August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 3/1/16

11:43
august fagerstrom: return of the Tuesday chat!

11:43
august fagerstrom: baseball on the TV!

11:43
august fagerstrom: good day

11:44
august fagerstrom: Listen to some Grinderman

11:44
august fagerstrom: we’ll start up ’round noonish

12:02
august fagerstrom: alrighty!

12:04
august fagerstrom: wait, sorry, just a couple more minutes. we’re having some technical issues on the back end and I need to see if I can get my post up

12:04
august fagerstrom: I’m gonna go extra long this week to make up for the last two weeks

12:13
august fagerstrom: so sorry! Now we’ll start.

12:14
Michael A. Taylor: I might be better than Ben Revere, right? I should be Washington’s starting center fielder, right? Please don’t make me cry.

12:15
august fagerstrom: Yeah, you’ve got more raw talent, but it’s still rather raw, and Revere should play more than you because he’ll do a better job hitting righties

12:15
august fagerstrom: You should play against most every lefty, though

12:16
Nick: What an unholy dumpster fire the Indians’ outfield is going to be on Opening Day. What do you think they will do in CF? Also, grabbed cheap Opening Day tickets before they sold out yesterday. Kluber v Price!! 😀

12:17
august fagerstrom: It’s really ugly. I’d guess opening day outfield is some combo of Venable/Davis/Chisenhall

12:17
august fagerstrom: You really don’t want Rajai Davis playing against RHP, and you probably don’t even want him in CF

12:17
august fagerstrom: There’s a chance Tyler Naquin cracks camp with the big league club and is the everyday CF but I doubt it

12:18
august fagerstrom: I think Jose Ramirez is going to get a real chance in the OF, too. If either he or Venable can handle CF, then Venable/Ramirez/Chisenhall should be the OF vs. RHP with Butler/Cowgill/Davis handling lefties

12:18
august fagerstrom: yuck

12:18
Josh: Is Kris Medlen a good/reliable option for the defending champs as a 4-5 starter? I thought he was on the brink of cracking the rotation, but Yost said he was firmly in the rotation.

12:19
august fagerstrom: I think so. Second year after (second) TJ will be interesting.

12:19
august fagerstrom: He might end up being their second best pitcher

12:19
august fagerstrom: Which might say more about the Royals rotation than Medlen, but, yeah, I like Medlen to a certain extent

12:19
Slew: So, the projections say 87 wins for the Indians. Feel high to you?

12:20
august fagerstrom: Yeah, probably by a couple wins

12:20
august fagerstrom: Then again PECOTA says 92

12:21
Art Vandelay: Sonny Gray isn’t a terrible comp for Aaron Nola, right? He’s just a younger, softer throwing version.

12:21
august fagerstrom: Getting a little ahead of yourself. Until Nola picks up 3 mph on the fastball and obtains one of the best ground ball rates in baseball while keeping the strikeouts, this is a stretch

12:21
august fagerstrom: not saying he can’t become that, but not yet

12:21
Guest: Bovada released their win totals today. Do you ever use them as a baseline when making predictions? Did you see any that stuck out to you?

12:22
august fagerstrom: No reason I’d use those over projections, which aren’t influenced by people’s betting habits

12:22
2-D: Which side are you more on board with concerning Bobby Bradley’s organizational and FV ranking, FanGraphs (#9 & 45) or MLB.com (#3 & 55)?

12:23
august fagerstrom: Definitely closer to FG. MLB’s rankings always strike me as strange. Bradley’s bat would have to be insane for him to be 55 FV with 0 defense/baserunning value

12:23
Ty: Most unhittable pitch you’ve ever seen? Kershaw’s curve? Mo’s cutter? Dice K’s gyroball?

12:23
august fagerstrom: Mo’s cutter

12:25
BT-in-VT: Chad Bettis appeared to have a mini break-out last year. Can you see him capable of a mid 3 ERA this year?

12:25
august fagerstrom: I like Bettis a lot, relative to the team he pitches for

12:25
august fagerstrom: The stuff is good. The situation is not.

12:25
august fagerstrom: Hard to ever predict mid-3’s for a Coors guy, but he’s my favorite pitcher on that team

12:26
Northsider: Wouldn’t it make more sense for a player like Fowler/Desmond to sign with a really bad team for a 1 year contract expecting to be traded at the deadline (ending any chance to get hit with another QO) than to sign with a contender and risk having another QO placed on them?

