How the Reds Can Win the NL Central
The Cincinnati Reds face an uphill battle in 2015. The St. Louis Cardinals are heavy favorites. The Pittsburgh Pirates brought back most of its playoff team and could see improvement with a young roster. The Cubs have made improvements, and even the Brewers bring back many players who put them in first place for most of 2014. The odds of the Reds winning the division are not very good. The FanGraphs Playoff Odds are up, and the Reds have just a 3.0% chance of winning the division. That means out of 10,000 simulations, the Reds won the division around 300 times. Focusing in on the 3% chance side, it is possible to create scenarios where the Reds can win the division.
FanGraphs Playoff Odds are based on ZiPS, Steamer, and the Depth Chart Projections. Those projections are not very kind to the Reds. The projections currently have the Reds at 75 wins, last in the National League Central. For a frame of reference, here are the top five teams per WAR according to those projections.
| Team | Bat | Pit | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | 27.3 | 19 | 46.2 |
| Dodgers | 28.1 | 16.5 | 44.6 |
| Red Sox | 29.5 | 14.2 | 43.7 |
| Cardinals | 27.2 | 14.4 | 41.6 |
| Tigers | 24.8 | 15.1 | 39.8 |
Here are the bottom five teams according to those projections.
| Team | Bat | Pit | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | 17.2 | 11.9 | 29.1 |
| Reds | 19.1 | 9.4 | 28.4 |
| Diamondbacks | 17.8 | 8 | 25.8 |
| Braves | 13.7 | 10 | 23.6 |
| Phillies | 11.5 | 8.3 | 19.7 |
The Reds figure to be one of the worst teams in baseball according to the projections. However, every team won the division in some simulations, around once every 30 times or so for the Reds. To figure out how the Reds can possibly beat the projections and make the playoffs, a baseline should be set for the Reds current expected level of performance.
Here are the projected statistics from the FanGraphs Depth Charts for the Reds major position player contributors.
| Name | PA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | Bat | BsR | Fld | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Votto | 580 | 0.411 | 0.467 | 0.384 | 29.3 | -1.9 | 3.5 | 4.3 |
| Devin Mesoraco | 448 | 0.322 | 0.453 | 0.338 | 6.9 | -1.2 | 0.5 | 3.1 |
| Todd Frazier | 550 | 0.319 | 0.443 | 0.335 | 7.2 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 3.1 |
| Billy Hamilton | 525 | 0.303 | 0.356 | 0.294 | -9.7 | 4.6 | 8.9 | 2.3 |
| Brandon Phillips | 525 | 0.306 | 0.385 | 0.305 | -5.4 | -0.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 |
| Jay Bruce | 535 | 0.318 | 0.452 | 0.334 | 6.4 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 1.9 |
| Marlon Byrd | 565 | 0.304 | 0.442 | 0.325 | 3.0 | -1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Zack Cozart | 455 | 0.282 | 0.358 | 0.283 | -12.4 | 0.7 | 5.6 | 1.0 |
Here are the projected statistics for the principal starting pitchers for the Reds.
| Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Cueto | 205 | 8.3 | 2.3 | 3.09 | 3.51 | 3.0 |
| Homer Bailey | 185 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 3.60 | 3.75 | 2.1 |
| Mike Leake | 181 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 3.93 | 4.04 | 1.2 |
| Tony Cingrani | 157 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 3.79 | 4.19 | 1.3 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | 139 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 4.38 | 4.38 | 0.4 |
With 19.3 WAR for the position players and 8.0 WAR for the starters, those numbers come very close the totals used in the Depth Chart projections. To try and get optimistic yet realistic, looking at a player’s recent past production can be instructive.
