Sunday Notes: A Hall of Fame Ballot (With a Notable Omission) Explained
This year I had the honor of filling out a Hall of Fame ballot for the fourth time, and as was the case with the previous three, I’m taking the time to explain my reasoning. This is something that I feel every voter should do. Filling out a ballot is a privilege that demands not only due diligence, but also transparency. That said, let’s cut to the chase.
My checkmarks went next to the names of 10 players — the maximum number allowed — seven of whom are holdovers from last year, and three of whom are new to the ballot. In alphabetical order, my votes went to Bobby Abreu, Carlos Beltrán, Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, Joe Mauer, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Chase Utley, and Billy Wagner.
Yes, Andruw Jones’s name is missing from that list. No, I am not particularly pleased by his non-inclusion. The erstwhile Atlanta Braves star had received my vote three times prior, and in a perfect world he would have again this year. But it’s not a perfect world. Again, only 10 checkmarks are allowed, and with three worthy newcomers joining eight holdovers from last year’s ballot, someone had to draw the short stick. Ultimately, I decided it would be Jones.
Who might I have dropped instead? That’s a question that would require more words to answer adequately than I have room for in this column, but I will say that a certain amount of strategic thinking went into the decision. As my esteemed colleague Jay Jaffe can attest, any thoughts of my omitting Gary Sheffield (currently polling at 71.9%) were dispelled with a reminder that this is his last year on the ballot. While the likelihood of Sheffield’s reaching the required 75% threshold isn’t high, it’s also not impossible. Conversely, Jones (currently at 62.5%, a few percentage points better than last year), has three more years of eligibility left beyond this cycle. I am likely to resume voting for him 12 months from now.
Two more things on Jones — both addressed by Jay in last month’s writeup of his candidacy — before I touch on my other choices. While acknowledging his defensive brilliance, I have long been skeptical of claims, metrics-based and otherwise, that he is the best-ever at his position, above the likes of Willie Mays, or even (yes, he belongs in the upper echelon) Kevin Kiermaier. And then there is the domestic violence issue. As Jay pointed out, Jones pled guilty to charges. The first of my four ballots included Omar Vizquel — a polarizing Hall of Fame candidate for other reasons as well — and I subsequently stopped voting for him due to his own domestic violence allegations. Respective Cooperstown-worthy bona fides aside, does Jones deserves a pass if Vizquel doesn’t?
Voting for the Hall of Fame isn’t as easy as comparing statistical accomplishments.
I will admittedly give short shrift to my other voting choices. The primary reason is that not only would I essentially be repeating my previous ballot-explainer comments — again, seven of my 10 checkmarks went to holdovers — I would largely be echoing what Jay wrote. For the most part, our opinions are simpatico. As for the three newcomers, Beltré is a no-brainer for obvious reasons; his numbers speak for themselves. Mauer — currently tracking at 82.1% — isn’t at the same level, but with three batting titles at the catcher position and an overall stellar resumé, he’s an easy choice.
And then there is Utley. If you’re small-Hall, and/or a traditionalist in terms of stats, he is a marginal candidate at best. That said, you’re reading this on FanGraphs, which significantly decreases the likelihood that you don’t understand just how good Utley was. Does that mean he’s a rubber-stamp in your opinion? Probably not. Hall of Fame-worthiness is anything but easy to determine, regardless of where you fall on the stat-geek spectrum. That includes Andruw Jones, who in this scribe’s opinion is worthy — albeit without this year’s vote due to the circumstances that be.
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RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS
Dick Allen went 9 for 15 against Doug Rau.
Jack Clark went 7 for 11 against Pete Vuckovich.
Moose Grimshaw went 8 for 15 against Happy Townsend.
George Altman went 9 for 14 against Don Newcombe.
Zack Wheat went 6 for 7 against Al Yeargin.
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Spencer Jones came in at No. 1 when our New York Yankees Top Prospects list was published on December 19th. And for good reason. As Eric Longenhagen opined in his writeup, the 25th-overall pick in the 2022 draft possesses “enormous potential, with eventual 40-homer power in the tank.” Our lead prospect analyst added — this with a caveat of high risk — “as far as ceilings go… we’re talking about St. Patrick’s Cathedral.”
Jones, who played his college ball at Vanderbilt University, came off as humble when I spoke to him following his promotion to Double-A Somerset in the later part of the season. Somewhat surprisingly, he downplayed his power when I asked him what he considers to be his greatest strength.
“I see myself as a speed guy more than anything,” the young outfielder replied “I feel like that’s my most valuable tool. Hitting and power… I feel like I’ve always been able to hit, but I haven’t always been a power hitter. For me, it’s about making contact, and good things happen when I put it in play.”
His numbers reflect his ability to run. Jones swiped 43 bags this year, augmenting a stat line that included 16 long balls and a 113 wRC+, as well as a 28.9% strikeout rate. Asked about his wheels, he told me that he is “twitchy for [his] size,” which he stated was currently 6-foot-7 and 235 pounds.
