The trio today involves Jim Thome, Russell Branyan, and Carlos Delgado.

Here’s a fun fact about Branyan: 51% of his career plate appearances have ended in either a homer, walk, or strike out. By comparison, Adam Dunn sits at 49% and Carlos Pena at 45%.

Rocco Baldelli was barely acclimated to the professional baseball scene when the name Joe DiMaggio began popping up as a comparison. The relationship had to do more with the etymology of Rocco’s surname than the physical and positional similarities. Seven seasons in the Majors later, Baldelli is anything but a replica of the Yankee Clipper. Cursed with a cellular disorder, Baldelli’s lack of playing and production of late is blameless except for the cruel randomness that subjected an athlete to the one scenario in which he feels the most helpless. His body won’t comply with the grind and lacks the stamina necessary to partake in the role he was destined to play.

Over the last three seasons, Baldelli has recorded 150, 90, and 164 plate appearances. Plate appearances are always a tricky thing to project, so don’t take this as a shot at CHONE or Marcel when I write that their 364 and 291 PA projections can be labeled as “optimistic.” When he does play, Baldelli is an average-to-slightly-above hitter (CHONE and Marcel average out to a .330 wOBA) and fielder. A healthy Baldelli is as nearing the point of paradox. There is a slim possibility that a team can sign and milk Baldelli out of 250-300 productive trips to the plate, but the same can be said of Mark Prior.

Pittsburgh signed Ryan Church, who is somewhat comparable in the sense that he gets injured a lot and plays the corner outfield. Church’s deal was worth $1.5M guaranteed, with incentives that would push the value close to $3M. Church is considered a risk because he’s averaged 339 at-bats the past two seasons; by comparison, Baldelli has367 at-bats since the 2007 season.

Some team is going to take a shot on Baldelli for a similar deal – probably one with a decent insurance policy waiting a level away (much like the Rays and Red Sox of the last two years). The rumor de jour involves Baldelli heading to the Yankees. He is being paid to play baseball and through his profession gets access to some fantastic medical care. Still, you have to admire the guy’s perseverance, and one has to hope, for his sake, that one day he does collect a full season’s worth of plate appearances.

The one residual effect from Moneyball that I admire the most about Billy Beane is how significant he remains in baseball pop culture. Anytime he makes a signing, trade, or draft selection, everyone – even his grandmother – takes two looks at the transaction. That notion is in overdrive with his latest move.

As recently as 24 hours ago, the Athletics’ third base depth chart featured: the always-injured Eric Chavez; the more-than-svelte Tommy Everidge (now Mariners’ property); and not-really-a-third-baseman-at-all Jake Fox. Tonight the order looks a bit different as the A’s acquired Kevin Kouzmanoff and Eric Sogard from the Padres for Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham.

Let’s get the obvious out of the way: Kouzmanoff is everything that the Moneyball caricature of Beane disliked. He rarely walks (4.9% career) and expands his strike zone often. A raw offensive line of .261/.308/.435 causes him to appear as a below average batter, although our park adjustments have him in the black over the last three seasons combined. Kouzmanoff’s offensive game is more pop-based than a 13-year-old’s diet. The park he’s moving from isn’t much friendlier than the one he’s frantically fleeing and he’s moving to the American League. Don’t expect too much of an upswing. Kouzmanoff’s value comes from his position and ability to defend the position better than the average. Give him credit for consistent WAR values, if nothing else, as he’s been worth 2.7 or 2.8 WAR for each of the past three seasons. He’ll probably be worth 2.5-3 wins next year as well and has three seasons of team control remaining.

Sogard, on the other hand, walks like crazy. He turns 24 in May and plays second base while batting lefty. In 2008 he walked in nearly 13% of the time in High-A and 11% in 2009 at Double-A. He’s not a power hitter and Marc Hulet pegged him as the left-handed part of a platoon or future utility player.

In exchange, the Athletics give up two seasons of Hairston and six of Cunningham. Both are right-handed outfielders with Hairston holding the ability to play a Major League quality center right away. Hairston was acquired from the Padres just last July and his run with Oakland can’t be described much kinder than “awful”. Hairston held a .279 wOBA in 248 plate appearances with the A’s, which was probably in the 1% percentile of unlikely results given his .390 wOBA in 216 plate trips with San Diego.

The A’s have a loaded outfield already: Coco Crisp, Ryan Sweeney, Rajai Davis, and Travis Buck. Clearly they have the means to go with a three-centerfielder outfield already, and Hairston was not going to DH with Jack Cust returning. This leads to Cunningham. His status as the most desirable outfield prospect within the system was in danger with Michael Taylor sitting near. Cunningham turns 24 years old in just three months and he has nothing to prove at the Triple-A level anymore (an .899 OPS through nearly 460 plate appearances).