12:27
august fagerstrom: Seems pretty speculative. Also, gotta find a bad team that’s willing to spend money they don’t need to spend for 1 year in hopes that they’ll (maybe) be able to flip an uncertain product months down the line

12:27
The Average Sports Fan: How bad does the loss of Almonte hurt the Indians? Did he miss his shot to be a starting CF?

12:27
august fagerstrom: I don’t think it hurts anything more than depth, honestly. There’s no difference really between him and Venable or Naquin. The problem isn’t losing Almonte, the problem is the outfield was shitty to begin with

12:27
Big Joe Montferrant: Over/Under at 30HR by yankee catchers this year?

12:27
august fagerstrom: under

12:27
2-D: Who do you think breaks camp as the Tribe’s fifth starter?

12:28
august fagerstrom: Bauer and Tomlin will be the 4th and 5th starters unless someone gets hurt

12:28
Big Joe Montferrant: Which current and passed player has the coolest swing, in your opinion?

12:28
august fagerstrom: Past: Vlad/Manny, Current: Ichiro/Beltre

12:28
Braca Obama: Hendricks or Warren for the 5th CHC rotation spot?

12:28
august fagerstrom: Hendricks’ job to lose

12:28
Raindog: I cannot understand why the Orioles would rather give up a prospect for the right to pay $13M to below replacement Jay Bruce, than not give up a prospect and pay less to have pretty useful Austin Jackson. Do you understand?

12:28
august fagerstrom: might be overstating the difference between Jay Bruce and Austin Jackson

12:29
MikeMilligan: I look at the Dodgers and it still appears that they need a quality set up reliever. Do you think Miller could be available once Chapman is done with his suspension?

12:29
august fagerstrom: Yankees were adamant when they acquired Chapman that they’d keep all 3, and I certainly don’t know why they’d decide now to make their on-field product worse when they plan to contend

12:30
august fagerstrom: Dodgers don’t have a solid second option in the bullpen, but they’ve got a lot of really interesting pieces with upside (basically every other reliever in the pen). Think they’re counting on one of those guys to take a step forward, which I think is a fine idea

12:31
Gerb: Is there any better opening day matchup this year than Kluber vs. Price?

12:32
august fagerstrom: Felix-Hamels, Sale-Gray, and Keuchel-Tanaka will be pretty awesome, but yeah, Kluber-Price take the cake

12:32
Alex: Who are the LotR equivalents in MLB baseball? Gandalf=Maddon, Frodo=Altuve, Aragorn=Kershaw, Boromir=CC Sabathia, Legolas=Jose Fernandez, Gimli=David Ortiz, Sam=Dee Gordon, Saruman=Bud Selig, Sauron=Jeffrey Loria.

12:32
august fagerstrom: no idea who these characters are

12:33
Chris: Where could you see improvements in Mookie Betts’ game to get him to the next tier of players in that 6 win range?

12:33
august fagerstrom: he’s already in that range

12:33
Big Joe Montferrant: Lets say there are 2 players in the amateur draft. One is a SPer with an 80 fastball and 80 slider but he is 5’6, 170 pounds, and the other has a 70 fastball and 70 slider but is 6’5, 230 pounds. Which one gets drafted first? (same age, same numbers, same college)

12:34
august fagerstrom: Outta my league here, but I’ll say the second guy because of projectability stuff

12:34
august fagerstrom: I’d guess the words “downward plane” would be invoked too

12:34
august fagerstrom: 5’6 is a little absudr

12:34
august fagerstrom: absurd*

12:35
Ben and Matt: Will Blake Treinen figure it out this year? Everyone seems to agree that his stuff is electric, but he hasn’t been able to put it all together.

12:35
august fagerstrom: he’s been pretty good already

12:35
august fagerstrom: tons of ground balls, and last year he started getting whiffs too

12:35
august fagerstrom: should be an asset

12:35
carl: How would you rate the Cubs chances of winning more games than the 2001 Mariners? (ie, 117) Obviously, not high, cause no one is likely to do that, but the Cubs seems to me the best team I’ve seen in baseball for years.

12:36
august fagerstrom: 3%

12:36
Jeet: You are a Carlos Santana truther and I really liked your tweet but your sample was drawn over several seasons but last season was exceptionally bad. Do you think that was an injury-related outlier or is that a trend?

12:36
august fagerstrom: was it exceptionally bad, though? is 10% above league average at the plate “exceptionally bad”?

12:37
august fagerstrom: that’s average 1B production, with a track record of way above average 1B production

12:37
august fagerstrom: I literally had fans tweeting and e-mailing me daily while I was covering the saying he should be DFA’d or sent to the minors

12:38
august fagerstrom: I think the guy had a bit of an off year and was still a pretty good hitter

12:38
David: The Blue Jays are better than their projection.

12:38
august fagerstrom: heard it here first, folks

12:38
The Snakes: Who has a regular gig/better slash in the year end – Jake Lamb or Brandon Drury?

12:38
august fagerstrom: Lamb’s defense keeps him in the field

12:39
august fagerstrom: they could both have a regular gig if two of Owings/Segura/Ahmed don’t hit, which seems very plausible

12:39
Con: What do you predict actually ends up happening with Soler this season? Really seems like a roadblock to a break out season given the PT issues in CHC.

12:40
august fagerstrom: I think they move forward with what they have, split LF about 50/50 with Schwarber/Soler, let Schwarber catch occasionally, and spell Fowler from time to time with Heyward in CF and Schwarber/Soler in the corners

12:40
august fagerstrom: I think Schwarber and Soler can both get 500 PA, and be deployed more optimally than if they played everyday. Cubs get to know they’ve got the depth to survive a major injury at basically any position and not be crippled

12:41
Neil: What if everyone in the Toronto stadium all blew air out of their mouthes or used a promotional hand fan every time Dickey threw a pitch? I bet the knuckleball would be 1% better.

12:41
august fagerstrom: not only that but they might get to set a Guinness World Record for “most people blowing in a stadium out of their mouths at once”

12:42
Shishito Pepper: Do you buy the Indians at > 50% to win the division?

12:42
august fagerstrom: no but I think they’ve got as good a shot as anyone

12:42
august fagerstrom: them or the Royals would be my favorites. >50% seems insane for how much parity appears to be in that division (and league)

12:42
Louis: Where do the Tigers end up?

12:43
august fagerstrom: Detroit for a little while longer, at least

12:44
Eric: Do you think Giolito gets called up after the super 2 deadline?

12:44
august fagerstrom: not if Roark and Ross are pitching the way they can

12:44
august fagerstrom: they won’t force it if they don’t have to

12:44
Maury: You said you had technical issues but the article you just posted has determined that was a lie!

12:44
august fagerstrom: not true! it was set to publish at 11 and we had an hour’s worth of technical issues

12:44
Ben: Ooooo. Grinderman. Nick Cave and Tom Waits are the two artists who I await daily for their next release, should it ever come. No one like ’em!

12:45
august fagerstrom: I started getting really ansty for new Nick Cave material last night

12:45
The Other Sox: If Heyward averages 30 home runs over the next few years, is he in line for a $400 million+ contract?

12:46
august fagerstrom: and keeps the defense? that’s like a 7-win player entering his age-29 season… yeah, it’d be over $300 million easy.

12:47
Guest: Give us your hot hot take on Cole’s comments. Boras and Cole would surely give the Pirates a discount when it came to arbitration and free agency if the Pirates gave him more money now, right?

12:47
august fagerstrom: my thought on Cole’s comments is that he isn’t special

12:48
august fagerstrom: not meaning that he’s not amazing — he is — meaning that he’s no different than every other star in the making that made the minimum from one to three

12:48
august fagerstrom: and Boras doesn’t really do extensions

12:49
jeff: RE: Michael A. Taylor question, if his tools are still raw and since the Nat’s are in a win now mode, wouldn’t it be better if Michael Taylor goes back to the minors to refine those tools by playing everyday, rather than sit on the bench and play sporadically?

12:49
august fagerstrom: they don’t have a better option, and whatever he contributes in his part time role for a contending team this year is likely more valuable than whatever added development he may or may not gain from playing every day in AAA rather than every third day in the MLB

12:51
Andrew: Conventional wisdom states that among prospects, hitters are safer than pitchers. But it seems hitters have a much higher chance of underperforming, compared to pitchers. Unless a pitcher has a career-ending injury, he usually meets or exceeds his projections. Hitters, on the other hand, are all over the place. The article on 2006 prospects exemplifies this pretty well. Is it time to rethink our conventional wisdom that hitters are safer than pitchers?

12:51
august fagerstrom: “Unless a pitcher has a career-ending injury, he usually meets or exceeds his projections”

12:52
august fagerstrom: I’m not sure there’s enough evidence to support this assertion. Pitchers can become a 0 on any pitch. Hitters don’t really have that. That’s why hitters are considered safer

12:52
august fagerstrom: Until TJ goes away — or even goes down — that will remain

12:52
Aaron: August, I’ve been meaning to ask you for a couple weeks now… I consider The Life of Pablo to be the median Kanye album. Agree?

12:52
august fagerstrom: I absolutely love it

12:53
august fagerstrom: That being said I guess you might be right. It’s tough to put such a new record into historical context but I’d probably go Late Registration > Yeezus > MBDTF > College Dropout > TLOP > WTT > Graduation > 808 which would put it in the middle

12:53
august fagerstrom: His discography is just so strong

12:54
Guest: Josh Reddick could still be traded, and the Cardinals/Indians make a lot of sense, right?

12:55
august fagerstrom: I don’t think the Cardinals are necessarily itching to add an OF — Holliday, Grichuk and Piscotty has the potential to be pretty strong

12:56
august fagerstrom: I’ve thought Reddick to Cleveland has made some sense for most of the offseason, but I also kind of thought they might move Chisenhall and he’s still there, and the A’s have stated they’re keeping Reddick all winter and there hasn’t been a single rumor so no reason to believe to the contrary, I suppose

12:56
august fagerstrom: Though the recent Coghlan addition just adds to a glut of outfielders in Oakland

12:57
august fagerstrom: I mean, Coghlan, Crisp, Canha, Fuld are all bench players, one of which (probably Fuld) doesn’t even have a spot on the ML roster. Seems like something’s gotta give there. Doesn’t mean it’ll be Reddick though

12:57
jtt: Im rooting for the tigers but a weird part of me wants to root for the royals when dave posts his inevitable “defend the projections” post. Do I have psychological issues?

12:57
august fagerstrom: We’ve questioned the projections all winter

12:58
august fagerstrom: You’ve got to look at it from both sides

12:58
august fagerstrom: Otherwise you won’t learn anything

12:58
august fagerstrom: I for one am rooting for the Royals again too. The more they do this, the better we can understand where we are

12:58
Sean : Are you buying the Marlins being projected for more wins than AZ?

12:58
august fagerstrom: nope

12:59
NutButters: Based on the overinflation Boston seems to get amongst projections over the last few years, is it fair to say that their 88 wins and the best odds of making the WS roughly equate to 81 wins and a feasible chance at the WC? I’m really starting to see the “FenGraphs” trend, and it’s perplexing to me.

12:59
august fagerstrom: there’s no historical precedent for teams under/overperforming their projections for multiple years, so, no

1:00
guest guest guest: best looking swing you’ve ever seen? mine is cano’s

1:00
august fagerstrom: cliche but Junior

1:00
august fagerstrom: when I mentioned Manny for “coolest” earlier, too, what made it so cool to me is how pretty and easy it looked

1:01
senpaisanto:

1:01
Ruby: Biggest positional hole on a contender? Indians OF, Astros 1B, Royals 2B, Giants LF, Angels LF seem like top candidates.

1:01
august fagerstrom: Royals entire rotation

1:01
Matt: Re team projections: Are they just composites of the individual players comprising the depth charts? Or is there any kind of “schedule simulation” going on at all in the recipe? I’d think that a strong team in a weak division would get a 4-5 win boost from the extra opportunities to beat up on the bad teams they play more often.

1:02
august fagerstrom: I *believe* the WAR projection is just a sum and the standings are a schedule simulation

1:02
august fagerstrom: Don’t quote me on that though

1:02
Bork: Who breaks camp as the Jays 5th starter?

1:02
august fagerstrom: Chavez I’d imagine

1:02
Bad Hermit: Hate to keep bringing this up, but looking at past season’s playoff odds still doesn’t work for me. It produces an error. I know you don’t deal with the back-end, it just happens to be your chat day.

1:03
august fagerstrom: I’ll let Appelman know

1:03
MikeD: Thanks for chatting August! Thoughts on Raisel Iglesias? Depending on where you look he seems like one of the more polarizing guys this spring, some have him verging on top-25 while others have him barely in top-75.

1:03
august fagerstrom: I love him. The stuff is nasty. He’s probably my favorite under-the-radar breakout guy this year

1:04
august fagerstrom: Top-25 seems insane though

1:04
Ol Sea Capn : Percentage chance that Ketel Marte is just as good as Ian Desmond but at reduced cost and no media spotlight?

1:04
august fagerstrom: >50%

1:04
Ben: Swisher’s been really bad the past two years, but he’s also had knee injuries. With him supposedly being healthy, can Braves expect anything close to the .240avg/.340obp with 20hr he put up in 2013?

1:05
august fagerstrom: Swish is toast

1:05
Don Von Handburger: What is the chance that Syndergaard is the best of the Mets pitchers over the next 2 years? 15%?

1:05
august fagerstrom: 33% deGrom, 32% Harvey, 31% Syndergaaard, 4% other

1:06
kevinthecomic: Coolest Swing (past): Garth Iorg. Seriously, look it up!

1:06
You Better You Better You Betts: Does Mookie get to 20-20 this year? Hit a really nice home run yesterday(albeit against a college pitcher), but I like his potential power.

1:06
august fagerstrom: yeah, he’s as good a 20-20 bet as anyone

1:06
Connor: Given how terrible the Tribe’s outfield options are, could you see them moving a pitcher for someone like JBJ/Soler? What would such a deal look like?

1:07
august fagerstrom: Would’ve happened by now if that would’ve happened

1:07
Bork: Do you believe Kevin Pillar can maintain his 5 WAR production? Or better yet, improve his hitting and get even better?

1:07
august fagerstrom: I’d confidently bet against that

1:07
The Other Sox: Is there a team everyone expects to contend that you are particularly down on?

1:07
august fagerstrom: the Giants

1:08
august fagerstrom: not that I don’t expect them to contend. I’m just not nearly as high on them as everyone else

1:08
Slew: Do you think if Nolan reads your article he’ll be mad at you?

1:08
august fagerstrom: I basically just talked about how awesome he was the whole time so that would be a weird reaction

1:09
august fagerstrom: I’d imagine he knows pitchers are going to try and stay away from the inside next year

1:09
guest guest guest: am i right in my way of thinking? steamer projections are correct when they love a player, and may or may not be correct when they hate a player?

1:09
august fagerstrom: unless you hate the player it loves

1:11
Josh: On the Dodgers bullpen, I think you might be underrating how good Chris Hatcher was after he came off the DL last year. I think he is going to be a really good bridge to Jansen

1:11
august fagerstrom: I talked up the bullpen?

1:11
august fagerstrom: Hatcher is one of those interesting high upside pieces I mentioned

1:11
Nick: Geez, another baseless bashing of Carlos Santana. Where the hell does this come from? Is it as simple as people looking only at batting average, or what?

1:11
august fagerstrom: to the casual fan– yes

1:12
august fagerstrom: not saying this is the case with the previous commenter

1:12
Big Joe Montferrant: If you were a player on the Mets, would seeing Cespedes drive up in 6 differently loud supercars in the first week of ST rub you the wrong way?

1:13
august fagerstrom: Could just as easily be used as inspiration. “Work hard and you, too, can possess a fleet of supercars”

1:13
Teddy Brosevelt : Do you think Gomes bounces back this year? Can we blame last year on the knee injury?

1:13
august fagerstrom: It’s a very reasonable explanation

1:13
august fagerstrom: The most likely explanation, probably

1:13
august fagerstrom: I think he is a lot closer to the 2014 guy than 2015

1:14
CJ Cronie: Is the AL Central the most interesting division in baseball this year?

1:14
august fagerstrom: or the AL East

1:15
DGCO: Can you confirm that the Rockies will never be any good with the current ownership and lack of a team president to bring some guidance and accountability? Or is the problem something else? I’m just kidding myself that they will ever contend, no?

