The lessons from week three.

Jason Heyward isn’t the only rookie outfielder impressing people.

While Heyward has had the big play moments, Tyler Colvin has been tearing the cover off the ball up in Chicago. Since he had never played above Double-A and showed an aggressive approach in the minors last year, many assumed that major league pitchers would eat him alive. So far, though, he’s been crushing every fastball he sees, hitting .333/.405/.697 in 38 trips to the plate. Six of his 11 hits have gone for extra bases, and he’s already drawn four walks, 25 percent of his Double-A total from last year.

In fact, Colvin’s wFB/C (runs above average per 100 fastballs seen) is second highest in baseball, behind only Ryan Braun. He’s been below average against soft stuff, so don’t be surprised if pitchers start feeding him a steady diet of breaking balls in the near future. His minor league track record suggests that he’ll have trouble making the adjustment when they do, but there are few doubts left that Colvin can hit a big league fastball.

The entire Cubs outfield is on fire.

Colvin isn’t the only one who is swinging a hot bat in Chicago right now. In the last seven days, the Cubs got a .627 wOBA from Colvin, a .579 wOBA from Kosuke Fukudome, a .490 wOBA from Marlon Byrd, and a .457 wOBA from Alfonso Soriano. As a whole, their outfield hit .402/.455/.701 in the past week. If you’re wondering how they managed to win four of their last five games, look no further than those four.

Lyle Overbay is not dead.

In his first 55 trips to the plate in 2010, Overbay went 4 for 50, racking up a horrific .080/.145/.140 line. The calls for Brett Wallace began to get louder, as Overbay was the worst hitter in baseball for a couple of weeks. He’s revived himself in the last week, though, hitting .375/.524/.750, racking up four extra base hits and five walks in 22 trips to the plate.

It’s still unlikely that Overbay finishes the final year of his contract in Toronto, but the Blue Jays will have a much easier time trading him if he is actually hitting the baseball. After a rough start to the season, Blue Jays fans have been reminded that he can actually still do that.

The Astros realized the 2010 season has begun.

Houston lost their first eight game of the season, and were the butt of jokes all around the league. Since then, they’ve won eight of ten, and are actually within spitting distance of .500 again. Last week, they ranked 3rd in team wOBA at .363 and first in team xFIP at 3.31.

Michael Bourn led the charge, getting on base 52 percent of the time last week and giving the rest of their order a chance to drive him in. Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers gave the team’s rotation a boost behind Roy Oswalt, and the bullpen was lights out, running a 1/15 BB/K ratio in 16 innings of work, in which they only allowed two runs.

Their roster still has all kinds of problems, but after a beginning to the season that made them look like the worst team in baseball, the Astros have played really good baseball the last week.

This isn’t going to come as stunning news to anyone who has watched him pitch, but Jake Peavy just isn’t right. After last night’s implosion, he has allowed 19 runs in 22 innings, and it’s not bad luck. He’s just pitching terribly.

He’s walked as many batters (15) as he’s struck out. His groundball rate is just 33.3%, down from his career average of 41.6 percent, but he’s not giving up more flyballs – instead, those grounders have turned into screaming line drives. Batters are making contact with 84.4 percent of the pitches he throws, and his swinging strike rate is half of what it was in his prime.

Add it all up, and you get a 5.94 xFIP, which is below replacement level. Through four trips to the mound, Peavy has pitched worse than you’d expect from waiver bait.

Unless he’s hurt (a distinct possibility, given his history), he’ll improve. Even with the transition to the American League and having to pitch in a park that favors hitters for the first time in his career, the changes in context aren’t enough to take him from good pitcher to complete bum. But how optimistic can White Sox fans be about their pseudo-ace?

His pre-season ZIPS had him posting a 3.86 FIP, and the updated rest-of-season ZIPS (which takes into account his first four games of 2010) has him projected for a 3.87 FIP. Clearly, the projection systems aren’t going to panic over a 22 inning sample. However, ZIPS doesn’t know that Peavy’s lost a couple of MPH off his fastball over the last few years or that he’s battled elbow problems the last few years.

It’s not time to panic, but there is certainly cause for concern. Command has been the hallmark of Peavy’s success in the big leagues, and a sudden inability to throw strikes can often be a sign of a more serious problem.

Given all the extra things we know, I’d take the over on that 3.87 rest of season FIP. Chicago fans should be concerned.

In general, it’s not a great idea to react to early season slumps and make rash decisions about who should play and who should not. The numbers are all still small samples, and we should generally expect players to perform about the same as we did when spring training ended, regardless of how they’ve played so far.