Acquired in the Dan Haren trade, Cunningham was blocked by Matt Holiday last year and seemingly lacked opportunity to break into the Athletics’ lineup this season as well. It’s silly to say that Beane sold high on Cunningham. Instead, it seems he sold before Cunningham lost too much of his previous luster. Whether the A’s simply held low evaluations of Cunningham nowadays or he was lost in a numbers game is a mystery.

This move improves the Athletics in 2010, but not enough to make a serious push for the division. Kouzmanoff for Hairston is fine, it’s the other two pieces that I’m unsure of. Unless I’m missing something or too optimistic on Cunningham, I think the edge has to go to San Diego here.

Jose Valverde’s nearly blasphemous contract with Detroit likely developed too lately to help Octavio Dotel out. The 36-year-old was reportedly nearing an agreement with the Pittsburgh Pirates yesterday afternoon in what should be a relatively low-cost maneuver assuming Neal Huntington is as smart as he appears to be.

Dotel last closed games on a routine basis with the Royals in 2007, spending time with the Braves and White Sox, both endowed with solid end-gamers themselves. Given that the Pirates non-tendered their closer, Matt Capps, earlier in the off-season, it would seem that Dotel will become their designated harbinger of finality, a job which could endear him to some team in need of pen help come July.

No matter the role, Dotel is an asset to any bullpen. Over the past three seasons Dotel has posted xFIP of 4.13, 3.38, and 3.73 while pitching mostly in the American League. Dotel’s fastball no longer zips across the plate at speeds routinely above 95 miles per hour, but he still misses enough wood while catching bats late enough to turn into harmless fouls to be a useful pitch. His contact rates have steadily been below 75% since 2007 and a move to the N.L. should help.

This is still the Pirates, though, which suggests there is a chance this deal could be the illegitimate cousin of Brandon Lyon’s ill-forsaken contract. Maybe it’s a leap of faith, but while he may save games for them, I doubt the Pirates have any illusions as to how much he is worth to their team. In five months’ time the clubhouse attendant won’t find the receipt of Dotel’s fake halo in Huntington’s trash can. Their concern right now is not about making the playoffs, but instead building a brand through player identity and by showing signs of competitiveness.

Dotel is not a bevel without a flaw, as he’s allowed at least one home run per nine in every season since 2004 and 23 total the past three seasons. PNC Park is tough on righties which will aid Doc Oct since 13 of those blasts were hit by right-handers (despite otherwise solid platoon splits). The majority of Dotel’s balls in play are put into the air – which explains the homer bug and also makes for some dramatic plays at the warning track.

I now fully expect Dotel to be paid equal to Rafael Soriano only to post a 6.50 ERA so everyone can resume mocking the Pirates.

Let’s wrap this series up, shall we?

Starting Pitchers (Min IP: 100)

The Best:
Rich Harden 67.3%
Javier Vazquez 73.3%
Jonathan Sanchez 73.7%
Francisco Liriano 74.1%
Jorge de la Rosa 74.7%

There’s only a handful of starting pitchers in baseball where you can point to a 74% contact rate and say, “Man, he’s just not what he used to be.” Liriano is one of those. Many still recall 2005 (63.8% contact) or 2006 (65.4%), when Liriano’s fastball scorched by hitters with his slider carelessly generating empty swings. During those years Liriano posted xFIP of 1.98 (!) and 2.35 and gave the Twins a pair of ace lefties. Over the last two, he’s looked like an average starter, which still holds value, just not quite the value his name and stuff once held.

The Worst:
John Lannan 88.6%
Nick Blackburn 87.9%
Joel Pineiro/Livan Hernandez 87.7%
Aaron Laffey 87.6%

Blackburn really is Carlos Silva part two. Through his first three seasons, Blackburn has completed two outs over 410 innings while walking 1.8 per nine and striking out 4.4 per nine (with a 4.14 ERA). Silva had 374 innings with per-nine ratios of 2.3 walks and 4 strikeouts, as well as a 4.04 ERA. I’m telling you, if I were Blackburn’s agent I would do everything in my power to have Bill Bavasi signing off on personnel moves with some team come my client’s free agency period.

