August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 7/5/16
| 11:53 |
: Nearly forgot I had this! Week of vacation plus a Monday holiday has me all screwed up. Let’s start around 12:10.
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| 12:12 |
: Alright! Let’s do it
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| 12:12 |
: Hello, friend!
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| 12:12 |
: Hi, Bork!
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| 12:13 |
: I might be biased but was the Indians/Jays game the other day the worst example of the umpshow this year? Carapazza was straight up awful.
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| 12:13 |
: It was really bizarre. I’m not sure about “Ump show” — every Blue Jays player that was thrown out deserved it. But it’d be hard not to get thrown out with the calls they were dealing with
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| 12:14 |
: It seemed like he called a couple way wide in the first and then just stuck with it the rest of the game. Couldn’t remember a zone being that wide in a long time
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| 12:16 |
: Shouldn’t the Cardinals become sellers at the deadline? The division is out of reach and the consolation prize for winning one of the wild card spots is facing a Kershaw/Thor type in a one game play-in to win the right to face baseball’s best team. And it stands to reason that they could get a fairly significant haul for guys like Jaime Garcia, Brandon Moss, Jhonny Peralta, and Trevor Rosenthal (if he turns it around) etc at the deadline – no?
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| 12:16 |
: No
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| 12:16 |
: If you can get into the playoffs, you get into the playoffs
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| 12:16 |
: Danny Espinosa? Danny Espinosa! How many homers does he hit this year? 30 possible?
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| 12:16 |
: Yeah, I just noticed this earlier today.
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| 12:17 |
: Completely swapped his grounders for fly balls! Pulling the ball more. Going Daniel Murphy
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| 12:17 |
: Currently projected for 27 homers, so 30 seems totally doable if we’ve got reason to believe he’s altered his swing for more power that the projections haven’t yet picked up on, which we seem to have
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| 12:18 |
: Assuming Jose Bautista gets healthy shortly, what is his trade value if the Jays try to move him. Who would be interested?
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| 12:18 |
: Not the Blue Jays.
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| 12:18 |
: Cody Reed has been getting shelled thus far – think he turns it around this season?
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| 12:18 |
: He’s made four MLB starts
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| 12:19 |
: So the D-Backs put themselves in 2-year IFA penalty to sign just one guy, Yoan Lopez, who is clearly struggling. 3 IFA years pretty much down the drain. The D-Backs are not a well-run front office, are they?
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| 12:19 |
: Seems they’ve made more questionable moves than most lately
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| 12:19 |
: With Sanchez pitching the way he is how would you handle his startervsbullpen situation later this season?
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| 12:19 |
: Just so hard to speculate without having any idea of his medicals or how he’s feeling
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| 12:19 |
: Everyone is different
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| 12:20 |
: I don’t think anyone outside the Blue Jays FO has enough information to responsibly answer that question
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| 12:20 |
: The Rangers are apparently interested in Odorizzi. Is this not a terrible, terrible fit?
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| 12:20 |
: If the Rangers entered a seven-game series right now, they’d be giving a start to Nick Martinez
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| 12:20 |
: Any pitcher is a fine fit in Texas
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| 12:22 |
: Whats wrong with Aaron Nola?
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| 12:22 |
: Well, a .515 BABIP over his last five starts doesn’t help
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| 12:22 |
: But also, K’s have been down and BB’s have been up. Going through a rough patch of command. It happens.
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| 12:23 |
: He’s pitched worse lately, but also, in those same five starts with the 13.50 ERA, he’s got a 3.95 xFIP
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| 12:24 |
: Are there serious worries for the Cubs, or do you think the recent rough patch is just baseball?
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| 12:24 |
: Baseball
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| 12:24 |
: They’re still heads and shoulders above any other team
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| 12:24 |
: Will there be Kevin Durant-style hate directed at Harper or Trout when they leave their teams and join an established dynasty to get their ring in a few years? Or is that less of a thing in baseball?
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| 12:25 |
: Less of a thing due to the nature of roster construction and star power. Just having a Durant on your team guarantees a playoff berth. On the Warriors, it all but guarantees another finals appearance. No baseball player can do that. The Angels are going to miss the playoffs entirely for the fifth time in six Trout seasons
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| 12:25 |
: No one baseball player can ever mean as much to an MLB team as Durant means to an NBA team
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| 12:25 |
: With KD signing with the warriors, how ironic is that Lebron is now the underdog savior that all non-warrior fans (GO SEAHAWKS RIGHT??) will cheer for?
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| 12:25 |
: It’s bizarre
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| 12:26 |
: Juan Nicasio threw an immaculate inning and has been pretty great since being removed from the rotation. Why is reliever Nicasio so much better than starter Nicasio?