He has tweaked his stance and swing since getting to pro ball. Creating a shorter path to the ball has predictably been a priority for the tall slugger, and he’s done so by lowering his hands and getting his bat “a lot more vertical in the setup.”
Jones has received quality instruction since signing with the Yankees, but he maintains a strong relationship with the person who helped him build his foundation.
“I’ve had the same hitting coach since I was nine years old,” Jones told me. “He’s out in Encinitas [California] where I’m at. We go into the YMCA together and he’s been great. His name is Joe Pimentel. He worked with me when I was a little kid, and then in Little League — All-Stars and stuff like that.
”He was the first guy who taught me that my size is my advantage, that I can use my leverage and my physical tools as an advantage,” added Jones. “He’s all about efficient moves and making sure everything is patterning together. It’s not super technical, it’s more feel-based stuff. That’s how I was raised to hit.”
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A quiz:
Two players have stolen at least one base every year since 2009. Who are they?
The answer can be found below.
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NEWS NOTES
The Hall of Stats website, which debuted in 2012, officially shut down on December 28. Co-founder Adam Darowski wrote an explanatory column that can be found here.
The Detroit Tigers have reportedly hired Dylan Axelrod and assigned him the title Pitching Performance and Integration Coordinator. The 38-year-old former Chicago White Sox and Cincinnati Reds hurler has spent the last four seasons coaching in the Los Angeles Angels system.
Two former Detroit Tigers scouts have filed a lawsuit against the team, alleging that they were fired in 2020 due to age discrimination “amid a shift by the team and Major League Baseball toward younger scouts who use analytics and video to evaluate players.” (per The Detroit News.)
Carlos Pulido, a left-handed pitcher who saw action for the Minnesota Twins in 1994 and again in 2003 and 2004, died Thursday at age 52 (per Baseball Player Passings). Per his B-Ref bio page, the Caracas native was paired up against Wilson Alvarez of the Chicago White Sox on June 12, 1994 in what was the first game in MLB history that the starting pitchers from both teams were both from Venezuela. Pulito also pitched professionally in Mexico, Japan, and Taiwan.
Larry McCray, a prominent baseball historian whose primary focus was the game’s origins, died earlier this week. McCray received two of SABR’s highest honors in back-to-back years, the Henry Chadwick Award in 2017 and the Bob Davids Award in 2018.
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The answer to the quiz is Elvis Andrus and Andrew McCutchen. (hat tip to @BillyBall for the stat/fact.)
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Acquiring Estevan Florial from the New York Yankees in exchange for right-hander Cody Morris earlier this week has the makings of a shrewd move for the Cleveland Guardians. Morris has a good arm, but at age 27 and with a short-and-middling big-league resumé, he is less of a need than what Florial potentially provides. The Guardians badly need offensive oomph, and while the recently-turned-26-year-old left-handed-hitting outfielder is himself largely unproven, he did put a 130 wRC+ with 28 home runs and 25 stolen bases in Triple-A this past season. With the caveat that his handful of big-league cups of coffee have been wholly uninspiring, he retains enough upside that the move makes sense for a Cleveland club that struggled to score runs in 2023. Compared to the majority of teams, they possess enough pitching.
Eric Longenhagen will have more on the Morris-Florial swap in the coming days.
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Which of Bill Freehan, Thurman Munson, and Yadier Molina is most Hall of Fame-worthy? I asked that question regarding the three former catchers in a Twitter poll on Friday, and the results were more or less what I expected them to be. Along with being recency-biased, they were very much debatable.
Molina won the poll easily, garnering a healthy 57.3% of the 1,293 votes cast while Munson finished second with 31.9% and Freehan received a mere 10.8%.
Here is a snapshot of their respective numbers and awards:
Freehan: 1,591 hits, 200 HRs, 113 wRC+, 44.8 bWAR, five Gold Gloves, 11 All-Star appearances.
Molina: 2,168 hits, 176 HRs, 97 wRC+, 42.3 bWAR, nine Gold Gloves,10 All-Star appearances.
Munson: 1,558 hits, 113 HRs, 116 wRC+, 46.1 bWAR, three Gold Gloves, seven All-Star appearances.
Note that the above WAR totals are bWAR and fWAR. The latter includes framing — a Molina strength — whereas both Freehan (1961-1976) and Munson (1969-1979) played prior to framing being measured. By and large, comparing catcher WAR over eras is a tenuous exercise. That said, Molina’s edge in fWAR is clear, 55.6 to Freehan’s 44.8 and Munson’s 40.9. Make of it what you will.
Given the dearth of catchers in Cooperstown, one could reasonably argue that all three merit enshrinement. As for which of them is most deserving of the honor… let’s just say I’m not convinced that it is the longtime St. Louis Cardinal. The late Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees stalwarts — themselves one-franchise players — were every bit as good.
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FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Alex Skepton is slashing .375/.444/.675 with six home runs in 88 plate appearances for the Australian Baseball League’s Brisbane Bandits. The 22-year-old outfielder — a native of Queensland — leads the ABL in BA, OBP, and SLG.
