Ian Happ’s defensive future was unclear when the Chicago Cubs made him a first-round pick in the 2015 draft. The sweet-swinging switch-hitter was selected as an outfielder, but he’d also played multiple infield positions during his three years at the University of Cincinnati. That uncertainty — fueled more by versatility than any serious shortcomings with the glove — remained when he was rated the Cubs’ no. 2 prospect in January 2017. While Eric Longenhagen opined that Happ’s most expedient path to the big leagues was as a left fielder, he nonetheless had him on our list as a second baseman. Either way, Happ’s calling card was going to be his bat. As our lead prospect analyst stated, “It profiles wherever he ends up playing.”

What did Happ’s 2017 scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think of it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what Eric wrote and asked Happ to respond to it.

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“The Cubs drafted him ninth overall in a draft chock full of good college hitters up top despite questions about his ultimate defensive home.”

“There definitely were questions about my defensive home,” Happ said. “I’ve played seven positions in the big leagues, so while I ended up finding a home [in left field], I think it was an asset for me to be able to play a bunch of different spots — especially on those early teams with how many good players we had.

“We needed versatility in that group. We had Addison [Russell] playing shortstop. We had Javy [Báez], [Ben] Zobrist, Tommy La Stella, and myself at second. Kris Bryant was at third and [Anthony] Rizzo at first. In the outfield, we had [Kyle] Schwarber, [Albert] Almora, Jason Heyward, Jon Jay, Zobrist, and myself. We didn’t have a bunch of set positions, so to get in the lineup you had to hit, and you had to be versatile. That’s the way Joe Maddon ran teams over there. Had I been a one-position guy, I don’t know how much I would have played in the big leagues.”

“He’s an above-average straight-line runner with decent range and an above-average arm, but his actions and athleticism are not optimal for the infield.” Read the rest of this entry »

Bowden Francis was one of baseball’s best pitchers over the final two months of the 2024 season. From August onward, the 28-year-old Toronto Blue Jays righty made nine starts and posted a 1.53 ERA with 56 strikeouts while allowing just 24 hits and seven walks across 59 innings.

All told, Francis recorded a 3.30 ERA, a 22.5% strikeout rate, and a 5.4% walk rate last season across his 27 appearances (13 starts) spanning 103 2/3 innings. It stands to reason that the minuscule .211 BABIP he allowed isn’t repeatable, though it may not be due for as much of a regression as you might expect. Inducing weak contact is Francis’ modus operandi on the mound, and a low BABIP is a feature of his game, not a fluke.

Considering the priority for pitchers to generate as many swings and misses as possible, when I spoke with Francis during spring training, I wanted to understand his approach to pitching. Specifically, I asked him, “How do you get guys out?”

“Pounding the strike zone,” said Francis, who was selected out of Chipola Junior College in the sixth round of the 2017 draft. “Strike percentage, getting guys on their heels more. Mixing it up and moving it around, trying to keep them off balance. Pitchability is my thing. I’ve never been super-overpowering. I’ve always been more on the crafty side.” Read the rest of this entry »

Alan Roden roped baseballs with regularity this spring, helping himself to land not only a roster spot, but also an Opening Day start in right field for the Toronto Blue Jays. Showing signs that he’s ready to take off at the MLB level, the 25-year-old left-handed hitter punished Grapefruit League hurlers to the tune of a 1.245 OPS and a 220 wRC+. He also coaxed six free passes and fanned just four times over his 37 plate appearances.

More than spring training results factored into his first big-league opportunity. Building on a strong 2024 season, split between Double-A New Hampshire and Triple-A Buffalo, Roden has been adding pop to his profile. Previously known more for his bat-to-ball skills than for his ability to clear fences, the erstwhile Creighton University Bluejay is now looking to lift.

Having read of Roden’s efforts to generate more power, I asked him how he’s gone about impacting the ball with more authority.

“I think it’s less of the actual impact that’s better,” Roden told me at Blue Jays camp. “It’s more the shape of the ball off the bat, directionally. The exit velocities are high enough to where if I’m getting in the air to the pull side, it’s going to go. That’s where the damage comes from, hitting the ball with more ideal launch angles.”

Roden has a B.A. in physics, so understanding the aerodynamics of ball flight, and the swing paths that produce results, comes with the territory. Explaining his mechanical adjustments was a simple exercise for the Middleton, Wisconsin native. Read the rest of this entry »

Matt Chapman came in at no. 3 when our 2015 Oakland Athletics Top Prospects list was published in February of that year. Assigned a 45 FV by our then lead prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel, Chapman had been drafted 25th overall out of Cal State-Fullerton the previous summer. Playing most of his initial professional season in the Low-A Midwest League, the 21-year-old third baseman swatted five home runs and put up a modest .672 OPS over 202 plate appearances.

