How the Reds Can Win the NL Central

The Cincinnati Reds face an uphill battle in 2015. The St. Louis Cardinals are heavy favorites. The Pittsburgh Pirates brought back most of its playoff team and could see improvement with a young roster. The Cubs have made improvements, and even the Brewers bring back many players who put them in first place for most of 2014. The odds of the Reds winning the division are not very good. The FanGraphs Playoff Odds are up, and the Reds have just a 3.0% chance of winning the division. That means out of 10,000 simulations, the Reds won the division around 300 times. Focusing in on the 3% chance side, it is possible to create scenarios where the Reds can win the division.

FanGraphs Playoff Odds are based on ZiPS, Steamer, and the Depth Chart Projections. Those projections are not very kind to the Reds. The projections currently have the Reds at 75 wins, last in the National League Central. For a frame of reference, here are the top five teams per WAR according to those projections.

Team	Bat	Pit	WAR
Nationals	27.3	19	46.2
Dodgers	28.1	16.5	44.6
Red Sox	29.5	14.2	43.7
Cardinals	27.2	14.4	41.6
Tigers	24.8	15.1	39.8

Here are the bottom five teams according to those projections.

Team	Bat	Pit	WAR
Padres	17.2	11.9	29.1
Reds	19.1	9.4	28.4
Diamondbacks	17.8	8	25.8
Braves	13.7	10	23.6
Phillies	11.5	8.3	19.7

The Reds figure to be one of the worst teams in baseball according to the projections. However, every team won the division in some simulations, around once every 30 times or so for the Reds. To figure out how the Reds can possibly beat the projections and make the playoffs, a baseline should be set for the Reds current expected level of performance.

Here are the projected statistics from the FanGraphs Depth Charts for the Reds major position player contributors.

Name	PA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Bat	BsR	Fld	WAR
Joey Votto	580	0.411	0.467	0.384	29.3	-1.9	3.5	4.3
Devin Mesoraco	448	0.322	0.453	0.338	6.9	-1.2	0.5	3.1
Todd Frazier	550	0.319	0.443	0.335	7.2	0.8	1.8	3.1
Billy Hamilton	525	0.303	0.356	0.294	-9.7	4.6	8.9	2.3
Brandon Phillips	525	0.306	0.385	0.305	-5.4	-0.4	6.3	2.0
Jay Bruce	535	0.318	0.452	0.334	6.4	-0.1	0.3	1.9
Marlon Byrd	565	0.304	0.442	0.325	3.0	-1.6	1.7	1.6
Zack Cozart	455	0.282	0.358	0.283	-12.4	0.7	5.6	1.0

Here are the projected statistics for the principal starting pitchers for the Reds.

Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP	WAR
Johnny Cueto	205	8.3	2.3	3.09	3.51	3.0
Homer Bailey	185	8.0	2.4	3.60	3.75	2.1
Mike Leake	181	6.4	2.1	3.93	4.04	1.2
Tony Cingrani	157	9.6	4.0	3.79	4.19	1.3
Anthony DeSclafani	139	7.1	2.6	4.38	4.38	0.4

With 19.3 WAR for the position players and 8.0 WAR for the starters, those numbers come very close the totals used in the Depth Chart projections. To try and get optimistic yet realistic, looking at a player’s recent past production can be instructive.

Here are those same Reds position players in 2014.

Name	PA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Off	BsR	Def	WAR
Todd Frazier	660	0.336	0.459	0.350	19.5	3.3	3.4	4.7
Devin Mesoraco	440	0.359	0.534	0.387	19.5	-3.7	7.3	4.4
Billy Hamilton	611	0.292	0.355	0.287	-7.9	6.4	22.0	3.5
Marlon Byrd	637	0.312	0.445	0.330	1.9	-4.8	-3.2	1.9
Brandon Phillips	499	0.306	0.372	0.300	-8.3	-1.5	9.9	1.8
Zack Cozart	543	0.268	0.300	0.254	-23.5	3.2	18.7	1.2
Joey Votto	272	0.390	0.409	0.359	5.4	-3.1	-3.7	1.1
Jay Bruce	545	0.281	0.373	0.288	-12.4	0.3	-13.6	-1.1

Those numbers total 17.6 WAR, even worse than the projections for this season. Here are those same players’ statistics from 2013, a season that ended just 17 months ago.

