AL Wild Card Series Preview: Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins
For the first time since the 2006 postseason, the Minnesota Twins will face a first-round opponent that isn’t the New York Yankees. Their previous four playoff appearances have resulted in futility in the Bronx, getting swept in three Division Series and one Wild Card game. It must be a relief to see another opponent across the diamond.
The Astros enter the 2020 postseason on their back foot. After dominating the American League West for the last three years, winning a World Series championship in 2017, and losing in the World Series last year, the Astros limped their way into the playoffs in this abbreviated season. Despite being the sixth seed, they had the worst regular season record among the AL playoff field:
| Category | Twins | Astros | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Batting (wRC+) | 101 (9th in AL) | 99 (10th in AL) | Twins |
| Fielding (DRS) | 21 (4th) | 13 (6th) | Twins |
| Starting Pitching (FIP-) | 84 (2nd) | 97 (4th) | Twins |
| Bullpen (FIP-) | 86 (4th) | 101 (10th) | Twins |
This three-game series is a matchup between two opponents with plenty to prove. Both teams’ offenses have taken a step back from what they accomplished last year. The Bomba Squad has seen its home run output drop a bit this season. After smashing the major league single-season home run record in 2019, the Twins launched the sixth most home runs in the majors in 2020. While the power was still mostly intact, their overall offensive production fell to just above league average. Diminished seasons from a few key players is the likely culprit. Miguel Sanó, Jorge Polanco, and Mitch Garver each saw their wRC+ drop by at least 38 points, with Garver’s dropping by an incredible 114 points.
Houston has had an even worse time replicating its success at the plate in 2020. The club led the majors with a 125 wRC+ last year; that mark dropped to a hair below league average this season. The Astros, too, have seen a number of their key offensive stars really struggle during this abbreviated season:
| Player | 2019 ISO | 2019 wRC+ | 2020 ISO | 2020 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve | .252 | 138 | .113 | 77 |
| Alex Bregman | .296 | 168 | .219 | 122 |
| Yuli Gurriel | .243 | 132 | .156 | 79 |
| Carlos Correa | .289 | 143 | .106 | 97 |
The four players listed above’s production has fallen precipitously. Both Altuve and Correa have swung the bat as if they were light-hitting middle infielders and Gurriel might finally be feeling the effects of age-related decline after a career-year in 2019. At least Bregman has been better than league average at the plate in 2020, though his wRC+ has fallen 46 points from the impressive 168 mark he posted a year ago.
As a team, the Astros really struggled to score runs as the season wore on. They scored just 3.8 runs per game in September and eked out 10-17 record during the final month of the season. They were much more productive earlier in the season, recording 5.3 runs per game in July and August. Despite the struggles of many of their superstars, though, they can still be dangerous.
Alongside their issues at the plate, the Astros have dealt with plenty of problems on the mound, too. Their pitching staff has been decimated by injuries. Justin Verlander was lost for the year after just a single start, and there’s reason to wonder if he’s pitched his last innings for Houston. Ten other pitchers joined Verlander on the Injured List at various points this season, with a cumulative 476 days lost to injury, by far the most days lost by any pitching staff in the majors.
They’ll turn to the venerable Zack Greinke to start the short series. His evolution this season has been fascinating to watch. He’s continued to tinker with his pitch arsenal and mix, presenting batters with a vast array of pitches at different speeds taking different shapes, keeping them off balance for the entire at-bat. The results have been good, mostly. He’s posting the fourth lowest FIP of his long career, driven by his lowest walk rate, but his ERA is more than a full run higher than his FIP.
The Twins will counter with Kenta Maeda in Game 1. With respect to Josh Donaldson, Maeda has been the most impactful offseason acquisition Minnesota made this year. Without having to worry about the various shenanigans the Dodgers pulled with his innings to suppress his contract incentives from kicking in, he has thrived in Minnesota after the team allowed him to just pitch. He didn’t allow more than three runs in any of his starts and he increased his strikeout rate by more than five points. If Shane Bieber hadn’t run away with the Cy Young award this year, Maeda would have a good case for winning it himself.
After Greinke and Maeda, the Astros’ starters are a little less clear than the Twins’. Minnesota has already announced that José Berríos will start Game 2, with Michael Pineda taking the ball for a hypothetical Game 3. Houston will likely counter with Framber Valdez in Game 2 — he last pitched on September 22. For Game 3, the likely candidate would be Lance McCullers Jr., who pitched on Saturday.
After all those injuries to their pitching staff, Valdez was thrust into a key role in the rotation. He responded by posting the best season of his career. A slight adjustment to his mechanics has given him more consistent release points, which have lead to vastly improved command. He’s cut his walk rate by more than half and both his ERA and FIP have dropped as a result. McCullers finally looked like himself during his last few starts of the year. Earlier in the season, it was clear he was still shaking off the cobwebs after his 2018 Tommy John surgery, but he allowed just four runs across his last three starts while striking out 24 in 17.2 innings.
As for the Twins’ starters, Berríos pitched through bouts of inconsistency this year on his way to posting a park- and league-adjusted FIP right in line with his career norms. His elevated walk rate was countered by a strikeout rate that crept back above 25%. Pineda lost most of this season after serving the remainder of a PED suspension for using a diuretic last year. He returned to action in September, making five successful starts for the Twins down the stretch.
