Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Texas at Houston | 20:10 ET
Gallardo (174.1 IP, 108 xFIP-) vs. Kazmir (175.0 IP, 100 xFIP-)
Houston somehow now trails Texas by 3.5 games in the American League’s most westerly division — this after having led by 2.5 games as recently as two weeks ago. While it appears as though the Rangers’ success until that point had been a product in no small part of good fortune — indeed, the club still possesses seven more wins than their BaseRuns winning percentage would otherwise suggest — they’ve actually played like a legitimately strong team in the meantime. By way of illustration, consider the following table, which features the top-five clubs by total WAR over the last two weeks:

Top-Five Team WAR, Last Two Weeks

	Team	Batter WAR	Pitcher WAR	Total WAR
1	Texas	4.4	1.5	5.9
2	Pittsburgh	2.8	3.0	5.8
3	Chicago NL	3.4	2.2	5.6
4	Toronto	3.2	2.2	5.4
5	Cleveland	2.7	1.8	4.5

The Texas offense, in particular, has been proficient: they’ve recorded a 138 wRC+ over 528 plate appearances, accumulating more than four wins during that interval. While they’ve arrived there in a slightly different manner, the Rangers hitters as a whole have produced a rough facsimile of J.D. Martinez’s entire 2015 season. Fewer home runs and fewer strikeouts, but the same basic outcomes on both offense and defense.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Texas Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Cleveland at Minnesota | 20:10 ET
Anderson (77.2 IP, 111 xFIP-) vs. Gibson (186.0 IP, 100 xFIP-)
No second-place club is currently within fewer than three games of their respective division’s first-place club. Between that and an abbreviated Thursday schedule, none of tonight’s matchups feature much in the way of stirring consequences. The closest thing to urgency? Minnesota’s pursuit of the American League’s second wild-card spot. The Twins sit merely a game behind the Astros for the opportunity to participate in the play-in contest. Tonight represents an opportunity not only to observe how the club fares in that endeavor, but also to observe two of the AL’s most productive rookies, Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor (3.8 WAR) and Minnesota’s Miguel Sano (2.1 WAR). And for those among us who have a state car inspection scheduled for 5:30pm at the region’s best and/or only Nissan dealership, tonight also represents an opportunity to pass an hour acting out a strange, one-man performance of Sartre’s No Exit in that same dealership’s poorly lit waiting room.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Toronto | 19:07 ET
Nova (75.2 IP, 118 xFIP-) vs. Stroman (12.0 IP, 100 xFIP-)
Over two starts and 12.0 innings, right-hander Marcus Stroman has recorded a strikeout rate of just 10.6%, which figure would represent the lowest such mark among all qualified pitchers by three-tenths of a percentage point (just behind teammate Mark Buehrle). Despite that, he’s also produced a league-average expected fielding-independent (xFIP) mark over those same two appearances. The uncomplicated, but still noteworthy, explanation: a ground-ball rate (68.4%) that would rank first among all qualifiers. What Stroman has done, in other words, is to compensate for one negative extreme by means of a positive one — like a profoundly ugly person who develops a strong sense of humor or a weblogger who, lacking facility with the language, develops the ability to manufacture GIFs of Marcus Stroman.

Apropos of nothing else, here’s footage of Stroman from his last start, throwing a fastball with considerable arm-side run:

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 597
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio, during which edition he’s compelled by the host to belabor a point.

This edition of the program is sponsored by Draft, the first truly mobile fantasy sports app. Compete directly against idiot host Carson Cistulli by clicking here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 45 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Toronto | 19:07 ET
Severino (43.1 IP, 92 xFIP-) vs. Estrada (160.1 IP, 123 xFIP-)
By the methodology typically employed by the author to produce these dumb NERD scores, tonight’s Yankees-Blue Jays game is not the most highly rated. That largely fictional distinction belongs to the Angels-Astros encounter in Houston. And, indeed, that game could very possibly offer a relentless barrage of thrill and delight. One variable omitted from the haphazardly derived algorithm, however — and perhaps especially relevant during the postseason stretch drive — is the influence of the crowd on the game-as-spectacle. For while fan involvement during last night’s Houston game was relatively subdued, that was very much the opposite case in Toronto. Indeed, the numbers support that observation.

Attendance Relative to Capacity, 9/21/2015

Game	Stadium	Capacity	Attendance	% of Capacity
NYA @ TOR	Rogers Centre	54,000*	47,648	88.2%
LAA @ HOU	Minute Maid Park	41,574	25,318	60.9%

SOURCE: Baseball Reference

The Rogers Centre, which is capable of holding about 12,000 more people than Minute Maid Park, was also nearly 30 percentage points closer to capacity last night. The result: a greater sense of urgency for the observer. Reason dictates that tonight’s games will offer a similar set of conditions.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

*As multiple concerned internet citizens note, Rogers Centre capacity has actually decreased in recent years. The website for the venue itself now reports capacities of 47,000-49,000.

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
New York AL at Toronto | 19:07 ET
Warren (119.0 IP, 100 xFIP-) vs. Price (208.1 IP, 80 xFIP-)
Following Sunday’s loss by Toronto and victory by New York, the latter club trails the former by a mere 2.5 games now in the AL East — or, precisely 0.5 games fewer than the length of the series which begins tonight between the two clubs. Indeed, the Yankees could potentially enter Thursday with a half-game lead of their own — or, alternatively, a 5.5-game deficit. Or a 3.5-game deficit, too. Or a 1.5-game deficit, actually. Barring the unforeseen, these are the four possible outcomes. Including the unforeseen, the outcomes become considerably more numerous.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 596
Owen Watson is both (a) a graduate of the impractical and beautiful Hampshire College and also (b) a contributor to FanGraphs.com. He’s also the guest on this edition of the program.

This edition of the program is sponsored by Draft, the first truly mobile fantasy sports app. Compete directly against idiot host Carson Cistulli by clicking here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 57 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Oakland (Brooks) at Houston (McHugh) | 14:10 ET
Seattle (Hernandez) at Texas (Holland) | 15:05 ET
Today’s most highly rated game is a combination of two games, each involving the pair of clubs (Houston, Texas) situated nearest the top of the AL West standings. Logic suggests that the ideal way to consume them would be to watch whichever of the two featured a higher leverage index at the moment. As history reveals, however, logic suggests a number of ideas that, while theoretically sound, fail in practice.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Television and Texas Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Oakland at Houston | 19:10 ET
Gray (196.2 IP, 91 xFIP-) vs. Kazmir (171.1 IP, 98 xFIP-)
Despite their largely disastrous four-game series at Texas recently, Houston still retains the distinction of being the second-place club in closest proximity to their respective division’s first-place club. It’s not the sort of distinction that fits comfortably on a desk name plate — indeed, such an inscription would like require a surcharge of some sort — but it’s significant to the extent that it suggests the Astros needn’t be entirely resigned to merely a wild-card spot. Tonight’s game represents an opportunity to aid in their pursuit of a division title.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »