A Top 100 Tweak and Updated Rays Prospect List
I’ve made another small series of updates to the Top 100 Prospects list, which you can find on The Board. For the first time this season, I’ve reshuffled some of the names in the top 15 to 20 spots. Mostly, I’ve done some incremental reordering near the top based on health and current level of play. For example, Mets catcher Francisco Álvarez, who has kept his head above water after being thrust into the primary catching role in Flushing, has hopped over Jordan Walker, who’s struggling to get comfortable on both offense and defense down in Memphis. Neither player’s evaluation has had an overhaul — this is just a better representation of how things line up right now.
The biggest mover in the 60 FV tier is Diamondbacks center fielder Druw Jones, who falls toward the back of that group due to his quad strain and early-season strikeout issues. It could make sense for Jones to rehab in extended spring training or during the early part of the Complex League schedule and hit his way back to Visalia. It sounds like he will be back sooner than Phillies righty Andrew Painter, who remains at the very back of the 60 FV tier while he continues to rehab from a UCL injury.
Changes to the top of the 55 FV tier buoy the hitters who are performing toward the top of that group. The players from no. 14 to 18 overall (Marcelo Mayer, Brooks Lee, Endy Rodríguez, Brett Baty, Josh Jung) now stack ahead of Jordan Lawlar and Diego Cartaya, who are both striking out a lot at Double-A. The other changes within the 55 FV tier come toward the back of that group. Red Sox outfielder Miguel Bleis and Pirates infielder Termarr Johnson slide about 20 spots (the two of them were stacked at no. 19 and 20 overall), while Rays infielder Junior Caminero (who had been floating among the high-variance hitters in the back third of the 50 FV tier for about a year now) moves up from 110 overall.
This trio has huge tools and huge risk associated with strikeouts. Johnson is coming off a hamstring strain and struggling to get traction in the Florida State League, where he’s striking out 40% of the time even though the pitching isn’t very good. The oppo, slasher approach he showed against outer-edge pitches while he was in high school isn’t there right now, and he isn’t showing the same plate coverage he was last year. It’s possible Johnson has intentionally become more pull-oriented (I get it, it’s where his biggest power is), and it’s also possible he’s been rusty because of the time off due to the hamstring strain. Either way, I can’t have a guy striking out at a nearly 40% clip in the Florida State League ranked 20th overall. His FV grade hasn’t changed, he’s just slid behind players who are performing and/or are more proximate to the big leagues.
Bleis and Caminero both have hit tool risk derived from their lack of plate discipline. Caminero is hitting (like really, really hitting) right now, but at some point his lack of ball/strike recognition is going to have an impact on his output or force him to make an adjustment. That is already happening with Bleis, who is out of the gate slow at Low-A Salem. Both Caminero and Bleis have reassuring traits that not only make them exciting prospects, but make us optimistic they’ll succeed despite their epicurean approach to hitting. For one, to the naked eye they’re both ridiculously talented. Caminero has an Adonis-like build and plus-plus bat speed. Bleis swings with shocking verve for a skinny teenager. Both of these guys are also making about an average rate of in-zone contact, and in Bleis’ case it’s actually been better than that. These are characteristics that chase-prone stars like Bo Bichette, Luis Robert Jr., Adolis García, and other successful free swingers have shown in the minors. I’ve updated Caminero’s blurb on The Board; he’s the only player I’ve mentioned so far whose FV grade has actually changed.
There are two more additions. One is Reds shortstop Matt McLain, who moves into the Top 100 as his hit tool has taken a full grade leap from last year. He’s getting beaten by fastballs in on his hands far less often than he was last season, and he’s made a swing change that supports the on-paper improvement in this area. I go into the change more deeply in his updated blurb, but McLain’s stance and stride direction have both been more open this year, enabling him to better snatch pitches in on his hands than he was in 2022. Here’s a swing-and-miss last year compared to a ripped double this year, with screengrabs of his stance, as well as his body position as his front foot lands and at the point of contact:
His ability to turn on these pitches rather than swing underneath them has McLain making something closer to an average rate of in-zone contact for a big leaguer. Fold in playable power and viable shortstop defense, and you have a prospect similar to the Ezequiel Tovar and Oswald Peraza contingent near the very top of the 50 FV tier, a plug-and-play everyday major league shortstop.
Finally, the Atlanta Braves again have a Top 100 prospect as AJ Smith-Shawver moves into the 50 FV tier upon promotion to Triple-A. This isn’t like with Painter last year where by the time he had made a few Double-A starts, he had already shown polished usage of two more pitches than he was in April. Smith-Shawver still has a lot of key developmental checkpoints left to hit. His line to the plate, including often during his last start at Mississippi, can waiver all over the place and impact his fastball command. However, his feel for his curveball has leveled up since his first couple of starts, and his feel for locating his slider (which is often better than his fastball command) consistently gives him a go-to weapon that can miss a bat in a big spot. He still hasn’t allowed an earned run this year and is now the youngest player at Triple-A. There’s big long-term projection here because of the athletic and mechanical elements discussed throughout Smith-Shawver’s scouting report. That stuff carries a lot of weight in forecasting above-average command and a good changeup down the line. He’s now stacked near Cubs righty Ben Brown on the Top 100 list. Both are huge-framed late-bloomer types with two good breaking balls.
