Author Archive: Ben Clemens

I’ve written a lot of playoff series previews over the years. You can go about them in a number of ways. Highlight some key players from each team, perhaps, or touch on one particularly interesting matchup. If you’re feeling frisky, series previews can tell a narrative story, or even get experimental and weird. But one thing I don’t think I’ve ever tried before is looking at the series through the lens of failure.

That sounds negative, defeatist, not in keeping with the kind of escapism we come to baseball for. But that’s only if you don’t think about it too long – because one team’s failure is another team’s success. If the Padres get eliminated, the Brewers don’t, and vice versa. It’s a zero-sum game. So let’s figure out how things could go wrong for the San Diego Padres and the Milwaukee Brewers, and use that to shine a light on what each team will be trying to do to the other as they square off in the NLDS.

How the Brewers Might Fail
Milwaukee has the best starter in baseball in Jacob Misiorowski, and by virtue of earning a first-round bye, they’ll deploy him on full rest to open the series. That means he’ll also be available to pitch on five days’ rest in a potential Game 5. It’s a huge advantage right from the jump; Milwaukee’s ace is better than San Diego’s ace, Michael King, and King won’t appear until Game 2 of this series.

But when a single starter is a major reason for one team’s advantage, failure is always just around the corner. Misiorowski gets my vote for the best pitcher in baseball right now, and he’s going to win the NL Cy Young in a landslide. But even as he cruised to a 1.80 ERA, he was hardly perfect. He got tagged for five runs twice this year, and for three runs five more times. Read the rest of this entry »

On September 6 and then again on September 12, Tyler Mahle squared off with the Phillies. Both times, he left them frustrated and flailing; he allowed three runs across 13 innings in two Atlanta victories. In each of those games, Mahle leaned on his splitter quite a bit, something he’s done more frequently since joining the Braves at the trade deadline. That set up an interesting mind game in Wednesday’s Game 2. Seeing the same opponent for the third time in a month, would Mahle change his ways? Would the Phillies change their own approach? And could they overcome the Braves, who had been their nemeses throughout the year, and prolong their season for another day with their Kryptonite on the mound?

Mahle’s splitter was devastating last outing, so clearly the Phillies would have to sit on it. But wait! Mahle knows that the Phillies know that they won’t beat his splitter unless they key on it. So clearly, he should throw them fewer splitters. But wait! The Phillies know that Mahle knows that they will probably be sitting on the splitter. So clearly, they can’t look for splitters. But wait! Mahle knows that the Phillies know that… Well, you get the idea. There are levels to this, to paraphrase Kendrick Lamar.

Or maybe not. The Phillies either went too many levels up, or they didn’t even get into the endless iocaine powder reasoning loop I just described. Because Mahle came out leaning on his splitter, just as you’d expect, and the Phillies came out with absolutely no solutions. As Arthur C. Clarke said, any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. And to Philadelphia, Mahle’s splitter might as well have been Power Word: Whiff. They surely knew it was coming – it just didn’t matter. Read the rest of this entry »

Sometimes you have to go with a bullpen game. It isn’t exciting, but it’s just the reality of modern baseball. With the White Sox and Astros each battling right to the end of the season for their respective division titles, it set up a Game 1 matchup of poorly-rested pitching staffs without full, conventional rotations. Both managers looked at the starters they had available on full rest (nobody), looked at the starters they’d already used on short rest in the last week (plenty), and each settled on a bullpen game. And that’s how we ended up with a lengthy, disjointed contest where the outcome felt decided in the first hour.

Will Venable and the White Sox pitching staff put their best foot forward to open Game 1. Hagen Smith might get a playoffs-opening start as a full-time starter before his career is over; the fifth overall pick in the 2024 draft, he ripped through the minors and looked amazing in a multi-inning relief role down the stretch. When people talk about playoff pitching as nine innings of closer-level stuff, they’re imagining guys like Smith handling short stints. He came out fully gassed up, throwing a tick and a half faster than he had all season and ripping off electric sliders at the drop of a hat. He max-efforted his way through three innings of work. Perhaps most impressive, he went after Yordan Alvarez both times he faced him, including with a runner in scoring position, and won both confrontations. Read the rest of this entry »

No one will be happier than the Houston Astros when the second game of their Wild Card Series starts. See, during the first game, they won’t have a playoff win-loss record, so the fact that they went 81-81 this year, the worst record ever to win a division title, will come up early and often. That’s such a striking fact that we’ll no doubt continue to hear about it throughout the playoffs, but in their first game, it’s going to be one of the main topics of conversation. Houston would love nothing more than to leave behind that pedestrian regular season and get back to what the team normally does in October: maraud through the American League towards the World Series.

