Last Sunday’s column included my opining that Joey Votto should retire rather than sign with a team other than the Cincinnati Reds, thus making him a one-franchise player. My friend Sam — a bona fide baseball nerd — read the column and proceeded to share an interesting thought when I ran into him at the coffee shop we both frequent. Being of the belief that players sticking with one team is a good thing — I think most fans would concur — Sam wonders if tweaking the Competitive Balance Tax in a manner that would incentivize teams’ ability to re-sign their free agents might be possible. For instance, if player X were to sign a one-year $20M contract with a new team, the entire amount would factor into the team’s payroll. Conversely, if Player X re-signed with his old team, a lesser amount ($10M?) would count toward it.

Sam didn’t mention Mookie Betts, but he may well have had him in mind. With their superstar outfielder one year away from free agency, and the CBT an acknowledged factor, the Red Sox traded Betts, along with David Price, to the Dodgers, thereby slashing over $40M from their forthcoming 2020 payroll. The deal put them a reported $18M below the threshold. Whether or not Betts would have opted to re-sign with Boston is another question, but the CBT clearly played a role in his departure.

Ben Clemens brought up basketball’s “Bird Rights” as a parallel when I asked for his thoughts on Sam’s idea. As my colleague pointed out, NBA teams get to exempt hometown stars from the salary cap in some situations. Of course, MLB doesn’t have a ceiling. Nor does it have a floor, which further complicates the issue. Read the rest of this entry »

Craig Breslow is restructuring the Red Sox pitching program. Hired in October to replace Chaim Bloom as Boston’s Chief Baseball Officer, the 43-year-old erstwhile reliever is doing so in multiple ways, and that includes having effectively cloned himself with a Twin. Earlier this month, Boston’s new top executive lured Justin Willard away from Minnesota to be the team’s Director of Pitching — the same role Breslow held in Chicago when he worked to revamp the Cubs’ pitching development process just a few years ago.

That Breslow’s approach is largely data-driven and comes with an adherence to bat-missing qualities is a big reason why Willard was brought on board. Much like the Yale graduate who hired him, Willard — a former college hurler with an MBA from Radford University — is both well-versed in analytics and an advocate of arsenals rife with plus raw stuff. Read the rest of this entry »

Jed Bradley had just walked away from baseball when I featured him here at FanGraphs in May 2017. Six years removed from being a first-round draft pick, and seven-plus months after making the last of his half dozen big-league pitching appearances, the southpaw had decided that he “wasn’t happy doing it anymore, and life is too short to do something that doesn’t make you happy.” At age 26, Bradley set out to write the next chapter in his life.

Term papers followed, but so too did one last attempt to resurrect what had once been a promising career. Despite a still-balky shoulder that had factored into his farewell, the erstwhile 15th-overall pick couldn’t help but give the game he loves another shot.

“I had every intention of moving on with my life and never looking back,” recalled Bradley, who has since earned a law degree and is now a corporate attorney. “I re-entered college at Georgia Tech — the first time in over two decades I was outside of baseball entirely — and the hiatus lasted approximately three months before I found myself watching old World Series games on Youtube and following the latest trade rumors. Soon I was researching the efficacy of stem cells on shoulder injuries. I ended up flying to south Florida for stem cell injections, and from there I was driving to rehab sessions after classes trying to get my arm back in shape.”

Bradley graduated from business school, but the corporate world would have to wait. Armed with last-hope inspiration, he spent that summer on the mound for the New Britain Bees of the independent Atlantic League. Read the rest of this entry »

The Kansas City Royals had a disappointing season in J.J. Picollo’s first year as the team’s Executive Vice President/General Manager. Hampered by injuries and the underperformance of numerous promising young players, the AL Central club finished in last place with a dreadful 56-106 record. As Dayton Moore’s replacement — Picollo was promoted to the position on September 21, 2022 — told me during last month’s GM meetings, much more was expected.

My conversation with the Royals’ top executive came almost exactly a year after I first spoke to him about the vision he had for the team. I was curious about two things. First, how has the revamped pitching program we discussed in November 2022 progressed? Second, how does he view his first year on the job?

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David Laurila: We talked about your vision for the team, including the pitching development process, at last year’s GM Meetings. Have things gone pretty much as expected?

J.J. Picollo: “There is more to it than you realize. As much as you think you might be prepared for the lead role, you’re learning along the way all the time. Being able to make decisions quickly, and being able to communicate effectively across all departments in the organization, was a challenge. Looking back on it, last year we were heavily involved with our managerial search [and] a new pitching coach. The entire fall, right up to Christmas, we were hiring. We shared the vision of the organization in different ways.

