Author Archive

Effectively Wild Episode 1731: In Good Standings

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about their imperfections, follow up on flying horses, Justice Blackmun omitting Mel Ott from Flood vs. Kuhn, and a possible defense of pitcher hitters, then assess the state of the standings and playoff races, contemplate a position change for Fernando Tatis Jr., discuss the Field of Dreams Game, and consider a point in favor of robot umps and signs of spin-rate resurgence.

Audio intro: David Bowie, "Win"
Audio outro: Oh Pep!, "The Race"

Link to article about how horses fly
Link to article on Blackmun and Ott
Link to Ben on pitcher hitters/position-player pitchers
Link to post on Canseco pitching
Link to video of Holt pitching
Link to post on slowest possible pitches
Link to thread on slowest possible pitches
Link to FanGraphs Playoff Odds
Link to Mike Petriello on the Mets’ offense
Link to Petriello on the Jays’ offense
Link to Justin Choi on the Jays
Link to Rob Mains on team mobility
Link to Rob Arthur on the absence of superteams
Link to article on Tatis in the outfield
Link to Field of Dreams episode
Link to paper on umpire discrimination
Link to thread about umpire discrimination
Link to tweet about resurgent spin

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Effectively Wild Episode 1730: The Mike Trout 30th Birthday Draft


Effectively Wild Episode 1729: That’s Just Like, Your Opinion, Man

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about baseball (and steeplechase?) at the Olympics, then answer listener emails about teams intentionally drafting players they don’t intend to sign, Willy Adames as an NL MVP candidate, Dominic Smith and reverse platoon splits, secret ball-strike counts, and which is better (or worse), position-player pitchers or pitcher hitters, then meet major leaguers Shea Spitzbarth and Stephen Ridings and do a Stat Blast about Flood v. Kuhn and Supreme Court Justice Harry Blackmun, the original Rememberer of Some Guys (plus a postscript about the life and death of legendary Astros ace J.R. Richard).

Audio intro: The Baseball Project, "Gratitude (For Curt Flood)"
Audio outro: Joni Mitchell, "The Last Time I Saw Richard"

Link to story about Olympic baseball
Link to Tess Taruskin on prospects at the Olympics
Link to steeplechase wiki
Link to Devan Fink on the NL MVP race
Link to research on reverse platoon splits
Link to Sam Miller on abolishing the strike zone
Link to Ben on pitcher hitters/position-player pitchers
Link to Tribune-Review on Spitzbarth
Link to Post-Gazette on Spitzbarth
Link to Newsday on Ridings in 2021
Link to Newsday on Ridings in 2016
Link to WFAN on Ridings
Link to story on Yankees’ three debuts
Link to Ridings press conference video
Link to story about Haverford’s baseball execs
Link to Flood v. Kuhn wiki
Link to Flood v. Kuhn opinion
Link to SABR research on Flood v. Kuhn
Link to Blackmun Stat Blast data
Link to Cabell’s comments about Richard
Link to MLB.com on Richard
Link to Allen Barra on Richard

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Effectively Wild Episode 1728: On Guardians

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the Mets not signing first-round pick Kumar Rocker, owner Steve Cohen’s comment about the decision, and the amateur draft as a salary-suppressing institution, then discuss how injuries have destabilized some of the major end-of-season awards races. After that (31:51), they talk to Cleveland native (and Baseball Prospectus writer) Russell Carleton about his history as a fan of the team soon to be known as the Cleveland Guardians, when he changed his mind about changing its name, the real history of the old name, what he and other Clevelanders think of the new name, the potential for a rechristening in Atlanta, and more (plus a postscript on a record streak of alternating wins/losses).

