As the title of the post indicates, this is a list of the 20 best and also worst groundballing seasons, 1950-2001, as estimated by the Retrosheet ground-out/air-out (GO/AO) data hosted at Baseball-Reference.

For more on the research here, please don’t hesitate to read the last article in this series or a discussion of same at Tango’s Inside the Book blog. I’ve also included a brief discussion of some name on this list after the leaderboards.

Here are the 20 best groundballing seasons (xGB% is Expected Groundball Percentage and xGB+ is xGB% relative to league average in the relevant season):

Pitcher		Team	Year	GO/AO	xGB%	LgAvg	xGB+
Steve Trout*	CHC	1984	3.62	67.9%	43.2%	157
Tommy John*	LAD	1978	3.72	68.4%	43.9%	156
Tommy John*	LAD	1977	3.87	69.2%	44.6%	155
John Denny	PHI	1983	2.90	63.5%	43.9%	145
Kevin Brown	FLA	1997	2.99	64.1%	44.4%	144
Bob Stanley	BOS	1982	2.82	62.9%	44.3%	142
Tommy John*	NYY	1988	2.57	61.1%	43.2%	142
Bill Swift	SEA	1988	2.57	61.1%	43.2%	142
John Denny	CLE	1981	2.79	62.7%	44.6%	141
Kevin Brown	FLA	1996	2.70	62.1%	44.3%	140
Dennis Lamp	CHW	1982	2.68	61.9%	44.3%	140
Orel Hershiser	LAD	1984	2.45	60.1%	43.2%	139
Kevin Brown	TEX	1989	2.47	60.3%	43.3%	139
Jerry Reuss*	LAD	1982	2.60	61.3%	44.3%	139
Tommy John*	LAD	1976	2.50	60.5%	43.7%	138
Kevin Brown	TEX	1990	2.37	59.5%	43.0%	138
Ray Fontenot*	NYY	1984	2.40	59.7%	43.2%	138
Al Brazle*	STL	1950	2.24	58.4%	42.2%	138
Chuck Rainey	CHC	1983	2.50	60.5%	43.9%	138
Bill Swift	SFG	1993	2.43	60.0%	43.5%	138

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Episode Sixty-Four
In which the guest is more Cwik than dirty.

Headlines
A Real Cwik Introduction
Bad-Mouthing Dave Cameron for Fun and Sport
Walk-Up Music: Some Very Important Thoughts

Featuring
Chris Cwik, New-ish Guy

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 30 min play time.)

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Recently, in these pages, I’ve been looking at the relationship between ground-out/air-out ratios (GO/AO) — available in slightly different iterations at MLB.com and Baseball Reference (B-R) — and the ground-ball percentages (GB%) we host here at FanGraphs. (See Part One and Part Two of this most exciting of explorations.)

We know that GB%s measure the percent of all batted-balls that were hit on the ground and that GO/AOs are a ratio only of ground-outs to air-outs (with the Retrosheet data from B-R appearing to include line-outs as part of the air-out data and MLB appearing to exclude line-outs entirely). Despite this difference, it appears as though the correlation between GB% and GO/AO — especially the iteration available at B-R — is rather strong. Plotting actual GB%s against “expected GB%s” (xGB%) — that is, the exptected GB% using only GO/AO as the input — gives us a correlation coefficient of .98 for qualified pitchers from 2002 to 2010. The root mean square error (RMSE) between the GB%s and xGB%s is a mere 1.4%.

Because the data at B-R goes back to 1950, what started off merely as an attempt to provide a reference for people who had access to GO/AO but not GB% has potentially become an opportunity to estimate with some accuracy the GB%s of pitchers going back to the middle of last century.

“OMG” is what you’re saying to yourself, I’m sure.

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Last Friday, I submitted for the readership’s consideration a brief post on how one might convert the ground-out/air-our ratios (GO/AO) found at MLB.com to the ground-ball rates (GB%) found here at FanGraphs. Though, as the much esteemed Tangotiger noted, the work wasn’t entirely grounded (get it?) in logic, the effort satisfied my immediate concern — namely, to create a quick-reference table for translating MLB’s GO/AOs (which are, for example, sometimes included with press-box stat sheets) into the GB%s with which most saber-oriented readers will be more familiar.

