Jon – any idea what the value was on the Hoerner deal? What wpild
|
| 6:22 |
Jon Becker: Depends on if it starts this year or next but something like $108M for the six years feels directionally correct, especially if it overwrites this year. He’s got a weird profile that’s always gotten undervalued
|
| 6:21 |
: This TBR-STL game is getting ridiculous
|
| 6:22 |
: extreme ‘well that escalated quickly’ energy there
|
| 6:22 |
: Tastykake being the mound sponsor in Philly warms (and clogs) my heart.
|
| 6:22 |
: Btw, I agree that you guys do a ton of chats. The frequency has gone up in the past couple years too. I really appreciate them, even if they’re a nightmare for my work productivity
|
| 6:22 |
: Just my two cents, but I don’t think it’s a good idea to do game chats unless it’s major events like OD/last day, the big DS day, etc. Even during something like this you can see the games themselves pulling sometimes in an opposite direction from the conversation…it’s nice but kind of muddling. Live reactions are nice but they’re a lower form than analysis, which is what I think this site tends to be for. And they demand much more from writers and can steal takeaways from the actual writing
|
| 6:22 |
: the Reds/Red Sox game is excellent, meanwhile
|
| 6:23 |
: Stewie looks lighter
|
| 6:23 |
: Christian Walker ringing double off hard-throwing enigma Walbert Urena
|
| 6:24 |
: I’m very excited to hear Barry Larkin on Eugenio Suarez this year. Larkin is such a ‘choke up and try to swinging bunt for a hit’ guy but he also surely loves Suarez for coming back
|
| 6:24 |
: Whitlock vs Suarez, again
|
| 6:24 |
: Broadcast said Stewart lost like 20lbs over the winter
|
| 6:25 |
Jon Becker: Angels using Walbert up a run in the seventh
|
| 6:25 |
Jon Becker: Alrighty then
|
| 6:26 |
: With Hoerner getting the bag and Brendan Donovan getting traded, who is the new infielder who is constantly in tradebait discussions?
|
| 6:26 |
: CJ Abrams
|
| 6:27 |
: he was kinda co-featured with those guys already, so he’ll just get a bump now. Isaac Paredes, perhaps, if the Astros decide they don’t want injury insurance
|
| 6:29 |
: Burleson CRUSHED a 2 strike heater from Jax
|
| 6:30 |
: Rays – Cardinals 6th inning will be the craziest inning of the season for a little while
|
| 6:30 |
: Which blockage is worse? The Astros situation with Paredes or the Red Sox with 4 outfielders and Yoshida?
|
| 6:31 |
: the Houston one feels worse to me b/c of their greater holes on the rest of the roster. Like with Boston, yeah they have too many outfielders, but it’s depth, and they don’t have too many holes anyway. With the Astros, they could REALLY use an outfielder and a starter
|
| 6:31 |
: im laughing so hard, my fantasy opponent sat Mike Trout in favour of Belli (Not even playing today)
|
| 6:31 |
:  my squad
|
| 6:31 |
: 
|
| 6:31 |
: Robert looked really good today
|
| 6:32 |
: He was my last pick
|
| 6:32 |
Jon Becker: I’m gonna tap out to eat dinner, might pop back in if people are still chatting in 20ish!
|
| 6:35 |
: cya later, Jon
|
| 6:32 |
: Roman Anthony showing that he understands the challenge system there
|
| 6:32 |
: 3-2 in the ninth? challenge!
|
| 6:33 |
: whether or not you think it was a strike, no cost in getting it right
|
| 6:33 |
: Your 1st Phillies ABS trivia answer: Zach Pop challenged and lost on a ball call
|
| 6:34 |
: Tbf to him it missed by 0.1
|
| 6:35 |
: Jacob Young oppo homer, are the 2019 balls back?
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| 6:35 |
: good news for Jon’s prediction that Chandler Simpson will hit an out-of-the-park homer this year
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| 6:37 |
: Griffin Jax is Shroedinger’s reliever to me. His peripherals are elite but every time I look, he’s melting down.
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| 6:37 |
: I feel similarly. I tihnk it’s small sample size for sure but I can remember a lot of Jax blowups for how good he is
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| 6:37 |
: The photon of light changing how it behaves depending on whether it’s being observed.
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| 6:39 |
: Why do people record on their phones at the games when they’re all televised at better angles/audio?
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| 6:40 |
: I have always wondered this. It’s not just games, it’s concerts, real life events in general
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| 6:40 |
: I am almost never going to watch my cell phone camera quality video, but I’m 100% going to have more fun if I stay present
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| 6:41 |
: I just don’t get it. And like, I am on my phone a lot. Too much. But at a baseball game? there’s baseball going on!
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| 6:41 |
: I’ve gotta go pick up the kids from school. Thanks all for the chat!
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| 6:41 |
: great talking to you too
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| 6:42 |
: I’m also not an event recorder, but I’ve heard people say that having a recording from their exact perspective helps them relive their experience and remember what it was like in the moment to be there
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| 6:43 |
: fair enough. everyone experiences the world differently. that one always felt weird to me, though. being present feels so nice. and you pay so much to be present in these places where evreyone wants to be
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| 6:43 |
: holy wow: Crawford is the youngest Phillies position player to debut on OD since Richie Ashburn in 1948
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| 6:44 |
: I feel like teams haven’t been challenging as much as I thought they would. Lot of incorrect calls standing because guys won’t challenge.
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| 6:44 |
: I’d argue it’s because they don’t know if the call’s right or wrong. One thing that’s pretty clear so far is that success rates are lower than you’d expect if they’re seeing this like a perfect yes/no decision
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| 6:45 |
: they’re like…. that fastball was tough…. I was trying to lay off…. i think it was low…. was it inside?…
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| 6:45 |
: like, lots of correct calls not burning a challenge, too
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| 6:45 |
: Will fear of being a bad teammate by using up challenges scare hitters off of being as aggressive as they should?
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| 6:45 |
: No, it’ll keep them from being too aggressive, imo
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| 6:46 |
: I guess we’ll see when we get a few weeks worth of data
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| 6:46 |
: I think there are going to be some dummies who can’t help themselves but challenge in low levereage spots
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| 6:46 |
: But it seems REALLY hard to be right at a high clip
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| 6:47 |
: I’m with Eric on that. But the evidence says that guys are more certain than they are correct. So probably yeah, you’ll see some bad ones. But I’m pretty sure that the strategy teams will preach is wait for it to matter, unless you’re incredibly sure
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| 6:47 |
: The Anthony call changed the game. My only complaint with the system is that it doesn’t allow more challenges. Maybe something like one every 3 innings which can then be used later if not used.
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| 6:48 |
: I’m sure they’ll keep adjusting it. I have no idea how it’s gonna play out yet but so far so good
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| 6:48 |
: I don’t think McGonigle will be batting 6th for long
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| 6:48 |
: safe to say
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| 6:49 |
: If the goal is just to score/prevent as many runs as possible, why are later innings more valuable for challenges? Shouldn’t it just be based on the base/out situation?
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| 6:49 |
: because being wrong costs you less future EV
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| 6:50 |
: or at least, the way I’m seeing it is that the cost of an early challenge being incorrect compounds because there are many possible future situations
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| 6:50 |
: whereas the closer you get to the end of the game, the more it’s just the challenge in front of you that matters
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| 6:50 |
: I will say it’s pouring cold water on the idea that framing would disappear overnight
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| 6:50 |
: oh 100%. And I think that people who watched it in the minors were telling us this
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| 6:51 |
: So it’s safe to conclude that Murakami is a star and the White Sox are simply better than the rest of of MLB at scouting slugging international first basemen with contact rate concerns, right?
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| 6:51 |
: Right!
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| 6:51 |
: ez! let’s move on 🙂
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| 6:51 |
: Worth the risk from their standpoint, imo.
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| 6:51 |
: I loved the deal for them. And I think I’m higher on him than consensus, though I can’t put my finger on why
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| 6:52 |
: but like…. what did they have to lose at this price?
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| 6:53 |
: Wow, Nolan Schanuel showing off a little power
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| 6:56 |
: wow, and Alec Burleson showing off a little glove
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| 6:57 |
: It’s been a good day for the baby Cardinals. Forget how many games they win this year, they seem fun
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| 6:58 |
: Maybe it’s just the fun game today, but am I crazy for thinking the Cards might be pretty frisky this year? Pitching is uninspiring but if wouldn’t take much to make this a pretty interesting lineup
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| 6:59 |
: I mean, the pitching’s bad. The hitting could be good. I think the floor is higher than people are giving them credit for
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| 6:59 |
: Eric, any chance you have a scoop on why Yunior Tur didn’t pitch at all this spring? Is he hurt?
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| 6:59 |
: Saw him twice on the backfields, looked fine. Ideal build, big velo, big vertical mvmt, below average breaking stuff.
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| 7:01 |
: Don’t know why they decided not to do him in a big league game at all
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| 7:02 |
: Alright guys, it’s been fun watching this batch of games with everyone, but I’m gonna head out. We’ve got baseball news to cover, and I also need to eat a little food before I sit back down for another three hours on the couch
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| 7:02 |
: By Ben!
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| 7:02 |
: hope you had as much fun watching opening day as I did. Gonna be a great year
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| 7:02 |
: cya Eric
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| 7:02 |
: I am hearing from HQ that we should end the chat at the conclusion of Cardinals/Rays
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| 7:03 |
: Even though i’m properly excited for the Major League season, as a Twins fan who lives in St Paul I am VERY excited about watching the prospects in AAA. This is probably a mailbag question for the prospect guys, but would love a top 10ish ranking of most exciting minor league rosters to watch this season (at least to start, obviously there will be movement).
