August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 12/1/15

august fagerstrom: hey guys. first time using this software, hoping it goes smoothly. start getting those questions in and i’ll be back around noonish to begin

august fagerstrom: not sure how embedding will work in here, but today’s chat soundtrack for me is Four Tet – Dialogue

august fagerstrom: <iframe width=”420″ height=”315″ src=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/jG-g46-U7PA” frameborder=”0″ allowfullscreen></iframe>

august fagerstrom: that didn’t work!

august fagerstrom: right on time!

august fagerstrom: i’m being told I can insert an embedded YouTube video using this here image button…

august fagerstrom:

august fagerstrom:

august fagerstrom: well would ya look at that. and then there was music!

The Dude: Re Hardball Times Annual; while your piece was great, do you think you could do something in the analysis section next year? Putting you in the Division review section is like casting Daniel Day-Lewis to play Robin in a Batman flick.

august fagerstrom: appreciate this! that’s definitely a possibility next year. when I was asked to contribute again this year I was still with MLB. I’d imagine next year I’ll have a larger role

august fagerstrom: and slow your roll on the DDL comp. that dude is the GOAT

Derek Carr: So, Trumbo’s on the block and the Rockies need a 1B. Is there something there? I’d love to see some 600-ft Trumbombs at Coors.

august fagerstrom: certainly seems so! doesn’t sound like he’ll be a Mariner, he won’t cost much to acquire, and good lord I think we all want to see him in Coors

august fagerstrom: I’m rooting for it, personally

Chris: What should Mets goal this offseason be? I think they’re underestimating the massive impact Cespedes had on their lineup and replacing his all-world second half is impossible.

august fagerstrom: in doing some research for an unrelated post, I was calculating the projected WAR of each team’s best two players

august fagerstrom: the worst 1-2 combo is the Padres, with Wil Myers (+2 WAR) and Derek Norris (+2)

august fagerstrom: second-worst are the Phillies, with Maikel Franco (+2.6) and Odubel Herrera (+1.5)

august fagerstrom: third-worst?

august fagerstrom: Mets!

august fagerstrom: David Wright (+2.7) and Wilmer Flores (+2.4)

august fagerstrom: might say more about what the projections think of Curtis Granderson and Travis d’Arnaud, but, boy. they could really use some star power in that lineup

Matt: Hey August, Will anyone meet the Braves’ high requests for Shelby Miller?

august fagerstrom: will anyone meet the Braves’ recently reported requests? no, I don’t think so. will anyone offer a good enough package that the Braves trade Shelby Miller this offseason? yeah, I think so

The Dude: How was your Thanksgiving?

august fagerstrom: it was splendid! thanks for asking. hoping everyone else spent quality time with their loved ones

The Dude: Are you a little disappointed about how reasonable a contract Zimmermann signed?

august fagerstrom: not at all! I quite enjoy seeing these kind of win-win deals where everything goes the way we think it should go

august fagerstrom: maybe it’s my hot take-averse nature

Kyle: What “rebuilding” team has had the strongest off season so far in your opinion?

august fagerstrom: little early to determine that, no?

august fagerstrom: let’s at least wait until after the Winter Meetings

DK: Joc sure fell off a cliff. Do you see him rebounding next season?

august fagerstrom: yeah, I mean, he’s 23 and he just posted +3 WAR and a 115 wRC+ in his rookie year

august fagerstrom: he was working through some things in the second half. clearly, the talent is there. he’s gonna be a good player

Ben Gilbert: Can you rank Matz, J. Ross and Nola for next year?

august fagerstrom: flip Nola and Ross

The Dude: What animal will finally break the species line in MLB?

august fagerstrom: octopus

Dakota McKee: Who’s going to give Johnny Cueto 7 yrs, 140+M? Are the Diamondbacks going to bid against themselves until they win (buyers remorse)?

