Jace Jung is following in his brother’s footsteps, albeit via a distinctly different path. Unlike his older sibling, Texas Rangers 2023 rookie standout Josh Jung, the 23-year-old Detroit Tigers infield prospect isn’t a self-professed hitting nerd. Which isn’t to suggest he lacks the skills needed to one day wield an impact bat at the big league level. A top prospect in a solid Detroit system, the younger Jung is coming off of a first full professional season where he slashed .265/.376/.502 with 28 home runs and a 143 wRC+ between High-A West Michigan and Double-A Erie.

His left-handed stroke has long been his calling card. A three-year stalwart at Texas Tech University — the same school Josh attended — Jace put up an 1.116 OPS as a collegian before being taken 12th overall by the Tigers in the 2022 draft. That he’s continued to bash in pro ball is anything but a surprise. Possessing a plus power profile, he is in many ways a mirror image of his right-handed-hitting brother, though again, not when it comes to having an analytic approach to the craft. As he explained to me late in the Arizona Fall League season, Jace is a proponent of keeping things as simple as possible.

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David Laurila: Your brother told me that you’re not nearly as much of a hitting nerd as he is. How much do you study hitting?

Jace Jung: “I’ve actually gotten into it a lot more this year, trying to figure out what pitchers’ pitches do. At the same time, when I get up to the plate, I mostly just trust my swing. I know that what it comes down to for me is rhythm and timing. So really, I try to keep it as simple as possible when I get up there. I just try to hit the baseball.” Read the rest of this entry »

Billy Wagner has a chance to be voted into the Hall of Fame this year. As I type these words on Saturday evening, the erstwhile left-handed reliever — this in his penultimate appearance on the BBWAA ballot — is polling at 80.0% with nearly half of the electorate having disclosed their choices. If he finishes at or above the 75% threshold required for induction he will become the ninth closer enshrined in Cooperstown.

Many will argue that closers — at least not those named Mariano Rivera — don’t belong in the Hall of Fame. The reasoning, by and large, is lack of innings thrown (Wagner has just 903), which factors into comparably low WAR totals (Rivera has 38.6, whereas workmanlike starters such as Kenny Rogers and John Lackey are north of 40). Add in a rule that allows for what might be deemed “cheap saves” and the argument against closers is understandable.

Personally, I don’t think there are enough closers in the Hall of Fame. It’s not as though the role isn’t important, and it certainly isn’t recent. The first 15-save season came exactly 100 years ago, with Firpo Marberry doing the honors with the Washington Senators (the right-hander added two more saves in that year’s World Series). Marberry subsequently logged the first 20-save season in 1926, and by career’s end he’d led the American League in saves and appearances six times each. Marberry isn’t in the Hall of Fame, but when you factor in his historical significance — ditto his higher JAWS score than all of Rollie Fingers, Lee Smith, and Bruce Sutter — he arguably should be.

If a “closer” with Marberry’s statistical résumé — he finished with 99 saves and 148 wins (56 of them as a reliever) — could be deemed Hall-worthy, what about a Wagner contemporary like John Franco? While not as overpowering as Wagner, Franco did amass 424 saves — two more than the on-the-doorstep Hall of Famer’s total, and the most ever for a southpaw. Moreover, it ranks fifth-most all-time, while his 1,119 appearances ranks third-most. With the caveat that JAWS isn’t bullish on his credentials, Franco presents an intriguing case. Read the rest of this entry »

Jacob Hurtubise quietly had one of the best seasons in the minors in 2023. Over 455 plate appearances between Double-A Chattanooga and Triple-A Louisville, the left-handed-hitting outfielder slashed .330/.479/.483 with 11 doubles, 10 triples, seven home runs, and a 163 wRC+. Moreover, he had a 13.8% strikeout rate and a 16.9% walk rate to go with 45 stolen bases. Signed by the Cincinnati Reds as an undrafted free agent in 2020 after four collegiate seasons at Army, the West Point graduate is arguably one of the more intriguing position player prospects in the system.

