Next week, I’m rolling out the latest version of our annual trade value series. Before we get into this year’s list, though, I think it’s instructive to look back at where players were ranked a year ago, and see if there are any lessons to be learned from the placement of various players. I would rather learn from history than repeat it.
Let’s just start with the list itself.
Glen Perkins has, somewhat quietly, become a dominating relief pitcher. He currently sits 5th among qualified relievers in FIP (1.84), 4th in xFIP (2.21), and he has 14 shutdowns against just two meltdowns. He’s into advanced statistics and knows what FIP and xFIP are. He’s going to represent the Twins in the All-Star Game next week, the team he grew up watching as a kid in Minnesota. And he’s signed to a well below market contract, one that pays him just $2.5 million this year, $3.75 million for the following two years, and then gives the Twins a $4.5 million option on his 2016 season. Because of all these things — okay, probably not the nerd part — the Twins are reportedly not willing to trade Perkins, as their preference is to keep him while they rebuild a new core of young players around him.
The Mets might do a similar thing with Bobby Parnell. He has also been excellent (2.16 FIP, 3.16 xFIP) since moving into their closer role, and as a 28-year-old under team control via arbitration for the next two seasons, the Mets are apparently disinclined to trade him. Neither team wants to send the message that their rebuilds are going to take years, and both are showing a preference to retain their young, cost controlled assets and simply move older pieces on larger contracts instead.
Here’s the problem. Closers — relief pitchers in general, really — are simply not worth building around. Today’s asset is tomorrow’s liability, and the Twins and Mets should learn from the mistake that the Royals made with Joakim Soria.
There are a lot of opinions about the use of performance enhancing drugs in Major League Baseball. The BioGenesis reports have put those opinions back front and center, and if you want sensationalized outrage, you don’t have to look very far to find it. That’s why I’m linking to this piece in the Denver Post by former Rockies outfielder Ryan Spilborghs.
| 11:42 |
: It’s Wednesday, so we’re chatting. The trade value series starts next Monday, so if you have questions about the list that isn’t “where does so and so rank”, fire away.
|
| 12:00 |
Do you think the Mets will wind up trading Bobby Parnell, and if so, what kind of return will they get? |
| 12:01 |
: My guess is that they won’t, as there are too many other more veterany rent-a-reliever types on the market that won’t command as high of a price.
|
| 12:01 |
How far has Matt Kemp fallen on the trade value list? |
| 12:01 |
: He’s maybe the second toughest guy to peg, after his teammate, Yasiel Puig. Kemp, right now, isn’t on the list. That might change by publication, but it might not. It all depends on how worried one is about the shoulder.
|
| 12:02 |
thanks for the chat Dave! just want to know what you think about the all-star selections, if you care about them |
When a player hitting .172 with a .232 on base percentage is traded for an A-ball pitching prospect, it usually doesn’t generate big headlines. So, you can be forgiven if you haven’t paid a ton of attention to the most recent trade between the Nationals and Cubs, which sent outfielder Scott Hairston to Washington and Ivan Pineyro to the Cubs, plus a pair of PTBNLs, with one going in each direction. According to Jed Hoyer, the two players to be named later “will not affect the balance of the deal”, so it’s basically Hairston for Pineyro, with the Cubs picking up a small part of Hairston’s small contract for 2014.
However, just because this is a minor deal doesn’t mean it’s an unimportant deal. Last summer, Marco Scutaro was traded in a similar kind of swap, and turned out to be the best player acquired at the deadline. Role players have value, and Scott Hairston could be a pretty nice role player for the Nationals.
Major League Baseball’s attempts to narrow the gap between franchises has resulted in an incentive system. While other leagues have salary caps and floors, Major League Baseball has instituted a system of luxury taxes (to bring down the highest payrolls) and revenue sharing (to bring up the lowest ones). As I noted in a piece for ESPN The Magazine this spring, the system has been pretty effective too, as we are currently experiencing an age of parity unlike any time in MLB history.
However, incentives don’t work in every situation. You can carrot-and-stick your way to success on a broad level while still having some individuals fall through the cracks. Overall, I think MLB’s financial system is mostly as effective at promoting competitive balance as a hard salary cap would be, but that doesn’t mean that the system doesn’t have some flaws. And, with the Ricky Nolasco trade, the Miami Marlins are shining a bright light on the system’s flaws once again.
| 11:59 |
: Time, Peanut Butter Jelly.
|
| 11:59 |
Does Colby Rasmus not suck anymore? |
| 11:59 |
: He is a mid-range dude. Rasmus is either the crappiest good player or the best crappy player in baseball.
|
| 12:00 |
Grant Green worth a pickup in 12 teamers? |
| 12:01 |
: As long as you know it’s speculative. He’s not going to grab all the palying time
|
| 12:01 |
just how Hard will Michael Cuddyer’s current .374 babip crash back to earth in the 2nd half? |
Homer Bailey threw a no-hitter last night, putting him in the same group as a lot of other people. It was actually his second no-hitter, putting him in a much smaller group of guys who have done it twice. This post is not really about Homer Bailey’s no-hitter — I’m working on one of those too, but it’s a little more research intensive — but about the fact that Homer Bailey shouldn’t have needed to throw another no-hitter to get some attention. Because, even before last night, Homer Bailey was pitching like an ace.
| 11:44 |
: Welcome to the first chat of trade season. We’ll still do questions on all (non-fantasy) related things, but I’ll probably focus more on trade questions during July than in other months of the year. So, if you want to talk Ricky Nolasco, this is your big chance.
|
| 12:00 |
If the Angels put Mike Trout on the trade market but insisted that the other team take Pujols along with his entire contract, how much would they get back? What if the team had to take Pujols and Hamilton? |
| 12:02 |
: Pujols isn’t worthless, so let’s say that the $210 million or so left on his deal is an overpay of about $100 million. Clearly, you’d pay $100 million to get 4+ years of Mike Trout, no question. Add Hamilton’s contract to the mix and you’re probably talking about another $50 million or so of dead money, maybe even $75 million if you think he can’t come back from this. That’s getting to the point where you’re taking on $40 million per year for Trout. He’s probably worth it, but it’d be close.
|
| 12:03 |
Homer Bailey is a top __ starting pitcher in baseball. |
| 12:03 |
: 20, maybe 15. 10 would be pushing it. He’s good though, no question.
|
| 12:03 |
Who should the Reds get for LF? Is this still their biggest need? |
With the lack of high quality pitchers on the trade block, the Brewers have made it known that Yovani Gallardo could be available for the right offer. Since Gallardo is only 27-years-old and under team control through 2015, he has the potential to bring back a more significant piece to help the Brewers rebuild than the rent-a-veteran types that other clubs are shopping. However, there’s one small problem; Gallardo is doing his best to scare off any clubs who might have seen him as an answer to their rotation problems.
In his last two starts, Gallardo has allowed 13 runs while pitching only seven innings, and those clunkers came against the Cubs and Nationals, neither of whom are known for their ferocious offensive attacks. It’s not wise to decide that a player is not useful based on a couple of recent poor performances, but Gallardo has been trending the wrong way for a while now.