august fagerstrom: I’d originally thought he’d wind up in Detroit, but now they have Jordan Zimmermann

august fagerstrom: Greinke to the Dodgers still makes a lot of sense, as does Price to Boston. let’s assume those happen. that leaves us with the Giants maybe in the market, the Cubs, perhaps the Astros? and the Dbacks

august fagerstrom: I think the Dbacks make a ton of sense, to be honest. I’ll actually be writing about that later

Aj: When the music stops and all the chairs are full , which free agent will be left without a team , this years James Shields ?

august fagerstrom: maybe for different reasons, but I sure don’t see teams lining up to sacrifice a draft pick for Ian Kennedy

Crazy Buck Martinez: Does Happ best Zimmermann in fWAR again next year?

august fagerstrom: no

L. Scott: Hey August! If the Mets don’t land Zobrist, would bringing back Daniel Murphy be a likely fallback option, or do they likely stick with Herrera/Flores?

august fagerstrom: don’t think Murphy is a big enough upgrade there to warrant whatever cost it would bring

Zonk: Just wanted to say I really enjoyed your article on the White Sox’s quandary. Because I love quandaries. Is the most likely outcome just patchwork leading to continued mediocrity?

august fagerstrom: probably

august fagerstrom: I really do think they should trade Quintana, but I wouldn’t bank on that happening

jen: If, before the season, each team could pick either DH or pitchers hit for their 81 home games, which would be picked more?

august fagerstrom: I’d guess DH by a landslide, though NL teams are at a disadvantage when playing AL teams because they don’t have to consider a 9th hitter when constructing their roster

Bork: ‘and then there was music!’ except for us office workers who’s employers have youtube blocked, jerk.

august fagerstrom: 🙁

august fagerstrom: listen to Four Tet when you get home

august fagerstrom: or Pandora! if that’s not blocked

The Dude: And on the first day of JotCast Chat, the Fagerstrom said, “Let there be music.”

Q-Ball: With the latest Front Office changes, it seems like everyone is embracing analytics. Looking back, what organizations do you think benefited the most from being early movers in this approach? A’s and Red Sox?

august fagerstrom: yeah, those mid-2000’s Red Sox teams probably benefited quite a bit

august fagerstrom: Indians were one of, if not the very first teams to have their own proprietary metrics and whatnot in the 90’s

august fagerstrom: that helped lead to those amazing mid-90’s teams, and has likely helped keep them decent most of the time since then, though they have nothing to show for it

august fagerstrom: kind of the same with the A’s

John: The Indians are reportedly shopping a SP for a OF. What about a Rusney, Henry Owens, Travis Shaw and 10 Million(to make Rusney contract less then Carrascos) for Carrasco? Do Indians immediately hang up, or is there grounds for a trade? It gives them a cheap and intriguing OF, and 1B option, while replacing Carrasco with a young arm.

august fagerstrom: yeah, Indians immediately hang up

august fagerstrom: they’d need far more in the way of immediate big league talent than Castillo. they’re trying to win this year

Mandy: The Padres #1 priority is a SS, but they are also looking to upgrade at 1B; Madison Bumgarner hit as many homers as Yonder Alonso in 2015. They might move Myers to 1B, which other 1B makes the most sense for the team?

august fagerstrom: trade for Bumgarner and play him at 1B, clearly

august fagerstrom: 1B 4/5 days, pitcher the other. genius!

Crazy Buck Martinez: Is Encarnacion for Matz an overpay for TOR? Love the pipedream of trading EE for a young starter and signing Chris Davis #dingerz

august fagerstrom: no, it’s a massive overpay by the Mets

august fagerstrom: EE is a bat-only 34-year-old who’s a free agent next year

you: If you were joe maddon, who would hit leadoff next season?

august fagerstrom: I don’t think next year’s leadoff hitter is currently on the roster

august fagerstrom: Rizzo/Bryant/Schwarber should be 2-4 in some order

august fagerstrom: Russell/Castro types OBPs arent high enough to lead off

august fagerstrom: probably whoever they acquire to play CF ends up leading off, given the right skill set

Joe: Is Austin Jackson a good target for a team like Orioles?

august fagerstrom: any outfielder is an upgrade over what they currently have in the corners, but I doubt he goes somewhere where he’s not playing CF

