“If you’re taking follow up questions, I’d like to hear how he differentiates intention and conviction from physical effort. How difficult is it to mentally commit to the pitch but only give it 90% so you keep some gas in the tank? Is it even possible to do so?”
Fortuitously, an opportunity to circle back with the future Hall of Famer came just a few days later when the Blue Jays visited Fenway Park for a weekend series. As expected — Scherzer likes talking ball — he was amenable to addressing said followup.
“Effort level and conviction are different,” Scherzer answered. “You can throw a pitch at 100% effort and still be mentally indecisive about it. You can also put out less than 100% effort and be mentally convicted in what you’re doing. Can things go hand-in-hand? Yes, but it’s not ‘more effort means more conviction.’ You can just be more mentally convicted.”
Scherzer had opined in our earlier conversation that you’re more likely to miss your spot when not fully convicted. What about throwing with full conviction at a 90% effort level? Does that make it easier to pinpoint your command? Read the rest of this entry »
Chase Burns doesn’t need much of an introduction. The 22-year-old right-hander was featured here at FanGraphs prior to his much-anticipated June 24 major league debut, and when our Cincinnati Reds Top Prospects list was published in early May, he came in at no. 1, this after checking in at no. 28 overall as a 55 FV prospect on the offseason Top 100. And then there was the debut itself. With the eyes of the baseball world upon him, the second overall pick in last year’s draft fanned the first five New York Yankees batters he faced. With a fastball reaching triple digits and a razor-sharp slider to augment it, Burns has quickly established himself as one of the game’s most promising young arms.
Those things said, the flame-throwing Wake Forest University product is still a work in progress. Burns threw just 66 minor league innings before receiving his call-up, and while his initial frames were scintillating, he soon learned how challenging it is to face big league hitters. Not only did the Yankees go on to tag him for three runs, he failed to get out of the first inning in his second start, that against the Red Sox at Fenway Park.
How does Burns approach his craft, and what has he learned coming through not only Wake Forest’s pitching program, but also Cincinnati’s, which is likewise highly regarded? One day after his rocky outing in Boston, I sat down with Burns to find out.
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David Laurila: What do you know now that you didn’t know when you were coming out of high school?
Chase Burns: “It’s kind of a growing process, really. You’re learning as you go. There is a lot I’ve learned about, including analytics, going from high school to college — and even now — about how can I make my stuff better, about what plays in the game today.”
Laurila: Pitching analytics and optimizing your stuff is important, but more than that goes into succeeding at this level…
Burns: “Yes. I was fortunate to go to Wake Forest, where we had the pitching lab, but the pitching coach there, Corey Muscara, kind of talked about that. He talked about how you don’t want to dive too deep into the analytics, because at the end of the day, you’ve got to go out there and get outs. That’s the biggest thing.”
Laurila: Is there any one thing you learned about yourself as a pitcher at Wake Forest that you feel is especially important?
Burns: “I think I figured out that I was more of a north-to-south pitcher, as opposed to an east-to-west pitcher. I kind of throw the ball middle and let my stuff move how it’s intended, instead of trying to make this big sweep right to left. I think that helps me a lot.”
Laurila: That wasn’t until you got to Wake Forest?
Burns: “Yes. When I was at Tennessee [where Burns spent his first two collegiate seasons], I was trying to go in and out more, rather than up and down with all my stuff.”
Laurila: I assume you know your pitch metrics?
Burns: “I do. I’m a cut-ride guy, and I feel like my vertical is pretty good. I’ve been up to 20-21 inches [with the fastball], but it averages around 18. When I was at Tennessee, the vertical was pretty low, and I realized that I could get more, so that was something I went after. Now I don’t really worry about it too much; I kind of just play into the cut-ride profile. I think that’s kind of another weapon for me.
“Nowadays a lot of people are chasing vertical and spin rate — stuff like that — and I think it could be a good thing, but at the same time, it could be bad with the amount of injuries that we have today.”
Laurila: The slider is your best secondary pitch. Has that always been the case?