The Chicago White Sox, on the other hand, would probably be happy to live in the 2026 regular season forever. Written off before the year even began, they started hot and kept winning. While pundits expected them to continue their slow rebuild, their youth movement bubbled over into major league success far faster than expected. They led the AL Central longer than any other team this season. They won 24 more games than they did last year, which was itself a 19-game improvement on the year before. Unless they win the World Series, the 2026 White Sox will be remembered for their miraculous regular season, not whatever goes on in the few games they play afterwards. But being remembered is for the future; right now, all that matters is avoiding going home for one more series. So while Chicago has blown away expectations and Houston has fallen short of meeting their own, none of that matters for the next two or three games.

The divergent regular season experiences of these two clubs make for an interesting setup for this clash. But that’s just the big picture storyline. The series has several points of interest on both sides that I’m excited to talk about. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to the last 2026 edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. The regular season is headed to a conclusion, with two division titles and four playoff spots still up for grabs. For me, late September is a great time to catch my breath and watch a little meaningless baseball as a palette cleanser before flipping the switch to the maximum-intensity world of October. So while there are some consequential games this week, this column isn’t about those. It’s about some goofy things I saw in low-stakes matchups, a player I enjoyed watching all season, and some voices that have enriched my baseball-viewing experience over the years. With my customary acknowledgment of Zach Lowe of The Ringer, who popularized the format this column shamelessly copies, let’s get started.

1. Professional Courtesy
Baseball players on opposite teams are competitors, but they’re also workers in the same field. Yes, you’d like to beat the other team, but your counterpart on their squad is one of the people who can most relate to your daily struggles. You might compete against them 10 times a year; the other 355 days, your lives are far more alike than different. Catchers have a particular bond; let people throw projectiles right at you all day, and you’ll naturally gain a lot of respect for other people willing to do the same thing.

When the Brewers and Phillies squared off this week, the stakes were moderate. The Brewers hadn’t clinched the top overall seed yet, though they were headed there. (They did last night, when the Dodgers lost to the Padres.) The Phillies haven’t yet clinched a playoff spot, though again, the writing is on the wall. For the most part, it was a playoff tuneup for both sides. In the top of the ninth on Tuesday, with the Phillies up three and cruising home, William Contreras decided that he might as well burn a challenge:

Read the rest of this entry »

Most of baseball’s awards races are formalities this year. The favorites are clear, and deservedly so. Pete Crow-Armstrong is having one of the greatest seasons of the 21st century. Jacob Misiorowski is a closer throwing starter innings. Bobby Witt Jr. has been terrific, but Yordan Alvarez is unsolvable. Cam Schlittler has more fastballs than batters have answers. Kevin McGonigle is a phenom. But I’m most interested in the sixth major race: National League Rookie of the Year. The gambling odds would tell you that it too is settled, with Sal Stewart the prohibitive favorite. But if I had a vote this year, I’d cast it for JJ Wetherholt, and I want to explain myself because I think this race provides a fascinating look into old school versus new school baseball statistics, and how both have blind spots.

Before we get into my argument, let’s get a few disclaimers out of the way. I am not voting for NL Rookie of the Year. I’m not a member of the BBWAA, even. I haven’t placed any wagers on NL ROY, or on any awards, or on anything even peripherally related to this. I was a Cardinals fan before I started working in baseball, but that has faded away. I have a lot of fond memories of Ozzie Smith, but I’m a fan of the sport now, not a team, and I’ve watched more Reds games than Cardinals games this year because I love watching Elly De La Cruz play. No one in the world is truly unbiased, but I don’t have a horse in this race in any meaningful way.

With that out of the way, let’s get down to brass tacks. The two leading candidates for the award are Stewart and Wetherholt, with Carson Benge a distant-enough third according to the odds that I’m largely leaving him out of the discussion, though he’ll make some cameos. Stewart’s résumé revolves around his thunderous bat. He’s batting .266/.333/.465, with 32 homers and a gaudy 110 RBI. Even in an offense-friendly home park, that’s good for a 115 wRC+, 15th-best among qualifying first basemen, and of course the RBI total is better than that. He’s played so-so defense at first – not that I care much about that in award voting – and has accrued 2.2 WAR per our calculation of the statistic. Read the rest of this entry »

Ah, the end of September. For most teams in baseball, it’s a time for planning. Out of the race? It’s time to plan for the future. Playoff spot locked up? Time to plan for October. The Brewers are no exception. They’ve cruised to a postseason bye and look very likely to end the year as the top overall seed. But while the games the rest of the regular season aren’t of huge import to them, one decision is: What to do about Kyle Harrison.