Audio intro: Bruce Springsteen, "I’m a Rocker"
Audio interstitial: Blind Melon, "Change"
Audio outro: Jackson Browne, "My Cleveland Heart"

Link to report about the Mets and Rocker
Link to story on Rocker’s future
Link to story about later Mets selections
Link to Steve Cohen tweet
Link to Brendan Gawlowski on the draft
Link to Joon Lee on Angels minor leaguers
Link to Russell on minor league housing
Link to stream Stove League
Link to Russell on the Guardians
Link to Joe Posnanski on the Guardians
Link to Nancy Kelsey-Carroll on the Guardians
Link to academic paper on Sockalexis
Link to pictorial history of Chief Wahoo
Link to the “Curse of Rocky Colavito”
Link to the “Curse of Chief Wahoo”
Link to story on “racist uncles”
Link to Patrick Dubuque’s Guardians sketch
Link to Guardians of Traffic history
Link to story about the roller derby team
Link to story about an Atlanta name change
Link to longest alternating W-L streaks

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Effectively Wild Episode 1727: One Trade Deadline to Rule Them All


Effectively Wild Episode 1726: Hit, Stand, or Surrender

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the one-for-one A’s-Marlins swap involving Starling Marte and Jesús Luzardo, Marte’s underrated career, and Miami’s enviable pitching stockpile, then discuss the circumstances surrounding a potential trade of Max Scherzer. After that (35:21), they talk to FiveThirtyEight senior writer Neil Paine about the factors that affect whether teams add or subtract at the trade deadline, Neil’s “Doyle Number” metric for assessing trade-season incentives, how this year’s unusual playoff picture has created unusual deadline conditions, and specific teams that should or shouldn’t be motivated to make moves.

Audio intro: Guided By Voices, "Bellicose Starling"
Audio interstitial: Modest Mouse, "Bankrupt on Selling"
Audio outro: Arthur Brown, "Come and Buy"

Link to Marte WAR comparison
Link to Zach Kram on trading top prospects
Link to Ken Rosenthal on the Scherzer talks
Link to Jay Jaffe on the Nationals
Link to story on Scherzer’s contract
Link to “Doyle Number” articles
Link to Jayson Stark on execs at the deadline
Link to 2021 “Doyle Number” data
Link to Rob Arthur on the playoff picture
Link to Neil’s “Hall of Good” series
Link to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast history
Link to Neil’s research on true talent
Link to Hot Takedown podcast

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Effectively Wild Episode 1725: Jerry Built

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the Padres trading for Adam Frazier and other pre-deadline activity, Joey Votto’s offensive resurgence, Shohei Ohtani’s dirty uniform, and more, then react in real time to the Mariners surprisingly trading Kendall Graveman to the Astros for Abraham Toro. They also answer listener emails about adding a pitcher/DH position, bringing back unlimited two-strike foul bunts to combat the shift, trading catchers at the deadline, the possibility of pitchers, not catchers, calling pitches, and enjoying baseball via stats alone. After that, they do a “Meet a Major Leaguer” on two rookies recently traded to the Pirates, Hoy Park and Tucupita Marcano, and share a Stat Blast on Merrill Kelly and the longest team streaks in which the only wins were in starts by one pitcher (plus postscripts on trades, “pulling the goalie,” cycles, and more).

Audio intro: The Pretty Things, "Joey"
Audio outro: Lana Del Rey, "Mariners Apartment Complex"

Link to Dan Szymborski on the Frazier trade
Link to latest Ohtani two-way outing
Link to story on the “phantom DH”
Link to story on electronic pitch-calling
Link to The Hidden Language of Baseball
Link to story on Maddux pitch-calling
Link to Gallo shift before two strikes
Link to Gallo shift with two strikes
Link to story on the two-strike-bunt rule
Link to Travis Sawchik on foul balls
Link to story on Marcano
Link to Stat Blast data
Link to Ryan Divish on the Mariners’ reaction
Link to story on Piniella’s “cycle”
Link to tweet about Kepler
Link to Facebook thread on cycles and no-nos
Link to Mary Shane podcast

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Effectively Wild Episode 1724: Changing of the Guardians

