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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 8/16/17

12:01
Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday everyone.

12:01
Dave Cameron: Let’s talk some baseball.

12:01
The Average Sports Fan: Last week you dismissed the Cardinals as a legit playoff contender.  The Cubs are still disappointing, and Cardinals are only 1.5 games back.  Sticking to your guns?

12:02
Dave Cameron: I didn’t dismiss the Cardinals; I said their WC hopes probably leaned more on COL/AZ falling apart than hoping the Cubs keep struggling.

12:02
Dave Cameron: That remains true. The Cubs are a very good team. If you think they’re going to suck for the next six weeks, you’re probably going to be disappointed.

12:03
Ed in Iowa: Giancarlo Stanton is probably priced about right at 10yr/$285. There is not a lot of surplus value there, but the contract is no longer under water either. Do you agree with this assertion?

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Did the Orioles Steal Tim Beckham?

Tim Beckham has been baseball’s best player in August. (Photo: Keith Allison)

In one of the least noticed trades before the July 31st deadline, the Rays and Orioles made a seemingly minor swap, with Tampa sending shortstop Tim Beckham to Baltimore for minor leaguer Tobias Myers. After acquiring Lucas Duda to take over at DH, the Rays had filled their infield and didn’t have regular at-bats for Beckham anymore, so they shipped him off to Baltimore for an 18-year-old in short-season ball.

Only since that seemingly inconsequential swap, Beckham has been the single best player in baseball, and we have to ask if the Orioles somehow stole a quality shortstop from their division rival.

August Leaderboards
Name PA BA OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ WAR
Tim Beckham 60 0.500 0.517 0.897 0.584 278 1.6
Giancarlo Stanton 55 0.367 0.436 1.041 0.579 264 1.3
Joey Votto 63 0.435 0.587 0.783 0.551 243 1.2
Mike Trout 59 0.386 0.542 0.727 0.521 242 1.2
Josh Donaldson 54 0.341 0.481 0.854 0.524 237 1.1
Andrew Benintendi 47 0.425 0.489 0.875 0.540 244 1.1
Nelson Cruz 52 0.396 0.423 0.979 0.558 266 1.0
Charlie Blackmon 59 0.396 0.508 0.729 0.503 197 0.9
Joey Gallo 48 0.275 0.396 0.900 0.509 224 0.9
Kris Bryant 60 0.412 0.483 0.647 0.472 193 0.9

Know how Giancarlo Stanton has been hitting homers every game? Beckham has been better.

Notice how Joey Votto is closing in on the record for consecutive games on base multiple times? Beckham has been better.

Enjoying how Mike Trout is establishing a new level of greatness, even by his own standards? Beckham has been better.

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Chris Sale for MVP

Aaron Judge’s monster first half made him an obvious MVP candidate, even as he’s slowed down in the second half of the year. Jose Altuve leads qualified hitters in wRC+, as a second baseman who also happens to steal a bunch of bases, so he’s an obvious MVP candidate. Mike Trout is within +1 WAR of both of them despite spending two months on the disabled list, and on a per-game impact, is again obviously making the biggest impact of anyone on the planet, so he’s a less-obvious MVP candidate, but he should be in the mix by season’s end.

But if the voting were held today, there would be a pretty clear choice for the American League’s Most Valuable Player, and it would be Chris Sale.

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Indians Lose Michael Brantley, Add Jay Bruce

It was an eventful 24 hours for the Cleveland Indians outfield. On Tuesday, left fielder Michael Brantley sprained his ankle in a game against the Colorado Rockies, so Wednesday, the team put him on the disabled list and promptly traded for his replacement, Jay Bruce.

Because Bruce cleared waivers last week, the transaction was fairly straightforward. The Mets already knew they weren’t going to get much for him, as every team in baseball passed on taking on the remaining $4 million of his contract. So when Cleveland suddenly needed an outfielder, it represented a chance for the Mets to at least save some money while also freeing up playing time for Dominic Smith at first base. In exchange for assuming responsibility for the remainder of Bruce’s contract this year, Cleveland surrendered just RHP Ryder Ryan, a player so notable that this is the first time his name has ever been mentioned on the site.

Here’s what you need to know about Ryan: he was a 30th-round pick in the 2016 draft and is pitching in relief in A-ball as a 22-year-old. This trade isn’t exactly like the Indians claiming Bruce on waivers and the Mets just letting him go, but it’s basically that.

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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 8/9/17

12:01
The Average Sports Fan: The Cardinals are now over .500.  Are they an actual playoff contender?

12:01
Dave Cameron: It will take either the Rockies or D’Backs falling apart. They aren’t going to catch the Cubs, most likely.

12:02
Rod: Dave, can I use the rolling charts in a blog article? Secondly, if so, is there an option to get a picture of chart? Screenshot?