However, there are teams that should make some changes, and one in particular stands out. Down in Texas, it’s time for them to make a change at first base.

Chris Davis is, once again, struggling at the plate. This isn’t new, as he posted a .311 wOBA last year. He’s tried to increase his contact rate to cut down on the strikeouts, but it’s coming at the cost of his power, as he has yet to hit a home run. Davis doesn’t do enough other things well to be a valuable player without the longballs, and he’s still got a decent amount of work to do if he’s going to become a good big league hitter.

The Rangers can’t afford to let him work out his problems in Arlington, however, not when they have a viable alternative hanging out in Triple-A. Justin Smoak, one of the game’s premier prospects, is just terrorizing PCL pitching, hitting .326/.500/.587. As a stark contrast to Davis, Smoak has drawn 16 walks and struck out just 6 times in his 62 plate appearances so far.

Smoak has a really good approach at the plate, and while he doesn’t have Davis’ raw power, he puts the bat on the ball enough to drive the ball into the gap with regularity. With the Rangers offense scuffling, they could use Smoak’s ability to get on base. Davis may yet turn into a quality big league first baseman, but the Rangers are in a pennant race, and they can’t dig too big of a hole early in the season.

Texas’ best line-up includes Smoak at first base. Already three games back in the AL West and losers of six in a row, it’s time for them to make the move.

You know the drill. I’ll be around at noon to field questions for an hour.

The first pitch Tim Lincecum ever threw in the major leagues was reported to be 99 MPH on the Giants stadium gun (we don’t have Pitch F/x data for that performance, unfortunately). He then proceeded to hit 100 three times in his first big league inning, showing the velocity that had gotten him drafted in the first round, even as scouts were concerned with his command, delivery, and workload. In that first year, Lincecum’s fastball averaged 94.2 MPH, the seventh hardest fastball in the game, and he threw it 67 percent of the time.

Other than the hair, Lincecum barely resembles the pitcher he was just three years ago.

You don’t need a best fit line to see the trend in that image. His velocity has been steadily falling since he arrived in the big leagues, and through his first three starts this year, his fastball is averaging just 91.7 MPH. He has thrown 312 pitches this year, and only three of them have topped 95. He now throws about as hard as Matt Harrison and Clayton Richard. But, this is the crazy thing – it hasn’t mattered at all.

While Lincecum’s lost his top end fastball, he’s shown zero effects from it. In 20 innings this year, he has a 2.20 xFIP, and he’s still blowing hitters away with nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s worked in his slider more often and increased his change-up usage, so he now throws nearly as many off-speed pitches as he does fastballs. In just three years, Lincecum has gone from a flame throwing ace to a junkballer whose best asset his the command of his secondary stuff.

It’s a pretty remarkable transformation. The pitcher he is now is almost the exact opposite of the guy he was in college. If you watched Lincecum in college, where he posted a career 5.7 BB/9, and projected that he’d become more Greg Maddux than Nolan Ryan, you’d have been laughed out of the room. But that’s essentially what has happened.

Usually, when we point to reduced velocity, there are injury concerns or performance declines, but there’s really nothing like that with Lincecum. He’s still one of the best pitchers in the game – he’s just doing it in a dramatically different way.

Our look back at the last seven days continues, as we find out what we learned in week two.

Shin-Soo Choo is a decent hitter.

11 for 19, 3 2B, 3 HR, 6 BB, 1 K, and a stolen base for good measure. Over the last week, Choo has posted a .756 wOBA. He created +8.8 wRAA in 25 plate appearances. Choo flew under the radar a bit last year, despite a 5+ win season, but he should be firmly entrenched in people’s minds now. Grady Sizemore is still the franchise player in Cleveland, but he has a sidekick now. There should be no more doubting whether Shin-Soo Choo is for real.

Perhaps pitchers should pay attention to Joey Votto.

Last year, Votto played 131 games, came to bat 544 times, and stole four bases. Last week, Votto played seven games, came to bat 23 times, and stole four bases. It’s not like he just piled them up against one pitcher who wasn’t paying attention, either. He stole a base on the 12th, the 14th, the 15th, and the 17th. He’s now four for five in thievery this year, despite entering the year with 12 career steals in 18 attempts.

We know Votto can hit. Apparently, he wants to add running to his repertoire. He’s probably fast enough to steal double digit bases (he did collect 24 steals in Double-A back in 2006), but it will be interesting to see how quickly pitchers adjust to his new found desire to run.

Rich Harden is not right.