A lack of power is Hurtibise’s biggest shortcoming, but that’s not what his game is built on. As the 26-year-old Zionsville, Indiana native readily acknowledges, what he brings to the table is a combination of plus bat-to-ball skills, a keen eye, and excellent wheels. His profile is that of a potential top-of-the-order OBP machine, one who just so happens to be a high-character overachiever knocking on the door of the big leagues.

Hurtubise, who was added to Cincinnati’s 40-man roster last November, talked hitting late in the Arizona Fall League season.

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David Laurila: Your OBP has been well over .400 since you got to pro ball, and this past season it was a remarkable .479. To what do you attribute those numbers?

Jacob Hurtubise: “I think it just comes down to having a solid approach. I’ve been gifted with a good eye, and that’s been improved through repetitions and continuing to be patient at the plate. Knowing who I am as a hitter is a big part of that. I know my job. I don’t have a ton of power, so I have to do whatever I can to get on base, and from there create havoc on the basepaths.” Read the rest of this entry »

Graham Pauley emerged as one of the most promising hitting prospects in the San Diego Padres system this past season. Selected in the 13th round of the 2022 draft out of Duke University, the 23-year-old left-handed-hitting third baseman slashed .308/.393/.539 with 23 home runs and an organization-best 152 wRC+ across Low-A Lake Elsinore, High-A Fort Wayne, and Double-A San Antonio.

Count Eric Longenhagen among those bullish on his potential with the bat. Earlier this month, our lead prospect analyst wrote that Pauley’s swing “is gorgeous — it often looks like a mini version of Corey Seager‘s cut, completely connected from the ground up.” He assigned Pauley a 45 FV, along with a 45/50 hit tool grade and a 50/55 game power grade.

Pauley talked hitting late in the Arizona Fall League season.

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David Laurila: You put up some pretty impressive numbers this year. What do you attribute that to?

Graham Pauley: “I credit it to the Padres, but also to myself for putting in the work, day in and day out. Being a 13th rounder, you also don’t have a ton of expectations, so you can kind of go into it with a free spirit. Over the course of my time here — ever since being drafted, including throughout this year — I feel that I’ve gotten better. Minor swing changes, getting stronger, being more agile. That’s all helped and gotten me to where I am today.” Read the rest of this entry »

Troy Taylor is an under-the-radar pitcher to keep your eye on in the Seattle Mariners system. A 22-year-old right-hander who was taken in the 12th round of the 2022 draft out of the University of California Irvine, Taylor impressed evaluators in the Arizona Fall League with a two-pitch mix that has him well-positioned for a future role as a big-league reliever.

“I’m a big fan of what he can do athletically, as a mover,” said a scout I spoke to. “His stuff is good. He’s a guy who probably ends up in the bullpen with the Mariners, and sooner rather than later.”

He’s already come a long way. Taylor was an infielder at Rancho Cucamonga’s Los Osos High School, and when he did occasionally take the mound — “I closed a couple of times” — all he really did was throw as hard he could. It wasn’t until he got to Cyprus Junior College, and then to UC-Irvine, that he “actually started learning how to pitch.”

Taylor has understandably learned a lot more about the nuances of his craft since signing with Seattle, but he nonetheless remains anything but a technician. Topping out at 98 mph and typically averaging “five and some change,” he still tries to throw his heater as hard as he can. He identifies as a power pitcher.

Adding a third pitch is a goal — the Mariners have him working on a changeup to use against left-handed hitters — but his fastball-slider combination will always be his bread and butter. The former is not only his best pitch, it has unique characteristics. Read the rest of this entry »

The San Francisco Giants drafted Reggie Crawford as a two-way player, and so far they’ve allowed the 30th-overall pick in the 2022 draft to continue to both pitch and swing the bat. How much longer that will be the case remains to be seen, with the forthcoming season likely going a long way toward determining an answer. To this point, Crawford has had scant opportunity to do either. Thanks largely to Tommy John surgery, the 6-foot-4, 235-pound University of Connecticut product has logged just 19 innings and 111 plate appearances (71 of them in the Arizona Fall League) since signing a professional contract.

Eric Longenhagen described the left-left hurler/first-baseman as “a prospect of extreme variance” and “still more a developmental project than anything else” when assigning him a 40+ FV midway through last summer. That both his hitting and pitching potential factor into our lead prospect analyst’s assessment makes Crawford arguably the most intriguing young player in the Giants’ pipeline. If he performs capably on both sides in 2024, he’ll be among the most intriguing young players in baseball.

Crawford discussed his two-way aspirations in the final week of the Arizona Fall League season.

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David Laurila: To start, I’m interested in your thoughts on someone you’ve been playing against here in the Fall League. Carson Williams was highly regarded as a two-way player in high school, but has only played shortstop since Tampa Bay drafted him 28th overall in 2021. Could you see him succeeding at both in pro ball?

Reggie Crawford: “Oh, I’d imagine so. It just comes down to… I mean, for me the planning and the scheduling is probably the most difficult part. Someone who is that athletic and has those sets of tools, I don’t see why he wouldn’t be able to.” Read the rest of this entry »

The 2009 MLB draft was notable for numerous reasons, not the least of which was Mike Trout lasting until the 25th overall pick, where the Los Angeles Angels snagged him in one of the biggest steals in draft history. The Arizona Diamondbacks missed out on a pair of opportunities to take the future Hall of Famer — they picked back-to-back at 16 and 17 — and misfired on a few of their higher-round selections as well. Which isn’t to say they had a bad draft — anything but. Not only did a dozen of the players the D-backs drafted and signed go on to reach the big leagues, one of them was arguably as big of a steal as Trout. In the eighth round, with the 246th overall pick, they took Paul Goldschmidt out of Texas State University.

Tom Allison was the lead architect of Arizona’s 2009 draft. Serving as the club’s amateur scouting director under general manager Josh Byrnes, he not only oversaw the Goldschmidt pick, but also the selections of AJ Pollock, Chase Anderson, and Matt Davidson. There were disappointments — taking Bobby Borchering at 16 didn’t work out the way Arizona hoped — but that goes with the territory. The amateur draft is an inexact art, and a mix of hits and misses is inevitable, which is something a longtime scout like Allison knows all too well. Now a special assignment scout with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Allison addressed that very subject when looking back on 2009.

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David Laurila: To the extent that a draft can be predictable, did things more or less go as you expected, or were there a lot of curveballs? Your club obviously had a number of extra picks early on.

Tom Allison: “First, it’s always great looking back at drafts, especially ones that had so many of these different outcomes. But that’s a great question. With those extra picks, we had the attention of the agents and advisors. They knew that, ‘OK, the Diamondbacks are interested and we have an opportunity to get them in there.’ That presented itself a lot of times with accessibility, which is really impactful. We had pre-draft workouts. We were in a different timeframe than we are now — it was a non-Combine time — so having a pre-draft workout was a big thing. Read the rest of this entry »

Victor Scott II has received a lot of attention lately, and for good reason. The 22-year-old outfielder swiped 94 bases this past season between High- and Double-A, then added 18 more representing the St. Louis Cardinals in the Arizona Fall League. Moreover, his left-handed stroke produced a .303/.369/.425 slash line over 618 plate appearances against Midwest League and Texas League pitching. Flying below the radar when he was taken in the fifth round of the 2022 draft out of West Virginia University, the speedster is now widely viewed as one of the most promising players in the Cardinals’ pipeline.

The focus the Atlanta native has received lately has understandably centered on his plus-plus wheels and his improved hit tool. Neither of those subjects was broached when I spoke to Scott over the phone in early December — this a few weeks before he graduated from WVU with a degree in Interdisciplinary Studies. Instead, we discussed his burgeoning music career. Scott is not only on the fast track to the big leagues, he is also an accomplished rapper.

