Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 3/10/15 by Kiley McDaniel March 10, 2015 12:21 Kiley McDaniel: Just texted an exec “this Olivera thing is getting pretty nutty.” He said “totes.” 12:21 Comment From Stanatee the Manatee Can you grade Carson’s fielding in this video? https://instagram.com/p/z8p… 12:21 Kiley McDaniel: I was the one hitting grounders to him with one of those really skinny plastic bats, so my bad on the backspin that killed the second one. I believe his skills rate a WTF on the 20-80. 12:22 Comment From Vslyke Your writeup successfully turned me and several other Braves fans off of Hector Olivera. What do the Braves see in him? He seems like a much better fit for a team that is, you know, trying to win now and not in 2017. 12:24 Kiley McDaniel: Here’s the thing: he’s a good player and he’s big league ready. I was trying to re-set expectations for some obvious reasons because this thing was spinning out of control. I think he’ll be a 50 FV for at least a few years with some positional flexibility and it everything goes perfectly, he could be a 60 FV. That’s worth $10 million per year for a few years and if he was 27 with no injury history and he was playing in games 6 months ago, then it would be more like $15M per for 5-7 years. I’d encourage you to root for landing him for under $50 million and for something in the $30s. I think he’s a solid gamble for a mid-market at that price. 12:24 Comment From Keith Any Braves July 2 info? Thanks 12:24 Kiley McDaniel: Lots of it, should be coming in the next July 2 article. 12:24 Comment From mattkay is Denard Span’s injury good / bad / doesn’t really matter for Michael Taylor? 12:26 Kiley McDaniel: I don’t think he’s ready to make enough contact to be an everyday starter in the big leagues right now, but he needs a challenge and because of the raw power and speed/defense, him hitting way below league average is probably still their best freely available option. I’m the low guy on him among the ranking people, but he’s still in the top 150 and with a strong month or two of contact in the bigs would be a top 50 guy, since that’s really the only question. 12:26 Comment From Andrew What kind of numbers does a D2 hitter have to put up to be considered draftable 12:28 Kiley McDaniel: Has to put up very good numbers, but you could lead D2 in every category and not get drafted, because the pitching is considered that weak. Still have to have tools (bat speed, power, good swing easy actions, etc.). If you hit like crazy and have average tools and play 1B, you can probably be a late round pick. 12:28 Comment From Bret What separates Devon Travis and Dwight Smith Jr. as second base prospects? If Smith proves capable of handling the position, would they be similar types of prospects? 12:29 Kiley McDaniel: They’re both fringy defensively right now, Smith has a little more power and Travis has a much better bat that’s been proven at higher levels. Smith technically has more upside but is also about 1.5 years behind Travis, who may not be the opening day guy this year. 12:29 Comment From John Given what you wrote about the familiarity between his agent and the Braves, does Hector Olivera changing agents make the Braves into more of a fringe player in his market? 12:31 Kiley McDaniel: The team that likes dealing with Rudy Santin doesn’t exist and Genke/Legacy is a known guy that’s done lots of deals in the draft and for big leaguers and I haven’t heard anything worse about dealing with him than any other big agent. The advantage for the Braves is Olivera likes them after the sales job they did on him, and having the top two coaches be Cuban along with a need on the team for him, playing in warm weather, etc. all fit, so they should win the bidding if it’s a virtual tie. 12:31 Comment From Matt Just how good could Reynaldo Lopez be if he takes another step forward and develops a double plus fastball and two plus off speed pitches? Any similar MLB players other than a lazy Ventura comp? 12:32 Kiley McDaniel: He already has a double plus fastball, he hit 100 last year. If the off-speed pitches both jump to 60, then he’s in rarified air near the tops of lists, so there aren’t a ton of comps. 12:32 Comment From Bill There’s a player called Trooper Reynolds on Dallas Baptist. He had 7 RBI in one inning the other day, but who cares. Look at that name. 12:32 Kiley McDaniel: Good name. I still prefer Jake Peevyhouse from Arizona State and I still haven’t found a name, sports or not, to top D’Brickashaw Ferguson. He is a national treasure. 