AL Division Series Preview: New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

© Dennis Schneidler-USA TODAY Sports

Will the real 2022 Yankees please stand up? Projected to win 91 games, they spent the first half of the season looking a whole lot stronger than that, winning 61 of their first 84 (a .726 winning percentage and a 118-win pace) and building a 15.5-game lead in the American League East. Injuries and a disappearing offense — besides Aaron Judge — led to an epic slump as the team went 18-31 (.367) from July 9 to September 3 while that lead dwindled to four games. They righted the ship by going 20-9 the rest of the way, finishing 99-63 with their first division title since 2019 (and just their second of the past decade). While Judge set a franchise and American League record with 62 homers and several injured players returned, major questions linger as they attempt to win their first World Series since 2009.

Meanwhile, before issuing a two-game sweep to the Rays in a Wild Card Series capped by Oscar Gonzalez’s 15th-inning walk-off home run, the Guardians — the majors’ youngest team, with a weighted average of 26 years — surged down the stretch as well, going a major league-best 23-6 from September 5 onward. At 92-70, they ran away with the AL Central and were the division’s only team to finish above .500. Of course, as I’ve noted before, there’s very little correlation between a team’s September performance and their October success:

Postseason Team September vs. October Comparison
Category 1996-2021 2012-2021
Regular Season Win% to Postseason Win% 0.25 0.24
Regular Season Win% to Postseason Wins 0.15 0.16
Regular Season Win% to Postseason Series Wins 0.10 0.17
September Win% to Postseason Win% 0.11 0.11
September Win% to Postseason Wins 0.06 0.10
September Win% to Postseason Series Wins 0.00 0.04
2020 data not included due to shortened season and expanded playoff format. September = all regular season games after August 31, including those in early October.

In research undertaken for a piece that I stranded on the back burner, I found that even over larger timeframes ranging from a team’s final 40 to 81 games, their segmented winning percentage had a lower correlation to their postseason winning percentage than full-season records did, maxing out with correlations over the last 81 game of 0.13 for the 1996-2021 span, and 0.17 for the 2012-21 span.

Rotation

Yankees vs. Guardians Probable Starting Pitchers
Gm Yankees IP K% BB% HR/9 GB% BABIP Barrel% HH% ERA xERA FIP
1 Gerrit Cole 200.2 32.4% 6.3% 1.48 42.4% .268 9.5% 39.9% 3.50 3.31 3.47
2 Nestor Cortes 158.1 26.5% 6.2% 0.91 33.5% .232 5.3% 34.5% 2.44 2.70 3.13
3 Luis Severino 102.0 27.7% 7.4% 1.24 44.3% .237 6.9% 41.3% 3.18 2.94 3.70
? Jameson Taillon 177.1 20.7% 4.4% 1.32 40.1% .276 8.3% 35.7% 3.91 4.20 3.94
Gm Guardians IP K% BB% HR/9 GB% BABIP Barrel% HH% ERA xERA FIP
1 Cal Quantrill 186.1 16.6% 6.1% 1.01 42.1% .278 7.5% 35.6% 3.38 4.31 4.12
2 Shane Bieber 200.0 25.0% 4.6% 0.81 48.2% .287 7.2% 42.9% 2.88 3.51 2.87
3 Triston McKenzie 191.1 25.6% 5.9% 1.18 32.7% .237 9.8% 40.4% 2.96 3.54 3.59
? Aaron Civale 97.0 24.1% 5.4% 1.30 41.2% .297 7.5% 40.0% 4.92 3.80 3.87

Because of the off days after each of the first two games, Yankees manager Aaron Boone can bring Cole back on normal rest for Game 4, but would need to turn to Cortes on three days of rest if there’s a Game 5. That’s the way he’s leaning, though alternately, he could start Taillon in Game 4 and have Cole on five days of rest in Game 5. While Guardians manager Terry Francona could squeeze a total of four starts out of Bieber and McKenzie if he was willing to throw each on short rest once, he’ll instead turn to Quantrill, who would have started Game 3 of the Wild Card Series, followed by Bieber on five days of rest and McKenzie on six, and then probably Civale (who appears to have the upper hand on noted ground-puncher Zach Plesac); that would leave Quantrill on five days of rest or Bieber on three for Game 5.