“If I had to do it over again, we would have had organizational meetings in January. We’d have had that large group gathering so that the communication was clear on what we’re about and what we’re trying to accomplish. This year we did that. We actually did that the week after the season ended, so I feel a lot better about this offseason. I feel like it’s going to slow things down a little bit more this year. But again, there are a lot of things involved in this job. It’s a very different position than being an assistant.” Read the rest of this entry »

Dasan Brown exudes energy, athleticism, and defensive acumen in the outfield. Drafted 88th overall in 2019 — two picks in front of Spencer Steer and 10 in front of Michael Harris II — the 22-year-old Oakville, Ontario, Canada native is coming off of a disappointing season with the stick. In 463 plate appearances with High-A Vancouver, the left-handed speedster slashed just .218/.309/.315 with seven home runs and a 74 wRC+. He did fare better in the Arizona Fall League; flashing more of his potential, he batted a solid .274 with a .342 OBP. Between the regular season and his Surprise Saguaros stint, he swiped 30 bags.

Brown, who is ranked 23rd on our 2024 Blue Jays list with a 40 FV, discussed his skill set following the AFL’s Fall Stars Game.

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David Laurila: Defense is your strong suit. Is that accurate?

Dasan Brown: “Yeah. I mean, that’s what’s come most naturally to me. As a kid, I just wanted to go get baseballs. As I got older, I learned the skill part of it. I’ve gotten some good coaching here and there, but overall it’s just an instinct. It’s trusting myself out there. I kind of have fun with it. I see the ball up in the air and go get it.” Read the rest of this entry »

Bob Melvin feels that the San Francisco Giants could use more star power. Hearing the team’s new manager say as much when he met with the media in Nashville earlier this week prompted a question from yours truly. Prefacing it by pointing out that the San Diego Padres team he led last year had no shortage of it, I asked the veteran skipper if it is possible to have too much “star power.”

“Not necessarily,” replied Melvin, whose 2023 Padres underachieved to the tune of an 82-80 record. “It just depends on the makeup. Look, the year before we went to the NLCS in my first year there. Last year was a disappointing season, but I don’t think there’s anything to make of it being a poor year because there was too much star power. They have some really good players there, it just didn’t work out as well.

“I am big on incorporating,” Melvin added. “I think everybody needs a role and everybody needs to feel they’re a part of it. That makes for a much better clubhouse. Everybody feels they’re important. There’s an enthusiasm to that. I think there’s a place for both.”

Scott Harris largely agrees with Melvin. When the subject of impact free agents such as Shohei Ohtani came up, I asked Detroit’s President of Baseball Operations the same question that I’d asked his San Francisco contemporary. Read the rest of this entry »

Lucas Giolito is one of the more intriguing free-agent pitchers currently on the market. Still just 29 years old, the veteran right-hander is coming off of a sub-par season — a 4.88 ERA and a 5.27 FIP for three different clubs — but his overall resume is that of a solid big league starter who reliably takes the mound every five days. His 947 innings pitched over the last six seasons are eighth-most in MLB, and his 167 starts are tied for fifth-most. All told, he has a 4.43 ERA, a 4.44 FIP, and a 25.3% strikeout rate since debuting with the Nationals in 2016. His best season was 2019, when he went 14–9 with a 3.41 ERA, a 3.43 FIP, a 32.3% strikeout rate, and 5.2 WAR with the White Sox.

With his pending free agency in mind, I approached Giolito in early September — a day after he’d made his first of six appearances with the Guardians — to talk about where he’s at in his career.

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David Laurila: I first interviewed you in 2017. How would you describe your evolution as a pitcher since that time?

Lucas Giolito: “Unfortunately, it hasn’t been going in a good direction recently. As for how I’ve evolved, I definitely use the slider more. The longer you’ve been in the league, the more guys get used to you, and sometimes the changeup is working great and sometimes it isn’t. Up until 2021, I was pretty much a two-pitch guy. I had a slider for show, but it was mainly fastball-changeup. That was effective for me, whereas now guys will sometimes sit on the changeup. Having that slider to go in the other direction, I can show a different look, especially to righties.”

Laurila: Do you feel that your changeup is as good now as it was in your best seasons? I’m thinking primarily about movement profile and speed differential.

