A 2024 Hall of Fame Ballot of Your Own – and a Schedule of Profiles
Hall of Fame season is underway, and I’ve already reviewed six of the eight Contemporary Baseball Era Committtee candidates and gotten a start on the annual BBWAA ballot. With the latter, it’s time to launch what’s become a yearly tradition at FanGraphs. In the spirit of our annual free agent contract crowdsourcing, we’re inviting registered users to fill out their own virtual Hall of Fame ballots using a cool gizmo that our developer, Sean Dolinar, built a few years ago. I’m also going to use this page to lay out a tentative schedule for the remainder of the series, as well as links to the profiles that have been published.
To participate in the crowdsourcing, you must be signed in, and you may only vote once. While you don’t have to be a FanGraphs Member to do so, this is a perfect time to mention that buying a Membership does help to fund the development of cool tools like this — and it makes a great holiday gift! To replicate the actual voting process, you may vote for anywhere from zero to 10 players; ballots with more than 10 won’t be counted. You may change your ballot until the deadline, which is December 31, 2022, the same as that of the actual BBWAA voters, who have to schlep their paper ballot to the mailbox.
The ballot is here and contains all 26 candidates (and no, you still can’t write in Pete Rose or Barry Bonds). We’ve got tables of career stats for the ballot’s position players and pitchers, if that helps, as well as a checkbox that allows you to see the stats of those already enshrined. As with last year, I’ll write up the crowdsourcing results sometime before the announcement of the official results on January 23.
As for the schedule, I’m still piecing it together, so what is sketched out below is incomplete and should be regarded as tentative. I do anticipate several first-year candidates with no shot at election — the one-and-dones — running sometime in early January, which allows me to focus on the stronger cases before the ballot deadline while continuing to pitch in with our coverage of free agent deals and other offseason news. This also lets me go a bit longer with the profiles of those one-and-done candidates, for whom just appearing on the ballot after an impressive career is its own reward. In order to free up space for contemporary coverage, I plan to group together brief summaries and updates of a few down-ballot candidates, such as those of pitchers Mark Buehrle and Andy Pettitte, or PED-linked sluggers Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez, as relatively little has changed in their cases since last year.
Rest assured that I’ll be covering every candidate at length or in brief, in keeping with what I’ve done since the start of my JAWS-flavored coverage in 2004 (I’ll be celebrating the 20th anniversary at some point in January). I’m not about to miss any now. New profiles below are denoted with asterisks.
Nov. 20: Intro
Nov. 21: Todd Helton
Nov. 27: Billy Wagner
Nov. 28: Gary Sheffield
Nov. 30: Andruw Jones
Dec. 1: Joe Mauer*
Dec. 5: Carlos Beltrán
Dec. 6: Bobby Abreu
Dec. 7: Andy Pettitte and Mark Buehrle
Dec. 13: Chase Utley*
Dec. 14: Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez
Dec. 15: Adrían Beltré*
Dec. 18: Torii Hunter and Jimmy Rollins
Dec. 20: David Wright*
Dec. 21: Omar Vizquel and Francisco Rodríguez
Dec. 28: Bartolo Colon*
Dec. 29: My Ballot
Jan. 3: Adrián González*
Jan. 5: Matt Holliday*
Jan. 9: Chewing on JAWS at 20 Years*
Jan. 10: José Bautista*
Jan. 12: James Shields*
Jan. 16: Brandon Phillips*
Jan. 17: Victor Martinez*
Jan. 19: Jose Reyes*
Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.
Beltre
Utley
Mauer
Beltran
Sheffield
Wagner
Jones
Buehrle
Pettitte
I think the first 7 are pretty clear-cut (Beltran was a player, not a coach, and he’s taken his well-deserved hit)…and I just like Buehrle and Pettitte, haha!
I’m confused by voting for Sheffield and Pettitte but not ARod and Manny.
Why?
Pettitte used HGH to recover from an injury in the Wild West era.
Meanwhile Sheffield, as detailed in Jay’s writeup, has exactly nothing in common with a pair of repeat, unrepentant cheaters like A-Rod and Manny.
i voted for beltre, utley and mauer
This is the most I’ve filled out for this ballot in quite some time. Roughly in order of how I’d rank them:
Beltre
Utley
Mauer
Sheffield
Jones
I’m probably a “medium-to-small” hall person (or musical instrument) in the big picture (a real “small hall” voter would just go for Beltre, probably). But in the context of the FG comment section I’m almost certainly a small-hall voter.