Cole led the AL in strikeouts (257) but also homers (33) while posting his highest ERA since 2017, when he was still a Pirate, and his highest full-season FIP since that year as well. He scuffled down the stretch, with a 5.22 ERA, 5.26 FIP, and 2.76 HR/9 over his last five starts, four of which were on the road. His recent struggles owe something to the shape of his four-seam fastball, as Michael Ajeto wrote at Baseball Prospectus; while he’s throwing as hard as ever, it’s from a slightly higher arm slot, with a bit less extension, spin and movement. All told, batters hit the pitch for a .229 AVG and .420 SLG this year, as its Statcast run value deteriorated from -36 runs in 2019 (36 runs prevented) to -17 last year and -8 this year. It’s worth noting that the Guardians were generally one of the majors’ least productive teams against four-seamers overall but quite productive against those 95 mph or higher; where their .317 wOBA against all four-seamers ranked 27th, they were 10th at .319 against the faster segment. Meanwhile, their .280 wOBA against sliders ranked 10th, but Cole’s slider remains his best pitch, holding hitters to a .160 AVG, .280 SLG, and .206 wOBA.

The much less overpowering Cortes — likely the only lefty to start for either side in this series, more on which below — has become the Yankees’ best starter; while he missed qualifying for the ERA title, among AL pitchers with at least 150 innings, he tied for third in xERA while ranking fifth in ERA and eighth in FIP. He does a fantastic job of limiting hard contact, particularly with his four-seamer (which averages 91.8 mph) and cutter (86.9 mph). Batters hit the fastball for just a .169 AVG and .239 SLG, and its -22 run value tied for second in the majors; meanwhile, they hit for a .191 AVG and .366 SLG against the cutter, which had a -9 run value. The Guardians saw fewer cutters than any other team (5% of all pitches) and were 20th with a .317 wOBA against them.

Severino, after throwing just 18 major league innings from 2019-21 due to injuries, looked very good at times during the first half of the season and closed on a reassuring note, with seven no-hit innings against the Rangers in his third start back following a 10-week absence due to a strained latissimus dorsi. He missed plenty of bats, and his four-seamer was back to averaging 96.3 mph (down 1.3 mph from 2018 but up from his wilderness years). Batters managed just a .186 AVG and .377 SLG against the pitch, with a run value of -11. His slider has been exceptional as well (.169 AVG, .303 SLG, 41.6% whiff, -6 runs).

Taillion, the most contact-oriented of the Yankees’ starters, has evolved from a groundballer in his Pittsburgh days to a fly baller as a Yankee. His best pitch is his curveball, which held batters to a .170 AVG, .230 SLG, .186 wOBA and -8 runs. The Guardians were particularly vulnerable to curveballs, ranking 21st with a .269 wOBA against them.

The Guardians’ starters are much less four-seam oriented than the Yankees starters. Quantrill is a sinkerballer who does a decent job of avoiding hard contact, but his 16.6% strikeout rate was the AL’s third-lowest at that 150-inning threshold, and his overall whiff rate dropped from 21.9% last year to 18.5% this year. His hard-hit rate placed him in the 69th percentile, his 87.6 average exit velocity in the 71st (though his barrel rate was in just the 44th). He complements his sinker with a good cutter and changeup; the cutter held hitters to a .235 AVG and .368 SLG, though its run value deteriorated from -11 runs in 2021 to -3 in ’22. Batters managed just a .189 AVG and .321 SLG against the changeup.

Bieber has not been able to replicate his 2020 AL Cy Young form, and after missing about half of last season due to a rotator cuff strain, he’s not throwing nearly as hard or missing as many bats; his average fastball velocity of 91.3 mph is down 1.5 mph from last year and 2.8 mph from 2020, while his strikeout rate has fallen from 41.1% to 33.1% to 25% in that span. His best pitch is his slider, which he throws 28.8% of the time; more consistent movement on the pitch drove his 2.48 second-half ERA. By Statcast’s run values, it’s his best (-11 runs) and one of three that’s well into the red (along with -8 on his curve and -7 on his cutter). Batters hit under .200 and slugged under .300 against both breaking pitches; he throws the slider more to righties and the curve more to lefties.

Bieber was brilliant in the Wild Card opener against the Rays, holding them to three hits, one run, and one walk in 7.2 innings while striking out eight. He threw 99 pitches and had 18 whiffs (10 via his slider, seven via the cutter), with a 36% CSW% overall. McKenzie shut out the Rays for six innings on just two hits and two walks, striking out eight as well. He got 13 whiffs on 98 pitches (seven via the four-seamer, four via the curve) with a 29% CSW%.

During the regular season, the 24-year-old McKenzie was the most four-seam oriented of Cleveland’s starters throwing the pitch — which averages a modest 92.5 mph with above-average spin (2,313 rpm) — 56% of the time. Batters didn’t do much with it (.203 AVG/.358 SLG) and did even less with his curve (.120 AVG/.203 SLG), the latter of which produced a 45% whiff rate; both pitches were exceptional by Statcast run values (-17 and -9, respectively). Not so with his slider (+11); that pitch was whacked for a .270 AVG and .500 SLG.

