A Year Without Marcus Stroman

This time, at least, it’s a little different. Yu Darvish sustained an injury while pitching. Cliff Lee sustained an injury while pitching. Gavin Floyd, Masahiro Tanaka, Jose Fernandez, Matt Harvey, so many of the others — they sustained their injuries while pitching. Marcus Stroman sustained an injury while fielding. His throwing arm is completely fine. His throwing arm, also, is completely useless to him at the moment, because you can’t pitch through a torn ACL. The freak injury will knock Stroman out for the duration of 2015, and though he should be good to go after that, the calendar says “2015” right now, and we’ll be without something we all thought we’d have. Stroman, like the others, has been taken from his team, and he’s been taken from the game.

There’s also that other twist. Darvish is a devastating loss, but then, the Rangers didn’t seem particularly poised to challenge for the playoffs. Lee would be another devastating loss, but even with him healthy, the Phillies looked like a mess. Floyd was just re-injured, and the Indians could win the AL Central, but the Indians also have a ton of pitching depth, and they knew Floyd was a risk. The Blue Jays had dreams of winning the World Series. Stroman figured to be the No. 1, and the team didn’t look deep with him. This is a massive blow, and it’s a massive blow to a team right on that win-curve position where a massive blow can be the most massive. People are mourning this. It’s not that much of an overreaction.

It’s important to understand the greater context, here. At least, to acknowledge it. The loss of Stroman is a loss for everyone, but he’s especially a loss for fans in Toronto. Not that the fans are more important than Stroman himself, since this is Stroman’s career and he’s the one who’s hurting, but there are reasons why this is particularly crushing to the community.

Fans have fallen in love with Stroman and his story. He was drafted and developed by the Jays, and he moved quickly, and last year he had good success in the majors. He’s a long-term core piece, and more than that, he’s a long-term core piece with personality and smarts to match. Stroman’s been easy to dream on, and his repertoire is something out of a video game. Stroman’s been on the rise as the Jays have been on the rise, and this was to be a special season, with Stroman right in the middle of it. All the ingredients have been in place for Stroman to be a first-tier fan favorite.

And Stroman’s gone, suddenly. For only a year, but we all suck at focusing on the future. And now, remember, the Blue Jays have the longest playoff drought in the major leagues. It’s been 21 seasons since they won the 1993 World Series. They haven’t sniffed the playoffs since, and the second-longest drought spans a comparatively brief 13 years. Granted, the Jays did win consecutive championships. A lot of people who follow the Jays weren’t yet alive. Having to wait a couple decades does something to one’s patience.

And, hey, I don’t know much about basketball, and it seems the Raptors are in first place, but they’ve only ever once made it past the first round. They haven’t provided much in the way of Blue Jays relief. And then there are the Maple Leafs, who seem to be one of the biggest disasters in their league. Their most recent playoff appearance was soul-crushing, and this year they’ve gone a different route entirely. Observe the Maple Leafs’ playoff odds over time, courtesy of this site:

I am not a Toronto local. I don’t know exactly how it feels to be a Toronto local. I can make only some educated guesses, but my primary educated guess is that it’s been difficult to be a Toronto-area sports fan, and this latest Stroman news rips away one of the few things to cling to. Stroman represented that glimmer of real hope. Real hope does remain, in this year and next, but losing Stroman makes everything harder, and losing Stroman makes everything darker. You don’t want to look up when it’s raining.

So there’s an emotional aspect here. This is acutely painful for Jays fans. It’s also painful for baseball fans — Stroman looked to be one of the very most watchable players in the game. We’ll all have to wait before we see him again. Still, you have to consider that which is beyond emotion. Rather coldly, the Blue Jays front office must now evaluate where the team is positioned.

And the team is still positioned to be in the race. Perhaps that’s the one bright side. Stroman’s good, potentially really good, but he’s not Mike Trout, and the Jays without Stroman aren’t the Rangers without Darvish. With Stroman gone, we still have the Jays projected to be a little better than .500. They’re basically even with the Yankees and Rays, and the Yankees might be waiting for the other Tanaka shoe to drop. But more important then the projected standings are the odds. Before the Stroman news, we had the Blue Jays with a 23% shot at the division, and a 19% shot at the wild card. Unfortunately the odds haven’t yet updated, but I’d guess that Toronto’s playoff odds will drop from 42% to something like 32%. This hurts, but it isn’t totally crushing.

A big issue is it strains what was already some limited depth. Obviously, Mark Buehrle remains. R.A. Dickey remains. Drew Hutchison remains. Now, though, two spots will have to go to Marco Estrada, Daniel Norris, and Aaron Sanchez. Johan Santana could become available soon. I don’t need to tell you about the upside there. Nor do I need to tell you about the downside. Maybe the Hollywood version would be that Santana came out of nowhere to contribute, and then by some miracle Stroman became available in October. That would make for an unforgettable story. Tons of unforgettable stories have never been written.

This is a hell of an opportunity for Norris. Santana, too, who only would’ve signed with Toronto in the first place because he thought he might get a chance. It isn’t clear what Sanchez might do, and Estrada could be a real No. 4/5 with a handful of fly balls staying in the yard. One truth about depth: you usually need a lot of it. Another truth about depth: you don’t always need a lot of it, and though the Jays will be challenged without Stroman, maybe they’ll get lucky from here on out.

As far as trades go, you can never be sure. Alex Anthopoulos is constantly talking to everyone in the league. His whole method is wearing other executives down, and if there’s one GM in baseball who will consider all the realistic and unrealistic options, it’s this guy. It’s only natural to connect the Jays to Cole Hamels. It’s only natural to connect the Jays to anyone. They’ll think about them all. It’s a part of the model.

But it also seems like the Jays are short on money, and while they could free a little up by moving Dioner Navarro, a few million dollars doesn’t get you much, and as far as the Hamels thing is concerned, the Phillies have indicated no willingness to pay Hamels down. Other pieces are out there, but they might not be better than the pieces the Jays already have in-house, so what we might end up seeing are a few months of evaluation. Could be we see a waiver claim, but maybe this ends up a subject the front office revisits in July.

The job of a front office is to deal with whatever’s presented, swiftly and objectively. Anthopoulos is thinking about a year without Marcus Stroman because he has to. He has to move past the emotional blow, because an executive can’t let himself get caught up in despair and dejection. The Jays are already thinking about how this can be salvaged, and they know this can be salvaged, with good luck and good decisions. In time, the fans will get there, too. The fans will deal, and baseball will be played, and games will be won. For fans of the Blue Jays, good moments are ahead. They’ve just never felt further away.