A Comparison Between the Wild Card Games
Do you guys know Jaack? That’s not a very good introduction. We’ve run live game chats during the wild-card playoffs the previous two nights, and Jaack is the screen name of at least one participating commenter. This is Wednesday’s live chat, and this is Jaack, at 11:05pm EDT:
Comment From Jaack
There needs to be an article about how much better last night’s game was. Like inning by inning breakdown.
Jaack’s the best. Thank you, Jaack! Following is such a breakdown.
Tuesday’s game, of course, set an impossible standard. It feels like it’s an all-time kind of playoff game, and while I’m fully aware of recency bias, I felt the same way after Rangers/Cardinals Game 6 in 2011, and that one’s stood up. We can debate how amazing it was to watch the A’s and the Royals, but there’s no debate that it was some kind of amazing. So there was no chance at all that the Giants and Pirates would follow that show with at least an equivalent show of their own, but Wednesday was a total dud. The saving grace was that Madison Bumgarner pitched and was awesome, but for the most part he was awesome without any danger, and when the outcome feels decided, the entertainment value plummets.
This isn’t about the quality of the baseball. This is about the quality of the show. We already know that Tuesday’s show was several times better, but now let’s put some actual data to it because what else do you have to do for the next few minutes? If you started reading this, you can finish reading this.
This is going to deal with our win probability data. You probably know what that’s all about. We’re able to determine approximate winning odds for each team for any given game state. Win probability also informs a statistic known as Leverage Index, and while I could give you the actual mathematical definition, let’s leave it at this: Leverage Index (LI) is basically a measure of how stressful and important a situation is. When a closer is trying to nail down a one-run save, the LI is high. When a middle infielder is pitching, the LI is low. LI measures the potential win-expectancy swing from the range of potential plate-appearance outcomes.
Our win-expectancy plots also feature LI plots. Here are the LI plots for the two wild-card games, and I won’t tell you which is which, because I don’t need to:
One of them changes color. One of them disappears! If you’re a visual learner, that’s an astonishing image. Now here are the win-expectancy plots, one pasted over the other:
The x-axis, of course, is time, and while one of these games went more innings than the other, you get a real good sense of the flow. The American League game was a roller coaster. The National League game was a level walk, with a step up one step in the middle. It was quite the step; after the walk, you remember the step. You also remember thinking, outside of that step, that wasn’t much of a walk. Maybe the scenery was nice.
Now we should look at some actual numbers, instead of a visual representation of numbers. Okay, so, the average event in the AL game swung the win probability by 5.2%. The median was 2.8%. The average event in the NL game swung the win probability by 1.6%. The median was 0.7%. And, after the fourth inning? After four, the Royals were up 3-2, and the Giants were up 4-0. From the fifth inning on, the average event in the AL game swung the win probability by 5.8%, with a median of 3.1%. In the NL, the numbers were 0.4% and 0.3%. Another way of saying that is, after the fourth inning, in the NL game, nothing really happened. The Giants doubled their run output, but it didn’t do anything for the viewers. Even Giants fans might’ve felt the beatdown got excessive, and Pirates fans never got anything to cheer about.
Switch on over to Leverage Index. Similar approach! The average event in the AL game had an LI of 1.66, with a median of 1.12. The average event in the NL game had an LI of 0.50, with a median of 0.21. And, after the fourth, the average event in the AL game had an LI of 1.93, and a median of 1.26. The average event in the NL game had an LI of 0.13, and a median of 0.09. Have I already noted that an LI of 1.00 is average? An LI of 1.00 is average. The AL game, start to finish, was 66% more stressful than an ordinary game, and the NL game was half as stressful. And after the first few innings were over, the difference was far more pronounced. Which you knew, if you watched, but now you have sweet sweet numbers on your side.
For the sake of comparison, let’s look at some pitchers. As noted, the average AL game event had an LI of 1.66. That matches the average event LI this season for Aroldis Chapman, Jenrry Mejia, and Rafael Soriano. The NL game matched the average event LI this season for Seth Rosin, one of the Jose Ramirezes, and one of the David Carpenters. From the fifth inning on, the AL game matched the average event LI this season for Kenley Jansen and Glen Perkins. The NL game matched the average event LI this season for a Fornataro, a Campos, an Adams, and a Scribner. Position players tend to pitch with the LI at 0.00 or 0.01. The NL game wasn’t that low, but it did eventually get there. And we’re looking at several innings, instead of a couple plate appearances or so.
As the final and maybe most effective way to put this over the top: in the American League wild-card playoff, there were 19 separate game events that swung the win probability by at least 10%. In the National League wild-card playoff, there was one such event. You know exactly what it is — it was the one thing that happened. Baseball’s gotten to be more and more of a regional game, but the AL game captured the attention of the whole country. Impartial observers came away thinking, that was spectacular. The NL game was the opposite side of baseball, the side where nine innings still take as long as a usual nine innings, but there’s little point in watching past the first few. One of these games, people will talk about for years. Decades, in some areas. The other’s just a hell of an achievement for Madison Bumgarner, who’s already been outstanding on a far bigger stage.
