Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 3/24/26

Brendan Gawlowski: Hello everybody. I’m back from AZ and already missing the sun. I’ll have another notes from the field post tomorrow and hopefully a Rockies list this Friday.

Brendan Gawlowski: I failed to answer my wife’s question last week, so we may need to go long to ensure I get out of the doghouse.

Brendan Gawlowski: Let’s get to it.

Ken Griffey Jr (Photographer): Is Emil Morales a 3B long-term or does he have a chance to stick at SS?

Brendan Gawlowski: Shot to stay at short.

Galahad: What do you make of Carlos Lagrange’s blowup yesterday?

Brendan Gawlowski: He’s going to do that from time to time.

Big Fan: Didier Fuentes made the team in long relief.  Have you heard anything more about him from your sources since you published the Braves list?

Brendan Gawlowski: Positive reports. They’re happy with him (duh)

E: Did eldridge’s first base defense look improved at all during spring training? Do you think he’s able to improve enough upon his strikeout rate and zone contact to become a .250+ hitter?

Brendan Gawlowski: Besides the arm strength he’s not a great defender. All value in the bat.

2026 International Class: If Emmanuel Rodriguez can get enough runway this season—thinking a longer-term IL stint for one of Minnesota’s outfielders—what are your expectations for his production? Will he walk enough to still be a top-end on-base guy with the miss concerns?

Brendan Gawlowski: I and we are a little skeptical that he can both be passive and competitive in only the lower part of the zone.

clydethedog: Saw rumblings that Crews is not prone to want to try and make adjustments, have you heard anything similar?

Brendan Gawlowski: I have not; the game has a way of forcing your hand at some point though.

RAH: Roki is not a MLB quality SP. Fact?

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s not out of the question but, particularly for where he is and who he’s pitching for, a relief outcome seems fairly likely.

Brendan Gawlowski: If he was, I don’t know, a National, you’d give him every chance in the rotation. The Dodgers have an incentive to take the bird in the hand a little quicker

Brendan Gawlowski: Icymi, I wrote about him last week, too: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/notes-from-the-field-observations-from-a-w…

Chance Cisco: Does the Os pitching in spring breakout (Gibson, German, and Dzerwa, 9 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 14K, 0 BB) mean anything, or just a nice showing?

Brendan Gawlowski: Another indication that they have some good pitchers. I wouldn’t read too much into one outing though.

Brendan Gawlowski: Like, Chase Petty looked in the Breakout. Mid-rotation quality stuff and arm strength. But also he shoved in part because he’s a big leaguer and the Giants rolled out a lineup with a bunch of A-ball (and lower) guys in it. The talent at these games is pretty stratified.

Marquayne: Who you got for ROY in each leagure?

Brendan Gawlowski: See our awards/postseason predictions post…. tomorrow I think?

Brendan Gawlowski: Imagine having any conviction in picking an NL ROY right now

Brendan Gawlowski: WIth McLain, Stewart, Griffin, Weatherholt, Chandler, etc. all lurking

Dewey Cox: Luis Hernandez potentially starting in single A? What could his best-case scenario path be to the bigs?

Brendan Gawlowski: He looked really freaking good. Best case scenario is a Soto trajectory, which I wouldn’t predict for anyone

mike: Would you start Rodriguez in MN, or Outman and Larnach? Or, Roden? I don’t get it…..do you believe in either Rodriguez or Roden?

Brendan Gawlowski: The French Sculptor! I think they’re different flavors of reserve outfielder. Rodriguez has more upside

SammyB: Is Josue Briceno have a chance to make the majors this year or next?

Brendan Gawlowski: 2026 possible, think 2027 more likely. Also depends how much time they want to invest in his defense behind the plate vs. pushing the bat.

Mariners Enthusiast: Ryan Sloan is the best SP prospect in baseball, agree?

Brendan Gawlowski: Not yet but maybe by May or June…

Tim: Thoughts on TJ Rumfield? He’s looked able to tap into the power and even took Flaherty out to center last night. Interesting flier who could emerge or a temporary distraction who’s basically another Schanuel?

Brendan Gawlowski: I saw him last year and he looked like a low variance bench bat/Asia prospect. But he’s done a couple things this spring — higher max EV, not swinging and missing at all — that have prompted a re-eval, which is a work in progress. My gut is a little skeptical still but the arrow is up here; Eric is a fan.