Riley Unroe has 15 stolen bases in as many attempts and is slashing .267/.387/.302 in 143 plate appearances for the Mexican Pacific Winter League’s Sultanes de Monterrey, The 28-year-old infielder in the Seattle Mariners system had 19 steals and a 101 wRC+ this year between Double-A Arkansas and Triple-A Tacoma.
Victor Morales is 4-2 with a 1.05 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 25-and-two-thirds innings for the Mexican Pacific Winter League’s Venados de Mazatlan. The 22-year-old right-hander hasn’t pitched in affiliated baseball stateside.
Victor Reyes has signed with the KBO’s Lotte Giants. The 29-year-old outfielder played for the Detroit Tigers from 2018-2022 before spending this past season with the Chicago White Sox Triple-A affiliate.
Kazuto Taguchi signed a three-year deal this week to remain with NPB’s Tokyo Yakult Swallows, and in doing so stated that he hopes to move to MLB in the not-too-distant future. The 28-year-old left-hander, who will obtain international free agent rights after next season, had 36 saves and a 1.86 ERA over 50 relief appearances for the Swallows this year.
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Jay Jaffe’s excellent look at Bartolo Colon’s career included the following in the column’s comments section:
There’s absolutely nothing mandating that players elected need to meet certain scientific criteria beyond having played 10 seasons. It’s great to know where a guy like Colon stacks up historically; but I would love to see more voters moving forward vote on guys that were fan favorites.
This is a valid opinion IMO. I seriously considered putting a checkmark next to Colon’s name, and the popularity/fame quotient was part of the reason why. Paired with a Cy Young Award, 247 wins, and a hefty-for-this-era innings total, it makes “Big Sexy” an intriguing, if not worthy, candidate.
I’m of the opinion that Tommy John merits a plaque in Cooperstown for similar reasons. The southpaw’s numbers (outside of the longevity-related ones) may not rank with the best of the best, but to say that he’s a household name would be stating the obvious. That matters. Or at least it should.
Tommy John is undeniably an important part of baseball history. In terms of popularity within this generation’s fanbase, Bartolo Colon is pretty darn important himself. While I didn’t find room for him on my ballot, I have no quibbles with anyone who did.
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LINKS YOU’LL LIKE
Longtime Orioles scribe Rich Dubroff wrote a fan letter to a relatively obscure big-league pitcher in 1971, and more than five decades later they met for the first time over lunch. Dubroff wrote about the experience at Baltimore Baseball.
Twinkie Town’s John Foley took a nuanced look at platoon splits.
San Diego Padres broadcaster Jesse Agler addressed subjects such as Yuki Matsui’s arrival, Fernando Tatis’s future, and MLB’s rules tweaks, in his Beyond the Booth newsletter.
MLB.com’s David Adler gave us a rundown of Statcast’s top plays of 2023.
Pitcher List’s Paul Michaud delved into whether Chris Martin might have had the best 2023 season of any reliever.
Young-and-eager job-seekers annually attend the Winter Meetings to chase the dream of working in baseball. Travis Sawchik wrote about it at The Score.
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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS
Mitch Garver — signed by the Mariners earlier this week — is 0-for-31 at Seattle’s T-Mobile Park. He is 9-for-23 with four home runs at New York’s Citi Field.
Henry Aaron had three five-hit games in his 23-year MLB career. Luis Arraez had three five-hit games this season, all in the month of June. Barry Bonds never had a five-hit game. He had three games with five walks.
Ty Cobb had 4,189 hits and scored 2,245 runs. Rickey Henderson had 3,055 hits and scored 2,295 runs.
Harold Baines had 2,866 hits, a 119 wRC+, and 38.4 fWAR.
Brian Giles had 1,897 hits, a 136 wRC+. and 54.8 fWAR.
Ernie Banks and Rod Carew combined to play 2,443 games as first basemen. They combined to play 2,259 games as middle infielders.
Dizzy Dean went 134-75 with a 132 ERA+ in 1,737 innings as a St. Louis Cardinal. Harry “The Cat” Brecheen went 128-79 with a 133 ERA+ in 1,790 innings as a St. Louis Cardinal.
The Pacific Coast League’s Sacramento Senators purchased Dazzy Vance from the New York Yankees on today’s date in 1919. The Hall of Fame right-hander later led the National League in strikeouts every year from 1922-1928 pitching for the Brooklyn Robins.
The Los Angeles Dodgers signed Fred McGriff as a free agent on today’s date in 2002. The “Crime Dog”went on to log 13 home runs and a 98 wRC+ with the Dodgers in what was his penultimate big-league season.
Players born on today’s date include Joe Simpson, an outfielder who logged 338 hits, including nine home runs, while playing for the Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, and Kansas City Royals from 1975-1983. Simpson has been part of the Atlanta Braves broadcast team since 1992.
Also born on today’s date was Hall of Fame catcher/outfielder King Kelly, whose big-league career comprised the 1878-1893 seasons. A two-time National League batting champion with the Chicago White Stockings, Kelly was — per his SABR BioProject biography — “professional baseball’s first matinee idol: the first ballplayer to “author” an autobiography, the first to have a hit song written about him, and the first to have a successful acting career outside the game.”
