August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 3/8/16

august fagerstrom: hey y’all! apologies for my tardiness, lost track of time cleaning my apartment. get those questions in and we’ll start shortly!

august fagerstrom: I would link to Kendrick Lamar’s “untitled 07” as today’s song/album chat soundtrack, but nothing is up on YouTube yet, so let’s go with the other record I listened to on yesterday’s bike ride, Ty Segall – Melted

august fagerstrom: But seriously, listen to that Kendrick. Dude is making the most powerful music out right now

The Dude of NY:

august fagerstrom: seems like a good place to start

The Dude of NY: WHY CARTER CAPPS? WHY?

august fagerstrom: :'(

august fagerstrom: the worst part of Spring Training

august fagerstrom: and why Capps!

august fagerstrom: he was probably in the top 10 most interesting players to watch this year. maybe higher

august fagerstrom: and so many topic possibilities out the window!

august fagerstrom: I guess that’s like the baseball writer version of worrying about your fantasy team when someone gets hurt

Proswagonist: Do you have an email address that readers can send article ideas to?

august fagerstrom: yes, it’s listed at the bottom of all my articles. august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com

Cory S.: Which fan base should just watch their AA/AAA teams instead of there MLB club?

august fagerstrom: the Phillies have a fun system and a bad team, so them, but they’d still want to tune in every 5th day for Nola

august fagerstrom: I’d say the same about the Braves/Teheran, but they already know what Teheran looks like, so they could just stick to AA/AAA until the AA/AAA guys start coming up

Bork: So the Orioles outfield consists of a relatively unknown (Kim) in LF, Jones in CF, and Trumbo in RF, with a pitching staff that isn’t exactly known for groundballs. ARE YOU EXCITED FOR ORIOLES BASEBALL??

august fagerstrom: on the other hand, their offense is going to be a ton of fun to watch and so is their infield defense

august fagerstrom: they’re not a bad team. it’s just, they don’t appear to be a particularly great team either, and the Alvarez signing changes very little I think, and makes the outfield tougher to watch

/sp/: Xander Bogaerts has put of good numbers so far, but his batted-ball profile is underwhelming. Any worries?

august fagerstrom: I’m not sure “worries” is the right word

august fagerstrom: But I kind of put him and Francisco Lindor in the same boat

august fagerstrom: Both are absolutely top-five real life shortstops in my opinion. But both I think had an offensive outlier last year that propped up their 2015 value a bit. Bogaerts isn’t repeating a .372 BABIP. Lindor isn’t repeating a .169 ISO or 128 wRC+.

august fagerstrom: With Bogaerts, you’d expect the BABIP drop to be traded for some more power, because he’s hit for less power than expected, but the big spike in GB% probably cuts into power potential a bit

august fagerstrom: Both are probably 4+ WAR shortstops. Both are probably not the hitter they were last year, for one reason or another

Nelson: Does Albert Belle (currently) get any recognition by the Indians organization or is he persona non-grata around those parts. Like has he made any official appearances since leaving the org?

august fagerstrom: No official appearances to my knowledge, at least not lately. And it’s not because the organization isn’t reaching out to him

august fagerstrom: He had no interest in doing the ’95 reunion stuff last year from what I understand

Nelson: Is TJ House healthy this year? Will he be a starter in the minors to start the year?

august fagerstrom: As far as we can tell, to the former. And yes, to the latter

august fagerstrom: I wouldn’t have super high hopes for him, though. He’d be firmly behind Mike Clevinger and Cody Anderson on my “who has the most 2016 upside” list

andy: is there any concern that the addition of Dexter Fowler may hurt Kyle Schwarber’s development this year, as he may be used primarily as a platoon player in left field?

august fagerstrom: These are always tricky scenarios, because there’s a few things to consider. a) how much do the Cubs believe Schwarber will be able to improve against lefties? They might not see much potential growth there, for whatever reason. b) how much will his newer, limited role actually stunt development in that one specific area? and probably the most important, c) does Schwarber being able to be deployed more optimally, thus making the Cubs a better team in 2016 as they’re contending for their first World Series in more than a century, outweigh the *potential* for stunted development in that one specific area?

