August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 3/15/16

august fagerstrom: chat time!

august fagerstrom: soundtrack: The Foreign Exchange – Connected

august fagerstrom: Gonna put on a FRESH POT and we’ll get started at noon

The Dude of NY: And people say A’s fans have nothing to look forward to in 2016!

august fagerstrom: A’s baseball: come for the gnomes, stay for the gnomes

daneyko: Steven Matz should be able to pitch 190 IP this season. Are you agree with manager Collins ?

august fagerstrom: He’s never thrown more than 140 in a year so 190 seems like a pretty big jump, especially considering how many innings they can expect to get out of the top of the rotation, so I probably wouldn’t press him if I didn’t have t

august fagerstrom: but if the Mets think 190 will be fine, they know Matz’ arm better than I do

cargo-5: almost everyone love Carlos Rodon. With a 1.44 whip in ’15, are you a big fan ? What to expect of Rodon this season ?

august fagerstrom: Yeah, I think the reason why people love him is because it’s hard not to love someone who jumps straight to the bigs after 30 innings in the minors and does what he did

august fagerstrom: He wasn’t polished last year, but he shouldn’t have been expected to be. Everyone knew the command needed work, and the walks will certainly have to come down for sustained success, but he had a hell of a debut

august fagerstrom: You’d like to see the changeup come along a bit, too

SP: select 2 SP if you are a manager in the show: Teheran, Ventura, Odorizzi, Iglesias and T.Walker

august fagerstrom: like forever? I guess Teheran and Iglesias?

E: Do you know if Eno is planning on releasing his own Top 300 Draft List like last year?

august fagerstrom: not sure, but he chats Thursday so you can ask him then!

JDogg: If Buxton struggles in April, with the Twins demote him?

august fagerstrom: doubt they’d do it that quickly

august fagerstrom: I think also, with Buxton, given he’s healthy, he’d have to REALLY not hit for him not to be a valuable piece with his speed + center field defense

august fagerstrom: but no, I’d say the leash goes until at least June or so, by which time they could perhaps call up Kepler and move Rosario to center, or perhaps Santana if other stuff is going on. I’d be surprised if Buxton plays anywhere but the majors this year, though

CamdenWarehouse: I saw Metric live last week. Incredible show – both the music and performance.

august fagerstrom: Buddy of mine at a poker game just told me the same thing on Sunday. I saw them open for Muse many years back. Never really listened to them but dug the opener

Jake M: Do you think Danks will still be the 5th starter in the White Sox rotation for most of the season?

august fagerstrom: They don’t really have much of a choice, do they?

august fagerstrom: He’s not going anywhere with that contract, and they don’t really have anyone better. Erik Johnson does not impress me

august fagerstrom: The scary part is wondering what happens if Danks ends up having to be the 4th starter or higher

CamdenWarehouse: Will Micah Johnson see playing time this year?

august fagerstrom: Doubt he gets consistent playing time

august fagerstrom: Between Kendrick, Utley, Hernandez, even Barnes, the Dodgers have plenty more solid options in the event of injury.

august fagerstrom: That being said, Johnson is a useful bench piece to have around because of his speed, so maybe he gets the call ahead of a Barnes in the event of an injury if the Dodgers just need a bench piece rather than an everyday starter

august fagerstrom: But it’s hard to see him getting consistent PT with that depth

Doc: Which team will have the best bottom half of the lineup this year?

august fagerstrom: Cubs?

august fagerstrom: Never really thought about this but that sounds right

august fagerstrom: Blue Jays probably have the better overall lineup but Cubs are so deep

Turd Ferguson: Do you think this is the year Jose Ramirez (Indians) breaks out and lives up to the KATOH projections?

august fagerstrom: Not sure what KATOH says but I like Ramirez as a starting-caliber player who’s coming off the bench for Cleveland. If he was capable of handling CF everyday he’d be playing out there everyday but I’d be shocked if he were able to adjust to the OF that quickly

Q-Ball: Ruben Tejada to the Cardinals….is this inevitable? Maybe the White Sox make a play if they’re not sold on Rollins?