Updating the Rays list
The Rays farm system is extremely important to understand because they have the best record in baseball and play in a hotly contested division, making them likely deadline buyers. I’ve updated their prospect list over on The Board, which now includes notes collected from their extended spring training group as well as tweaks to some of the players who were already on there where I felt it was appropriate. They still flash impact tools and athletic ability, but Kameron Misner and Greg Jones are both striking out 40% of the time and need to slide. They fall into a 40+ FV tier that, aside from Cooper Kinney (healthy and making lots of contact, but still without a clear position) and Brailer Guerrero (who just signed), is full of players who are underachieving. Most of that FV tier either isn’t hitting (Mason Auer, Heriberto Hernandez, Willy Vasquez, Xavier Isaac) or is hurt/rehabbing (Nick Bitsko, Ian Seymour and Colby White, who a source saw sitting 92-94 mph with no strikes in extended spring training).
Triaging the names in that tier will be the most important Rays-related task to accomplish between now and the end of July. The upper-level hitters from that group felt like near-ready role-players during the offseason and they’re all face-planting so far. The group of players at Durham who’ve lost rookie eligibility, but who you might still consider “prospects” — Vidal Bruján, René Pinto, and Jonathan Aranda — are all more desirable in trade than anyone south of Kinney on the prospect list. Aranda especially could probably be an everyday stick for a lot of other teams.
Aside from Caminero’s ascent, there isn’t a clear riser in this system yet this year, and so the rest of the changes to the Rays list come via additions from the extended spring contingent on the complex. The added players are:
- Maikel Hernandez, SP
- Odalys Peguero, 2B
- Santiago Suarez, SP
- Enderson Delgado, C
- Willmer De La Cruz, SS
- Raudelis Martinez, C
You can identify this group quickly on the list by looking for action in the “Trend” column.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Xavier Isaac isn’t hitting? he has a 123 wRC+
Well yeah, he’s not hitting. It’s just walks. .232 average and .333 slugging. It’s all a a 21.5% walk rate in a league where pitchers can’t throw strikes.
he also has a .269 babip and has hit bombs. Seems like it’s easier to fix a batters aggression rather than whiff issues which he doesn’t seem to have.
buoyed by a 21% BB rate..that isn’t sustainable once he moves up the ladder and faces more pitching with better control.
It would be more defensible if he was projected to play second or third base, but he’s got a 20 speed grade and a 30 fielding grade at 1B. I don’t care that he’s 19, if a prospect running a .100 ISO in A-ball and surviving merely because the pitchers can’t throw strikes and their defensive ceiling is first base you’ve got a guy who is tracking as a Quad-A type and not a major leaguer.
Wait, so a guy who draws walks, doesn’t strike out much, and has no power – how did the Guardians let this guy get past them???
Because he can’t field, haha.
Oh, I know. He was a shock first round pick. I remember when he was picked, there were public-facing prospect lists that went all the way out to something like 250 or 300 names that didn’t have him and they were like “who is this?” This being the Rays, everyone starting fawning over the pick, but the early returns have not been promising.
Isaac was a well-known prep bat. If you look back to draft rankings before the 2022 summer, Isaac was usually inside the top 50-100. But he had some injuries that prevented him from participating in the bigger showcases/tournaments that summer/fall.
Because of that and the body/position, I think the industry just assumed he would go to college. The Rays pick was definitely surprising, but I wonder if they believe teams are underrating first baseman in the draft. They’ve taken a 1B on day 1 in back-to-back years now.
They will give him time to train and learn, and play.
Kyle Manzardo was a savvy pick; he absolutely raked and had everything you would need to hit in the majors while in college. He just needed time to adjust. Xavier Isaac isn’t like that at all. It could still turn out well but just because the Rays are doing something doesn’t mean it’s a good idea–they’re constantly experimenting with things and some of those things work better than others.
true
They get extra supplemental picks every year for being a small market team so it’s easy for them to take a non premium position guy if they really like them.
Your own publication seemed to barely know who he was so safe to call him not very well known
Thought the same thing, but it makes sense in the context of the more turnkey mentality required for national level coverage. If EL’s vehemently defending that line from a first round 1B only prospect, then he’s opening a whole can of worms
In Isaac’s defense: it’s often nice when a giant youth comes in making contact
Hitting more flyballs and fewer groundballs would do him some good too
Was hoping Jasson Dominguez would move into the 55FV tier after putting up a 125 wRC+ as a 20 year old in AA with good strikeout and swinging strike rates. Maybe on the next update.
I wouldn’t call that strikeout rate good at all, but I do think he probably deserves to be at least on the same level as Marcelo Mayer. He’s getting to a bit more power and while walk rates aren’t predictive, it’s better to run a higher walk rate than run a low one. And it’s in AA, which is where you can start to take minor league stats seriously.
Eh. The average strikeout rate is 25.3% in his league and he’s running a 23.7% K rate and above average swinging strike rates. Obviously he’s not Jose Altuve. But for his first month in AA as a 20 year old it’s good. He’s the age of a college sophomore putting up good stats in AA.
With a >20 BB% and a .221 ISO? As a 20 year old? A 23.7 K% is damn solid, and it’s been improving over time (19.8% in the last 100 PA).