1:15
august fagerstrom: I’m not convinced a winner can be built and sustained at Coors Field

1:15
Bork: “most people blowing in a stadium” – they’d take that record from the 2015 Phillies!

1:15
august fagerstrom: I chuckled

1:15
Marcus A.: The Indians look like a contender with a dumpster fire of an outfield. The best free agent available is an outfielder who won’t cost a ton or a draft pick. This seems to obvious, is it going to happen?

1:15
august fagerstrom: They’re reportedly tapped out of payroll

1:16
GSon: BTW>.. Detroit ends up in Atlanta.. as part of two game series to end their regular season..

1:16
august fagerstrom: well played

1:16
Art Vandelay: Carter Capps MRI on his throwing arm…too soon

1:16
august fagerstrom: NOOOOOOOO

1:16
august fagerstrom: I just remembered how many awesome amazing pitchers are going to get hurt between now and Opening Day

1:16
august fagerstrom: just instinctively dropped an f-bomb on accident and I’m not sure if I’m allowed to do that here so lemme delete that real quick

1:17
Nelson: Are any of the Mets pitchers better than Scherzer or Strass?

1:17
august fagerstrom: Scherzer no Strasburg very possibly/probably

1:17
august fagerstrom: Scherzer is the best one. Strasburg/deGrom/Harvey/Syndegaard are all in a pool together

1:17
august fagerstrom: not sure why they’re in a pool but they are

1:18
august fagerstrom: they’re also very similarly skilled pitchers

1:18
Art Vandelay: Is Buxton’s defense rated too highly just because of his superlative “tools?” Isn’t there more to OF defense than just being really, really, ridiculously athletic?

1:18
august fagerstrom: do we have any reason to believe the tools aren’t translating?

1:19
august fagerstrom: by all accounts they are and have been

1:19
Cal Guy: Which 1B would you rather have this season: Josh Bell or AJ Reed? And how about long term?

1:19
august fagerstrom: Reed/Reed

1:21
august fagerstrom: why is everyone talking about Kakie Bryan

1:21
august fagerstrom: that’s not a thing

1:21
Nelson: you have Tidal??!

1:21
august fagerstrom: Yeezy taught me

1:22
Marc: If there is no significant injury to a teams 1b, what does Pedro Alvarez do? does he finally step up and go around Boras and take a platoon DH job?

1:22
august fagerstrom: Orioles seem to make some sense, but they might be hesitant to force Trumbo into everyday RF

1:22
august fagerstrom: and it seems inevitable they’ll end up with Jackson anyway

1:23
august fagerstrom: I can’t for the life of me figure a fit for Alvarez in the AL

1:23
august fagerstrom: and I certainly cant see an NL team making that mistake

1:23
august fagerstrom: unless he signs up as a full-time pinch hitter for a contender or something

1:25
Alex: Addison Russell is projected by BP to be poor defender at SS (-3 FRAA). The eye test tells me he’s well above average. Do you know why his defense would be projected so low?

1:25
august fagerstrom: Certainly can’t speak for BP’s projection but one guess might be that players who come up and immediately play 2B historically don’t make for good SS, otherwise they would’ve debuted at SS

1:25
august fagerstrom: I dunno

1:25
august fagerstrom: Obviously extenuating circumstances in Russell’s case

1:25
august fagerstrom: He should be an excellent defensive SS

1:26
Teddy Brosevelt : Is Garrett Richards top 25 for you?

1:26
august fagerstrom: yeah

1:26
Nelson: Do you pick the titles to your own articles?

1:26
august fagerstrom: most of the time, though I’ll often consult with Cistulli

1:27
klenphak: Will Jackie Bradley Jr shine this year or become Kevin Kiermaier?

1:27
august fagerstrom: aren’t those the same thing?

1:28
klenphak: do you play scoresheet baseball?

1:28
august fagerstrom: I’m not sure what scoresheet is but a quick googling leads me to believe it’s similar to WhatIfSports’ Hardball Dynasty, which I and the rest of the Indians beat crew (and various other beat writers in our league) are absolutely obsessed with

1:29
Dewey Evans: Why does Beltre do so much better with rWAR than fWAR? It’s more than a win difference in most recent years.