Relief Pitchers (Min IP: 40)

The Best:
Mike Wuertz 58.9%
Luke Gregerson 66.2%
Mark DiFelice 67.1%
Brad Lidge/J.P. Howell 68.1%

This isn’t the first time Wuertz name appears on under the best label. He had a rough season in 2008 – okay, not that rough; a 4.35 xFIP and 4.30 FIP certainly don’t justify dumping someone with a track record of success – but it’s easy to see why Billy Beane dealt for him once the opportunity presented itself.

The Worst:
Sean White 86.7%
Clay Condrey 86.6%
Chris Jakubauskas 85.8%
Bobby Keppel/Jeff Bennett 85.4%

With the exception of White, each of these pitchers has changed teams at least once over the past calendar year. Probably not a coincidence.

Starting Pitchers (Min IP: 100)

The Best:
Rich Harden 69.6%
CC Sabathia 72%
Edinson Volquez 73.7%
Tim Lincecum 73.9%
Ryan Dempster 74.7%

Wonder why folks are so gung-ho on an oft-injured starter like Harden? Because of this, and because of what he did in 2009. The guy may not be able to stay healthy for full seasons at a time, but he can miss bats, and on the off-chance he does stick around for 30-35 starts, he figures to be a pretty nice asset.

The Worst:
Livan Hernandez 91.3%
Sidney Ponson/Kyle Kendrick 89.9%
Carlos Silva 89.2%
Aaron Cook 88.8%

It is with great regret that I remind everyone how Silva fell well shy of the 100 innings plateau in 2009. That means this is his final mention throughout the series. Go solemnly into the night, sweet prince.

Relief Pitchers (Min IP: 40)

The Best:
Brad Lidge 63.6%
Juan Cruz 66%
Ramon Ramirez 68.7%
Francisco Rodriguez 69.3%
Robinson Tejeda 69.5%

Give the Royals credit for something: over the last two years they’ve held three of the least hittable relievers in baseball during the 2008 season. Cruz hasn’t worked out, Ramirez was traded for Coco Crisp, but Tejeda stepped up. Now back to thrashing the Royals on every move, as is noted in the Creed of Sabermetrics.

The Worst:
Todd Jones 89.7%
Chad Bradford 88.6%
Eddie Guardado 87%
Jim Johnson 86.7%
Luis Ayala 86.5%

Bradford made a career out of generating weak contact, yet 88.6% was on the extreme side, even for him. His career contact rate remains 83.1% despite falling off a wagon in 2009 and having a few uncharacteristic seasons near the presumable end of his career. It’s too bad, that delivery is one that needs to be viewed for generations to come.

Starting Pitchers (Min IP: 100)

The Best:
John Smoltz 72.4%
Johan Santana 73.2%
Cole Hamels 73.9%
Scott Kazmir 74.5%
Erik Bedard 75.3%

Bedard was pretty good in 2007, completing a wee bit over 180 innings with a FIP of 3.19. Even more impressive is that his xFIP was even lower at 3.00. Of course this degree of awesomeness was uncharacteristic, even for a good pitcher, and a pair of disappointing – due to injury more so than performance – seasons in Seattle have caused some to forget that Bedard was one of the better American League hurlers late into the last decade.

The Worst:
Mike Bacsik 89.2%
Woody Williams 88.6%
Carlos Silva 88.2%
Chris Sampson/Aaron Cook 88%

You’ll never guess who finishes fourth in 2008. Not ever.

Relief Pitchers (Min IP: 40)

The Best:
Brad Lidge 62.8%
Francisco Cordero 64.5%
Mike Wuertz 65.8%
Francisco Rodriguez 66.1%
Justin Miller 66.3%

Miller is probably best-known – is he even known? – for the amount of ink on his arms, which reaches the overkill threshold. Because of the tats, MLB required him to wear sleeves at all times so as not to distract the hitters. During 2007, his pitches did that on their own. Miller has never cooked with gas, but his slider held a run value per-100 of 2.15 and unlike the other time he topped that number (2002), this time his fastball wasn’t being obliterated left and right.

The Worst:
Aaron Sele 89.8%
Jay Marshall 88.8%
Todd Jones 88.2%
LaTroy Hawkins 87.5%
Mike Myers 86.8%

I’m not sure there’s anything mildly compelling about any of these five guys. Three are retired, one just signed a decent free agent deal with Milwaukee, and the other is the Mets’ newest bullpen piece. There’s a joke about Ed Wade being interested in Todd Jones somewhere in there, but I won’t make it.