Here are those same Reds position players in 2014.
| Name | PA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | Off | BsR | Def | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Frazier | 660 | 0.336 | 0.459 | 0.350 | 19.5 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 4.7 |
| Devin Mesoraco | 440 | 0.359 | 0.534 | 0.387 | 19.5 | -3.7 | 7.3 | 4.4 |
| Billy Hamilton | 611 | 0.292 | 0.355 | 0.287 | -7.9 | 6.4 | 22.0 | 3.5 |
| Marlon Byrd | 637 | 0.312 | 0.445 | 0.330 | 1.9 | -4.8 | -3.2 | 1.9 |
| Brandon Phillips | 499 | 0.306 | 0.372 | 0.300 | -8.3 | -1.5 | 9.9 | 1.8 |
| Zack Cozart | 543 | 0.268 | 0.300 | 0.254 | -23.5 | 3.2 | 18.7 | 1.2 |
| Joey Votto | 272 | 0.390 | 0.409 | 0.359 | 5.4 | -3.1 | -3.7 | 1.1 |
| Jay Bruce | 545 | 0.281 | 0.373 | 0.288 | -12.4 | 0.3 | -13.6 | -1.1 |
Those numbers total 17.6 WAR, even worse than the projections for this season. Here are those same players’ statistics from 2013, a season that ended just 17 months ago.
| Name | PA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | Off | BsR | Def | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Votto | 726 | 0.435 | 0.491 | 0.400 | 45.4 | -0.6 | -10.1 | 6.1 |
| Marlon Byrd | 579 | 0.336 | 0.511 | 0.364 | 24.5 | 0.5 | -3.7 | 4.1 |
| Jay Bruce | 697 | 0.329 | 0.478 | 0.344 | 14.0 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 4.0 |
| Todd Frazier | 600 | 0.314 | 0.407 | 0.319 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 11.7 | 3.3 |
| Brandon Phillips | 666 | 0.310 | 0.396 | 0.307 | -7.0 | -0.5 | 10.9 | 2.6 |
| Zack Cozart | 618 | 0.284 | 0.381 | 0.289 | -12.2 | 2.6 | 13.1 | 2.1 |
| Billy Hamilton | 22 | 0.429 | 0.474 | 0.398 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Devin Mesoraco | 352 | 0.287 | 0.362 | 0.282 | -13.3 | -3.0 | 6.6 | 0.4 |
Just two seasons ago, the same group put up 23.2 WAR, a four-win improvement over the current projections. While the group is two years older, bounce-back seasons do happen. Joey Votto has been a great player, and could well be again. Jay Bruce was very good before having a terrible year in 2014. Combining the best season from each player using just the past two years nets the following:
| Name | PA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | Off | BsR | Def | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Votto | 726 | 0.435 | 0.491 | 0.400 | 45.4 | -0.6 | -10.1 | 6.1 |
| Todd Frazier | 660 | 0.336 | 0.459 | 0.350 | 19.5 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 4.7 |
| Devin Mesoraco | 440 | 0.359 | 0.534 | 0.387 | 19.5 | -3.7 | 7.3 | 4.4 |
| Marlon Byrd | 579 | 0.336 | 0.511 | 0.364 | 24.5 | 0.5 | -3.7 | 4.1 |
| Jay Bruce | 697 | 0.329 | 0.478 | 0.344 | 14.0 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 4.0 |
| Billy Hamilton | 611 | 0.292 | 0.355 | 0.287 | -7.9 | 6.4 | 22.0 | 3.5 |
| Brandon Phillips | 666 | 0.310 | 0.396 | 0.307 | -7.0 | -0.5 | 10.9 | 2.6 |
| Zack Cozart | 618 | 0.284 | 0.381 | 0.289 | -12.2 | 2.6 | 13.1 | 2.1 |
That team gets 31.5 WAR from its top position players. While not likely, it is within the realm of possibilities. That team beats the position player projections for every single team heading into the season. Repeating the same exercise for the pitchers, including the most optimistic of the projections (ZiPS, Steamer, Depth Charts) given Desclafani and Cingrani’s small track records, produces the following results.
| Name | WAR |
|---|---|
| Johnny Cueto | 4.1 |
| Homer Bailey | 3.7 |
| Mike Leake | 1.9 |
| Tony Cingrani | 1.7 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | 0.6 |
With 12 WAR we now have a four-win improvement over the projections. The bullpen can also be a factor. Currently, Aroldis Chapman is projected f0r 2.4 WAR and the rest of the bullpen is at -0.6. Given the fickle nature of bullpens, a small positive contribution from the non-Chapman bullpen would not be surprising and potentially add another win to the total.