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| 7:04 |
: Fresno, Biloxi, Arkansas…
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| 7:05 |
: Josuar and Luis Hernandez might both be on the same roster in short order. Josuar had a hammy tweak last week
|
| 7:05 |
: Do we now have to admit that Trevor Rogers is just a legitimately great pitcher at this point?
|
| 7:05 |
: I think it’s fascinating that Miami has semed good at developing arms but couldn’t coax this out of him.
|
| 7:05 |
: Like this is a huge gap in where he was at
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| 7:07 |
: I just got home from work–have been people been having as much trouble keeping track of the rules all day as Gomez is having right now?
|
| 7:08 |
: Coasting here.
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| 7:08 |
: I have Mariners over Dodgers in the WS. I don’t have my Rangers making it unfortunately.
|
| 7:09 |
: I just went bac to the start of the chat and saw people reacting to Oneil
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| 7:09 |
: Just for what it’s worth as someone who watched a lot of the Marlins…his first year he had a bereavement leave and after that he became something of a headcase, not in a like bad dude way but the body language was often notably poor. Anecdotally it seemed like he just always was due for a total meltdown inning specifically, not that he was like completely lost. There was a profile in Baltimore about improving not just lower half but also mental state/confidence. I think he needed a change of scenery
|
| 7:10 |
: Makes sense, I remember talk about this kind of thing right after he was drafted, struggled fitting in with teammates, missed the gf, stuff like that.
|
| 7:10 |
: Pretty natural progression for some of us. The best was Jhoan Duran asking to be demoted from the northwest league to see his gf.
|
| 7:11 |
: You are offered the ability to watch all games for the rest of your life BUT the commentators for all the games consist of a 3 person panel of only Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, and whoever is your oldest relative who doesn’t watch baseball. Do you take it?
|
| 7:11 |
: Nah, I’m already packing in basically all the games I can handle.
|
| 7:13 |
: I’d be more open to the reverse, which is capping what I can watch but ensuring I don’t hear Smoltz. That Smoltz’s voice runs through an AI filter that makes him sound like Whitey Ashburn or something
|
| 7:13 |
: Ryen Stanek with the first save opportunity for St. Louis this year
|
| 7:14 |
: I don’t think I’ve ever seen someone blend their eye black into their beard like Yandy does
|
| 7:15 |
: Mascara as a beard darkener is a great hack for certain halloween costumes
|
| 7:15 |
: See that spring training homer gave Simpson a taste for the launch angle revolution. Uh oh
|
| 7:16 |
: enormous walk allowing cami to hit
|
| 7:17 |
: Gotta handle him with care, I’m going first pitch split
|
| 7:18 |
: Crazy how the spot on deck here is Palacios (Williamson starting). Like jeez
|
| 7:19 |
: Caminero has seen 30 pitches and counting this game
|
| 7:20 |
: Zero fastballs
|
| 7:20 |
: What is Webull? Is it a propaganda company?
|
| 7:21 |
: Former Cardinals legend Richie Palacios up to bat
|
| 7:21 |
: And Stanek an ex Ray
|
| 7:21 |
: the original Opener, right?
|
| 7:22 |
: Just as everyone predicted coming into the year, Junior Caminero now has a Soto-level of plate discipline. This is a totally sustainable walk rate and exactly what I expect him to do the remainder of the season
|
| 7:22 |
: Been a 6% walk rate guy forever, I’d still bet that’s what he is
|
| 7:22 |
: sarcasm doesn’t often translate but i feel it there
|
| 7:22 |
: All while Chaim Bloom tries to get his first win as GM
|
| 7:23 |
: Thanks for coming to the Opening Day chat. That was great. Enjoy the nightcaps.
|
| 7:23 |
: See you guys
|
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
My position is clear when it comes to starting pitcher usage. I will acknowledge that it is early in the season but I would think that top of the rotation pitchers could throw more than 80 pitches in their first start. I will also admit to having an irrational lack of respect for middle relievers but today’s Cardinals-Rays game was enough support for my position to last me all season. After the 5th the score was 1-1 and the pitch count of both starters, Liberatore for the Cards and Rasmussen for the Rays, was in the 70’s. Despite both starters pitching very well, each was replaced by a dreaded “middle reliever” and when the 6th finally ended the score was 9-7. The 6th should always belong to a #1 or #2 starter who is cruising and after that he should be allowed to put at least one man on, or more if the score is one-sided, assuming the pitch count is reasonable. Excessive bullpen usage is a by-product of poor strategy in the use of the starting staff. Bullpen arms aren’t as fungible as some think and there is a clear shortage when re-retreads such as Jordan Hicks and, the much traveled, Yohan Ramirez (4 teams in 2024) are used in game 1 of the season.