Cooperstown Notebook: The 2025 Progress Report, Part III

For a good chunk of this season, a third MVP award for Aaron Judge looked inevitable. As late as May 21, he still had a batting average above .400 (.402/.491/.755, good for a 236 wRC+). As late as July 25, he had played every game and was on pace for 58 homers. And as late as August 6, he still had a slugging percentage above .700 (.339/.446/.702).

Unfortunately, a right flexor strain suffered while attempting to throw a runner out at the plate on July 22 sent Judge to the injured list a few day later. While he spent only the minimum 10 days on the IL, his bat cooled off, and now he’s neck-and-neck with Cal Raleigh in the AL MVP race. But even if he doesn’t win, the 33-year-old Judge has done something very impressive. In just his 10th major league season, he’s surpassed the JAWS standard for right fielders, which is to say that he’s got a higher score (58.5) than the average enshrinee at the position (56.0).

With that distinction, Judge joins Mike Trout and Mookie Betts among active players to reach the JAWS standard at their positions by the time they fulfilled the Hall of Fame’s 10-year eligibility requirement (playing in parts of 10 seasons, not accruing 10 years of service time). That’s the province of legends; among position players whose careers crossed into the 21st century, the only others to attain that distinction are Jeff Bagwell, Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Rickey Henderson, Mike Piazza, Albert Pujols, Cal Ripken Jr., and Alex Rodriguez. That makes Judge an apt choice to lead off the third and final installment of this year’s annual Hall of Fame progress series (pitchers and catchers are here, infielders here). Note that unless otherwise indicated, all WAR figures within refer to the Baseball Reference version, and all statistics are through September 1.

Last year, while hitting 58 homers, Judge matched his career high 10.8 WAR, set in 2022, the year he hit 62 homers to break Roger Maris‘ long-standing AL home run record. He entered the season with 52.6 career WAR and 51.8 peak WAR (best seven seasons) for a JAWS of 52.2, good for 18th among right fielders, nestled between Dwight Evans (52.3) and Ichiro Suzuki (51.8). Thanks to his hot start, he didn’t take long to surpass his 4.6 WAR from 2023, his seventh-best season, and so he’s been improving that peak score for months now; with 54.6 WAR in those seven seasons, he’s fifth among right fielders, having just surpassed Roberto Clemente (54.5), with Betts (55.6) in sight before season’s end. If he matches his ZiPS rest-of-season projection of 1.2 WAR, he’ll surpass Shoeless Joe Jackson (57.4) and Sam Crawford (57.5) to move to 13th in JAWS.

What’s remarkable about Judge reaching the JAWS standard before the end of year 10 is that his major league career got the latest start of any of those 21st-century predecessors. He was 24 when he debuted; Bagwell was 22 (early in his age-23 season), while the other players noted above were in their age-18 to age-21 seasons when they reached the majors. Judge is still short in traditional counting stats (1,175 hits, 358 homers), but with his awards and a ton of black ink (including three home run crowns and, possibly, a slash-stat Triple Crown), he’s already at 147 on the Hall of Fame Monitor, a Bill James creation that dishes out credit for things that have tended to sway Hall voters: seasons or careers at .300, awards, league leads in key stats, playoff appearances, and so on. A score of 100 is “a good possibility,” while one of 130 is “a virtual cinch.”

Left Fielders

With apologies to Kyle Schwarber (19.6/19.0/19.3) and his chances of reaching 500 homers (he has 333), there aren’t any active left fielders who appear to be on a Hall of Fame track based on WAR and JAWS. Christian Yelich is the active leader in both categories, but he ranks just 35th at the position in the latter and has totaled less WAR since the start of 2020 (13.3) than he did in ’18–19 alone (14.5). During that two-year stretch, he clubbed 80 homers and led the NL in batting average, slugging percentage, and wRC+ in both years, winning NL MVP in the former and placing second in the latter. At that point, he was 27 years old and figured to improve his 31.8 JAWS quickly given how top-heavy his career had been, but between the pandemic and recurrent lower back woes, he has rarely approached that level, slugging just .429 over the past six seasons while maxing out at 3.5 WAR in 2023. He’s at 3.3 WAR now while hitting .268/.350/.464 (127 wRC+) in 132 games, but at 33 years old, and with just three All-Star appearances and 231 homers under his belt, time isn’t on his side.