12:33 Comment From Guest In your opinion who makes the 5th spot in the Mariner rotation, Elias or Walker, and who has more options left? 12:34 Kiley McDaniel: Elias has all 3 options and Walker 2 of his 3 remaining. Walker is obviously much more talented, but it comes down to what’s best for his development and who will be best for the next couple months. I won’t act like I have that answer this early in March. 12:34 Comment From John Im weighing offers in an NL only dynasty league for either Bradley or Stephenson. You seem to have Stephenson higher on your list than most, but are they pretty even in your eyes? Who comes up sooner? 12:35 Kiley McDaniel: Yeah, both are plus stuff guys with huge fastballs. Bradley has a lingering injury and associated command issues that may push him to the pen, or back to the top of prospect lists. Stephenson has no issues and the command isn’t even that bad, he’s just more thrower than pitcher and this year we’ll find out if he can make those adjustments. Both have huge stuff and reliever risk and could come up this year as relief options if the team is good. I’d lean Stephenson due to the health edge. 12:36 Comment From Mike Trout 80 FV Is that exec totes legit? 12:36 Comment From Buck Showalter Any chance my Orioles make a big move during the international free agent signing period? 12:37 Kiley McDaniel: Under this owner, they don’t spend big money on Latin players, budget wise or on an individual basis. Go look at the track record. So, literally over his dead body they might. 12:37 Comment From Minty After reading their respective write ups, would I be correct in saying that even with added risk, you’d gamble on Gallo over Sano for fantasy? 12:38 Kiley McDaniel: Still in coin flip territory for me. I trust Sano just a little more if he’s proven healthy and completely back, which early indications is that’s the case. Little better bet to get to his power in games vs. MLB hitting for me, but I ranked them back to back on my top 200, so it’s obviously close. 12:38 Comment From bubblesdachimp Word out of Cubs camp is that Schwarber’s defense has been better than most thought behind the dish. How bad could he be back there for them to still have him catch considering the bat’s potential there? 12:39 Kiley McDaniel: I think he could be average, probably ends up fringy and the question is do you want to tax the body and if so how often. Hard to make him the everyday catcher, but could be as much as a time share situation, especially given organizational need. 12:39 Comment From Richard Better prospect long-term, Lucas Sims or Mike Foltynewicz? 12:40 Kiley McDaniel: Leaning Folty until Sims shows the command and stuff at the same time. 12:40 Kiley McDaniel: Also, if you want to know where I stand on two or more of the top prospects in the game, I wrote about and ranked 200 of them here, with links to other stuff I wrote about them and video http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… 12:40 Comment From John Tommy Pham. What’s his upside? 12:40 Kiley McDaniel: 4th OF 12:41 Comment From hanstone Kiley, great work on the prospects. I have the 3rd pick in my Dev draft in a keeper league. Assuming Moncada and Y. Tomas go prior to my pick, I can choose from: Olivera (assuming he signs this month), Kang, Swihart, A. Jackson or Schwarber. I’ll be happy with any of those. I’m thinking Kang due to possible value in 2015 and he’s got pop in the middle infield. Others have a higher ceiling long term? 12:41 Kiley McDaniel: I’d expect Swihart and Kang to be everyday guys in 2016 at important positions, but Kang should give you more this year. Defensible choice, espevcially since catchers can take longer to reach their upside, higher injury risk, etc. Eno Sarris would love every part of this conversation. 12:42 Comment From RK Have you heard/seen anything regarding Bundy’s velo this spring? 12:42 Kiley McDaniel: Haven’t, but unless he’s hitting 98 already, super early velos from ST for a guy coming off a recent TJ aren’t too predictive. 12:42 Comment From Mike I’m in a dynasty type league where I traded Dilson Herrera for Jonathan Schoop. Who do you see having the better career? Should I be fired as GM? 12:43 Kiley McDaniel: I’d lean Herrera now given Schoop’s contact issues, but Schoop has more ceiling and I would’ve taken him last year, too. Also, Schoop is really funny and he likes when you pronounce his name “scoop” instead of the correct “scope” 12:44 Comment From Benny All the talk about Castro and or Osuna making the Jays out of spring training, is this a stunt to try and save a GM’s job, long term outlook has to be better with these two continuing to develop as starters in minors for a few years? 