august fagerstrom: Sure seems so

august fagerstrom: White Sox seem unlikely

Jon D: What are the odds that De leon or Urias break camp in the Dodger’s rotation?

august fagerstrom: Super duper unlikely

PS: At what point does Glasnow get a rotation spot? Berrios?

august fagerstrom: Glasnow should be up as soon as possible post-Super 2. That Pirates rotation needs help. The Twins, I think, can be a bit more patient with Berrios, because they’ve got enough depth in their rotation to get by, I think

august fagerstrom: I’d wager Glasnow gets up in June and Berrios in July

Ides of Marsh: what is your viewpoint on Michael Pineda’s production this year?

august fagerstrom: Stud if healthy

august fagerstrom: Same as ever

august fagerstrom: Tough to bank on >160 IP though

Josh: With the addition of Kris Davis, it appears that Coco Crisp will be the 4th outfielder and some DH time. What are your thoughts on how Coco will be used in Oakland?

august fagerstrom: Still kinda surprised Josh Reddick hasn’t been dealt

august fagerstrom: A’s seem to have one too many players, and Billy Butler isn’t going anywhere

Erik: Maikel Franco had a nearly identical ISO to Kris Bryant, with half the K% (though Bryant walked 50% more). Which skill set projects for a better offensive career? Consensus seems to be Bryant, but looking at the stats I’m not so sure.

august fagerstrom: Bryant by far

Zonk: I don’t understand the Indians inaction. OK, maybe $5 mil for Austin Jackson was too much money, and the Tribe is broke. But why not Victorino on a minor-league deal? Or top the meh return the A’s gave up for Coghlan? With all the OF trading hands, I don’t understand why the Indians are happy with an opening day OF of Cowgill-Davis-Chisenhall. What say you, Clevelander?

august fagerstrom: I do not think Jackson for $5M would be too much for Cleveland, in fact I think if they could’ve gotten that, they should have, but apparently he wanted to stay in Chicago and would’ve needed more to come to Cleveland, so $5M wasn’t an option

august fagerstrom: I’m a little surprised they’re content with the OF they have, too, and Almonte being out doesn’t really change much IMO

august fagerstrom: They’re betting on depth and platoons working out

august fagerstrom: Which is one of those things you kinda have to do as a small market team sometimes, but, man, tough to sell anyone on that OF on a contender

Jon: Can Prince Fielder match last year’s production?

august fagerstrom: sure

jv: Does Ken Giles develop into an elite closer this year?

august fagerstrom: Ken Giles developed into an elite relief pitcher two years ago

august fagerstrom: all he has to do now is pitch an inning later

jv: Byung-Ho Park: believer or non-believer and why

august fagerstrom: believer until proven otherwise because goodness gracious look at those dingers

jv: Give me a Byron Buxton projection this year

august fagerstrom: I very rarely deviate too far from the actual projection systems on this

august fagerstrom: I’m maybe a bit higher on the bat, but I’ll say league-average hitter with super plus defense in CF and super plus baserunning value, so like a ~3.5 WAR guy

Q-Ball: What players have really stood out to you so far this spring, good or bad?

august fagerstrom: I’ve written about the only two that have really jumped out — Hyun-soo Kim on the bad end and Franco on the good end

Ace: 2018 Starting CF for the Indians . . . Zimmer or Frazier?

august fagerstrom: Zimmer

august fagerstrom: Frazier in a corner

august fagerstrom: that corner being RF

august fagerstrom: though I’m not sure Frazier is 2018 Opening Day RF

Michael: Last year everyone said Lindor wouldn’t be much of a fantasy asset, I’m hearing the same stuff about Orlando Arcia, more glove than bat. I dealt away Lindor because of that last year, kept Aricia trying to redeem myself. How do you see it play out?

august fagerstrom: Lindor should be viewed as the exception, not the rule

jv: What do you think of Gerrardo Parra this season?

august fagerstrom: Think offensively he’s a good fit for Coors with the adjustments he made to get more pull lift last year, and for fantasy purposes, he’s very interesting. In real life, I’m skeptical of him seeing too much time in CF

Gerb: Francona is trying out Jose Ramirez in CF, I would like to see his bat in the lineup as much as possible, but do you think he has the defensive tools to make him an asset there?