august fagerstrom: Can’t answer any of those with any certainty, but as for the latter, I’d just be happy with Schwarber and Soler almost always having the platoon advantage and combining for an offensive powerhouse in LF and not worry about Schwarber’s ability vs. lefties

Bruce: I know Kendrick is good, everyone says he is, but I dont find his songs enjoyable. Its more like work. Give me something to bump in my jeep, Kendrick Lamars not that.

august fagerstrom: Section.80 and GKMC are that, imo

august fagerstrom: few tracks on the new record are that too. Check out untitled 07. Straight banger

august fagerstrom: As for TPAB, I understand it’s a bit more challenging of a record, but I honestly think it’s the most important hip-hop album ever made from a social standpoint and in terms of progressing the genre. He’s truly making waves right now

Bruce: Can you say that 100% of pitchers who do the jump throw get tommy John?

august fagerstrom: weren’t Walden’s injuries shoulder-related?

august fagerstrom: that’s only 50%! huge cut!

Cubs Fan: At this point, is there anything other than catastrophic injuries that can keep the Cubs out of the playoffs? I’m afraid because I don’t know what to fear going wrong.

august fagerstrom: I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a little nervous about Arrieta

august fagerstrom: He may be a “new” pitcher in terms of performance, but he’s still the same human who had major injuries to both his elbow and shoulder within the last five years, and who showed some signs of wear toward the end of his absolute workhorse season last year

august fagerstrom: not that a Lester/Lackey/Hendricks/Hammel/Warren rotation isn’t still good and couldn’t win with that offense, but that’s one injury that could change that teams outlook in a huge way

august fagerstrom: I know you said “other than catastrophic injuries”

august fagerstrom: But, no, not really. There’s too much talent on that team for simple under performance to doom them

august fagerstrom: thank you for the article idea Nelson. not publishing but have written it down and will be looking into it

2-D: Does Yandy get his PT at 2B if Giovanny mans the 3B down in CB?

august fagerstrom: Hadn’t thought about this. Yeah, I’d imagine he’d have to. They’ll want him, Urshela and Gonzalez all getting consistent at-bats. Maybe LF? But I’d imagine they’d want to keep him in the infield

DuffCalifornia: What are your thought on Mookie Betts being the aggregate 3rd highest rated OF among your colleagues??

august fagerstrom: Have no idea what this is referring to

august fagerstrom: As much as I love Mookie, that’s crazy. He may be the next McCutchen, but he’s still not Trout/Harper/McCutchen/Stanton. Could be the fifth-best OF in baseball right now though

august fagerstrom: Those 4 are in a tier of their own until prove otherwise though

Guest: If the Astros were somehow guaranteed to win the world series this year, but it meant they would have to trade Correa to the Rangers for Josh Hamiltons contract, do you think they would do it?

august fagerstrom: oh boy

august fagerstrom: this kind of reminds of when Jeff Sullivan did his Pick Your Four Years post

august fagerstrom: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/pick-your-four-years/

august fagerstrom: let’s poll Astros fans!

Jack Glasscock’s Cup: Ladies and Gentlemen, Tyler Naquin (Naquin), you’re opening day starting CF for the Cleveland Indians.

august fagerstrom: he should be.

Matt: RE: Watching farm teams instead of MLB teams… As a Braves fan I know I’m going to spend the $50 on MiLB TV instead of MLB TV this year. It’s going to be a better and more exciting product…

august fagerstrom: there ya go, Cory S!