What did Chapman’s 2015 scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think of it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what McDaniel (now with ESPN) wrote and asked Chapman to respond to it.

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“A standout hitter and pitcher for Fullerton that didn’t have much first-round buzz for reasons I didn’t understand.”

“He was thinking like I do,” Chapman replied. “I thought I was a little underrated. Obviously, the A’s took a chance on me and it all worked out. But that’s funny, because I thought I had all the tools. I just wasn’t getting the love.”

“Chapman, has an 80 arm and has been into the high 90s on the mound, but is mostly an arm-strength guy with a short track record of pitching.” Read the rest of this entry »

In which ways would a fully-implemented Automated Ball-Strike System [ABS] impact pitching? According to a coordinator I spoke to, one effect could be a further increase in the number of power arms who can get away with attacking the middle area of the zone. Conversely, crafty finesse types will become even less common, as getting calls just off the corners will no longer be possible.

Count Chris Bassitt among those not enamored with the idea.

‘“If you go to a full ABS system, you’re going to develop more throwers and the injury rates are going to spike,” opined the 36-year-old Toronto Blue Jays right-hander. “Then you’ll have to go back to pitching. The only way to stay healthy is to pitch. That’s never going to change in our sport. No matter how many people want to do something different, you have to pitch. There are obviously a number of facets for why people get hurt at the rate they’re getting hurt, but the answer for the injury history of the sport for the last five, ten years is more throwers. I don’t agree with it.”

Seattle Mariners pitching strategist coordinator Trent Blank offered a more measured take on the ABS. Read the rest of this entry »

Dylan Cease was 21 years old and coming off of his first full professional season when Eric Longenhagen evaluated him for our Chicago Cubs Top Prospect list in January 2017. Cease was then ranked seventh in the system, with Eric assigning him a 45 FV and suggesting that he was more likely a reliever than a starter down the road. Cease has obviously followed a more successful path. Now 29 and about to begin his seventh big league season, and second with the San Diego Padres, the right-hander has been a top-shelf starter for four years running. Over that span he has toed the rubber 130 times — no pitcher has started more games — and logged a 3.52 ERA and a 3.32 FIP. Twice he’s finished top four in the Cy Young Award voting.

What did Cease’s 2017 FanGraphs scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think of it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what Eric wrote and asked Cease to respond to it.

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“Cease has done an admirable job at quelling what was once a violent head whack while still retaining the kind of velocity that made him an exciting prep prospect.”

“That sounds kind of like an old-school baseball thing,” Cease responded. “But… I don’t know. Maybe that was a thing? I know that I had a very long arm stroke. I’d have to see video, but I don’t recall it being like crazy violent. Usually, if you’re a starter you’re not too violent. Maybe it was, but my having very long arm action was the most memorable thing.”

“He was also flashing a plus curveball in the 79-81 mph range during instructs, but the pitch is more consistently average and, at times, below when it featured an easily identifiable, shapely hump out of his hand.”

“It’s funny, because there was no Trackman data,” Cease said. “If it was today, it would be like, ‘It’s moving at 15 or 18,’ or whatever. But yeah, while my curveball is pretty good, it’s never been my biggest swing-and-miss [pitch] or anything like that. So I would say that was probably fairly accurate; it did pop out sometimes. I actually don’t [throw a curveball] as much anymore.”

“There are several concerns about Cease, ranging from his size to his command to a lack of a third pitch; he has very little changeup feel right now.”

“That’s never changed, the changeup part of it,” Cease agreed. “I’ve never really been a plus-command pitcher either. I have my spurts, but for the most part it’s just getting my good stuff in the strike zone. I’ve also never been the biggest, but here we are.”

“Cease actually pitches with a good bit of plane when he’s working down, because of his vertical arm slot.”

“That sounds right,” he replied. “My slot is the same now, but with shorter arm action. I feel like that changed in my first or second year in the big leagues. It just happened. I was working on my lower half, and for whatever reason it just kind of played out that way.”

“His fastball has enough life to miss bats up in the zone when he’s missing his spots.”

“I think that’s just saying when I’m throwing heaters up in the zone, even if they’re out of the zone, sometimes I get the swings and misses,” Cease reasoned. “Basically it’s got good life. As for [the part about missing spots], honestly, I think I was just trying to throw it over; I was just trying to get it in the zone.”