august fagerstrom: The only other option for CF in my mind is Tyler Naquin. If Ramirez could even fake it in CF (-5 or so) he would be the best bet, but with Naquin available, I don’t think they need to go down the experiment road

august fagerstrom: In terms of speed and glove and whatnot, it seems reasonable that he would eventually be able to handle it, but he’s got very little OF experience and almost no CF experience

august fagerstrom: Also playing the infield is completely different than playing the OF, so no saying his good infield glove even translates to the outfield. He’s certainly athletic enough, though

November Fagerstrom: I think Michael Taylor should be a starting outfielder from opening day. Am I a terrible person?

august fagerstrom: well, no, but I don’t see much reason why he should play vs. RHP over Revere

Ben: A president like Shapiro, that apparently blasted Alex Anthopolous for trading all of the prospect capital that he did at the deadline, surely isn’t going to send a Pitcher like Sanchez to the Bullpen in favor of Gavin Floyd right?? They have to let him at least fail as a starter before going back to the bullpen…..

august fagerstrom: couldn’t he send Sanchez to the bullpen in favor of Jesse Chavez?

august fagerstrom: I really doubt Floyd gets a rotation spot over both Sanchez and Chavez

Erik: Which is more likely: pitchers figure out how to take advantage of Maikel Franco’s aggressiveness and he strikes out a lot more, becoming a merely pretty good hitter, or Franco matures and learns to walk a lot more while keeping the K’s low, becoming an MVP candidate?

august fagerstrom: probably the former

august fagerstrom: he’s always been a super aggressive swinger. that’s in his hitting DNA. tough to see that changing

GSon: Hey Augie… how are the new digs in downtown working out?

august fagerstrom: still in Kent until exactly 1 month from today

august fagerstrom: thanks for inquiring though! can’t wait to get up there

Kenny: Please tell me the real reason my Rangers signed Ian Desmond is because they are planning on trading Elvis to make room for Nomar Mazara in Left Field as well as to serve as a stop gap for when Profar is ready next year.

august fagerstrom: but I don’t want to lie to you

Nelson: I creeped on you on google. You got a man bun, bro?

august fagerstrom: I do, bro

august fagerstrom: didn’t know this was a creepable thing on Google

august fagerstrom: man, the internet is a crazy place

august fagerstrom: just Google imaged myself, and this was the first result:

august fagerstrom: just a heads-up: I am *not* that dude

GSon: Tomlin or Anderson?..

august fagerstrom: Tomlin, then Clevinger, then Anderson

august fagerstrom: and actually, I like Clevinger more than Tomlin, but Tomlin is the 5th starter to open the year

Michigan Fan: JD Martinez hits a lot of bombs but strikes out a lot. A good chance his average falls significantly this year?

august fagerstrom: i wouldn’t count on it. he hits the poop out of the ball

Jeet: Does Josh Bell get significant playing time for the Pirates this season? Why did they sign Jaso when he was available? Or he is Andrew Lambo 2.0?

august fagerstrom: they signed Jaso because they’re a contender, Bell has never seen major league pitching and they probably didn’t want to start his clock on Opening Day, and they had no one to hit RHP while playing 1B

august fagerstrom: Jaso hits the hell out of RHP, and, for now, is a far more certain thing to produce than Bell

august fagerstrom: when Jaso gets hurt, Bell will be up. but Jaso barely cost anything, and gives them certainty, and depth

Nik: Franco’s reasonable season HR total over/under: 35?

august fagerstrom: whoa. way under.

august fagerstrom: easy now

august fagerstrom: I’d probably set the O/U at 25

august fagerstrom: no one is taking the over on 35 with money on the line, I don’t think

Ben: If in June, the Indians pitching is preforming well andthe Indians Offense needs help, which I think it will, does Frazier or Zimmer have that type of offensive ability to make a major difference in the second half?

august fagerstrom: Frazier is just too far away. No chance he plays in the majors this year

august fagerstrom: Zimmer is close enough to being ready, and he has enough overall ability to make an impact this year, yeah. They wouldn’t think in terms of “offensive ability” they’d think in terms of “can this player help our team” and Zimmer would be able to. That being said, I’d still be somewhat surprised if he’s up this year, the Indians are just so cautious with their prospects