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| 12:26 |
: Any pitcher will be better in the bullpen than in the rotation
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| 12:27 |
: August, help me out here. My cousin and I have been in a heated argument for a month now about Tim Anderson. My cousin, an extremely emotional and irrational fan, says this guy is the real deal and will continue his hitting and continue to get better. “20/20 kind of guy”. He also boasts about how better the White Sox offense is. But if you or I replaced Rollins or Saladino, the offense would have improved. Myself on the other hand, look at his brutal BB/K ratio and super inflated BABIP. I realize he should always have a high BABIP due to his speed, but he is going to digress, correct? I believe pitchers will figure him out relatively soon. Thoughts on Anderson?
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| 12:27 |
: Well, it should be a given that 30.8 K% and 0.9 BB% don’t last in the majors
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| 12:28 |
: That being said, Anderson’s got the perfect high BABIP profile, always posted extremely high BABIPs in the minors, so it’s not unreasonable to think he could be a .360 BABIP type guy.
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| 12:28 |
: He’s also still quite young in baseball years, being a late starter
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| 12:29 |
: I don’t think what he’s done thus far is a total fluke, but the plate discipline definitely needs to improve somewhat for long term success
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| 12:29 |
: If he could walk just like 5% of the time and keep the strikeouts closer to 25%, I think he could be a league average hitter
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| 12:30 |
: The Starling Marte profile with less power
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| 12:30 |
: Hi! How’d you feel about Tito using Bauer vs the Blue Jays in extras? Seemed a little silly to me and maybe he was worried too much about the streak. But then if he doesn’t do that maybe they lose 3 of 4 instead of splitting.
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| 12:30 |
: I think you always manage to win the game in front of you. Worry about the rest next
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| 12:30 |
: You don’t throw up any white flags during a pennant race
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| 12:30 |
: I think we need a prayer circle for all the 4th of July hangovers in this chat… Work is brutal today
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| 12:31 |
: I did the four days in New York with FG, four days in a cabin with all my best friends, then July 4 back in my hometown. My body is completely destroyed. Right there with you
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| 12:31 |
: Not to mention Cavs parade day
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| 12:31 |
: Haven’t drank like this since college. Which, admittedly, was like 3 years ago
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| 12:32 |
: Are you confident that Texas wins the west? Why or why not?
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| 12:32 |
: I suppose so, just given their lead
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| 12:32 |
: Am definitely not confident that they’re the best team in the division, though
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| 12:32 |
: Is the Cubs carrying three catchers but using one predominantly in the outfield (first Schwarber, now Contreras) just one in a long list of Maddon innovations which may one day become mainstream, or just a reaction to specific circumstances?
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| 12:32 |
: I think it’s a specific thing. They’ve got stars that play every day, and guys like Javy Baez and Zobrist give them more flexibility on the bench
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| 12:33 |
: AKA the ability to carry three catchers and still be able to cover the rest of the spots on the field
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| 12:33 |
: Pineda Paxton Descfani
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| 12:33 |
: These are almost three names of major league pitchers.
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| 12:33 |
: Jose Reyes is returning to the Mets today. Instead of the normal questions or commentary, I will remind everyone that some of his teammates on the Mets include Roberto Alomar, Mo Vaughn, Jay Bell, Al Lieter, Tom Glavine, John Franco, and David Cone.
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| 12:34 |
: Always a fan of old baseball player names.
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| 12:34 |
: Indians…wow. What do you think they need to add at the deadline to round out the club?
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| 12:34 |
: Jonathan Lucroy or Aroldis Chapman
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| 12:35 |
: Or a lesser catcher or lesser reliever
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| 12:35 |
: Those are the two areas of need
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| 12:35 |
: With the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Astros, Tigers, Royals, Mariners all in deep contention for a Wild Card spot how realistic do you think the White Sox chance of stealing it is? I see their odds are about 16 % right now, would you go higher or lower than that?
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| 12:35 |
: I typically find little reason to deviate from the odds by a significant margin
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| 12:36 |
: Of all the division leaders, what club do you think has the biggest gaping hole to fill before the deadline?
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| 12:36 |
: The Rangers and Orioles need pitching
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| 12:36 |
: I wouldn’t endorse it long-term, but I loved the Maddon OF-Pitcher switch thing last week. You?
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| 12:36 |
: I’ve been pretty out of the loop the last couple weeks to be honest, so I don’t know the exact circumstances, but I’m always a fan of wacky Joe Maddon behavior.