Oaktown Blues: How would you compare LDV’s shortstop defense with Jacob Wilson’s? Is LDV likely to push Wilson to a new position?

Brendan Gawlowski: I have LDV projected as the better defender but let’s see how the body looks a year from now and how Wilson looks with a year under his belt.

Selica: Andew Fischer looked good in both the WBC & spring training. Do you think he can develop into a 6 hit 6 pwr player?

Brendan Gawlowski: I will take the under

Joleen: Long-term, how will the Josuar Gonzalez & Luis Hernandez positions play out? Who is more likely to stay at SS? Where would the other one settle?

Brendan Gawlowski: SFG has enviable depth up the middle at the lower levels. It’s not just these two… Level is here, Marquez can pick it, Meola is a very good defender.

Brendan Gawlowski: Giants fans are going to have to try to not freak out when these guys inevitably play some second and third.

Brendan Gawlowski: For now both Gonzalez and Hernandez project as shortstops. They’re so young and so far away that it’s not really worth worrying about how they’ll overlap. Good problem to have if it comes to a head in 2030 or whatever.

Baseball learner: Opposite of a prospect question kind of, but if the angels really wanted to rebuild and he waived the no trade clause, could they even trade Trout if they tried without eating most of his contract?

Brendan Gawlowski: No, they’d be eating almost all the money

Jon: Is Europe the next great scouting/academy frontier?

Brendan Gawlowski: I’ve tended to lean towards ‘no’ but when the last episode of the La Riserva pod started out with “quanto bello è baseball” and the second guy replied “baseball è bellisimo, devo dire è il mio preferito tra i sport americani” and I got chills. Maybe!

Domingo: What’s up with “Throw” missing from player pages? There’s even an open slot for it next to the other tools.

Brendan Gawlowski: I’ll ask

Colton: Of the already announced OD roster moves, what has been the most surprising add and demoted player to you? Maybe it’s my proximity to the team being from STL but the Cardinals leaving Velazquez off the OD roster in favor of the Saggese, Fermin and Urias trio is absurd to me when they so desperately need any source of power on their team.

Brendan Gawlowski: The Crews demotion surprised me but also I don’t have an eye on Nats camp. No roster decision about Nelson Velazquez could possibly be absurd.

Sean: I always thought Ashby had the stuff to be in the rotation but it seems the backlog of arms has continually left him in the bullpen. Do you think he ever transitions or stays the 1-2 inning guy he is currently? And, is his current role the optimal situation for him?

Brendan Gawlowski: Bullpen is a good spot for him.

Brendan Gawlowski: We’ve probably overfit the multi-inning relief projection on guys but Ashby is an example of how it can work out very well

Pumpsie Green: Which Boston pitcher has the biggest upside, Payton Tolle or Connelly Early?

Brendan Gawlowski: I’ll say Tolle because the fastball is such a monster… But if I had to pick one I’d take Early.

Rob A: Might be too long for a chat but I’m curious if diving into the Rockies has given any insight into the new FO’s ability to turn around the org’s poor player dev track record?

Brendan Gawlowski: Too early to say. I was hoping their backfields would send a stronger signal one way or the other but we’re going to have to wait it out.

Jim: So is Zach Root turning into a dude? Comes in pumping a fastball 3-4 ticks faster than college. Updated thoughts on him?

Brendan Gawlowski: Every Dodgers source in the land was pumping him to us as we built our list.

Erick: post prospect. gorman cut his k% significantly this spring. it was over just about half the pa needed for the metric to become reliable. do you believe in the adjustments he’s made? can he settle in the 26-28% k instead of 32%+ ?

Brendan Gawlowski: Was he standing any closer to the plate?

Inspector Houlihan: GAWLOWSKI!  I leave for one week, and now you’re going crazy as a pair of waltzing mice!!  You tell some tall tales, kid, but my tail is taller.

Brendan Gawlowski: Welcome back, Inspector

Sir Nerdlington: Given the spending at the NCAA level, which is better for player development — going straight to pro ball out of high school or going the collegiate route? I know it depends on which club drafts you and what your collegiate options are, but let’s assume non-SEC and middling PD pro club.

