Author Archive: Ben Clemens

Every October, FanGraphs grades each playoff manager. We focus on their in-game decisions, because a lot of the most important parts of the job – things like keeping players ready to go and making sure relievers understand their roles so they know when they might be deployed – aren’t always visible to us from the outside looking in. A lot of what managers do never reaches the public eye. These report cards focus on the remainder of their decisions, the ones that come when the lights are bright and the game is on the line.

We attempt to evaluate those decisions based on process, not results. A pitching change isn’t necessarily bad because the reliever who comes in gets shelled, or good because he gets out of a jam. That’s not to say it can’t be a bad decision – if you bring in a mop-up man in a high-leverage spot, or let your righty specialist face Ben Rice, you made the wrong call. But we’re interested in the before, in what we could expect to happen when a manager makes a pitching change or calls on a pinch-hitter. It isn’t good to completely ignore results, but it’s also bad to fixate on them, and it’s my hope that our report cards strike the right balance.

Earlier this month, Jon Becker wrote up the four managers who lost in the Wild Card round. This week, we’re adding the Division Series losers to the mix. First up: Aaron Boone and the Yankees. Read the rest of this entry »

You want your ace on the mound when all the marbles are in the fire. When the stakes are high, the big cheese needs to have his hands on the wheel. Are those real metaphors? No, but I bet you knew what I was talking about in each case, because the playoffs are a perfect time to discuss the importance of star pitchers. But do you want to deploy them as early in the series as possible? Or do you want them for the decisive game? Does it even matter?

In our game chats and article comments — across the internet really — it’s hard to find a consensus. When I wrote about Chris Sale earlier this week, there were comments to the effect of “It’s a bummer he pitched out of the ‘pen in the Wild Card, now he won’t get to pitch in NLDS Game 5,” as well as “Don’t save Sale for Game 7 of the NLCS, there might not be a Game 7!” Those are exact opposite opinions, and yet they both make a lot of sense when I hear them. But they can’t both be right, so let’s do some math. Even though there’s no real adage to prove or disprove here, this feels like a job for Mathemadage.

Here’s the question, as I see it: For a given set of pitchers making postseason starts, which way would you like those starts arranged in a seven-game series? In other words, if you have an ace, a second banana, and some bullpen games, would you prefer to have your ace for Games 1 and 5 or Games 3 and 7? There are good intuitive reasons to prefer either. Games 1 and 5 happen in almost every seven-game series; Game 7 is a much less frequent occurrence. More innings for my best guy, please! But the stakes can also never be higher than they are in a decisive game. In a big spot? Why wouldn’t I want my best guy in? Read the rest of this entry »

When the Padres put Mason Miller on the paternity list ahead of NLDS Game 3, it always had to be this way. It’s like Chekhov’s gun; if you show me a missing closer in the first act, you must show me a late-inning situation where he’d normally appear in the final one. The Padres beat the Brewers 4-3 to stay alive, narrowing their NLDS deficit to 2-1, in what has been easily the most entertaining series of the divisional round.

Right from the jump, the Brewers put pressure on the Padres. And right from the jump, the Padres minimized the damage. Jackson Chourio tattooed a line drive to the deep part of the ballpark to open the game. In response, Jackson Merrill took off on a perfect line and slid across the warning track to corral it.

Nick Pivetta couldn’t throw the ball past anybody; Milwaukee swung 37 times at his pitches and missed only twice. The Brewers peppered line drives left and right, making frequent loud contact. But they got less for their troubles than you’d expect, because Pivetta beguiled them and his defense stood tall behind him. Read the rest of this entry »

When I’m trying to ground myself in the present, I like to repeat a mantra: No past, no future. I don’t want to dictate personal philosophy to you, but it works great for me. It’s a reminder to focus on the now, that experiencing what’s happening right this instant is more important than whatever mental baggage I’m carrying or whatever I’m worried might take place next week. I wholeheartedly suggest some variation of this phrase when you’re feeling overwhelmed by things that aren’t happening to you in the moment.

Having said that, let me be clear: You can’t ignore the past and future when you’re managing postseason pitching assignments, Walt Weiss. The Braves are five games into the playoffs, and they’ve been living the “no past, no future” life the entire time. Now, I actually think that has some useful consequences. The present really does matter quite a bit in playoff baseball – more than the future, and certainly more than the past. But it’s also caused them plenty of problems. The clearest example is also the most notable move Weiss has made so far. The Braves deployed bullpen games in each of the first two games of the NLDS over the weekend. The first was unavoidable, a consequence of their injury-depleted rotation, but the second was the direct consequence of Weiss’ earlier actions.