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| 12:37 |
: Do the Orioles stay in the race in the East and who do you have taking the division?
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| 12:37 |
: They’ll stay in the race, yeah, but I’d still put my money on the Red Sox taking the division with the Blue Jays and Astros making the Wild Card race interesting
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| 12:38 |
: “If you can get into the playoffs, you get into the playoffs.” Interesting response. Do teams make moves to maximize immediate playoff chances? Sustained playoff runs over multiple seasons? Immediate World Series chances? All are slightly different and would lead to different actions, I would assume.
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| 12:38 |
: Hard to say, but I’d place the most importance on simply getting in
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| 12:39 |
: Could just be recency bias of these recent Royals/Giants/Mets teams
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| 12:39 |
: Corey Seager has 5.3 WAR in his first 111 games.
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| 12:39 |
: He’s a star.
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| 12:40 |
: Who would be your starting AL 3b in all-star game, Donaldson or Machado?
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| 12:40 |
: Both? With Machado at SS?
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| 12:41 |
: How good would a player have to be to be equivalent to the power of superstars in the NBA?
Would it be a pitcher with 32 CGSO and a homer every game (guaranteeing 32 victories)? |
| 12:41 |
: Sullivan had some fun with this a couple years ago: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-imagine-a-baseball-playing-lebron-james/
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| 12:41 |
: Do you believe the Yankees and Braves when they say thay wont trade Teheran and Miller respectively?
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| 12:42 |
: Nope
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| 12:42 |
: Just to follow up on your Tim Anderson assessment, you see his ceiling as a 3-4 WAR player? Nothing more? A Starling Marte comp is pretty impressive.
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| 12:42 |
: Just said he had Marte’s offensive approach, and with less power
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| 12:42 |
: Definitely not comping him to Marte
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| 12:43 |
: Rather, that he needed to *get to* Marte’s approach for sustainable success.
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| 12:43 |
: SUCK IT USA OUR DAY WAS FRIDAY. I FEEL FIND TODAY. ENJOY YOUR HANGOVERS
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| 12:43 |
: bork 🙁
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| 12:43 |
: So should the Mets’ owners just outright ban Sandy Alderson from signing veteran bench OFs to major league contracts? Chris Young, John Mayberry Jr, now De Aza, all terrible, all signed to multimillion dollar deals, all released in July. What gives?
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| 12:43 |
: all essentially inconsequential moves
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| 12:43 |
: If a team is down by ten runs in the second, rather than burning out the bullpen are they allowed to just forfeit. What if they just subbed out too many players and couldn’t field a full team
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| 12:44 |
: I was at Firestone Country Club over the weekend for the Bridgestone Invitational with a couple golf buddies who aren’t real in to baseball that were insistent that teams should be able to do this
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| 12:44 |
: Indians were down 13-0 in the sixth and just put Chris Gimenez in to pitch. They said they should just be able to forfeit. 162 games is a long season
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| 12:45 |
: oh my god the Royals just called up a guy named BROOKS POUNDERS
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| 12:45 |
: Without looking, can you name the player with the highest WAR total, with a wRC+ less than 100?
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| 12:45 |
: probably not, no
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| 12:45 |
: Kevin Pillar?
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| 12:45 |
: Gonna guess Kevin Pillar.
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| 12:46 |
: It’s Kevin Pillar!
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| 12:46 |
: Do you think Dilson Hererra could outplay Reyes right now?
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| 12:46 |
: Yes
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| 12:48 |
: The pirates have the two worst qualified starters in the NL by fWAR (Niese, Liriano) and a third who is 6th worst (Locke). They have a winning record. How?
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| 12:48 |
: why, good position players, of course
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| 12:48 |
: sixth in WAR there
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| 12:49 |
: also outperformed their baseruns by a few games
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| 12:50 |
: Got an opinion on grime? Personally I love the beats and the fact that there’s constant beefs and drama
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| 12:50 |
: I looove Dizzee Rascal’s Boy in the Corner
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| 12:50 |
: Been listening to Skepta’s track Shutdown a lot lately
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| 12:50 |
: It’s a genre I should really explore more but haven’t
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| 12:51 |
: Will we ever see managers move an awful corner OF between RF/LF based on hitter handedness? Kendrys Morales for example could have played RF with Matt Holliday hitting and then switched to LF when Brandon Moss came up. Seems like a next step after shifts but also runs the risk of embarrassing a player.
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| 12:51 |
: Eno and Sam Fuld on this! http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/switching-corner-outfielders-in-games-090814
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| 12:51 |
: Do you think the White Sox will just keep treading water year after year or do you think there is some hope they will do a rebuild, trading off some assets to replenish?