David Laurila grew up in Michigan's Upper Peninsula and now writes about baseball from his home in Cambridge, Mass. He authored the Prospectus Q&A series at Baseball Prospectus from December 2006-May 2011 before being claimed off waivers by FanGraphs. He can be followed on Twitter @DavidLaurilaQA.
Fine but also fuck Brian Giles
Why?
Re: Freehan-Molina-Munson debate. Munson’s case is particularly peculiar. He was at least the equal of Carlton Fisk and still in his prime (although slumping that season) when killed in a plane crash, a day I remember well as I was putting together a radio sportscast that afternoon. And then Hall of Fame voters apparently suffered collective amnesia. His case isn’t as egregious as Lou Whitaker, but catchers are required to clear an almost impossible bar for induction. And this may be my Detroit bias showing, but Bill Freehan is right on that line demarcating Fame/Very Good as well. Hopefully the veteran’s committee will do the right thing in due time.
Munson was playing in his age-32 season when he passed, so as a catcher in his era he probably didn’t have much left in the tank from a WAR point of view. Johnny Bench for example was only good for 2.3 WAR in his three seasons after age 32. That being said, catchers do have insane hurdles to surpass. They should probably start being considered HOF-worthy around the 45 WAR level (which Munson would have finished near) as opposed to the ~65 WAR threshold for other position players.
Munson was part of what many refer to as the Golden Age of catchers. His career almost perfectly encompassed the 1970s. He led all catchers in rWAR for the decade, won a Rookie of the Year, an MVP, was the Yankees first captain since Gehrig and a top-notch post-season performer. The Hall is short on catchers. He should be added, but strangely there seems to be no momentum by the ERA Committee’s to correct it.
My conclusion about the domestic violence issue (which I can attribute to other commenters here and their thoughts) is that it’s a binary yes/no question. Either the domestic violence issue is serious enough that they don’t deserve honors, or it’s not enough to disqualify them and it shouldn’t be considered. You cannot put domestic violence in a pros/cons column, or weight it against their JAWS score. Doing so ultimately cheapens any moral arguments and any sort of condemnation of domestic violence. If it’s serious enough that it should affect the Hall of Fame case, we shouldn’t bother with the rest.
I should note that I am thoroughly undecided about whether Andruw Jones’s behavior disqualifies him altogether. There’s evidence of what happened that night and it’s bad, so I totally understand if anyone says that’s enough to disqualify him. For me, the bigger issue is that in cases where someone violently attacks their spouse there’s usually a much longer pattern of domestic violence. But we don’t know that in this case, so I’m unsure. I think I change my opinion on this every year.
This is different than Omar Vizquel, a vile human being who we know not only engaged in years-long domestic violence and coercion of his then-wife, but who has lost his place in the game of baseball for exposing himself to a batboy with autism. I don’t think there’s any doubt there whether you should vote for a guy like that.
So you hold the position that if the severity of domestic violence falls on one side of a murky, poorly-defined line that only you understand, you propose absolute intolerance?
But if it falls on the other side, then you’re not allowed to consider it at all?
> You cannot put domestic violence in a pros/cons column, or weight it against their JAWS score. Doing so ultimately cheapens any moral arguments and any sort of condemnation of domestic violence.
I mean, you’re effectively minimizing the trauma dealt to victims, where the domestic violence falls on the “not-that-bad” side of your imaginary moral line.
As another proponent of this view, allow me to try to explain, as I don’t think you are understanding this correctly.
Sad trombone’s view, which I share for DV and all completely non-baseball related character issues, is that they shouldn’t be measured against baseball accomplishments. If your non-baseball conduct is bad enough to undermine your playing accomplishments, then that’s it.
Otherwise you find yourself measuring home runs and MVP voting up against what? How battered a woman is? Is it okay to vote Bonds in but not Andruw, even though his character flaws related to DV seem worse, because he hit more home runs? Measuring DV like it’s a stat line or a WAR component is gross to me.
I take a bilateral process and honestly I think you need to be pretty awful and consistently so to where you shouldn’t be in the Hall. The two recent guys I’d exclude, Schilling and Vizquel, also bend on whether all of their behavior is completely non-baseball behavior. Roger Clemens is very close due to the possibility that he is a serial rapist, but I haven’t seen enough evidence so I’d still include him pending more evidence.
Tough quiz. Near as I can tell, only 7 hitters even played in every season from 2009 – 23:
McCuthcen
Andrus
Miguel Cabrera
Joey Votto
Nelson Cruz
Evan Longoria
Justin Turner
Yeah, that was tough. I got McCutchen, but, couldn’t peg the 2nd one.
I figured guys like Miggy, Votto, Cruz probably didn’t meet the SB requirement.
Didn’t realize Justin Turner even played that far back.
& totally forgot that Andrus was even still playing.
Same exact thought process here!
This was actually my problem with the quiz. 2009 was a very long time ago and I had no idea who actually played for that long and was still around. The only names I could think of were:
-Longoria (who was my second guess, but he has actually has only had 1 stolen base from 2020-2023).