Of course, MLB.com is not the only site that publishes GO/AO data. Retrosheet (via Baseball-Reference) has GO/AO ratios going back to 1950. If it so happened that Retrosheet’s GO/AO numbers correlated strongly with our GB%s here, then we might — and I’ll stress might — have a tool with which to look back at some 60 years’ worth of ground-balling data.

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This morning, I posed to the readership the fifth and final player-profile question ahead of the release of this year’s Second Opinion.

Unlike the previous four, this question required the reader not to submit the correct answer before all other readers, but to (a) submit the correct answer and then (b) also submit a worthy epithet for said mystery player.

The answers were many and varied — and greatly enjoyed (with one notable exception!!!) by this author. In fact, owing the enthusiastic response and great efforts of the commentariat, I’ve decided to supplement the Dark Overlord’s offer of one free copy of the Second Opinion with two more copies.

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Note: The 1:30pm ET deadline has passed. All submissions time-stamped at 1:30pm and before will be considered for the 2011 Second Opinion. Those after the deadline will still be considered in the heart of this author.

A winner will be announced this afternoon. Thanks, everyone!

As announced recently, FanGraphs will once again be offering to the public its fantasy companion guide, The Second Opinion.

In the meantime, we’re playing the player-profile game that I intoduced in these pages last offseason.

The game is easy: one person (me, in this case) offers the text of single player profile, being careful to omit any proper names that might reveal the identity of the player in question. The other person (you, the reader) attempts to identify the player using only the details provided in the profile.

Today’s question must be answered in two parts, as follow. In your reply in the comment section below, please include:

1. The name of the player in question.

2. What you consider to be the most appropriate epithet for said player. Homer, for example, mostly only ever refers to the “wine-dark sea” or “loud-thundering Zeus” or “Achilles, breaker of men.”* What ought to be this player’s epithet?

*More awesome Homeric epithets here.

To win, you must provide the correct name and also the sweetest epithet.

The submission window runs until 1:30pm ET. Limit one entry per person. Winner receives free access to the 2011 Second Opinion.

Note: The 1:30pm ET deadline has passed. All submissions time-stamped at 1:30pm and before will be considered for the 2011 Second Opinion. Those after the deadline will still be considered in the heart of this author.

A winner will be announced this afternoon. Thanks, everyone!

Can you catch a rainbow and put it in your pocket? Can you snatch a butterfly out of the sky, and say to it, “Hey, stop being a butterfly for a moment will you”? No! Such is the [BLANK]… Even for those who weren’t necessarily swept up by [BLANK] Fever, it’s hard to deny the righty’s accomplishments in 2010. In his first season back from Japan, [BLANK] surprised almost every baseball pundit by throwing 200-plus innings of sub-4.00 ERA ball. Nor was it smoke and mirrors: [BLANK’S] xFIP (3.93) and FIP (3.55) suggest that the ERA is real. While [HIS TEAM’S] offense wasn’t necessarily a juggernaut (sixth in the AL by park-adjusted batting runs), [BLANK’S] 12-13 record was undeservedly poor. Come 2011, there’s every reason to expect a similar performance from [BLANK]. For fantasy owners, the major difference will be perception: [BLANK] entered 2010 a virtual unknown; he enters 2011 as a pitcher with a 1.71 ERA in four high-profile postseason starts.

Because pitcher ground-ball percentages (GB%) are available at FanGraphs and because they strip away the influence of the defense behind a pitcher, they are (to the best of this author’s knowledge) the best available means of adjudging a pitcher’s ground-ball “profile.”

That said, ground-out/air-out ratios (GO/AO) are still more widely available than pure ground-ball percentages — and are, for example, the only grounder-related number Major League Baseball publishes at its site. So it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility that one could find himself in such a situation as he had access to the one (i.e. GO/AOs) and not the other (GB%s)*.

