AL Championship Series Preview: Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees

For the sixth consecutive season, the Astros are in the American League Championship Series, and for the third time in that span, they’ll face the Yankees for a chance to play in the World Series. They beat the Yankees in seven games in 2017 before advancing to defeat the Dodgers, victories now tainted by the subsequent revelations regarding their use of illegal electronic sign stealing (which, yes, included the postseason). Amid further allegations of sign-stealing, they beat the Yankees in six games in 2019 before losing to the Nationals in the World Series. Suffice it to say, this is not a friendly rivalry, though the Yankees have publicly downplayed its relevance as it pertains to this matchup.

Both of the Astros’ ALCS victories over the Yankees came with A.J. Hinch at the helm, but Dusty Baker has taken over since. He’s trying to take them back to the World Series for the second season in a row — they lost to the Braves in six games last year — and secure the first championship of his 25-year career as a manager. The 73-year-old Baker would surpass 72-year-old Jack McKeon as the oldest manager to win a World Series, but first things first, the Astros have to get there. After winning an AL-high 106 games and securing home-field advantage for as long as they’re still playing, the Astros swept the Mariners in a Division Series much closer than its three-games-to-none outcome suggests, with the games decided by a total of four runs and the two bookend games won in Houston’s final half-inning; the finale extended to 18 innings and ended with a 1-0 score via Jeremy Peña‘s home run. Yordan Alvarez was the big star in the series, hitting a walk-off three-run homer in Game 1 to complete a comeback from a 7-3 deficit and then a two-run, go-ahead shot in Game 2; his seven RBIs accounted for more than half of Houston’s 13 runs. Alvarez (4-for-15), Alex Bregman (5-for-15 with a double and a homer) and Yuli Gurriel (6-for-15 with a homer) together accounted for 15 of the Astros’ 28 hits, masking Jose Altuve’s 0-for-16 performance. Meanwhile, a dominant Astros’ bullpen combined to allow just one run and nine hits in 20.1 innings, with a total of eight relievers combining to strike out 23 batters while walking only five.

Where the Astros swept their way into the ALCS, the 99-win Yankees not only had to go the distance against the Guardians but needed an extra day to do so because rain on Monday night forced the second postponement of the series. Stellar work from Gerrit Cole in his two starts, a strong start from Nestor Cortes on three days of rest, some very good work by a banged-up bullpen, and a 9-3 advantage in home runs — including three by newcomer Harrison Bader and two apiece by Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton — helped to elevate the Yankees past the upstart Guardians. They didn’t have much time to celebrate on Tuesday night; inside of an hour after the final out, the plastic sheets protecting the clubhouse from the spray of champagne were taken down so that the players could fly to Houston.

While this is the Yankees’ sixth consecutive trip to the postseason and fifth under manager Aaron Boone, they haven’t been back to the World Series since 2009, when they won their 27th championship. They’ve lost all four of their subsequent ALCS appearances since, and have been unable to slay the dragon from Houston not only in the aforementioned 2017 and ’19 matchups but also in ’15, when they lost the Wild Card Game at home.

Rotation

The Astros haven’t played since Saturday, and come in well-rested and able to line their rotation up however they desire. Baker has officially announced only Verlander; I’ve pencilled in the other starters based on how Houston rolled them out in the ALDS, after which Baker confirmed that Javier would have started Game 4 had the Mariners won Game 3.

For Game 1, Taillon will make his first start since October 4; the Yankees were prepared to start him in Game 5 of the ALDS, but the series’ second rainout restored Cortes’ ability to start on three days of rest. Note that because of the compressed schedule caused by the lockout, for this series there’s no travel day between the if-necessary Games 5 and 6, which means that the only way Cole can make two starts is to take one — either Game 2 on Thursday or a potential Game 7 next Wednesday — on short rest. I’m assuming the Yankees will kick that can down the road so he gets the guaranteed start on normal rest, and stay on turn with the rest of their starters. That means Severino would be starting on four days of rest for Games 2 and 6, Cole on five days for Game 3 and then potentially three for Game 7, Cortes on four for Game 4, and Taillon on four for Game 5. This is a less-than-ideal configuration for the Yankees because the downgrade from Cortes to Cole for a second start is a big one, and it may very well wind up as the difference-maker in this series.