-Carlos Santana (who it turns out started playing in 2010 and is not very mobile now)
-Miguel Cabrera (who was basically immobile at the end and missed a bunch of time due to injuries later on)
-Joey Votto (who was also pretty slow near the end and had several seasons where he couldn’t make it all the way through the year due to injury).
For some reason, neither McCutchen nor Andrus came to mind. I think of McCutchen has a Mike Trout contemporary and Trout didn’t have a full season until 2012, and I think of Andrus as being a rookie on the Rangers’ pennant teams in 2010 and 2011. So they didn’t even come up.
I got McCutchen. My second guess was Charlie Blackmon – who does have a SB in every year he played, but only hit the bigs in 2011.
I was 0 for 2.
I went with Votto even though I doubted he was one of them. But I figured he was probably playing back in 2009 (he did steal a base every year from 2007-2019 but has only stolen one base since).
My second guess was Goldschmidt – turns out he didn’t debut until 2011 but he has stolen a base every year of his career.
Wagner 27.8 WAR with leverage included is better than Andruw Jones 62.7 WAR. Apparently that is the case.
Hall of Fame balloting has become a disgrace. You are not the only one who has decreed that back-up pitchers are not subject to the same standards as everybody else. Of course if we didn’t double or triple their true value, then would never be a backup pitcher in the Hall of Fame. And we couldn’t live with that, could we.
Geez Louise.
Crazy for one inning relievers to be given this kind of accolade. I’m not even sure multi-inning relievers should merit consideration. Why wouldn’t Rusty Staub get in for being a great pinch hitter for instance. How about the career leader in sacrifice hits ?
I’m surprised the writers have been so gung-ho on this topic.
I demand Herb Washington go into the Hall of Fame – the only guy in MLB history with more runs scored (33) than PAs (0).
yeah, I truly don’t understand the sudden obsession with Wagner’s candidacy. He was really good but pitched 903 innings in his entire career. For comparison Gerrit Cole has pitched more innings than that in the last 6 seasons (with more WAR in 6 seasons than Wagner had in his entire career) and I don’t think many would be banging the drum for his candidacy if he retired today. Add in the fact that relievers are almost by definition inferior to starters and I only see the case for GOAT level relievers like Mariano Rivera.
Too many down votes here for you. Relievers should never trump a guy with a resume like Jones. Only 2 who could are Hoffman and that overrated Yankee who failed at starting.
I suppose one could vote for Jones over another guy if it’s close if one feels that the vote might be enough to propel Jones just over the threshold. I am a fan of Abreu, but I am guessing Jones is closer to the mark this year.
Brian Giles is quite the HOF what-if story. Despite being eminently playable much earlier on, he didn’t get a 600 PA season until he was 28. If he hadn’t been trapped behind all the studs in the world in Cleveland, he’s probably easily in the 60-70 WAR range.
I don’t know. Giles was a bit of a late bloomer. Although he always hit for good average in the minors, his power didn’t start to develop until his age 22 season. And even then he never hit for POWER in the minors. Same thing his first two full seasons in Cleveland – he only hit 35 XBH in 451 PAs and 35 on 430 PAs, neither of which were big totals for the time. I think an earlier start might have gotten him about 5 more WAR.
He hit .294/.387/.503 (127 WRC+) in 603 PAs across his age 24, 25, and 26 seasons. I think that would’ve played.
“Fun” and “memorable” are as important as statistics. It is indeed the Hall of FAME. Both Colon and John are legitimate candidates. Perhaps fans could vote by some kind of local mechanism and teams could submit those names. Deserving guys like Freehan and Munson would make it easily. Fans might feel more connected to the Hall that way.
Rickey (13,346) and Ty (13,103) are very close in PA. Rickey got 1134 fewer hits but 941 more walks. He also stole 509 more bases!
Being fun and memorable has value, but it’s absolutely not as important as on-field performance
If I remember correctly, on the Hall of Stats main page it said “It’s not the Hall of Stats…but what if it was?”. I think that in the last ten years the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction, away from the sentiments expressed by the Colon commenter quoted in the article and towards just making the Hall of Fame into the Hall of Stats. There are times when the stats just don’t cut it, and to tell the story of the game—it is a museum that we have in Cooperstown, after all, not the Elysian Fields upon which only the best players are welcome—players who are not above the normal statistical threshold should be represented occasionally. Tommy John, whose name is mentioned every day in baseball and who also pitched for a quarter of a century is the primary example of this, but Curt Flood shouldn’t be forgotten either.
This goes the same for players who were highly respected in their time, whom we have deemed unworthy retroactively…for example, Bill Freehan, who was an eleven time all-star; Steve Garvey who was a ten-timer; Omar Vizquel and Keith Hernandez who each won eleven gold gloves; Don Mattingly who won nine, etc. We know now that many of them didn’t deserve the awards they got (well, we know as far as we can trust defensive stats), but 35-40 years ago good luck finding someone who didn’t know who Mattingly or Garvey was. Or even Fernando Valenzuela! That’s the kind of fame that should be represented when telling the story of the game.
And if we are going to tell the true story of the game, not just the bits of it that feel good as bedtime stories, then we should be including the all-time hits leader (Pete Rose) and other banned players like Eddie Cicotte and Shoeless Joe Jackson, who were absolutely superstars in their day. I’m fine if a permanent ban from baseball activities means induction after death, but omitting them as if they never existed is illogical. It’s not like they’re participating in baseball anymore…Jackson died in 1951.
And yes, this means that I think that the Steroid Era should be adequately represented too. McGwire, Sosa, and Bonds saved the game from the doldrums of the mid-70s to early 90s and made it into a sport that people wanted to actually watch. I don’t like cheaters being rewarded, but we currently have some pretty massive holes in the story we’re trying to tell. Clemens, A-Rod, Manny, and Palmeiro should be in to represent that era. If you want to induct them only after death, fine. If you want to make the bar to admission higher for confirmed steroid users, fine. I’m okay if Kevin Brown, Jose Canseco, Juan Gonzalez, Jason Giambi, etc. don’t get in; even though they were a big part of the game, none was the type of transcendent star that the history of the game is egregiously incomplete without.
Off-field incidents I’d handle in the same way. There’s no way I want Vizquel giving an induction speech, but it’s not like he didn’t exist and it’s not like the old-timers weren’t half of them alcoholics who did awful things off the field…in a time before there were cameras everywhere and before their wives had the means to independently accuse them of assault. Why can’t we just induct him and others like him posthumously?
I recognize that some of these choices are controversial, and I don’t expect others to agree with me on every point. If telling the history of the game makes the Hall of Fame seem like a big hall rather than a nice, medium-sized hall, so be it. Frankie Frisch and Bill Terry did their best to give us a huge hall anyway, and everyone I’ve mentioned (with the exception of Curt Flood) was a better player and was more important to the game than any of Freddie Lindstrom, Kiki Cuyler, Lloyd Waner, Johnny Evers, Rabbit Maranville, Ray Schalk, and even Harold Baines, so it’s not like this line of logic will turn into an advocacy for the Hall case of, like, Melky Cabrera or Nick Markakis or something. I do believe in the Hall as a museum though, and a good museum tells the whole story, not just the statistical story.
There seems to be this strain of thought that the HOF is for people who “…if we are going to tell the true story of the game…” I disagree. I think the HOF is for the greatest (and most famous?) players ever, constrained by the ethics clause however you interpret it.
The Museum part of the facility is for the story of the game, including the guys who you excluded from the HOF itself for ethical or whatever reasons. And, as I recall, the Baseball Museum itself was by far the more interesting part of the complex. .
A lot of my issue is that the character clause has not been applied at all consistently between contemporary players or over time…if it had been standardized at any point it would be a different issue that I’d have to think about.
And the Hall of Fame hasn’t been a collection of the best players ever since 1946 when Tinker-to-Evers-to-Chance was elected all in one go. I agree that the actual museum is cooler than all the plaques, and that maybe that’s the proper spot for Flood specifically, but the retroactive “you’re unworthy” really bothers me, whether it’s for off-field issues (since the character clause is so much of whatever anyone feels it should be) or for statistical reasons. I don’t really want a pure Hall of WAR, which seems to be where this is going; and I say that as a STEM educator who enjoys baseball stats (and other stats) to an almost unhealthy degree, as I’m sure most of us do.
It’s also never applied retroactively. Roberto Alomar gets banned by MLB but stays in the Hall of Fame. So you just have to hope you get elected before all your crap becomes public and you’re good to go…
Except the ethics clause wasn’t intended to be a constraint. It was intended to reward people like Schilling who won the Clemente Award for instance. It was intended to be adder not a subtractor. Now it’s just a cudgel and part of our cultural zeal to punish people we don’t like for whatever reason.
Yes, this, exactly. I think the problem is too many people haven’t been there. There’s a whole exhibit about the steroid era. The museum tells the story.
I’m not totally against factoring in all evidence when deciding who should be inducted, but it should not be this “can you tell the story of baseball without…” standard. The Hall of Fame museum can and will tell the whole story of baseball without certain people being inducted as members of the hall of fame (which is essentially a literal hall).
The “fame” guys have been doing pretty darn well in recent years, with guys like Morris, Baines, Papi, McGriff, Kaat, etc., getting in. I’d say they’re doing better these days than they have in a significant period of time, now that what amounts to the Veterans committee has been greatly expanded. And I think it was expanded due to the advent of advanced stats, to give “narrative” guys more opportunities.
From a numerical perspective, there’s always going to be a borderline somewhere, and at that border the question is always going to be “why not this person who was SO close”? What that amounts to of course is the borderline slowly drifting down over the years.
More to the point, as mentioned above, the Hall is and always was created to honor the truly exemplary. And determining who those truly exemplary been are has always been about the stats (at least when it comes to the BBWAA vote). Meanwhile the Museum honors the story of the game. That’s where the Garvey’s and Mattingly’s and Giambi’s belong.