Civale was limited to 20 starts while making three separate trips to the IL for left glute soreness, a right wrist sprain, and right forearm inflammation. His early numbers were ugly, but he fared better after returning from the wrist injury, with a 3.35 ERA, 3.42 FIP, and 27.5% strikeout rate over his final eight starts from August 10 onward while holding batters to a 3.6% barrel rate. His cutter was exceptional last year (.235 wOBA, -14 runs) but only so-so this year (.349 wOBA, -3 runs), though his curve remained a very strong pitch, limiting batters to a .124 AVG, .238 SLG, and .184 wOBA.

Bullpens

By the numbers, the relief corps of the Yankees and Guardians ranked second and third in the AL in both ERA (2.97 and 3.05, respectively) and FIP (3.35 and 3.39), but the postseason finds the former — long a cornerstone of whatever title hopes New York harbors, dating back to the days of Wetteland and Rivera — in considerable disarray. Aroldis Chapman, their deposed $48 million closer, is for all intents and purposes an ex-Yankee after skipping a mandatory workout, not that he was even guaranteed a roster spot after pitching and pus-ing his way out of the team’s good graces. Chad Green and Michael King suffered season-ending injuries, and Clay Holmes, Ron Marinaccio, and Wandy Peralta each ended the regular season sidelined as well.

Holmes, who saved a team-high 20 games, made the AL All-Star team on the strength of a dominant first half (1.31 ERA, 2.00 FIP, 27% K%), struggled in the second (4.84 ERA, 4.41 FIP, 21.6% K%) on either side of an IL stint for back spasms, and received a cortisone shot in his shoulder during the team’s final homestand. His status is pending until after he throws batting practice on Monday afternoon. Marinaccio, a rookie who pitched his way into the circle of trust, is out until at least the ALCS due to a stress reaction in his right shin, but Peralta, the unit’s late-inning lefty, is good to go following a back issue; he stifled lefties to the tune of a .194 wOBA, holding righties to a .266 mark as well, and ranking third on the team in saves with four. A dozen Yankees notched at least one save this season as Boone dealt with a closer-by-committee situation.

Holmes, Peralta, the finally healthy Jonathan Loáisiga and deadline acquisition Lou Trivino are all sinkerballers, with groundball rates of 52% or higher for the year. Loáisiga can still pump it into the high 90s, but his strikeout rate dipped from last year’s 24.4 to 18.2%. His ERA nearly doubled (to 4.17) and his FIP added nearly a full run (to 3.57), but he was effective down the stretch and is an option to close; in fact, 12 Yankees notched at least one save as Boone went to committee. Trivino pitched much better (1.66 ERA, 3.44 FIP) after coming over from Oakland in the Frankie Montas trade. Fellow deadline acquisition Scott Effross, who pitched to a 2.54 ERA and 2.46 FIP for the year (which began with the Cubs), is another sinkerballer; he only had a 44.2% groundball rate, but on the strength of his slider and changeup struck out 27.1%. Lefty Lucas Luetge had almost no platoon split while pitching to a 2.67 EA and 3.03 FIP, but he’s generally a lower-leverage option. Clarke Schmidt is the all-important multi-inning guy, capable of going three or more frames if needed.

If you watched the Wild Card Series, you saw what a lights-out bullpen Cleveland has; the unit shut out the Rays for 10.1 innings, striking out 13 (36.1%) while allowing just four hits and three walks. Closer Emmanuel Clase, who pitched to a 1.36 ERA and 1.98 FIP during the regular season, converted 42 of 46 save chances. He averaged 99.5 mph with his cutter, against which batters hit .189 and slugged .245, and his slider was even tougher (.119 AVG, .174 SLG, 42.7% whiff rate); both pitches had double-digit values according to Statcast (-11 cutter, -10 fslider). Setup man James Karinchak, whose spin rate and general effectiveness took outsized hits when the sticky-stuff crackdown arrived, was back to effectiveness, posting a 2.06 ERA and 2.29 FIP while striking out 38.2%; batters hit just .133 and slugged .211 against his four-seamer, while his curve generated a 48.2% whiff rate.

