Andy Green on Managing (Analytically) in San Diego

It’s easy to imagine Andy Green in a front office. The 39-year-old former infielder graduated Summa Cum Laude from the University of Kentucky with a degree in finance, and his verbiage is that of a GM. Often lauded for his communication skills, he’s as analytically savvy as any manager in the game.

His current job is a huge challenge. The Padres are coming off a 94-loss season in Green’s first year at the helm, and the immediate future isn’t much brighter. San Diego has a promising array of a prospects, but the big-league roster is a work-in-progress. He understands that growing pains remain.

Green’s own evolution has been impressive. His smattering of big-league playing time — 140 games over parts of four seasons — was followed by a 12-year stint in the Diamondbacks organization, where he received multiple minor-league manager-of-the-year honors, and was twice named Best Manager Prospect in the Southern League. In 2015, he served as Arizona’s third base coach.

Green shared his thoughts on an array of topics in an impromptu conversation at the Winter Meetings.

Green on data and match-ups: “There are always opportunities in a game to take advantage of something analytically. It could be a matchup component. You might look at the spin-rate aspect of a guy, or a quality-of-contact aspect of a guy, and figure out which matchup plays best for you. You go into a game having played things through your head — you know what you’re looking for — and if those opportunities arise, you’re ready to take advantage of them.

“Say you’ve got a left-handed guy with high spin in your bullpen. Even if it’s a lefty-righty matchup, there might be analytics telling you that this guy doesn’t handle high spin at 94-plus off a lefty, even though he normally hammers left-handed pitching. You’re aware of that matchup, and you’ll look to exploit it at some point in time.

“We continuously mine data to find what we can exploit on a series-by-series basis. There was a stretch last year where, if you were playing the Dodgers, if you had a lefty you had to pitch the lefty. That was regardless of if he was a premium lefty or not, because that’s what the Dodgers were struggling with at the time. You play those match-ups. As a manager, you’re very aware of that information and you utilize it to the best of your ability.”

On flexibility and communication: “There is wisdom in being able to change your course of action. Things won’t always play out the way you thought they should. If a matchup has favored you exponentially through time… maybe it has always played because of a certain pitcher’s slider, but he doesn’t have his slider that day. You need the foresight to avoid that matchup even though the numbers say it should work. What you observe is going to play into your decision.

“Things change all the time. That’s what management is — putting guys in positions to succeed, and always leaving open the option to make a course change when necessary. You have to be open minded.

“A good leader doesn’t get too far in front of his players to where they can’t follow. If you’re taking them down a divergent path, you take them down that path with logic and a good explanation as to why you’re going that way. That’s what communication is all about. If you have a deviation from the norm — what they’ve been accustomed to, especially with a veteran-laden roster — you have to sit down and explain. Maybe it’s why you’re shifting more now than you had before. You help them understand and grasp the data. If they get that information, most guys are usually good to go down any path you want.

“I have a roster now with no players over 30 years old. We have complete organizational buy-in for what we’re building. The need to explain is far less than it was going into last season.”

On defensive positioning and shifts: “Ballparks aren’t all the same. The outfield is absolutely huge in Colorado. The infield in Arizona plays very fast. These things matter. How you choose to position your outfielders, and what you’re trying to take away… we have data that gives us, relationally to the fence position and how well the ball carries, where the outfielders should be in certain ballparks.

“In full shifting, I think we were in the top five or six last year. In partial shifts, I think we were right at the bottom of league usage; that wasn’t something we used productively. We’re going back now and analyzing all of our defensive positioning, and trying to make a determination on if some sort of pattern developed that we can change to make us better going into next year.

“We’ll have the analytics guys weigh in, and we’ll talk about it as a coaching staff. We need to make sure we have full buy-in on what we’re doing. And it’s different based on personnel. If we end up with a rangy shortstop this next season — the need to shift is mitigated to a degree by the range of your players. You don’t want to put three rangy players on top of each other. But if you have less range, you want to maximize the people in the places where they’re most likely to hit the baseball. That does factor in. Anybody that doesn’t factor that into the equation is probably leaving a key component out.

“You don’t want redundancy in an area where somebody on your team is plenty capable of covering. When I was doing the infield positioning with the Diamondbacks, Nick Ahmed is a guy covered a lot of ground. Say you have Arenado. You don’t want to stick your shortstop behind Nolan Arenado in the six hole, because then you’re giving up plays you’d otherwise make. Those guys have premium range. It’s about understanding the positioning components of the players, including how good their range is.”

On lineup construction and swing types: “I think it’s a wonderful world when you can (create continuity in a lineup). It’s not always that in reality. You have to leave yourself open to multiple options. Some of the best managers have had the same lineups, and some of the best managers change them every day.

“I am not married to a particular lineup. But I do like seeing my best guys right at the top, in the one and two holes, getting on base consistently. Getting them more at bats is also a big component of that. And I like the idea of the aggression that comes out of the box — you’re coming at a team right away. There are tough hitters for them to deal with right out of the chute.

“As far as swings… my personal opinion is that it’s wise to assess a player’s capabilities. For certain guys, it’s wise to shorten up. With other guys, it’s wise to say, ‘Hey man, you’re going to take three of your best swings; you’re going to take your A-swing and you’re never going to change or deviate.’ I’m that camp where you don’t have a hard, fast, married-to philosophy. It’s on an individual basis.”

On increased velocity and strikeouts: “I don’t think it’s going to shift back. Guys are better trained from an earlier age, and they’re all throwing harder. There are so many guys who throw 95-plus now. Middle relievers — guys lineups used to exploit — are coming into the game and they’re throwing 96-97-98. That’s always been a strikeout pitch.

“There is a proliferation of upper-echelon arms that didn’t used to exist. There were always the stars — that hasn’t changed — but there are just more really-good-stuff guys in the game now.

“At the same time, there is so much more data to use to your advantage. That is the one part of the game plan you completely control — you decide which pitch you throw, and where you throw it. Back in the late 80s when Dave Duncan started figuring out how to attack hitters — that process has been built on more and more from a formalized scouting standpoint. There’s more data to help you exploit hitters, and that means strikeouts are going to be up.”

On respecting trends and retaining tenets: “You’re always open to new information, and that means your path changes from time to time. But you also hold true to some tenets that you’re not willing to compromise — there are things you know help you win baseball games. I think the prudent path is to always take in the new stuff, but not leave the old stuff completely behind. That’s how we’re building the organization. We’re very open, with a lot of communication and ideas thrown back and forth, but with some vigilance to core principles.”





David Laurila grew up in Michigan's Upper Peninsula and now writes about baseball from his home in Cambridge, Mass. He authored the Prospectus Q&A series at Baseball Prospectus from December 2006-May 2011 before being claimed off waivers by FanGraphs. He can be followed on Twitter @DavidLaurilaQA.

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William Wallacemember
7 years ago

Thanks for the article! I love reading this series, and Andy is a great choice of people to interview.