Johnny5Alive: wait do you do fantasy qyestions?

august fagerstrom: no, not really

Bruce: Wheres your grandfathers silver medal? Do you ever wear it?

august fagerstrom: in a case at my dad’s house and no, I do not, haha

august fagerstrom: great grandfather*

Bruce: PNC or ATT (san fran) Field?

august fagerstrom: not sure what you’re asking but I can tell you that these are my 2 favorite stadiums I’ve ever visisted

Timbo: There is not alot of conversation around Lucas Duda this spring. More of the same or is there a step forward in his future?

august fagerstrom: kinda seems like he is what he is, which is a really, really good hitter who doesn’t need a step forward to be super valuable

Bruce: Everyone says that Lindor cant keep up his power numbers, but aside from some Brady Anderson-esque help, how does someone “fluke” into a high ISO, in a not tiny sample size?

august fagerstrom: One thing I can say from watching all his games last year is that it seemed like every one of his home runs cleared the wall by about 10 inches

august fagerstrom: Couple of those turn into outs and that’s a significant difference in the ISO

Corey Dickerson: Why does everyone hate me this season? I am one of the most promising young players (only 27) and had plantar fascitis all last season.

august fagerstrom: you left Coors Field

august fagerstrom: and you won’t ever face lefties

Jeet: Does fantasy baseball’s popularity bother you?

august fagerstrom: nope, I play myself. I just can’t answer fantasy questions with any type of certainty because every team and league is so different that I’d just be taking shots in the dark without knowing every single detail of your league’s format, and your teams strengths/weaknesses, etc., and I don’t care to know all of that stuff about everyone’s fantasy league

Bryan CA: Wow Christian Arroyo and Mac Williamson can flat out rake! What are your expectations and how the heck have the Giants continued to produce these under the radar studs?

august fagerstrom: to be fair those guys were both early-round picks, but the Giants player development on the hitting side just seems to be way ahead of the competition

august fagerstrom: aside from perhaps the Cardinals

august fagerstrom: No idea how they do it. But they’ve been doing it

Ross Atkins: The last spot in my rotation goes to?

august fagerstrom: I’d give it to Chavez

gill: speaking of Buxton, chances of him being a stud this year?

august fagerstrom: He’s just a small offensive boost away from being a complete stud

Michigan Fan: Can you make a case that deGrom is the 2nd best pitcher in baseball?

august fagerstrom: no but he’s really good

august fagerstrom: tough to make the argument for him over Arrieta, Scherzer, Fernandez, Sale

Corb: Chances Medlen has a better year than Kennedy?

august fagerstrom: pretty decent

august fagerstrom: Kennedy will have him on innings, but I’d wager Medlen posts the better numbers

The Average Sports Fan: Is any team as well positioned to make a major move as the Dodgers are?

august fagerstrom: They’ve got all the money and all the prospects, so probably not

Mike: Do the cubs end up moving one of Soler/ Schwarber or Baez this season?

august fagerstrom: If a hole opens up, possibly

august fagerstrom: As currently constructed, the roster has no holes.

august fagerstrom: So there’s no need, really

Ronnie: Would you say someone like Vinnie Rottino who has over 2,600 AAA plate appearances but only 100 MLB PA’s is more replacement level or AAAA?

august fagerstrom: same thing essentially

GSon: Tyler Naquin = 417 / .440 /1.107 and you think Ramirez should be playing CF?

august fagerstrom: those are Spring Training numbers over like 20 PA and I don’t think I said Ramirez should be playing CF, I said if he were capable of playing CF he’d be the best option, but he’s probably not capable

august fagerstrom: Naquin should be the opening day CF

Zorak: As a Mets fan, I am pretty certain Ruben Tejada will break out this year as a Cardinal, get that OBP back up around .360 with decent defense.