Burns: “Yeah. It’s a pitch I’ve always had feel for, even when I was younger. Over the years, it’s kind of just progressed naturally.”
Laurila: You also have a curveball and a changeup…
Burns: “The curveball is something I’ve had since college, but I didn’t really have times where I needed to use it as much. But at this level, you’re going to have to use it. It’s still developing, but it’s been a weapon for me.
“My changeup isn’t very conventional. It’s the kick-change that everybody’s been talking about. I’m a supinator, so it’s kind of hard for me to throw a changeup. I started kicking it, and have had some success doing that.”
Laurila: When did you start throwing the kick-change?
Burns: “I starting kicking it this year, right before spring training. Some guys at Wake Forest helped me develop it. I told [the Reds] that I’ve been working on it, I threw it a lot, and they were pretty happy with it.”
Laurila: Your fastball and slider are plus-plus pitches, while the other two aren’t at that same level. How are you approaching pitch usage in terms of using your entire repertoire versus mostly just going with your best weapons?
Burns: “I mean, two pitches at this level can be hard. A hitter can eliminate one, and that makes it a lot easier for them, so having four is huge for me. That’s something I’ve been working on in my recent outing. My changeup has been a really good pitch for me, especially against lefties.”
Laurila: You’re a power pitcher. Is that accurate?
Burns: “Yes.”
Laurila: In a perfect world, a pitcher is more than just power. Along with having nasty stuff, he knows how to “pitch.”
Burns: “I mean, that’s the end goal. When you can match those two together, being a power pitcher who throws hard, but also be able to use finesse — go up and down, in and out, be able to paint the corners — that’s what makes a pitcher really dangerous.”
Laurila: Going from being more of a thrower to more of a pitcher is an important evolution. As young as you are, do you feel you’ve turned that corner?
Burns: “I think so. Maybe some people don’t agree with that, but I feel I’ve made huge improvements from being just a guy that just tries to throw it hard to a guy that actually goes out there and pitches. But like I said earlier, it’s a growing process.”
With the caveat that his last outing was his worst of the 2025 campaign — seven earned runs over three innings against the Syracuse Mets — Cade Cavalli appears ready to return to the big leagues. Once he does, Washington Nationals fans will see a somewhat different pitcher than the one who made his last (and only) appearance in the majors on August 28, 2022. Going under the knife has a lot to do with that. After initially landing on the shelf with shoulder inflammation, Cavalli blew out and had Tommy John surgery in March 2023. At the time, the right-hander was his team’s top prospect and no. 63 on our Top 100 as a 50 FV. (Cavalli will be assigned a 45 FV on our forthcoming Nationals list.)
His return to full health was both long and arduous. After missing all of 2023, Cavalli made just a smattering of appearances a year ago, none above High-A, and he went through a dead arm phase this spring and didn’t take the mound until mid-April. Since then, he has been solid more often than not. While his ERA over 10 starts with Triple-A Rochester is 5.27, the now-26-year-old has gone five or more innings while allowing two or fewer runs on four occasions.
When we got reacquainted last month — I first interviewed him in July of 2021 when he was in Double-A — Cavalli explained how he has deviated from his pre-surgery days. Read the rest of this entry »
Cam Schlittler has emerged as the top pitching prospect in the New York Yankees organization. His ability to overpower hitters is a big reason why. In four starts since being promoted to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on June 3, the 6-foot-6, 225-pound right-hander has logged a 1.69 ERA and a 40.2% strikeout rate over 21-and-a-third innings. Counting his 53 frames at Double-A Somerset, Schlittler has a 2.18 ERA and a 33.0% strikeout rate on the season.
The 2022 seventh-rounder out of Northeastern University is averaging 96.5 mph with his heater, but more than velocity plays into the offering’s effectiveness. As Eric Longenhagen wrote back in January, Schlittler’s “size and arm angle create downhill plane on his mid-90s fastball akin to a runaway truck ramp, while the backspinning nature of the pitch also creates riding life.”
I asked the 24-year-old Walpole, Massachusetts native about the characteristics our lead prospect analyst described in his report.