Giolito: “That’s interesting. I think it’s pretty much the same. The thing is, in ’19 and ’20, when I used it a lot and it was really effective, I didn’t actually pay much attention to the metrics on it. So it’s really hard to say. I do know that the velocity is pretty much the same.” Read the rest of this entry »

The St. Louis Cardinals were one of baseball’s most disappointing teams in 2023. Favored to win the NL Central, they instead finished with just 71 wins and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2018. Moreover, the losing record was wholly unfamiliar territory. Since John Mozeliak was appointed GM prior to the 2008 season (his title is now President of Baseball Operations), the Cardinals had had nothing but winning records under his watch. They reached the postseason in 10 of those seasons and twice advanced to the World Series, capturing the franchise’s 11th modern-era title in 2011.

To say that St. Louis has had sustained success under Mozeliak would be stating the obvious. Ditto that “The Cardinals Way” — the catchphrase champions the club’s adherence to fundamentals and its player development acumen — has paid dividends on a consistent basis.

What does it mean when sustained success suddenly hits a roadblock? In the Cardinals’ current case, does it represent an anomaly? Was 2023 simply a blip, or is there a need for Mozeliak’s team to change its processes in any way? I asked that question of the executive during last month’s GM meetings.

“I think it would be somewhat foolish to just approach this past year as, ‘Oh, odds have it that you’re going to lose, so it happened,’” replied Mozeliak. “You can learn from some things that happened last year. I hope everybody who is involved in this is having that reflection moment and trying to understand what we could have done differently, what we should have done differently, and what we will do differently going forward.”

Asked if he could share specifics, Mozeliak said that while some have been identified, he preferred not to call any of them out, lest he “make anybody feel bad.” He did say that he was willing to call himself out. “Adding more pitching prior going into camp, would have, in hindsight, made more sense” was the mea culpa he chose to share. Read the rest of this entry »

Justice Bigbie has gone from a 19th-round draft pick to one of the most promising prospects in the Detroit Tigers system in just two years time. Taken 555th overall in 2021 out of Western Carolina University, the 6-foot-3, 215-pound corner outfielder is coming off his second full professional season, during which he slashed .343/.405/.537 with 19 home runs in 485 plate appearances across High-A West Michigan, Double-A Erie, and Triple-A Toledo. The 24-year-old’s 157 wRC+ was tied for seventh highest among all minor leaguers with at least 400 PA.

Bigbie talked hitting, with a primary focus on high-velocity training, at the conclusion of the Arizona Fall League season, which saw him log a .749 OPS with the Salt River Rafters.

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David Laurila: In some respects, you came out of nowhere in putting up big numbers this year. On the other hand, your overall track record (which includes a .350/.426/.539 slash line in four collegiate seasons) is that of someone who has always hit. In your mind, did you actually take a huge step forward, or did you mostly just do what you’ve always done?

Justice Bigbie: “I mean, I don’t want to say that I continued to do what I always do. I try to continue to improve, continue to get better each day, and I feel like I’ve done that since getting my first taste of pro ball in 2021. I’m continuously making tweaks to my swing and improving what I can improve on. I think that’s contributed to the success I had this past year.” Read the rest of this entry »

Blaze Jordan quietly put together one of the best seasons in the Red Sox minor league system this year. Overshadowed by higher profile prospects such as Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, and Ceddanne Rafaela, the 20-year-old corner infielder slashed .296/.351/.481 with a 124 wRC+ and 18 home runs between High-A Greenville and Double-A Portland. Moreover, his 141 hits and 32 doubles were both tops among Boston farmhands. That he fanned in just 14.3% of his 525 plate appearances is also notable, although that does come with a caveat: His 7.6% walk rate was less than ideal.

Jordan’s profile coming into pro ball was that of a slugger. As our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen wrote after the Red Sox selected him in the third round of the 2020 draft out of Southaven, Mississippi’s DeSoto Central High School, “Jordan had some of the best power in the class.” That would be an understatement. The now 6-foot-2, 210-pound right-handed hitter won the High School Home Run Derby in Cleveland at the 2019 All-Star Game, and he was reportedly called “a young Bob Horner” by a scout who had seen him punish baseballs in a prep tournament.

That Jordan’s power output in pro ball — 36 dingers in 1,160 PAs — has been comparatively modest is at once concerning and a sign of age-appropriate developmental goals. Just shy of the legal drinking age, he doesn’t aspire to be an all-or-nothing basher. Read the rest of this entry »