Derek: Do you think Odubel Herrera played over his head last year or is he a legit top of the order/solid outfielder?

august fagerstrom: he’s not a four-win player

august fagerstrom: he probably hit over his head a bit

august fagerstrom: the metrics all agreed he was a +5-10 run center fielder, though, and he’s got value on the bases

august fagerstrom: even if he’s a ~90 wRC+ bat, that’s still a decently valuable piece

Q-Ball: My kids recently made me go to the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame on our way from the East Coast. I was prepared to hate it, and really enjoyed it. Very classy and well done. Not a question, just a plug for Cleveland!

august fagerstrom: we’ve got some things!

Ant: What’s up with Archie Bradley? Wasn’t he a top prospect?

august fagerstrom: top 10 pick!

august fagerstrom: he worked through some shoulder issues and struggled this year

august fagerstrom: shoulder issues certainly are worrisome, and his stock is certainly down, but no reason to think he can’t rebound and still be a solid big leaguer as soon as next year

Mark: Thoughts on the better MI, Logan Forsythe or Euginio Suarez?

august fagerstrom: Logan Forsythe was awesome last year

august fagerstrom: before last season, I’d have probably called it a wash and maybe given the slight edge to Suarez

august fagerstrom: pretty clearly looks like Forsythe now

you: If the cubs sign a shark/leake level pitcher and span, without any major trades, will the fans pull out their pitchforks?

august fagerstrom: I don’t see why they would

august fagerstrom: they arguably already have the best roster in baseball, and those moves would fill their only real holes. they’d probably be the World Series favorites

Bork: With the Jays rotation pretty much having a set 5 already, what do you think will happen with Hutchison? He can’t be worth that much right now to trade, but last season was an outlier and he has a high chance to return to norm this year. Is he just AAA depth to start the season?

august fagerstrom: that or Chavez is the long man

august fagerstrom: I’m a fan of having a 6th starter that could be most teams 4th or 5th starters

Dave: Thanks to advanced metrics and statistical analysis, we have a better understanding today what makes a good (or great) baseball player. Are there any players you can think of from decades past that were considered “meh” by traditional standards in their era, which today’s metrics would show to have actually been very good (or even elite)?

august fagerstrom: sure there are plenty better examples but first one that comes to mind is Bobby Grich

august fagerstrom: never hit for much average or power but had awesome OBPs and played good defense up the middle for his entire career

august fagerstrom: should probably be a Hall of Famer

august fagerstrom: should say he hit for good average and power, just neither was elite

Bruce: How many different mustards claim to be the original Clevand pallpark mustard?

august fagerstrom: mustard is gross so I have no idea

Zonk: If Mike Trout continues his current production and hits free agency at the age of 29, what kind of contract could you see him commanding? Does your head explode thinking about it?

august fagerstrom: over $500 million easily

Dan M: Where do you see Starlin Castro playing next season?

august fagerstrom: San Diego comes to mind

Dan: What else do the Tigers need to compete again? Is bullpen help or LF more pressing need?

august fagerstrom: read Dave Cameron’s piece that just went up!

Gary: Feedback for devs: would be great if the chat window were bigger (wider). It takes up a pretty narrow space on my screen.

august fagerstrom: noted!

I am the Walrus: Would Cubs be better of spending their money on a big name – Price or Heyward or spreading it around for 2 second tear starters (Shark and Chen) and a rp like O’Day?

august fagerstrom: kinda think the latter, actually

Ben: Question: of the following prospects, who is most likely to have a huge impact in 2016: Giolito, Urias, Glasnow, [pause for effect], Alex Reyes and Robert Stephenson?

august fagerstrom: kinda like your order

august fagerstrom: it really hinges on when Urias comes up though. if he gets a decent chunk of playing time, he’s probably the clear favorite. he could also be held back until September and then he’s comfortably behind Glasnow/the other guys

rob: does reshuffling projected WAR from the rotation to the lineup make a difference? all the talk of trading Carrasco or Salazar for an OF seems like robbing Peter to pay Paul.

