Analyzing the Umpires: NLDS Edition
It is time to look at the third team on the field for the National League division round, the umpires. Each umpire is given a quick look to see if they have any unique strike calling patterns. Also, I posted their 2013 K/9 and BB/9 rates which I scaled them to the league average strikeout and walk rates. A 100 value is league average and a 110 value would be a value 10% higher than the average. Additionally, I added images of their called strike zones verses right and left handed hitters (from catchers perspective) compared to the league average. The scale is the percentage difference where -0.1 means 10% points less than the league average
Cardinals vs. Pirates
Overall, not a bad umpire crew. The only one with a distinct bias will be Paul Nauert and he will be favoring pitchers.
Jerry Layne – He doesn’t like to call the inside strike, but does like to call low strikes.
K/9: 7.5 (99)
BB/9: 3.1 (103)
vs LHH
vs RHH
Wally Bell – With both handed batters, he will more likely call low pitches and those to the third base side strikes.
K/9: 7.6 (100)
BB/9: 2.8 (93)
vs LHH
vs RHH
Sam Holbrook – He squeezes the zone, especially for left-handed hitters (LHH). He compensates by calling lower strikes.
K/9: 7.4 (98)
BB/9: 2.9 (96)
vs LHH
vs RHH
Jim Joyce – Calls the low strike for both handed hitters. For right-handed hitters (RHH), he doesn’t call the high strike. For LHH, he doesn’t call as many strikes on the edge.
K/9: 7.3 (96)
BB/9: 2.9 (96)
vs LHH
vs RHH
Paul Nauert – Loves to call the low strike which leads to his high strikeout and low walk rates.
K/9: 7.8 (103)
BB/9: 2.5 (83)
vs LHH
vs RHH
Tony Randazzo – Another ump who like to call the low strike, but calls less strikes on the edges.
K/9: 7.6 (100)
BB/9: 3.2 (106)
vs LHH
vs RHH
Dodgers-Braves
Overview – Again, not a bad group which likes to call the low strike.
John Hirschbeck – His zone is fairly average.
K/9: 8.0 (106)
BB/9: 3.1 (103)
vs LHH
vs RHH
Laz Diaz – His only difference is he calls more outside low pitches strikes for RHH.
K/9: 7.5 (99)
BB/9: 3.0 (99)
vs LHH
vs RHH
Marvin Hudson – He likes to call low strike to both RH and LH hitters.
K/9: 7.3 (96)
BB/9: 3.3 (109)
vs LHH
vs RHH
Bill Miller – He calls an overall larger strike zone than the rest of the league.
K/9: 7.5 (99)
BB/9: 2.7 (89)
vs LHH
vs RHH
Tim Welke – He shifts his LHH strike zone out to the third base side. His RHH zone expands a bit.
K/9: 7.0 (92)
BB/9: 3.0 (99)
vs LHH
vs RHH
Hunter Wendelstedt – He is pretty normal, except he pushed the LHH zone outside. Also, he extends the RHH zone up and down.
K/9: 8.1 (107)
BB/9: 2.8 (93)
vs LHH
vs RHH
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
These are from the catcher’s (and umpire’s) perspective, correct? It looks like either Jerry Lane does not like to call inside strikes, or the LHH and RHH heat maps were switched.
That aside, this is a really cool piece. I hope you publish these for the rest of the playoff crews.
The images are correct, it should read inside.
I will continue for the rest of the playoffs.
Great post! Any way to add in which games each ump is calling?