“I’ve gotten a Yordano Ventura comp on Cease — undersized, hard-throwing righty with good curveball feel.”

“That’s pretty good,” Cease said with a nod of the head. “I mean, Yordano threw a little bit harder than me, but we both had lively arms.”

“He projects as a potential mid-rotation arm if the changeup and command improve, but he’s more likely to wind up in relief.”

“I do remember seeing that a lot as a young player, the bullpen aspect,” Cease recalled. “But yeah, pretty much it was, am I going to develop a third pitch, or get one or two pitches that are swing-and-miss, that can buy me multiple times through the order? I added a slider, which I didn’t have at that point. So I added my best pitch. I always had the velo, and if you have two good pitches you can kind of sprinkle in everything else and have them essentially play off each other. That’s worked out for me.”

Left fielders have traditionally been boppers, with the likes of Adam Dunn and Manny Ramirez — to name just two — populating the position over the past few decades. There have been Carl Crawford and Brett Gardner types as well, but by and large, big-time power guys have ruled the roost in the port-side corner. That hasn’t been the case of late. Last year, Yordan Alvarez and Teoscar Hernández were the only left fielders to top the 30 homer mark. Which isn’t to say the Crawfords and Gardeners have completely taken over. It’s more that the inhabitants of left field feature a mix of styles, with some possessing more multi-faceted skill sets than others. Read the rest of this entry »

Jackson Jobe supplied a quality quote when asked about last weekend’s three-straight-heaters punchout of Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr..””I’m done with trying to dot a gnat’s ass,” he told a small group of reporters. “It’s, ‘Here’s my stuff. If you hit it, good. Odds are, probably not.”

Jobe is a student of the art and science of his craft, so I proceeded to ask him where he feels he is in terms development. Has the 22-year-old Detroit Tigers right-hander essentially settled into his mound identity, or is there still work left to be done in the pitch lab?

“I’d like to think I got it pretty much all fine-tuned,” replied Jobe, who is No. 9 on our Top 100. “Now it’s just learning the best way to use it, the best way to sequence it. I put my stuff up against anyone in the league on paper, to be completely honest. It’s just a matter of learning how to harness it.”

Asked about any recent changes to his pitch metrics, the rookie of the year candidate cited his slider. Read the rest of this entry »

Jeff Hoffman is a different pitcher than the one who was drafted ninth overall by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2014. The 32-year-old right-hander has changed organizations multiple times, most recently moving from the Phillies back to his original team on a three-year, $33 million contract he signed in January. He earned that deal following back-to-back years in which he came into his own on the mound. Since being signed off the scrap heap by Philadelphia prior to the 2023 season, Hoffman has made 122 relief appearances and logged a 2.28 ERA, a 2.58 FIP, and a 33.4% strikeout rate over 118 2/3 innings. Before his breakthrough, he’d appeared in 134 games with a 5.68 ERA and a 5.34 FIP over 348 1/3 innings from 2016-2022.

Expectations were high when he entered pro ball. A potential first overall pick before injuring his elbow during his draft season at East Carolina University, Hoffman ranked second on our 2015 Blue Jays Top Prospects list despite having undergone Tommy John surgery the previous summer.

What did his FanGraphs scouting report look like at that time? Moreover, what does he think of it all these years later? Curious to find out, I shared some of what our then-lead prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel wrote back in 2015 and asked Hoffman to respond to it.

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“He broke out in the summer before the draft on the Cape, flashing an 80 fastball and 65 or 70 curveball from an athletic delivery, projectable frame and shockingly good feel to pitch given the power stuff. Read the rest of this entry »

Cody Bellinger enters the 2025 season as the starting center fielder of the New York Yankees, after they acquired him from the Chicago Cubs over the offseason in a trade that was essentially a salary dump. A former MVP and Gold Glove winner who spent two seasons in Chicago after six with the Dodgers, Bellinger is coming off a 2024 campaign that saw him swat 18 home runs, log a 109 wRC+, and put up 2.2 WAR in 130 games.

In November 2016, Bellinger was a 21-year-old first baseman who’d spent the lion’s share of that year raking in Double-A. The Scottsdale native ranked second on our Dodgers Top Prospects list, which was published that month.

What did his FanGraphs scouting report look like at that time? Moreover, what does he think of it all these years later? Curious to find out, I shared some of what Eric Longenhagen wrote back in 2016 and asked Bellinger to respond to it. Read the rest of this entry »