The Average Sports Fan: Do you think Jurickson Profar is a MLB SS on 8/1? Is it for the Rangers?

august fagerstrom: he has to be a shortstop?

august fagerstrom: man, I dunno

august fagerstrom: Barring injury, I can’t see him taking over for the Rangers middle infield

august fagerstrom: I could see him being traded though, and he could be a starting SS/2B somewhere by August

august fagerstrom: Odor is a stud and benching Andrus is going to be a real difficult pill for Texas to swallow

Rick: Is this the year Gausman takes a big step? Does he still have the upside to be a future #2?

august fagerstrom: Think so. Time is running out on the upside though

Bork: Cubs are pretty much the Nationals of last years off-season, no? WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG? Everything. Everything can go wrong.

august fagerstrom: Everything can always go wrong! Nationals were wrecked with injuries, though. If this is referring to the earlier comment, the question-asker wanted me to not include injuries

august fagerstrom: Most the Nats underperformers (Werth, Span, Rendon, etc) were directly tied to injuries

Cornrow Kenny: TLOP > Untitled and Unmastered

august fagerstrom: apples and oranges

august fagerstrom: both are highly enjoyable

Josh I: Who is the biggest name moved before the season?

august fagerstrom: Desmond Jennings?

ChickenHawk: Derek Dietrich’s outlook this year? He’s got some pop, if he somehow gets 500ab’s, does he conceivably hit 20hr?

august fagerstrom: no because 500 AB’s means he’s facing a bunch of lefties

august fagerstrom: which is why he won’t get 500 AB — that, and the defense

august fagerstrom: he is a fun role player though, I’ll give you that.

Super Hans: Any chance the O’s trade Trumbo? Is there a team that would be a fit?

august fagerstrom: can’t possibly imagine they’d sign Davis, trade for Trumbo, and then sign Alvarez just so they could trade Trumbo away

august fagerstrom: would be a bad look for the FO. They’re really rolling with Trumbo or Davis in RF

august fagerstrom: Though I really have my doubts whether they want to put that added physical strain on Davis by putting him in RF in the first year of a massive seven-year dael

august fagerstrom: He’ll probably get some time out there, but that’s Trumbo’s spot

Rick: Dr August 🙂 ,Do you think Wright can actually play 130 games and be effective? Do you hear anything that’s not been reported?

august fagerstrom: Non-Indians info that I hear that’s not reported is few and far between. I know what everybody else knows, re: Wright — he’s struggled to play more than 130 games for half a decade now, and even if he’s physically able to this year, the Mets probably won’t let him

august fagerstrom: that’s a big reason why they loaded up on so much infield depth this yaer

august fagerstrom: year! why do I keep switching up my a’s and e’s!

JD: Astros fan here. NO WAY.

august fagerstrom: your peers seem to disagree!

august fagerstrom: Honestly, I think I’d take the WS. Though, there’s some non-quantifiable value in just being able to watch Correa every day for the next 6+ years, even if it doesn’t result in a World Series

Eric: How can you say that MBDTF is not Kanye’s best album? It’s probably the best hip-hop album of the past decade.

august fagerstrom: Don’t think I said this in this chat! To be fair I am partial to Late Registration personally, though MBDTF is a masterpiece and has added “importance to the artform” value that goes beyond just how much I enjoy listening to it. Late Registration is just my favorite Kanye listen

el gasino: Brett Phillips 80 laugh tool?

august fagerstrom: can’t wrap my mind around how that’s real

Ernie Camacho: Does Naquin have an actual shot of making the Tribe’s opening day roster? Given the team’s righty-heavy lineup, he seems like a good fit, especially during Brantley’s absence, and I say this without particularly high hopes for his bat.

august fagerstrom: I think so. He’s their best option for CF, and the organization shouldn’t be concerned in the slightest with service time for a 25-year-old future fourth outfielder with Zimmer and Frazier waiting in the wings

2-D: Naquin is lookin’ goood, I put an extra an o in he’s lookin’ so good. Chances he starts in center opening day?

august fagerstrom: that being said, I’d still put his Opening Day chances at like 45%

august fagerstrom: The Cleveland move would seem to be a Venable-Davis-Chisenhall OF with Cowgill and Joey Butler as platoon reserves. Maybe I’m wrong. Naquin should be in over Butler though

JD: You don’t often get a chance to watch someone who could be a generational player. We want a WS win but there’s enough confidence in Luhnow and the rest of the system that I wouldn’t trade Correa for one this year. We think we can win one in the next few years with this core.

august fagerstrom: solid counter-argument!