But yeah, I honestly don’t understand a methodology that rates Mayer as a tier above Dominguez.
Mayer’s 3 months older, has more experience in competitive ball, is hitting for less power with half the BB/K at a lower level…and Dominguez is a switch hitter!
You make some good points.
Mayer is a good SS, Dominguez an OFer who might move to a corner. That’s a big difference
Also a lot of people more have more belief in Mayers hit tool
The SS thing, a less common LHH SS at that, is pretty big
Exactly I’m not sure why they are being compared.
Even if you assumed the exact same offense… the one doing it from SS should be a better prospect
Because they’re the same age. I think Mayer is only a couple months older? And while I don’t think Dominguez is a notably better prospect—I think they’re probably very close to each other, and almost certainly in the same tier—the fact that he’s doing it at AA matters a lot.
…why would you “assume the same offense,” haha?
The younger one (who’s a switch hitter, and has less experience in competitive baseball) is walking twice as much while striking out less and hitting for more power in AA.
What numbers are you referring to?
Mayer has a 150 wRC+ in A+ a year after putting up 125/150 in A Ball
Domínguez has put up 145/136/105 in his stops on A ball with 60/125 in AA
Mayer has hit the lower levels better and while it is impressive Domínguez has held his own in AA I suspect Mayer will do the same soon
I would say their offensive careers have similarly impressive, thus Mayer being a better prospect bc he’s doing it as a slam dunk SS
Happy to down the numbers to which I’m referring, sport!
When I say Dominguez is “younger than Mayer,” I’m referring to Dominguez’s date of birth.
Mayer was born in December 2002.
Jasson Dominguez was born in February 2003.
December 2002 happened before February 2003.
Therefore, Jasson Dominguez is younger than Marcelo Mayer.
When I say that Dominguez is currently walking twice as often as Mayer, I’m referring to a number called “BB%.”
Dominguez’s BB% is 20.7%. Mayer’s is 10.9%. 20.7/10.9=1.899, and I felt it would be a bit absurd to say “1.9 times as much,” when any reasonable adult would understand the phrase “twice as much” as an approximation.
Therefore, I said that Dominguez walks twice as much as Mayer.
When I say Dominguez is hitting for more power than Mayer, I’m referring to a number called “ISO,” which separates Slugging Percentage from Batting Average, in order to “isolate” a player’s ability to hit for power from their ability to hit for average.
Dominguez’s ISO is .221 and Mayer has a .212 ISO.
.221 is a larger number than .212.
Therefore, I said that Dominguez hits for more power than Mayer.
Why the downvotes, haha?
I was asked to explain “what numbers I [was] referring to” when I said that Dominguez is younger than Mayer, is walking twice as often as Mayer, is hitting for more power than Mayer, and is playing at a higher level than Mayer!
Did I not provide enough information?????
You explained it perfectly. In numbers that proved your point. And it was clear. Well done.
Mayer is outhitting Dominguez at a more premium position which is why he is ranked higher by every outlet
That…doesn’t address any of the points.
In case you missed it:
Mayer is older, has more competitive experience, is playing at a lower level, has half the BB/K, is hitting for less power, and isn’t a switch hitter.
It’s currently taking him an extra 40 points of BABIP to replicate Dominguez’s age-19 performance in A+z
While I did not vote on your comment, your command of snark (“sport!” among many example) seems better than your use of statistics.
The difference between an ISO of .221 and .212 is so negligible that only someone more concerned with winning argument than on the quality of evidence would suggest a .009 difference in ISO has any meaning, especially after just 120-140 PA.
In fact, with the addition of just one more game since you posted, Dominguez’s ISO dropped to .211 while Mayer’s rose to .231
If a difference in ISO of .009 in a short sample size means “more power” does Mayer’s current advantage of .020 USO now mean Mayer has massively more power?
No. Both players are showing equivalent power, so close that they may continue to see-saw for some time to come.
Dominguez is 57 days younger than Mayer. Is that difference meaningful? Can your provide evidence that is so? I am aware that significant age differences are associated with development potential, and over a large sample size of player, there is evidence that players who are years younger will tend to develop more than an otherwise equivalent group of older players. But 57 days difference in age when matching two players — is that significant? Perhaps the evidence exists. If so, please link to it.
Yes, Dominguez is in AA and Mayer in A+ and the difference in those levels is significant. Dominguez had 184 PA in A+ before being promoted; Mayer has had 249 PA in A+ and many expect a promotion to AA is soon approaching.
In writing this, I am not taking sides on the question of who is the better prospect. But I do question why you would mock someone else who is posting, then make claims that call into your question your use of statistics.
I get that the anonymity of a comments section tends to bring out the snark in people. But if you are going to bring the snark, perhaps you should arm your arguments with more than a pea-shooter.
I feel like it’s pretty fair to take the piss out of someone who couldn’t be arsed to look at either of their FG pages before commenting on FG, haha.
But yeah, the fact that Dominguez is a couple months younger than Mayer only really matters as an indicator of how silly the prospect fatigue around him is.
The significant thing is that Dominguez had similar A+ production to Mayer, while walking more and striking out significantly less, as a 19 year old.
And, as you pointed out, he was promoted sooner as well.