The projected standings at the moment look like this:
| Team | EXPW | EXPL | W% | DIV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 87.4 | 74.6 | 0.540 | 46.6 % |
| Pirates | 84.1 | 77.9 | 0.519 | 24.4 % |
| Cubs | 83.1 | 78.9 | 0.513 | 19.9 % |
| Brewers | 78.2 | 83.8 | 0.483 | 6.2 % |
| Reds | 75.4 | 86.6 | 0.465 | 3.0 % |
Assuming the rest of the division hits their projections, we add 13.2 WAR for the position players, 4.0 WAR for the starting pitchers, 1.0 WAR for the bullpen, assume all extra plate appearances and innings above the projected numbers are taken from replacement players, and round wins to the nearest whole number, the end of the season standings could look like this:
| Team | W | L | W% | DIV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reds | 94 | 68 | 0.580 | 100% |
| Cardinals | 87 | 75 | 0.537 | 0% |
| Pirates | 84 | 78 | 0.519 | 0% |
| Cubs | 83 | 79 | 0.512 | 0% |
| Brewers | 78 | 84 | 0.481 | 0% |
Using the best numbers over just the prior two years nets the Reds a healthy advantage over the rest of the division. The scenario is not likely, but even above, the Reds can drop some of the numbers and still end up in the playoffs. The situation is not overly realistic, but it is a reminder that at the beginning of the season, every team really does have a chance if things fall right. The talent gap between players is narrow. Injuries and breakouts can have a big impact.
Last season, the Reds got a combined replacement level season from Jay Bruce and Joey Votto after getting more than 10 WAR from the duo in 2013. The Reds finished 2014 ten games under .500 and 12 games out of the Wild Card, but they were not that far away from contending. Continued success for Devin Mesoraco and Todd Frazier, a return to 2013 for Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, and another Cy Young-caliber season from Johnny Cueto, and the Reds could pull off a great season. It is not likely, but right now, anything is possible.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
This is a fancier stat version of what I used to do as a kid. “If Oswaldo Peraza wins 20 games, and Mike Boddicker wins 20 games, and Cal, Eddie, and Larry Sheets hit 30 homeruns each, and Tom Niedenfuer gets 30 saves, and our new acquisitions from the champion Mets, Ray Knight and Doug Sisk, bring that champion energy to the squad, I think we could go all the way.”
Hope springs eternal.
When I saw, “every team won the division in some simulations”, I thought: even the Phillies? But the Phillies are listed at 0.0% odds for the division. It’s still possible, because rounding.
Not if I have anything to say about it!
I was wondering in what world the Cardinals could be considered “heavy” favorites, and then I saw your mini-bio. I think the Pirates are a couple games better than them.
Fair, although the odds have them at about twice as likely to win the division.
Well, Fangraphs playoffs odds give the Cardinals a 46.6% chance of winning the division vs the Pirates’ 24.4% chance so that seems pretty favorable
I’m glad you think that. What is your projection system, again, or are you just a Pirate’s homer?
I get so tired of this on here… A writer likes a team, therefore any stats he quotes about that team must be inflated. Why can’t the author just write about the team s/he likes because s/he is more interested in that team, which makes the task more enjoyable? Craig being a Cards fan has nothing to do with the projected standings for this season. The projections which currently favor the Cardinals 46.6-24.4% to win the NL Central over the Pirates.