Brendan Gawlowski: Sorry, but it really depends on the specifics. What does the player need to work on? What specific school is he going to? What’s his aptitude? How does he learn best?

Squiz: Is Juan Sanchez really 6’3″? What do you make of his hype this spring

Brendan Gawlowski: One amusing part of the ABS adoption is that a bunch of people’s heights have changed. So, I haven’t broken out the tape measure on Sanchez but, yes?

JOJO: CJ Kayfus is the future _____ in Cleveland

Brendan Gawlowski: Matt Lawton? Cleveland version not MN

Kelsey: Who are your picks to be the top 3 hitting prospects one year from now?

Brendan Gawlowski: Made, Rainer, Peña

Ozzie: Biggest riser on next year’s preseason top 100 prospect list? My bet would be on JoJo Parker.

Brendan Gawlowski: is it cheating to say Roch?

Zach: Does Hye Seong Kim need a change of scenery? Would he be an average starter or is he destined for a utility role?

Brendan Gawlowski: Reserve for me.

Steve: Does Tong ever develop the breaking ball with horizontal movement he desperately needs?

Brendan Gawlowski: I think he can be good without one. Not sure he can develop one without telegraphing it.

Jeremy: Odds the Phillies end up wishing they traded Painter instead of Abel?

Brendan Gawlowski: I would still take Painter

J Hench: How do you track and organize your scouting notes?  Is there a software package FanGraphs uses for the purpose, or something you, Eric, and James do individually?

Brendan Gawlowski: On the backfields there’s so much going on that I’m just blasting away on my phone. If I’m watching just one game, I type my notes. Eric uses a notepad. Everybody’s got their own thing.

Shirtless George Brett: Obscure question but have you ever noticed how Caglianone grips the bat? He has his index finger on his top had extended UP the barrel instead of wrapped around it (IE: gripping it). i have never seen that before.

Brendan Gawlowski: Never felt right to me personally, but I’ve seen it. I wanna say Mike Morse was the first one I noticed.

Philip: Can George Wolkow ever make contact enough to unleash the 80 grade power?

Brendan Gawlowski: To its full effect? Probably not

Ozzie: “Made, Rainer, Pena” the De Vries disrespect is real……

Brendan Gawlowski: You could also take the exact opposite conclusion, no?

EccentricATLFan: Someone threw out an idea in Ben’s chat yesterday of the Braves taking on Yoshida’s contract to get pitching that could slot into the rotation immediately (and also have Yoshida in the DH/LF rotation).  The one who asked mentioned Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval as the pitching going back, but since Boston was willing to add Sandlin to get rid of Jordan Hicks, could you see them being willing to add someone like Early, Tolle, or Bennett if the Braves ate part (or even most) of Yoshida’s contract?

Brendan Gawlowski: Early/Tolle seems too steep.

Brendan Gawlowski: Tangentially related but I’ve heard in a couple places that the Braves front office likes to get creative in trade discussions.

Guest: JONAH TONG

Brendan Gawlowski: We’re so back

Gino Time: You mentioned in your December Diamondbacks write-up the possibility of Arizona developing LuJames Groover as a multi-position player. But with incumbent Nolan Arenado being 206 years old, Jordan Lawlar looking less like an infielder, and no other prominent third-base prospects above Single-A unless Luis or Crisantes slides down the defensive spectrum, should they?

Brendan Gawlowski: If he comes up and hits .300, no. But I think it’s more likely than not that they keep cycling through veterans at third for a little bit.

Alec: Do you expect a high level of regression in Noah Cameron’s sophomore season? He had a strong rookie season with a bit of an artificial ERA; how do you balance the analytical expectation of coming down to earth with the more subjective anticipation of a young pitcher continuing to improve his repertoire through a full major league offseason?

Brendan Gawlowski: I’ve had him as a No. 4/5 for years and I still think that’s where he’ll settle

Billy G: Do you believe in Max Muncy’s (A’s version) spring?

Brendan Gawlowski: Didn’t see him personally but throughout his career he’s needed time to acclimate to a level. He’ll get there, struggle, and then figure it out. Wouldn’t write off the possibility he does it one more time.