I’m talking about Chris Sale, of course. Sale started the Wild Card opener against the Phillies last Tuesday and worked into the seventh, throwing 95 pitches before departing with two on, one out, and the bottom of the Philly lineup coming to the plate. After a little turbulence (Didier Fuentes allowed both inherited runners to score, giving the Phillies the lead), the Braves pulled it out. But after Philadelphia won the second game of the series, Weiss called on Sale to cover the final four outs of the decisive Game 3. Read the rest of this entry »

When the Chicago White Sox pushed aside the Houston Astros in a Wild Card sweep, they set up a tilt against a familiar opponent. The Cleveland Guardians are the hereditary rulers of the AL Central, and they nipped the Sox by a single game this year. But other than playing in the same division and having nearly the same record, the two teams present quite the clash in styles. The White Sox are a group of young guys who hit home runs. The Guardians are a group of veterans who play small ball. It’s so compelling that it’s hard to find any other way to look at the series.

The difference between the two teams was on display immediately in Game 1. The Guardians sent Parker Messick to the mound for his first playoff start. He’s one of the best starters in baseball, and he’d be the Rookie of the Year favorite if Kevin McGonigle weren’t from another planet. The White Sox countered with opener Hagen Smith, coming off of an electric three innings against Houston. The White Sox aren’t deploying a “rotation” in the way you’d normally think of one; they’re heavy on multi-inning relievers and light on true starters, so their games are mix-and-match, while the Guardians hope to run their starter out for a decent stretch, then turn the game over to a series of one-inning relievers.

That’s the kind of game plan you can execute against the White Sox if you’re sharp enough. Messick came out a bit scattershot, walking Miguel Vargas and surrendering a hard-hit single to Munetaka Murakami in the first. But he also posted six strikeouts through the first three scoreless innings, the exact kind of numbers you’d expect against the aggressive White Sox lineup. Messick leans on his fastball, and he works the edges. That mattered more today, because to put it charitably, home plate umpire Cory Blaser’s strike zone was uneven. Five of those six strikeouts came on called strike threes, though White Sox hitters were clearly under dugout orders not to challenge early. A particularly egregious pitch to Randal Grichuk – 3-2 count, two inches off the plate outside – got Messick out of the third, and quite frankly, the combination of stuff and zone looked incredibly inhospitable to the White Sox. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve written a lot of playoff series previews over the years. You can go about them in a number of ways. Highlight some key players from each team, perhaps, or touch on one particularly interesting matchup. If you’re feeling frisky, series previews can tell a narrative story, or even get experimental and weird. But one thing I don’t think I’ve ever tried before is looking at the series through the lens of failure.

That sounds negative, defeatist, not in keeping with the kind of escapism we come to baseball for. But that’s only if you don’t think about it too long – because one team’s failure is another team’s success. If the Padres get eliminated, the Brewers don’t, and vice versa. It’s a zero-sum game. So let’s figure out how things could go wrong for the San Diego Padres and the Milwaukee Brewers, and use that to shine a light on what each team will be trying to do to the other as they square off in the NLDS.

How the Brewers Might Fail
Milwaukee has the best starter in baseball in Jacob Misiorowski, and by virtue of earning a first-round bye, they’ll deploy him on full rest to open the series. That means he’ll also be available to pitch on five days’ rest in a potential Game 5. It’s a huge advantage right from the jump; Milwaukee’s ace is better than San Diego’s ace, Michael King, and King won’t appear until Game 2 of this series.

But when a single starter is a major reason for one team’s advantage, failure is always just around the corner. Misiorowski gets my vote for the best pitcher in baseball right now, and he’s going to win the NL Cy Young in a landslide. But even as he cruised to a 1.80 ERA, he was hardly perfect. He got tagged for five runs twice this year, and for three runs five more times. Read the rest of this entry »

On September 6 and then again on September 12, Tyler Mahle squared off with the Phillies. Both times, he left them frustrated and flailing; he allowed three runs across 13 innings in two Atlanta victories. In each of those games, Mahle leaned on his splitter quite a bit, something he’s done more frequently since joining the Braves at the trade deadline. That set up an interesting mind game in Wednesday’s Game 2. Seeing the same opponent for the third time in a month, would Mahle change his ways? Would the Phillies change their own approach? And could they overcome the Braves, who had been their nemeses throughout the year, and prolong their season for another day with their Kryptonite on the mound?

Mahle’s splitter was devastating last outing, so clearly the Phillies would have to sit on it. But wait! Mahle knows that the Phillies know that they won’t beat his splitter unless they key on it. So clearly, he should throw them fewer splitters. But wait! The Phillies know that Mahle knows that they will probably be sitting on the splitter. So clearly, they can’t look for splitters. But wait! Mahle knows that the Phillies know that… Well, you get the idea. There are levels to this, to paraphrase Kendrick Lamar.

Or maybe not. The Phillies either went too many levels up, or they didn’t even get into the endless iocaine powder reasoning loop I just described. Because Mahle came out leaning on his splitter, just as you’d expect, and the Phillies came out with absolutely no solutions. As Arthur C. Clarke said, any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. And to Philadelphia, Mahle’s splitter might as well have been Power Word: Whiff. They surely knew it was coming – it just didn’t matter. Read the rest of this entry »

Sometimes you have to go with a bullpen game. It isn’t exciting, but it’s just the reality of modern baseball. With the White Sox and Astros each battling right to the end of the season for their respective division titles, it set up a Game 1 matchup of poorly-rested pitching staffs without full, conventional rotations. Both managers looked at the starters they had available on full rest (nobody), looked at the starters they’d already used on short rest in the last week (plenty), and each settled on a bullpen game. And that’s how we ended up with a lengthy, disjointed contest where the outcome felt decided in the first hour.

Will Venable and the White Sox pitching staff put their best foot forward to open Game 1. Hagen Smith might get a playoffs-opening start as a full-time starter before his career is over; the fifth overall pick in the 2024 draft, he ripped through the minors and looked amazing in a multi-inning relief role down the stretch. When people talk about playoff pitching as nine innings of closer-level stuff, they’re imagining guys like Smith handling short stints. He came out fully gassed up, throwing a tick and a half faster than he had all season and ripping off electric sliders at the drop of a hat. He max-efforted his way through three innings of work. Perhaps most impressive, he went after Yordan Alvarez both times he faced him, including with a runner in scoring position, and won both confrontations. Read the rest of this entry »

No one will be happier than the Houston Astros when the second game of their Wild Card Series starts. See, during the first game, they won’t have a playoff win-loss record, so the fact that they went 81-81 this year, the worst record ever to win a division title, will come up early and often. That’s such a striking fact that we’ll no doubt continue to hear about it throughout the playoffs, but in their first game, it’s going to be one of the main topics of conversation. Houston would love nothing more than to leave behind that pedestrian regular season and get back to what the team normally does in October: maraud through the American League towards the World Series.

The Chicago White Sox, on the other hand, would probably be happy to live in the 2026 regular season forever. Written off before the year even began, they started hot and kept winning. While pundits expected them to continue their slow rebuild, their youth movement bubbled over into major league success far faster than expected. They led the AL Central longer than any other team this season. They won 24 more games than they did last year, which was itself a 19-game improvement on the year before. Unless they win the World Series, the 2026 White Sox will be remembered for their miraculous regular season, not whatever goes on in the few games they play afterwards. But being remembered is for the future; right now, all that matters is avoiding going home for one more series. So while Chicago has blown away expectations and Houston has fallen short of meeting their own, none of that matters for the next two or three games.

The divergent regular season experiences of these two clubs make for an interesting setup for this clash. But that’s just the big picture storyline. The series has several points of interest on both sides that I’m excited to talk about. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to the last 2026 edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. The regular season is headed to a conclusion, with two division titles and four playoff spots still up for grabs. For me, late September is a great time to catch my breath and watch a little meaningless baseball as a palette cleanser before flipping the switch to the maximum-intensity world of October. So while there are some consequential games this week, this column isn’t about those. It’s about some goofy things I saw in low-stakes matchups, a player I enjoyed watching all season, and some voices that have enriched my baseball-viewing experience over the years. With my customary acknowledgment of Zach Lowe of The Ringer, who popularized the format this column shamelessly copies, let’s get started.

1. Professional Courtesy
Baseball players on opposite teams are competitors, but they’re also workers in the same field. Yes, you’d like to beat the other team, but your counterpart on their squad is one of the people who can most relate to your daily struggles. You might compete against them 10 times a year; the other 355 days, your lives are far more alike than different. Catchers have a particular bond; let people throw projectiles right at you all day, and you’ll naturally gain a lot of respect for other people willing to do the same thing.

When the Brewers and Phillies squared off this week, the stakes were moderate. The Brewers hadn’t clinched the top overall seed yet, though they were headed there. (They did last night, when the Dodgers lost to the Padres.) The Phillies haven’t yet clinched a playoff spot, though again, the writing is on the wall. For the most part, it was a playoff tuneup for both sides. In the top of the ninth on Tuesday, with the Phillies up three and cruising home, William Contreras decided that he might as well burn a challenge:

Read the rest of this entry »