1:29
august fagerstrom: UZR probably doesn’t like the defense as much

1:30
The Average Sports Fan: Why are the Royals not playing Dyson in CF when he plays with Cain?

1:30
august fagerstrom: because it’s Lorenzo Cain

1:30
Bork: Darwin Barney just doubled in his first AB. Jays 2B problems are solved (until Travis comes back).

1:30
august fagerstrom: never thought I’d be so excited hearing a Darwin Barney update

1:30
august fagerstrom: this is the first report of live baseball with major leaguers being played this year. happy times

1:31
Cal Guy: Any specific reasons you are down on the Giants?

1:32
august fagerstrom: not sold on the pitching, think the infield comes back down to earth all the way around

1:32
Daniel: WTT after TLOP and College Dropout!? WAKE UP AUGUST

1:33
august fagerstrom: WTT is still like a 7/10 for me. I genuinely love every album except 808’s, which even though I don’t enjoy listening to it might have been the most important/influential hip-hop/r&b record of the last ~10 years until To Pimp a Butterfly came out

1:34
klenphak: so you think Bradley JR and Kiermaier have similar upsides?

1:34
august fagerstrom: I think Bradley could be Kiermaier-ish, yeah

1:34
august fagerstrom: obviously without predicting +40 run seasons in the field

1:34
Rufus T. Firefly: My wife and I nearly named our son August. You get the dignity of August, the toughness of Gus, and the cuteness of Augie. Great name.

1:34
august fagerstrom: this is awesome.

1:35
Art Vandelay: I know Perez’s extension adds two more years, but it was in large part a “make-good” type deal, right?

1:36
august fagerstrom: I think so, yeah. I’ll be honest, as a Royals fan, I’m not sure I’d want to see money and years being thrown at Salvador Perez. with that approach, the bat is frighteningly close to unplayable, he’s taken plenty of beatings the last few years, and BP has him projected as a 0.9 WARP player this year with his very negative framing factored in

1:37
august fagerstrom: I know he’s beloved and has been a staple of their best teams etc etc but he doesn’t strike me as a very good long-term bet

1:37
Art Vandelay: Every male on my mother’s side of the family has the middle name August.

1:37
august fagerstrom: seriously?

1:37
Anthony: Cubs bullpen…why is no one talking about how terrible it is? Arrieta isn’t doing what he did last year. Lackey isn’t doing what he did last year. Lester is a year older w/ a lot of mileage on him. Feels like the bullpen, or 1 injury in that rotation and the rails could easily come off in Chicago.

1:37
august fagerstrom: wait what?

1:37
august fagerstrom: I’m confused as to whether you’re talking about the bullpen or the rotation, both of which should be quite good

1:38
august fagerstrom: “____ isn’t doing what he did last year.” as a definitive statement isn’t a very good analytical evaluation, either

1:38
Joe: I shouldn’t be surprised that a baseball writer is into Hardball Dynasty, but it’s also not everyday I come across HBD players. How long have you been playing? A good friend of mine recently dropped his teams after the updates to the site, so I actually have found myself losing interest without the constant competitive banter we had going back and forth.

1:39
august fagerstrom: this is my 4th season and after three long, brutal rebuild years, the St. Louis Archers are finally primed as a playoff contender.

1:39
august fagerstrom: our group goes all-out. I’m in the BBWAA world, we have a group thread with constant shit-talking and meme-making, fake-team Twitter accounts, the whole nine





August used to cover the Indians for MLB and ohio.com, but now he's here and thinks writing these in the third person is weird. So you can reach me on Twitter @AugustFG_ or e-mail at august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com.

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formerly matt w
8 years ago

I can tell you who those characters are, August.

Maddon: Cubs manager, former Rays manager
Altuve: Astros 2B
Kershaw: Dodgers LH starter, Cy Young perennial
CC Sabathia: Yankees starter, former star, signed to expensive contract
Jose Fernandez: Young Marlins starter, recently returned from Tommy John surgery
David Ortiz: Red Sox DH, retiring after this year
Dee Gordon: Marlins 2B, formerly with Dodgers
Bud Selig: Former commissioner and before that Brewers owner
Jeffrey Loria: Satan