august fagerstrom: sounds about right

Trainman: What are your thoughts with Cueto staying in a meaningless spring training game when he got drilled on a comeback pitch? If he was being evaluated for a concussion afterwards, why do you risk him further injuring himself, especially when the Giants gave Cueto a big contract in the offseason

august fagerstrom: Think it’s a terrible look

august fagerstrom: The way head injuries are treated in all sports are still just shocking to me. It’s the biggest reason I stopped watching football

august fagerstrom: The contract matters 0% in this situation. The guy just got hit in the head, which contains his brain, with a line drive. Get him medical attention immediately

Zorak: How long until Zych takes over for Cishek? If Cishek is on the DL to start the year, does he ever get the job back?

august fagerstrom: I’d imagine Benoit is second in line

august fagerstrom: I have very little confidence in Cishek, for what it’s worth. If he starts on the DL, I’d bet against him getting it back, but then again the Mariners bullpen isn’t super insipring

Matt: How many major league ABs will Josh Bell get this year?

august fagerstrom: 200?

Michigan Fan: I liked your piece on Nolan Arenado. You still think he can hit 40 HRs again?

august fagerstrom: certainly wouldn’t count on it, but as long as he’s in Coors, he’s got a shot. the plate discipline is pretty scary, but he’s got hella power and the best ballpark

Michigan Fan: From 0 to 10, what is the likelihood that we see the 2014 version of Anthony Rendon this season?

august fagerstrom: 6.5

CamdenWarehouse: Kelvin Herrera – best reliever who isn’t a closer?

august fagerstrom: Yankees have a couple guys who might debate that

august fagerstrom: Red Sox have a guy too

Zorak: Any guys in spring training catching your eye? Domingo Santana and Trevor Story are looking pretty good right now.

august fagerstrom: <3 Domingo but your opinions of any player shouldn’t have changed much from where they were 2 weeks ago

Bobby Evans: If I pay a bulk of the salary can I dump Angel Pagan on the Indians or Angels?

august fagerstrom: how much better does Angel Pagan make the Indians or Angels?

florida man: do you think starling marte is the type of player who confounds the projection systems because of his batted ball profile and contact ability? he hit for excellent power last year until he got hurt

august fagerstrom: I don’t really think he’s confounding the projection systems. Projected for 118 wRC+ and .340 BABIP with a career 121 wRC+ and .353 BABIP

The Dude of NY: Theory: Bobby Evans walks down the street, and passes by a man taking out the garbage for a pizza restaurant. Evan asks if he’s ever played baseball before, and the man responds no. Evans then drafts him in the 20th round, and two years later he’s an everyday player of the Giants. Thoughts?

august fagerstrom: isn’t this how the Braves got Evan Gattis

JDogg: Joc Pederson … is his probable ceiling a prime years Mike Cameron?

august fagerstrom: think I actually made this exact comp last year

august fagerstrom: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-try-out-some-mlb-comps-for-joc-pederson/

Baloo: Should I be worried that Justin Upton is looking like he’s never swung a bat before in ST?

august fagerstrom: nope

Justin: Is there a good place to get spring training stats? (Yes, I realize that they don’t matter.)

august fagerstrom: mlb.com has basic ones

august fagerstrom: not sure about advanced stats. for the FB% in today’s Franco piece, I just went through gameday and did it myself

Chuck: Does Wil Myers still have the ceiling to be an elite or above average player and fulfill his prospect status from a couple years ago or is he projecting now as a league average 1B?

august fagerstrom: above-average, yeah

august fagerstrom: elite, nah

Ryne: August, PLEASE you gotta help me this AM. Can you give me a comp for Luis Severino? Also, is Danny Salazar taking ANOTHER step forward? Both involved in a trade and need to make a decision.

august fagerstrom: I think Salazar can get better, yes.

august fagerstrom: Severino’s comp is a 21-year-old who throws heat and posted really good peripherals in his first time facing major league pitching last year and has plenty of upside

Michigan Fan: Will Danny Salazar ever get his home-run rate down?

august fagerstrom: He had one of the largest GB% increases in all of baseball last year. The home run rate is the very reason why I think he can take a step toward the elite next year.

Dodski85: Hi August! First things first, you are really finding ways to keep things interesting in the offseason. That Nationals fastball article was superb!

august fagerstrom: thank you!