On paper, the Twins hold every advantage in this series. They have a slight edge at the plate, play excellent defense, and have a much stronger pitching staff. But the Astros are still plenty talented, even if some of that talent hasn’t shown up as much this year. This series presents a chance for the Twins to cast their playoff troubles aside — maybe they’ll win their first playoff game since 2004. For the Astros, this series presents a clean slate to show the American League they’re still a team to be feared.
Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.
We would need our pitching back if we have any hopes to beat Minnesota. Biggest bet is if Springer can replicate his September for this series (And his postseason success in general) then there’s a shot.
As a lifelong Twins fan with scars from series past it frightens me to be seen as the favorite lol
As noted in the article, at least we’re not set up to pile up more consecutive playoff losses to the Yankees.
Yet.
😇
(This is a good year to end it, one way or another.)
On a side note, the Astros are the spiritual sequel to those Yankees teams as they are the current most hated team in baseball.
Astros don’t have enough pitching for a 5-game series, but the Astros have the 2nd and 3rd best qualified starters by FIP- in the AL, and have the lower weighted average FIP- among the likely starters listed in this article despite Pineda’s incredibly small FIP-. If FIP- is the stat to judge starting pitching in this series, Astros should be favored in that measure if they start Valdez over Urquidy.
Astros offense looks beat up at the moment (Gurriel-hand, Correa-back). While the stats show the Astros as only slightly worse than the Twins for the season, I’d guess the Twins offense is significantly better than the Astros offense at the moment.
“Without having to worry about the various shenanigans the Dodgers pulled with [Maeda’s] innings to suppress his contract incentives from kicking in, he has thrived in Minnesota after the team allowed him to just pitch.”
Do you have a source to support this claim, Jake? My understanding is that the Dodgers moved Maeda to the bullpen because he was a better reliever than he was a starter, and because that was a better fit for the Dodgers’ roster. Don’t get me wrong; like every MLB team, I’m sure dollar and cents played a part in the Dodgers’ thinking. But I doubt a team desperately trying to win a championship did something that would intentionally diminish their chances of winning just to save a couple million dollars. And, with all due respect, it seems unprofessional for you to chalk everything up to greed without proper sourcing, all the while ignoring the realities on the field.
Edit: Looking at the numbers, Maeda threw his fastball less than ever before (25.9%) and his slider more than ever before (39.9%). I don’t know if this was something he chose to do on his own, or if the Twins saw something and helped him to make some tweaks that lead to this level of success. But something is clearly different in his performance this year, so it’s unfair to say that he’s “just being allowed to pitch”.
I really don’t think the Dodgers we’re reducing the effectiveness of their pitching staff to save a fairly negligible amount of money. He really did seem to drop off near the end of every season, but was lights out in the bullpen.
Yeah, that is just unsubstantiated hearsay.
If you actually paid attention to the Dodgers, the claim that Dodgers nickeled-and-dimed Maeda doesn’t make sense. (One implicit proof is that he got 32-25-20-26 starts when the big incentives kick in at 20, 25, 30, 32 starts.)
Maeda hasn’t started a single postseason game for the Dodgers since 2016 and his first three starts averaged less than 4 innings with ERA of 6.75 and allowed OPS .896.
Compare that to his reliever starts in the postseason where he recorded ERA 1.64 and allowed OPS .504 in 21 games.
Given the options Dodgers had at their disposal, (Kershaw, Darvish, Hill, Wood, Buehler, Ryu) it is clear which version of Maeda was more valuable.
It just makes baseball sense to give the pitcher more practice coming out of the bullpen if you are going to use him as a bullpen in the most important stages.
While it was never stated outright, it was implied by both Maeda and his agent. This article by Andy McCullough from The Athletic has a few quotes from both parties: https://theathletic.com/1379224/2019/11/15/kenta-maeda-wants-to-start-so-the-dodgers-have-a-suggestion-pitch-better/
Per Maeda’s agent: “He cares more about the role than the contract. But the contract acts somewhat as a limitation because there’s a lot of upside for the Dodgers in limiting his starts.”
The fact that Maeda voiced his concerns and ultimately requested a trade tells me he wasn’t happy in LA, in particular, because they continued to move him from the rotation to the bullpen. There are plenty of other considerations that could be taken into account, but yes, I believe his contract was one of the factors that led the Dodgers to move him to the bullpen in September two seasons in a row.
That’s a fair point, Jake. I hadn’t seen that article or quote before, so thank you for providing them. While I still think Maeda’s performance justified the Dodgers moving him to the bullpen, I agree money is always a factor. And Maeda’s side did at least raise the concern. So thank you again for the source. I hope this didn’t come across as too mich of a nitpick on a well written article.
Also of relevance though: the Twins didn’t have to see him fade in month 5 of the season, with plenty of starting pitching in the organization, and have to make a decision on his role. He’s just hitting his plateau in this shortened season.
Eh “clean slate” never until they get rid of every key member of the 2017 Astros imo
There is no question that the games will be interesting but I simply wish that this, and all series were at least a semi-representative best of 5 rather than just a 3 game crap shoot
Houston has had an even worse time replicating its success at the plate in 2020. The club led the majors with a 125 wRC+ last year; that mark dropped to a hair below league average this season. The Astros, too, have seen a number of their key offensive stars really struggle during this abbreviated season.” It’s almost as if the Astros had some sort of unknown advantage last year that suddenly evaporated in 2020.