The 39-year-old Verlander is coming off an historic season — the best for any Tommy John surgery recipient in the back half of his 30s — and one that will probably garner him a third Cy Young award. Despite missing 18 days late in the season due to a right calf injury, he led the AL in ERA, xERA, and WAR (6.4) while ranking third in FIP and fifth in K-BB% (23.4%). Though he didn’t miss as many bats as in his pre-surgery heyday, batters slugged .285 or lower against all four of his offerings; his four-seam fastball’s Statcast run value of -24 runs (24 runs prevented) was the majors’ best. He was hell on left-handed hitters, holding them to a .201 wOBA, compared to a .243 against right-handers.

In his four regular season starts after returning, Verlander allowed just four runs in 21 innings and was lifted after throwing five no-hit innings twice, but in his Division Series start, the Mariners pummeled him for 10 hits and six runs in four innings. His fastball and curve were both hammered, with the latter not drawing a single whiff. For what it’s worth, he told reporters that upon reviewing his ALDS dud, he had identified some “deep mechanical stuff” related to his calf that needed adjustment, but refused to offer further details.

Valdez is coming off a pretty special season in which he set a major league record with 25 consecutive quality starts, only two of which were of the six-inning, three-run variety. The 28-year-old lefty made his first All-Star team and led the league in innings (0.2 more than Cole) and groundball rate while ranking sixth in ERA and FIP and seventh in xERA while avoiding the opposite-field contact that has often bedeviled him. He throws his sinker nearly half the time, but held hitters to a .269 SLG or lower on his three secondary offerings, including a .145 AVG/.195 SLG on his curve and .119 AVG/.202 SLG on his cutter. Platoon-wise, he held lefties to a .236 wOBA (down 84 points from the limited sample in 2021), and righties to a .280 mark. In ALDS Game 2, he threw 5.2 innings, allowing two runs while striking out six.

McCullers was limited to eight regular season starts due to a forearm strain, but pitched exceptionally well after returning in mid-August, allowing two or fewer runs in seven of those starts. He held the Mariners to two hits, two walks and no runs in the first six innings of Houston’s elimination-o-thon while throwing his slider — a pitch that held hitters to a .185 AVG/.222 SLG during the regular season, with similarly meager numbers in 2021 — a whopping 52% of the time, and turning to his sinker just 14% of the time.

The 25-year-old Javier, who totaled 19 starts in 2020-21, began the year in the Astros’ bullpen and was kept on a short leash after joining the rotation in late April, but made 25 starts in what has to be considered a breakout season. Despite ranking 30th in innings among AL starters and falling 13.1 short of qualifying for the ERA title, he placed seventh in strikeouts (194) and in a virtual tie with Shohei Ohtani for the top strikeout rate (33.2%) among those with at least 140 innings. At that cutoff, he also ranked sixth in ERA and had the top xERA, nearly a quarter-run lower than Verlander. He sports an outstanding fastball-slider combo, holding hitters to a .183 AVG/.326 SLG with a high-spin four-seamer that averages 93.5 mph and a .121 AVG/.223 SLG with the slider; he produced whiff rates of 27.3% on the former and 39.4% on the latter. He threw just 1.1 inning in the ALDS, serving up a solo homer to Eugenio Suárez in Game 1, and while he has 12 games of postseason experience, this will be his first start.

As for the Yankees, Taillion is their most contact-oriented starter; he ranked 14th out of 22 AL ERA qualifiers in strikeout rate but finished in a virtual tie with Verlander for the third-lowest walk rate. He’s evolved from a groundballer in his Pittsburgh days to a fly baller as a Yankee, increasingly favoring his four-seamer and cutter instead of his sinker. His best pitch is his curveball, which held batters to a .170 AVG/.230 SLG and -8 runs. In his lone appearance in the ALDS, he failed to retire any of the three hitters he faced in the 10th inning of Game 2, but keep in mind that was the first relief appearance of his six-year major league career.

Severino, after throwing just 18 major league innings from 2019-21 due to injuries, looked very good at times during the first half of the season before missing 10 weeks due to a strained latissimus dorsi. He returned to close the regular season on a reassuring note, with seven no-hit innings against the Rangers in his third start back, and flashed his dominant form in ALDS Game 2, striking out six without a walk in 5.2 innings; the last of his three runs allowed came via an inherited runner. During the regular season, Severino missed plenty of bats, and his four-seamer was back to averaging 96.3 mph (down 1.3 mph from 2018 but up from his wilderness years); he pumped it at 97.6 mph in the ALDS, topping out at 99.9 and getting a chase rate of 45% on the pitch. Batters managed just a .186 AVG/.377 SLG against the four-seamer during the regular season, with a run value of -11. His slider has been exceptional as well (.169 AVG, .303 SLG, 41.6% whiff, -6 runs).

Cole led the AL in strikeouts (257) but also homers (33) while posting his highest ERA since 2017, when he was still a Pirate, and his highest full-season FIP since that year as well. His scuffles down the stretch (5.22 ERA, 5.26 FIP, 2.76 HR/9 over his last five starts), which may have owed something to the shape of his four-seam fastball, were much less apparent during his two Division Series starts, during which he allowed two homers but only three runs in 13.1 innings while striking out 16 and walking just two.

The Astros were the majors’ top team against four-seamers, producing a .378 wOBA, and they placed sixth against those 95 mph or higher, with a .329 wOBA — relevant given that Cole averages 97.8 mph on his. Batters hit the pitch for a .229 AVG/.420 SLG during the regular season; its -8 run value was down from -17 last year. Cole’s slider remains his best pitch, holding hitters to a .160 AVG/.280 SLG, but as Esteban Rivera noted, he’s begun emphasizing his curveball more often, throwing it 26% in the ALDS, up from 10.8% in the regular season. That could help keep Astros hitters off balance, but they ranked among the majors’ top six teams in facing both breaking pitches in terms of wOBA (.294 against the curve, .289 against the slider).

The much less overpowering Cortes is the Yankees’ lone lefty starter and has arguably become the team’s top starter, period. While he missed qualifying for the ERA title, among AL pitchers with at least 140 innings, he tied for fourth in xERA while ranking fifth in ERA and ninth in FIP. He does a fantastic job of limiting hard contact, particularly with his four-seamer (which averages 91.8 mph) and cutter (86.9 mph). Batters hit the fastball for just a .169 AVG/.239 SLG, and its -22 run value tied for second in the majors; meanwhile, they hit for a .191 AVG/.366 SLG against the cutter, which had a -9 run value. The Astros managed just a .286 wOBA against cutters, which was in a virtual tie for the majors’ lowest mark; that they’ll probably see Cortes in only one start is yet another way in which the rotation setup plays to their advantage.

Bullpen

By the numbers, the bullpens of the Astros and Yankees ranked first and second in the AL in both ERA (2.80 and 2.97, respectively) and FIP (3.05 and 3.35), with Houston’s 28.5% strikeout rate and New York’s 0.58 homers per nine each topping the league. Ryan Pressly is the Astros’ closer, coming off a strong season in which he delivered a 2.98 ERA, 2.33 FIP, and 35.7% strikeout rate while saving 33 of 37 chances. He’s a high-spin master with a pair of devastating breaking balls that held hitters to wOBAs in the .160s. That he missed time this year due to knee inflammation and neck spasms led to Rafael Montero netting 14 saves as well while pitching to a 2.37 ERA and 2.64 FIP and generating the unit’s highest groundball rate (52.9%). Reflecting his years trying to crack the Mets’ starting rotation, Montero mixes four pitches into his arsenal, though he’s almost exclusively four-seam/changeup against lefties, whom he held to a .232 wOBA (.250 for righties). That changeup held hitters of both hands to a .133 AVG/.183 SLG.