Totally agree the steroid guys should be in, though. Lots of people did roids. Very few of them hit 500 HRs.
Regarding Tommy John, he was fortunate that Frank Jobe has developed a surgery that allowed him to continue his career. Yes, he put in the hard work to get back to the majors and thrive for a long time afterwards. If someone supports his candidacy for what he did on the field, I understand, but not because he went under the knife.
Also, permanently ineligible doesn’t mean election for Pete Rose after he’s gone. It’s not a lifetime ban, it’s a permanent one.
I agree with the premise, but I also think you can easily tell the story of baseball without Omar Visquel and Bartolo Colon
“but 35-40 years ago good luck finding someone who didn’t know who Mattingly or Garvey was. Or even Fernando Valenzuela! That’s the kind of fame that should be represented when telling the story of the game.”
So if you are lucky enough to be drafted by the Dodgers or the Yankees you are already up an arm and a leg on the opposition.
Johan Santana and Sandy Koufax have almost identical stats. In fact Santana’s on field case is slightly better, but look at how differently the electorate has treated them. FAME is the keyword I believe.
Not voting for Andruw because of domestic violence is a fine and a justifiable decision but arguing that he shouldn’t get your vote because “he’s not as good as the metrics say” because, in essence, no one can be that good, is an odd argument.
Our ability to judge Andruw’s defense is significantly better than Mays, yet we’re just to assume (in your hypothetical) that Mays was an elite defender. Who is to say Mays as good as the anecdotes and “eye test” assumes?
And if we’re going with crimes as a factor to exclude players from the HOF, Gary Sheffield was charged with resisting arrest and battery of a police officer yet that’s okay (in the sense of getting a HOF vote?)
Your entire premise and argument isn’t consistent.
I’m going to stick up for Sheffield here. He was 18 years old and he was with his drug-addled uncle (Gooden) who almost certainly precipitated the whole event based on his history (and based on the fact that Gooden was charged with more than Sheffield). Not that Tampa cops needed a lot of excuses to mess with an 18 year old black guy. And even if it was Sheffield’s fault it’s still nowhere near as bad as beating up your spouse.
Sheffield’s only real off the field problems were a couple of DUIs. He got carjacked once and shot but that wasn’t his fault.
Is David’s argument that assault is okay as long as it’s not your spouse? Because that’s essentially what it boils down to if he votes (as he did) for Sheffield other than Andruw. If that’s the moral argument, it’s a strange one. Don’t vote for either, fine, and is consistent, vote for both, also fine and consistent, but one over the other is hypocritical.
And that’s before mentioning that the DUIs that shouldn’t just be written off. DUIs are incredible dangerous (just because no one got hurt does not make it okay) and should also be a black mark against a player (if other moral stances are taken as tie breaking reasons for votes).
But David’s argument is basically “I don’t want to vote for Andruw because of ‘reasons’ so here are a few.” But those reasons aren’t intellectually consistent and doesn’t hold up to scrutiny compared to the rest of the ballot.
Ohh by the way, David forgot Manny also has a DV charge.
David clearly didn’t do enough due diligence.
Which parts of “strategic thinking went into the decision” and “I am likely to resume voting for him” are you not understanding? At no point did I say I’m not voting for Jones this year due to off-the-field allegations — what I did was echo Jay in making note of an issue that every voter doing his/her due diligence needs to take into account, whether they vote for the player or not. I very much did my due diligence. Thank you.
The part where the strategic “thinking” doesn’t hold up to scrutiny. That’s the part that you aren’t understanding with my critique.; your arguments or points aren’t consistent across the player group you actually voted for.
You indicated that you made an issue that every voter should take into account (DV charge against Andruw) but then failed to mention it (or as a consideration) for a player you did vote for, Manny.
You specifically say:
So why is it okay for Manny but not for Andruw? Why not bring up the same consideration for Manny?
I’m glad you did your supposed due diligence, this ballot doesn’t seem to really show it, though.
you can’t see any distinction between DV, where often a much stronger person is taking advantage of their ability to harm and hold power over a weaker spouse, and assaulting a police officer, which often means shoving a strong, trained officer who is armed and has the power/ability to kill their assailant?
It’s generally dramatically different, with vast swathes of room to draw a line between the two.
Then don’t vote for Manny then, but David did. So his argument against using DV as a reason not to vote to someone (or consider not voting for someone) doesn’t really compute.
My point on Sheffield is that if you’re using off the field reasons he has plenty of reasons not to be voted for as well: assaulting a police officer, DUIs, known steroid user, etc.
I think that violently beating your spouse is a whole lot worse than getting caught up in an altercation where your troubled uncle starting taunting cops. The story is that Gooden got pulled over, handed over his license, and then starting screaming profanities at the cops, at which point the cops beat the hell out of him. One witness said that he got hit on the back of the head with a flashlight. Sheffield ran over to confront the cops, and they beat him senseless too. According to witnesses (and Sheffield himself) the beatings continued after they were already subdued. I mean, if you’re an 18 year old and the cops are beating your uncle senseless, that’s a pretty difficult situation to be in. He may or may not have even done much at all.