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the new name and look of Cleveland’s MLB team, the Guardians, then react to the Rays trading for Nelson Cruz and dealing away Rich Hill, analyze a new electronic system for sending signs from catchers to pitchers that’s about to be tested in A ball, and salute Juan Soto’s post-Home Run Derby hot streak. Then (38:42) they bring on FanGraphs writers Ben Clemens and Kevin Goldstein to talk about their just-completed ranking of the 50 players with the most trade value, touching on how the series’ sausage was made, the most divisive players, the toughest omissions, valuing pitchers vs. hitters, evaluating Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Max Kepler, Ramón Laureano, and other players, synthesizing stats and scouting info (and production and pay), what they expect at this year’s trade deadline, and how teams’ behavior at the deadline has changed (plus a postscript on historic pitching matchups and more alternate cycles).

Audio intro: Lou Reed, "Guardian Angel"
Audio interstitial: The Bats, "Trade in Silence"
Audio outro: Sloan, "I Can Feel It"

Link to Guardians announcement video
Link to Guardians logo and lettering
Link to Guardians uniforms
Link to story on Tom Hanks and Cleveland
Link to article about the Guardians name selection
Link to Dan Szymborski on the Cruz trade
Link to BP IL Ledger
Link to report on electronic signs system
Link to story on Soto and the Derby
Link to story about the Derby “curse”
Link to Trade Value series

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Effectively Wild Episode 1723: Absolute Zero

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the return of the debate about batting around and other unending debates they do or don’t care about, whether MLB should borrow the NFL’s plan to make clubs forfeit games that can’t be played because of unvaccinated players, Willians Astudillo being back in the big leagues, and listeners’ suggestions for alternate cycles, then answer listener emails about Zack Greinke and the Expos, turning the zombie runner into a ghost runner, beliefs about baseball that they have changed their minds about or will change their minds about, a baseball equivalent of pulling the goalie, and how long it would take aging former stars’ career WARs to hit zero, plus a Stat Blast about the Mariners and teams with the longest droughts since their last sweep of a homestand or road trip.

Audio intro: Lou Reed, "Endless Cycle"
Audio outro: Death Cab for Cutie, "Debate Exposes Doubt"

Link to WSJ batting around article
Link to Deadspin batting around article
Link to 2019 batting around video
Link to 2021 batting around video
Link to “triple short of cycle” games
Link to “Miggy cycle” games
Link to story about NFL forfeits
Link to post about pulling the goalie
Link to post about civilian WAR
Link to post about potato WAR
Link to Stat Blast data

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Effectively Wild Episode 1722: One Month Without Sticky Stuff

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the length of the baseball season (and postseason) compared to other sports’, whether Shohei Ohtani ever grows frustrated with his mere-mortal teammates, the prolific predictions of the Rockies’ Mike Redmond, a possible modification to the zombie-runner rule, an update on the Marlins’ run differential, a story about a broadcaster bet gone wrong, a listener report on Tony La Russa, Willie Stargell’s stars, an Ohtani playing-time fun fact, the AL MVP race, the Blue Jays returning to Toronto (and a hat tip to John McDonald), a few potential variations on the cycle, and when MLB will welcome its first active, openly gay player, then close with a discussion of MLB’s first month sans sticky stuff, focusing on the offensive effects and whether cheating is overrated.

Audio intro: Vetiver, "Been So Long"
Audio outro: The Posies, "Flavor of the Month"

Link to study on postseason randomness
Link to Neil Paine on MLB vs. the NBA
Link to Ohtani’s postgame comments
Link to The Onion on Ohtani
Link to Ohtani Week intro
Link to Redmond predictions story
Link to Nightengale on the zombie-runner rule
Link to The Athletic on the zombie-runner rule
Link to Jim Rooker story
Link to Jake Mintz’s ride
Link to Buster Olney on Stargell’s stars
Link to Engadget on Stargell’s stars
Link to cycle tweet
Link to story on Ron Wright
Link to story on the “Saint Cycle”
Link to Ben on sticky-stuff effects

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