If you had friends, which I assume you don’t, and you said you were “the same age” as one that was 57 days younger than you, they probably wouldn’t correct you. Using the same “what adults would take that to mean” test.
On second thought, they probably would, as I can’t imagine anyone being friends with you unless they were similarly unbearably annoying.
You frequently get on your high horse and pretend you’re smarter than everyone over insignificant minutia, but you don’t even back it up with the attention to detail such a tact would require.
If you engaged others like an adult and didn’t have such an unearned high opinion of yourself, you wouldn’t constantly see those little red numbers after the majority of your comments.
You…clearly didn’t read the full post, haha.
I specifically pointed out that the fact that Dominguez is a couple months younger than Mayer only really matters in that it shows how much of the difference in perception comes down to Shiny New Toy syndrome, haha.
I then pointed out that what actually matters (as I had mentioned repeatedly above, while receiving nothing but goalpost shifting from Brock), is that Dominguez was notably more impressive in High-A last year than Mayer has been this year.
I’m explaining why you always get downvoted. Nobody really downvotes someone usually just because they disagree, it’s more about how you say something. If you come off as an ass. Anyway, it appears obvious that conversing with you is like wrestling a pig, you both get dirty, but the pig likes it. But please stop asking why you’re getting downvoted. Unless you are neurologically deficient, you clearly know why. It’s because you are an annoying, know-if-all who is the least interesting person in the room.
Sweetie…I don’t actually care if I’m downvoted by the idiots I mock.
After all, it’s quite easy to stop being mean and sarcastic when I log off…because the people I interact with in real life are nowhere near as bad at reading, thinking, and writing as your smug ass, haha.
“Oh, I really don’t care….[proceeds to write 50 more comments trying to be the cool guy].”
Also, it’s very rude of you to compare my conversations with folks here to wrestling with a pig in shit.
You only got involved now…which means the only person shitting on himself before wrestling me was Brock.
🥱
Anyway, mocking idiots on here is just my stress ball, so I don’t get too snippy with folks who actually matter to me.
And luckily there are some real idiots, here!
There was one guy spent like a full week ranting that Carlos Beltran would only have been a fringe HoF candidate at best, without the sign-stealing scandal, haha!
Another guy keeps insisting that Javy Vazquez had a comparable career to guys like Dave Cone, Roy Oswalt, Mark Buehrle, and Cole Hamels, and that Andy Pettitte is up there with Tom Glavine (which must mean he somehow thinks Zack Greinke hasn’t gotten to Pettitte’s level, yet!).
Shit, there’s one dumbass who repeatedly insists that guys like Jansen and Kimbrel are in the same range as Billy Wagner, haha!
Being able to concentrate all my daily stress at folks with a combination of ignorance, illiteracy and self-righteous I’ve rarely seen outside the confines of the Catholic Church is why I’m able to smile while dealing with customers who never listen, or getting injured playing beer league softball when an IF ignores the call on a pop up.
Thank you.
Do you want me to go into more depth?
I’m happy to explain why I referred to AA as a “higher level” than A+, if you’re confused!
Found da Jankees fan!
A) Sadtrombone isn’t a Yankees fan!
B) I’ve spent 20 years of my life in Boston – most Red Sox fans don’t need things like age, BB%, ISO, and minor league levels explained to them.
This is exactly right.
Beyond the fact that there’s nearly as much talk about Mayer moving to 3rd as Dominguez moving to RF…the positional difference is the only reason they should be rated similarly, haha!
Again: Dominguez is younger, a switch hitter, playing at a higher level, and has less game experience…and his peripherals WALLOP Mayer’s.
I didn’t look at Dominguez’s Da Numbahs until now but yeah, seems pretty savage himself. “What if George Springer could switch hit” kinda player, maybe?
Both seem pretty legit. If they are then feel free to sign with or be traded to Cubs at some point
Springer’s an interesting comp…but Springer didn’t solve AA until he was 23, haha.
He’s sorry that he was going to college until he was 21 years old
A) Springer reached AA at 22.
B) His underlying stats in the Cal League at 22 were significantly worse than Dominguez’s Hi-A numbers.
C) George Springer has had a great career, and Dominguez will be very fortunate if he has a similar one.
Guys that are down voting your comments should explain themselves, as you have to them. I don’t think there is any confusion in your statements.
I agree…but I do try to be sympathetic to folks who don’t know that FanGraphs.com is a website that contains baseball statistics!
I mean…Brock244 stands as a proud example that commenting on FG articles has NOTHING to do with petty concerns like “baseball” and “math.”
And that 125 wRC+ includes a brutally cold first week of the season – they literally went straight from Florida to freezing temps.
In Dominguez’s last 101 PA, he’s put up a 154 wRC+ with a 1.00 BB/K…and that’s despite a .259 BABIP.
I’d say the concern at this point is his .191 BA against righties. Hard to be successful while running a sub .200 BA against the majority of pitchers. (no idea what his BABIP is against them).
It’s literally just SSS BABIP shenanigans.
His BABIP against RHP is .212, in a 52 BIP sample size (it’s .385 against LHP, in 13 BIP)…and he still has a .792 OPS against them, haha.
He’s historically been significantly better against RHP than LHP, as well.
Jaysus, some of these downvotes.