Righties Héctor Neris and Ryne Stanek are Baker’s other high-leverage guys. Neris pitched better than his 3.72 ERA suggests, striking out 30% of all hitters and posting a 2.35 FIP thanks in large part to a splitter that held them to a .173 AVG/.247 SLG and a 52.6% whiff rate. Stanek also throws a splitter that offsets a high-spin four-seamer that averages 98.3 mph; the heater held hitters to a .168 AVG/.235 SLG, the split .189 AG/.208 SLG. He pitched to a 1.15 ERA, but his 13.8% walk rate inflated his FIP to 3.02. Bryan Abreu put together an excellent season (1.95 ERA, 2.12 FIP) in middle relief while combining a 35.5% strikeout rate with a 48.5% groundball rate.

While the Astros aren’t carrying a single lefty reliever, Pressly, Montero, Neris, Stanek, and Abreu all held lefties to a .240 wOBA or lower. Houston’s bullpen will have starters Luis Garcia (who turned in an invaluable five shutout innings in ALDS Game 3) and José Urquidy available for multi-inning assignments, as well as rookie Hunter Brown.

As the postseason arrived, the Yankees’ bullpen was in complete disarray. A unit that had lost Chad Green and Michael King to season-ending injuries was also without Clay Holmes, Ron Marinaccio, and Wandy Peralta, each of whom ended the regular season sidelined by injuries. What’s more, not only had the ineffective Aroldis Chapman effectively ended his Yankees career by failing to show for a mandatory workout but Scott Effross went down in need of Tommy John surgery just as the ALDS roster was being assembled. Marinaccio is still out due to a shin injury, but the Yankees’ bullpen pitched to a 2.70 ERA in the ALDS, striking out 18 and walking just three in 16.2 innings. Holmes thew 3.1 scoreless innings in four appearances, while Peralta set a record by making five appearances; he allowed two runs in six innings while striking out seven without a walk, saving Game 4 and closing out Game 5 as well. Whether Boone calls upon the righty Holmes or the lefty Peralta — or somebody else, as this is still a closer-by-committee situation — to get the final outs will depend more on availability and matchups than any predetermined roles.

Holmes rode his devastating sinker-slider combo to a team-high 20 saves, and made the AL All-Star team on the strength of a dominant first half (1.31 ERA, 2.00 FIP, 27% K%) before struggling in the second (4.84 ERA, 4.41 FIP, 21.6% K%) amid back spasms and a shoulder capsule strain, the latter of which required a cortisone shot during the team’s final homestand. Peralta, the unit’s lone lefty (Lucas Luetge, who did not pitch in the ALDS, was replaced) used his sinker-changeup-slider mix to stifle lefties (.194 wOBA) and righties (.266). Despite having just nine career saves (including four this year, third on the team), he’s looked unflappable in the big moments.

Holmes, Peralta, the finally healthy Jonathan Loáisiga and deadline acquisition Lou Trivino are all sinkerballers, with groundball rates of 52% or higher for the year. Loáisiga can still pump it into the high 90s, but his strikeout rate dipped from last year’s 24.4 to 18.2%. His ERA nearly doubled (to 4.17) and his FIP added nearly a full run (to 3.57), but he was effective down the stretch and delivered five scoreless innings in the ALDS. Trivino pitched much better (1.66 ERA, 3.44 FIP) after coming over from Oakland in the Frankie Montas trade. Montas, who was lit for a 6.35 ERA in eight post-trade starts, hasn’t pitched since September 16 due to recurrent shoulder inflammation and isn’t stretched out to start. He, Domingo Germán, and Clarke Schmidt can all presumably provide multiple innings, which may particularly be necessary in a situation where Taillon works a shorter start. Righties Miguel Castro and Greg Weissert round out the unit but will likely be confined to low-leverage situations.

Offense

The Astros had one of the AL’s top offenses, a unit that combines power, patience and contact skills, and gives opposing pitchers very few places to hide. Every starter besides Gurriel, the first baseman, and the catching tandem of Martín Maldonado and Christian Vázquez produced a wRC+ of 100 or better. Five players hit at least 20 homers and four of them are absolute studs, starting with Alvarez, whose 185 wRC+ ranked second in the AL to Judge and whose slash stats (.306/.406/.613) ranked fourth, second, and third, respectively, with his 37 homers also third. Alvarez annihilates four-seamers, sinkers, sliders, and changeups, but hit just .146 and slugged .171 against cutters, which are an integral part of Cortes’ arsenal and make occasional appearances in those of Cole (albeit with a .578 SLG), Severino, and Taillon. He’s capable of crushing opponents’ dreams, as evidenced by his Division Series performance.  

As for the other big boppers, prior to his ALDS 0-fer, Altuve had his best season in half a decade, hitting .300/.387/.533 (164 wRC+) with 28 homers, 18 steals, and 6.6 WAR while striking out only 14.4% of the time. Bregman actually walked more often than he struck out (13.3% vs. 11.7%) while rebounding from an off 2021 to hit .259/.366/.454 (136 wRC+) with 23 homers. Kyle Tucker matched last year’s total of 30 homers while swiping 25 bags (the AL’s fifth-highest total) in 29 attempts and hitting .257/.330/.478 (129 wRC+). He’s one of the roster’s two lefties, along with Alvarez; neither has much of a platoon split (120 wRC+ vs. LHP and 134 vs. RHP this year for Tucker, 163/165 for Alvarez). 

Elsewhere in the lineup, Peña did a commendable job replacing Carlos Correa, totaling 3.4 WAR thanks to his strong defense, power (22 homers), and baserunning (11-for-13 in steals, 3.7 baserunning runs), but a 3.9% walk rate limited him to a .289 OBP, and he slumped in the second half. Gurriel, the AL batting champion last year at age 37, slipped from .319/.383/.462 (132 wRC+) to .242/.288/.360 (85 wRC+) as his barrel rate fell to a meager 1.9%. Chas McCormick is the regular center fielder and a better hitter (.245/.332/.407, 114 wRC+) than Jake Meyers (.227/.269/313, 65 wRC+), the better defender. At DH, Baker has remained very patient with Trey Mancini, who slumped to a 77 wRC+ after hitting for a 114 wRC+ with the Orioles while striking out much more often; Aledmys Díaz (96 wRC+, 12 homers) is the alternative and by far the best bench bat on the roster.

On the Yankees’ side, Judge is the biggest bat in the game, having hit an ungodly .311/.425/.686 with 62 homers and 131 RBI, missing winning the Triple Crown by about five points of batting average. Both his 207 wRC+ and his 11.4 WAR are the majors’ highest since Barry Bonds in 2004, but he has scuffled lately as teams have pitched him more carefully; though he homered twice in the ALDS, he went 4-for-20 with just one walk and 11 strikeouts.