12:44 Kiley McDaniel: Big guys throw hard with good offspeed, so they might be the best options and could be handled in such a way to make them successful, but it would be shortsighted to do this so early. Maybe later in the year when innings are getting racked up, you can take those last 30 innings that were supposed to be 5 starts and make them MLB relief innings when you know if you’re a contender already. 12:44 Comment From @RationalMLBfan What’s the outlook for Luis Torrens? He’s still a young guy, but he’s losing a year of development due to an injury to his throwing shoulder. I’m a but nervous about NYY’s recent “catching prospects” that have not turned out well (Montero, Romine, O’Brien). 12:45 Kiley McDaniel: It should all come back, like Pentecost, so doesn’t change the projection, just the risk and time to the big leagues. Torrens has easy everyday tools and he just started catching. In the parlance of this chat, he’s legit and may one day be #legit or even #LEGIT 12:46 Comment From Yosted Is Bubba Starling officially busted at this point? 12:46 Kiley McDaniel: You’d be safe to say that but KC has hope. I’d give him another year to have the tools show up on the field before you cut bait. He’ll be in the high 40 FV group on their list. 12:46 Comment From Jared I’m going to spring training next week. Whom should I watch for on the Dodgers’ backfields? 12:47 Kiley McDaniel: I believe I just wrote a list about this right here, so pick some names: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… 12:47 Comment From Miles Can you rank these 2016 arms: Riley Pint, Austin Bergner, Robert Tyler, and Cal Quantrill? Thanks 12:48 Kiley McDaniel: Quantrill, Bergner, Pint, Tyler. That said all look like top 10 overall guys right now and a 2016 list will be coming soon. 12:48 Kiley McDaniel: Tyler is in back due to recent elbow scare, but would climb when he gets back…and I’ll see him soon 12:48 Comment From Mike I have the first pick in a minor league portion of a keeper league with 4-year contracts. Who do I pick: Corey Seager or Moncada? Thanks! 12:49 Kiley McDaniel: I have them ranked back to back, but I’d take Seager, could play some SS and is closer with similar upside. 12:49 Comment From DB NL only 7 keeper roto auction — can keep only one of these two. Same cost and same time period over the next 3 years. M.Taylor or Peraza. 12:50 Kiley McDaniel: I’d lean Peraza since he’s a pretty high likelihood to get 30+ steals, hit at least .260 and play 2B, but not regularly until 2016. Taylor will get a chance to play now and has tools, but I think it’s Drew Stubbs type with most of the value in speed and defense. 12:50 Comment From Benny Do you remember a system as bare as Detroit’s in recent memory? 12:51 Kiley McDaniel: They are the next system up. It’s likely a bottom 5 system, but by no means historically bad. Plus, they’ve traded like 7 dudes that would be on the list, so, more importantly, the amateur people there are doing well, which some assume they can’t be, because the farm ranks low. 12:51 Comment From War2d2 KILEY!!! You’ve written good things about Dan Vogelbach before, and have said good things about him on the Cistulli-cast. I’m guessing the Cubs will almost certainly have to trade him, given Rizzo’s hold on 1B, and the fact that he doesn’t look like he’d be able to play outfield very well. Couple questions: How close is he to the majors? How much could he get back in a trade? Do you think he’ll be a Billy Butler type, or is that typecasting because they’re both fat white guys? 12:52 Kiley McDaniel: Probably will be traded since he fits best at DH. He’s a 45+ FV so go look at the back end of the top 200 and pick a guy from an AL team: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… 12:52 Comment From Walt with the recent FG article on Robert Stephenson, how confident are you that he can still reach number 2 potential? 12:52 Kiley McDaniel: Not very, I’d assume #3 is as good as he ends up (3 WAR). 12:52 Comment From Daddio Thoughts on Gallo? Comparison to current player both ceiling/floor. 12:53 Kiley McDaniel: Adam Dunn and Russell Branyan are the two I mentioned in the report. Seriously, people, these reports are good! 12:53 Comment From Vilnius Hello Kiley: just traded Addison Russell to fill a hole on my team in a pts. league. So the replacement choices come down to Albies or Amed Rosario. 