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| 12:51 |
: Probably time to rebuild.
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| 12:52 |
: Now that Trevor May is back, how long do you think it will take until he claims the closer role?
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| 12:52 |
: He’s the best arm in that pen. Shouldn’t be long
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| 12:52 |
: Do you think we see Jose Berrios back in a Twins uniform immediately after the AS Break?
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| 12:52 |
: He’s the best arm in their system. Shouldn’t be long.
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| 12:53 |
: Thank you for the clarification! Really enjoy your prospect chats.
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| 12:54 |
: Eric Longenhagen does the prospect chats, not me! But you’re welcome
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| 12:54 |
: MATT. DAMON.
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| 12:54 |
: !
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| 12:54 |
: Don’t be sad August. Instead of a hangover I got told I’m going to be a father.
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| 12:54 |
: Congrats, Bork!
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| 12:54 |
: Unless you didn’t want to be a father.
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| 12:54 |
: Also second Bork in here now apparently. NEED MORE BORKS.
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| 12:54 |
: BorkBorkBorkBorkBorkBorkBorkBorkBorkBorkBorkBork
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| 12:54 |
: You’re all the father
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| 12:55 |
: When you look at the stats for AVG (or wOBA, OPS, wRC+, etc) against a certain pitch, or pitches in a certain location, or whatever, how is that calculated? Is it just BIP and Ks? If a guy sees two set-up fastballs that he swings and misses on, and then freezes on a well-located backdoor slider, it seems weird that this only counts for the slider, not for the FB
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| 12:55 |
: Don’t typically look at those
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| 12:55 |
: Are playoff stats included in career stats? It seems like they usually aren’t, but that seems silly to me.
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| 12:55 |
: They aren’t
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| 12:55 |
: Should Jeter really get all that extra WAR because he played on a dynasty for two decades?
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| 12:56 |
: Without immediately checking the stats first, would you say that Napoli has been having a decent year so far ?
OK, now looking at the numbers, I get it, career high k%, career low bb%, bad defense…but I was surprised to see FG only having him at 0.3 WAR this far into the season. Guess I’m getting thrown off by all the moonshots. |
| 12:57 |
: Yeah, it’s funny how much praise he’s gotten for being a barely average hitter without any defensive or baserunning value
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| 12:57 |
: He’s right-handed, has a beard, and when he hits homers, they go far
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| 12:57 |
: That goes a long way in getting fans to like you.
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| 12:57 |
: Think we actually see Brantley shortly after the break?
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| 12:58 |
: Seems doable. His performance will be another question
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| 12:58 |
: Thoughts on Zunino? Seems like he’s made real changes in his swing and plate discipline, still just 25.
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| 12:59 |
: Tough to tell yet at the plate, but his floor will always remain high due to his framing
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| 12:59 |
: BP calculates framing across all levels, and Zunino’s ranked as the most valuable framer in organized pro baseball all year
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| 12:59 |
: Votto with a 174 wRC+ since May 27th. He had a 172 wRC+ for all of 2015. Are April and May more an outlier? At this point, should we just say “bad months happen” and assume Votto is still a really, really good hitter?
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| 12:59 |
: Should’ve been doing that all along
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| 12:59 |
: I see the Reds fired the pitching coach. That should turn things around, right?
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| 12:59 |
: Yep!
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| 12:59 |
: Definitely doesn’t have to do with the bullpen being completely void of talent
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| 12:59 |
: And the rotation being completely void of healthy arms
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| 1:00 |
: My kingdom to whoever can figure out the longest HR ever hit on a ball where the pitcher does the finger-up-in-air routine-fly-ball move.
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| 1:00 |
: This sounds like a really good Sam Miller article
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| 1:00 |
: What is wrong with Jason Heyward?
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| 1:00 |
: He’s not hitting for any power
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| 1:01 |
: That being said, still projected to finish as a 3 WAR player!
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| 1:01 |
: Massarotti thinks Kris Bryant is overrated. I think Kris Bryant is the early NL MVP among position players. Where do you land?
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| 1:01 |
: Who is Massarrotti?
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| 1:01 |
: I don’t know how highly he’s being rated, but Kris Bryant is one of the very best players in baseball
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| 1:03 |
: Alrighty, that’ll be it for this week! Actually dried up the queue for once. People must be slow to recover from July 4
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| 1:03 |
: Have a good week everyone! Same time same place next Tuesday
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August used to cover the Indians for MLB and ohio.com, but now he's here and thinks writing these in the third person is weird. So you can reach me on Twitter @AugustFG_ or e-mail at august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com.