Don Mattingly had 2,153 hits, 222 home runs, a .361 wOBA, a 124 wRC+, and 40.7 WAR. Statistically, the New York Yankees legend is similar to a Minnesota Twins legend who a few months ago was voted into the Hall of Fame by the Golden Days Committee. Tony Oliva had 1,917 hits, 220 home runs, a .365 wOBA, a 129 wRC+, and 40.7 WAR.

And then there is Brian Giles, who received nary a vote in his lone year on the BBWAA ballot, and quite possibly will never appear on an era-committee ballot. Perennially flying under the radar while playing in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and San Diego, the underrated slugger had 1,897 hits, 287 home runs, a .388 wOBA, a 136 wRC+, and 54.8 WAR.

What about peak, you might be wondering? Giles was better there, too.

Mattingly had a six-year peak before back injuries began eroding his skills. Over that stretch, he logged a .388 wOBA, a 143 wRC+, and 31.7 WAR. Meanwhile, Oliva and Giles had seven-year peaks that produced these numbers: Read the rest of this entry »

Corbin Carroll is obsessed with baseball. He’s also immensely talented at the game he grew up playing in the Seattle area. Drafted 16th overall by the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2019, the 21-year-old left-handed-hitting center fielder is ranked 14th on our recently-released Top 100 Prospects list.

In the words of our prospect team, Carroll possesses “a blend of physical gifts and heady baseball acumen,” and is expected to “produce at an All-Star level for much of his career assuming a return to full strength.” Most notable in his tool grades are his running ability, which is 70/70 present and future, and his hitting ability, which is 70 future.

Carroll, who missed all but seven games of the 2021 season due to a shoulder injury, discussed his approach and hitting mechanics over the phone Wednesday afternoon.

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David Laurila: Let’s start with a self-scouting report. Who are you as a player?

Corbin Carroll: “In my eyes… that’s good question. I’d say I like to view myself as a spark plug, someone who is getting the team going and will go the extra step to do whatever it takes to score more runs than the other team. I think that translates in terms of some tangible skills on the field, and maybe to some intangible ones, as well.”

Laurila: With intangibles in mind, do you see yourself as a team leader? Read the rest of this entry »

Grayson Rodriguez continues to ascend. Ranked 30th last year, the 22-year-old right-hander in the Baltimore Orioles organization is No. 3 on our newly-released 2022 Top 100 Prospects list. Moreover, he’s the highest-ranked hurler. Blessed with a lethal arsenal of pitches, Rodriguez possesses, in the opinion of Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein, “the potential to be a No. 1 starter and Cy Young candidate.”

On the eve of last year’s Top 100 release, we ran an interview with Rodriguez that focused on his changeup/screwball. To augment this year’s ranking, we caught up to the fast-rising righty to discuss the developmental strides he’s made since last season, and to ask him what it feels like to be the top pitching prospect in the game.

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David Laurila: We talked 12 months ago. What’s changed since that time?

Grayson Rodriguez: “I would say the one thing I’m most proud of is that my average velocity has increased. When we last talked, the previous year’s average velo was 95.7 [mph]. This past season, I was able to get it up to 98.5. That [is], up until the last month of the season when it dropped a little bit; in September, it was 96.8. So, getting the average velocity up was big for me. I was working in the strike zone more often with that little extra velo.”

Laurila: How and why did your velocity go up? Read the rest of this entry »

The Red Sox have upped the quality of their farm system in recent years, and Paul Toboni has played a key role in that ascent. Boston’s director of amateur scouting since September 2019 — he was assistant director for three years prior — the 32-year-old University of Notre Dame MBA has helped facilitate drafting players such as Marcelo Mayer and Nick Yorke. Originally hired by the Red Sox as an intern, Toboni became an area scout in 2015 before climbing up the ranks to his current position.

On the road scouting when this conversation took place, Toboni talked about the process itself, the philosophies that shape an organization’s decision-making, and some of the notable draftees the Red Sox have brought on board.

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David Laurila: Let’s start with the basics. What exactly does an amateur scout do?

Paul Toboni: “It depends on your responsibility. We have a number of area scouts across the country who are responsible for areas ranging in geographical size, and also in player density. There are a lot of players coming out of Southern California, so maybe we have two scouts there. We also have a scout covering Arkansas, Oklahoma, and all the way through North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas. An area scout’s job, really, is to be at the grassroots level and get to know these players really well. They talk to coaches, turn in reports, and come up with their lists.

“It flows upward from there, to our regional cross checkers. I think teams around the league are organized pretty similarly in that [the cross checkers] cover four or five area scout’s areas. From there it goes to national cross checkers, who are responsible for covering the whole country. Then it’s the front office.”