Mat: Going on a baseball road trip this year to see the Reds, Indians, Pirates and Tigers in early June. Been to any of these parks? Any recommendations of things to do, places to eat/drink?

august fagerstrom: PNC Park is the nicest stadium in baseball. That I’ve been to, at least, and I’ve been to like 24 stadiums

august fagerstrom: Sitting in the upper deck behind home plate at PNC gives you probably the most gorgeous view in baseball

august fagerstrom: Go to right field in Cleveland for some of the best food options you can find. Manny’s BBQ in CF at Pittsburgh recommended, too

august fagerstrom: Can’t speak as confidently to Cinci or Detroit

Murray: Everyone’s bounce back candidates are: VMart and Carlos Santana? do you think injuries and age will limit their upside this year, or, do they have one more good year left in the tank??

august fagerstrom: VMart scares me. Santana was an above-average hitter last year and I think is at least that moving forward

Marshall H.: Not a snowball’s chance in hell would I trade away Correa for a WS appearance or championship.

JD: Is it reasonable to expect McCullers to take another step forward this year? If so, what does he need to do to be a star?

august fagerstrom: Develop the change. Become more efficient with his pitches and go deeper into games, though it sounds like the organization will be watching him closely this year wrt workload. I am already a huge fan though

el gasino: When will we see the last pitch out? Even if you guess correct, the ball isn’t worth the slim improvement of throwing out the runner.

august fagerstrom: It’ll never die completely

Jack Glasscock’s Cup: If Clint Frazier makes as big a jump during the first half of 2016 as he did in 2015, will Cleveland hand over an OF spot to him before the end of the season?

august fagerstrom: Nah

august fagerstrom: Zimmer has an outside chance of cracking the bigs this year, though 2017 is probably his year

august fagerstrom: Frazier is a year behind — could crack 2017, likely not a regular until 2018

Greg: Who do you like more at 1B, Wil Myers or Brandon Belt?

august fagerstrom: Belt Belt Belt

The Other Sox: If the White Sox’s only options right now are to add Jay Bruce or Cargo, should they pass and just head into the season with what they have?

august fagerstrom: I wouldn’t expect them to do anything else

el gasino: Victorino break camp with the cubs?

august fagerstrom: Think so

Derek: So there’s a lot of Mookie love going on for this year. Can you be devils advocate and tell me some red flags?

august fagerstrom: I don’t know of any

Jason: Guy most likely to have a huge first week and then go back to mediocrity?

august fagerstrom: This is like, completely impossible to predict, right?

august fagerstrom: Is there anything that would suggest any one player has a profile more suited toward this than the rest of the league?

august fagerstrom: Just name a player. Any player. It’s that guy

pirates hurdles: For Mat, grab a burger at BRGR and PNC is adding a Southern Tier brewing kiosk, cant do much better than that on a summer evening.

august fagerstrom: boom!

Marc: Mat: While in Pittsburgh you definitely have to hit up a Primantis and get a sandwhich. You wont regret it

august fagerstrom: ooh, this too!

kevinthecomic: Mat, I’ve been to all of those parks in the past couple of years (Cin, Cle, Pit, Det). PNC definitely the nicest. In Pittsburgh, you gotta go to Primanti Bros for lunch. Cleveland has a bunch of bars right outside the stadium but you gotta go early if you’re there on a weekend. Also, do NOT park in the parking garage — takes an hour to get out of after the game. As for DET, Cheli’s Chili or Hockeytown Cafe are choice. In CIN, take the extra time to go over to Covington, KY and get some of that down home Southern cookin’. Enjoy!

Ryguy: Sat in upper deck behind home plate at PNC for Cole vs Strasburg couple years ago…doesn’t get much better…Second that recommendation.

august fagerstrom: Mat’s got his whole damn trip planned out now

The Average Sports Fan: Are the Cardinals more experienced or just old?

august fagerstrom: both?

august fagerstrom: not like there’s not youth, too — Grichuk, Piscotty, Martinez, Wacha, Wong, etc.

