Blake Brown had an uninspiring transcript when he signed as a non-drafted free agent with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2020. In four collegiate seasons at the University of North Carolina-Asheville, the 23-year-old right-hander had logged a 4.99 ERA and been credited with just six wins and eight saves. He had a psychology degree in his back pocket, but outside of a promising fastball, little in the way of baseball bona fides.

Based on his first professional season, the Phillies may have secured a diamond-in-the-rough. In 34 relief outings — 33 with High-A Jersey City and one with Double-A Reading — Brown fanned 59 batters and allowed just 22 hits over 41 innings of work. Walks were an issue — he issued 36 free passes — but his ERA was a laudable 3.07, and his batting-average-against a Lilliputian .155.

Brown — No. 31 on our newly-released Phillies Top Prospects list — discussed his draft experience and his emergence as an up-and-coming arm in a recent phone interview.

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David Laurila: You were a non-drafted senior sign. What were your draft expectations, both in your junior and senior years?

Blake Brown: “My junior year, I thought there was a decent chance that I’d get drafted, but they weren’t especially high expectations. I didn’t have the greatest year. But my senior year, going into the five-round draft, I thought that I was… not guaranteed, but I was more certain that I would at least get a call. And I did get a couple of calls during the draft, with some money on the table. Things just never panned out.”

Laurila: Why didn’t things pan out?

Brown: “So, a couple of the teams called and said, ‘Hey, would you take X amount of money in the next round?’ Before the draft, it was ‘Would you take X amount of money if we were drafting you today?’ I would say ‘yes.’ But when that round came and the team’s name popped up, it was never my name getting called. I think it was a matter of teams having someone on their board that they didn’t expect to be there, and they were like, ‘OK, we’ve got to hop on that.’”

Laurila: Where did the Phillies fit into the equation? Read the rest of this entry »

When Buster Posey announced his retirement in early November, my first thought was something along the lines of “Fantastic career; he’ll be getting my vote when he becomes Hall of Fame eligible in five years.” Looking back, that initial reaction actually undersold just how dominant Posey was over his 12-year career.

A few days ago, I shared the following on social media:

Best catchers in baseball history: 1. Mickey Cochrane, 2. Johnny Bench, 3. Josh Gibson, 4. Yogi Berra, 5. Gary Carter, 6. Ivan Rodriguez.

Your opinion of that ranking aside, a follower proceeded to ask for my opinion of Posey. That prompted me to compare the 34-year-old’s career to that of Cochrane, who likewise was done at a relatively-early age. Cochrane played his last game shortly after his 34th birthday, an errant Bump Hadley pitch — this in the days before hitters wore helmets — having fractured his skull and rendered him unconscious for 10 days. Coincidentally or not, Cochrane had taken Hadley deep in his previous at bat.

Cochrane played from 1925-1937 — a high-offense era — and finished his career with an eye-popping .320/.419/.478 slash line. Perusing our WAR leaderboard for that baker’s-dozen stretch, you’ll find Cochrane sandwiched between Rogers Hornsby and Tony Lazzeri. In 1947, Cochrane became the first catcher voted into the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA.

Cochrane played in 1,482 games. Posey played in 1,371 games. How do they otherwise compare? Read the rest of this entry »

In many respects, Josh Palacios has already exceeded expectations. A 2016 fourth round pick who has remained on the periphery of most top prospect lists, the 26-year-old outfielder debuted with the Toronto Blue Jays last April. Moreover, he went 4-for-4 with a walk in his second game. While the opportunity proved fleeting — he was back in the minors by month’s end — the Brooklyn born-and-raised nephew of former Kansas City Royals catcher Rey Palacios had reached the pinnacle of his profession. Counting September’s second cup of coffee, the personable youngster finished the campaign with seven hits in 35 at-bats.

An honorable mention on our just released Blue Jays Top Prospects list, Palacios recently took the time to discuss his path to the big leagues, his still-lofty goals, and a baseball role model whose memory inspires his own efforts to be an asset to his community.

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David Laurila: Let’s start with you being part of a baseball family. Your brother [Richie Palacios] is in the Guardians system, your uncle played in the big leagues, and I believe that your father (Richard Palacios) played in the minors?

Josh Palacios: “Yes. My uncle and my dad played in the Tigers system together, and then my uncle got traded to the Royals; that’s who he made his major league debut with. My father only played for a short period of time.”

Laurila: You played at a junior college, then at Auburn, before getting drafted by the Blue Jays. Your bio shows that your major was Public Administration, but for all intents and purposes, were you majoring in baseball? Read the rest of this entry »

A few days ago, I ran a Twitter poll asking which of Bobby Abreu and Ichiro Suzuki had the better MLB career. The latter won in a landslide. Of the 1,183 votes cast, 86.8% went to Ichiro, while Abreu garnered just 13.2%.