Meanwhile, Andruw Jones and his wife got home from a Christmas Eve party. Jones was drunk, and his wife got on his case about how they needed to set up for Christmas day. He then dragged her down the stairs, wrapped his hands around her neck, and threatened to kill her.
Now, if you think those two are equivalent, I’m sorry but we are not going to resolve this disagreement.
It’s not that I think they’re equivalent, a point that has been stated by me multiple times, it’s that if you’re using off the field behavior as a criteria then be consistent across the players you vote for. I used Sheffield as my first example when a better choice would have been Manny.
Specifically, don’t vote for Manny if you’re going to use DV as a reason to exclude someone. And I’m fine if someone has that view, my point is if you’re not consistent then one’s entire argument rings hollow.
I also don’t understand his Jones argument when he’s previously voted for Visquel several times. We have pretty substantial evidence that Visquel’s defense wasn’t nearly as good as the number of Gold Gloves suggest
You’d be much happier in your voting if you left the personal stuff out of your calculus. DV, wrong politics, drinking problems, etc etc. where will it end ? Is that really what the Hall should be adjudicating?
PEDs and the Astros cheating scandals are fine to consider as they impacted the game on the field
As to Munson, Freehan and Molina, they are all valid HOFrs and one can only hope that Munson and Freehan get another look. Besides all being great catchers, they are all one team players
This is an excellent HOF ballot. More voters need to utilize all ten votes available to them. In my mind there are 14 players with legitimate hall of fame arguments on this ballot, and I’d hate to see any one of them fall off the ballot before their time is up.
I’d just like to offer that Vizquel’s DV case is not a simple analog to other DV cases and shouldn’t be treated that way. Nor is his case just a matter of DV. I don’t mean to minimize DV but rather maximize Vizquel’s particular evil.
I appreciate you sharing your ballot and explaining your thought process, either in this article or in past ones. I think it is a great ballot. Personally, I wouldn’t vote for Wagner, for several reasons. But as a comparison, I can’t see a world in which he is more deserving of being in the Hall than Andruw Jones. But if all the choices were obvious and we agreed 100% of the time, then it would be extremely boring.
I’m putting this here because otherwise it’s in a subthread but if Manny has a DV charge why vote for him but not Andruw?
David, this ballot and its rationale is pretty awful, I’m sorry to say. Wagner’s inclusion is silly (over Andruw) and your reasons aren’t intellectually consistent, even if you want to hide behind game theory.
Thanks David for giving us an insight into your beliefs and values. I respect that they are different to mine and thats ok. We are not the same person and I have not walked in your shoes. I havent walked in mementos shoes either but I would be horrified if someone called my beliefs and values awful and silly simply because I had a different view on a “vote”
The logic is awful. This year the ballot isn’t that difficult to vote on; but David somehow missed on the only thing one shouldn’t do, which is vote for a player that amassed 902 innings over other deserving candidates.
He then tried to explain that vote by using rationale that wasn’t logically consistent with the rest of his ballot.
Like I’ve said multiple times; if you want to exclude players for off the field behavior, great, I have no problem with that. But be consistent with it, once you start picking and choosing you run into logical inconsistencies like David did here.
Not everyone will agree with my view, that’s fine, just like people won’t agree with voting for Wagner or excluding Jones and voting for Manny or Abreu or Mauer, etc.
“The logic is awful. This year the ballot isn’t that difficult to vote on; but David somehow missed on the only thing one shouldn’t do, which is vote for a player that amassed 902 innings over other deserving candidates.”
Agreed. The idea that Wagner is anywhere close to a Hall of Famer is really hard to fathom. He wouldn’t even be a worthy candidate for a Pitchers’ Hall of Fame. He was a backup part time player, like a good field goal kicker in the NFL. Does the NFL put their field goal kickers in their Hall of Fame. I hope not, but Blanda may have snuck in, but he was also a quarterback.
Acquiring Cody Morris from the Cleveland Guardians in exchange for Estevan Florial earlier this week has the makings of a shrewd move for the New York Yankees.
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I look forward to Eric’s write up, but Florial never progressed as a hitter even after repeating AAA three times. He’s 26. That acknowledged, Cleveland nevertheless could be one of the few teams he’ll get a chance to start simply because they currently have a CFer who also can’t hit and has no power. Florial can’t hit either, but he does at least offer the threat of some power, which is desperately needed in the Cleveland OF. Florial has the most fatal of fatal flaws a hitter can have. It’s something that can’t be taught, hence why he stalled in the minors. I’m glad he’s going to get a shot, but he’s now entered the Greg Allen phase of his career.
I believe Molina is a HOFer no matter which version of WAR used, be it rWAR, fWAR, or the limited version of fWAR with pitch framing baked in.I say limited since it only is valid on a small fraction of catchers. Comparing a current player’s fWAR with pitch framing to prior catchers without pitch framing is extremely misleading. It doesn’t strengthen Molina’s case since we don’t have a compare group.
>I would love to see more voters moving forward vote on guys that were fan favorites
John McDonald, Hall of Famer.