I think I have decided that:
-I don’t have enough information on Andruw Jones’s domestic violence arrest to disqualify him (although I will may change my mind next year…again)
-I can’t vote for Beltran due to cheating (I may also change my mind about this next year), and
-Abreu and Helton are under the line (at least until I get bored because I don’t have enough other people on the ballot I want to vote for, although Helton will probably make it in before that).
I’m definitely all-in on Sheffield now. Better late than never! Not voting for anyone suspended for PEDs or non-Rivera relievers, but I have resigned myself that Wagner is getting in and I’m fine with it. I’m just less cool with the fact that Wagner is going to get brought up for Kimbrel, and Jansen, and Chapman…
Next year we’re going to get Ichiro and Sabathia, so I kind of hope that if Helton and Wagner are getting in they get in this year so more voters keep ticking those boxes for Utley and Mauer.
There’s one real voter out there who says that he is going to vote for anyone he thinks who won’t get a vote from anyone else on the first ballot, just because he thinks it is the right thing to do. I don’t know if anyone here is likely for that, but Martinez and Phillips seem like the most likely candidates to me.
If it makes you feel any better about Wagner, all three of those guys are now pretty firmly behind him on a rate basis…and that gap is only going to grow as they spend the next few years compiling to reach his innings total.
They’ll probably fall behind Nathan before all his said and done.
Beltre might be unanimously elected, deservedly so.
To my eyes it’s a shame on the hall that Bonds and Clemens aren’t in already, and ARod is another obvious “yes”. Manny and Sheffield are lower case versions of the same feeling.
Andruw’s playing career to me is HoF, as was Beltran’s before the trash can I’ve come around to accepting that Helton is a HoFer even when deflating his numbers for a Coors adjustment, and, for their position, Mauer and Utley’s numbers make the cut.
That left a battle between Abreu, who has sneaky awesome offensive numbers, and Billy Wagner, who has the 5th highest career RP WPA in the Fangraphs chart. I went with BWags, since he feels more like a HoFer than Abreau, and I already had three outfielders on my ballot.
Abreu
Beltran
Beltre
Helton
Hunter
Mauer
Rollins
Sheffield
Utley
Wright
Would have voted for Buehrle, Gonzalez, and Holliday if I had the space.
There are 278 players in the HOF. My standard for new inductees is simple: did they have one of the 278 best careers ever. After adjusting for segregation, I have no problem putting any of those 13 guys in the top 278. Same for Jones, Pettitte, Ramirez, Rodriguez, and Vizquel but their extracurriculars crowd them out.
Beltre- no brainer
Beltran- Has paid the penance for something that I feel was more widespread than baseball would like to admit.
Utley- best % player since Joe Morgan, great all-around player
Mauer- peak as catcher makes him in easy choice
Sheffield- been on this bandwagon for years. One of the top 50 hitters of all time. I question the defensive metrics, he wasn’t great, but, he never felt he was THAT bad. The steroid stuff is just noise, IMO. More of a product of the Wild West era than Sheff being a cheater like A-Rod/ManRam.
Helton- Have come around on him, barely over the line, but, still a great peak, even with Coors inflation.
Thoughts on some of the “No’s”:
Rollins- I wish I could find a way to vote for him, my thought is he was better than his WAR would suggest.
Abreu- Hall of Very Good for me. I think WAR overrates him. Still a good, solid career but to me, the line in RF starts with Evans, Sheff, Parker, etc before Abreu.
Andruw Jones- To me, you have to believe the defensive metrics of “Best CF ever & it’s not close” to vote for him. I question Sheff’s bad #’s, so I am also questioning Jones #’s. His collapse at age 31 (without seeming to get in shape/caring while on a big $$ deal) & DV incident don’t help. To me, the 90’s/00’s CF HOF line starts with Edmonds & Lofton.
Billy Wagner- Just too many like him. Nathan, Kimbrel, Chapman, Kenley, K-Rod, etc.are all similar & I can’t see 6 relievers in a 15-20 year period (plus Rivera) as deserving. If Wagner had more bulk or dominated in postseason maybe I’d jump on board, but, he was bad in multiple chances.
Nathan, Kimbrel, Chapman, Kenley, and K-Rod are all closer to Papelbon than to Wagner.
Wagner threw over 900 IP, with a 54 ERA-.
The list of relievers with 800 IP and a sub-60 ERA- is Rivera (46) and Wagner (54).
Jansen’s next on the list, with 64…which is further from Wagner than Wagner is from Rivera.
That gap will only grow over his next couple of MIRP caliber seasons as he works his way towards 900 IP.
If you lower the innings threshold to 700, you have Kimbrel and Pap tied at 58…but Pap has already retired, while Kimbrel’s added 5 points to his ERA- over his last 129 innings, and 12 points over his last 224.
I’m not expecting that trendline to reverse in his age 36 season.
I think you should look to find someone who watched Jones’ career closely that disagrees with his defensive greatness. It might bf impossible.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2023-hall-of-fame-ballot-andruw-jones/
Jay’s write up of Jones last year. Go about 2/3 of the way down & look at Chris Dial’s work & his thought on Jones stats being propped up by discretionary plays.
BTW, I’m not saying Jones was a not outstanding CF, just that to get him in he has to be “best of all time” & I’m not buyng it.
I wrote a long reply to this that was somehow and for no good reason deleted as “spam,” and I’m not doing that again, so I’ll just say I believe there is a mountain of solid evidence to support Jones as the greatest defensive outfielder of the last 50 years and some wishy-washy nonsense that says he isn’t; so I’ll go with the mountain.
I’d vote for Jones.
But no one’s disputing that he’s the best defensive OF of the last 50 years.
Folks are parsing the margins, because his HoF case essentially boils down to being nearly twice as valuable defensively as Willie Mays, despite playing half as many seasons.
If he were “only” twice as good as Willie on a rate basis, he wouldn’t be all that close to Hall consideration.
Beltre & ARod. That’s it.
I had:
Abreu
Beltran
Beltre
Helton
Mauer
Ramirez
A. Rodriguez
Sheffield
Utley
Wagner
I have the same, except Andruw Jones instead of Manny.
I’d also vote for K-Rod and Pettitte if not for 10-player max.
Jones and Pettite, as well as Buehrle, are all on my maybe list.
Abreu
Beltran
Beltre
Helton
Mauer
F. Rodriguez
Sheffield
Wagner
I’m generally on the fence about relievers getting in at all. But if you believe Wagner is HOF-worthy then you probably need to feel that about Rodriguez, too, because their careers are eerily similar.
Wagner’s ERA+ is 40 points higher and has a 5% greater strikeout rate during the peak of the steroid era.
Yeah, the biggest part of Wagner’s candidacy is that, when you look into the stats, he was quite a bit better than whatever non-Rivera reliever you point to.
Beltran
Beltre
Buehrle
Helton
Mauer
Pettitte
Ramirez
A. Rodriguez
Sheffield
Utley
I voted for the following:
Abreu
Beltran
Beltre
Helton
Jones
Ramirez
A. Rodriguez
Sheffield
Utley
Wagner
I also feel that Mauer & Pettitte are also worthy of the HoF.
Beltre
Sheffield
Helton
Mauer
Jones
Hunter
Abreu
Buehrle
Rollins
Rodriguez (Alex)
I’m going to contradict myself on the cheater aspect, but what Beltran did irks me more than A-Rod. And Ramirez was my first off the ballot. I’d like to see guys like Buehrle, Hunter, Rollins, and Abreu get a deeper dive like Walker. They may be fringe guys, but like to see another year. I don’t think relievers necessarily deserve the hall, while Wagner was dominant, it’s not enough IP for me personally, and I think he will get the votes while I can disperse to Rollins or Hunter instead. I’m also a fan of using all 10 votes as well.
Bobby Abreu Bobby Abreu Bobby Abreu Bobby Abreu
Yes: Adrian Beltre, Carlos Beltran, Joe Mauer
Might as well: Todd Helton
Okay, fine: Andruw Jones, Billy Wagner
Homer pick: David Wright
It’s not going to matter, but whatever: Gary Sheffield, Chase Utley
Might as well fill it out to ten: Mark Buehrle
Not right now but I can be convinced: Jimmy Rollins, Torii Hunter, maybe even Andy Pettitte
Just make it stop: Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez