A Manny Machado Trade Has Become Inevitable
At the beginning of every season, each team has at least some kind of chance of eventually making playoffs. At the start of the present season, for example, the Orioles featured about a 5% probability of making the postseason in some form.
Those odds aren’t great. That said, there’s recent precedent for club’s succeeding from that modest starting point. Last season, the Rockies started their campaign with about a 10% shot at October. The Arizona Diamondbacks, meanwhile, were at 8%, while the Minnesota Twins begin with about a 5% probability of reaching the playoffs, just like this season’s Orioles. The Rockies and Diamondbacks got off to hot starts and jumped their chances up to around one-in-three within a few weeks. The Twins hung around .500 for a while. keeping their odds steady for a time. When no other challenger emerged for the second Wild Card, they claimed it almost by default.
The Orioles, on the other hand, are following a different trajectory. They’ve begun the season 6-17 and have lost whatever margin for error they possessed. And while the calendar hasn’t even flipped to May, it’s likely time for them to look ahead at the long-term health of the club. That means finding the best possible package for superstar Manny Machado.
Before we get to Machado, specifically, let’s consider Baltimore’s place in the standings a bit more thoroughly. The Orioles started off this season with a reasonable shot at the playoffs. As noted, however, they’ve gotten off to an awful start. That awful start has already rendered their long-ish playoff odds essentially non-existent. Here’s what their playoff-odds graph looks like since the beginning of the season.
It’s possible that graph doesn’t really do the odds justice, so here is another graph showing the odds as their chances of making it to the playoffs. For example, at the beginning of the year, the Orioles had a 5% chance of making the playoffs, which we will say is a 1-in-20. If they had a 2% chance, we’d say that is a 1-in-50 shot. Here’s how the graph has changed since the beginning of the season.
The Orioles’ chances of making the playoffs are down to about 1 in 1,000. If you prefer to look at things in terms of wins, you’d find that Baltimore is currently projected to win about 45% of the rest of their games — equivalent to about 63 more victories — to get them up to 69 for the season. Needless to say, that won’t be enough to make the playoffs. We don’t know what is enough for the playoffs, but if we give the AL East to the Red Sox, the Central to Cleveland, and the West to the Astros, that still leaves the Angels, Blue Jays, and Yankees as viable candidates for the Wild Card — with the Twins not too far behind. Given the talent and relatively positive starts from those teams, it seems like 87-89 wins will be necessary to take the second Wild Card spot. That means the Orioles — expected to play like a 74-win team (out of 162) the rest of the way — would need to play like a 94-win team to make the postseason.
For the club to win 82 more games and make the playoffs, individual Baltimore players would have to considerably outperforrm their projections. Consider, first, that replacement-level team would be expected to win about 42 of the remaining 139 games this season. That means Orioles players would need to produce about 40 WAR the rest of the way to approach 88 wins. Baltimore’s players, meanwhile, are projected for roughly 26 WAR. If every single Oriole increased his expected output by 50%, the club would still only be expected to reach 87 wins. If Chris Davis hits like he did years ago, the injured Tim Beckham repeats last year, and Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman pitch like aces, that gets them only a little past halfway to the improvements needed to contend this season.
After acknowledging that the Orioles’ season is functionally over in terms of postseason contention, the logical next step for the club is to sell off short-term contracts in hopes of getting a better return for the future. That means trading Manny Machado. Trading Machado now isn’t necessarily the best idea. Over the years, major trades in April and May are rare. Josh Hamilton was moved a few years back because the Angels wanted to be rid of him and were willing to pay to do so. The biggest early-season trade last year was probably Matt Adams for Juan Yepez. A vast majority of trades occurring well before the deadline are either for cash or a player to be named later. There are good reasons why players of Machado’s caliber are not dealt early on in the year.
In July, selling teams often get the best value for their players because buyers become more certain about the value of a win. In April, a hopeful contender isn’t sure if an extra win will do them any good: they might be out of the race by the middle of July or, alternatively, so far ahead of the competition that an extra win or two would help them little. That’s balanced against an early season trade benefiting the buying team more because they receive four or five months’ production from a player as opposed to just two months in a deadline deal.
In order to find a match right now, Baltimore would need to find a team (a) almost assured of remaining in contention, (b) almost certain to face a tight race, and (c) in need of help at third base or shortstop. No team is exactly a perfect fit at the moment, but three teams seem most likely to be helped by Machado the most: Arizona, Cleveland, and St. Louis. Both Arizona and Cleveland were involved in rumors of pursuit with Machado in the offseason, while St. Louis was also speculated as a fit. Cleveland might not desperately need help to take the division, but the addition of Machado would allow the club to move Jose Ramirez to second base and put Jason Kipnis in the outfield, providing a significant upgrade for the team. They have the prospects to get it done, and the window of contention is wide open right now.
The Diamondbacks are currently starting Nick Ahmed at shortstop, and while the numbers don’t provide the team with great odds to stay ahead of the Dodgers, Machado would make the division race close and put the team in much better position to capture what could be a very hectic Wild Card race. As for the Cardinals, what was true for the Diamondbacks holds true for St. Louis in the NL Central with the Cubs. In Matt Carpenter, Jedd Gyorko, and Kolten Wong, they already have three players for two spots at second and third base — which isn’t even to mention Paul DeJong at shortstop. One of those four players would need to be moved in the deal, perhaps making the Cardinals the least likely destination.
It’s perfectly reasonable for the Orioles to hold on to Machado and hope the urgency of the deadline creates multiple suitors or, at least, a single desperate one. The team does run some injury and performance risk by holding onto him, but waiting on the potential for a better deal if there are no suitable offers now is a defensible one. Machado himself is erasing any doubts about his merely average 2017 season with a huge 209 wRC+. The MVP-level Machado is back. The Orioles are already in the midst of a lost season. The logical conclusion of those facts puts Manny Machado in another uniform within the next 100 days. A deal right now isn’t likely, but the time to start receiving offers is already here.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
One of the strongest reasons to look at dealing Machado now is that Toronto is still competitive at the moment. Fangraphs gives them 44% playoff odds. While Manny has moved to SS, I have to imagine a lot of teams would look at him as a potential 3B option and Machado holds more value now than he does in a world in which the Blue Jays are also trying to deal Josh Donaldson.
Just to be clear, you’re saying Machado at SS and Donaldson at 3B, right (because it wouldn’t make sense to trade for Machado and then trade Donaldson)?
mtsw is saying that Machado might have more value now while his market is exclusively him. If the Jays fall out of contention, Donaldson will be on the market as a bit of a cheaper alternative.
My bad. I definitely read that for some reason as the JAYS should try to trade for Machado because they have a 44% playoff odds, thus Machado could boost them up more.
Well if the Jays deem themselves real contenders, they certainly COULD make that move. Lord knows they have the prospects to get it done…
I wonder what kind of return they could get? Assuming Machado as a rental
i read it like that too
They’re saying if Toronto does poorly they’ll want to trade Donaldson. Then there will be two elite 3rd baseman available at the trade deadline.
I think that Angelos will kill that trade, unless he’s getting Vlad or a bluechip prospect that no ALE team will surrender.
Unfortunately, you’re right.
Also add Moustakas into that equation. Nowhere near as valuable as the other 2, but a viable option for many
If Beltre is healthy and shows signs of performing like he did in 2016-17, then he’s also a high-end 3B rental option who you’d think that the Rangers are motivated to trade.
Beltre does have trade approval rights as a 10-5 player, but it’s not hard to see him being willing to go to a contender for one of the last seasons of his career (if not the last).
And Beltre is hurt
By waiting though, the Orioles may have lost their best market in NYY. The way Andujar has been hitting recently, they will be much less motivated to pay up for Machado. And the way Gregorius is hitting, they’re going to be much less likely to move him off SS to accommodate Machado long term.
Looking at the contenders, it’s hard to see an obvious fit. Milwaukee could really use him at SS, but it’s hard to see them trading for him, since they have virtually no chance of extending him.
On the other hand, Arcia looks totally overmatched and they have some nifty infielders in the pipeline (Hiura, Dubon, Erceg). They could afford to acquire him and still have pieces to fill that spot next year.
Also, that whole NL Central looks vulnerable right now, adding Machado and Nelson by July would be nifty.
Peter Angelos would rather keep Machado than trade him to NY. That’s been established already.
Yeah I was gonna say the same thing. I don’t see Machado getting traded to any team in the ALE, particularly the yankees. Sure, if the offer was good enough it wouldn’t matter much to the O’s on a rental, but if that were the case I don’t want it as a yankee fan. I could sort of see Toronto doing this, but there are better fits elsewhere for the O’s.
I’m a Yankee fan and so obviously I’m biased in this regard, but I think the Yankees could put together a package that Baltimore just couldn’t possibly turn down — say, Andujar, Clint Frazier, and Domingo Acevedo.
Seems like a massive overpay, JD Martinez fetched Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcántara, and Jose King.
JD Martinez is also a terrible defender at a non-premium position…
But I do agree; that’s a massive overpay for a rental.
Sure, we could put together that package. But I would never pull the trigger with that package for a rental. And Andujar should be off the table completely.
But having them in the bidding clearly helps Baltimore, even if they have no intention of sending him to NY.
“it’s hard to see them trading for him, since they have virtually no chance of extending him.”
Extensions of top-flight free agents less than 1 year away from free agency have become very rare. I doubt that any team trading for Machado is putting much if any value on having an exclusive negotiating window with him through the end of the season.
I think the more compelling argument is that Milwaukee thinks the have a contention window for the next 3 years or so, and probably isn’t willing to push chips to the center for one year.
Of course, if it involves giving up a Dawel Lugo as the centerpiece, I bet they do it. I just don’t think that’s going to happen this time around.
angelos was never going to approve a trade to the Yankees.
Who knows what the Orioles will do. After all, they gave Alex Cobb a four-year 60mm deal on the eve of the regular season when pitchers of his ilk were lucky to be getting one-year deals.
Weird things happen when ownership routinely undermines and invades the province of the GM
I mean I would have said before the season that Baltimore would have to trade Machado, as they had no real shot at contention. But who knows what that front office is thinking…
Maybe they were thinking “the Twins, Rockies, and Diamondbacks all made the playoffs last year.”
The Twins, Rockies, and Diamondbacks also didn’t have New York AND Boston in their own division. Baltimore has always been an extreme long shot at best.
It might feel like less than 5% because your division is tough, but 5% is still 5%, regardless of division, right?
How about the Phillies? They could use him as an upgrade at either short stop or third, and unlike at least Arizona and Cleveland, could look to resign him (unlikely to get an extension, but if he like Philly, he might lean towards them if they have a near-top offer). That advantage helps mitigate the possibility that the Phillies fall back and thus the trade is something of a waste. It would mean giving up on Maikel Franco, but that doesn’t seem like a big deal. Then you just figure out who between him and Crawford you want to be short stop.
The Phillies at 12.1% playoff odds would be better served to not give anything up for him and sign him as a FA.
But trading for Machado would jack those odds up a lot. I don’t see why it makes sense for a team like Cleveland that is all but certain to make the playoffs to go for him (to slightly increase their crap shoot playoff odds), but not a team like the Phillies, that could improve from 1 in 8, to soemthing like 1 in 3 or perhaps even a little better. The Nats and Mets are now projected for 87 and 86 wins respectively, with the Phillies at 80. So this could even mean a division instead of a wildcard.
The Phillies should wait for their odds to make the playoffs be better and the price for Machado to presumably be lower to make that move. This year is suppose to allow them to take inventory of their young pieces. Bringing in Machado for 85% of the season for a large price tag from a team that is still taking inventory at the front end of their window makes little sense. If they are in it with a decent chance to make the postseason and other options being shopped(Donaldson primarily,) the all-star break or August would be when they make the deal.
You’re probably right, but they could at least kick the tires.
True, no harm in that. Just need to be cautious with a young team and the allure of the playoffs. Blowing a hole in your future for a chance today when you can make a run at the same player a year later that fits your perceived window better doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Plus the Nats may be falling apart next year. The Mets look like well the Mets… So next year is really when they should be building to compete with everyone not just the division because the division next year could be wide open.
The Nats may be falling apart this year.
They still have Harper and Scherzer… Next year most likely just a year older Scherzer(with most likely 6 consecutive 200+inning seasons)…
Harper and Murphy most likely will be leaving via FA this offseason
These are important factors, you name. There are other ones though. Such as, waiting and not getting the player. Also, I can see why YOU think this is a “take inventory” year, but bringing in an old veteran starter like Arrieta (or Santana), definitely does not make me think that THEY think it is. I could see them getting aggressive, actually.
They signed Santana and Arrieta because of the value they got on the deals, not because they think they can win right now. It certainly indicates that they realize their window is about to open, but they’re still best served by pushing to sign Machado in the offseason when they lose nothing other than cash.
This year they get to see what they have in Kingery, and give Franco and Crawford another year to prove they belong on a contending team. This offseason, they will be poised to make insanely strong pushes to select free agents and become a serious contender.
The worst part of this whole thing is that I’m a Mets fan.
They HAD to sign a pitcher this year and if they truly wanted a 1b they HAD to do it this year. They have 5 years of control on Arrieta and 4 years on Santana. They are locked up for awhile.
Take a look at the project FA class for this upcoming offseason. Unless Kershaw opts out pitching is going to be devoid of the talent this last offseason had. 1b is pretty awful too.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/2018-19-mlb-free-agents.html
They actually had a 1b but they thought it was a good idea to put one of the slowest players in the game into the outfield.
Like what the Phillies did but don’t understand that move because it creates a playing time crunch.
Who’s to say Santana wasn’t brought in in case Alfaro continues to flop? He hasn’t caught since 2014 but maybe that’s still an option to them. Have to see what happens going forward but Hoskins does have a good enough bat to make up for issues in the OF.
I’m still scratching my head over the Santana signing. This is just an attempt to somehow legitimize the signing. I doubt Santana will ever be anything more than a 1b/DH. Which is why I’m grasping at straws for that signing. Yes, Hoskins is a much better option at 1b than anywhere in the OF.
” This year is suppose to allow them to take inventory of their young pieces. ”
Yes in general, but at 3B in particular, every day that goes by it’s becoming clearer that Maikel Franco is not the guy . He’s over 1500 PA in the majors and showing no real development or improvement. Unless Kingery can play 3B regularly, which most scouts think he can’t, that’s a rather obvious hole that Machado would fill perfectly.
Yes, Machado would be good at 3b for the Phillies. But why would they do it at this point this season? And do you actually believe the Orioles would actually be reasonable on their asking price?
Everything to gain by selling now – risk is on the buying team that Machado gets injured, and while there may be more SS/3B buyers (not a guarantee) at the trade deadline, there will certainly be more sellers, and you’re selling something that has depreciated in value considerably.
Indians seem like a no brainer to me – Machado would turn the AL Central into a relative cakewalk, and with him in the lineup and that pitching staff you could see them hanging tough with the Astros or Yankees in the playoffs. Orioles should float the idea of Mejia while the season is young , he’s struggling, and the Indians are waffling about how he fits onto the roster – the Indians have shown willingness to include him in a trade before.
Machado to the Indians would be nuts. But how does he fit in to that lineup for you? Lindor moves to 2b and Kipnis is traded?
From the dang article: ” the addition of Machado would allow the club to move Jose Ramirez to second base and put Jason Kipnis in the outfield, providing a significant upgrade for the team”
Alright, I think the current options in the outfield at current are better than Kipnis, at least right now. I also don’t want to take abs from Brantley(when healthy), Zimmer and Naquin. Problem is without a bounce-back no one is going to want Kipnis at his current rate.
Also, would playing 3b most of the season harm Machado’s FA contract to some degree? So would he be vocal about not wanting to go there?
Without a bounce-back I think the Indians need to think about potentially giving Kipnis some time off to focus or dl him to send him on a rehab assignment in the minors. Because he looks lost right now. Yes, he did have a good spring. But how much of spring is spent batting against MLB regulars?
If he doesn’t snap out of it he should become expendable. That’s my point. If the Indians were to acquire Machado if everything continues the way it is going I believe Kipnis is most likely to be the guy losing abs.
2B on the wrong side of 30 who hasn’t been particularly good since 2015? Kipnis may be cooked.
Yeah, the problem with Kipnis is he could only play LF … where they have Brantley .. who can also only play LF. If it came down to it could just put Kipnis on the bench instead of Erik Gonzalez
Kipnis leads the entire major leagues in balls in play that are hit at the ideal launch angle/ev. So I am guessing it is just negative variance.
“Kipnis leads the entire major leagues in balls in play that are hit at the ideal launch angle/ev. ”
Why isn’t he leading the league in hrs then? If he’s hitting both angle and EV he should have more than 0 hrs…
Worth noting too that the Indians will soon have a roster crunch when Urshela comes off the DL, as he and Gonzalez are both out of options. Obviously neither would be anything near the centerpiece of a Machado deal, but as ML ready guys who play on the left side of the infield, either could immediately slot into his roster spot with the Orioles.
If I understand correctly the odd man out would be placed on waivers and the teams with the worst records in the league would get first dibs: meaning Royals currently at 5-16 and then O’s at 6-17. If I have this correct the O’s really don’t need to value him in a trade unless they absolutely love him and are that afraid of the one or two teams before them selecting him off waivers.
Of course, my understanding of the situation could be completely off the wall wrong.
It’s the Orioles, they’ll bury their heads in the sand and pray they get a deal done with him.
If they were serious about resigning him, I feel like we’d already have an extension.
With what Machado can make as a FA why would he even consider an extension that isn’t ludicrously lucrative?
He’ll get at least 35/year anywhere and why would he want to stay with a floundering franchise?
I feel like STL’s middle infield logjam is not actually an impediment. One of those guys would just have to go back to BAL in the deal. As none of them are either superstars or slam-dunk prospects, they wouldn’t even be the centerpiece.
They’re probably not getting a “slam dunk prospect” for a rental (even a Machado one) in the first place, though.
No reason whatsoever to think that way. It’s not exactly apples to apples, but elite players can absolutely return elite prospects. Look at the Chapman deal from a couple years ago that shipped Torres to the Yankees, Matt Holliday for Car-Go (and others) in 2008, and the Cespedes for Fulmer deal from 2015.
I don’t think the market has suddenly decided that top Major League proven talent is no longer worth top tier prospects, because there will always be uncertainty with prospects.
I actually have looked at this in some depth in the past, and the Chapman trade is really on an island in recent history in terms of getting a tip-top prospect for a half-season rental. Fulmer’s prospect status in 2015 was nowhere close to what Torres’s was when he was traded.
You can go back through all the recent big-time rentals and Torres is the only top-20 type prospect in them. Beltran to Giants, Greinke to Angels, Price to Jays… none of them got anything like Torres. They were all headlined by grade-B guys. The Cubs just screwed up on Chapman.
Granted, Machado might be a somewhat better player than some of these guys were, so maybe he gets a little more. Or maybe somebody screws up again — it happens. But it doesn’t seem like something Baltimore should be counting on.
If they trade him NOW, though, Holliday’s an interesting comp. You’d be buying close to a full season of work.
“The Cubs just screwed up on Chapman.”
How you could write that, And GET seven other humans to agree with you, is actually mind blowing. Or, pretty good comedy
They paid Torres because was Chapman was the piece that could help the Cubs win the World Championship of baseball. Then, he did.
They would not have won without him. He was all over crucial innings all through those playoffs, and the Cubs have Russell at SS, Baez at 2B, and Bryant at 3B
It can happen, but let’s look at these trades:
– one of them (Holliday) was almost 10 years ago.
– the Chapman deal was widely viewed as a big overpay by the Cubs at the time, not just in abstract surplus value terms but also looking at what 2.5 years of Andrew Miller returned at the same trade deadline relative to Chapman’s trade return as a pure rental.
– Fulmer was part of the deal for Cespedes during the 2015 season. Looking at Fulmer’s Baseball Reference page, he wasn’t on the top 100 prospect lists from any of BA, MLB, or BP going into the 2015 season. He was then ranked between #47 and #87 on those lists before 2016. Even if we give Fulmer full credit for the latter improvement by the trade deadline, I question if that’s an “elite prospect”.
Said a bit differently, Fulmer at the time of the trade was a pitcher in AA whose stock had improved quite a bit due to 86 good innings at AA that year. I think there’s a lot of hindsight now to saying that Fulmer was regarded as an “elite prospect” back then because we now know that he’s been a 3+ WAR per season major league starting pitcher.
Here was Dave Cameron’s description of Fulmer at the time of the trade: “Michael Fulmer is the headliner in the deal, and while Kiley McDaniel gave him a 45 FV grade before the season, he told me he’d bump him up to a 50 based on the improved slider and command he’s shown this year. Still, it’s mostly a toss-up whether he’s a starter or a reliever, and he’s sticking with his Joba Chamberlain comparison, so this isn’t exactly a premium pitching prospect that the Mets just surrendered. ” https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mets-finally-land-big-bat-in-yoenis-cespedes/
The number of 6-8 WAR players that are traded at the deadline is shockingly small. This shouldn’t be surprising, since the pool of MVP-caliber players on horrible teams is also extremely small, and that pool is further pinched by whether the player is a pending free agent. If you’re looking at position players, I think you have to go back to Ramirez to the Dodgers or Teixiera to the Angels to get a comparable. But that was pre-comp pick revisions, so it’s really hard to compare. The Teixiera trade netted the Angels the comp pick that allowed them to draft Mike Trout.
So with that in mind, I think that the Chapman trade is a reasonable starting point for what Machado should be getting, given that 1: Machado has a ton of positional flexibility, 2: Machado’s projected WAR is probably double or triple what Chapman’s is. If that package was an overpay for Chapman, then it likely represents reasonable value for Machado.
I’d use the Darvish-for-Calhoun trade rather than Chapman-for-Torres, which is an incredible outlier. Machado > Darvish, so I think Baltimore could get an FV50 + FV45 in late July in which the FV45 is the premium over Calhoun, an FV50. They could get FV55 + FV40 if they traded him in the next month.
Was Calhoun an FV50 then? I seem to recall he was more like an FV55. Regardless, I think an FV55 and an FV50 or FV45 probably represents fair value for a team going for it. FV 60s and 65s are probably off the table altogether.
yeah, a 55 headliner feels about right.
That’s more a change in Fangraphs’ FV calibration over the winter than a decline in Calhoun’s estimation. FV55 + FV50 is too much and FV55 only comes if they trade him closer to now than closer to late July, where the headliner drops to an FV50.
Im sure the Cubs made up for the “bad” Chapman deal with millions of dollars in sales of WORLD CHAMPION 2016 Hats, shirts, coffee mugs. Also because of history, joy, love, the purpose of competing, etc.
I can’t believe the lack of understanding that goes into writing something like that.
CONTEXT! If the rest of baseball thought that was an overpay, they were incorrect. The dude went for it, and in context it made sense. and also WORKED OUT PERFECTLY. That’s all you can ask of a deal really.
What if the Cubs could have won the World Series and still had Gleyber Torres instead of not having Aroldis Chapman? Or had some other stud reliever still with the team? Or traded for Aroldis Chapman, but kept Torres and traded somebody less valuable away?
I’m not saying all of these things are options, but you’re not doing anything to demonstrate that that trade was the one and only way the Cubs could possibly have won a World Series either.
Straight up for Amed Rosario. Who says no?
You think that Alderson even gets to the R in Rosario before Duquette hangs up?
*hangs up while laughing hysterically
Really?? Rosario dropped that much?? He was a top 5 mlb prospect last year, no shot he gets traded for a rental
Mondesi isn’t dissimlar to Rosario completely (both top 20 prospects who are SS, young, and have struggled in their MLB debut).
Can’t imagine the O’s start a Machado trade conversation with Mondesi as the leading name.
Both teams simultaneously
The Rockies could sure use a bat. Obviously he’d be a SS in Denver, but an upgrade would really help a team with a short window of contention before Arenado’s free agency.
Story has a 126 wRC+. Obviously they’re not moving Arenado or Lemahieu. I don’t see a fit.
Story had an 81 wRC+ last year and strikes out more than 30 percent of the time. Machado is a major, major improvement for a team with a pretty putrid offense.
He’s only 25, has a career wRC+ of 101, and plays a slightly above average SS. Machado is better than him of course. But Story is a solid, cheap, young player. You don’t just bench a player like that.
That’s a a fair observation.
I suppose I imagined him being a main piece in a Machado trade (with Rodgers/Hampson coming up next year). I also can’t imagine he’s less effective than Ian Desmond is….. wherever Ian Desmond winds up playing.
I tend to think the team’s window of contention isn’t very big. That offense is pretty rough and needs an upgrade *somewhere*.
Should the Rockies pull the trigger on Machado with Rodgers in the wings? Rodgers is killing it and what would the Rockies need to offer? Would Pint be enough to be the center piece of that trade?
That is true. You don’t bench a player like that. You follow precedent and just keep them in triple AAA.
A few other considerations. First of all, Manny is owed $16 million this year, and an early trade makes this a bigger hit on the buyer’s finances. This is actually relevant even for the “big six/seven,” because I’m sure they’d all like to maximise the chance of a first seed, and having a stellar 3B/SS couldn’t hurt in the post season. But none of them are going to pay that much for it. I predict that the “rental” market this year will be just as poor as the FA market over the winter, for similar reasons.
In his favor, Manny is projected for 4.5 to 5 WAR (depending upon where you look). Most of that uptick is still available this early in the season. But then again, he’d be replacing (or moving) a 3B/SS on the buying team, and there seem to be a lot of 2 WAR 3B/SS out there. I think that ~$16 million for ~3 extra wins is an acceptable price, but I’m not sure that this is the way that FOs are going on a single-year basis.
Then there’s the cost (to the buyer) and the value (to the Orioles) of what the Orioles get back, which one would hope on their behalf is pitching prospects who are almost oven-ready. (Plus, probably, at least one other high-quality AAA prospect.) This is going to be tough. The top ten farm systems appear to include three contenders: Toronto, the Yankees, and the Dodgers. The Toronto system isn’t stocked with arms (and Rogers are mean with cash), Angelos won’t trade with the Yankees, and the Dodgers, per Cots, appear to be at $187 million and are desperate to reset the tax clock.
I doubt a trade is going to come any time soon. I do think that Machado will be a hot item in July, because (a) he’ll be cheaper and (b) there’ll be at least one underperforming team — currently the Dodgers, but this can obviously change — who need that extra (pro-rated) 1.5 WAR to get over the finishing line.
Having said all that, one possible outlier in the Race For Machado is the Phillies.
They definitely have the money. They are off to a surprisingly good start. They could handle a rental in the IF. I don’t think that Manny would be too disruptive when it comes to moving other players around. I would be fairly confident in assigning his value to the Phillies at +3 Wins. Which might be enough to get them a wild card spot, a year or two early.
Plus which, they seem to have a huge depth of pitching prospects to deal.
Even with your very generous projection of 3 wins, they probably don’t even win the WC. There’s zero reason for the Phillies to trade for him now when they can sign him in the offseason and give up nothing.
How is three extra wins for Machado “very generous?” I think that is conservative.
The Phillies are at 12% playoff odds. I would (and have) smashed the over regarding their win total. Not sure why everyone thinks that there is some certainty that they will not make the playoffs especially with teams like the Dodgers reeling. If you watch baseball games you’d know that Kershaw does not look like the same pitcher, and it is very realistic that only 1 team comes out of that division.
Kingery has looked bad. Santana has been incredibly unlucky. Their bullpen has been slightly mismanaged. There is a lot that can go right with the Phillies.
3 playoff runs in the past even years was a good run. A JV version of the Giants.
I’d be excited for a Machado at SS for the Diamondbacks to go toe to toe with the Dodgers all year.
I love the idea for Cleveland. Their window is now, and with the ascendancy of the Astros/Yankees who are younger, as good/better, and have more money I think Cleveland is at serious risk of being passed by. If I’m them, I load up and go for it.
The article hit on the two teams that made the most sense. Cleveland would be ridiculous with Machado and could definitely use him. The Diamondbacks defense is ridiculous with Ahmad but Machado would make them such a fun club to watch offensively. Love their studs.
As a Mets fan, could they potentially make a run for him. Frazier could slide to 1B because Gonzalez is on a minimum contract and it wouldnt hurt us to cut him with Flores on the bench. Machado could also provide backup if Rosario struggles. They also have the salary room to get it done. With the way the Mets are playing, it could put them over the top to steal the NL east from the Nationals.
Yeah, but do they have enough trade pieces to make Baltimore take a deal from them vs the other possible trading partners?
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-18-prospects-new-york-mets/
I don’t know how deep into a rebuild the O’s would need to go, but I dont think the Mets have too many untouchables across all levels. O’s struggle to develop pitching, so would they want arms? Would they avoid them unless they are MLB ready? Mets are built for the next couple years but Machado could make a WS happen this year. Couple low minors prospects with high to mid ceilings and taking on Mannys whole contract could get the job done. (I’m terrible at evaluating trades so I could be off)
I don’t see the advantage in the Mets dealing a lot of chips — if they even have the chips — for a rental superstar who isn’t a catcher but if they’re doing it, Rosario is the one you want to bump. The Mets are average to above-average at every other position (besides catcher, the one spot that desperately needs an upgrade) so if Rosario isn’t included in the hypothetical deal he’s probably spending the rest of 2018 in AAA and coming back next year when the rental is over.
That makes sense. I’m not so high on Gonzalez’s’ health holding up and his contract plays into the possibility of the scenario I mentioned. Rosario’s bat may be below average but his glove is above average at a premium position. Does Gonzalez’s’ defense/offense really outperform Frazier’s at 1B to have the need to send Rosario to AAA if the Mets were to get Manny? And obviously the Mets have a greater need behind the plate, which is where they should focus attention too first.
if by some Miracle the Mets were able to trade for Machado, they would definitely be giving Rosario to the Orioles as part of the package.
You’re getting your marginal-upgrade logic extremely scrambled here. The question is not Gonzalez vs. Frazier, it’s [Gonzalez/Flores 1B platoon + Frazier + Machado] vs. [Frazier/no platoon partner + Machado + Rosario]. And that question has an extremely obvious answer.
Over the past 3 years Wilmers splits are still significantly better against lefties than Fraziers so the platoon is still viable. Wilmer has a 153 wRC+ versus Fraziers 127 wRC+. Wilmer has a higher avg, obp, slg, ops, low k%! Each of those by a significant margin of .050, its not extremely obvious…
I don’t think it’s that hard to fit Machado into the Cardinals’ lineup. The Orioles would probably have to take Gyorko and his salary, but that’s not a huge deal — Gyorko is a solid player. STL has some money to spend, but their last-minute signing of Holland had to have used up most of their available cash. A deal centered around Alex Reyes + Gyorko for Machado is a decent start — it wouldn’t be enough, but it’s not far off, and getting five years of Reyes would be a huge boon to Baltimore. Not many competitors have a 60 FV starter who is major-league ready and isn’t necessarily needed at the major league level.
STL could move DeJong to second or third base, where he better fits, have Machado play shortstop, and significantly upgrade their offense and infield defense. Carpenter would play wherever DeJong doesn’t. Wong would be the loser, but it’s only for one season, and Wong isn’t good enough to worry about losing playing time.
STL doesn’t make these types of moves unless desperate (Heyward), so I don’t think it’ll happen, but there’s a fit on the field and a fit with their farm system. The NL Central is winnable in 2018, and STL is in the perfect position on the win curve to get a star player.
This makes more sense to me than most of the other teams (apart from Cleveland) being discussed here. You could see the Cardinals deciding that the Cubs’ early-season weakness justified taking a shot like this.
Gyorko is owed $24 million over this year and the next two.
You’d have to dump an awful lot of salary, plus the huge prospect laundry list that the Orioles would want, before it makes any sense for them to take on $8 million more salary. Or, in other words (since the Orioles by definition do not need and cannot use Gyorko), you’d probably have to add another couple of prospects on to the trade.
I suspect this is not going to happen. This is not how rentals work.
Your numbers are wrong. Gyorko is owed $9 million in 2018 and $13 million in 2019. There’s a $1 million buyout in 2020. Machado is owed $16 million this season, meaning the Orioles would have to accept a maximum of $7 million, total, over two years. I think the Padres are paying STL for some of Gyorko’s contract, as well, which I assume would carry over to BAL. (EDIT: B-R has the Padres giving $2.5 million this year and $5 million next year, which completely balances the dollars.) In any case, the dollars are close enough that a deal can be worked out, with STL sending a few million for a couple of years or something.
If BAL just doesn’t want Gyorko (totally understandable), STL can find another team for Wong or Gyorko. They’ve got no qualms with dumping superfluous assets (Jaime Garcia, Matt Adams, Aledmys Diaz, Randal Grichuk, and Stephen Piscotty in just the last year or two). I think Alex Reyes + two 50 FV prospects gets the ball rolling towards a deal.
My main point is that Machado is a 100% perfect fit with STL, roster-wise, but I’m not sure they can absorb Machado’s entire 2018 salary after signing Holland (they can, but do they want to?).
putting alex reyes in a deal like this would be the most un-cardinals thing imaginable. sure, yeah, they’d be the favorites if they wanted to put a top 20 prospect on the table. but they won’t do that (nor, absent desperation caused by an injury, will anybody else i bet). if they were, i bet this would have been done three months ago.
No way the cards deal reyes even with the injury trouble for a rental.
Machado in Cleveland terrifies me.
but what do you hate?
Im not sure the Redsox are interested in a long term extension, but if they are… What about a Bogaerts/Machado swap? Would give the RS a Devers/Machado left side of infield long term (and a theoretical boost to their playoff chances).
Bogaerts, would give the Orioles a cheaper long term alternative to Machado. He’s already good, but if they believe in his altered approach at the plate (hitting more in the air), Bogaerts could give them a franchise player.
Addison Russell for Machado? If Macahdo doesn’t return in 2019, put Baez at SS and Happ at 2B.
But… if I’m BAL I want multiple prospects a year or 2 away to synchronize with a wider a rebuild.
This is the Orioles you are talking about. Nothing is inevitable.
Call me stupid (no really, go ahead) but I’ve never really grasped why the Orioles don’t just build their franchise around Machado? Does he not like it in Baltimore? That makes sense, I guess.
But why Chris Davis: YES! Keep him forever!
then Machado: Must be moved!
Basically, very poor long-term vision there.
Takes 2 to tango. Sure, if Baltimore offers Machado 40M a year for 10 years, then he’ll stay. But my guess is that he’s going to ask for more than they realistically want to pay him, especially since they kind of look like crap now, maybe he doesn’t want to stick around for a long rebuild.
One thing that’s widely neglected in the conversation is that Machado is currently a member of the Orioles. This means that they will insist on a package equivalent to Freeman + Acuna + Swanson + Albies + Inciarte + Gohara + Soroka, not get it, and let him leave as a free agent.
It’s funny, because it’s true. Hard to know *exactly* what Baltimore will want in exchange. We only know that it will be unreasonable.
Were I the Cardinals, I’d offer Carson Kelly plus a high-upside outfielder like Tyler O’Neill, plus multiple MLB-ready pitching prospects, e.g., Hicks, Hudson, Gomber, Gant…but NOT Alex Reyes unless Machado signs a long term extension as part of the deal, a la the Dickey trade of several years back. (Of course, if the O’s are enamored of Chance Sisco then Carson Kelly holds little appeal, so that scraps the deal right there.)
Curious if a Toronto trade makes sense. Something like bichette, Pearson and Pompey if Baltimore takes back like 15 mil a year of tulo too.
Wow. No. Just a whole lot of nope. I wouldn’t trade Bichette *or* Pearson for Machado. Why on earth would the Jays give away players with huge future upside and cost control for a couple of months of Manny?
Maybe if they were a leading contender for the World Series but had a glaring weakness at SS I could see making a deal that includes Pearson, but I’d still balk at any request for Bichette.
I… don’t see Machado getting trade tbh.
Baltimore will want a boatload of prospects for him (and rightly so) but I can’t see why any team would offer that when he will be a free agent at the end of the season. How much value could he possibly provide in a couple of months?
Would you be willing to trade *one* of your team’s top 5 prospects for a two month upgrade at SS? What about 2 of your top 20? On the other hand though, if you were the Orioles would you trade Machado for say, Harrison Bader and Oscar Mercado? Or Logan Warmoth and Yennsy Diaz?
Any trade I look at and think would be acceptable for the Orioles immediately looks like a terrible overpay for the other team. Anything that looks fair for the other team looks like something Baltimore would deem unacceptable.
Last year I could’ve seen a trade happening, when Machado still had over a year of control left. But this year? I think this off-season showed us how front offices regard wasting resources on assets that don’t have positive long term outlooks.
i like the seamless pivot from “and rightly so” to acknowledging that no, not rightly so, because in reality nobody will pay that. bravo.
Any chance that instead of getting prospects back, they try to dump Davis? I know that’s probably too sophisticated an idea for the Orioles (and they probably have an internal rule like “we don’t do salary dumps”) but what would they have to include with Machado and Davis in exchange for nothing?
Random thought: Machado, Davis, Sisco, and Gausman for somebody’s 30th best prospect?
That’s something they could do anytime, any team with an artificially low payroll due to rebuilding could justify taking on future salary considerations for the prospect return of Machado and gausman alone. Chris Davis is owed like 105 mil over 4.8 years, a team like the white Sox won’t even be paying top arb dollar to guys like kopech, jiminez, Robert, Hansen and other prospects or to guys like Anderson and Jones they lock up early.
If it’s a trade you can do anytime, it’s probably not a good trade.