I assume the guy offended by my providing historical context to explain why I view a 52 BIP sample size as non-representative is the same one who demanded that I explain my claims that 2003>2002, that 20/10=2, and that .221>.212, haha.
I appreciated all the info you provided in your posts. Bizarre amount of downvotes. I’m not often on Fangraphs comment section, are the people usually this cranky here?
Cranky is normal…but folks usually have enough self-respect to reply to someone with whom they disagree!
Maybe salty Red Sox fans, furious that I don’t “assume the exact same offense” from a guy who put up a 149 wRC+ with a .404 BABIP and a .45 BB/K at age 20 and a switch hitter who put up a 145 wRC+ with a .353 BABIP and a .68 BB/K at 19, haha?
I’ve obviously been pretty acerbic…but I’m still waiting on someone to actually engage with and refute the underlying premise that folks rating Mayer definitively above Dominguez results from a combination of prospect fatigue and shiny new toy syndrome.
You’re being downvoted because you were being a jerk, not because of the argument you’re making.
People have also responded to your basic argument — Mayer is a tier above Jasson because of positional value and defensive abilities. Jasson is a big dude and might not be a CF at all or for long, Mayer looks like a sure-thing SS. Both guys have a mix of encouraging young-for-level performance and swing issues that could drag their performance down as they climb the ladder. You can reasonably disagree with that, but it’s not like there’s some great mystery here.
Oh, “jerk” is quite a mild term for who I’ve been treating Brock, haha.
At the same time…how much respect is it appropriate to show someone who equates a 144 wRC+ from a 20 year old with a .47 BB/K to a 145 wRC+ from a 19 year old with a .65 BB/K?
…and then cites the 20 year old being a lefty as a differentiator from the 19 year old switch hitter 😂
Strange that Pipeline just updated their rankings with Walker at #1 given his struggles at AAA. Not sure he should be out of the top 10 here but this ranking feels much closer to reality.
I think Walker has probably topped out his prospect ranking at this point. He’s still an FV60, a very good prospect, but if he starts raking he’ll be back in the majors and he’ll exhaust his rookie eligibility.
I still think there’s a lot of early-career Jose Martinez here, but it would definitely help his case if he could play a corner outfield spot (or third base, but that won’t happen on the Cardinals).
Wow, Jose Martinez. Nice reference, had a lot of dust on that name but you’re right, he was looking good for a time. It’s amazing how long some of these old nearly no show guys stick around in one’s memory because they’re lauded over for years.
On the Walker hitting streak article, I noted that the book on him was pretty straightforward: He has huge arms and huge power, a lot of strikeouts, and he hits the ball on the ground too much. He’s the kind of guy who is always going to have to pick and choose between hitting the ball on the ground more often than is optimal or not hitting the ball at all.
Occasionally a guy like this becomes a star, like Giancarlo Stanton, but mostly these types of guys don’t become 5+ win monsters unless they’re also defensive aces. The guys who match this description are Jose Martinez, Domingo Santana, Nathaniel Lowe, Miguel Sano, Jorge Soler, and Alec Bohm. You can see how typically, they figured out a way to make it work but it’s hard to sustain, either because what they’re doing is hard or because they can’t keep it up when they get to their late 20s or early 30s. Jose Martinez from 2017-2018 is probably one of the more positive versions of this archetype, a guy who manages to run higher than normal BABIPs by smashing the ball even if he doesn’t hit that many home runs.
And Stanton was a defensive ace, when he was a 5+ win monster.
Jose Martinez was a top prospect?
No, just a name drop that brought me back a bit about guys coming up out of the Cardinal system that looked like they were going to be impact bats. Not necessarily Jordan Walker level in terms of prospect shine, but there were expectations that didn’t pan out for sure.
Jeez whatever happened to Jose Martinez? He was really good for me in fantasy when he first came up. That’s truly a name I forgot about and I haven’t thought about in a long time.
Update: Playing in Mexico! Also, I did not realize he was already 34-years-old.
Yeah, he got traded with Arozarena to the Rays and completely flamed out. Then he kept getting hurt, getting released, and signing with a new team to repeat it. According to the internet he’s been in the Mexican League for a year now.
I think Eric is absolutely right that Jackson Holliday is the best prospect who isn’t already in the majors, and I frankly wonder about prospect analysts who are doing things like putting Jordan Walker ahead of him. Holliday looks like he has solved high-A at 19 and might be heading to AA soon. If he solves AA too, then he’s an FV65 and very likely the best prospect in baseball.
The only other two guys who I think have a real shot to end the year at FV65 are James Wood and Jackson Chourio, and I don’t see how they get there right now. Both of them clearly have hit tool problems and need to show they can solve AA and the jury is definitely out on both (Wood isn’t even at that level yet). Realistically, both are probably still a year away from showing that. And beyond them, virtually the entire group of FV60s are going to graduate soon, or are probably going to graduate as FV60s because they are pitchers or their profile is weird even though they are performing (hello, Elly De La Cruz!).
Agreed on Holliday. He’s the #1 prospect in baseball. If the Orioles ever spend money, they’re going to be great in a couple years. I bet they try to manipulate service time with him but really they should move him up to AA soon and call him up straight from AA if he mashes like the Nationals did with Juan Soto.