august fagerstrom: I think the reasoning here is that there’s more assumed depth in the rotation and that if the Indians were to trade a Carrasco/Salazar for a major league outfielder, they’d also be getting something in the way of some prospects in return as well

I am the Walrus: Do you think Cubs corner OF Soler and Schwarber can be improve defensively next year to be average or slightly above for Soler and below avg but not brutal for Schwarber?

august fagerstrom: they both seem to be pretty brutal in the outfield

Ben: Is Jon Singleton’s career over? Has AJ Reed simply overtaken him within the organization?

august fagerstrom: no; yes

The Dude: When a team signs Chris Davis, can they forgo the introductory press conference, and just put on a fireworks display and/or blow something up with C4 while screaming “POWER” into a megaphone?

august fagerstrom: every introductory press conference should be done away with in exchange for fireworks

mtsw: Orioles are rumored for Denard Span. If they sign him, does it make sense to play him at CF and move Jones to a corner?

august fagerstrom: probably yes, though I doubt that happens

august fagerstrom: kind of like McCutchen and Marte in Pittsburgh. they should absolutely swap positions, but it’s Andrew McCutchen, so that’s not happening

Cy Iwakuma: If I don’t end up back in Seattle, where I go? I can’t imagine teams are eager to give me multi-years and surrender a draft pick… SF, maybe?

august fagerstrom: the Giants were the first team that came to mind, yes

august fagerstrom: Dbacks could make some sense too, assuming they don’t wind up with Cueto

august fagerstrom: think he stays in Seattle, though

Marc: Please tell me Morton AND Locke wont both be in the Pirates roationn next year. I can live with one but not both anymore

august fagerstrom: not sure about Opening Day, but Jeff Locke and Charlie Morton will both make starts for the Pirates next year

mtsw: With all the money coming off the books soon, should Philly think about going after some free agents this offseason? Or should they just punt 2016?

august fagerstrom: punt

august fagerstrom: FO has already essentially said they’re going to, as well

The Dude: When you refer to wOBA in spoken language, do you sound out each letter (W. O. B. A) or say “Woba” similar sounding to “Soda”?

august fagerstrom: Woba Soda

I am the Walrus: Would you rather have an corner OF prospect in low A who grades out..45 power/60 hit or 60 power/45 hit?

august fagerstrom: 60 hit 45 power

august fagerstrom: more willing to bank on the power developing with age/strength

Zonk: The Brewers appear to be shifting to full rebuild mode. Who is a good match for Lucroy? How would you peg his trade value right now?

august fagerstrom: think the FO has came out and said they’re not trading Lucroy

august fagerstrom: they don’t want to do a total teardown. want to keep some of the faces of the franchise around, have guys like Lucroy to mentor the kids, etc

Julio Pepper: Do you hate typing out “wRC+”?

august fagerstrom: kind of but I really like the way it looks visually so I don’t mind the outcome

I am the Walrus: Do you see Henry Owens as a #4 starter or higher?

august fagerstrom: not higher

august fagerstrom: I’m not very high on Owens, tbh

august fagerstrom: no velo, and he’s so big and lanky that the command issues seem very problematic

august fagerstrom: not a mechanics guru by any means so I could be wrong but you’d at least like a guy as wild as him to have better stuff

The Dude: Does Puig’s off field indiscretions actually effect his trade value?

august fagerstrom: marginally

Zonk: Cubs still need a CF….if they choose to spend more on pitching, who do you think is a good mid-tier target?

august fagerstrom: Span makes a lot of sense

august fagerstrom: trade might make more sense

Ben: If none of my questions get posted, do they make a sound?

august fagerstrom: sorry! I don’t look at the names when I post them

august fagerstrom: if you’ve asked me about fantasy baseball / hypothetical “Who says no” trade proposals / the NFL, there’s a reason they didn’t get posted

august fagerstrom: promise it’s nothing personal though!