“Arm slot-wise it’s nothing crazy,” Schlittler said in our spring training conversation. “I’m more of a high-three-quarters kind of guy, but what I didn’t realize until looking at video a couple months ago is that I have really quick arm speed. My mechanics are kind of slow, and then my arm path is really fast, so the ball kind of shoots out a little bit. With my height, release point— I get good extension — and how fast my arm is moving, the ball gets on guys quicker than they might expect.” Read the rest of this entry »
The path Shane Baz took to Tampa Bay’s starting rotation was anything but uneventful. He was drafted 12th overall in 2017 by the Pirates out of Concordia Lutheran High School in Tomball, Texas, where Ke’Bryan Hayes, Glenn Otto, and Adam Oller also played. The following summer, he was dealt to the Rays in a trade Pirates fans are loathe to remember. The Bucs acquired Chris Archer, while the Rays received Baz, Tyler Glasnow, and Austin Meadows.
Baz went on to make his major league debut in September 2021, and six months later he topped our 2022 Tampa Bay Top Prospects list. Then his elbow began barking. The right-hander subsequently underwent Tommy John surgery, and didn’t toe the rubber for the Rays between July 2022 and July of last year. He’s been solid since returning from his two-year recovery. Over 162 innings — including 82 2/3 this season — Baz has an 11-6 record to go with a 3.94 ERA.
What did Baz’s scouting report look like when he ranked third on our 2018 Pittsburgh Pirates Top Prospects list, which was published the previous December? Moreover, what does he think about it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what Eric Longenhagen wrote and asked Baz to respond to it.
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“Baz had among the most electric stuff in the 2017 draft. He was up to 98 in the spring, sitting in the mid-90s for most of his starts while also producing the best fastball spin rates in the draft class.”
“That was the big thing at the time,” replied Baz, who has made 15 starts and won seven of 10 decisions — albeit with a 4.79 ERA and 4.83 FIP — in the current campaign. “Everybody was talking about spin rate. I didn’t really know much about it, so I definitely wasn’t worried about it. I was mostly worried about trying to get the ball over the plate. But I do feel like I had good stuff when I got drafted. I was up to 97-98 [mph] and trying to live around 94-96. It was mostly about honing it in.”
“Baz can also spin a power breaking ball and throw a nasty cutter.”
“Yeah, I had a cutter at the time,” the righty recalled. “That’s a pitch I’ve kind of put in the back pocket, but it was a go-to back then, more so than my curveball was. My cutter kind of turned into a bigger slider, and now I’m throwing the curveball more.
“That happened more post-surgery,” Baz added. “I started throwing my curveball so hard that the two pitches were kind of running together. You want the one with more movement, so I stuck with the curveball.”
“Some scouts noted his heater was more hittable than they anticipated given its velocity.”
“At the time, probably,” the righty responded. “I mean, I don’t really remember how I pitched my first year of pro ball. It was awhile ago, so I don’t really know.”
“Baz is a tightly wound, but athletic, 6-foot-3 with a good build and room for more weight as he ages.”
“Yeah, I would say that trying to put on weight was a big thing at the time,” Baz said. “That and get stronger. I feel I’ve done a good job of that. I was probably 180 pounds when I came out of high school, and now I’m around 205 or 210. Another thing I was trying to do was working on making my delivery simple.”
“His head-whacking delivery toes the line between explosive and erratic, and he sometimes struggles to throw strikes.”
“That’s not too far off,” the Houston-born hurler said. “It’s gotten a lot better. Obviously, the more consistent you can make your delivery, the more you’re going to command the ball. So yeah, I would say that was accurate at the time. I did have [a head whack]. Back then, I just wanted to throw as hard as I could. I didn’t care about things like longevity, consistency, or the delivery.”
“That will need to improve for Baz to avoid an eventual move to the bullpen… Even if that’s where Baz ends up, his stuff is such that he’s a likely late-inning arm.”
“I think any way I could have gotten to the big leagues, I would have done it,” Baz said. “I was a catcher as a sophomore. I mean, growing up I was always told to try to help the team win in any way I can. That’s how I’ve always looked at it.”