Laurila: What goes into the reports that scouts turn in? Read the rest of this entry »

Mike Elias had a background in scouting and player development when he came to Baltimore in November 2018. The Orioles general manager and executive vice president broke into pro ball as a scout with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2007. Four years later, he was hired by Houston to serve as the club’s director of amateur scouting; in 2016, the Astros promoted the Yale University graduate to assistant GM and put him in charge of player development.

The challenges he inherited in Baltimore were daunting. Elias took over a team that had just lost 115 games — the most in franchise history. The Orioles’ divisional competition is comprised of the powerhouses of the American League East. The rebuild was going to be anything but easy. Moreover, it would take time, much to the chagrin of a dedicated fanbase.

But light is starting to appear at end of the tunnel. Under Elias’ guidance, the Orioles have built one of baseball’s best farm systems, with Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, D.L. Hall, Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson and Coby Mayo all featured on our forthcoming Top 100. Most notable are Rutschman and Rodriguez, who rank as the game’s top position player prospect and top pitching prospect, respectively.

As part of our Prospects Week interview series, Elias discussed the organization’s approach to scouting and player development.

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David Laurila: I’ve asked you about the relationship between scouting and player development in previous interviews, and I’ll do so again now. In what ways has that relationship changed?

Mike Elias: “It continues to meld. As the days and years go by — given how sophisticated player development is becoming — how easy it is for an organization to communicate with itself is an underrated factor. I joined professional baseball in 2007, so I was already in the internet age, but if you talk to people who were working in professional baseball in the ‘80s, ‘90s, and early 2000s, a lot of effort was put into staying in touch with your remote employees. They would use voicemail. So a lot of the practices and divisions between scouting and player development come out of an era when it was hard for everyone to stay in touch. That’s no longer the case. Read the rest of this entry »

Per the JAWS leaderboard, Adrián Beltré (4) and Scott Rolen (10) rank highest among third basemen not in the Hall of Fame. Beltré will almost certainly get the nod once he becomes eligible, while the currently-on-the ballot Rolen has been making strong headway toward Cooperstown. If and when both players are enshrined, which non-Hall of Fame third baseman will rank highest in JAWS?

The answer is Graig Nettles, who ranks 12th (11th if you don’t include Edgar Martinez). In terms of WAR, Nettles (65.7) ranks right in front of Martinez (65.5), and close behind Rolen (69.9). Beltré (84.1) is comfortably ahead of all three.

Should Nettles be in the Hall of Fame? His accolades and accomplishments include 390 home runs, six All-Star berths, two Gold Gloves — he’d have won more were it not for Brooks Robinson — and a pair of World Series rings. All told, he played in five Fall Classics. Back when Jay Jaffe was writing for Sports Illustrated, my esteemed colleague tabbed Nettles as the most-overlooked player at his position when it comes to Hall of Fame worthiness.

Meanwhile, was Beltré better than Robinson? A clear majority of the people who voted in a Twitter poll I ran yesterday feel that he was. Of the 337 people who weighed in, 61.7% opted for Beltré, while only 38.3% sided with the legendary Baltimore Orioles Hall of Famer. Read the rest of this entry »

Michael Fransoso is a great fit for a Mariners player-development machine that thrives with a process-based philosophy. Seattle boasts one of the top farm systems in the game, and Fransoso, a 31-year-old University of Maine graduate who played multiple professional seasons, is an up-and-coming hitting instructor who is fully-invested in that approach. His tutelage has thus far been at the lower rungs of the minors: He spent last season working with many of the organization’s best position-player prospects in the Arizona Complex League, and this year, he’ll be the hitting coach at low-A Modesto.

Earlier this month, Fransoso discussed the Mariners’ developmental philosophy and the some of the young hitters he’s been helping to hone.

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David Laurila: You joined the organization in November 2019. What were the conversations like during, and immediately following, the hiring process?

Michael Fransoso: “Very process-based. Andy McKay was our farm director, and everything kind of flows through him. He’s very process-based, and also big into the mental game. That was huge. I felt like all of my conversations with the hitting department aligned. Everybody was on the same page in terms of the Mariners’ process — how we want to develop hitters — and they were able to deliver that message to me in a clear way. Really, it’s about dominating the zone.”

Laurila: I think it’s safe to say that all teams want their hitters to dominate the zone. What is the actual process?