12:03
Dave Cameron: Yes, you can always use any of our graphics in your posts, as long as you link to FG in the process. There’s a download image button coming soon, but for now, screenshot is the way to capture them.

12:03
christopher: Tigers fans complain about the JD return, A’s fans about the Yonder return, but those two + the crater of the bat only FA market last offseason means… that was about the reality? Has the market overcorrected?

12:04
Dave Cameron: I think there’s a decent argument to be made that bat-first players are now underpriced, yes.

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The A’s Might Have a Developing Star

Matt Chapman looks like an all-around player. (Photo: Minda Haas Kuhlman)

Over the last few years, the A’s have had a high-end player problem, in that they haven’t had any. Jed Lowrie currently leads the team with +2.3 WAR; by comparison, the Astros have seven players who have already reached that mark, and that does not include their best pitcher, Dallas Keuchel, who spent two months on the DL. The team has developed some decent role players and decent enough everyday players, but they haven’t really had a franchise player since they traded Josh Donaldson to Toronto.

Without getting too far ahead of ourselves, I am starting to wonder if they’ve finally found a guy who at least has the potential to get to that level in the not too distant future. His name is Matt Chapman.

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Getting the Tigers a Real Prospect for Justin Verlander

It wasn’t a big surprise when Justin Verlander stayed in Detroit at the July 31st trade deadline, because for Verlander, the 31st wasn’t really a deadline. With $28 million salaries for each of the next two years, he wasn’t in much danger of being claimed on waivers; sure enough, he reportedly went unclaimed last week, and is again free to be traded to any team in baseball. And now that prospective buyers don’t have the distraction of other possible options, it might actually be easier for the Tigers to trade Verlander this month than it was in July.

Of course, easier doesn’t mean easy. As Jeff noted a month ago, there appears to be something of a gap between how the Tigers see Verlander and how the rest of the league sees him. Detroit seemingly is shopping him as if he’s still the ace he pitched like last season, not the average-ish starter he’s pitched like this season. And Jeff’s piece laid out why that isn’t a totally unreasonable position.

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We Need to Talk About Rafael Devers

Last night, Rafael Devers played his eighth game in the Major Leagues since being called up to fix Boston’s third base problem. In that eighth game, he recorded his 13th hit. It looked like this.

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Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 8/2/17

12:05
Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

12:07
Dave Cameron: Before we get to the chat, I wanted to note that I unfortunately won’t be able to attend this weekends Saber Seminar or the Pitch Talks event in NYC on Monday as originally planned. My dad had a stroke last week, and I’m in Seattle helping out for a bit. Given the fact that Carson is also on paternity leave learning how to be a Dad and that a good chunk of our staff is traveling to Boston this week, I’ll ask for a little more grace than usual this week if things aren’t running at 100% on FG. We’ll get back to normal soon enough.

12:08
Dave Cameron: I will really miss being at Saber Seminar, and hopefully if you were planning on saying hi this weekend, we can catch up in the not too distant future.

12:08
Dave Cameron: With that out of the way, let’s talk some baseball for a little bit.

12:08
striker: Love Eric’s rankings of prospects dealt during the trade deadline season. Based on that write up, looks like Hahn did really good with his returns for all of his deals so far. Would you give him an A so far? What, if anything, would you have done differently?

12:10
Dave Cameron: I think he got the best deal he probably could have in almost every trade he’s made, maybe save the Frazier/Kahnle/Robertson swap. I do think the prospects he’s acquired are generally more well regarded by fans than is justified by their value within the game, and he’s bought a lot of of very high-risk prospects, so the White Sox failure rate might be higher than you’d expect from a farm system this good. But clearly, they have some pieces with very high upside as well, and if a few of their gambles pay off, they’ll find some stars to build around.

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The Dodgers Did Not Steal Yu Darvish

You’ve seen the news. You’ve almost certainly even seen the return, and unless you’re a devoted follower of the Dodgers’ farm system, you may not have recognized any of the names. Brendon Davis and A.J. Alexy were low-level guys who weren’t on many radars, and even the known guy in the deal was a back-end Top 100 prospect, an unorthodox-shaped hitter without a position who has never been talked up as any kind of future star.

So it’s easy to look at this deal and call it a big win for the Dodgers. They just added one of the best pitchers in baseball to an already-dominant pitching staff. Breaking the all-time record for wins in a season now isn’t that far-fetched. They are going to enter the postseason as the clear team to beat, and all it cost them was a guy who didn’t really fit on their roster in an obvious way and two lottery tickets in A-ball.

None of that is wrong. The Dodgers did well here, picking up a difference maker without surrendering any of the guys they see as potential core pieces for them down the road. But baseball trades aren’t always zero-sum affairs, and just because this was a nice move for LA doesn’t mean the Rangers got taken advantage of here.

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