Erick: on gorman. not sure if closer to plate. marmol said adjusted swing path. gorman said worked on getting front foot in better position before swing. not a great video but here’s a clip i was able to find from spring. what do you see?

Erick: gorman video https://www.youtube.com/shorts/EuwJjX9OaKo

Brendan Gawlowski: He needs to cover the outer half of the plate better. It was striking how much of his damage last year came on pitches right on the inside corner or further in off the plate. If these adjustments help, great… But I still see a guy leaking significantly.

Brendan Gawlowski: Also, lol at the pitcher you chose to include

Brendan Gawlowski: in that video

Big Buckston: Twins right now have maybe 5-6 guys who they probably want getting everyday at-bats in AAA in the outfield (Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Gabriel Gonzalez, Alan Roden, Hendry Mendez, and maybe even Kyler Fedko). How does a team handle something like that, with a logjam at one level?

Brendan Gawlowski: Somebody goes to AA until there’s an injury

Spencer: If Spencer Jones cuts his K% down to 28-30%, how much does that change his outlook and where would he rank in the top 100?

Brendan Gawlowski: Is he striking out 30% in the big leagues?

Brendan Gawlowski: If you told me he’d do that, I’d be all in

Baseball learner: Is Volpe a prospect miss at this point, and if he is how much of it is being brought to the majors too quickly

Brendan Gawlowski: Feels like there’s been a lot (lot lot lot) of discourse around a guy who’s been a low variance 50 for awhile

Brendan Gawlowski: He went nuts in Low-A and has otherwise just been… a good defender with a little pop and too much swing and miss to be an impact hitter?

Jorge: Fuentes and Ritchie are going to pitch for the Braves this year.  But which of the following are also likely to pitch for the big league team this year: Sinnard, Baumann, Murphy, Lara?  All four?

Brendan Gawlowski: Lara was in Triple-A last year, so he’s fairly likely to show up in some role

Brendan Gawlowski: Everyone else is looking at a multi-level jump to get there, which is possible for all three but not exactly likely

Farhandrew Zaidman: Purely from a development perspective, do you like beginning with Dollander in the pen versus throwing every 6 days in AAA? Maybe lets the Rockies use him as a long man on the road more often (where he was stellar in 2025).

Brendan Gawlowski: Not that this can’t work, but I was surprised COL went this direction.

Sean: Who’s the Can’t Miss Prospect you are shocked missed?

Brendan Gawlowski: If you’d have told me in October of 2019 that Keston Hiura was basically done as a good big leaguer, I’d have been pretty shocked

Brendan Gawlowski: Kelenic is a good one here too

DF: Minor league draft coming up. If you had first pick, would you take Luis Hernandez or Eli Willits? I’m pretty much down to those two.

Brendan Gawlowski: Fantasy question? Not that those two aren’t great prospects but I’d kind of hope other guys were there…

Key Jangler: Were you ever part of the feedback loop for the player dev group? IE were you ever asked to self-scout for a player directly?

Brendan Gawlowski: Never saw PIT’s system. The three guys who do the internal check are all very good scouts, Pirates fans are in good hands there.

Zippy: I just can’t keep it a secret any longer and I have to speak up. You’re my second favorite fangraphs writer. Now you know.

Brendan Gawlowski: I hope this isn’t my wife’s question…

Guest: volpe, at least for EL, wasnt a low variance 50. 60 fv, 55 future hit, 60 future game power (and minus speed?). 2023 top 10 prospect here, BA, pipeline, and prospectus. at least to the public, the expectations appear to have been meaningfully different than what he is. think that person was just trying to ask what caused either the eval misses or underperformance

Brendan Gawlowski: He was also 12th on the pref and that looks fine? Maybe if you do it over he’s 20th or so? That’s a pretty good outcome.

Bobby: Who do you think hits more – Lombard or Nimmala

Brendan Gawlowski: Nimmala but there’s hit risk for both

Sean: On another note, is there a current big leaguer who hasn’t met expectations you refuse to let go of the one-time potential?

Brendan Gawlowski: A bunch. The late development of guys like Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Max Muncy etc. suggest that there are probably good players who get flushed before things click

mike: I wish the Twins would trade for Dollander, if CO only values him as a RP…….

