Andrew Miller, Wade Davis and the Battle of the Bullpen Aces

If you were to ask yourself, “Who are the two most dominant bullpen weapons – that aren’t closers – in the MLB?” the next logical step would be to ask yourself, “Well, how could I find out?”

One way you could find out is to head over to the FanGraphs leaderboards and export a custom leaderboard to Excel with the saves, FIP-WAR and RA9-WAR totals of all the qualified relievers in baseball this season. Then, you could remove all the players with more than 10 saves and sort the ones that are left by a 50/50 split of the two WAR totals.

Guess what? You don’t have to think or do any of that because that’s exactly what I already did. Here’s the top 10:

• Dellin Betances, Yankees, 3.5
• Wade Davis, Royals, 3.4
• Andrew Miller, Orioles 2.2
• Kelvin Herrera, Royals, 2.1
• Pat Neshek, Cardinals, 2.1
• Tony Watson, Pirates, 2.1
• Darren O’Day, Orioles, 1.8
• Adam Warren, Yankees, 1.5
• Luke Gregerson, Athletics, 1.5
• Tyler Clippard, Nationals, 1.5

A lot of these names sound familiar because almost all of these guys have pitched in this year’s postseason. And look at that! Three of the top four and also number seven are currently playing in the same series. Lucky us!

Dave Cameron wrote about the value of a postseason relief ace back in July when the Tigers acquired Joakim Soria. I want to talk about that a little more, but the Tigers are no longer in the playoffs, so let’s turn our attention to the top two guys left on that list above who faced off against each other in game one: Wade Davis and Andrew Miller.

OK, they didn’t really “face off,” per se, because relievers don’t pitch against each other, they pitch against the other team’s lineup. But their usage overlapped and it happened while the game was tied, so it sort of seemed like they were facing each other. It was a particularly exciting part of the game, to me. This is the part where we go over it.

Andrew Miller

Miller entered the game first, so let’s begin with him.

First, a little backstory, just in case. Andrew Miller was once a top prospect as a starter, drafted by the Tigers one spot ahead of Clayton Kershaw, four spots ahead of Tim Lincecum and five spots ahead of Max Scherzer in the 2006 draft. Presumably, the promise of a 6-foot-7 lefty who could throw 100mph was appealing to those in charge of putting together baseball teams.

Miller walked a ton of guys and as a result was generally terrible for two seasons in Detroit, who shipped him off to the Marlins as the centerpiece – alongside Cameron Maybin – of the crazy Miguel Cabrera / Dontrelle Willis trade that also apparently involved Burke Badenhop.

In Miami, he walked a ton of guys and was generally terrible for three seasons before being shipped off to Boston for a guy called Dustin Richardson.

In Boston, he walked a ton of guys and was generally terrible until (!) they made him a reliever. It was then once he became a reliever that he continued to walk a ton of guys, but be decent at least. And then this year was the year he cut his walks nearly in half and struck out batters at a better rate than any pitcher not named Aroldis Chapman. This year was also the year when he was traded to Baltimore for Eduardo Rodriguez in what may turn out to be the most pivotal deadline move by a contender in a year that saw David Price, Jon Lester, Jeff Samardzjia and Austin Jackson be dealt to contending clubs.

In Friday night’s game one, Miller faced six batters and got four outs. Three of those outs were strikeouts. He also got a popup, hit a batter and allowed a single. Miller pitched all of the batters pretty much the same, because Miller is one of those guys where the batters knows what’s coming and there’s just nothing they can do about it.

Here’s how Miller got to two strikes on Billy Butler. First, we have a slider, low and nearly in the right-handed batters box:

Then, we have a slider, low and nearly in the right-handed batters box:

Two pitches later, he struck him out looking on a slider, inside.

Here’s how he got ahead 0-2 on Omar Infante. First, we have a slider, low and well into the right-handed batters box:

Next up we have a slider, low and nearly in the right-handed batters box:

Two pitches later, Infante popped up on a slider, low and inside.

Finally, here’s Miller ending his night by getting Mike Moustakas, swinging, on a slider, low and nearly in the right-handed batters box:

That’s all you need to know about Andrew Miller because that’s what Andrew Miller does. I didn’t even show one of his 96mph fastballs because, other than throw gas, this is all he does. No, really. Here are his swinging strikes on the slider this year:

And this is basically the change in the new Andrew Miller. The old Miller’s slider repeatedly caught too much of the plate and got hit. Without his slider, all he has is a hard fastball that he doesn’t throw for a strike. The new Miller, for the first time in his career, has started consistently burying his slider, and hitters can’t lay off of it:

Wade Davis

Davis, like Miller, is a former starting pitching prospect who was generally terrible for several years before becoming the dominant reliever he is today. Unlike Miller, Davis’ problem when he was a starter wasn’t so much throwing strikes as it was giving up dingers. The old used to give up a lot of them. The new Davis hasn’t allowed a home run all year. (Also, I’m just learning Kelvin Herrera hasn’t either. Jesus, Royals).

With Davis, it wasn’t as much a change in philosophy as it was starting to throw the ball harder than hell:

When starting pitchers move to the bullpen, they typically see an increase in their velocity by a tick or two. That’s normal. What Wade Davis is doing isn’t normal. Davis, the starter, had a fastball that typically sat between 92 and 93. Davis, the reliever, has a fastball that’s been sitting 97 since May, and now it’s better. The cutter used to sit about 87. Now it sits 93 and is better. The curveball used to sit about 80, now it sits 85 and is better. Davis still has something of a starter’s repertoire, but throws his pitches like a reliever.

He struck out four batters in two particularly filthy innings on Friday night. Here’s him getting Jonathan Schoop on a 94mph pitch unlike any I’ve ever seen, which we’ve apparently agreed to call a cutter:

Here’s the curve, to Alejanda De Aza:

And flames, to Adam Jones:

As soon as Davis left the game, Greg Holland came in and gave up two singles, a walk and a run.

As soon as Miller left the game, Zach Britton threw 12 balls in 14 pitches, Darren O’Day gave up the go-ahead homer and Brian Matusz gave up another dinger for good measure.

This isn’t totally fair, because Holland and O’Day are both amazing in their own right, so it’s hard to fault either one too much when they commit rare mistakes, but when Wade Davis and Andrew Miller are pitching against each other in a tie ballgame, it’s not “Who will get to Davis or Miller first,” it’s “Who will get to the guy after Davis or Miller first.” In this case, that team was the Royals, and so Wade Davis wins this battle royale on a technicality, but there will be more of these.

The last interesting thing I’ll point out from this game is that both pitchers were used for more than one inning. Each are former starters, so this isn’t surprising, but consider that 77 relievers had more multi-inning appearances than Miller, who had 13, and that Davis had just four of them. Buck Showalter and Ned Yost seem more willing to ask more from their most powerful weapons, as they should be in the postseason. The dynamic between two of the game’s most elite relievers and how their managers choose to deploy them is sure to be one of the more exciting storylines of the ALCS. And, lucky us, we get to keep watching one of these guys through the end of the World Series.