Tom: Chances the Cardinals sign both Heyward and Price?

august fagerstrom: 0

Ben: Is Mark Canha’s production real? I spent all year grappling with the credibility of his and Travis Shaw’s output

august fagerstrom: I really like Mark Canha!

august fagerstrom: y’know how Cistulli has “his guys” upon which he develops fixations? Mark Canha is one of those guys for me

Prich: A talking head in my town said he’d only trade for HanRam if Betts came with him to make-up for the bad contract. Got me thinking… Which is greater; HanRam’s negative value, or Mookie’s positive value?

august fagerstrom: Mookie’s positive value

Pete: If Matt Kemp were a free agent right now, what would his deal look like (range) in terms of dollars and years? Thanks!

august fagerstrom: like 4/50something?

august fagerstrom: that might be high but it feels like there would be a team who would look past the massive defensive issues and see the dingers and past Kemp years and overpay

Gas: I’m hearing rumblings about the Astros’ interest in Chris Davis. Can’t AJ Reed be the man at 1b for them going forward?

august fagerstrom: yeah AJ Reed has also played ~50 games above single-A and the Astros want to win a World Series in 2016

Tough: Who has more trade value, Syndergaard or J.Fernandez?

august fagerstrom: syndergaard

Ben S: I love Michael A Taylor for his tools. Is he a viable full-time OF in Washington going forward? What about Aaron Hicks in New York?

august fagerstrom: depends what ‘viable’ means to you

august fagerstrom: both those guys have the tools to play every day and not murder a team

august fagerstrom: both are more suited as 4th outfielders for contending teams, though

Meh: Are Braves shooting themselves in the foot by not going full rebuild? It seems they’re trying to do some sort of half rebuild to try to compete in 2017.

august fagerstrom: they’ve dumped Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Andrelton Simmons, Craig Kimbrel, Evan Gattis, Alex Wood, BJ Upton, Cameron Maybin and others in the last year. seems pretty full rebuildy to me

august fagerstrom: and Shelby Miller seems to be the next to go

august fagerstrom: don’t have much else they could get rid of

Q-Ball: Cubs bullpen is pretty set at the top (Rondon, Strop, Grimm), but lacking depth. Theo and Co. seem to be going for cheap volume, with pickups like Patton, Brothers, which is what they did during the season last year (Rodney,Cahill, Richard,Soriano). Historically, Theo’s Red Sox handed out hardly any multi-year FA contracts to relievers. Do you agree with this kind of “bargain bin” approach?

august fagerstrom: yep. I think more and more you’re going to see teams do this

august fagerstrom: it’s nice to have a “proven” guy or two at the top but it seems like it makes plenty more sense to try failed starters in the bullpen before guaranteeing money to relievers

august fagerstrom: loved what the Cubs did last year with Wood/Cahill/Richard

august fagerstrom: and with how well it worked for them, specifically, don’t see any real incentive to change

Q-Ball: If you had a dollar for every crazy trade proposal, would you be conducting this chat from the deck of your yacht?

august fagerstrom: it wouldn’t be a big yacht

The Dude: Isn’t all the talk about the Cubs having a pitching problem kind of weird? In 2015, their pitching staff had the best FIP, third best ERA, and set an MLB record for most Ks in a season.

august fagerstrom: I’m not sure the talk is that they have a problem. I think the talk is that they just want David Price, too.

Bill: If the WS should say fuck it and trade Quintana, why not Sale and Abreu while you’re at it? They could completely restock the farm and probably get good young MLB players.

august fagerstrom: wouldn’t be the worst idea in a vacuum. there is value in not alienating a fanbase, though

Norrin Radd: Chances Barry Bonds becomes the Marlins’ hitting coach?

august fagerstrom: 100% in my dreams

august fagerstrom: seriously though, it does sound likely

august fagerstrom: I can’t imagine how that could work because I’ve always had this idea that when you’re THAT good at something it would become impossible to teach someone else because it just comes so naturally to you. but, god I hope it happens.