The basic surplus value math might work, but I’m not sure about finding a team that would match up or the logic from the Orioles’ side.
Davis was a replacement level player last year and is off to a worse start than that this year. There’s a case to be made that a team would view the rest of his contract as close to 100% dead money. And, never mind a team’s other payroll commitments, it has to think that it can find a way to spend the $20+ million per year that it would paying Davis through 2022.
On the plus side to offset that dead money, you’re looking at <1 year of Machado (and the pro-rated amount of $16 million in salary), slightly less than 3 years of Gausman (at arb salaries starting at $5.6 million this year), plus Sisco. A problem for a team like the White Sox is that the wins this year mean next to nothing to them, as they're not a contender. If the idea is that they'll flip Machado and maybe Gausman, then they're logically taking some discount for the risk of what those trades return. Basically, you are talking about trading players (Machado, Gausman, and Sisco) that have varying appeal to teams with different timelines.
As for the Orioles, what's the point of dumping Davis' salary at a point where his value as a player is minimal when this trade would logically be committing them to a long and deep rebuild? If they're going to commit to a rebuild, I think the more logical route is simply to trade away Machado and Gausman, maximizing the value of each in separate deals, and simply keep Davis with the idea that they're eating that money through a rebuild.
Honestly what is a realistic trade for Machado? Everyone agrees he will be traded but no one is speculating on what kind of package he would receive. Dave Cameron suggest a couple months ago that I think would be a little more than the Ozuna trade. I agree with that Burbank everyone thinks he’s going to get a top 25 prospect. Here’s some fair deals imo. Let me know what you think
CLE: Yu Cheng, Shane Bieber, and Greg Allen
ARI gets Machado, NYY gets Corbin, BAL gets Adams-Clarke-Estrada
STL: Kelly, Hicks, Hudson
Ok. O’s fan here, and so a few things:
I will be wide mouthed, drooling, bring on a migraine so bad I need to lie down sort of surprised if Machado is traded anywhere in the AL East. It isn’t going to happen. So while I have no problem with the proposed trade ideas, repeat after me, folks: not gonna happen.
The best case for O’s fans would be for Manny to go somewhere like Cleveland, have the Indians win the World Series, and then sign with Philly or Atlanta (a Braves lineup of Ender Ozzie Manny Freddie Acuna is fun, don’t you think?) Which means it won’t happen, cause that’s how it goes for Orioles fans.
How it goes for Orioles fans is this: Manny has a monster, 8+ war, 175 or more wrc+ sort of year, is the MVP runner up despite an Orioles 100 loss 2018, and the Orioles keep him all year, get dick for him, offer him 400 for 10 and he turns it down and accepts slightly less from the Yankees. And then roughly 2 decades later goes into the HOF as a Yankee.
As a small correction…the Orioles have no problem developing pitchers. They have trouble keeping them. A list of pitchers the O’s have traded (or just given up on) over the past half decade: Hader, Miggy Gonzalez, ERod, Davies, Bridwell.
Welcome to the world of Peter Angelos.
A trade to a marginal contender might make sense early, since they could always flip Machado in July if they fall out of contention….sort of like the A’s tried to do with Holliday even though that turned out really badly. Brewers, Twins, Rockies, Mariners all seem to fit that description. Cleveland still seems like the best fit though.
What about the Dodgers? Turner’s rehab from the wrist injury sounds like it could take a while yet, and Corey Seager may be playingat less than 100% with his elbow injury possibly carrying over from last year. Add in the facts that Turner’s replacement in Logan Forsythe is injured, too, the Dodgers would probably be preventing their own division rival Diamondbacks from a substantial upgrade at SS, and the Dodgers’ still solid farm system from which they could put together a package, and it’s just so crazy it might work?
The problem is what you get now. Rental hitters do much worse on the market than rental pitchers. JDM went for basically nothing (think the best one was a 45 and then 2 40s or so). Now machado is younger but for a rental that hardly matters.
It still would be better to trade him but at this point the Os might consider to just take the comp pick because they believe the extra ticket he sells are worth more than the fringe prospects they might get.
Now if someone offers a top100 prospect they should do it but if it also is a 45 and 2 40s that is not that much better than the comp pick (Still better but not by a huge amount).
Also who really needs a ss,3b? Dodgers, Indians, angels, now even Yankees, Astros, cubs are all set. There are some teams who could use him (Rockies, mets,dbacks maybe) but i dont see anyone paying up for a rental.
At this point it probably doesnt matter whether they trade him. They probably still should but the return will only marginally help the rebuild. Should have traded him 2 years before.
Martinez wasn’t a stud at a premium position…
True, the market looks weak for him. But they have a way of materializing. I don’t doubt the Orioles are over-valuing Machado. But I don’t think it’s by as large of a margin as you think. Though I also do believe that the Oriole’s over valuing margin to be quite large.
The Jays are in a enviable position of being able to make this trade to try go for it now, and still have Vlad Jnr and Bichette rising up fast so they will in no way be compromised, they may even be able to keep one of JD or MM.
How would Colin Moran, Shane Baz and Taylor Hearn work for Baltimore?
This is a baseball website.
How do these employment scammers get comments posted?
What about the Angels? Their farm has gotten much better but it’s mostly guys with ETAs of 2020+ like Maitan, Adell, and Jahmai Jones. Maybe those 3, Barria, and Cozart/valbuena get it done with the high upside quantity offer. Plus they might be motivated to do keep him similarly to Upton.
If Im LAA, 2021 is doomsday. I do whatever it takes to get to the playoffs these last 3 years.