An Unlikely Group of MLB Feeder Colleges

Every June, about 1500 players from the United States, Canada, and Puerto Rico are selected in the amateur draft in June. Some of these amateur players are drafted out of high school, while others are drafted from two-year and four-year colleges. The majority of these players will elect to sign a professional contract, thus ending their amateur careers, and beginning their professional careers in minor league ball, with hopes and dreams of making it to the majors. Only a fraction of these players will eventually make it to the highest level of professional baseball.

This article will look at an unlikely group of MLB feeder colleges: US News and World Report’s top-25 national universities.

While it certainly has its faults, the US News and World Report Best Colleges rankings are the most well-known rankings of US colleges, and serve as the de facto standard. The most widely cited of these rankings is the National Universities ranking, which is a ranking of schools which “offer a full range of undergraduate majors, plus master’s and Ph.D. programs.” The list of of 2015’s top 25 schools is composed mostly of private schools (including all eight Ivy League schools), but also contains a couple public schools (such as UCLA). It contains some schools with top NCAA Division I baseball programs (such as Stanford and Vanderbilt), and some schools that compete at the NCAA Division III level (such as MIT).

What is interesting and perhaps somewhat surprising is that the players drafted from these schools make the majors leagues at a higher rate, collectively, than the pool of all drafted players. Matt Eddy of Baseball America found in 2013 that, between 1987 to 2008, 17.2% of players who were drafted and signed eventually made the majors (a sample that includes high school, two-year college, and four-year college players). It appears that, of players drafted and signed from four-year colleges between 1990 and 2010, about 15% reached the majors. And one finds, of players drafted and signed from US News’s top 25 universities between 1990 and 2010, 22.5% of them made the majors — a figure which is somewhat higher than those produced by the other two pools.

Perhaps not surprisingly, the top feeders among these schools by percentage are Stanford (32.8%, 40 of 122) and USC (32.1%, 34 of 106), both schools with established and successful baseball programs. But less high-profile programs such as Princeton (18.2%, 4 of 22) and Penn (22.2%, 2 of 9) also did well, breaking the average across all schools. MIT has the distinction of a perfect record, as it sent its lone drafted player (Jason Szuminski) to the majors.

Here is a breakdown of the results grouped by rounds:

It’s interesting to note that, for the first 10 rounds, the top-25 colleges have produced higher mark than average; from rounds 11 through 20, a roughly equivalent one; and for rounds 21 and higher, a lower one.

Curious about what might explain the relative success experienced by players from America’s top academic schools, I reached out to Colorado right-hander David Hale, not only a major leaguer himself but also a product of Princeton University. Here are some possible theories at which we arrived as a product of our dialogue:

• Discipline: Playing varsity baseball is a large time commitment at any college, and when that commitment is coupled with a robust academic obligation, each task becomes that much more difficult. These players have managed their time extremely well, starting from early-morning conditioning sessions to closing their books late at night. Occasionally, they will have a bad workout session or a bad grade on an exam, and they will learn quickly what went wrong and correct it, so that it doesn’t happen again and spiral out of control. Only disciplined student-athletes can tackle this kind of load.

It also takes discipline to make it to the majors. Players will spend several years, on average, in the minor leagues developing their skills before they are ready for the majors. Life in the minors is far from glamorous, and for these several years, they will be paid little for their services and endure long bus rides between games. They will also endure cold streaks along the way, and instead of getting frustrated, they will find out why they are playing poorly so that they can correct it. A disciplined player will have the proper mindset to see himself through this whole process.

Disciplined players also keep themselves out of trouble. While this is perhaps more frequently observed in the NFL and NBA, there are countless stories of top minor league players who never made it to the majors because of legal problems. (Matt Bush and Brien Taylor come to mind.)

• Playing without pressure: Players without a good educational background may see baseball as their only career option.  If they fail to make the majors, they may feel that they failed in life.  Perhaps this becomes a psychological block that undermines their potential for success.

Players who have a good educational background know that if professional baseball doesn’t work out for them, they will find success in another path in life. They are better risk-takers, and are in a better position to assess themselves and their chances of making the majors. A high-school draftee may be choosing between playing minor league ball or working a manual labor job.  A top college draftee may be choosing between playing minor league ball or taking a white-collar corporate job that pays upwards of $100,000 a year. The opportunity cost of playing minor league ball is higher for the top college draftee, which will give him more motivation to work harder and succeed in making the majors. Perhaps that also partially explains why late-round draftees from top colleges make the majors at a lower rate, because they have better alternative options.

• Studying the game: Baseball is very much a thinking man’s game. A player with a strong academic education can apply an analytic mindset towards evaluating the game.  Players who are willing to put in extra time studying the game may very well be more successful (this certainly can’t hurt). For example, before each of his starts, Chris Young of the Royals conducts his own scouting and research of the opposing team, types up a report, and discusses the report with his catcher.

Anecdotally, players from top academic colleges seem to be more inclined to finish their college degrees. For example, Marcus Stroman of the Blue Jays returned to Duke in spring of 2015 while rehabbing his ACL injury.

It is interesting to consider how this phenomenon can impact draft strategy.  There are many players whom each team considers drafting each year, and after the initial few rounds, there may not be a whole lot separating the players in terms of physical talent. In such cases, perhaps it makes sense to take the players’ academic record into account as an additional evaluation factor. This would go beyond the school that the player attended, but also include what his GPA is and if he is on track to graduate on time (or in some exceptional cases, if he is on track to graduate early).