If Jacob Misiorowski hadn’t been the Brewers’ biggest story this year, Harrison would’ve been. After a few tough years in San Francisco and a rocky half-season in Boston, he arrived in Milwaukee in the Caleb Durbin trade and impressed right away. He struck out eight in his first start. He kicked it into overdrive by the end of April. An early summer slowdown notwithstanding, he had spectacular numbers at the All-Star break, and I was surprised he missed earning his first appearance at the Midsummer Classic.

In the end, he wouldn’t have played in the game anyway. The Brewers put him on the IL on July 11 with forearm tightness. When he returned in August, he was down a few ticks of velocity and looked like he was searching for the form that had so befuddled hitters earlier in the year. After a few near-misses and inefficient outings, the wheels fell off in Chicago on August 31; the Cubs tagged him for nine runs in 3.2 innings, courtesy of a gruesome five home runs. In his next start, at Cincinnati on September 6, he gave up six more runs and walked as many as he struck out. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Despite a middling second half, the Nationals have been one of this season’s pleasant surprises. After years of feeling both directionless and punchless, they’ve put together a spectacular offensive group and have won more games than in any year since their 2019 World Series championship. They’ve scored more than five runs a game on the season, the third-best mark in the majors, and it has been a team effort. Unfortunately, the pitching staff hasn’t followed suit; they’ve allowed the third-most runs in baseball themselves. But there has been one shining light in that group: Cade Cavalli, the team’s oft-injured first round draft pick from 2020. And they weren’t about to let a good thing go. Last Friday, Cavalli and the Nationals agreed to a four-year, $47 million contract extension with a club option for a fifth year, as Spencer Nusbaum first reported.

Cavalli is a fascinating pitcher – so fascinating that I wrote about him in late July. I think that piece is worth a read – hey, I wrote it – but if you’re looking for the TL;DR, the gist is that two months ago, Cavalli’s career was at an inflection point. His lengthy struggles with injury had limited him to roughly 50 innings before the 2026 season, and he’d scuffled in the minors in 2025 as he worked to build up his workload again. But he was spectacular in the first half of this season, the best arm on the Nats by a fair margin, particularly when taking his underlying numbers into account. What was to come was uncertain, but there were tons of bright outcomes in the distribution of possible futures.

A few months hence, I think we might be living in the best of those outcomes. Cavalli has made nine starts since I wrote about him, and he’s been spectacular, with 70 strikeouts and just 12 walks across 53 innings en route to a 1.87 ERA. He’s been a rare bright spot as the team has sputtered to an 18-23 record since the trade deadline. Thanks in part to the offensive contributors the Nats traded away, they’ve scored only 4.5 runs per game over that span. But they’re looking to the future, not to the past or even the present, and Cavalli’s phenomenal year has made him an indispensable part of that future. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time for another installment of Mathemadage, where I investigate time-honored baseball sayings using whatever data I can get my hands on and explore whether there’s any validity to them. If you’re new to my writing, I would describe my method as a semi-rigorous blend of math and intuition, with a rigorous amount of skepticism applied on top. If you’re not new to my writing, hi, hello! Welcome back. Today, we’re investigating a saying that was both my top candidate for this article and the one that came up most frequently in the comments of my last one. Yes, it’s time to talk about outs at third base. Oh, and if you’re looking for Five Things, it will return next Friday – Pete Alonso’s return to Citi Field was my favorite thing this week, and Jay Jaffe already covered it.

“Don’t make the first or third out at third base” was one of the rules that got hammered into me most frequently as a kid. It’s so ingrained that the last time I played rec league softball, I bonded with teammates over how we reflexively repeated it every time we coached third base. (I’m a big nerd, OK? I’ll take whatever bonding I can get.)

The logic behind this one makes good sense, too. With no one out, two productive outs could drive you home from second – why risk erasing yourself heading to third? With two outs, most plays that score you from third would score you from second as well – why risk erasing yourself again? But with one out, getting to third base is a big deal, because then a sacrifice fly or well-placed groundout can bring you home. From that angle, the logic is incontrovertible. Read the rest of this entry »