A Top 100 Tweak and Updated Rays Prospect List

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

I’ve made another small series of updates to the Top 100 Prospects list, which you can find on The Board. For the first time this season, I’ve reshuffled some of the names in the top 15 to 20 spots. Mostly, I’ve done some incremental reordering near the top based on health and current level of play. For example, Mets catcher Francisco Álvarez, who has kept his head above water after being thrust into the primary catching role in Flushing, has hopped over Jordan Walker, who’s struggling to get comfortable on both offense and defense down in Memphis. Neither player’s evaluation has had an overhaul — this is just a better representation of how things line up right now.

The biggest mover in the 60 FV tier is Diamondbacks center fielder Druw Jones, who falls toward the back of that group due to his quad strain and early-season strikeout issues. It could make sense for Jones to rehab in extended spring training or during the early part of the Complex League schedule and hit his way back to Visalia. It sounds like he will be back sooner than Phillies righty Andrew Painter, who remains at the very back of the 60 FV tier while he continues to rehab from a UCL injury.

Changes to the top of the 55 FV tier buoy the hitters who are performing toward the top of that group. The players from no. 14 to 18 overall (Marcelo Mayer, Brooks Lee, Endy Rodríguez, Brett Baty, Josh Jung) now stack ahead of Jordan Lawlar and Diego Cartaya, who are both striking out a lot at Double-A. The other changes within the 55 FV tier come toward the back of that group. Red Sox outfielder Miguel Bleis and Pirates infielder Termarr Johnson slide about 20 spots (the two of them were stacked at no. 19 and 20 overall), while Rays infielder Junior Caminero (who had been floating among the high-variance hitters in the back third of the 50 FV tier for about a year now) moves up from 110 overall.

This trio has huge tools and huge risk associated with strikeouts. Johnson is coming off a hamstring strain and struggling to get traction in the Florida State League, where he’s striking out 40% of the time even though the pitching isn’t very good. The oppo, slasher approach he showed against outer-edge pitches while he was in high school isn’t there right now, and he isn’t showing the same plate coverage he was last year. It’s possible Johnson has intentionally become more pull-oriented (I get it, it’s where his biggest power is), and it’s also possible he’s been rusty because of the time off due to the hamstring strain. Either way, I can’t have a guy striking out at a nearly 40% clip in the Florida State League ranked 20th overall. His FV grade hasn’t changed, he’s just slid behind players who are performing and/or are more proximate to the big leagues.

Bleis and Caminero both have hit tool risk derived from their lack of plate discipline. Caminero is hitting (like really, really hitting) right now, but at some point his lack of ball/strike recognition is going to have an impact on his output or force him to make an adjustment. That is already happening with Bleis, who is out of the gate slow at Low-A Salem. Both Caminero and Bleis have reassuring traits that not only make them exciting prospects, but make us optimistic they’ll succeed despite their epicurean approach to hitting. For one, to the naked eye they’re both ridiculously talented. Caminero has an Adonis-like build and plus-plus bat speed. Bleis swings with shocking verve for a skinny teenager. Both of these guys are also making about an average rate of in-zone contact, and in Bleis’ case it’s actually been better than that. These are characteristics that chase-prone stars like Bo Bichette, Luis Robert Jr., Adolis García, and other successful free swingers have shown in the minors. I’ve updated Caminero’s blurb on The Board; he’s the only player I’ve mentioned so far whose FV grade has actually changed.

There are two more additions. One is Reds shortstop Matt McLain, who moves into the Top 100 as his hit tool has taken a full grade leap from last year. He’s getting beaten by fastballs in on his hands far less often than he was last season, and he’s made a swing change that supports the on-paper improvement in this area. I go into the change more deeply in his updated blurb, but McLain’s stance and stride direction have both been more open this year, enabling him to better snatch pitches in on his hands than he was in 2022. Here’s a swing-and-miss last year compared to a ripped double this year, with screengrabs of his stance, as well as his body position as his front foot lands and at the point of contact:

His ability to turn on these pitches rather than swing underneath them has McLain making something closer to an average rate of in-zone contact for a big leaguer. Fold in playable power and viable shortstop defense, and you have a prospect similar to the Ezequiel Tovar and Oswald Peraza contingent near the very top of the 50 FV tier, a plug-and-play everyday major league shortstop.

Finally, the Atlanta Braves again have a Top 100 prospect as AJ Smith-Shawver moves into the 50 FV tier upon promotion to Triple-A. This isn’t like with Painter last year where by the time he had made a few Double-A starts, he had already shown polished usage of two more pitches than he was in April. Smith-Shawver still has a lot of key developmental checkpoints left to hit. His line to the plate, including often during his last start at Mississippi, can waiver all over the place and impact his fastball command. However, his feel for his curveball has leveled up since his first couple of starts, and his feel for locating his slider (which is often better than his fastball command) consistently gives him a go-to weapon that can miss a bat in a big spot. He still hasn’t allowed an earned run this year and is now the youngest player at Triple-A. There’s big long-term projection here because of the athletic and mechanical elements discussed throughout Smith-Shawver’s scouting report. That stuff carries a lot of weight in forecasting above-average command and a good changeup down the line. He’s now stacked near Cubs righty Ben Brown on the Top 100 list. Both are huge-framed late-bloomer types with two good breaking balls.