Whether or not a 20+% gap makes them “heavy” favorites is debatable, as language is subjective, but having the Cards pegged as 2-3 wins better is as objective as numbers can be. Find me a projection system that agrees with your opinion and your comment starts to hold water, otherwise you might want to reconsider where the true bias lies.
You type very well for a large northwestern feline.
One needs only to look at the laughable AL projections to realize that the playoff odds calculator is missing a few variables. Unless you truly believe that the team that won that division by a dozen games will come in last. I guess my point is that, fun though this may be, it really doesn’t mean much. April is too far away.
Did the Orioles get better in a way that has gone under the radar? Is their rotation suddenly amazing? Did they some how acquire a good amount of depth that they lacked last season? They had some really good health last year to go with some amazing, but completely unexpected, performances. They also lost their best hitter from last year. Not to mention that teams like the Red Sox and the Blue Jays have made some significant improvements.
Combine all of this with the Orioles having typically over performed expectations, while the Sox and Blue Jays underperformed, and I don’t think that the projected standings and playoff odds are too far out of line with the reality of the situation.
It’s only laughable to someone who doesn’t understand that past performance =/= projected future performance.
And around here, that guy’s opinion is laughable.
BMark–
We disagree on the reasonability of the Pirates’ division chances, but you’re spot-on here. Well said.
FWIW, I agree with you. I wouldn’t normally comment on this, but a number of people felt the need to try to shoot you down.
As a comparison, I’d call the Nats “heavy” favorites. The Cardinals are favorites, sure. Calling them heavy favorites does seem to show some bias.
I would call the Nats overwhelming favorites. Heavy isn’t quite strong enough language in my opinion.
Ok, so an additional 20% likelihood of winning doesn’t constitute “heavy.” What does? 25? 27.3?
Too many here are too worried about semantics like the use of the word “heavy.” Is “substantial” or “significant” better? Does the use of the word “heavy” change the article in any meaningful way?
The answer, of course, is no. You just wanted to make a big deal about something that’s completely unimportant to the main thesis, like someone does with nearly every article.
2000 words in the article but the only important one is “heavy” and that’s indicative of bias. Get over it. It’s 1 insignificant word out of 2000.
Despite the backlash you’re getting, you are absolutely correct. The Cardinals 46% chance is actually the lowest of any projected division winner in the National League. By far.
The Cubs (19.9%) have the highest odds of any projected 3rd place finisher in MLB and actually come in with better odds than the 2nd place projected teams in the NL West and NL East.
The 4.3 win difference in expected wins between St Louis (87.4) and Chicago (83.1) is the lowest amount separating the top 3 projected division finishers in all of MLB.
If you want to call the Dodgers or Nats heavy favorites, so be it. In my eyes the NL Central is super deep and any of 3 teams could win. Calling the Cardinals “Heavy” favorites is really a slight to the teams in Pittsburgh and Chicago.
Who cares? It’s a mountain out of a mole hill.
I do not think you can say that the Reds can not at least average their totals for the last two years. That’s what makes career averages. Votto and Bruce were hurt. Why can’t we expect them to at least go back to career averages. We should allow the younger to get better, as that is what most do. Pitching and Bullpen is my biggest question mark, but hey, I’m a fan and I think the young pitchers will do fine.
reasonable opinion:
“I was wondering in what world the Cardinals could be considered “heavy” favorites”
unreasonable opinion:
“I think the Pirates are a couple games better than them.”
Wait…what? Thinking the Pirates may be better than the Cardinals is “unreasonable”?
Completely false.
Not a Pirates fan, don’t have a dog in the hunt, but thinking they may be better than the Cardinals when three (3!) (!!) games separate them in the projected standings is certainly a perfectly reasonable stance. WELL within the margin of error for a preseason projection from a single source.
Thinking that the Braves or Phillies may be better than the Nationals, or the D-backs better than the Dodgers, are all “unreasonable” positions.