I’ve been trying to think of a comp for him and I’ve just been totally blanking. But whatever he is, he’s gonna be good. Obviously we don’t have a clue about his durability but you can throw a huge number of good-hitting shortstops as comps out there and it sounds normal. Derek Jeter? Why not? Xander Bogaerts? Sounds good to me. Troy Tulowitzki? Hard to compare because of Coors, but it’s not obviously crazy. Carlos Correa? Sure.
I don’t think he’s got the power projection of a guy like Hanley Ramirez or the defense of Francisco Lindor (you could put Cal Ripken Jr or Nomar Garciaparra in both of those categories, funny enough) or the speed of Trea Turner. But we’re talking about an all-star caliber shortstop here.
De La Cruz’s profile looks a hell of a lot more sustainable with that 13% walk rate.
I said this before, but I really am starting to think that Joey Gallo is the right comp for him at the plate. If he tries to pull this in the major leagues on MLB pitching and defenses he’s going to run a .200 batting average but he’ll hit 30 bombs and his OBP will be acceptable. Patrick Wisdom is kind of like this too. And early-career Miguel Sano, too.
I think the risk of him being a Jorge Alfaro-like or Bobby Dalbec-like mess is mostly off the table at this point. And while I’m still not convinced he’s a shortstop, he’s athletic enough that at the minimum he should be able to be kind of like Jonathan Villar on defense and play a ton of positions badly. There are a lot of different ways for him to succeed, so I think he will, even if the chances of everything clicking for him in every phase of the game is not likely.
Yeah, the discipline he’s added this year really changes the game for him, in terms of my expectations.
Chourio is hitting .270 in AA and turned 19 just before the year started. Its May. Can a guy get an adjustment period here dude?? He’s show pop, and speed, and defense, and the bat is catching fire.
Also, Walker was a good player in the big leagues before turning 21, and was sent down anyways. So he’s probably still trying to sort that out mentally. If he was just plugged into a full-time DH role, or given first base to run with… there would be NO problem. He did not K a lot in the majors, nor has he in AAA.
I’m with you on Holliday, though, but to me Chourio has been fine in AA. Who wouldn’t assume some struggle there? He’s being pushed and I’ll just let the year unfold as it will.
Walker was below replacement in the majors before being sent down, and had a 0.15 BB/K.
But yeah, Chourio’s AA performance to date has been solid, and trending in the right direction to boot.
his ops+ was 98. If he played 1B or DH, he was fine. First month in the bigs, very solid
A) He needed a .353 BABIP to get there.
B) When he had a .304 BABIP in his second 10 games, he had a 33 wRC+.
C) A 98 OPS+ is below replacement level for a DH…and Walker’s defense was below DH standard, haha.
D) I believe in Walker. He just needs time to figure out his defense and approach without the pressure of the Cardinals’ season spiraling down the drain.
Ya if the Cardinals get back in the race I bet Walker stays in the minors the full year. If they fall out then he will get into the majors…..assuming he hits in AAA
Exactly – Walker’s current situation is why AAA is.
For better or worse.
I think the most promising thing about Chourio isn’t just that he’s doing it, it’s that he’s doing it in that league with the crazy pre-tacked ball.
I think he’s likely going to end the year as one of the Top 5 prospects in the game, and I would guess in the Top 3 unless Elly De La Cruz and Eury Perez don’t graduate. I also don’t think he’s going to be in the same class as Holliday unless he really turns it on. Holliday is only 3 months older than Chourio but I think he’s going to outperform him in AA.
Yeah, I think Walker should be further down below the top 10. He has fairly significant swing issues, and his league-worst defense was alarming. It’s not like he’s entirely new to the outfield — he had a month or so of games in the minors in the outfield and a full offseason to train. I know STL tried him in CF for a few games last season — I can’t imagine what those four games looked like!
There is obviously huge upside in Walker’s bat, but because of serious questions about both sides of his game, I’d put a lot of prospects ahead of him.
He’s probably going to be fine, and there’s still room for him to be a star. When guys have power like that and aren’t obviously failing, you need to give them a long runway. Can’t ever give up on a guy with that kind of power.
Also, absolutely all of the ways he could fail are the same as they were a year ago are still there. They’re just as likely as before. Not what you want for a guy in AAA.
Orioles currently have the 2nd best record in the entire mlb (also their division). If this were to hold I think a fun game to play is what would Holliday get coming back? I don’t really analyze prospect trades but it would have to be a ton, right?
He won’t be traded. To me, that’s fun.
Braves just promoted A.J. Smith-Shawver to AAA after pitching only 7 innings at AA. One wonders if the Braves hope he can be ready to contribute at the MLB level much more quickly than anyone was expecting.
The Braves are one of the most aggressive teams for things like that, so I wouldn’t put it past them to try. And he looks fantastic.
I will never question the Braves assessment of where to best place their young talent. There belief is “If they are ready, they are ready” and Smith-Shawver is following Harris and Strider on the fast track to The Show. I would not be surprised to see him in Atlanta by the All-Star break.
I think his promotion might have something to do with the sticky ball that is being tested in the southern league, and how that affects his metrics.