FireDrayton: I’m panicking about McCullers. Should I be panicking about McCullers?

august fagerstrom: I wouldn’t be. The medicals reportedly came back clean, and we’ve known all along the Astros were going to be extra cautious with him. Sounds like the Astros are being extra cautious with him

Shower Thoughts: What do you make of Jimmy Paredes? Do you see him pushing Nolan Riemold off the 25-man roster?

august fagerstrom: doubtful

AugustFan1: Hi August. No question, just want to say you’re an awesome writer. Every piece you write is endlessly fascinating. Keep up the good work.

august fagerstrom: thank you! this is my favorite submission of the chat so far

Trainman: Correa over under: OPS .850, HR 30

august fagerstrom: slight over OPS/slight under HR?

CamdenWarehouse: What second year player is probably getting the most overhyped and will disappoint?

august fagerstrom: Matt Duffy?

gest: Despite the standard 65 IP projection, Depth Charts only projects David Robertson for 26 saves this year, is there a reason you can think why this is?

august fagerstrom: this is actually my fault. depth chart playing time is a little messed up. will fix ASAP, thanks for pointing it out!

Q-Ball: What is a Buckeye? A buckeye is a nut that can kill you.

august fagerstrom: and a delicious chocolatey, peanut buttery treat

Erik: Of the six “tanking” teams in the NL, which would surprise you least if they were somehow in playoff contention late in the season?

august fagerstrom: Milwaukee

Ernie Camacho: Do you have a favorite Great Lakes beer? Or are you more of a Fat Head man.

august fagerstrom: not a huge Great Lakes fan, though I do enjoy the Elliot Ness and Commodore Perry from time to time.

Mikko: Your answers do not display proper Sisu…you call yourself a Finn?

august fagerstrom: David Laurila accused me of this at the Winter Meetings, too.

august fagerstrom: Then Cameron ran him over with our car so it all evened out.

forever it: Which AL East guy is more likely to finally put it together – Gausman or Joe Kelly?

august fagerstrom: Gausman

Hawk: fyi general perception is that the 5th spot in Toronto is now Floyd’s to lose given his major league contract and good performance so far. Velo and command appear to be very much in order. Chavez to swingman, and Sanchez to the pen or perhaps AAA.

august fagerstrom: that seems suboptimal

The Hamburglar: Progressive Field is criminally underrated. Really cheap beer/food too. Loved it upon first visit.

august fagerstrom: It’s really a great stadium. A real shame so few people experience it

The Hamburglar: If Fangraphs was a mid 90’s sitcom, who would the audience go crazy for when they entered the room? I’d say Cistulli, but he’s so controversial to some.

august fagerstrom: Jeff. Cistulli would be the character that the diehard fans grew to love over time

Feed Me More: Who scares you more, Jordan Zimmerman in the American League or Jeff Smardjza pitching anywhere?

august fagerstrom: Shark

Forsyth: do you think your man bun helped land you the job with Fangraphs? I don’t think they had another guy with a man bun so they had a key role to fill.

august fagerstrom: actually Cameron ribs me for it every time he gets an opportunity

Matt: Have you ever thought about having everyone in this chat register one week earlier and give you a single page synopsis of their league? Then you could go through, research everyone’s league, and be primed for a fantasy chat. Seems reasonable.

august fagerstrom: that seems like the opposite of reasonable

2-D: When you were watching games from the press box did you keep your own score book?

august fagerstrom: yep!

august fagerstrom: love scoring games

Matt: I envision all you FG guys sitting in a room similar to NASA’s mission control during these chats. Many monitors up in order to pull up stats and such on players people question. Is this the case, or are you guys just smart people?

august fagerstrom: well I’d be lying if I said I didn’t do some Googling or FanGraphing or BP’ing during these chats

august fagerstrom: I also spend quite a bit of time thinking and reading about this kinda stuff, it being my full-time job and all

“Shazz” (ny): is cakey bryant a real player yes or no

august fagerstrom: no but Kakie is

GSon: Aug… at the IBI website, there is a forum thread asking what is your favorite Municipal Stadium baseball memory (so no browns and no “rats as big as cats settling spats” stories). I suggest Grand Stand Managers night.. What was yours?..

august fagerstrom: being 2 years old