Starting Pitchers (Min IP: 100)

The Best:
Cole Hamels 72.3%
Scott Kazmir 73.9%
Johan Santana 74.8%
Aaron Harang 75%
Jeremy Bonderman/Jake Peavy 75.2%

Santana has appeared on the last few lists and while there’s not much to say about him that most don’t already know, it is worthwhile to acknowledge his relevance and greatness. Since 2002, Johan’s career high contact% against is 78.4% — which coincidentally came in 2009 – the lowest league average in that same frame has been 78.5% and that came in 2002. That is to say that Johan has always been better than average at missing bats. Most of the credit goes to Johan’s outstanding change-up, although don’t forget, he could still dial up a decent fastball.

The Worst:
Carlos Silva 90.2%
Scott Elarton 87.9%
Paul Byrd 87.5%
Jason Marquis 87.5%
Aaron Cook 87.4%

I’ve pondered labeling Silva as the new Kirk Rueter – one who finds himself amongst the leaders in contact against annually. Elarton is more interesting. I don’t know how he stuck around for 170 career starts. From 2002 onward, Elarton threw 559 innings, which is more than half of his career total. During that span he holds a tRA of 6.79 and xFIP of 5.45. It wasn’t with one team either, as he spent time with Colorado, Cleveland, and Kansas City. Good on his agent for being a smooth-talker.

Relief Pitchers (Min IP: 40)

The Best:
Mike Wuertz 64%
Brad Lidge 64%
Fernando Cabrera 66.6%
Dennys Reyes 67.2%
Francisco Rodriguez 68.2%

These were the times where Cabrera was outstanding at striking batters out (10.53 per nine) as well as putting them on (4.75 per nine) and letting them jog (1.78 per nine) and it all resulted in a 5.01 FIP. He followed this up with an even worse season and in the process was released from Cleveland. His last few seasons have come with the Orioles and Red Sox, where he’s spent the majority of his time in Triple-A.

The Worst:
Willie Eyre 88.4%
Brian Meadows 88.3%
Rick Bauer 88.1%
Todd Jones 87.9%
Dan Kolb 87.6%

I feel fortunate to have experienced 80% of Meadows’ career saves during 2006. Here’s how you know save percentage doesn’t work as a statistic representative of performance: Meadows converted on 80% of his attempts yet had a 5.40 FIP. Oh, he wasn’t just bad through FIP; he was horrible through ERA too, with a 5.17 ERA. During one outing, Meadows threw 2.1 innings with six batters reaching base (five via hit) and striking out only one. Somehow nobody scored and somehow he was credited with a save.

Starting Pitchers (Min IP: 100)

The Best:
Jake Peavy 73.7%
Johan Santana 74.2%
Jason Schmidt 74.5%
Rich Harden 74.8%
A.J. Burnett 75.5%

Schmidt’s career arc is one of the oddest in recent baseball history. After toiling for years with the Pirates as a decent starter, Schmidt was traded to the Giants (alongside John Vander Wal) for Armando Rios and Ryan Vogelsong. It’s just as the Pirates luck: Schmidt would immediately turn into a well above average starter, posting xFIP of 3.57, 3.24, and 3.21 over 2002-04. Injuries would slow Schmidt down beginning in 2007 and he would throw fewer than 15 innings on average over the past three years.

The Worst:
Carlos Silva 91.1%
Kirk Saarloos 89.7%
Ryan Drese 89.3%
Shawn Estes 89.1%
Aaron Sele 88.9%

Saarloos has started nearly 75 games in the Majors and appeared in an additional 90 as a reliever. Even still, his career HR/FB% is 13% despite throwing most of his 509 innings within the snuggly confines of the Oakland Coliseum. Truth be told, his career 4.87 FIP isn’t too bad all things considered. Baseball-Reference’s most similar pitcher is Gary Glover. I’d say that fits.

Relief Pitchers (Min IP: 40)

The Best:
Rudy Seanez 58.7%
Brad Lidge 59.6%
Mike Wuertz 59.9%
Joe Nathan 66.7%
Ugueth Urbina 67.2%

Over his career, Seanez appeared in the Majors with nine different teams. His career contact rate was just shy of 70% and he did it mostly with a ferocious slider. Nearly one-third of the pitches Seanez threw outside of the strike zone were swung at during 2005.

The Worst:
Paul Quantrill 91.2%
Jesse Crain 88.3%
Dan Kolb 87.8%
Travis Harper 87.7%
Jason Christiansen 87.5%

Mostly names previously covered. Crain has impressively improved the amount of swings and misses he induces ever since.

Today’s targets are three questionable Dayton Moore acquisitions: Scott Podsednik, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Kyle Farnsworth.

Otherwise known as The Trio That Drives Matt Klaassen Nuts.