“Baz also played the infield in high school.”
“I was told that as a position player I could go somewhere around rounds three to five,” recalled Baz, who bypassed a commitment to Texas Christian University to sign with the Pirates. “I didn’t know what I wanted to do. I was going to go to college as a two-way player. I don’t know where I would have ended up playing. I mostly played infield in high school, but with the arm and the speed, I probably would have ended up in the outfield.
“I took the two-way thing seriously. It was back before [Shohei] Ohtani and [Michael] Lorenzen — guys like that who could do both — but I definitely thought about it. But not a lot of teams wanted both, even to try doing both, so I decided to just stick to pitching. Would I do it now? I think that ship has sailed at this point.”
Max Scherzer was an early adoptee of analytics. When I first interviewed him for Baseball Prospectus back in August 2010, the right-hander called himself “a very mathematical guy,” adding that “the advanced metrics that are coming out throughout the game… have helped me to understand and simplify the game.”
Fifteen years later, Scherzer is an elder statesmen — and a three-time Cy Young Award winner — who approaches his craft differently than he once did. That’s not to say he no longer values analytics — he does — but a decade and a half of facing big league hitters has altered his perspective. (He addressed that evolution in an interview that ran here at FanGraphs two summer ago.) Now with the Toronto Blue Jays and on the back stretch of a career that should land him in Cooperstown, the 40-year-old Scherzer highly values an aspect of pitching that can’t be quantified.
The subject at hand was one he volunteered. Knowing Scherzer possesses both a wealth of pitching knowledge and well-formed opinions, I approached him with an open-ended question: What should we talk about?
Here is the conversation that followed, edited lightly for better clarity.
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David Laurila: You mentioned conviction…
Max Scherzer: “Yes. Guys now are flooded with information, and what they really need to be doing is going out there and competing, and understanding that when you do get beat, it’s not the shape of the pitch. It’s actually the sequence, or the conviction, or it could be 1,000 other things. Talking to lot of young guys, that’s what they care about, their pitch shapes. There’s so much more to pitching than that. Those are the discussions we need to have with the next generation.”
Laurila: Is there are a relationship between shapes and conviction? Do pitches that aren’t thrown with full conviction tend to be less sharp? Read the rest of this entry »
Mason Englert throws an array of pitches. The 25-year-old right-hander’s repertoire comprises a four-seam fastball, a sinker, a changeup, a cutter/slider, a sweeper, a “big curveball,” and a “shorter version of the curveball.” He considers his changeup — utilized at a 31.6% clip over his 13 relief appearances with the Tampa Bay Rays — to be his best pitch. More on that in a moment.
Englert, whom the Rays acquired from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for Drew Sommers back in February, will also break out the occasional… lets’s call it a baby curveball.
“I threw a few that were around 60 mph when I was in Durham,” explained Englert, whose campaign includes nine outings and a 1.84 ERA for Tampa’s Triple-A affiliate. “One of them was to the best man in my wedding. It was the first time I’d faced him in a real at-bat, and I just wanted to make him laugh.”
The prelude to Englert’s throwing a baby curveball to his close friend came a handful of weeks earlier. Back and forth between the Bulls and the bigs this season, he was at the time throwing in the bullpen at Yankee Stadium.
”I was totally messing around and wanted to see what kind of reaction I could get from Snydes (Rays pitching coach Kyle Snyder),” recalled Englert, whose major-league ledger this year includes a 4.84 ERA and a much-better 2.93 FIP. “I lobbed it in there, kind of like the [Zack] Greinke-style curveball, and landed it. I thought he would laugh it off, but instead Snydes goes, ‘Huh. You could maybe use that early in counts to some lefties.’ That was him having an openness to, ‘Hey, make the ball move different ways, do different things, use them all.’” Read the rest of this entry »
Most former players remember details about personal milestones. A hitter can typically tell you where, and against whom, he recorded his first hit and home run. Ditto for details about an especially meaningful moment, perhaps a pennant-clinching double, or even a game-deciding grand slam against a bona fide ace. The same goes for pitchers. Ask them about their first win, their first strikeout — even their first home run allowed — and they can rattle off an answer without much effort. How many Ws were they credited with over the course of their career? Piece of cake.