Name	PA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Off	BsR	Def	WAR
Joey Votto	726	0.435	0.491	0.400	45.4	-0.6	-10.1	6.1
Marlon Byrd	579	0.336	0.511	0.364	24.5	0.5	-3.7	4.1
Jay Bruce	697	0.329	0.478	0.344	14.0	0.3	2.8	4.0
Todd Frazier	600	0.314	0.407	0.319	1.1	1.3	11.7	3.3
Brandon Phillips	666	0.310	0.396	0.307	-7.0	-0.5	10.9	2.6
Zack Cozart	618	0.284	0.381	0.289	-12.2	2.6	13.1	2.1
Billy Hamilton	22	0.429	0.474	0.398	4.1	2.7	0.8	0.6
Devin Mesoraco	352	0.287	0.362	0.282	-13.3	-3.0	6.6	0.4

Just two seasons ago, the same group put up 23.2 WAR, a four-win improvement over the current projections. While the group is two years older, bounce-back seasons do happen. Joey Votto has been a great player, and could well be again. Jay Bruce was very good before having a terrible year in 2014. Combining the best season from each player using just the past two years nets the following:

Name	PA	OBP	SLG	wOBA	Off	BsR	Def	WAR
Joey Votto	726	0.435	0.491	0.400	45.4	-0.6	-10.1	6.1
Todd Frazier	660	0.336	0.459	0.350	19.5	3.3	3.4	4.7
Devin Mesoraco	440	0.359	0.534	0.387	19.5	-3.7	7.3	4.4
Marlon Byrd	579	0.336	0.511	0.364	24.5	0.5	-3.7	4.1
Jay Bruce	697	0.329	0.478	0.344	14.0	0.3	2.8	4.0
Billy Hamilton	611	0.292	0.355	0.287	-7.9	6.4	22.0	3.5
Brandon Phillips	666	0.310	0.396	0.307	-7.0	-0.5	10.9	2.6
Zack Cozart	618	0.284	0.381	0.289	-12.2	2.6	13.1	2.1

That team gets 31.5 WAR from its top position players. While not likely, it is within the realm of possibilities. That team beats the position player projections for every single team heading into the season. Repeating the same exercise for the pitchers, including the most optimistic of the projections (ZiPS, Steamer, Depth Charts) given Desclafani and Cingrani’s small track records, produces the following results.

Name	WAR
Johnny Cueto	4.1
Homer Bailey	3.7
Mike Leake	1.9
Tony Cingrani	1.7
Anthony DeSclafani	0.6

With 12 WAR we now have a four-win improvement over the projections. The bullpen can also be a factor. Currently, Aroldis Chapman is projected f0r 2.4 WAR and the rest of the bullpen is at -0.6. Given the fickle nature of bullpens, a small positive contribution from the non-Chapman bullpen would not be surprising and potentially add another win to the total.

The projected standings at the moment look like this:

Team	EXPW	EXPL	W%	DIV
Cardinals	87.4	74.6	0.540	46.6 %
Pirates	84.1	77.9	0.519	24.4 %
Cubs	83.1	78.9	0.513	19.9 %
Brewers	78.2	83.8	0.483	6.2 %
Reds	75.4	86.6	0.465	3.0 %

Assuming the rest of the division hits their projections, we add 13.2 WAR for the position players, 4.0 WAR for the starting pitchers, 1.0 WAR for the bullpen, assume all extra plate appearances and innings above the projected numbers are taken from replacement players, and round wins to the nearest whole number, the end of the season standings could look like this:

Team	W	L	W%	DIV
Reds	94	68	0.580	100%
Cardinals	87	75	0.537	0%
Pirates	84	78	0.519	0%
Cubs	83	79	0.512	0%
Brewers	78	84	0.481	0%

Using the best numbers over just the prior two years nets the Reds a healthy advantage over the rest of the division. The scenario is not likely, but even above, the Reds can drop some of the numbers and still end up in the playoffs. The situation is not overly realistic, but it is a reminder that at the beginning of the season, every team really does have a chance if things fall right. The talent gap between players is narrow. Injuries and breakouts can have a big impact.

Last season, the Reds got a combined replacement level season from Jay Bruce and Joey Votto after getting more than 10 WAR from the duo in 2013. The Reds finished 2014 ten games under .500 and 12 games out of the Wild Card, but they were not that far away from contending. Continued success for Devin Mesoraco and Todd Frazier, a return to 2013 for Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, and another Cy Young-caliber season from Johnny Cueto, and the Reds could pull off a great season. It is not likely, but right now, anything is possible.