Center Fielders

After playing just 82 games in 2023 due to a left hamate fracture and just 29 last year due to recurrent tears of the meniscus in his left knee, Trout has played in 108 games this year while making just one IL trip, for a left knee contusion that cost him most of May. He’s been productive, if far less so than in his heyday, hitting .231/.361/.425 (116 wRC+) with 20 homers while mostly serving as a DH with a bit of time in right field; he hasn’t played an inning in center, and probably won’t again unless it’s an emergency. Trout has been a bit shortchanged based on his expected stats, but he’s got bigger problems. He’s struggling mightily against lefties (.218/.292/.333, 67 wRC+) and striking out 31.1% of the time overall, more than eight percentage points above his career norm; against southpaws, that strikeout rate is an unsightly 39.3%.

With 11 All-Star appearances, three MVP awards, and the no. 5 ranking among center fielders in JAWS, Trout doesn’t have to do anything more to wind up in Cooperstown. Still, he’s just 34 years old and has five more years under contract, so it would be nice if he could avoid descending into sub-replacement-level Hell the way Pujols or Miguel Cabrera did as they played out their contracts. Trout does have some upcoming milestones to look forward to; he’s two homers away from 400, and a couple seasons away from 2,000 hits (he’s at 1,736). Here’s hoping that heading into the winter in reasonably good health instead of rehabbing yet another injury allows him time to work on shoring up his game.

Andrew McCutchen’s reunion with the team that drafted and developed him has allowed him to collect his 2,000th hit and 300th home run as a Pirate. That’s not nothing, but he’s not really getting any closer to the Hall in terms of WAR and JAWS. Both his 0.6 WAR and 101 wRC+ (.246/.340/.384) — the latter of which could help save the team from making dubious history — are steps down from last year and 2023, and just about everything I’ve written about him in this space in recent years still applies. While he’s a five-time All-Star, an MVP, and a Gold Glove winner who helped the Pirates to three straight playoff berths after a two-decade absence, his defensive metrics have suppressed his WAR and dampened his case on the JAWS front.

McCutchen would almost certainly have a peak score above 40.0 had he played average defense in center field. As I’ve shown in previous installments, that 40.0 peak score is a strong intermediate indicator of a Hall-bound career, in that about three-quarters of the eligible players to reach that mark have been enshrined. In McCutchen’s seven best offensive seasons by WAR’s batting runs component, he was a combined 27 runs below average according to DRS; overall, he’s been 75 runs below average via that measure. Using a 10-runs-equals-one-win exchange rate for some back-of-the-envelope math, that would translate to a 59.4/41.8/50.6 line if he’d played average defense straight across the board. That’s still 7.4 points below the JAWS standard, just below 15th-ranked Jim Edmonds and above Willie Davis and Jimmy Wynn, Cesar Cedeño, and Vada Pinson, fondly remembered players who are short of legendary. McCutchen fits in well with that group.

Also noteworthy: Currently playing just his fourth major league season, Julio Rodríguez isn’t really on the radar in a JAWS sense, but his 21.3 career WAR already ranks 51st among players through their age-24 seasons, just ahead of Hall of Famer Joe Medwick (21.2) as well as other enshrined outfielders such as Crawford (20.1), Tim Raines (18.7), Richie Ashburn (17.8), Ross Youngs (17.7) and Goose Goslin (17.5).

Right Fielders

Between the stomach virus that caused him to shed around 20 pounds, a fractured toe on his left foot, and who knows what other ailments, it’s been a trying season for Betts. His .250/.323/.376 (96 wRC+) line represents across-the-board career worsts, and from July 30–August 4, he went five consecutive games without a hit for the first time in his 12 major league seasons.

Nonetheless, the season hasn’t been a total loss for the 32-year-old Betts. In his second attempt, the eight-time All-Star and six-time Gold Glove-winning right fielder has done an impressive job of becoming an outstanding shortstop, a move that at the very least has no recent parallel. In fact, his 16 DRS at the position ranks second in the majors behind only Taylor Walls. Statcast’s evaluation of his defense is less charitable, but even so, his 3 FRV is in the black. At the plate, Betts’ bat has shown signs of life since he snapped that hitless streak, as he put up a 114 wRC+ in August after bottoming out with a 62 wRC+ in July.

Driven by some big DRS totals in right field (including 30 in both 2016 and ’17), Betts has led his league in WAR three times (2018, ’20, and ’23). He already ranks eighth at the position in JAWS, and fourth in seven-year peak, behind only Babe Ruth, Stan Musial, and Hank Aaron, though Judge has a chance to overtake him this season. Betts’ career totals, including his 1,738 hits and 285 homers, still need shoring up, but given his heavy presence in the MVP voting (he has three second-place finishes and two more in the top six to go with his 2018 win) and his reputation as a winner (he’s the only active position player with three championship rings), it seems clear that his heaviest lifting has been done.

Bryce Harper hasn’t played right field since tearing his ulnar collateral ligament in early 2022 and undergoing Tommy John surgery later that year. Even with his move to first base upon returning from that surgery — returning more quickly than any other position player has done, at that — he still qualifies at his old position for JAWS purposes. Given the team’s current disasterpiece of an outfield, it’s not out of the question he returns to the pasture at some point.

Between his initial elbow injury, a broken thumb, a hamstring strain, and this year’s bout of inflammation in his right wrist, Harper has played in just 480 games since the start of 2022. He wasn’t exactly the second coming of Ripken before that, having played in at least 147 games in back-to-back seasons only in 2015–16 and ’18–19. Still, when available, he’s remained an exceptional hitter; while this year’s 135 wRC+ (.269/.360/.502) is his lowest mark since 2019, he’s hitting the ball harder than last year, with an xSLG that’s 47 points higher and an xwOBA that’s 24 points higher.

All of which is to say that I don’t think the 32-year-old superstar is done being a superstar. Harper has been thriving in the spotlight since gracing the cover of Sports Illustrated at age 16, and his magnetism goes beyond the stats, particularly given that sometimes the numbers have been more solid than stratospheric. Aside from two big MVP-winning seasons — 9.7 WAR in 2015 and then 5.9 in ’21 — he’s topped 5.0 WAR just one other time (5.2 WAR as a rookie in 2012). The rest of his peak score is seasons of 3.7 to 4.8 WAR, leaving him short of a 40-WAR total but giving him room to improve; with a hot September, he could nudge that upward this season. He’s signed through 2031, owns a career 141 wRC+ (sixth among active players with at least 4,000 PA), and appears well on his way to 500 homers (he has 359). What’s more, he’s carved out a reputation as one of this era’s great postseason players, hitting .280/.394/.622 (171 wRC+) with 17 homers in 232 PA, and he’ll almost certainly have chances to add to his highlight reel this fall.

From 2022–24, Giancarlo Stanton hit 82 homers in 325 games while managing just a 107 wRC+ and a net of 0.7 WAR. Particularly once he missed the first two and a half months of this season due to bilateral epicondylitis — a double case of tennis elbow — it wouldn’t have been a surprise if he’d provided more of the same. Instead, the 35-year-old slugger is on an absolute tear, hitting .295/.374/.624 (173 wRC+) with 17 homers in just 196 plate appearances. He still swings harder than anyone, and still hits it just about harder than anyone when he connects, though with a 30.7% strikeout rate, he doesn’t connect as often as you’d like to see (unless you’re an opponent). Even after so many of his other skills have eroded, his power is absolutely breathtaking.

The litany of injuries that has limited Stanton to playing just 55.6% of the Yankees’ games since the start of 2019 — about 90 per 162-game season — has also cost him a shot at some stratospheric milestones, as well as WAR and JAWS totals that would mark him as a clear Hall of Famer. If he could ever maintain some modicum of what he’s got going right now across a full schedule, he could improve a peak score that includes seasons of 3.1 and 3.8 WAR. Still, his chances at making the Hall are almost certainly reliant upon getting to 500 homers (he has 446). According to colleague Dan Szymborski, this season has improved his ZiPS career projection from 492 to 533. Here’s hoping his legs — and elbows and back and really every other part of his body — are up to the task, because baseball is more fun when Stanton is hitting 118-mph bombs.

Soto set several career highs in his lone year with the Yankees, including homers (41) and WAR (7.9); his 181 wRC+ was a full-season high as well, though he did have a 202 wRC+ in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. His monster campaign was well-timed, as he jumped boroughs to ink a record-setting $765 million contract with the Mets, but his first season in his new home has been something of a disappointment by comparison — albeit one with 36 homers, a 155 wRC+, and 5.3 WAR with four weeks left to play. Most of that comes down to a slow start; Soto hit just .231/.357/.413 (118 wRC+) with nine homers through the end of May, but has batted .276/.427/.596 (182 wRC+) with 27 homers in 350 PA since June 1.

With his 0.9-WAR rest-of-season projection, the 26-year-old Soto should surpass the 40-WAR peak threshold in just his eighth season, and he’s got ample room to grow that given that his 3.0 WAR from 2018 is his seventh-best mark. For as much as his otherworldly plate discipline will drive his Hall of Fame case, his declining defense rates as a concern; he’s got -6 DRS for the second year out of three, along with -10 FRV. He’ll need to shore up his work in the field — particularly his reads and his jumps — to avoid becoming a full-time DH by the time he’s 30, suppressing his value.

Also noteworthy: While he’s raked at a .284/.410/.510 (156 wRC+) clip since returning from his second ACL surgery on May 23, Ronald Acuña Jr. has accumulated just 2.0 WAR this year and is at 27.6/27.6/27.6 as he nears the end of his age-27 season, with just two seasons worth 4.0 WAR or more. While there are Hall of Famers who had similar WARs at that juncture, such as Bagwell, Wade Boggs, Rod Carew, and Chipper Jones, those players did a better job of staying on the field after later starts to their major league careers. The story is generally similar for Fernando Tatis Jr., who’s at 26.7/26.7/26.7 as he nears the end of his age-26 season, his sixth; he’s lost the advantage of reaching the majors at 20, and he’s additionally burdened by his PED suspension, since voters have yet to elect anyone who’s been disciplined in such fashion.

Designated Hitters/Pitchers

Nearly two years removed from the second reconstruction of his ulnar collateral ligament — a hybrid procedure, not traditional Tommy John surgery — the unicorn isn’t completely unbridled. While Ohtani has returned to the mound, the Dodgers have limited him to 11 short starts totaling 32.1 innings, with a bit of bad luck inflating his ERA to 4.18 and costing him some WAR (he has 0.2 bWAR based on actual runs allowed, but 1.2 fWAR driven by his 2.26 FIP). On the offensive side, he’s in the mix for a fourth MVP award, hitting .276/.386/.600 with 45 homers and 17 steals. That last figure is a far cry from last year’s career-high 59, but given the demands of rehabbing from surgery and remaining available to pitch once a week, Ohtani was always less likely to run amok this season.

As I noted last year, JAWS really wasn’t built to handle a case like Ohtani’s. Given the hybrid nature of his career as a pitcher and hitter, he doesn’t have a career/peak/WAR line directly comparable to anyone except perhaps 19th-century pitcher-turned-infielder (and manager, pioneering labor leader, and executive) John Montgomery “Monte” Ward, who totaled 62.3 career WAR, 40.7 peak WAR and 51.5 JAWS in a 17-year career that featured much shorter schedules. Eight seasons into his career, Ohtani is already at 49.5/49.9/49.7 (his -0.4 WAR in 2020 is no longer his seventh-best season), and could very well join the 50-WAR peak club by the end of the season — or by the end of this week, if he gets hot. Of the 38 players in that club, 32 are enshrined, and four aren’t yet eligible (Betts, Trout, the recently-retired Pujols, and the recently-unbanned Jackson, the last of whom won’t be on a ballot until December 2027 at the earliest), leaving only Bonds and Rodriguez, who are both outside due to PED connections.

Ohtani is still two years away from officially qualifying for Hall eligibility, but particularly with a championship to go with those three MVP awards – to say nothing of his impact upon growing the game globally — I think it’s pretty clear he passes what Szymborski calls “the bus test.” Even if the Dodgers plan to keep him on a shorter leash than the Angels did, pitching-wise, I can’t wait to see where the rest of his career takes him.