12:53 Kiley McDaniel: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… I’d take Albies, but both are fine options. Rosario has more upside. 12:54 Comment From Minty Is it lazy to say that Dee Gordan is a good comparison for Peraza? 12:54 Kiley McDaniel: That sort of player, but more physical, so likely ends up being better. 12:54 Comment From Joe Could FG add team-by-team, organizational depth chart based on in-season and future season(s)? It might be nice to have a quick glance at teams. Love all the work you guys do…not just trying to add to your plate 12:55 Kiley McDaniel: If I understand this correctly, I think we’ll have that next year, maybe even later this year. Come back to me in May and let me know if we’re close. 12:55 Comment From Craze4RedSocks Tell us what is really going on with Moncada? 12:55 Kiley McDaniel: Nothing is going on. I’d be the presser is in the next 48 hours. Craze, indeed. 12:55 Comment From Jim Kiley, what are your thoughts on 2015 eligible Donnie Everett? Is he first round material? 12:56 Kiley McDaniel: Maybe. I saw him in October sit 94-97 for a couple innings and I’ve seen a 55 breaking ball when he was 90-93, so it may end up being that sandwich to 2nd round closer type, or mhe may develop some starter traits and go even higher. I’d set the over under around pick 50. 12:56 Comment From Ricky I know Taijuan Walker isn’t a prospect anymore, but do you see a breakout. I know Spring Training, but he looked different/better yesterday than his previous stints in the majors. 12:56 Kiley McDaniel: Just command, consistency and health. You can notice this stuff on TV. I deputize you to decide the answer to this question. Go and be fruitful, chat readers! 12:57 Comment From Vanderbilt Commodores based on what you know about Sanchez do you believe he should be starting or closing for the Jays in 2015? Also will in be difficult to transition him back to starting if he is a closer. I see similarities to Daniel Bard 12:58 Kiley McDaniel: I think he’s more of a reliever long-term, but too early to give up on starter, because he’s in that range where a mental and/or mechanical fix may unlock the starter-ness within him. Some guys don’t transition well because they should be starters, and he may be that kind of guy. I’d relieve him this year and see if he might be that guy. I’ve seen him sit 95-99 for 4 innings, so it’s not like he loses the zip on his fastball over long outings. Could still go either way. 12:58 Comment From Hilarys Email Server Do you think Taylor Featherston will get 300 ABs this year in the majors? 12:59 Kiley McDaniel: Probable more around 200 PA, but sure, that’s possible. 12:59 Comment From Which Jays prospect outside the top 10 has the highest ceiling? Which teams fans are the most aggro? 12:59 Kiley McDaniel: Phillies? Would that be aggro or just angry? Heard some rumblings about felony fraud, too. 1:00 Kiley McDaniel: Also been getting a lot of weird emails bouncing back to me that I didn’t send 1:00 Comment From Vilnius If Wieters walks after this season, how far away is Cisco from helping the Orioles? 1:00 Kiley McDaniel: High-A this year, so probably 3. 1:00 Comment From Bart What’s your opinion of Steven Souza for this season? 1:00 Kiley McDaniel: Over/under 2.0 WAR, chance to go as high as 3. Has the tools. http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… 1:00 Comment From Rick Hahn What did you think of my recent July 2nd coup: Alfaro, Nunez, Mercedes? 1:01 Kiley McDaniel: Solid group, but it’s still early so we won’t know much for a few years 1:01 Comment From mtsw If you had to collude with a player to fake an injury to send him to the DL for roster management purposes, which injury would you choose? 1:01 Kiley McDaniel: The D’Brickashaw Ferguson of MLB injuries http://sports.espn.go.com/m… 1:02 Comment From hack Talk to me about Carlos Rondon? Do the sox bring players up if warranted? Does he have enough stuff to beat the current #5 and will his stuff work in MLB this year? 1:02 Kiley McDaniel: Yes x2. He’s really good. http://www.fangraphs.com/bl… 1:02 Comment From Pat Any news on Andy Ibanez? How are Yadier Alvares’ chances of being able to sign pre July 2 looking? 1:02 Kiley McDaniel: No new news on those two 1:02 Comment From GSon Geovanny Urshela had a break 2014 between AA and AAA.. His defense is on par with guys like Arenado and Wright.. His bat has pop, arm has zing.. Why no love from “those that know” regarding him as a top prospect? 