Updating the Rays list

The Rays farm system is extremely important to understand because they have the best record in baseball and play in a hotly contested division, making them likely deadline buyers. I’ve updated their prospect list over on The Board, which now includes notes collected from their extended spring training group as well as tweaks to some of the players who were already on there where I felt it was appropriate. They still flash impact tools and athletic ability, but Kameron Misner and Greg Jones are both striking out 40% of the time and need to slide. They fall into a 40+ FV tier that, aside from Cooper Kinney (healthy and making lots of contact, but still without a clear position) and Brailer Guerrero (who just signed), is full of players who are underachieving. Most of that FV tier either isn’t hitting (Mason Auer, Heriberto Hernandez, Willy Vasquez, Xavier Isaac) or is hurt/rehabbing (Nick Bitsko, Ian Seymour and Colby White, who a source saw sitting 92-94 mph with no strikes in extended spring training).

Triaging the names in that tier will be the most important Rays-related task to accomplish between now and the end of July. The upper-level hitters from that group felt like near-ready role-players during the offseason and they’re all face-planting so far. The group of players at Durham who’ve lost rookie eligibility, but who you might still consider “prospects” — Vidal Bruján, René Pinto, and Jonathan Aranda — are all more desirable in trade than anyone south of Kinney on the prospect list. Aranda especially could probably be an everyday stick for a lot of other teams.

Aside from Caminero’s ascent, there isn’t a clear riser in this system yet this year, and so the rest of the changes to the Rays list come via additions from the extended spring contingent on the complex. The added players are:

You can identify this group quickly on the list by looking for action in the “Trend” column.





Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.

142 Comments
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nicktown
10 months ago

Xavier Isaac isn’t hitting? he has a 123 wRC+

steveo
10 months ago
Reply to  nicktown

Well yeah, he’s not hitting. It’s just walks. .232 average and .333 slugging. It’s all a a 21.5% walk rate in a league where pitchers can’t throw strikes.

Last edited 10 months ago by steveo
nicktown
10 months ago
Reply to  steveo

he also has a .269 babip and has hit bombs. Seems like it’s easier to fix a batters aggression rather than whiff issues which he doesn’t seem to have.

PC1970
10 months ago
Reply to  nicktown

buoyed by a 21% BB rate..that isn’t sustainable once he moves up the ladder and faces more pitching with better control.

sadtrombonemember
10 months ago
Reply to  PC1970

It would be more defensible if he was projected to play second or third base, but he’s got a 20 speed grade and a 30 fielding grade at 1B. I don’t care that he’s 19, if a prospect running a .100 ISO in A-ball and surviving merely because the pitchers can’t throw strikes and their defensive ceiling is first base you’ve got a guy who is tracking as a Quad-A type and not a major leaguer.

Left of Centerfield
10 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Wait, so a guy who draws walks, doesn’t strike out much, and has no power – how did the Guardians let this guy get past them???

Cool Lester Smoothmember
10 months ago

Because he can’t field, haha.

sadtrombonemember
10 months ago

Oh, I know. He was a shock first round pick. I remember when he was picked, there were public-facing prospect lists that went all the way out to something like 250 or 300 names that didn’t have him and they were like “who is this?” This being the Rays, everyone starting fawning over the pick, but the early returns have not been promising.

Brian Recca
10 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Isaac was a well-known prep bat. If you look back to draft rankings before the 2022 summer, Isaac was usually inside the top 50-100. But he had some injuries that prevented him from participating in the bigger showcases/tournaments that summer/fall.

Because of that and the body/position, I think the industry just assumed he would go to college. The Rays pick was definitely surprising, but I wonder if they believe teams are underrating first baseman in the draft. They’ve taken a 1B on day 1 in back-to-back years now.

casey jmember
10 months ago
Reply to  Brian Recca

They will give him time to train and learn, and play.

sadtrombonemember
10 months ago
Reply to  Brian Recca

Kyle Manzardo was a savvy pick; he absolutely raked and had everything you would need to hit in the majors while in college. He just needed time to adjust. Xavier Isaac isn’t like that at all. It could still turn out well but just because the Rays are doing something doesn’t mean it’s a good idea–they’re constantly experimenting with things and some of those things work better than others.

casey jmember
10 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

true

steveo
10 months ago
Reply to  Brian Recca

They get extra supplemental picks every year for being a small market team so it’s easy for them to take a non premium position guy if they really like them.

David Gerth
10 months ago
Reply to  Brian Recca

Your own publication seemed to barely know who he was so safe to call him not very well known

SenorGato
10 months ago
Reply to  nicktown

Thought the same thing, but it makes sense in the context of the more turnkey mentality required for national level coverage. If EL’s vehemently defending that line from a first round 1B only prospect, then he’s opening a whole can of worms

SenorGato
10 months ago
Reply to  SenorGato

In Isaac’s defense: it’s often nice when a giant youth comes in making contact

Hitting more flyballs and fewer groundballs would do him some good too

Last edited 10 months ago by SenorGato