It does seem like some guys who had red flags before the year began are kind of a mess, too. I thought Diego Cartaya, Tyler Soderstrom, and Jackson Merrill were really overrated and definitely deserve a reassessment at this point. Kyle Harrison too; I always wondered how he was going to hack it if he couldn’t throw strikes, and while it’s a small sample size there should be alarm bells going off all over the place.
One guy I think I might have been wrong about was Marcelo Mayer; I thought his hit tool is overrated and he should have been a 50. Let’s see how he does at AA, but he is doing what we would expect a top prospect to do.
I’d throw Ceddanne Rafaela in there too. It’s looking like his approach may be a real issue.
I was at last night’s Yard Goats-Sea Dogs game and I will reinforce your comment strongly. Rafaela looked overmatched by Double-A pitching. He took an ugly 0-5 with a couple of weak infield bloopers and a pair of K’s. Small Sample Size, of course, but there just weren’t any positive hints that he could handle what he was facing.
Harrison’s going to be excellent still
A couple other guys doing well–I know that a lot of Pirates fans were bemoaning the fact that their team took Henry Davis over Marcelo Mayer and Jordan Lawlar but he looks like the guy we expected him to be. Solving AA is a big deal; I don’t know if he’s going to be able to catch full time but he looks like a middle of the order bat to me.
I think I might like Matt McLain almost as much as Elly De La Cruz? I’ve always kind of been a fan of McLain and been a little down on Elly De La Cruz but this isn’t because EDLC is doing badly or anything. I mean, it’s pretty clear that De La Cruz is a major leaguer of some kind, and the possibility of him being “Joey Gallo at shortstop” is something I’ve thought about more than once; he’s clearly an FV60. But McLain looks like a certainty to handle shortstop so his floor is high, and if his hit tool is back online we’re looking at a 4+ win player.
I love the idea of Pirates splitting time between Endy and Henry at the major league level, keeping them both fresh and DH’ing them other days (or even other positions with Endy!). So hopefully Davis doesn’t have to worry about catching fulltime. He does look great so far, though.
Mark Vientos..?
In 150 AAA games at 22 & 23, all Vientos has done is OPS 942 with 40 HRs… can’t get any attention from the prospect community tho.
He entered the season as a 45, as a 1B who struck out ~30% of the time in AAA last year.
If the new K-rate is real, he could definitely be something.
Been absolutely destroying baseballs since 2021 being extremely young at every level. Contact has always been uncertain but the ceiling was always high/wide variance in outcome… but I feel like others with similar high ceiling/risk profile have gotta lot more recognition. Maybe lack of good secondary skills holds him back. Def a potential 35 HR bat tho.
Main thing is that his defensive projection means he HAS to be a 120 wRC+ guy to be a regular, which is hard to project when a guy has contact issues.
(But, again…if those contact issues are sorted, he’s a DUDE!)
Vientos plays a better 3B than I expected. He is nowhere near as stiff as he was a couple years back. I’m not saying he is an all star 3B but he’s playable.
Not sure that’s true considering the general consensus is that he might not even stick at 1B, let alone 3B
The general consensus was also that Suwinski didn’t have the athleticism for 1B, and that Gunnar Henderson is the second coming of Machado at 3B.
We never know anything definitive until we get that RAA data.
Interesting – wonder if he’s dropped some muscle to get twitchier – could explain the contact improvements, too.
I understand why you wouldn’t boost Chandler Simpson yet, but his start has been encouraging. I like how the Rays made an aggressive decision by moving him to center this year, which suits his profile better. Looks like they made some swing adjustments to allow him to consistently spray the ball line to line. I think he’s top 10 in the minors for swinging strike rate, and there’s a good chance he steals over 100 bags this year. It’s only A ball for an ACC bat, so we’re in wait-and-see mode for now, but I’m really interested to see how Simpson progresses in this system.
Idk what FV tier he lands in, but certain organizations tend to figure out a role for quirky profiles like this, and the Rays are definitely one of them. Somewhat reminiscent of Billy Hamilton. Hamilton didn’t sustain a starting role in the majors, but the value he provided was above a 35+ FV.
The Dominic Keegan disrespect
Hi Eric, I’m curious whether another guy on the verge of the Majors, Jordan Westburg, also merits consideration for an upgrade to a 50 FV given what he’s done so far in AAA this year.
Yeah, wow. 12 Bombs, lots of other hits, and taking his walks. With good fielding numbers at 2-3-and SS. Too bad the O’s are loaded at those spots, but he’ll be up soon regardless.
I said this before but if the Orioles are interested in getting to a guy before he hits the free agent market, they should really call up the White Sox and see if they would trade Giolito for Westburg. Just on surplus value it’s a bad deal for the Orioles but they need pitching so badly I would do it anyway.
Weird that you moved Endy Rodriguez up but left Henry Davis where he was. Endy has had some injury time, has put up very average (98 wRC+) hitting stats and has also had some defensive issues in AAA. Davis has looked better at catcher in AA aside from some continued framing concerns and has absolutely mashed putting up a 197 wRC+ with 9 dingers in 129 PAs. I still think Endy is going to be really good but Davis should be the one moving on lists, imo.
Wasn’t clear if you also did any re-ordering of the 50 tier, but Mauricio would have to move up within the tier if so. His big winter league play has certainly carried over to AAA… and at just 22.