We’ve had two playoff games. One of those games was Baseball! The other of the games was baseball. On average, then, we’ve had pretty decent theater.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
“We already know that Tuesday’s show was several times better, but now let’s put some actual data to it because what else do you have to do for the next few minutes? If you started reading this, you can finish reading this.”
Vintage Sullivan.
Vintage Mark Brunell!
the NL Wild Card game was pitiful. Not that it would have mattered who pitched for the Bucs based on them getting four hits and not scoring, but that fourth inning was a great example of why you don’t start pitchers who are barely above replacement level in eliminiation games.
So, were the 1st 3 innings examples of why you should start said pitcher?
Edinson Volquez is who we thought he was, and the Giants didn’t let him off the hook.
Edinson Volquez removed his mask to reveal Edinson Volquez.
Hurdles, no they were not. Volquez had poor command in the first three innings, too. He just got away with it.
The game wasn’t a dud if you were a Giants fan. If you were a Pirates fan, you probably headed for the exits early. Lots of empty seats in the 8th and 9th.
Correction: The game wasn’t a dud if, and only if, you were a Giants fan. Fans of any other team were bored out of their minds.
Pirates fans were probably more devastated and sad than bored out of their minds.
And Giants fans were all probably like incredibly sped up time-elapsed versions of male parenting: taptapthisonwhoboyhowdyimmajumpyahuhwhatsthatumyawannayawannayawannahokaywerecookinwithgasnowforsureohoohooohuuuuuhnnnnicethatsNICEthatslikeVERYVERYFRACKINGGREATWOWEVERYTHINGISWONDERFULohyeahahjeezallofasuddensosotiredwhatsthatsoundohlookatthatlittlecutielooksjustlikeMEimmasoproudPROUDhavea cigarbuddyhaveaDRINKOHYEAHWHOSDAMANIMMADAMANuhohgodwhatsthatstenchwhats thatsoundjesusfortheloveofnonotthatagainwhathappenedtoallmytimewheredmyfriendsgoWHERESMYFREEDOMso tiredsotiredofthisnoyoucantisaidyoujustcantmanohmanthisisboringiknowit wasfunonetimelongagojustcantremember…
Not a dud, but also not very thrilling. Giants fans (and everyone else) weren’t on the edge of their seats.
You could even call that 4th inning thing by Crawford something of a failure.
All season long, Crawford’s been among the best in the NL and MLB in ‘productive at bats’ — which, given the Giants don’t bunt much, mostly means driving the ball into the outfield deep enough to get Pence, Posey or Sandoval (but most often Pence) home from third. Adrian Gonzalez’s pretty much the hereditary Sultan of Sac Flies with all those Gordons and Puigs, but Crawford’s up there with him.
What Crawford didn’t factor in was that extra-short PNC porch in right. At AT&T, that exact same poke gets caught at the warning track. Result: an Excuse Me dinger.
Huh? Hitting a HR when you’re trying to hit a ball in the air at least deep enough for a SF is nothing of a “failure” in any respect. He was certainly fortunate (and apparently surprised) to have gotten enough of it to drive it out. But no hitter goes to the plate trying to hit a SF, especially with the bases loaded and no one out. They go up there thinking to drive the ball and knowing that if they execute the worst outcome will be trading a run for their out. Crawford executed perfectly.
And not that it matters but I’d be surprised if Pence was the runner most often advanced by Crawford’s 10 SFs this year considering that around 80% of Pence’s PAs came hitting 1st or 2nd while around 80% of Crawford’s came hitting 7th or 8th.
You appear to confuse “something of a failure” for “nothing but a failure”.
Also, you missed the tongue – the one in the cheek. Even tho I was actually being serious, about what Crawford was expected to do, what he was trying to do, & his record of doing it this season.
Also, Pence has been all over the first 6 spots in the Giants’ batting order this season. You think Pence has hit 1st or 2nd “80%” this season? You imagine; go check the record.
Ha. HA! I say: Pence only hit in #1 or #2 a total of 77% of the time – in order:
31-94-1-9-26-0-0-0-1*
That’s like:
.191/.580/,006/.056/.000**/.000**/.000**/.006
[*Technically, he pinch-hit in the pitcher’s slot.]
{**rounded to the nearest tenth of a per cent]
Which makes my POINT … worse?
I still think my main point was funny, and raises a baseballish question: If the Pirates were to engineer a trade for Crawford (Say, Crawford & Lincecum – who’s very popular – for McCutcheon [Seems fair!]), would Crawford then proceed to turn into the Pirates’ Mel Ott and beat that short RF porch like a stray snake?
Crawford wasn’t trying to hit a sac fly and therefore didn’t fail at what he was attempting to do. He was trying to drive the ball well enough to produce at least one run if not more and he succeeded and then some. I get that you weren’t trying to say that his AB was “something of a failure” in the larger sense (obviously, since he hit a grand slam). But your notion that he failed in any sense is still wrong.