Jack Glasscock’s Cup: Would it make sense to transition Kipnis to RF and hope Jose Ramirez’s second half was real?

august fagerstrom: not now

august fagerstrom: Kipnis is fine at 2B and Chisenhall was awesome in RF

august fagerstrom: as the roster stands right now Ramirez is most likely to split time with Urshela at 3B

august fagerstrom: and then rove around when Urshela starters

august fagerstrom: starts*

Jack Glasscock’s Cup: How far away from the majors are the Indians best OF prospects (Zimmer, Frazier, Naquin)?

august fagerstrom: Zimmer gets significant time in 2017, Frazier 2018 and Naquin is ready now but he isn’t very good

Zonk: Cameron came out strong in his chat last week in favor of Sweet Potato Pie. Do you agree? How do you rank these holiday pies: Pumpkin, Cherry, Apple, Chocolate Cream, Pecan?

august fagerstrom: Sweet Potatoes are gross

august fagerstrom: Apple is the best pie by a mile

august fagerstrom: cherry is number two

august fagerstrom: pecan and chocolate are acceptable. you can keep the pumpkin

mtsw: Conventional SABR wisomd: 1) Relievers need ~20 pitches to warm up in the bullpen, 2) repeatedly warming up relievers without using them is bad 3) the best relievers should be used for high leverage situations regardless of inning. How can all of these be true? It’s often impossible to predict WHICH situations will be high leverage with enough lead time to warm a guy up without burning him, no?

august fagerstrom: people really, really underestimate how insanely difficult is to manage a bullpen

august fagerstrom: it’s really easy to criticize a manager and say “this guy should have been pitching in this exact moment!” without realizing that, yes, that reliever needed to be warm by then, and you need to pick and choose your spots to get guys warm wisely

Tom: If you had a HOF ballot, for whom would you vote?

august fagerstrom: Bonds, Clemens, Griffey, Bagwell, Schilling, Raines, Mussina, Piazza off the top of my head

august fagerstrom: probably Walker and Edgar on the last two but I’d have to do a deeper dive

august fagerstrom: not 100% sold on those guys

Zonk: What move last offseason was most damaging to the org that made it? Donaldson trade? Kemp trade? Ramirez FA sign?

august fagerstrom: Ramirez/Sandovdal in Boston, probably, but it’s also tough to criticize because those deals seemed mostly fair when they happened

august fagerstrom: Kemp/Grandal seemed laughably bad at the time and still seems laughably bad so that one is easier to point at

Derek: Why don’t you capitalize the A and F in your name? Also, re-rank SPIN’s top 5 albums of 2015:Vince Staples Sumertime ’06, Tame Impala Currents, Jamie XX In Colour, Courtney Barnett’s Sometimes I sit and Think, Sometimes I Just Sit, and Kendrick Lamar’s To Pimp a Butterfly.

august fagerstrom: TPAB is the best hip-hop album I’ve ever heard

august fagerstrom: that’s my AOTY by far

august fagerstrom: I loved Currents

august fagerstrom: Vince was pretty good

august fagerstrom: haven’t heard the Jamie XX or Courtney Barnett. will give those a listen soon

august fagerstrom: as for your first question, I prefer the aesthetics of lowercase letters

august fagerstrom: also, I didn’t know this would be used as my display name when I signed up

Ernie Camacho: What are the odds the Tribe’s offseason looks like this and nothing more: Sign cheap RF outfielder (Victorino, Rajai Davis, etc) and then acquire a no-glove lefty hitter, like Jaso or Pedro Alvarez. I know that would disappoint many, but those two things seem like an easy 2 win upgrade given what’s currently penciled in on the depth chart and platoon issues.

august fagerstrom: this is very possible, though I think at least one somewhat significant trade will happen

august fagerstrom: not Carrasco or Salazar, though, I think some combo of Ramirez/Perez/Chisenhall/Urshela/Naquin/Gonzalez gets moved for some outfield help

august fagerstrom: or perhaps corner infield

Bill: Better next ten years, Joey Votto or Miguel Cabrera? They’re the same age, and Steamer projects Votto to be better next year.

august fagerstrom: 10 years? Votto

The Dude: Apple based pastries (pie, strudel, etc.) are what make life worth living.

august fagerstrom: agreed