Another 3 hits tonight… OPS now over 1.000 in 186 PAs… just turned 22… all people keep saying is “but he doesn’t walk enough!” Come on.
It’s not that he doesn’t walk enough, it’s that approach) (or lack thereof) could get abused by MLB command
I know that’s what most are focused on.. when they should be focused on the overwhelming positives instead…. he’s dominating AAA while being one of the youngest players at that level. He’s got the rare power/speed combo at a premium defensive and for a bonus, he switch hits.
So, sure he isn’t perfect… who is? Point is that he just turned 22, which means it’s very likely that he isn’t fully developed… and he’ll develop a better eye. The far bigger hurdle to succeeding in the majors is making enough contact. But Ronny Mauricio has one of the lowest K rates in the IL. He’s also leading all of minor league baseball with 20 doubles (in 44 games).
The team lists grow less and less useful the slower they are to come out, and this year’s pace is substantially slower than last year (which didn’t see the final team lists come out until July).
Last year there were 19 team lists done by the end of April, then 4 in May, 3 in June, and 4 in July.
This year we are 60% done with May and only 13 full team lists have been done.
At a point it isn’t worth considering them “annual” lists because the information gap between one team completed in December and another completed in July is enormous. At a point it’s better to just call them what they are, an occasional check-in on specific teams scattered throughout an 8 or 9 month period from November to July.
They are still interesting articles, and I still read them and let Fangraphs serve me some ads for doing so. But for the many of us who choose deep league fantasy baseball as a hobby, a good writeup that arrives before opening day is better than a great writeup that arrives in June or July. My league Discords have heated discussions about a dozen different prospect sites, and Fangraphs has become an afterthought of “oh, FG finally got around to doing the Mets” where it used to be THE most important resource for prospect info period.
Thanks again for the work you do, Eric. The quality is exceptional and always has been.
Agree. Team A prospect list being out out before the season, and Team B putting out months into the season just doesn’t work
Well said. Eric’s expertise is exceptional. But each year, Fangraphs falls farther behind delivering timely prospect content, losing clicks to a growing number of websites that push content when it’s useful to fantasy players.
Making matters worse, Fangraphs promised a shortcut earlier this year to remedy that gap, then failed to deliver. On March 24th, Fangraphs published the first in what it said would be a series of “imminent big leaguers” reports.
In the subsequent two months, Fangraphs has published five more imminent big leaguers reports with 10 more teams not reported on at all. At this rate, the last of the imminent big leaguers reports will be published in the latter part of October, just in time for the start of the World Series.
I know what it’s like having to balance goals, budgets and time, something I’ve done for daily print journalism and documentary-length investigations for network television. It is always challenging, sometimes exceptionally so. You need an editorial team that prioritizes, separating the must-haves from the like-to-haves, creating schedules that are achievable, and adjusting as needs and resources evolve.
It’s pretty telling that something is off when enough time has passed that a team that was covered earlier needs a significant update before half the teams get their first report.
… and, for me and just my opinion… I’m less interested in a reordering of the top 100 than I am in reading the unpublished lists. Both in terms of real life baseball impact (as the prospects lists give me info on dudes to look out for when I catch minor league games live) as well as fantasy baseball.
Great update as always… shouldn’t Dodd be on The Board since he’s 50 FV from the last update?
Colton Cowser should be added to the board. Dude is dominating AAA
One other recent development: Jack Leiter is looking like he’s flipped a switch since the calendar turned to May. Small sample abounds and he’s repeating the level, of course. But it’s been a much more dominant month than we’ve seen from him so far in pro ball.
The Rays are RP buyers this year. They’re losing games late.
To the extent that they are losing games at all? Yes, that is true.
Well they’ve only lost 13 times
Bryce Miller @ #70(very small sample size, but doing historic things in his first three MLB starts) with 15 other pitchers ahead of him seems……..low?
He doesn’t think he’s as good as you do, so he has to rate him lower than you do.
Don’t worry Drew Gilbert, maybe these lists will learn eventually about undervaluing Astros prospects.
Yes, always rank them high.
Luis Matos should be back on this list. Just promoted to AAA after putting up 137 wRC+ as a 21 year old in AA with more walks than strikeouts. Also at least an average defender in CF. Wouldn’t be surprised if he makes it to the majors this year and is a solid contributor in 2024.
I’m enjoying Jackson Hollliday’s career minor league on-base percentage of .502 thus far. This is in 237 trips to the plate.
Why did McLain’s projected contact ability drop from a 60 to 45? Glad his current grade jumped up, but odd that his projection dropped so much at the same time.
Wow some of debate here. In regards for the old for their level debate. Everyone needs to keep in mind the extent of the impact of the pandemic on player development. From high school to college to minors there were very few games being played. Then the shortened draft. Then throw in contraction on top of that there has been major changes and it’s going to take some time for player development to normalize and process the players impacted..
It would be interesting to do a FV evaluation of the difference between prospects that were complex players vrs those that basically put down a baseball for a year to see if there was a measurable difference.
Really important point – the 2020 and 2021 classes are essentially on the same developmental timeline.
Another Met, Mike Vasil is having a breakout season and has to have leapt into the 50 tier now.
As a Mets fan, it’s nice to have a pitching prospect again!
More important is he may be able to add to the rotation down the stretch