The poll results don’t reflect their respective numbers:

Ichiro: .311/.355/.402, .328 wOBA, 104 wRC+, 57.8 WAR.
Abreu: .291/.395/.475, .378 wOBA, 129 wRC+, 59.8 WAR.

If you favor counting stats, here are a few of those:

Ichiro: 3.089 hits, 362 2Bs, 96 3Bs, 117 HRs, 3,994 total bases, 509 SB.
Abreu: 2,470 hits, 574 2Bs, 59 3Bs, 288 HRs, 4.026 total bases, 400 SB.

Unless you place an especially-high value on hit totals and batting averages, Abreu clearly has a career-wise statistical edge on the undoubtedly Hall-of-Fame-worthy Ichiro. Read the rest of this entry »

In 2021, I once again had an opportunity to interview numerous people within baseball. Many of their words were shared in my Sunday Notes column, while others came courtesy of the Talks Hitting series, the Learning and Developing a Pitch series, and an assortment of Q&As and feature stories. Here is a selection of the best quotes from this year’s conversations, with the bolded lines linking to the pieces they were excerpted from.

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“I knew that I had a high BABIP, but I had no idea it was the highest in history. Once he told me, it wasn’t like I was coming back to the dugout thinking, ‘Man, I think I’m having some bad luck.’ It was actually on paper, as a stat.” — Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher, January 2021

“Always trying to hit the ball way out in front is a recipe for a lot of strikeouts. Yeah, you’re going to hit some home runs, but you’re so susceptible to being pitched to that you limit the times in a game that you can truly do damage. You’re limited to the type of pitchers you can hit and the type of pitches you can hit.” — Dave Magadan, Colorado Rockies hitting coach, January 2021

“The guy that probably had the most power was actually Dean Palmer. He could hit a baseball a long ways. But Cecil… what he did was just incredible. And a lot of my home runs were with the bases empty, because I usually hit behind him, and he’d cleared them all. I hit with the bases empty a lot.” — Mickey Tettleton, 1980s-1990s slugger, January 2021

“An individual with a much lower spin rate, but a spin direction closer to 12:00 — high spin efficiency/active spin — can achieve significantly higher vertical break values than an individual who generates a much higher spin rate, but a spin direction further from 12:00.” — Eric Jagers, Cincinnati Reds assistant pitching coach, January 2021 Read the rest of this entry »

Joey Wiemer began tapping into his tools this year. Explosive but raw coming into his first full professional season, the 2020 fourth-round pick out of the University of Cincinnati slashed .293/.403/.556 and went deep 27 times in 472 plate appearances between Low-A Carolina and High-A Wisconsin. Moreover, he belied his 6-foot-5, 230-pound frame by swiping 30 bases in 36 attempts. It came as little surprise when the Milwaukee Brewers named the 22-year-old outfielder their 2021 Minor League Player of the Year.

Wiemer — No. 2 on our just released Brewers Top Prospects list — discussed his breakout in the penultimate week of the Arizona Fall League season, where he was playing for the Salt River Rafters.

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David Laurila: You exceeded most expectations in your first professional season. What changes have you made as a hitter?

Joey Wiemer: “A lot of it has been cutting down on my head movement and getting lower in my stance. My thought process was mostly the same. Swing-wise, my hands… I’m really athletic when I hit, so I’m trying to think mechanically, as opposed to just competing. That’s in my cage work. In the game, it’s about trusting what I do in the cage.”

Laurila: Can you elaborate on your stance?

Wiemer: “I’m lower and more widened out, with more of a toe-tap as opposed to the big leg kick I used to have. I started working on that in independent ball, during the 2020 season. I went out and played some indie ball so I could get some live ABs, get some reads, to really feel that change. And honestly, my swing is quicker now than it was at the start of this year. I have more hand movement, preload. I feel like everything is more direct now.”

Laurila: Whose suggestion was it get wider? Read the rest of this entry »

The Padres announced Bob Melvin’s 2022 coaching staff earlier this week, and the group is at once progressive and diverse. Notable among the new hires is 27-year-old hitting coach Michael Brdar, who comes to San Diego via the San Francisco Giants organization. Asked about him in Zoom session, Melvin — himself a newcomer to the club — told reporters that Brdar “Talks a language that I don’t talk; he talks the language that younger hitters are talking now.”

Clarifying that he does “talk it a little bit,” the 60-year-old, three-time Manager of the Year went on to say that “You need to be able reach these guys and speak their language.”