I’m a Pirates homer but here are a couple of points that might lead one to think that the Pirates may be a couple of games better than the Cards:
1. The Pirates outperformed the Cards last year by a wide margin according to BaseRuns.
2. Last year, at least, Fangraphs’ pitching and defensive metrics missed badly on the Pirates’ run prevention. If the Pirates’ run prevention outperforms their metrics again, then they can hit their individual FIP and defensive projections and still outperform their win projection.
3. As a recent article at Viva El Birdos calculates, the Cards’ best players are much older than the Pirates’. Aging curves are built into the projections, but this might mean that the Cards are more vulnerable to collapse, and their best player has already been injured a bit.
4. Or some other reason the original poster has thought of!
Now this doesn’t mean I myself think the Pirates are better, but it’s not an unreasonable opinion like “The Diamondbacks are a few games better than the Dodgers.”
The way I see it, the Cardinals and Pirates are largely the same teams as they were last year, the only major changes being that the Cardinals have plugged their huge hole in RF, while the Pirates have downgraded significantly at catcher and replaced Volquez with Burnett.
While the Cards do have some older position players compared to the Pirates, there’s still no one over 35 except their LOOGY Choate, while they also have quite a few younger players who are likely to show improvement alongside the Pirates’ youngsters.
It’s not a single source at all. The depth charts are based on Steamer and Zips, both of which have the Cardinals ahead. Pecota has been shown to be just as good as Zips and Steamer, and Pecota gives the Cardinals a very large lead, in fact they think the Pirates will be third.
Don’t get me wrong, I think the Pirates are a strong team, and I’m not saying it’s unreasonable at all to think that the Pirates could win the division. Projections give the 50% mean projection, and the Pirates could easily over-perform a little bit and the Cardinals could easily under-perform a little bit.
But, when all 3 of the top public projection systems have the Cardinals ahead, it’s unreasonable to believe the Pirates are the better team going in. If you’re playing around with creating a projection system and it tells you the Pirates are the better team, then the chances are much stronger that your projection system isn’t very good as opposed to being on to something that the best projections aren’t capturing.
“it’s unreasonable to believe the Pirates are the better team going in.”
Again, that’s just false. So three projection systems have the Cards ahead. Whenever they do the writers’ predictions, there will be a smattering of picks for the Pirates to win the division, and maybe even a couple for the Cubs. Perfectly defensible choices when there is not a lot of perceived difference between the teams.
There will be no predictions for the Rangers, Phillies, Braves, or D-backs to win their divisions. As those are unreasonable choices.
“Whenever they do the writers’ predictions, there will be a smattering of picks for the Pirates to win the division, and maybe even a couple for the Cubs. ”
And those are worthless, as they’re just writers trying to find something to write about. They have no logical reason to believe they are better than the actual projections. Show me an established projection system that considers the Pirates the better team.
When the only 3 systems who’s opinion is worth something say the Cardinals are better, it’s unreasonable to conclude that the Pirates are the better team. It’s really just that simple.
“They have no logical reason to believe they are better than the actual projections. Show me an established projection system that considers the Pirates the better team.”
You’re right, no one could POSSIBLY defy the all-knowing projection systems that have gotten 100.000% of division winners right in each of the past…wait, they haven’t?! You mean writers can have valid opinions that *gasp* disagree with a hallowed projection? You mean they don’t mindlessly parrot exactly the same results that the all-knowing Oracle projection system spit out?
Well I never…
(It’s funny that one doubles down so readily when they could not be more wrong.)
Nice strawman. Still waiting for any evidence that random writers have a better track record than ZIPs, Steamer, or Pecota
I think the Cardinals would be considered “heavy” favorites in a world where all their position players looked like Matt Adams.
I just can’t picture the Reds crapping out. I know they’ve aged but man, that’s some serious talent over there. I try my best to trust projections and ignore my “intuition” but I can’t discount the Reds.
