Analyzing the Umpires: NLDS Edition
It is time to look at the third team on the field for the National League division round, the umpires. Each umpire is given a quick look to see if they have any unique strike calling patterns. Also, I posted their 2013 K/9 and BB/9 rates which I scaled them to the league average strikeout and walk rates. A 100 value is league average and a 110 value would be a value 10% higher than the average. Additionally, I added images of their called strike zones verses right and left handed hitters (from catchers perspective) compared to the league average. The scale is the percentage difference where -0.1 means 10% points less than the league average
Cardinals vs. Pirates
Overall, not a bad umpire crew. The only one with a distinct bias will be Paul Nauert and he will be favoring pitchers.
Jerry Layne – He doesn’t like to call the inside strike, but does like to call low strikes.
K/9: 7.5 (99)
BB/9: 3.1 (103)
vs LHH

vs RHH

Wally Bell – With both handed batters, he will more likely call low pitches and those to the third base side strikes.
K/9: 7.6 (100)
BB/9: 2.8 (93)
vs LHH

vs RHH

Sam Holbrook – He squeezes the zone, especially for left-handed hitters (LHH). He compensates by calling lower strikes.
K/9: 7.4 (98)
BB/9: 2.9 (96)
vs LHH

vs RHH

Jim Joyce – Calls the low strike for both handed hitters. For right-handed hitters (RHH), he doesn’t call the high strike. For LHH, he doesn’t call as many strikes on the edge.
K/9: 7.3 (96)
BB/9: 2.9 (96)
vs LHH

vs RHH

Paul Nauert – Loves to call the low strike which leads to his high strikeout and low walk rates.
K/9: 7.8 (103)
BB/9: 2.5 (83)
vs LHH

vs RHH

Tony Randazzo – Another ump who like to call the low strike, but calls less strikes on the edges.
K/9: 7.6 (100)
BB/9: 3.2 (106)
vs LHH

vs RHH

Dodgers-Braves
Overview – Again, not a bad group which likes to call the low strike.
John Hirschbeck – His zone is fairly average.
K/9: 8.0 (106)
BB/9: 3.1 (103)
vs LHH

vs RHH

Laz Diaz – His only difference is he calls more outside low pitches strikes for RHH.
K/9: 7.5 (99)
BB/9: 3.0 (99)
vs LHH

vs RHH

Marvin Hudson – He likes to call low strike to both RH and LH hitters.
K/9: 7.3 (96)
BB/9: 3.3 (109)
vs LHH

vs RHH

Bill Miller – He calls an overall larger strike zone than the rest of the league.
K/9: 7.5 (99)
BB/9: 2.7 (89)
vs LHH

vs RHH

Tim Welke – He shifts his LHH strike zone out to the third base side. His RHH zone expands a bit.
K/9: 7.0 (92)
BB/9: 3.0 (99)
vs LHH

vs RHH

Hunter Wendelstedt – He is pretty normal, except he pushed the LHH zone outside. Also, he extends the RHH zone up and down.
K/9: 8.1 (107)
BB/9: 2.8 (93)
vs LHH

vs RHH

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
These are from the catcher’s (and umpire’s) perspective, correct? It looks like either Jerry Lane does not like to call inside strikes, or the LHH and RHH heat maps were switched.
That aside, this is a really cool piece. I hope you publish these for the rest of the playoff crews.
The images are correct, it should read inside.
I will continue for the rest of the playoffs.
Great post! Any way to add in which games each ump is calling?
Sam Holbrook is also a little more liberal with the infield fly rule…
yeah jeff, when are you going to analyze how much these umpires conspire to keep the braves from winning???
I think the Braves are doing a good enough job trying to lose by starting Elliot Johnson at 2B (As Johnson goes on and hits over .500 for the series with 2 home runs).
It’s hotly debated amongst Braves fans. Uggla has just been so bad the last two months, like batting under .100 kind of bad.
But I keep coming back, can Johnson really do anything to make a difference?
Sorry if I’m late to the party on this, but can you explain the best way to read the images? Thanks.
By gently brushing your fingers across the screen.
experience watching the weather channel must be a plus…
charts are interesting but seem to be missing the legend.
Jeff,
Do a demo chart for those of us that can not be bothered reading instructions.
Great article
Good stuff.
One question, is it possible to have the same scale for all graphs in future articles?
The scale is a mess to say the least. I have it coded to use the same interface for all the heatmaps. If it doesn’t adjust, when it goes from 0 to 100 for other images, it looks like total $hit.
I would rather look to add other features, then play trying to make this one better.
Jeff, interesting piece. Can you clarify what you mean by percentage difference from league average on strikes called by umpires? I’m assuming that all the greens on balls cutting through the perfect middle of the strike zone indicates that these are called strikes 99.99% of the time, and all umpires always call those strikes.
Let’s look at, say, Laz Diaz’s lower outside corner v RHH, where we see some yellows inside the strike zone. Can you give us some idea of what it means to be ~15% above average? It seems you’re saying that he’s more likely to call a strike a strike with that graphic. So are we saying that the major league average calls it a ball 10% of the time, while Diaz calls that pitch a ball 15% less often, or 8.5%? This metric makes much more intuitive sense to me outside the strike zone, but I’m probably just being dense and missing something.
When I originally created the zones at:
http://www.baseballheatmaps.com/graph/umpire.php
they looked like this (Diaz’s called strike zone):
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Diaz.gif
It was cool at the time, but not too informative. Then I got the bright idea of comparing zones with a .gif.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/combo.gif
After causing way to many seizures, I went with the comparison method. I could add a ton of images looking at each count, but I just want to give a quick bit of background.
Thanks Jeff, that helped. I guess the thing I was missing was that I had no idea that there were locations *inside* the edges of the rule book strike zone where the major league *average* umpire calls it a strike less than 20% of the time!
Jesus Christ. You are such a bad writer that you should not be allowed to bear the name “Jeff.”
Thanks.