Trevor Stephan, the team’s other high-leverage righty, is “the Best Reliever You’ve Never Heard of,” as Ben Clemens introduced him in August. He’s got a very effective splitter to go with a four-seamer that averages 96.5 mph as well as a good slider; batters hit .153, slugged .224, and whiffed on 54% of their swings against the split. Stephen, lefty Sam Hentges, and middleman Enyel De Los Santos all had FIPs of 2.63 or lower and strikeout rates of 28.4% or higher; the last of those may be in line for higher-leverage work with Nick Sandlin out due to a shoulder strain. Righty Eli Morgan is the multi-inning guy. Clemens called him “one of the best kept secrets in baseball” while describing his changeup, which at 75.9 mph is the majors’ lowest (16.2 mph slower than his four-seamer), as “ludicrous.” Batters hit .184 and slugged .391 against the pitch, which he complements with a low-90s fastball and slider.

Offenses

Yankees vs. Guardians Offensive Comparison
Team RS/G HR BB% K% AVG OBP SLG wRC+ wRC+ vs L wRC+ vs R
Yankees 4.98 254 10.1% 22.5% .241 .325 .426 115 119 113
AL Rk 1 1 1 8 8 2 2 2 2 2
Guardians 4.31 127 7.3% 18.2% .254 .316 .383 99 84 104
AL Rk 6 14 13 1 4 6 11 8 15 6

It’s here where the contrast between the two teams might be the greatest. The Guardians are the majors’ most contact-oriented team, with a big league-low Three True Outcomes percentage of 27.2%. They rarely strike out, hit for average (at least within the context of the current environment), and run the bases well (81.5% stolen base rate, 13.2 baserunning runs). The Yankees don’t strike out all that often, and aren’t great at baserunning (75.5% stolen base rate, -5.7 baserunning runs), but they do just about everything else better on offense, including homer; they doubled the Guardians’ total and had the league’s highest Three True Outcome rate (36.7%).

Judge is the biggest bat in the game, having hit an ungodly .311/.425/.686 with 62 homers and 131 RBI, missing winning the Triple Crown by about five points of batting average. Both his 207 wRC+ and his 11.4 WAR are the majors’ highest since Barry Bonds in 2004. But while the Yankees had 10 players reach double digits in homers, including Gleyber Torres with 24, Giancarlo Stanton with 31, and Anthony Rizzo with 32, they’re short on above-average producers compared to years past. Rizzo hit .224/.338/.480 (132 wRC+), and while Torres, Stanton, and DJ LeMahieu each had a wRC+ of 115 or 116, the last two of those three dealt with injuries and, for Stanton, an epic slump that may or may not be behind him; he homered in each of the season’s final three games, but hit just .165/.266/.367 with seven homers since returning from the IL on August 25. LeMahieu’s status for the series is in question due to lingering inflammation in his right second toe, which has affected his swing. He went 4-for-16 after missing 21 games in September, but has hit just .162/.215/.162 in 108 PA since August 7, without any extra-base hits. On Sunday, general manager Brian Cashman called him “obviously compromised.” If he’s on the roster it will likely be in a bench role, backing up Rizzo, Torres, and Josh Donaldson, who hit a disappointing .222/.308/.374 (97 wRC+) but played strong defense.

The Yankees do have a couple of positive developments. Twenty-three-year-old rookie Oswaldo Cabrera hit .247/.312/.429 (111 wRC+) in 171 PA over the final third of the season and has provided an alternative to the unproductive Aaron Hicks; he’ll likely play left field, with the late-arriving but healthy Harrison Bader in center and Judge back in right. Meanwhile, 36-year-old Matt Carpenter will be on the roster after missing the final two months of the season due to a fractured left foot; he hit an incredible .305/.412/.727 with 15 homers in 154 PA before going down. He could take DH playing time away from Stanton, with the other one available for a key moment off the bench, pinch-hitting for the light-hitting Isiah Kiner-Falefa (85 wRC+) with rookie Oswald Peraza (.306/.404/.429 in 57 PA) taking over shortstop duties, or swapping out Jose Trevino (91 wRC+) for Kyle Higashioka (83 wRC+) or vice-versa behind the plate.

A pair of six-win players anchor the Guardians lineup in switch-hitting third baseman José Ramírez and lefty-swinging second baseman Andrés Giménez; they ranked fourth and fifth in the AL in WAR, with totals of 6.2 and 6.1 respectively. The 30-year-old Ramírez — the only non-catcher on the team who’s not in his 20s — hit .280/.355/.514 with 29 homers, 20 steals and a 139 wRC+ while striking out just 12% of the time. The 24-year-old Giménez, the key piece in the Francisco Lindor trade, enjoyed a breakout season, hitting .297/.371/.466 with 17 homers, 20 steals and a 140 wRC+, up from last year’s 74.