Following up on the question posed by MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell, I asked Melvin how much the hiring process has changed since he first joined the managerial ranks in 2003.

“I came here from Oakland, where we did everything pretty much in-house,” said Melvin, whose 11-year tenure with the A’s followed managerial stints in Seattle and Arizona. “We would look in-house to begin with; that was just kind of how the organization flowed. This was a little bit of a different process, knowing we were probably going to bring some guys in from the outside. We wanted it to be diverse in age, we wanted it to be diverse in thinking. Read the rest of this entry »

This year I have the honor of casting a Hall of Fame ballot for the second time. Jay Jaffe does as well — we both joined the BBWAA in 2010 while colleagues at Baseball Prospectus — and as Jay stated in Friday’s episode of FanGraphs Audio, the exercise is every bit as challenging as it was 12 months ago. Defining worthiness is inherently subjective, and that would be the case even without PEDs and the character clause complicating matters. As it turned out, the latter of those two conundrum-inducers prompted me to drop one of last year’s selections. More on that in a moment.

As many of you have seen from Ryan Thibodaux’s invaluable Ballot Tracker, a number of voters remain stingy with their checkmarks. And they have that right. If you feel that only a small handful of the eligibles are worthy, you should vote accordingly. (Submitting a blank ballot is another thing entirely; the idea that no player in a given year meets acceptable standards is questionable at best.)

I am, unapologetically, “a Big-Hall” guy. For me, one of the biggest dilemmas has been deciding which of a dozen-plus deserving candidates will be excluded. Last year, Todd Helton and Jeff Kent stood out as players I agonized over and ultimately didn’t cast ballots for. The was especially true for Helton; I determined almost immediately afterward that he would get a checkmark this year. He did, while Kent — purely because there wasn’t room for him on my ballot — did not.

All 10 of the players I voted for a year ago returned to the ballot — and a pair of high-profile candidates were added — which accentuated the dilemma. By adding Helton, and one or two of the newcomers, I was going to have to drop multiple players whose numbers and impact on the game had not changed one iota. Read the rest of this entry »

Logan Davidson struggled to find himself in 2021. Two years after being drafted 29th overall by the Oakland A’s out of Clemson University, the 23-year-old shortstop slashed a paltry .212/.307/.313 with 155 strikeouts in 515 plate appearances with the Double-A Midland RockHounds. Continuity proved elusive. In almost chameleon-like fashion, Davidson went back to the drawing board time and again over the course of the season.

His quest to discover a productive stroke continued in the Arizona Fall League, where he put up numbers far more pleasing to the eye. Playing for the Mesa Solar Sox, Davidson logged a .274/.400/.411 slash line in 90 plate appearances. Promising as that was, punch-outs remained a problem. The switch-hitting infielder went down on strikes 33 times.

In a refreshingly candid interview during the penultimate week of the Arizona Fall League season, Davidson — No. 24 on our newly-released Oakland A’s Top Prospects list — discussed his 2021 struggles.

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David Laurila: To start, how do you identify as a hitter?

Logan Davidson: “I’d say I’m gap-to-gap, a line-drive guy who is going to run into some power. I’m working on the strikeouts. Obviously, I’m a pretty big swing-and-miss guy right now. I’m trying to get a solid approach, seeing balls up and hitting pitches that I’m supposed to hit, and taking pitches you’re supposed to take. That’s pretty much it: a gap-to-gap guy who is working on cutting down the strikeouts.”

Laurila: Why have there been so many strikeouts? Read the rest of this entry »

Caleb Kilian made giant strides in 2021. Unranked as a San Francisco prospect at season’s start, the 24-year-old right-hander now profiles as one of the most promising arms in the Chicago Cubs system. The NL Central club acquired Kilian, along with outfielder Alexander Canario, in exchange for free-agent-to-be Kris Bryant at the July trade deadline.

The degree to which Kilian stepped up this year is apparent in his numbers. Pitching almost exclusively at the Double-A level, the 2019 eighth-round pick out of Texas Tech University put up a 2.42 ERA while allowing just 75 hits and 13 walks in 101 1/3 innings. Augmenting his signature plus command with increased velocity and an improved pitch mix, he punched out 112 batters.

Kilian’s repertoire revolves around a sinker and a cutter, the latter of which he began developing in the rookie-level Arizona League.

“It was early, almost right when I got there,” explained Kilian, who had pitched in a pair of College World Series with the Red Raiders. “When I got to pro ball, my slider was kind of just a worse curveball, so the Giants recommended a cutter. That way, I’d basically be throwing what felt like a fastball — same arm speed, just a different grip. I supinate with the ball anyway, so by turning it in my hand, it kind of just comes out naturally with cut.” Read the rest of this entry »