Other questions aren’t so easy. With that in mind, I challenged former Kansas City Royals (and briefly Anaheim Angels) right-hander Mark Gubicza to a quiz. The now-Angels broadcaster wasn’t deterred when I warned him my questions weren’t going to be layups. Gubicza, who pitched in 384 games from 1984-1997, agreed to give it a shot.
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The first question I asked the former All-Star was which batter he faced the most times. Gubicza guessed Kirby Puckett. Nope. His second guess, Jose Canseco, was likewise incorrect. I informed him the correct answer: Wade Boggs.
“I should have remembered that,” replied Gubicza, who squared off against the five-time batting champion 97 times. (Puckett was close behind at 92, while Canseco was further down the list at 60.) “He hit about .387 against me, or something like that.”
The hurler-turned-analyst got two of those three digits right. Boggs batted .367 against him, going 29-for-79 while also drawing 17 walks and lofting a sacrifice fly.
Max Fried is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Now in his ninth big league season, and his first with the New York Yankees after eight with the Atlanta Braves, the 31-year-old southpaw is 9-2 with a 1.89 ERA over 95 innings. His career marks are impressive as well. Since debuting in August 2017, Fried has a 2.96 ERA and 3.25 FIP to go with a sparkling 82-38 record. His .683 winning percentage ranks behind only Clayton Kershaw (.695) among active pitchers with at least 100 decisions.
When our 2015 Atlanta Braves Top Prospect list was published in January of that year, Fried was coming off a 2014 season that saw him miss the first three months with forearm soreness and throw just 10 2/3 innings in the low minors before undergoing Tommy John surgery in July. Acquired by Atlanta from the San Diego Padres shortly before our list went up, the seventh overall pick in the 2012 draft was ranked third in the Braves system by Kiley McDaniel, then our lead prospect analyst.
What did Fried’s 2015 FanGraphs scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think about it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what McDaniel wrote and asked Fried to respond to it.
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“The 6-foot-4, 185 pound lefty was half of what may have been the best one-two punch in high school baseball history, with Nationals top prospect RHP Lucas Giolito at Harvard Westlake High School in 2012.”
“It was definitely a good little thing,” replied Fried. “It didn’t mention that Jack Flaherty was in there, too. He was probably a better performer in high school than both of us. His stats blew mine and Lucas’ out of the water.”
“Scouts were concerned going into the 2012 draft spring about the unusually high volume of pitches with limited down time on the high school’s pitching program.”Read the rest of this entry »
Jake Mangum is impressing as a 29-year-old rookie. Seven years after being drafted by the New York Mets out of Mississippi State University following four collegiate seasons, the switch-hitting outfielder has slashed .303/.346/.370 with a 109 wRC+ over 128 plate appearances with the Tampa Bay Rays. Moreover, Mangum has swiped 10 bags without being caught.
His path to pro ball included being bypassed in the draft out of high school, then opting not to sign after being a low-round pick following his sophomore and junior seasons. One of the teams that called his name didn’t make an offer so much as wish him well. “Good luck with school next year,” was their message to the high-average, low-power Bulldog.
Mangum went to finish his college career with a .357/.420/.457 slash line, as well as a Southeastern Conference-record 383 hits. He also finished with a degree in business administration — although that’s not something he expects to take advantage of down the road. Paying days have a shelf life, but he plans to “stay around the game forever.”
A lack of balls over fences contributed heavily to the limited interest he received from scouts. When he finally inked a contract, the 2019 fourth-rounder had gone deep just five times in 1,200 plate appearances.
“It was always the power piece,” explained Mangum, whose ledger now includes 24 home runs in the minors and one in the majors. “They just didn’t see it playing in professional baseball, my not having enough power. I’m stronger now, but to be honest with you, I don’t try to hit home runs. I try to hit for a high average and help the team with good defense and base running.”