*In press boxes, for example, stat sheets featuring GO/AO — but NOT GB% — are frequently available.

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Note: Tomorrow’s question will be IN TWO PARTS. Get ready to rumble answer a kinda nerdy baseball question.

Play the player-profile game every day this week at 11:30am ET. Each day, we’re giving away a free copy of the 2011 Second Opinion to the first reader who guesses correctly the identity of that day’s mystery player. (Limit one copy per customer).

As announced recently, FanGraphs will once again be offering to the public its fantasy companion guide, The Second Opinion.

In the meantime, we’re playing the player-profile game that I intoduced in these pages last offseason.

The game is easy: one person (me, in this case) offers the text of single player profile, being careful to omit any proper names that might reveal the identity of the player in question. The other person (you, the reader) attempts to identify the player using only the details provided in the profile.

First reader to guess correctly (in the comments section below) gets a free copy of this year’s Second Opinion — approximately a $1000 value!

Today’s entry comes to us courtesy of Second Opinion mastermind Marc Hulet.

Who is it?

[BLANK] surprised a lot of people in 2010. The former first-round draft pick had some disappointing minor-league seasons and had one foot out the door before a solid 2010 showing in Triple-A gave him one last shot. [BLANK] isn’t going anywhere now and he’s the odds-on favorite to start at second base for the [BLANKS] in 2011. His value is still down a bit from when he was drafted, simply because he doesn’t catch anymore. However, he will likely serve as the club’s third-string catcher and an injury to one of the top two could increase [BLANK’S] fantasy value significantly depending on the games-played requirement in your fantasy league. He may already have third-base eligibility in some leagues after making six appearances there in 2010. Like fellow rookie [BLANK], [BLANK] has the potential to hit .280-.300 but he’ll hit for more power and could slug about 15 homers. He could potentially reach the 20-homer mark if his line drives (22.4%) get a little more loft.

Former first-round pick. Quasi-catcher. Breakout-ish 2010.

Also: MUST BE SPELLED CORRECTLY.

Play the player-profile game every day this week at 11:30am ET. Each day, we’re giving away a free copy of the 2011 Second Opinion to the first reader who guesses correctly the identity of that day’s mystery player. (Limit one copy per customer).

As announced recently, FanGraphs will once again be offering to the public its fantasy companion guide, The Second Opinion.

In the meantime, we’re playing the player-profile game that I intoduced in these pages last offseason.

The game is easy: one person (me, in this case) offers the text of single player profile, being careful to omit any proper names that might reveal the identity of the player in question. The other person (you, the reader) attempts to identify the player using only the details provided in the profile.

First reader to guess correctly (in the comments section below) gets a free copy of this year’s Second Opinion — approximately a $1000 value!

Today’s entry comes to us courtesy of Malcolm Gladwell Look-Alike and Fantasy Expert Eno Sarris.

The numbers are clues, but you probably don’t have time to look them up.

Who is it?

Looking back through [BLANK’S] minor-league history, it’s hard to find a harbinger for last year’s double-digit strikeout rate. He only once struck out as many as one batter per inning on the farm. But [BLANK] was a starter for most of that time, and his move to the pen played up his velocity (his fastball averaged 98.8 MPH) and simplified his repertoire down to that booming fastball and a useful slider. An above-average swinging-strike rate (13.3%) seems to suggest that he can continue to strike Major League batters out, but for fantasy uses, the real question is his proximity to the closer’s role. With [TEAMMATE #1], [TEAMMATE #2] and [TEAMMATE #3] in the pen around him, though, [BLANK] has too many veterans to pass to be considered a real sleeper for saves in 2011. [BLANK’S COACH] likes his veterans, as mediocre as some of his other options might be. [BLANK] is best used for strikeouts and holds out of the pen.

Episode Sixty-Three
In which the guest is a real-live baseball player.

Headlines
Some Notes on Plate Discipline
The Case of the Declining BABIP
The Art of Blogging
Matt Antonelli: Real or Olive-Garden Italian?
… and other super-serious matters!

Featuring
Matt Antonelli, Baller and Blogger

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 40 min play time.)

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download

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