In two starts last week, Harden lasted just 9 2/3 innings, walked nine guys, hit two more, and threw a wild pitch. Command has never been his forte, but he’s now running a 9.45 BB/9 on the season. His fastball averaged just 90.6 MPH, and only 41 percent of his pitches were in the strike zone.

This version of Harden doesn’t appear to have good enough stuff to challenge hitters, and his already poor command just compounds the problem. The upside with him is obvious (he’s still missing bats), but given how he’s throwing right now, it’s hard to see the Rangers getting a real return on their investment from Harden this year. Meanwhile, Derek Holland is destroying the Pacific Coast League – it might not be a bad idea to make a switch, send Harden out on a rehab assignment, and let him work on building some arm strength. Having him try to get back to full speed in the majors isn’t working very well.

Congratulations to Ubaldo Jimenez, and whatever the most extreme opposite of congratulations is to Tony LaRussa.

Do you know who has the lowest xFIP of any starting pitcher in baseball through two starts? I would imagine you did not guess Justin Masterson, whose 1.93 xFIP just edges out Roy Halladay for the early lead. But, when you look at his line and see 1.64 BB/9, 11.45 K/9, and a 54.8% GB%, you may realize that he’s put two really good starts together to begin the year.

Guys who can get both groundballs are strikeouts are usually potential front line starters. Masterson can use his sinker to induce a grounder or his slider to put hitters away, and he’s excelled in both areas to start the year. Yet, I’m still concerned about Masterson’s ability to stick in the rotation, and for one simple reason – left-handed hitters.

Masterson throws from a low 3/4 arm slot, as you can see here, making both his fastball and slider brutally tough on right-handed hitters, since it’s being released behind their heads. However, lefties get a good look at that release point, and since Masterson is a two pitch guy, everything he throws them breaks right into their wheelhouse.

This is reflected in the stats. Even in his excellent first two starts of 2010, it’s just come as domination against right-handed hitters.

2010:

Vs RHB: 33 TBF, 6 1B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 14 K
vs LHB: 16 TBF, 4 1B, 3 2B, 1 BB, 0 K

For his career, Masterson has a 3.29 xFIP vs RHBs and a 4.88 xFIP vs LHBs. His sinker still gets lefties to pound the ball into the ground, but he has to nibble around the zone in order to not get hit too hard, so his walk rate goes way up and the strikeout rate goes down. Additionally, he also has demonstrated a huge BABIP platoon split (.336 vs LH, .250 vs RH), which may or may not be real, as we talked about earlier this spring.

While Masterson’s results through two starts have been encouraging, it’s hard to believe anything has really changed. He faced two righty heavy line-ups and blew them away, but we already knew he could do that. He still hasn’t shown any ability to get lefties out regularly, and that will be the key to him remaining in the rotation.

Until he comes up with something to lower his platoon splits, he’s going to profile as a Chad Gaudin/Vicente Padilla type starter. Rather than getting excited about his first two starts, I’d advise Cleveland fans to get excited once they hear that he’s developed a good change-up.

Most teams have played eight or nine games at this point, so the numbers are still essentially meaningless. However, there are still interesting statistical curiosities we can look at. Russell Martin’s ridiculous bat control this season, for instance.

Martin has seen 117 pitches in 2010. He has swung and missed just twice, for a swinging strike rate of just 1.7 percent, compared with a league average 8.2 percent. The main reason he’s not missing pitches? He’s not swinging at anything outside the strike zone.

His O-Swing percentage is a ridiculous 4.4 percent. The league average is 25.6 percent, and the next lowest O-Swing percentage is Colby Rasmus at 9.4 percent. Put simply, if you’re not pounding the zone, Martin is keeping the bat on his shoulder. Because of his early season discipline, he’s only swung the bat in a quarter of the pitches he’s been thrown, which has led to eight walks in 29 trips to the plate.

Martin’s always been a pretty patient hitter, but never to this extreme. In the first week of the season, he’s essentially been the catching version of Tony Gwynn. His eye for the zone has been off the charts good, and it’s the main reason he’s off to such a good start in 2010.

Don’t bet on it continuing, of course. Martin had over 2,300 plate appearances coming into the season, and those are a much better indicator of his abilities than the 30 he’s had so far this year. But, for at least a week, he’s shown how a patient approach at the plate can pay off in a big way. The only-swing-at-strikes philosophy can work for anyone, not just big lumbering power hitters.

The opening day chat was pretty successful, so we’ve decided to add a weekly live chat into the schedule. Every Wednesday at noon, I’ll be answering questions from you guys for an hour, and some of our authors may swing by as well. Feel free to leave questions in the queue, and we’ll get to as many as we can.