The lineup also has a couple of impactful rookies at the outfield corners, namely 25-year-old Steven Kwan (.298/.373/.400, 124 wRC+) in left and the 24-year-old Gonzalez (.296/.327/.461, 122 wRC+) in right, and a very solid shortstop in Amed Rosario (.283/.312/.403, 103 wRC+). Lefty-swinging Josh Naylor is the only Guardian besides Ramírez with more than 17 homers; he hit 20 to go along with his .256/.319/.452 (117 wRC+) line, but he had a massive platoon split that included just a 53 wRC+ against lefties. Light-hitting righty Owen Miller (.243/.301/.351, 85 wRC+) is generally his platoon partner, but unfortunately not the weakest spot in a lineup that also includes center fielder Myles Straw (64 wRC+) and either Austin Hedges (42 wRC+) or Luke Maile (81 wRC+) catching. Miller got one start at DH in the Tampa Bay series, while 24-year-old rookie lefty Will Brennan, who hit .357/.400/.500 in 45 PA after batting .316/.367/.471 (122 wRC+) at Triple-A Columbus, got the other.

Regarding Cortes, it bears noting that the Guardians were terrible against lefties. It wasn’t just the usual platoon stuff, either: Among the righties, only Rosario and Gonzalez were above average (wRC+ of 126 and 107, respectively), while the switch-hitting Ramírez (97) was not, though he’s got a 121 career mark against them. Neither Miller (77 wRC+) nor Straw (88) was good, either, though the latter’s 57 wRC+ against righties was even worse. Among the lefties, Giménez hit a sizzling .336/.400/.487 (158 wRC+) in 128 PA against same-siders, but Kwan (85) was dreadful and Naylor downright unplayable.

Defenses

Both of these teams are strong afield. The Yankees led the AL in defensive efficiency (.720) and Defensive Runs Saved (129) while the Guardians were fourth in the former (.709) and second in the latter; the pair tied for second in Statcast Runs Above Average (16). One big separator of the two is that the Trevino/Higashioka tandem was 24.4 runs above average in framing via our metrics, with the former leading the majors at 19 runs, more than the combined total of the two backstops that tied for second at 9.1, Jonah Heim and Adley Rutschman. Hedges was 4.2 runs above average, Maile 0.5 below.

Elsewhere, DRS loves both Kiner-Falefa (10) and Donaldson (8) on the left side of the Yankees infield, as well as Torres at second (9), but by RAA, they combined for a more modest 3 runs. The outfield defense is no doubt stronger with Bader in center instead of Judge, who made 74 starts there; on that note, it’s a bad idea to run on Cabrera, who somehow had seven assists and 9 DRS in just 278.2 innings in the outfield. Speaking of outfield defense, DRS and RAA both love Straw and Kwan, who combined for 38 of the former and 21 of the latter. Giménez (16 DRS, RAA) is the standout in the infield, with Rosario drawing mixed reviews (6 DRS, -5 RAA) and the corners solid.

Much will be made about youth, experience, payroll disparity, strength of schedule, and New York’s 5-1 season series advantage, but if the Yankees’ starters pitch to their capabilities, and if the past six days have clarified their health issues, they’re simply much better set up for this series than the Guardians, who have the intended Wild Card Series participant disadvantage. That said, if their injury problems aren’t solved — particularly in their bullpen – the Yankees could be as vulnerable and subject to a disappointing end as their crosstown rivals.





Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jay_jaffe... and BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.

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Pepper Martin
1 year ago

I cannot remember a Yankee team that had this thin of a bullpen. As the article states, that has ALWAYS been their strength. At the beginning of the season, the Yankees’ bullpen depth chart went:

Chapman
Loaisiga
Green
Holmes
Peralta
Luetge
King
Castro

Now, ALL of those guys are either gone for the season or are in questionable health leading in to the playoffs except Loaisiga and Luetge. Boone has a history of not letting Yankee pitchers other than Cole and Masahiro Tanaka pitch past the 5th inning in the playoffs; he better get used to not sticking to that.

steveo
1 year ago
Reply to  Pepper Martin

Eh. It’s arguably deeper than most years. Sure there’s no guy at the top like Chapman, Betances, Robertson, etc but it’s still decent.

Loasiga/Holmes/Peralta/Trivino/Effross/Schmidt/German/Taillon is really solid. Sure there isn’t one shutdown guy in there but none are terrible.

JustinPBGmember
1 year ago
Reply to  steveo

Yeah, Holmes isn’t great lately but the rest of those guys are solid.

Pepper Martin
1 year ago
Reply to  steveo

Womp womp, Effross out with Tommy John.

keithk
1 year ago
Reply to  Pepper Martin

I remember much thinner bullpens. But they’re not happy memories. (And from a long time ago.)