While the Yankees had 10 players reach double digits in homers, including Gleyber Torres with 24, Stanton with 31, and Anthony Rizzo with 32, they’re shorter on above-average producers compared to years past. Rizzo hit .224/.338/.480 (132 wRC+), and while Torres and Stanton both had a 115 wRC+, the latter is still dealing with an epic all-or-nothing slump. He’s homered nine times since returning from the IL on August 25 including one in each of the team’s last three regular season games and two in the ALDS, but hit just .165/.266/.367 over the last leg of the regular season and was 2-for-16 with six strikeouts against Cleveland. What’s more, they’ll be without DJ LeMahieu (116 wRC+) due to a ligament injury to his right second toe, which has affected his swing. His absence made the emergence of Bader in the ALDS a particularly welcome development. After hitting .217/.245/.283 without a homer in just 15 regular season games since being acquired from the Cardinals on August 2 (he was recovering from plantar fasciitis at the time), he went 4-for-15 with three homers in the series while allowing Judge to return to right field on a full-time basis.

During the ALDS, 23-year-old rookie Oswaldo Cabrera, who hit .247/.312/.429 (111 wRC+) in 171 PA over the final third of the season, started three games in left field and two at shortstop taking over for Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who hit for just an 85 wRC+ during the regular season and made enough mistakes to try Boone’s patience against Cleveland. It can’t be good news for IKF — but it’s welcome news for Yankees fans — that 22-year-old Oswald Peraza, a true shortstop, with a stronger arm than Cabrera, has been added to the ALCS roster. After batting .259/.329/.448 (106 wRC+) at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, he hit .306/.404/.429 in 57 PA for the Yankees. Boone could start either of the two rookies at shortstop, though if Cabrera’s there, the loss of Aaron Hicks to a season-ending knee injury in Game 5 could put Stanton in left field for the first time since July 21; such a move would also allow him to DH Matt Carpenter, who struck out in two big ALDS spots, his first appearances since returning from a fractured left foot that cost him the final two months of an incredible bounce-back season in which he hit .305/.412/.727 with 15 homers in 154 PA. Rounding out the lineup, Josh Donaldson hit a disappointing .222/.308/.374 (97 wRC+) but played strong defense, while catchers Jose Trevino (91 wRC+) and Kyle Higashioka (83 wRC+) are OK offensively for catchers and capable of running into one now and again, but combined to go 1-for-14 in the ALDS.

Defense

The Astros have one of the strongest defenses in the league, having led the AL in Statcast Runs Above Average (26), placed second to the Yankees in defensive efficiency (.719) by a single point, and ranked third in Defensive Runs Saved (67). That’s not to say that they’re strong at every position, however. The right side of the infield ain’t what it used to be, with former Gold Glove winners Altuve (-15 DRS, 1 RAA) and Gurriel (-2 DRS, -7 RAA) drawing mixed reviews at best. On the left side, Peña (15 DRS, 5 RAA) is outstanding, Bregman (-4 DRS, 4 RAA) about average. In the outfield, Tucker (13 DRS, 4 RAA) is a standout, McCormick and Meyers are both very good in center, and Alvarez (5 DRS, -7 RAA) is another player with very mixed reviews.

Behind the plate, Maldonado is something of a poster boy for Nichols’ Law of Catcher Defense, as he’s very well-regarded for his ability to handle the pitching staff. He was about average via our pitch framing metric (-0.8), but much better regarded by that of Baseball Prospectus (6.6), and a bit above average in throwing (0.5). Vázquez was above average by both framing measures (4.9 via FanGraphs, 4.7 via BP) and had the same rating for his throwing. 

The Yankees led the AL in defensive efficiency (.720) and DRS (129) while tying the Guardians for second in RAA (16). The Trevino/Higashioka tandem was 24.4 runs above average in framing via our metrics, with the former leading the majors at 19 runs, more than the combined total of the two backstops who tied for second at 9.1, Jonah Heim and Adley Rutschman. Elsewhere, DRS loves Torres, (9), Donaldson (8), and Kiner-Falefa (10). While IKF’s mistakes have him out of favor, he’s got a much stronger arm than Cabrera, who at both shortstop and in left field during the ALDS turned several popups and soft fly balls into misadventures. The outfield defense is stronger with Bader in center instead of Judge, who made 74 starts there, but having either Stanton or Carpenter out there is probably a liability.