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David Laurila: You’ve recorded a number of rap songs. Tell me about that.

Victor Scott II: “It’s something I can’t really do in-season, and I couldn’t really do at school, because I didn’t have a studio. Here at home, I can get in there with Quinn Carter — one of my best friends from back in the day — to kind of hang out and make music. It’s therapeutic. It allows me to get whatever off my mind, and also to be imaginative. It’s a cool little outlet, man. It’s great.” Read the rest of this entry »

Kala’i Rosario won the Arizona Fall League’s Home Run Derby this past November, and he did so in impressive fashion. Not only did the 21-year-old Minnesota Twins outfield prospect pummel a total of 25 baseballs over the fence at Mesa’s Sloan Park, the longest of them traveled a power hitter-ish 465 feet. By and large, that is what Rosario’s game is all about. As Eric Longenhagen pointed out last summer, the 6-foot, 212-pound Papaikou, Hawaii native had previously won the 2019 Area Code Games Home Run Derby and he “swings with incredible force and has big raw power for his age.”

Rosario’s setup in the box stood out to me as much as his ability to bludgeon baseballs when I watched him capture the AFL’s derby crown. The right-handed hitter not only had his feet spread wide, he had next to no stride. I asked him about that following his finals victory over Toronto Blue Jays infield prospect Damiano Palmegiani.

“Tonight my setup was a little different, but in games I usually do a small stride, so it wasn’t a big difference,” Rosario told me. “I have power already, so I don’t lock into my coil too much. When I get into the box I kind of preset everything, and from there it’s just letting my hands do the work.”

Improving his contact skills is both a goal and a necessity for the slugger. Rosario had a 29.6% strikeout rate to go with his .252/.364/.467 slash line and 21 home runs in 530 plate appearances with High-A Cedar Rapids. As Longenhagen also opined in his midseason writeup, Rosario’s “high-effort swing has zero precision.” Widening out and shortening up have been part of his effort to alleviate that issue. Read the rest of this entry »

Billy Cook is flying well below the radar in the Baltimore Orioles organization. That’s understandable. The 2023 American League East champions continue to boast one of the top farm systems in baseball, and Cook is a soon-to-turn-25-year-old outfielder/infielder out of Pepperdine University who lasted until the 10th round of the 2021 draft. Moreover, while he went deep a team-best 24 times this past season with Double-A Bowie, it’s easy to be overshadowed when your teammates include high-profile first-rounders such as Jackson Holliday and Heston Kjerstad, as well as highly regarded slugger Coby Mayo and, at year’s end, fast-rising backstop Samuel Basallo.

Those things said, Cook has a lot to prove. His numbers with Bowie were solid but unspectacular, posting a .251/.320/.456 line and a 110 wRC+. Moreover, while his 25% strikeout rate was an improvement from the previous year, he’ll likely need to further hone his contact skills if he hopes to beat the odds and wear a big league uniform. Given his age and utility profile, he remains more project than prospect — especially within a system with no shortage of blue chippers.

Cook discussed his game, and dark horse status, at the tail end of the Arizona Fall League season, which saw him log an .818 OPS with the Mesa Solar Sox.

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David Laurila: You hit 24 home runs this year, but outside of that, I don’t know a lot about you. How would you describe your game?

Billy Cook: “I’m working on my complete game. I think the power has always been there, and then there are the stolen bases [30 in 33 attempts in 2023]. I have speed. When I don’t get into my power, I can get away with a little soft contact here and there by beating out a groundball. But I do want to hit the ball in the air. This offseason I’ll be working on turning the hard groundballs into doubles, putting them into the gaps instead of hitting super low line drives. That’s pretty much it with the offense. Defensively, I’m trying to be that utility guy, someone who is able to play anywhere to keep the bat in the lineup.” Read the rest of this entry »