Fransoso: “When you hear ‘dominate the strike zone,’ you might think it means ‘swing at strikes and take balls,’ but it’s not that simple. We want it to be simple, but hitting isn’t simple. Dominating the zone is more of a mindset. It’s also an individual approach to manage that hitter-pitcher matchup. When you break it down, the only thing a hitter controls is whether we swing at that pitch. We don’t have control over what the pitcher throws, how hard he’s throwing, or the break. We don’t even control whether it’s a ball or strike, because that’s up to the umpire. Read the rest of this entry »

Kody Clemens’s game is built around pop. Playing almost exclusively with Triple-A Toledo, the 25-year-old second baseman went deep 18 times last year in just 424 plate appearances. He knows what he brings to the table. Asked for a self-scouting report, Clemens began by saying he’s “grown to learn that a good part of my game is power.”

Born to a baseball family — his father is the seven-time Cy Young Award winner who shares his surname — Clemens grew up swinging from the left side. That was a matter of happenstance, not of design.

“It just came out that way,” explained Clemens, who is No. 21 on our Detroit Tigers Top Prospects list. “When I was young, my dad put a little bat in my hand and said, ‘Hey, hit the ball.’ I guess I stood up from the left side of the plate. It felt comfortable, so I kept swinging that way.”

The tutelage that followed was predictably based on the perspective of a pitcher. “The Rocket” primarily taught his three sons — Kacy and Koby have also played professionally — about attack plans and how to approach at bats. Mechanics were never much of a focus. Read the rest of this entry »

Samad Taylor stepped up his game last year. After at times disappointing at the dish in his early seasons of professional baseball, the 23-year-old infielder/outfielder broke out to the tune of a .294/.385/.503 slash line with Double-A New Hampshire. Moreover, he showed surprising pop for a player who profiles as more of a table-setter than a middle-of-the-order masher. Carrying 170 pounds on his 5-foot-10 frame, Taylor left the yard 16 times in 374 plate appearances. He also swiped 30 bases.

The Corona, California native came to Toronto via trade. Cleveland’s 10th-round pick in the 2016 draft, Taylor changed organizations the ensuing summer in the deal that sent sidearmer Joe Smith to the shores of Lake Erie. First featured here at FanGraphs following a statistically-poor 2018 season, Taylor proceeded to scuffle again in 2019, then miss an entire season, as did his minor-league brethren, due to the pandemic. As evidenced by his 2021 output, the changes he began making over the COVID shutdown — mental and physical alike — proved a panacea.

Taylor will enter the upcoming campaign ranked No. 36 on our Toronto Blue Jays Top Prospects list.

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David Laurila: This past year was by far your best in pro ball. What changed?

Samad Taylor: “It was just understanding myself as a ballplayer, understanding what my approach is. In previous years, I was in the box trying to do too much. I would come up in certain situations and try to be the hero, when in reality, being a hero wasn’t necessary. I didn’t understand that. I didn’t understand myself as a hitter. Read the rest of this entry »

Colton Cowser didn’t exactly crush pitchers in his first half-season of professional baseball; his left-handed stroke produced just two home runs in 149 plate appearances after he was drafted fifth overall by the Baltimore Orioles out of Sam Houston State University. What the 21-year-old outfielder did do is square up a lot of baseballs. Playing primarily with the Low-A Delmarva Shorebirds, he slashed .375/.490/.492, and just as he did at the collegiate level, he walked more times than he struck out. Displaying the plate discipline and contact skills that helped make him a first-round pick, Cowser drew 25 free passes and went down by way of the K just 23 times.

The extent to which the Cypress, Texas native can grow his power game will go a long way toward determining his big-league future. Will he be more of a table-setter, or will he establish himself as an impact bat in the middle of the Orioles’ lineup? There is reason to believe it will be the latter. He currently packs 215 pounds on his 6-foot-3 frame, and he entered pro ball having left the yard 16 times in his junior season as a Bearkat. Both his home run total and his 1.170 OPS were tied for tops in the Southland Conference.

Cowser — No. 4 on our newly-released Orioles Top Prospects list — discussed his hitting approach, and his early-career developmental goals, over the phone in late January.

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David Laurila: When Baseball America wrote you up for their 2022 Prospect Handbook, they cited your impressive walk-to-strikeout ratio. They also wrote that your swing path is “presently more geared toward contact versus power.” Do you feel that’s accurate?

Colton Cowser: “I think so. But I’m not necessarily focused on my swing path resulting in more contact or power; I mostly just try to go up there with the same swing. Home runs come from timing. Even so, I have started to understand some of those things a little bit more. The Orioles have kind of brought that to my eyes with some of the developmental stuff they have.”

Laurila: I was planning to ask you about that. Hitting analytics have presumably become a bigger part of your baseball life since you signed. Read the rest of this entry »