The problem with the Reds is that they have virtually no depth outside of their starting 8 position players. If you can count on 150+ games out of their starters they would be ok (although not great) but if anyone gets hurt their replacements are atrocious.
You are dead to me.
The Twins have better division odds than the Reds…
Yeah, but if everyone puts up a career year and no one gets hurt, they may do well! (Which can fairly be said of probably 26-29 other teams.)
A congenital heart defect has apparently felled the remainder of the NL Central moments before they could step into the ring.
If every single player plays to his maximum level, the team will beat their projections and could win the division.
Elementary
So the Reds best case is 94 wins. What is the chance that one of the other NL Central teams wins 95+? I wouldn’t be surprised if that is >50%, which would make the Reds best case chance to win the division a coin flip.
probably not, since you’re talking teams within the division. If the Reds over-perform by 20 games that doesn’t leave much room for say, the Cardinals to over-perform by the required 8 games, and if they did it would mean some serious under-performing by everyone else in the division. Each team plays their divisional opponents 76 times, so as a whole a division can only over-perform by so much.
Hmmm, I made a comment about predicted standings based on pre-season WAR projections when they first came up foe 2015 and got shit all over. But somehow this gets a pass? Ok.
The Red’s will definitely be in contention this year. They were in 2nd place last year at the All-Star break til they collapsed. I think the Red’s projections for Votto and Bruce are criminally low since last year was just a lost season to injury. I was wondering if there one bad season could influence projections so much when 2014 were abberations to their career norms. Health dictates how far this team will go, not lack of talent.
This team has talent. I think they’ll hang around in contention for a while when the team is relatively healthy, but as many have referenced, the Reds have diddly squat with regards to depth.
You can’t count on the whole team staying completely healthy the whole year though. If anyone like Votto, Mesoraco, Cueto, etc. who is being relied on for big time production goes down for any significant amount of time due to injury, Cincy is totally screwed, unless they find some replacement level plug-ins who perform like all-stars out of nowhere.
Even from a conventional view. I think nearly a 50 percent chance of winning your division is pretty high. And being more than 20 points ahead of your nearest competition. As well as from a conventional standpoint of the history to this point. The Pirates are a good team but they are betting on overperformance of their pitching staff again. While they have the depth there is nothing terribly threatening. I think this is just nitpicking. Edwards is trying to argue for the winning of the Reds not the Cards.
I would have liked to have seen what some of the player stats looked like, for one or a couple of the sim’ed seasons that the Reds won…any chance of an article that looks at those, and the stats from the teams that would have to disappoint to let the Reds in?
The Reds’ chances are actually even better than you point out, as the Reds winning more games means the rest of the division loses more games as more and more of the many inter-divisional games fall in the Reds’ favor.
This team is pretty underrated. They still retain a large chunk of the core that won the division in 2012 and won a wild card spot in 2013. Then they were hit hard by injuries to several key players last year. With better health, I think they’ve got a good shot at at least 3rd place.
Sorry, I mean intra-divisional games. Stupid similar sounding yet opposite meaning prefixes!
The only slice of reality in this piece and you kinda missed it. Who cares about 2012? Philips sucks, Bruce looks lost, Votto can’t walk from here to there without blowing a quad, and the pitching has taken a step back.
“The St. Louis Cardinals are heavy favorites(Bringing back a team that has won the division two years in a row). The Pittsburgh Pirates brought back most of its playoff team and could see improvement with a young roster. The Cubs have made improvements, and even the Brewers bring back many players who put them in first place for most of 2014”.
You sure didn’t sugarcoat THAT Captain !
What if Michael Wacha turns into Wainwright No.2? What if Pedro Alvarez becomes Barry Bonds No.2? What if Javier Baez follows in Ernie Banks’ footsteps?
What if Michael Wacha turns into Rick Ankiel 2.0? What if 2015 Pedro Alvarez becomes 2011 Pedro Alvarez? What if Javier Baez follows in Brandon Woods’ footsteps?