Tyson Bohanan: Rougned Odor was born in 1994….Future All-Star? Or is 2.5-3 wins his ceiling?

august fagerstrom: Future All-STar

august fagerstrom: I love Odor

Big Joe Montferrant: Make me a believer for a Chase Headley bounce back please..

august fagerstrom: Optimism for a Headley bounceback is the same as it is for like 90% of underperformers — last year, he played through some injuries, and the performance suffered. This year, given health, he should be closer to his career levels

august fagerstrom: Impossible to say how healthy he is, though, or whether he’ll be able to shake the bad habits necessitated by injuries, and the older one gets, the harder it is to recover from those injuries

Alan: Care to offer your take on the Peralta dilemma? Should StL run out Gyorko, Diaz, or look into the trade market?

august fagerstrom: Team Aybar makes a good deal of sense

Big Joe Montferrant: Which is Sadder, Mark Prior or Brien Taylor?

august fagerstrom: I was like 1 when Taylor was a top prospect, so I don’t have much context to work with there. Prior was really sad

Marc: Give me some hope for the pirates back half rotation of Locke/Vogs will keep the pirates in games during the first half before Glasnow and possibly Taillon arrive

august fagerstrom: Glasnow should be up ASAP

august fagerstrom: I’ve got a hard time giving you hope though. Pirates rotation beyond Cole and Liriano scares the hell out of me

Erik: I’m scared Kris Bryant will turn into Mark Reynolds. Is that an irrational fear?

august fagerstrom: very

Mr. Mister: Starling Marte’s FB% avg over the last four years is 26% (high of 29% in 2014 and low of 22% last year. Unless he changes his approach, isn’t 20-22 HRs his ceiling? No one who had 25+ Hrs last year had a FB% below 31%.

august fagerstrom: Yeah, but the power is kind of the icing on the cake for Marte.

Sean: Something interesting I thought of: with David Peralta making a huge leap last year and showing a great batted ball profile with improving plate discipline, what if he somehow turned into a better hitter than Goldy?

august fagerstrom: I wouldn’t hold your breath

august fagerstrom: Correa/WS poll is exactly 50/50!

august fagerstrom: and #TeamCorrea takes the lead!

august fagerstrom: think that’s the first time it’s been that way

Rick: Changing your Correa for WS question. As a Cub Fan, I’d trade the whole team for a minor league team if it meant a World Series Championship.

Bork: Here’s a slightly different question than the Astros one. Would Angels fans take a guaranteed WS if it cost them Trout?

august fagerstrom: oh god

Greg: Joe Ross or Steven Matz?

august fagerstrom: Matz

Alex: Do you think Matz will throw 180+ IP? I have the second pick in my draft, and assuming Stroman is gone, I’m left with Matz, Severino, and Iglesias. I have good pitching but Matz needs the IP to crack it for me. Or should I just take Anderson Espinoza and be happy I got the guy I reeeeeeaaallly wanted in dynasty?

august fagerstrom: you’ve tricked me into a fantasy question!

august fagerstrom: I doubt Matz cracks 180, given they don’t need to rely on him for innings as the team’s fourth starter

august fagerstrom: probably gonna play it safe with him

august fagerstrom: As for your fantasy dilemma, I have no idea

august fagerstrom: as is the case for all fantasy questions

Bork: How high are you on Michael Saunders? If he stays healthy that is. SSS but he’s been dingerlicious so far in ST.

august fagerstrom: thing about Saunders is, he hits righties when he plays. But then you ding him for the platoon issues, and then you ding for him the defense, and then you ding him for allllllll the injuries, and then you’re left with Michael Saunders

august fagerstrom: in a 50-game season with only right-handed pitchers, Saunders is a hell of a player

SPRING HYPE MACHINE!!: BROCK HOLT!!!!

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Gabriel: Dae-Ho Lee or Jesus Montero?

august fagerstrom: somehow, these three things seem related

august fagerstrom: good place to wrap up, I suppose

august fagerstrom: thanks for chatting everyone! be back next week, same place, same time, except probably 20 minutes earlier because I was 20 minutes late this week