Brendan Gawlowski: They still see him as a SP long term, they’re just trying to get him innings in a lower stakes situation first.

Farhandrew Zaidman: We’ve seen a couple of prep prospects who actually threw harder at 18 than at 26 (Giolito, Painter, Petty, Kolek). Is that just an injury thing? Is there any way to predict who keeps their velo and who doesn’t? If so, should those dudes get pushed so they can shoot their bullets in meaningful games?

Brendan Gawlowski: It’s not uncommon at all. Some guys probably should get pushed a little faster but everybody’s path is a little different.

Jaysfan: Josh Kasevich finished Spring Training with a nice looking triple slash line but as someone who has watched a ton of his pro plate appearances I have real concerns about what to me looks like an inability to do anything with pitches below the waist but pound them into the ground, did you see similar issues with pitches near the bottom of the zone when you scouted the NWL

Brendan Gawlowski: Gonna be a lot of contact without much power. Tricky skill set

Goober: Is Johnny King the real deal??? or is it too early to tell?

Brendan Gawlowski: Let’s see if he can get into the zone more often. I think ‘yes’ but it’s an adjustment.

Dan Norman Lear: Any new data or info on Ethan Holliday this spring?

Brendan Gawlowski: Yes. Notes on him coming tomorrow. Short answer: he looked surprisingly good at short.

Josh Naylor eat a salad: True or False: Jake Cook is the fastest player in Jays organizational history?

Brendan Gawlowski: He’s not the first 80 runner they’ve had. Splitting hairs at a certain point.

Brendan Gawlowski: He’s gotta be the fastest guy to ever go 3-8 on SBA’s at a mid-major program though.

Billy G: Henry Bolte getting to some power in ST…anything there with lifting the ball more or just some SSS luck?

Brendan Gawlowski: Lot of factors help guys drive the ball in Arizona. I don’t have anything more specific, let’s see how it looks in *checks likely minor-league home* … hmmm.

gamer: any spring breakout pitchers catch your eye? eyanson and phillips from the sox looked electric to me

Brendan Gawlowski: Chase Petty was really good; Cam Day’s curveball was a 70; Wellington Aracena held power stuff for three innings

Jon: In the grim darkness of the far future, will the Dodgers still win the World Series every year?

Brendan Gawlowski: No, for better or worse, the tournament is set up in a way that flattens the field.

CDz: Is there any optimism at all for Chase DeLauter to not be as injury prone going forward as he has been?

Brendan Gawlowski: Not really, we’re all just hoping

E: Do you think Ryan Sloan could end up with a cup of coffee by the end of the year?

Brendan Gawlowski: I lean no. He’s in an org that tends not to rush, he needs to ramp up, he’s a few levels away, the big-league rotation is good, the club has prospect capital if their big guys go down…

Farhandrew Zaidman: Can someone please for the love of God free Ryan Ward? Man has hit almost 80 HR in AAA since 2024.

Brendan Gawlowski: Hope he gets a shot. Feel for him that he couldn’t get a cup of coffee and a ring one of these last two years

Farhandrew Zaidman: The BOARD has Dodgers OF prospects in order as De Paula, Hope, Quintero, Sirota, then Tibbs. But around dodger land, it feels like they consider Tibbs the closest/most interesting. What order do you have these 5 in?

Brendan Gawlowski: Haven’t laid eyes on everybody but Sirota looked really impressive in the game I caught him. Some hit risk but what an athlete

Brendan Gawlowski: Tibbs for me is a high floor/low ceiling guy. Could be a regular, wouldn’t shock me.

CT: How much do guys want their prospects pushed up the rankings? Is all positive attention good, or is there some incentive to want them ranked lower?

Brendan Gawlowski: They want their guys pushed

Brendan Gawlowski: I had to cut off a source when we crowdsurfed picks to click

Dan: McGonigle is listed as the starting 3B on the roster resource page.  Is that really where he’ll be playing?  Has he played 3B before?

Brendan Gawlowski: Sparingly, but he’s done it. Sometimes you just make room for the bat.

Guest: Out of prospects projected for 2027, are there any you could see potentially tearing thru the minors and landing on a roster given a unique circumstance?

Brendan Gawlowski: Happens all the time

Sean: Is there a chance Jett Williams finds himself on the left side of the infield or is he simply too short? I keep reading he’s an option over there if needed.