It’s at least arguably possible that such earnestness is better spent on something like audit work or timing sprints at NFL try-outs – some less frivolous endeavor than commenting on a baseball fan blog.
Everyone knows homers kill momentum. If Crawford was a true veteran who knows what it takes to win in the postseason, he would have sacrificed himself to advance the runners. This noble act would inspire his team to bunt and steal and #grit more runs home. Selfish failure on Crawford’s part.
Avattoir, I wouldn’t have bothered if you didn’t just say you were “actually being serious” that Crawford was trying to hit a sac fly (and that therefore you could call his AB “something of a failure” since that wasn’t the result). I’m not trying to audit you here. All you had to do was acknowledge that you understood that’s not actually what Crawford was trying to do in that situation.
I would call it a dud even as a Giants fan. I’m quite happy it was a dud, but it was pretty boring. When the two most exciting events after the 4th inning are a pop fly in foul territory and the pitcher striking out, that’s a dud no matter how awesome it was to see Panda snag the pop fly over the dugout railing or how hilarious it was to hear Bumgarner cursing about the strikeout.
I am the best. You’re Welcome.
Thoughts about the NL game;
That river outside the stadium was filthy.
The signage was now even close to being as good as the Royals crowd.
Pirate fans knew the game was loss as soon as Crawford’s ball cleared the fence.
Pirates vendors actually wear a form of the teams baseball uniform. (very cool I think0
Mad Bum yelled fuck really loud when he struck out, picked up well by the field microphones.
That is all.
The NL game had a very subdued vibe even before the Crawford granny. Sure the crowd was into it early but I was surprised at how calm and methodical the Giants seemed from the very first pitch. As a fan I recall a lot more emotion during their previous playoff runs and some pressing in each case too. This time though everyone seemed totally relaxed from the get go with every hitter content to take pitches and letting the game come to him. I’ve got to think some of that was a reflection of their supreme confidence in Bumgarner in addition to their accumulated playoff experience. Whatever the explanation though, it was such an all-business bloodless killing from start to finish that I can’t imagine how anyone who wasn’t a Giants fan would have still been watching past the 5th inning. Plus I doubt those endless shots of depressed Pirates fans helped ratings much either.
That AL game OTOH should already be on ESPN Classic. Not just for the great comeback and late game back and forths but for the incredible Royals running game. Not to say the stolen base is undervalued or anything like that but for a guy who grew up with NL baseball of the 70s and 80s it did remind me how much I miss watching that style of baseball just for pure entertainment.
Funny how legends get made. This AL wildcard was replete with stupid moves, all of which is being over-written by the (undeniable) drama, (considerable) slapstick humor & (as televised, from the home team’s field, complete with showbiz narrative) happy ending. It was a badly played game that was held much emotional satisfaction & that’s attracted much favorable review. But it’d be a mistake to overlook how idiotic were the numerous subplots that happened to precede the outcome. It reminded me of The Producers where Springtime For Hitler, designed to be a sure-fire failure, turns into a huge comedy hit.
Whereas, this NL wildcard was a case of clinical baseball, the team with the one overwhelming ace being in the toppiest of top form up against a set of home balloons begging to be popped. Sticking with the theme, it was formula hospital drama when that sort of thing ruled TV Land; or worse: a Congressional subcommittee meeting on budget planning aired on CSPAN.
Funny thing about the AL game:
A’s offense WPA/LI: 0.47
Royals’ offense WPA/LI: 0.49
A’s pitching WPA/LI: -0.49
Royals’ pitching WPA/LI: -0.47
Moral of the story:
Do well with high leverage.
Given MLB is pitching dominated, what did you expect. I’d say, if you really want to enjoy baseball in this era, you better learn to enjoy good pitching matchups. The Pirates didn’t forget their bats, Bumgarner stole them.
Minor nit: not sure this is true: “When a middle infielder is pitching, the LI is low.” A middle infielder pitching probably implies it’s a tie game in extra innings; LI will naturally be high, especially as the winning run gets on base, etc.
Well, not “probably implies”, but “sometimes implies”. Could be a blowout, yes.
So is the difference in drama also the reason why Fangraphs coverage of the two games is so different? After the AL WC game, there were 5 different post-game articles dissecting different aspects of the game. After the NL WC game? none. Unless you count this one, comparing the two and calling the second one drama-less.
Where’s the typical Fangraphs post lauding an absolutely dominant pitching performance? What about the one talking about how unlikely it is that Brandon Crawford is the first SS to hit a grand slam in the playoffs? And Volquez vs. the Giants? What happened to the second half ace of the 1.xx ERA?
Who thought Volquez was an ace? Even the most diehard of Pirate fans were scared of him starting this game. Pirates beat reporters were pointing out on Twitter that he had faced poor offenses in the second half.