1:02 Kiley McDaniel: Plate discipline issues holding back the offense. That’s it, really. Solid 45 FV. 1:03 Comment From Bill The other day I was reminded about Kenny Diekroeger. I know he is with KC, but whatever happened to him? Wasn’t he a big name out of HS prior to Stanford? 1:03 Kiley McDaniel: Athlete that never really figured out baseball/hitting 1:03 Comment From Mitchell Braves were working Peraza out at centerfield today. Is that to make room for Oliviera and would you rather have Peraza at second base or centerfield? And can Olviera play other positions besides 2b and still be valuable? 1:03 Kiley McDaniel: May as well let him play both if you have holes in both spots. Only smart to create versatility. 1:03 Comment From Quinn Read that Lorenzen is a possible bullpen option for the Reds right from the get-go. Good idea or should they let him develop as a starter? 1:04 Kiley McDaniel: Should let him develop, but might have a 70 FB and 60 SL in short stints. Upper 90’s as reliever in college. Don’t think they’ll do that, though. 1:04 Comment From GSon you can’t beat Sicnarf Loopstock.. (Sicharf = francis backwards) 1:04 Kiley McDaniel: A leading contender 1:04 Kiley McDaniel: Sthervin Matos is a good one too http://www.milb.com/player/… 1:05 Comment From John what does dom smith need to do this season to match where he was selected? 1:06 Kiley McDaniel: FYI, was just told/tweeted that Moncada presser is looking like it’ll happen Friday. 1:06 Kiley McDaniel: Hit homers and keep making contact 1:06 Comment From Andy Even if Olivera agrees to a deal sometime this week, will he play on Opening Day? The holdups with Moncada and Toscano make me a little bit wary. Or are those situations irrelevant? 1:06 Kiley McDaniel: Won’t act like I can predict how paperwork will go 1:08 Comment From Carlos Rodon I should really get started on developing a fourth pitch, any ideas? 1:08 Kiley McDaniel: I would call it the cankle 1:09 Comment From Ben Can you throw some cold water on Yankees fans clamoring for Refsnyder to start every day at 2B. C’mon…hit ’em with that truth bomb 1:09 Kiley McDaniel: He might be a 50 FV this year…was that cold enough? 1:09 Comment From Josh from the Chi Any info regarding the White Sox and July 2nd? 1:09 Kiley McDaniel: Yes! 1:09 Comment From Mook Michael Taylor looks real to me. Break out candidate for me. 1:09 Kiley McDaniel: I never said he was a hologram 1:10 Comment From Homer Blake Rutherford or Ronald Washington 1:10 Kiley McDaniel: Blake 1:10 Comment From Proswagonist Have you heard any interesting early spring training stories on a top prospect that you can share with us? 1:10 Kiley McDaniel: https://twitter.com/RhettBo… 1:10 Kiley McDaniel: More Sano stories! 1:10 Comment From Guest What sort of medical test had been holding Moncada up for a week? Do they not actually pay the lab or something…. 1:11 Kiley McDaniel: It’s like 75% of covering the Cuban market is explaining legal precedents and how fast paperwork is expected to finish. I wish it was more than 1% broken spanish asking about video games and snow. 1:11 Comment From Willy Garcia What are your thoughts on the Rule V Draft? 1:12 Kiley McDaniel: It’s actually the Rule 5 draft, V isn’t used in any official documents #actually 1:12 Kiley McDaniel: Fun distraction/ice breaker for winter meetings drunk lobby chats but usually not much to it. Jason Garcia story was fun, though. 1:12 Comment From Juice As an evaluator, is it ever possible to truly get a feel on players that could defect from Cuba, or is it simply something that is impossible to predict given the lengths some have to go to to get of the island? And, for a followup, any ideas on the next big names that could come over? 1:13 Kiley McDaniel: More of trying to get enough of a feel to be comfortable, but rarely are you as certain as you are with domestic players. Also, you should never be certain with any player of any age, but that’s the allure when you have lots of information 1:13 Comment From Ben Are any teams planning a big $30 million spending spree this July 2? If not, what’s gonna be the biggest outlay? 1:14 Kiley McDaniel: Nope. Maybe half that? 1:14 Comment From WoeIsMe Kiley; I am 27, and the first ever date of my life stood me up last night. To make matters worse, I am in a prospects chat and my team is the Tigers. What should I do to console myself? 1:14 Kiley McDaniel: Yup, these are my readers.