Brendan Gawlowski: Don’t know if I’ve ever moved someone off the left side for height specifically…

Greg: Any Pirates you are especially rooting for to succeed in 2026?

Brendan Gawlowski: All of them, I want that org to do well

Farhandrew Zaidman: Which AAA rotation, as it currently stands, would be the best MLB rotation over 162 in 2026?

Brendan Gawlowski: Gotta be Boston, right?

Hecubot: A’s fans know that their window of contention opens when/if their top tier pitching prospects (Jump, Arnold, Lin, Nett) develop. But we also saw some tantalizing glimpses this spring from Echavarria, Huggins, Henry Baez and Zane Taylor. Who do you like to break out from that second group?

Brendan Gawlowski: Good one to ask Eric on Friday, he’s put in the work on that club.

Ozzie: Do you have Schlittler as a potentential ace level guy? Crazy to like him more than Yeasavage?

Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t think that’s crazy

ponopoly: Any hope for Zac Veen?

Brendan Gawlowski: Yeah, I’m not “sold” exactly but he’s a very interesting follow right now.

two way: thoughts on the two two-way players in the Rangers system?

Brendan Gawlowski: Kim: We need more time to suss out which side makes most sense in the long haul, things to like on both sides.
Owens: Didn’t see on the mound, unfortunately. Took some good swings, looks raw defensively.

KCfan: What’s Ragans future?

Brendan Gawlowski: Ace

Fin: You said Volpe has been a low variance 50 since Low-A. Why did he get a 60 grade as a graduate in 2023? Was Eric unusually high on him?

Brendan Gawlowski: I really should have looked at what was written online, I am not trying to pick a fight with what Eric wrote a few years back… I happened to see him for a week in 2022 and came away thinking he was a good defender with speed and a little pop but also a flawed hitter with a shaky approach

Brendan Gawlowski: And I know of others who felt similarly

Brendan Gawlowski: If, at the time, you thought “he’ll outgrow those approach questions and hit” that was reasonable too.

Key Jangler: will we ever see a left handed fielding shortstop?

Brendan Gawlowski: No

Farhandrew Zaidman: On the Volpe note – is there a current or recent prospect there was a lot of industry variance on? I’m talking like one publication has a 40+ while another has a 55 or something.

Brendan Gawlowski: Happens all the time

Key Jangler: How do you feel the minors-specific rule changes will affect the game? Specifically moving second base?

Brendan Gawlowski: Like most of them, worried someone’s going to get killed at second base

Kate: What’s Max Anderson’s path to PT at the MLB level in 2026?  Is there one aside from injuries?

Brendan Gawlowski: he could force the issue, but injuries/underperformance are usually what gets a guy the call.

Big Buckston: What does Kevin Alcantara have to do to get some run with the Cubs? With the Suzuki injury, the team is choosing to go with Michael Conforto and Dylan Carlson over Alcantara.

Brendan Gawlowski: This kid of happened with Cassie too, odd pattern of reluctance to play internal guys with some helium

Brendan Gawlowski: Entirely possible that our eval is quite different than theirs, there’s hit tool risk here and maybe they just think he’s not gonna do it

RoyalBlue: Will Kendry Chourio be top 30 prospect this time next year?

Brendan Gawlowski: I like him but that’s aggressive.

Farhandrew Zaidman: last one for me – is there an MLB for prospect trade that looking back on was particularly egregious? I may or may not be asking this question just to complain about Yordan Alvarez for *checks notes* Josh Fields.

Brendan Gawlowski: We could probably litigate the merits of Gleyber for Aroldis forever. But yeah, that one sticks out too.

Oaktown Blues: Do you feel a pressure to present your viewpoints on prospects with more certainty than you actually have? Like another flavor of “you can’t org the complex” – you can’t say “it depends” or “not sure” every time

Brendan Gawlowski: Not really. If I have an opinion, I’ll share it. If I don’t and I need to develop one, I’ll do the work.

Colton: Re: Egregious Trade, Caminero for Tobias Myers

Brendan Gawlowski: Shields for Tatis

Brendan Gawlowski: With those happy memories… let’s shut it down. Thanks again for all the questions. We’ll do it again next week.